Genomic prediction of switchgrass winter survivorship across diverse lowland populations

In the North-Central United States, lowland ecotype switchgrass can increase yield by up to 50% compared with locally adapted but early flowering cultivars. However, lowland ecotypes are not winter tolerant. The mechanism for winter damage is unknown but previously has been associated with late flowering time. This study investigated heading date (measured for two years) and winter survivorship (measured for three years) in a multi-generation population generated from two winter-hardy lowland individuals and diverse southern lowland populations. Sequencing data (311,776 markers) from 1,306 individuals were used to evaluate genome-wide trait prediction through cross-validation and progeny prediction (n = 52). Genetic variance for heading date and winter survivorship was additive with high narrow-sense heritability (0.64 and 0.71, respectively) and reliability (0.68 and 0.76, respectively). The initial negative correlation between winter survivorship and heading date degraded across generations (F1r = -0.43, pseudo-F2r = -0.28, pseudo-F2 progeny r = -0.15). Within-family predictive ability was moderately high for heading date and winter survivorship (0.53 and 0.52, respectively). A multi-trait model did not improve predictive ability for either trait. Progeny predictive ability was 0.71 for winter survivorship and 0.53 for heading date. These results suggest that lowland ecotype populations can obtain sufficient survival rates in the northern United States with two or three cycles of effective selection. Despite accurate genomic prediction, naturally occurring winter mortality successfully isolated winter tolerant genotypes and appears to be an efficient method to develop high-yielding, cold-tolerant switchgrass cultivars.

Limitation of Grassland Productivity by Low Temperature and Seasonality of Growth

The productivity of temperate grassland is limited by the response of plants to low temperature, affecting winter persistence and seasonal growth rates. During the winter, the growth of perennial grasses is restricted by a combination of low temperature and the lack of available light, but during early spring low ground temperature is the main limiting factor. Once temperature increases, growth is stimulated, resulting in a peak in growth in spring before growth rates decline later in the season. Growth is not primarily limited by the ability to photosynthesize, but controlled by active regulatory processes that, e.g., enable plants to restrict growth and conserve resources for cold acclimation and winter survival. An insufficient ability to cold acclimate can affect winter persistence, thereby also reducing grassland productivity. While some mechanistic knowledge is available that explains how low temperature limits plant growth, the seasonal mechanisms that promote growth in response to increasing spring temperatures but restrict growth later in the season are only partially understood. Here, we assess the available knowledge of the physiological and signaling processes that determine growth, including hormonal effects, on cellular growth and on carbohydrate metabolism. Using data for grass growth in Ireland, we identify environmental factors that limit growth at different times of the year. Ideas are proposed how developmental factors, e.g., epigenetic changes, can lead to seasonality of the growth response to temperature. We also discuss perspectives for modeling grass growth and breeding to improve grassland productivity in a changing climate.