Explainable Tensor Multi-Task Ensemble Learning Based on Brain Structure Variation for Alzheimer's Disease Dynamic Prediction

Machine learning approaches for predicting Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression can substantially assist researchers and clinicians in developing effective AD preventive and treatment strategies. This study proposes a novel machine learning algorithm to predict the AD progression utilising a multi-task ensemble learning approach. Specifically, we present a novel tensor multi-task learning (MTL) algorithm based on similarity measurement of spatio-temporal variability of brain biomarkers to model AD progression. In this model, the prediction of each patient sample in the tensor is set as one task, where all tasks share a set of latent factors obtained through tensor decomposition. Furthermore, as subjects have continuous records of brain biomarker testing, the model is extended to ensemble the subjects' temporally continuous prediction results utilising a gradient boosting kernel to find more accurate predictions. We have conducted extensive experiments utilising data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm and model. Results demonstrate that the proposed model have superior accuracy and stability in predicting AD progression compared to benchmarks and state-of-the-art multi-task regression methods in terms of the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) questionnaire and The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) cognitive scores. Brain biomarker correlation information can be utilised to identify variations in individual brain structures and the model can be utilised to effectively predict the progression of AD with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data and cognitive scores of AD patients at different stages.