Climate and habitat configuration limit range expansion and patterns of dispersal in a non-native lizard

Invasive species are one of the main causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. As introduced, populations increase in abundance and geographical range, so does the potential for negative impacts on native communities. As such, there is a need to better understand the processes driving range expansion as species become established in recipient landscapes. Through an investigation into capacity for population growth and range expansion of introduced populations of a non-native lizard (Podarcis muralis), we aimed to demonstrate how multi-scale factors influence spatial spread, population growth, and invasion potential in introduced species. We collated location records of P. muralis presence in England, UK through data collected from field surveys and a citizen science campaign. We used these data as input for presence-background models to predict areas of climate suitability at a national-scale (5 km resolution), and fine-scale habitat suitability at the local scale (2 m resolution). We then integrated local models into an individual-based modeling platform to simulate population dynamics and forecast range expansion for 10 populations in heterogeneous landscapes. National-scale models indicated climate suitability has restricted the species to the southern parts of the UK, primarily by a latitudinal cline in overwintering conditions. Patterns of population growth and range expansion were related to differences in local landscape configuration and heterogeneity. Growth curves suggest populations could be in the early stages of exponential growth. However, annual rates of range expansion are predicted to be low (5-16 m). We conclude that extensive nationwide range expansion through secondary introduction is likely to be restricted by currently unsuitable climate beyond southern regions of the UK. However, exponential growth of local populations in habitats providing transport pathways is likely to increase opportunities for regional expansion. The broad habitat niche of P. muralis, coupled with configuration of habitat patches in the landscape, allows populations to increase locally with minimal dispersal.

Environmentally induced development costs underlie fitness tradeoffs

Local adaptation can lead to genotype-by-environment interactions, which can create fitness tradeoffs in alternative environments, and govern the distribution of biodiversity across geographic landscapes. Exploring the ecological circumstances that promote the evolution of fitness tradeoffs requires identifying how natural selection operates and during which ontogenetic stages natural selection is strongest. When organisms disperse to areas outside their natural range, tradeoffs might emerge when organisms struggle to reach key life history stages, or alternatively, die shortly after reaching life history stages if there are greater risks of mortality associated with costs to developing in novel environments. We used multiple populations from four ecotypes of an Australian native wildflower (Senecio pinnatifolius) in reciprocal transplants to explore how fitness tradeoffs arise across ontogeny. We then assessed whether the survival probability for plants from native and foreign populations was contingent on reaching key developmental stages. We found that fitness tradeoffs emerged as ontogeny progressed when native plants were more successful than foreign plants at reaching seedling establishment and maturity. Native and foreign plants that failed to reach seedling establishment died at the same rate, but plants from foreign populations died quicker than native plants after reaching seedling establishment, and died quicker regardless of whether they reached sexual maturity or not. Development rates were similar for native and foreign populations, but changed depending on the environment. Together, our results suggest that natural selection for environment-specific traits early in life history created tradeoffs between contrasting environments. Plants from foreign populations were either unable to develop to seedling establishment, or they suffered increased mortality as a consequence of reaching seedling establishment. The observation of tradeoffs together with environmentally dependent changes in development rate suggest that foreign environments induce organisms to develop at a rate different from their native habitat, incurring consequences for lifetime fitness and population divergence.

Using sensitivity analysis to identify key factors for the propagation of a plant epidemic

Identifying the key factors underlying the spread of a disease is an essential but challenging prerequisite to design management strategies. To tackle this issue, we propose an approach based on sensitivity analyses of a spatiotemporal stochastic model simulating the spread of a plant epidemic. This work is motivated by the spread of sharka, caused by plum pox virus, in a real landscape. We first carried out a broad-range sensitivity analysis, ignoring any prior information on six epidemiological parameters, to assess their intrinsic influence on model behaviour. A second analysis benefited from the available knowledge on sharka epidemiology and was thus restricted to more realistic values. The broad-range analysis revealed that the mean duration of the latent period is the most influential parameter of the model, whereas the sharka-specific analysis uncovered the strong impact of the connectivity of the first infected orchard. In addition to demonstrating the interest of sensitivity analyses for a stochastic model, this study highlights the impact of variation ranges of target parameters on the outcome of a sensitivity analysis. With regard to sharka management, our results suggest that sharka surveillance may benefit from paying closer attention to highly connected patches whose infection could trigger serious epidemics.

A modeling framework for the establishment and spread of invasive species in heterogeneous environments

Natural and human-induced events are continuously altering the structure of our landscapes and as a result impacting the spatial relationships between individual landscape elements and the species living in the area. Yet, only recently has the influence of the surrounding landscape on invasive species spread started to be considered. The scientific community increasingly recognizes the need for broader modeling framework that focuses on cross-study comparisons at different spatiotemporal scales. Using two illustrative examples, we introduce a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the effect of habitat change on invasive species establishment and spread. The essential parts of the framework are (i) a mechanistic spatially explicit model (a modular dispersal framework-MDIG) that allows population dynamics and dispersal to be modeled in a geographical information system (GIS), (ii) a landscape generator that allows replicated landscape patterns with partially controllable spatial properties to be generated, and (iii) landscape metrics that depict the essential aspects of landscape with which dispersal and demographic processes interact. The modeling framework provides functionality for a wide variety of applications ranging from predictions of the spatiotemporal spread of real species and comparison of potential management strategies, to theoretical investigation of the effect of habitat change on population dynamics. Such a framework allows to quantify how small-grain landscape characteristics, such as habitat size and habitat connectivity, interact with life-history traits to determine the dynamics of invasive species spread in fragmented landscape. As such, it will give deeper insights into species traits and landscape features that lead to establishment and spread success and may be key to preventing new incursions and the development of efficient monitoring, surveillance, control or eradication programs.

How does the functional diversity of frugivorous birds shape the spatial pattern of seed dispersal? A case study in a relict plant species

Genetic markers used in combination with network analysis can characterize the fine spatial pattern of seed dispersal and assess the differential contribution of dispersers. As a case study, we focus on the seed dispersal service provided by a small guild of frugivorous birds to the common yew, Taxus baccata L., in southern Spain. We build the spatial networks of seed dispersal events between trees and seed-plots within the studied population-local network-and the spatial network that includes all dispersal events-regional network. Such networks are structured in well-defined modules, i.e. groups of tightly connected mother trees and seed-plots. Neither geographical distance, nor microhabitat type explained this modular structure, but when long-distance dispersal events are incorporated in the network it shows a relative increase in overall modularity. Independent field observations suggested the co-occurrence of two complementary groups, short- and long-distance dispersers, mostly contributing to the local and regional seed rain, respectively. The main long-distance disperser at our site, Turdus viscivorus, preferentially visits the most productive trees, thus shaping the seed rain at the landscape scale and affecting the local modular organization. We end by discussing how DNA barcoding could serve to better quantify the role of functional diversity.

Assessing eradication strategies for rain-splashed and wind-dispersed crop diseases

BACKGROUND

The eradicability of rain-splashed crop diseases was examined by modelling the spread of lupin anthracnose over a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Two hypotheses were investigated: (i) in most cases, rain-splashed diseases are unlikely to be eradicable because spread will be too extensive by the time the disease is detected; (ii) there are recognisable characteristics of an incursion that can be used to identify cases when the disease will be eradicable.

RESULTS

Results indicate that the eradication of a rain-splashed crop disease is heavily dependent on the surveillance effort, on how detectable the disease is and on whether there are susceptible hosts outside the cropping area. These simple indicators can be used to estimate the potential for success of an eradication scheme. Eradication targeting only the crop area is destined to fail, unless it is certain that no susceptible host lies adjacent to the cropping area.

CONCLUSION

A failed eradication attempt can be costly, and a simple set of indicators for the likelihood of success is extremely useful. These indicators can aid decision-makers when faced with a new incursion, identifying when there is little hope of success. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.