BALAD and BALAD-2 predict survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a North American cohort study

BACKGROUND

The BALAD score and BALAD-2 class derived from bilirubin, albumin, AFP, AFP-L3, and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) are effective in predicting mortality in HCC, but have not been validated in North America.

METHODS

148 HCC patients from 2000 to 2015 who had all five biomarkers tested at diagnosis were included. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated.

RESULTS

75 patients died during a median follow-up of 21.9 months. 1-and 3-year survival rates were 70.8% and 47.6%. 114 (77%) had cirrhosis. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.24 (0.42-3.67), 1.79 (0.61-5.26), 2.83 (0.95-8.38), and 7.19 (2.26-22.91) for BALAD scores 1, 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD 0. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.25 (0.65-2.40), 1.75 (0.94-3.23), and 6.20 (3.29-11.68) for BALAD-2 classes 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD-2 class 1. A multivariate model incorporating maximal tumor diameter, tumor number, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and BALAD had HR of 1.43 (1.14-1.81) per increase of 1 BALAD score. A similar model with BALAD-2 had HR of 1.50 (1.18-1.90) per increase of 1 BALAD-2 class.

CONCLUSION

BALAD models at diagnosis can predict the survival of HCC patients in North America. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP reflect tumor progression and metastasis of HCC and distinguish the BALAD model from other predictive models.

Biomarker-based prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma: validation and extension of the BALAD model

BACKGROUND

The Japanese 'BALAD' model offers the first objective, biomarker-based, tool for assessment of prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma, but relies on dichotomisation of the constituent data, has not been externally validated, and cannot be applied to the individual patients.

METHODS

In this Japanese/UK collaboration, we replicated the original BALAD model on a UK cohort and then built a new model, BALAD-2, on the original raw Japanese data using variables in their continuous form. Regression analyses using flexible parametric models with fractional polynomials enabled fitting of appropriate baseline hazard functions and functional form of covariates. The resulting models were validated in the respective cohorts to measure the predictive performance.

RESULTS

The key prognostic features were confirmed to be Bilirubin and Albumin together with the serological cancer biomarkers, AFP-L3, AFP, and DCP. With appropriate recalibration, the model offered clinically relevant discrimination of prognosis in both the Japanese and UK data sets and accurately predicted patient-level survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The original BALAD model has been validated in an international setting. The refined BALAD-2 model permits estimation of patient-level survival in UK and Japanese cohorts.

High-sensitivity Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein assay predicts early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains poor because HCC is frequently diagnosed late. Therefore, regular surveillance has been recommended to detect HCC at the early stage when curative treatments can be applied. HCC biomarkers, including Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3), are widely used for surveillance in Japan. A newly developed immunoassay system measures AFP-L3 % with high sensitivity. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate clinical utility of high-sensitivity AFP-L3 (hs-AFP-L3) as a predictor of early stage HCC in surveillance at a single site.

METHODS

Of consecutive 2830 patients in the surveillance between 2000 and 2009, 104 HCC-developed and 104 non-HCC patients were selected by eligibility criteria and propensity score matching. Samples were obtained from the HCC patients who had blood drawn annually for 3 years prior to HCC diagnosis.

RESULTS

In the present study, hs-AFP-L3 was elevated 1 year prior to diagnosis in 34.3 % of patients. The survival rate of patients with the hs-AFP-L3 ≥ 7 % at 1 year prior to diagnosis was significantly lower than that of patients with hs-AFP-L3 < 7 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevation of hs-AFP-L3 was early predictive of development of HCC even at low AFP levels and in absence of ultrasound findings of suspicious HCC. The hs-AFP-L3 should be added to surveillance programs with US because elevated hs-AFP-L3 may be a trigger to perform enhanced imaging modalities for confirmation of HCC.