Depicting "the system": How structural racism and disenfranchisement in the United States can cause dynamics in community violence among males in urban black communities

BACKGROUND

A complex system of factors interacting across time shapes community violence. It is not well understood how features of persons, institutions and communities interact as a "system" to produce escalating community violence. We aimed to integrate theoretical and experiential knowledge among young African-American urban males to develop a concept model of key causal structures driving dynamics of community violence escalation over time in a context of historical racism.

METHODS

We analyzed three published sources (two documentary films and one ethnography) containing lived experience perspectives on community violence escalation among African American males in three U.S. cities experiencing civil unrest due to structural racism. Qualitative descriptive analysis identified features in three key thematic categories: racialized policies and practices, economic and social disenfranchisement, and intrapsychic factors. We used causal loop diagramming, a system dynamics method designed for depicting dynamic hypotheses about the system structure producing observed trends over time, to represent the dynamic relationships among identified individual and community variables.

RESULTS

The concept model contained key feedback structures capable of generating exponential growth in violence - providing detailed dynamic hypotheses about how violence can beget more violence ("violence escalation") within a community. Referred to as reinforcing feedback loops, these dynamics involved development of kill-or-be-killed norms, civil unrest emerging from racially oppressive policies, internalizing the code of the streets to seek outward displays of power, and processes that get one "stuck" or not able to break out of the system of violence.

CONCLUSIONS

Qualitative system dynamics methods offered an approach to uncover and hypothesize the complex, dynamic relationships between variables shaping violence escalation trends. The resulting causal loop diagram hypothesized dynamic mechanisms capable of creating and perpetuating racial disparities in community violence escalation, that can be tested in future research to inform action to break observed cycles of community violence.

Understanding the system dynamics of obesity-related behaviours in 10- to 14-year-old adolescents in Amsterdam from a multi-actor perspective

Introduction and Methods

To develop an understanding of the dynamics driving obesity-related behaviours in adolescents, we conducted systems-based analysis on a causal loop diagram (CLD) created from a multi-actor perspective, including academic researchers, adolescents and local stakeholders.

Results

The CLD contained 121 factors and 31 feedback loops. We identified six subsystems with their goals: (1) interaction between adolescents and the food environment, with profit maximisation as goal, (2) interaction between adolescents and the physical activity environment, with utility maximisation of outdoor spaces as goal, (3) interaction between adolescents and the online environment, with profit maximisation from technology use as goal, (4) interaction between adolescents, parenting and the wider socioeconomic environment, with a goal focused on individual parental responsibility, (5) interaction between healthcare professionals and families, with the goal resulting in treating obesity as an isolated problem, and (6) transition from childhood to adolescence, with the goal centring around adolescents' susceptibility to an environment that stimulates obesity-related behaviours.

Discussion

Analysis showed that inclusion of the researchers' and stakeholders' perspectives contributed to an understanding of how the system structure of an environment works. Integration of the adolescents' perspective enriched insights on how adolescents interact with that environment. The analysis further showed that the dynamics driving obesity-related behaviours are geared towards further reinforcing such behaviours.

Leveraging Systems Science to Promote the Implementation and Sustainability of Mental Health and Psychosocial Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

ABSTRACT

Advancements in global mental health implementation research have revealed promising strategies for improving access to evidence-based mental health care. These advancements have not translated, however, into a reduced prevalence of mental disorders. In this review we examine the relationships between determinants (i.e., barriers and facilitators) and outcomes of mental health services in low- and middle-income countries to identify opportunities for improving the population-level impact and sustainability of innovations in global mental health. We identified three key implementation and services outcomes that influenced the prevalence of mental disorders in the 56 included review articles: supply (access, implementation), demand (help seeking, utilization), and quality (effectiveness, quality of care) of mental health services. Determinants of these outcomes revealed seven themes: community stakeholder engagement; cultural relevance; stigma; human resource capacity; organization of services; governance, policy, and financing; and sociopolitical and community context. We developed a causal loop diagram to illustrate the relationships among these determinants and outcomes. The causal loop diagram revealed the central role of community stakeholder engagement in bridging implementation and patient outcomes, the importance of addressing stigma and social determinants of mental health, and the need to complement supply-side implementation strategies with approaches to equilibrate demand and improve the quality of services. Applying systems science methodologies to global mental health research presents an opportunity to examine the complex relationships among community and health system factors that influence implementation of evidence-based interventions in order to identify sustainable approaches to improve the population-level impact of mental health services in low- and middle-income countries.

Applying a Health Access Framework to Understand and Address Food Insecurity

The prevalence of food insecurity (FI) in United States households has fluctuated between 10% and 15% for the past two decades, well above the Healthy People 2030 goal. FI is associated with increased use of healthcare services and the prevalence of multiple health conditions. Our current efforts to address FI may be limited by measures that lack granularity, timeliness, and consideration of larger food access barriers (e.g., availability of food providers and lack of knowledge regarding where to obtain food). If the Healthy People 2030 goal of reducing FI to 6% is to be met, we need better and faster methods for monitoring and tracking FI in order to produce timely interventions. In this paper, we review key contributors of FI from an access barrier perspective, investigate the limitations of current FI measures, and explore how data from one nonprofit organization may enhance our understanding of FI and facilitate access to resources at the local level. We also propose a conceptual framework illustrating how nonprofit organizations may play an important role in understanding and addressing FI and its intertwined social needs, such as housing and healthcare problems.

A Systems Approach to Identify Factors Influencing Participation in Two Tribally-Administered WIC Programs

Native American populations experience highly disproportionate rates of poor maternal-child health outcomes. The WIC program aims to safeguard health by providing greater access to nutritious foods, but for reasons not well understood, participation in many tribally-administered WIC programs has declined to a greater extent compared to the national average decline in participation over the last decade. This study aims to examine influences on WIC participation from a systems perspective in two tribally-administered WIC programs. In-depth interviews were conducted with WIC-eligible individuals, WIC staff, tribal administrators, and store owners. Interview transcripts underwent qualitative coding, followed by identifying causal relationships between codes and iterative refining of relationships using Kumu. Two community-specific causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were developed and compared. Findings from interviews in the Midwest yielded a total of 22 factors connected through 5 feedback loops, and in the Southwest a total of 26 factors connected through 7 feedback loops, resulting in three overlapping themes: Reservation and Food Store Infrastructure, WIC Staff Interactions and Integration with the Community, and State-level Administration and Bureaucracy. This study demonstrates the value of a systems approach to explore interconnected barriers and facilitators that can inform future strategies and mitigate declines in WIC participation.

Assessing readiness to implement routine immunization among patent and proprietary medicine vendors in Kano, Nigeria: a theory-informed cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Patent and proprietary medicine vendors (PPMVs) are widespread in communities and can potentially be used to expand access to routine immunization especially in underserved areas. In this study, we aimed to assess their readiness to implement routine immunization in Kano, Nigeria and identify factors associated with it.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of PPMVs aged 18 years and above in Kano metropolis, Nigeria, using cluster sampling technique. A 10-item Likert scale-based measure was used to estimate readiness score. The relationship between selected factors and readiness score was examined using multilevel linear modeling technique.

RESULTS

A total of 455 PPMVs with median age of 36 years participated in the study. The median raw score for readiness was 4.7 (IQR: 4.3 - 4-8) (maximum obtainable was 5). The mean readiness score (obtained through factor analysis) was 5.28 (SD: 0.58). Readiness score was associated with factors such as knowledge of immunization and task demand, engagement by other public health programs among others.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the feasibility of measuring the level of readiness for implementing routine immunization among PPMVs. Given the high level of readiness, policy makers should consider the possibility of expanding access to immunization through PPMVs.

Understanding Urban Green Space Usage through Systems Thinking: A Case Study in Thamesmead, London

Urban green spaces provide environmental, economic, societal and health benefits to cities. However, policy and planning interventions aiming to improve usage have often led to unintended consequences, including, in some circumstances, an actual decline in usage. Previous research has identified factors influencing the use of urban green space, more often with a focus on the 'quality' and physical features of the space, rather than on the broader social factors. This study aims to unpack the complexity of factors that influence the use of urban green space through the application of Systems Thinking. A qualitative mixed-method approach integrating System Dynamics with rapid ethnography was adopted to elicit the views of local residents in Thamesmead, London. A thematic analysis of interviews was undertaken to systematically map the causal relations between factors, which were compared to wider stakeholders' views. Our findings highlight the relevance of dynamics and social influences on the use of green space, which include social interactions and stewardship, health conditions, availability of services and amenities. These are factors that are underexplored in the literature and, sometimes, overlooked in urban green space policy by decision-makers. We infer that attendance of urban green spaces requires time, which may be occupied in other practices determined by local conditions and needs. Expanding the spatial and temporal boundaries of investigation, wider than debates on 'quality', should, in our view, increase the chances of identifying critical influences and foster an increased use of green space.

Systems thinking in the context of road safety: Can systems tools help us realize a true "Safe Systems" approach?

Purpose of review

Road traffic injuries are one of the leading causes of death in the U.S. and globally. We introduce the Safe Systems approach as a promising paradigm for road safety practice and describe how systems thinking tools can help bridge the gap between the current status quo and a Safe Systems approach.

Recent findings

Systems thinking tools can help us align with a Safe Systems approach by identifying latent risks in the transportation system, examining factors that coalesce to produce high travel speeds and kinetic energy transfer, and supporting safety prioritization through goal alignment.

Summary

The Safe Systems approach represents a significant change in the way we have historically designed transportation systems; it puts safety at the forefront and calls for designing a system that accounts for human fallibility. Operationalizing holistic Safe Systems concepts may be difficult, but systems thinking tools can help. Systems thinking tools provide a common language for individuals from diverse disciplines and sectors to express their unique understanding of the interconnected factors shaping road safety problems and support discussions about potential solutions that align with a Safe Systems approach.

Developing and Evaluating a Data-Driven and Systems Approach to Health Promotion Among Vocational Students: Protocol for the Data Health Study

BACKGROUND

Vocational school students exhibit significant risk behaviors in terms of poor diet, frequent use of nicotine products, inadequate fruit and vegetable intake, low levels of physical activity, and poor mental health. This makes vocational students vulnerable to the development of noncommunicable diseases. Therefore, effective health promotion programs targeting vocational students are required.

OBJECTIVE

The Danish study "Data-driven and Systems Approach to Health Promotion Among Vocational Students" (Data Health) aims to develop, implement, and evaluate a systems approach to support vocational schools, municipalities, and local communities in implementing locally relevant health promotion actions among and for vocational students. This paper describes the Data Health program and how implementation and preliminary effectiveness will be evaluated.

METHODS

The Data Health program offers an iterative 5-step process to develop changes in the systems that shape health behavior and well-being among vocational students. The program will be implemented and evaluated in 8 Danish vocational schools in 4 municipalities. The implementation of the process and actions will be explored using a systems-based evaluation design that assesses contextual differences and the mechanisms through which the program leads to changes in the systems. Preliminary effectiveness at the individual level (students' self-reported health behavior and well-being) and organizational level (school organizational readiness reported by school staff) will be assessed using a quasi-experimental design, and cross-sectional data will be collected at all 8 schools simultaneously 4 times during the 2-year study period.

RESULTS

This study was launched in 2021, and data collection is expected to be completed in June 2024. The first results are expected to be submitted for publication in January 2024.

CONCLUSIONS

We expect that the Data Health study will make significant contributions to complex intervention research by contributing to the paucity of research studies that have used systems approaches in school settings. The study will also provide evidence of successful elements for systems change and effectiveness to determine whether a national scale-up can be recommended.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05308459; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05308459.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/52571.

Taking a systems approach to explore the impacts and outcomes of a research and evaluation capacity building partnership: a protocol

INTRODUCTION

Partnership models that bring researchers, policymakers and service providers closer together are gaining traction as a strategy to improve public health practice. Yet, there is little evidence of how these models work, or indeed if they do work. The Sexual Health and Blood-borne Virus Applied Research and Evaluation Network (SiREN) is one such model. SiREN is a partnership between researchers, policymakers and service providers that aims to develop the research and evaluation capacity and evidence-informed decision making capability of professionals working to address sexual health and bloodborne virus issues in Western Australia. This study will use a systems approach to identify the mechanisms of action, impacts and outcomes of SiREN and inform the development of evaluation tools.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Data will be collected from organisational documents, surveys, in-depth interviews and a workshop. It will be analysed using a complex adaptive systems lens and findings will be used to inform the development of a type of qualitative systems model called a causal loop diagram. The causal loop diagram will illustrate the: contextual factors influencing engagement; mechanisms of action; and impacts and outcomes of SiREN. Evaluation tools will then be developed that can be used to assess the indicators identified in the causal loop diagram.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained from the Curtin University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number: HRE2017-0090). Participants will be free to withdraw from the study at any point and confidentiality will be maintained by de-identifying participant responses in any published or shared data. The findings from this study will be shared in conference presentations, reports, peer-reviewed journals and online through websites and social media.

Strengthening a Weak Link: Transparency of Causal Loop Diagrams, Current State and Recommendation

Transparency is a critical aspect of systems science. While transparency of quantitative models has been assessed, transparency of their qualitative structures has been less scrutinized. We assess the transparency of causal loop diagrams (CLDs), a key qualitative visualization tool in system dynamics. We evaluate System Dynamics Review (SDR) publications and a sample of most-cited comparable articles in other journals. We assess the inclusion of a plain language methods statement, overall discernibility of the methods, and identification of causal link sources. Reviewing 72 articles (SDR: 36; other journals: 36), only 44%, 38%, and 25% fully satisfy each criterion, respectively. SDR articles are characterized by higher transparency in the clarity of CLD development method and communication of causal link sources, yet the potential for enhancement is evident. We provide specific recommendations to increase the transparency of CLDs. Transparent reporting benefits original research authors, future expansion of CLDs, and the systems science community.

Interactions of Factors Related to the Stunting Reduction Program in Indonesia: A Case Study in Ende District

Previous stunting-related studies focus more on causes or determinants of stunting. Little is known about factors contributing to the success of stunting reduction programs. This study aims to fill those gaps using a case study from Ende District, Province of Nusa Tenggara Timur, Indonesia. A group model-building workshop with stunting-related stakeholders was conducted in November 2021. The system dynamic approach in the form of a causal loop diagram was used. Five variables related to the stunting reduction program were included in the analysis: the budget for the stunting reduction program; stunting-related stakeholder's cooperation and coordination; sufficient water supply; the ability of the related stakeholders to execute the program; and water, sanitation, and hygiene-related behavior. We found that the budget for the program and the cooperation and coordination between stakeholders were the most influential variables in the system. The feedback loop between these 2 variables was also the most prominent in the system, suggesting that sufficient funding and strong collaboration between stakeholders could lead to successful stunting reduction programs. Finally, this study implies that the stunting reduction programs in developing countries should be seen holistically and improvement should be conducted in all aspects, including financial, institutional, environmental, technical, and social.

Factors impacting antimicrobial resistance in the South East Asian food system and potential places to intervene: A participatory, one health study

Background

With AMU projected to increase, South East Asia (SEA) is at high risk of experiencing disproportionate health, social, and economic burdens due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Our objective was to identify factors influencing AMR in SEA's food system and places for intervention by integrating the perspectives of experts from the region to inform policy and management decisions.

Materials and methods

We conducted two 6.5 h workshops and two 90-min interviews involving 18 AMR and other disciplinary experts from human, animal, and environment sectors who brainstormed the factors influencing AMR and identified leverage points (places) for intervention. Transcripts and workshop materials were coded for factors and their connections and transcribed into a causal loop diagram (CLD). Thematic analysis described AMR dynamics in SEA's food system and leverage points for intervention. The CLD and themes were confirmed via participant feedback.

Results

Participants constructed a CLD of AMR in the SEA food system that contained 98 factors interlinked by 362 connections. CLD factors reflected eight sub-areas of the SEA food system (e.g., government). Seven themes [e.g., antimicrobial and pesticide use and AMR spread (n = 40 quotes)], six "overarching factors" that impact the entire AMR system [e.g., the drive to survive (n = 12 quotes)], and 10 places for intervention that target CLD factors (n = 5) and overarching factors (n = 2) emerged from workshop discussions.

Conclusion

The participant derived CLD of factors influencing AMR in the SEA food system demonstrates that AMR is a product of numerous interlinked actions taken across the One Health spectrum and that finding solutions is no simple task. Developing the model enabled the identification of potentially promising leverage points across human, animal, and environment sectors that, if comprehensively targeted using multi-pronged interventions, could evoke system wide changes that mitigate AMR. Even targeting some leverage points for intervention, such as increasing investments in research and capacity building, and setting and enforcing regulations to control antimicrobial supply, demand, and use could, in turn, shift mindsets that lead to changes in more difficult to alter leverage points, such as redefining the profit-driven intent that drives system behavior in ways that transform AMU and sustainably mitigate AMR.

A system science perspective on burn-out: development of an expert-based causal loop diagram

Introduction

Burn-out leads to reduced worker well-being, long-term absenteeism, and high costs for employers and society. Determinants at different levels may affect burn-out in an interrelated and dynamic manner. The aim of the present study was to apply a broader systems perspective by exploring and visualizing the complex system of determinants at different levels (living conditions, working conditions, and societal developments) underlying the prevalence of burn-out in the Netherlands.

Methods

During three group model building (GMB) sessions with in total eight experts on workers' mental health, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was developed and relevant feedback loops were identified. For the selection of determinants to be included in the CLD a recently published overview of determinants on burn-out at different levels was used. Experts could also add factors that were not listed in the overview.

Results

The final CLD consists of 20 factors and depicts a central position of working conditions. Societal developments (e.g., access to mental health care, size of the working population, rougher social climate, etc.) were mostly located at the outside of the CLD and barely integrated in feedback loops. Several reinforcing feedback loops resulting in an increase of the prevalence of burn-out were identified in which the factors (very) high workload, imbalance between work and private life, and insufficient recovery time play an important role. Also, several balancing loops were found that visualize the crucial role of functional support from supervisors to prevent burn-out among workers.

Discussion

Applying a broader systems perspective, including determinants at different levels, offers new insights into dynamic feedback loops that contribute to the prevalence of burn-out. Supervisors, amongst others, have a considerable impact on the system underlying the high prevalence of burn-out and may therefore contribute to its prevention. Even though societal developments were less integrated in feedback loops, they might be considered drivers of existing feedback loops. The results from this study confirm that determinants at various levels underly the prevalence of burn-out. To be able to address the diversity of determinants underlying a high prevalence of burn-out, a complex system approach can be helpful.

Utilizing Group Model Building to Identify Barriers and Facilitators of Hypertension Management in Primary Health Care, China

Purpose

Group Model Building (GMB) is a qualitative method that refers to a participatory process. This project aims to identify barriers and facilitators of hypertension management in primary health care in China, through which, the leverage point for intervention may be found.

Methods

The GMB was used to identify the factors influencing hypertension management. Graphs over time and causal loop diagram (CLD) were main tools of GMB. To propose the influencing factors, key stakeholders were invited to participate in a workshop. During the workshop, stakeholders were encouraged to plot the graphs over time of the variables about research issues and give a descriptive explanation. And based on this, a CLD was initially developed to establish a model of the interaction of factors. After the workshop, the research group further improved the CLD through repeated mutual discussions, and gave feedback to the participants. The Vensim PLE 9.0 software package was used to build CLD.

Results

A total of 14 key stakeholders were invited to participate in the workshop. Finally, 26 influencing factors were identified, which were divided into three dimensions, including the institutional, the community health workers (CHWs), and the patient level. And 5 reinforcing loops and 4 balancing loops were formed in the CLD. Promoting the building of the Medical Community/Regional Medical Association, implementing the family doctor contract service (FDCS), and enhancing the motivation of CHWs may be potential leverage points for hypertension management in China.

Conclusion

By using GMB, we have identified key factors in the management of hypertension in primary health care and provided comprehensive suggestions to overcome the obstacles.

Utilizing Causal Loop Diagramming to Explore a Research and Evaluation Capacity Building Partnership

The capacity to engage in research, evaluation and evidence-informed decision-making supports effective public health policy and practice. Little is known about partnership-based approaches that aim to build capacity across a system or how to evaluate them. This study examines the impacts of a research and evaluation capacity building partnership called the Western Australian Sexual Health and Blood-borne Virus Applied Research and Evaluation Network (hereafter, SiREN). SiREN aims to strengthen capacity across a system of clinical and medical services and government and non-government organizations. These organizations are connected through their shared aim of preventing and managing sexually transmissible infections and blood-borne viruses. To examine SiREN, systems concepts and methods were used. Data were collected from SiREN organizational documents (n = 42), a survey tool (n = 104), in-depth interviews (n = 17), a workshop and three meetings with SiREN stakeholders and used to develop two causal loop diagrams. Findings show engagement with SiREN was influenced by a complex interplay of contextual (e.g., organizational capacity) and process (e.g., presence of trusting relationships) factors. SiREN contributed to system level changes, including increased resources for research and evaluation, the development of networks and partnerships that led to more efficient responses to emerging health issues, evidence sharing, and sustainable research and evaluation practice. The use of causal loop diagrams enabled the identification of key leverage points that SiREN can use for continuous improvement or evaluation. The focus on how contextual factors influenced SiREN's ability to create change provides valuable information for researchers, policymakers or practitioners seeking to develop a similar partnership.

Using systems modeling to facilitate undergraduate physiology student learning and retention of difficult concepts

Physiology concepts, such as acid-base balance, may be difficult for students to understand. Systems modeling, a cognitive tool, allows students to visualize their mental model of the problem space to enhance learning and retention. We performed a within-subjects three-period randomized control comparison of systems modeling versus written discussion activities in an undergraduate asynchronous online Anatomy and Physiology II course. Participants (n = 108) were randomized to groups with differing treatment orders across three course units: endocrine, immune, and acid-base balance. Participants demonstrated content understanding through either constructing systems modeling diagrams (M) or written discussion posts (W) in a MWM, MMW, or WMM sequence. For each of three units, student performance was assessed on 6 standardized multiple-choice questions embedded within a 45-question exam. The same 6 questions per unit, 18 questions in total, were again assessed on the 75-question final exam. The groups demonstrated no significant difference in performance in the endocrine unit exam [mean difference (MD) = -0.036]. However, the modeling group outperformed the writing group in the immune unit exam (MD = 0.209) and widened the gap in the acid-base balance unit exam (MD = 0.243). On the final exam, performance was again higher for the modeling group on acid-base balance content, as mean difference increased to 0.306 despite the final exam content for acid-base balance being significantly more difficult compared to other units [modeling: F(2) = 29.882, P < 0.001; writing: F(2) = 25.450, P < 0.001]. These results provide initial evidence that participation in systems modeling activities may enhance student learning of difficult physiology content as evidenced by improved multiple-choice question performance.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Physiology educators often intuitively utilize systems thinking and modeling while teaching difficult concepts. Guiding students in development of their own systems modeling skills by enhancing their visualization of their mental model of the problem space may improve performance on multiple-choice test questions.

Mature-Aged People in the Rural Health Workforce System: A Systems Modelling Approach

OBJECTIVE

The median age of people in rural areas is older than those living in metropolitan areas. Harnessing the potential of the mature-aged population in rural communities may present a uniquely sustainable approach to strengthening the rural health workforce system. The objective of this study was to map the rural health workforce system in Australia and identify the current and potential role of mature-aged people in the workforce system.

SETTING

Not applicable.

PARTICIPANTS

Not applicable.

DESIGN

Systems thinking, specifically causal loop diagramming.

RESULTS

The causal loop diagram illustrates the interrelated variables in the rural health workforce system. It also illustrates that the potential contribution of mature-aged people living in rural communities has been overlooked in the strategies to address the rural workforce undersupply.

CONCLUSION

Health workforces in regional, rural and remote communities in Australia have experienced constant undersupply despite ongoing government and community effort. Novel approaches are required to determine potential strategies to harness the capacity of rural mature-aged people to strengthen the rural health workforce.

Prevention Adaptation of an Evidence-Based Treatment for Parents Involved With Child Welfare Who Use Substances

Background: Parental substance use, especially opioid misuse and/or methamphetamine use, is a key driver for recent increases in family involvement with child welfare and foster care placements in the United States. There is an urgent need for programs that prevent parental substance use disorders, yet few prevention programs exist that target parents' unique needs and strengths. Adapting evidence-based treatment approaches for prevention might be an efficient, effective way to address this gap. The current study informed the rigorous adaptation of an evidence-based treatment that supports families involved with child welfare due to substance use, Families Actively Improving Relationships (FAIR), to a prevention-oriented intervention: "PRE-FAIR." FAIR entails four treatment domains: substance use, parenting, mental health, and ancillary services (e.g., housing, medical care, and food). FAIR significantly improved parenting and reduced parental substance use in three rigorous treatment trials, but FAIR's effectiveness in preventing the initiation or escalation of opioid misuse and/or methamphetamine use is untested. To inform adaptation, particular attention was paid to operationalizing strategies underlying a key hypothesized mediator of successful parent outcomes-engagement. Methods: Graduated FAIR parents (n = 9) and FAIR administrators, clinical supervisors, and clinicians (n = 11) participated in semi-structured interviews. Content analysis was used to identify key variables driving FAIR engagement and parent outcomes. Causal loop diagramming, a qualitative systems science method, was employed to operationalize emergent themes, and describe how causal links between key variables interrelated dynamically over time. Results: Themes reinforced the value of FAIR's treatment domains for supporting parent's sobriety and parenting skills within a prevention orientation. Ancillary supports and strong relationships were particularly crucial for helping parents cope with stressors leading to substance use. Five engagement strategies were identified as essential to parent success: 24/7 clinician availability, in-person clinician advocacy, in-home delivery, strengths-based interactions, and urinalysis. Implications for PRE-FAIR engagement strategies and dosage were identified. Discussion: Traditional qualitative analyses and qualitative analyses based in systems science can inform rigorous adaptations of evidence-based treatment programs for prevention. Future research will explore additional required, fidelity-consistent prevention adaptations to FAIR, and the impact of PRE-FAIR on parental substance use and child welfare case outcomes.

The Perceptions and Use of Urban Neighborhood Parks Since the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Case Study in South Korea

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the stress of city dwellers is increasing, and some adapt to the pandemic by pursuing physical and psychological well-being in neighborhood parks. To improve the resilience of the social-ecological system against COVID-19, it is important to understand the mechanism of adaptation by examining the perception and use of neighborhood parks. The purpose of this study is to investigate users' perceptions and use of urban neighborhood parks since the outbreak of COVID-19 in South Korea using systems thinking. To verify the hypotheses about the relationship between variables involved in COVID-19 adaptive feedback, two research objectives were set. First, this study determined the causal structure leading to park visits using systems thinking. Second, the relationship between stress, motivation, and the frequency of visits to neighborhood parks was empirically verified. To conduct the research, the system of use and perceptions of parks were analyzed through a causal loop diagram to determine the feedback between psychological variables. Then, a survey was conducted to verify the relationship between stress, motivation for visits, and visit frequency, which are the major variables derived from the causal structure. A total of three feedback loops were derived in the first step, including a loop in which COVID-19 stress was relieved by visits to parks and a loop in which COVID-19 stress worsened due to crowding in parks. Finally, the relationship of stress leading to park visits was confirmed, and the empirical analysis showed that anger about contagion and social disconnection were linked as motives for park visits, and that park visits were mainly motivated by the desire to go out. The neighborhood park functions as an adaptive space for the stress of COVID-19 and will maintain its role as social distancing becomes more important to various socio-ecological changes. The strategies driven by the pandemic can be adapted in park planning to recover from stress and improve resilience.

Systems mapping of multilevel factors contributing to dental caries in adolescents

Dental caries is a prevalent chronic disease among adolescents. Caries activity increases significantly during adolescence due to an increase in susceptible tooth surfaces, immature permanent tooth enamel, independence in pursuing self-care, and a tendency toward poor diet and oral hygiene. Dental caries in permanent teeth is more prevalent among adolescents in low-income families and racial/ethnic minority groups, and these disparities in adolescent dental caries experience have persisted for decades. Several conceptual and data-driven models have proposed unidirectional mechanisms that contribute to the extant disparities in adolescent dental caries experience. Our objective, using a literature review, is to provide an overview of risk factors contributing to adolescent dental caries. Specifically, we map the interactive relationships of multilevel factors that influence dental caries among adolescents. Such interactive multilevel relationships more closely reflect the complex nature of dental caries experience among the adolescent population. The methods that we use are two-fold: (1) a literature review using PubMed and Cochrane databases to find contributing factors; and (2) the system dynamics approach for mapping feedback mechanisms underlying adolescent dental caries through causal loop diagramming. The results of this study, based on the review of 138 articles, identified individual, family and community-level factors and their interactions contributing to dental caries experience in adolescents. Our results also provide hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying persistence of dental caries among adolescents.

Conclusions

Our findings may contribute to a deeper understanding of the multilevel and interconnected factors that shape the persistence of dental caries experience among adolescents.

Implementation of Clinical Services for Adults with Obesity in Different Health Systems: A Scoping Review and Causal Loop Diagram

The medical needs of obesity have been underrecognized, though it has posed long-term and enormous challenges to global health. Correspondingly, clinical services for obesity are still uncommon and in their infancy across health systems. It is meaningful to sort out the implementation of such clinical services involving a multiplicity of factors to identify measures for service development, scaling-up and optimization. This study aims to generate a comprehensive understanding of key variables and factors in the utilization and delivery of clinical services for adult patients with obesity and their dynamic patterns and to explore viable options for improved implementation of such services in health systems. We conducted a scoping review of published articles in the database from the lens of system dynamics through causal loop diagramming. Based on the data obtained from the review, we employed the causal loop diagramming as a tool to capture the variables in the implementation of clinical obesity services and their causal relationships. Twenty-one studies were finally included in the review. Based on the evidence consolidated through the review, we developed a causal loop diagram containing 19 causal variables and 38 causal arrows in single directions centered around the service utilization and delivery in the clinical obesity service. The feedback loops revealed potential activation points to intervene to facilitate the service implementation, such as, promotion of obesity as a disease with medical needs and available clinical services, provision of obesity-specific medical education and training opportunities, and prioritization of obesity-specific procedures in clinical protocols. The possible intervention points identified through the causal loop analysis can facilitate the development, implementation, and optimization of clinical obesity services in health systems.

System Dynamics in Remote Monitoring Service for Cardiovascular Implantable Electronic Devices

This methodological paper describes how system dynamics was applied in evaluating the effect of remote monitoring (RM) of cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) workload on clinical resource utilization. The development of a causal loop diagram and a stock and flow diagram and the construction of the simulation model for comparison of an in-person clinic group and RM clinic group are described.

Mapping complex public health problems with causal loop diagrams

This paper presents causal loop diagrams (CLDs) as tools for studying complex public health problems like health inequality. These problems often involve feedback loops-a characteristic of complex systems not fully integrated into mainstream epidemiology. CLDs are conceptual models that visualize connections between system variables. They are commonly developed through literature reviews or participatory methods with stakeholder groups. These diagrams often uncover feedback loops among variables across scales (e.g. biological, psychological and social), facilitating cross-disciplinary insights. We illustrate their use through a case example involving the feedback loop between sleep problems and depressive symptoms. We outline a typical step-by-step process for developing CLDs in epidemiology. These steps are defining a specific problem, identifying the key system variables involved, mapping these variables and analysing the CLD to find new insights and possible intervention targets. Throughout this process, we suggest triangulating between diverse sources of evidence, including domain knowledge, scientific literature and empirical data. CLDs can also be evaluated to guide policy changes and future research by revealing knowledge gaps. Finally, CLDs may be iteratively refined as new evidence emerges. We advocate for more widespread use of complex systems tools, like CLDs, in epidemiology to better understand and address complex public health problems.

A Systems Thinking Approach to Tackle Antimicrobial Resistance

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a significant global health threat. Due to its complexity, holistic approaches focusing on the interconnected factors influencing AMR across One Health domains are necessary. This study adopts system dynamics with extensive stakeholder engagement to unravel feedback processes between factors driving AMR. Initial results indicate numerous feedback loops between AMR drivers, which are not restricted to healthcare settings alone. A simulation model will be built to test various One Health scenarios to support decision-making on mitigating AMR.