Do GWAS-Identified Risk Variants for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Influence Overall Patient Survival and Disease Progression?

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common leukemia among adults worldwide. Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have uncovered the germline genetic component underlying CLL susceptibility, the potential use of GWAS-identified risk variants to predict disease progression and patient survival remains unexplored. Here, we evaluated whether 41 GWAS-identified risk variants for CLL could influence overall survival (OS) and disease progression, defined as time to first treatment (TTFT) in a cohort of 1039 CLL cases ascertained through the CRuCIAL consortium. Although this is the largest study assessing the effect of GWAS-identified susceptibility variants for CLL on OS, we only found a weak association of ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with OS (p < 0.05) that did not remain significant after correction for multiple testing. In line with these results, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) built with these SNPs in the CRuCIAL cohort showed a modest association with OS and a low capacity to predict patient survival, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.57. Similarly, seven SNPs were associated with TTFT (p < 0.05); however, these did not reach the multiple testing significance threshold, and the meta-analysis with previous published data did not confirm any of the associations. As expected, PRSs built with these SNPs showed reduced accuracy in prediction of disease progression (AUROC = 0.62). These results suggest that susceptibility variants for CLL do not impact overall survival and disease progression in CLL patients.

Lymphocyte Doubling Time As A Key Prognostic Factor To Predict Time To First Treatment In Early-Stage Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

The prognostic role of lymphocyte doubling time (LDT) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) was recognized more than three decades ago when the neoplastic clone’s biology was almost unknown. LDT was defined as the time needed for the peripheral blood lymphocyte count to double the of the initial observed value. Herein, the LDT prognostic value for time to first treatment (TTFT) was explored in our prospective O-CLL cohort and validated in in two additional CLL cohorts. Specifically, newly diagnosed Binet stage A CLL patients from 40 Italian Institutions, representative of the whole country, were prospectively enrolled into the O-CLL1-GISL protocol (clinicaltrial.gov identifier: NCT00917540). Two independent cohorts of newly diagnosed CLL patients recruited respectively at the Division of Hematology in Novara, Italy, and at the Hospital Clinic in Barcelona, Spain, were utilized as validation cohorts. In the training cohort, TTFT of patients with LDT >12 months was significantly longer related to those with a shorter LDT. At Cox multivariate regression model, LDT ≤ 12 months maintained a significant independent relationship with shorter TTFT along with IGHV unmutated (IGHVunmut) status, 11q and 17p deletions, elevated β2M, Rai stage I-II, and NOTCH1 mutations. Based on these statistics, two regression models were constructed including the same prognostic factors with or without the LDT. The model with the LTD provided a significantly better data fitting (χ² = 8.25, P=0.0041). The risk prediction developed including LDT had better prognostic accuracy than those without LDT. Moreover, the Harrell’C index for the scores including LDT were higher than those without LDT, although the accepted 0.70 threshold exceeded in both cases. These findings were also confirmed when the same analysis was carried out according to TTFT’s explained variation. When data were further analyzed based on the combination between LDT and IGHV mutational status in the training and validation cohorts, IGHVunmut and LDT>12months group showed a predominant prognostic role over IGHVmut LTD ≤ 12 months (P=0.006) in the O-CLL validation cohort. However, this predominance was of borden-line significance (P=0.06) in the Barcelona group, while the significant prognostic impact was definitely lost in the Novara group. Overall, in this study, we demonstrated that LDT could be re-utilized together with the more sophisticated prognostic factors to manage the follow-up plans for Binet stage A CLL patients.

Validation of the Alternative International Prognostic Score-E (AIPS-E): Analysis of Binet stage A chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients enrolled into the O-CLL1-GISL protocol

OBJECTIVES

To validate the predictive value on time to first treatment (TTFT) of AIPS-E and IPS-E evaluated in an independent cohort of newly diagnosed and non-referred Binet stage A CLL patients enrolled in the O-CLL1-GISL protocol (clinicaltrial.gov identifier: NCT00917540).

METHODS

A cohort of 292 newly diagnosed Binet A CLL cases has been enrolled in the study. Patients from several Italian Institutions were prospectively enrolled within 12 months of diagnosis into the O-CLL1-GISL protocol.

RESULTS

The majority of patients were male (62%); median age was 60.4 years, 102 cases (34.9%) showed unmutated IGHV genes, 8 cases (2.8) the presence of del(11q)/del(17p), 142 cases (48.6%) the presence of palpable lymph nodes and 146 cases (50%) and ALC > 15 × 10⁹ /l. After a median follow-up of 7.2 years, 130 patients underwent treatment. According to the AIPS-E, 96 patients were classified as low-risk, 128 as intermediate-risk, and 68 as high-risk. These groups showed significant differences in terms of TTFT. The C-statistic was 0.71 (P < .0001) for predicting TTFT. According to IPS-E, 77 patients were classified as low-risk, 135 as intermediate-risk, and 80 as high-risk. These groups showed significant differences in terms of TTFT. The C-statistic was 0.705 (P < .0001) for predicting TTFT.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data confirm an accurate prognostic utility of both AIPS-E and IPS-E at the individual patient level. These data may be useful for a precise stratification of early-stage patients.

Mean Platelet Volume Has Prognostic Value in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Purpose

Mean platelet volume (MPV) is a readily accessible and commonly tested hematological indicator. Recent studies revealed a significant impact of MPV on the course and prognosis of many diseases, including some types of cancer, as well as on the incidence of atrial fibrillation and bleeding. The study aimed to perform a retrospective analysis of MPV in terms of time to first treatment (TTFT) and to determine its prognostic value in the group of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Moreover, the study includes a retrospective analysis of platelet parameters in patients treated with ibrutinib concerning bleeding and atrial fibrillation.

Patients and Methods

The study included 523 patients with CLL, for 344 the most important cytogenetic aberrations were reported. The Mann–Whitney, Kruskal–Wallis, Kaplan–Meier, chi-squared, log‑rank tests and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze collected data.

Results

The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to identify optimal cut-off value for MPV. The analysis of survival curves showed that in the group of patients with higher values of MPV TTFT was significantly longer than in the group with lower MPV (17.9 vs 36 months, p=0.0015, cut-off value for MPV= 10.4 fl). In multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model low MPV, the presence of del11q and del13q provided independent prognostic value for TTFT (HR=0.69, 95%-CI, 0.5293 to 0.9081; p=0.0078; HR=1.76, 95%-CI, 1.3000 to 2.3882, p=0.0003, HR=0.74, 95%-Cl, 0.5674 to 0.9588, p=0.0229, respectively). In the group treated with ibrutinib, 59 patients had no significant correlation between MPV level and the incidence of therapy complications, although in the group of patients with low MPV there was a tendency for more frequent occurrence of atrial fibrillation (p=0.259).

Conclusion

Low MPV values are associated with unfavorable prognosis and might represent a novel, independent prognostic factor in CLL.

Do biologic parameters affect the time to first treatment of clinical monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis and chronic lymphocytic leukemia Rai stage 0? Results of a prospective analysis

BACKGROUND

We investigated the clinical relevance of classic and new prognostic markers, immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable (IGHV) gene mutational status, and chromosomal abnormalities in clinical monoclonal B lymphocytosis (cMBL) compared with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) Rai stage 0.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analyzed the clinical outcomes in terms of the time to the first treatment (TTFT) of a prospective cohort, including 125 patients with cMBL and 197 patients with CLL Rai stage 0.

RESULTS

In the overall patient population, prognostic parameters such as IGHV gene mutational status (P < .0001), CD38 expression (P < .0001), 70-kDa zeta-associated protein (ZAP-70) expression (P < .0001), and cytogenetic abnormalities (P = .01) predicted for TTFT on univariate analysis. IGHV gene identity was significant on multivariate analysis (P < .0001), regardless of the B-cell cutoff (5.0 or 10 × 10(9) B cells/L). A prognostic stratification using the combination of IGHV mutational status and absolute B-cell lymphocytosis identified 3 different groups that were significantly different with respect to the TTFT (P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

In the present series of patients with cMBL and CLL Rai stage 0, we have confirmed that IGHV mutation status appeared to be the best predictor of TTFT. In addition, when associated with the B-cell count, IGHV mutational status might help to better stratify patients into more precise subgroups.