COVID-19 shifts mortality salience, activities, and values in the United States: Big data analysis of online adaptation

What is the effect of a life-threatening pandemic at the societal level? An expanded Theory of Social Change, Cultural Evolution, and Human Development predicts that, during a period of increasing survival threat and decreasing prosperity, humans will shift toward the psychology and behavior typical of the small-scale, collectivistic, and rural subsistence ecologies in which we evolved. In particular, subjective mortality salience, engagement in subsistence activities, and collectivism will all increase, while the aspiration to be wealthy will decrease. Because coronavirus has forced unprecedented proportions of human activity online, we tested hypotheses derived from the theory by analyzing big data samples for 70 days before and 70 days after the coronavirus pandemic stimulated President Trump to declare a national emergency. Google searches were used for an exploratory study; the exploratory study was followed by three independent replications on Twitter, internet forums, and blogs. Across all four internet platforms, terms related to subjective mortality salience, engagement in subsistence activities, and collectivism showed massive increases. These findings, coupled with prior research testing this theory, indicate that humans may have an evolutionarily conditioned response to the level of death and availability of material resources in society. More specifically, humans may shift their behavior and psychology toward that found in subsistence ecologies under conditions of high mortality and low prosperity or, conversely, toward behavior and psychology found in modern commercial ecologies under conditions of low mortality and high prosperity.

Matching in an undisturbed natural human environment

Data from the Oregon Youth Study, consisting of the verbal behavior of 210 adolescent boys determined to be at risk for delinquency (targets) and 210 of their friends (peers), were analyzed for their conformance to the complete family of matching theory equations in light of recent findings from the basic science, and using recently developed analytic techniques. Equations of the classic and modern theories of matching were fitted as ensembles to rates and time allocations of the boys' rule-break and normative talk obtained from conversations between pairs of boys. The verbal behavior of each boy in a conversation was presumed to be reinforced by positive social responses from the other boy. Consistent with recent findings from the basic science, the boys' verbal behavior was accurately described by the modern but not the classic theory of matching. These findings also add support to the assertion that basic principles and processes that are known to govern behavior in laboratory experiments also govern human social behavior in undisturbed natural environments.