Optimal combinations of CSF biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline and clinical conversion in cognitively unimpaired participants and mild cognitive impairment patients: A multi-cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Our objective was determining the optimal combinations of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers for predicting disease progression in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other neurodegenerative diseases.

METHODS

We included 1,983 participants from three different cohorts with longitudinal cognitive and clinical data, and baseline CSF levels of Aβ42, Aβ40, phosphorylated tau at threonine-181 (p-tau), neurofilament light (NfL), neurogranin, α-synuclein, soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), YKL-40, S100b, and interleukin 6 (IL-6) (Elecsys NeuroToolKit).

RESULTS

Change of modified Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite (mPACC) in cognitively unimpaired (CU) was best predicted by p-tau/Aβ42 alone (R2 ≥ 0.31) or together with NfL (R2  = 0.25), while p-tau/Aβ42 (R2 ≥ 0.19) was sufficient to accurately predict change of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients. P-tau/Aβ42 (AUC ≥ 0.87) and p-tau/Aβ42 together with NfL (AUC ≥ 0.75) were the best predictors of conversion to AD and all-cause dementia, respectively.

DISCUSSION

P-tau/Aβ42 is sufficient for predicting progression in AD, with very high accuracy. Adding NfL improves the prediction of all-cause dementia conversion and cognitive decline.

Using an Overlapping Time Interval Strategy to Study Diagnostic Instability in Mild Cognitive Impairment Subtypes

(1) Background: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a diagnostic label in which stability is typically low. The aim of this study was to examine temporal changes in the diagnosis of MCI subtypes by using an overlapping-time strategy; (2) Methods: The study included 435 participants aged over 50 years with subjective cognitive complaints and who completed at least one follow-up evaluation. The probability of transition was estimated using Bayesian odds ratios; (3) Results: Within the different time intervals, the controls with subjective cognitive complaints represented the largest proportion of participants, followed by sda-MCI at baseline and in the first five intervals of the follow-up, but not in the last eight intervals. The odds ratios indicated higher odds of conversion to dementia in sda-MCI and mda-MCI groups relative to na-MCI (e.g., interval 9–15 months—sda-MCI OR = 9 and mda-MCI OR = 3.36; interval 27–33—sda-MCI OR = 16 and mda-MCI = 5.06; interval 42–48—sda-MCI OR = 8.16 and mda-MCI = 3.45; interval 45–51—sda-MCI OR = 3.31 and mda-MCI = 1); (4) Conclusions: Notable patterns of instability consistent with the current literature were observed. The limitations of a prospective approach in the study of MCI transitions are discussed.