Comparison of two modeling frameworks for unifying the toxicant-affected percentage of aquatic species, individuals, and time into a single metric

To address time-variable exposure to toxicants, this work compares simple and complex approaches to unifying the affected percentage of aquatic species, individuals, and time into a single metric. The simple approach uses only information on the probability distribution of exposure concentrations, a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) of chronic values, and the distribution of tolerance within species. The complex approach involves time-series simulation with a kinetics-based toxicity model coupled with a population model for each species in the SSD. Unlike the simple approach, this takes into account the exposure duration needed to elicit toxicity, differing sensitivities of life stages within a species, differing effects on survival versus reproduction, and species differences in their model population's response to press disturbance and recovery time from pulse disturbance. The probability distribution approach indicated that, for SSD assemblages challenged with moderately variable toxicant concentrations exceeding the aquatic life criterion a few percent of the time, most of the predicted aggregate effect is usually experienced by the most sensitive 10% of species and individuals. The kinetics-population simulation approach indicated that, for time-variable exposure (but not for constant exposure), the severity of the population effect depended on the type of effect and life stage affected. The results from both approaches suggest that moderately time-variable exposure is best viewed as a fluctuating press disturbance, not as a sporadic pulse disturbance. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1364-1374. © 2021 SETAC.

Application of General Unified Threshold Models of Survival Models for Regulatory Aquatic Pesticide Risk Assessment Illustrated with an Example for the Insecticide Chlorpyrifos

Mathematical models within the General Unified Threshold models of Survival (GUTS) framework translate time-variable chemical exposure information into expected survival of animals. The GUTS models are species and compound specific and explicitly describe the internal exposure dynamics in an organism (toxicokinetics) and the related damage and effect dynamics (toxicodynamics), thereby connecting the external exposure concentration dynamics with the simulated mortality or immobility over time. In a recent scientific opinion on toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the GUTS modeling framework was considered ready for use in the aquatic risk assessment for pesticides and aquatic fauna. The GUTS models are suggested for use in risk assessment, if they are sufficiently validated for a specific substance-species combination. This paper aims to illustrate how they can be used in the regulatory environmental risk assessment for pesticides for a specific type of refinement, that is, when risks are triggered by lower tiers in acute as well as in chronic risk assessment and mortality or immobility is the critical endpoint. This approach involves the evaluation of time-variable exposure regimes in a so-called "Tier-2C" assessment. The insecticide chlorpyrifos was selected as an example compound because a large data set was available. The GUTS models for 13 different freshwater arthropods and 8 different theoretical aquatic exposure profiles were used to calculate a series of GUTS-based risk estimates, including exposure profile-specific multiplication factors leading to 50% mortality or immobility at the end of the tested profile (LP50/EP50) as "margins of safety." To put the use of GUTS models within the tiered aquatic risk assessment into perspective, GUTS models for the 13 aquatic arthropods were also used to predict the environmental risks of a measured chlorpyrifos exposure profile from an experimental ditch study (Tier-3 approach), and the results are discussed in the context of calibration of the tiered approach. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:243-258. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Calibration and validation of toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models for three neonicotinoids and some aquatic macroinvertebrates

Exposure patterns in ecotoxicological experiments often do not match the exposure profiles for which a risk assessment needs to be performed. This limitation can be overcome by using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models for the prediction of effects under time-variable exposure. For the use of TKTD models in the environmental risk assessment of chemicals, it is required to calibrate and validate the model for specific compound-species combinations. In this study, the survival of macroinvertebrates after exposure to the neonicotinoid insecticide was modelled using TKTD models from the General Unified Threshold models of Survival (GUTS) framework. The models were calibrated on existing survival data from acute or chronic tests under static exposure regime. Validation experiments were performed for two sets of species-compound combinations: one set focussed on multiple species sensitivity to a single compound: imidacloprid, and the other set on the effects of multiple compounds for a single species, i.e., the three neonicotinoid compounds imidacloprid, thiacloprid and thiamethoxam, on the survival of the mayfly Cloeon dipterum. The calibrated models were used to predict survival over time, including uncertainty ranges, for the different time-variable exposure profiles used in the validation experiments. From the comparison between observed and predicted survival, it appeared that the accuracy of the model predictions was acceptable for four of five tested species in the multiple species data set. For compounds such as neonicotinoids, which are known to have the potential to show increased toxicity under prolonged exposure, the calibration and validation of TKTD models for survival needs to be performed ideally by considering calibration data from both acute and chronic tests.

Mechanistic modelling of toxicokinetic processes within Myriophyllum spicatum

Effects of chemicals are, in most cases, caused by internal concentrations within organisms which rely on uptake and elimination kinetics. These processes might be key components for assessing the effects of time-variable exposure of chemicals which regularly occur in aquatic systems. However, the knowledge of toxicokinetic patterns caused by time-variable exposure is limited, and gaining such information is complex. In this work, a previously developed mechanistic growth model of Myriophyllum spicatum is coupled with a newly developed toxicokinetic part, providing a model that is able to predict uptake and elimination of chemicals, as well as distribution processes between plant compartments (leaves, stems, roots) of M. spicatum. It is shown, that toxicokinetic patterns, at least for most of the investigated chemicals, can be calculated in agreement with experimental observations, by only calibrating two chemical- specific parameters, the cuticular permeability and a plant/water partition coefficient. Through the model-based determination of the cuticular permeabilities of Isoproturon, Iofensulfuron, Fluridone, Imazamox and Penoxsulam, their toxicokinetic pattern can be described with the model approach. For the use of the model for predicting toxicokinetics of other chemicals, where experimental data is not available, equations are presented that are based on the log (P oct/wat) of a chemical and estimate parameters that are necessary to run the model. In general, a method is presented to analyze time-variable exposure of chemicals more in detail without conducting time and labour intensive experiments.