Longitudinal physical activity trajectories from childhood to adulthood and their determinants: The Young Finns Study

Determining lifelong physical activity (PA) trajectories and their determinants is essential to promote a physically active lifestyle throughout the life-course. We aimed to identify PA trajectories from childhood to midlife and their determinants in a longitudinal population-based cohort. This study is a part of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. From 1980, a population-based cohort (N = 3596; 1764 boys/1832 girls, age 3-18 years) has been followed up for 31 years. PA indices were formed based on self-reported data (between age 9-49 years) on frequency, duration, and intensity of leisure (during childhood) or high-intensity (at later age) PA and on sports club participation/competitions. PA trajectories were analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling. Childhood (age 12 years), young adulthood (age 24 years), and early midlife (age 37 years) determinants were analyzed. Five PA trajectories were identified: persistently active (6.6%), decreasingly active (13.9%), increasingly active (13.5%), persistently low active (51.4%, reference group), persistently inactive (14.6%). In childhood, rural residential area (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.21-0.96) and high academic performance (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.58-3.00) associated with persistently active group. In early midlife, smoking (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.07-2.58) associated with persistently inactive group, regular alcohol drinking (OR 2.91; 95% CI 1.12-7.55) with persistently active group and having children (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.27-3.38) with decreasingly active group. High adulthood education associated with both decreasingly (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.05-3.35) and increasingly (OR 2.09; 95% CI 1.19-3.68) active groups. We identified five PA trajectories from childhood into midlife. Most prominent determinants were academic achievement, education, having children and health habits (i.e. smoking/alcohol use).

Using constructs of the transtheoretical model to predict classes of change in regular physical activity: a multi-ethnic longitudinal cohort study

Explaining variation in meeting recommended levels of physical activity across time is important for the design of effective public health interventions. To model longitudinal change in constructs of the Transtheoretical Model and test their hypothesized relations with change in meeting the Healthy People 2010 guidelines for regular participation in moderate or vigorous physical activity, a cohort (N = 497) from a random, multi-ethnic sample of 700 adults living in Hawaii was assessed at 6-month intervals three or more times for 2 years. Latent class growth modeling was used to classify people according to their initial levels and trajectories of change in the transtheoretical variables and separately according to whether they met the physical activity guideline each time. Relations of the variables and their change with classes of meeting the guideline were then tested using multinomial logistic regression. Despite declines or no change in mean scores for all transtheoretical variables except self-efficacy, participants who maintained or attained the physical activity guideline were more likely to retain higher scores across the 2 years of observation. The usefulness of transtheoretical constructs for predicting maintenance of, or increases in, public health levels of physical activity was generally supported. These longitudinal results support earlier cross-sectional findings which indicate that, contrary to theory, people appear to use both experiential and behavioral processes while they attempt to increase or maintain their physical activity.

Trajectories of Body Mass Index from Childhood to Young Adulthood among Patients with Type 1 Diabetes-A Longitudinal Group-Based Modeling Approach Based on the DPV Registry

OBJECTIVE

To identify distinct longitudinal patterns of body mass index (BMI) z score in type 1 diabetes from childhood to young adulthood and secondly to determine sex differences as well as associated clinical covariates.

STUDY DESIGN

A total of 5665 patients with type 1 diabetes (51% male) with follow-up from 8 to 20 years of age from the multicenter diabetes prospective registry DPV were studied (baseline diabetes duration ≥1 years, BMI z score aggregated per year of life). Latent class growth modeling (SAS: PROC TRAJ) was applied to analyze BMI z score over time.

RESULTS

Six distinct BMI z score trajectories were identified (group 1: 7% of patients, group 2: 22%, group 3: 20%, group 4: 16%, group 5: 25%, and group 6: 10%). Group 1, 2, 5, and 6 had an almost stable BMI z score, either in the low, near-normal, high stable, or chronic overweight range. Group 3 (60% girls) increased their BMI during puberty, whereas group 4 (65% boys) had a BMI decrease. Similar patterns were observed for girls only, whereas boys followed nearly stable trajectories without fluctuation over time. Between the near-normal and the other groups, significant differences (P < .05) in sex ratio, migration background, mental health, height z score, glycated hemoglobin A1c, diabetes treatment, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and smoking were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In youth with type 1 diabetes, a great heterogeneity of BMI z score trajectories exists that highlight the importance of personalized sex-specific intervention programs for subjects at risk for unfavorable BMI development.

Trajectory classes of cannabis use and heavy drinking among rural African American adolescents: multi-level predictors of class membership

AIMS

To inform research on the etiology and prevention of substance use among rural African American youth by (a) identifying developmental trajectory classes of cannabis use and heavy drinking across adolescence and young adulthood and (b) examining associations between trajectory class membership and multi-level assessments of risk factors.

DESIGN

A prospective study spanning 9 years with assessments of cannabis use and heavy drinking, the catecholamines epinephrine and norepinephrine, perceived stress and psychosocial risk factors.

SETTING

Rural communities in the southeastern United States.

PARTICIPANTS

African American youth (n = 518).

MEASUREMENTS

Participants were assessed for cannabis use and heavy drinking at seven assessments beginning at 16 years of age and continuing to 25 years of age. At age 19, participants provided overnight urine voids that were assayed for catecholamines, a biological marker of life stress resulting from sympathetic nervous system activation. At ages 16 and 19, participants provided information on malleable psychosocial risk factors.

FINDINGS

Latent class growth models revealed three distinct trajectory classes for cannabis use and for heavy drinking. Higher levels of circulating stress hormones and perceived stress were associated with classes reporting greater substance use over time (all Ps < 0.05). A composite of selected risk factors discriminated class membership (all Ps < 0.05). Trajectory classes characterized by rapid usage increases in early adulthood exhibited the greatest increase in deviant peer affiliations between ages 16 and 19 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural African American youth's cannabis use and heavy drinking across adolescence and young adulthood demonstrate distinct developmental courses; a small number of risk factors and measures of biological and perceived stress differentiate class membership prognostically. Variability over time in these measures, specifically an increase in deviant peer affiliation, may help to account for steep increases in young adulthood.

Growth Mixture Modeling of Depression Symptoms Following Traumatic Brain Injury

Growth Mixture Modeling (GMM) was used to investigate the longitudinal trajectory of groups (classes) of depression symptoms, and how these groups were predicted by the covariates of age, sex, severity, and length of hospitalization following Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) in a group of 1074 individuals (696 males, and 378 females) from the Royal Hobart Hospital, who sustained a TBI. The study began in late December 2003 and recruitment continued until early 2007. Ages ranged from 14 to 90 years, with a mean of 35.96 years (SD = 16.61). The study also examined the associations between the groups and causes of TBI. Symptoms of depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale within 3 weeks of injury, and at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months post-injury. The results revealed three groups: low, high, and delayed depression. In the low group depression scores remained below the clinical cut-off at all assessment points during the 24-months post-TBI, and in the high group, depression scores were above the clinical cut-off at all assessment points. The delayed group showed an increase in depression symptoms to 12 months after injury, followed by a return to initial assessment level during the following 12 months. Covariates were found to be differentially associated with the three groups. For example, relative to the low group, the high depression group was associated with more severe TBI, being female, and a shorter period of hospitalization. The delayed group also had a shorter period of hospitalization, were younger, and sustained less severe TBI. Our findings show considerable fluctuation of depression over time, and that a non-clinical level of depression at any one point in time does not necessarily mean that the person will continue to have non-clinical levels in the future. As we used GMM, we were able to show new findings and also bring clarity to contradictory past findings on depression and TBI. Consequently, we recommend the use of this approach in future studies in this area.

Social isolation trajectories in midlife and later-life: patterns and associations with health

OBJECTIVES

Social isolation has objective and subjective dimensions. Few studies have simultaneously examined trajectories of both dimensions. We integrated multiple indicators of both dimensions to identify social isolation trajectory patterns and investigated how different patterns were related to adults' physical, mental, cognitive, and self-rated health.

METHODS

We used latent class growth modeling to examine social isolation trajectory patterns, based on data from the 2008-2016 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (N = 6457). Mixed-effect linear models were used to examine how trajectory patterns were associated with functional limitations, depressive symptoms, memory deficits, and self-rated health over the 8-year study period.

RESULTS

Four social isolation trajectory patterns were identified: severe isolation (15.4%), moderate isolation (37.6%), some objective and rare subjective isolation (35.4%), and rare objective and low subjective isolation (11.6%). Social isolation trajectory patterns showed a gradient in all health domains. The rare objective and low subjective isolation group had the best health (i.e., the fewest functional limitations, depressive symptoms, and memory deficits and the best self-rated health); the some objective and rare subjective isolation group had the next best health; the moderate isolation group had the second worst health; and the severe isolation group had the worst health.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence and stability of severe and moderate social isolation suggest it may be necessary to address social isolation at the national level. The most favorable health outcomes associated with the rare objective and low subjective isolation group supports interventions to strengthen social networks and engagement midlife and later-life.

Patterns of Change in Employment Status and Their Association with Self-Rated Health, Perceived Daily Stress, and Sleep among Young Adults in South Korea

We identified distinct trajectories of temporal changes in employment status and investigated their association with self-rated health, perceived stress, and sleep. Data pertaining to 1228 respondents (age: 17–31 years) were extracted from the Korea Youth Panel (YP2007) survey (3rd–9th wave) datasets. Participants were either paid employees (permanent or precarious) or currently unemployed but seeking a job at baseline. Latent class growth analyses were employed to extract different classes based on the annual change in employment status (permanent/precarious/unemployed). Logistic regression analyses were performed using extracted classes as predictor variables and health-related variables at the final time-point as outcome variables. Five trajectories of employment status change were identified: stability sustained; gradually deteriorated; swiftly alleviated; gradually alleviated; instability sustained. Compared with the stability sustained group, the gradually deteriorated and gradually alleviated groups showed higher odds of perceived stress. The gradually deteriorated, instability sustained, and gradually alleviated groups showed significantly higher odds of shorter sleep than the stabilized group. We highlight the adverse health effects of prolonged unstable employment and the need for interventions to mitigate these effects.

Why Do Children in Slums Suffer from Anemia, Iron, Zinc, and Vitamin A Deficiency? Results from a Birth Cohort Study in Dhaka

Considering the high burden of micronutrient deficiencies in Bangladeshi children, this analysis aimed to identify the factors associated with micronutrient deficiencies and association of plasma micronutrient concentration trajectories from 7 to 24 months with the concentrations at 60 months of age. Plasma samples were collected at 7, 15, 24, and 60 months of age, and hemoglobin, ferritin, zinc, and retinol concentrations of 155, 153, 154, and 155 children were measured, respectively. A generalized estimating equation was used to identify the factors associated with micronutrient deficiencies, while latent class growth modeling identified the trajectories of plasma micronutrients from 7 to 24 months and its association with the concentrations of micronutrients at 60 months was examined using multiple linear regression modeling. Early (AOR = 2.21, p < 0.05) and late convalescence (AOR = 1.65, p < 0.05) stage of an infection, low ferritin (AOR = 3.04, p < 0.05), and low retinol (AOR = 2.07, p < 0.05) were associated with increased anemia prevalence. Wasting at enrollment was associated with zinc deficiency (AOR = 1.8, p < 0.05) and birth weight was associated with ferritin deficiency (AOR = 0.58, p < 0.05). Treatment of drinking water was found protective against vitamin A deficiency (AOR = 0.57, p < 0.05). Higher trajectories for ferritin and retinol during 7–24 months were positively associated with plasma ferritin (β = 13.72, p < 0.05) and plasma retinol (β = 3.99, p < 0.05) at 60 months.

Latent class trajectories of infant temperament and associations with problem behavior at two years of age

Individual differences in temperament have been well-described, but individual differences in temperament trajectories require elaboration. Specifically, it is unknown if subgroups of infants display different developmental patterns and if these patterns relate to later behavioral problems. The aims were to identify distinct developmental patterns in broad dimensions of temperament among typically developing infants, to determine whether these developmental patterns differ by sex, to evaluate how developmental patterns within each dimension of temperament relate to developmental patterns within other dimensions of temperament, and to determine whether developmental patterns of infant temperament are associated with internalizing and externalizing behavior at 2 years of age. Data from the longitudinal Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition study (n = 1,819) were used to model latent class trajectories of parent-reported infant temperament at 3, 6, and 12 months. Four to five unique latent trajectories were identified within each temperament dimension. Sex was not associated with trajectory groups. Developmental coordination was observed between trajectories of negative emotionality and regulatory capacity, and between regulatory capacity and positive affect, but not between positive affect and negative emotionality. Negative emotionality and regulatory capacity predicted internalizing and externalizing behavior. Patterns of development in infant temperament, and not just intensity of temperament, contribute toward later problem behavior.

Taller adult height is associated with better performance of cognitive trajectories in Chinese over 45 years old: Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

AIM

The association between adult height and follow-up cognition requires an update in China. We aimed to examine the association between baseline height and follow-up cognitive trajectories in Chinese subjects from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).

METHODS

A total of 6508 adults aged 45 years or older from the CHARLS were included for analysis. Latent class growth modeling was used to determine cognitive trajectories of 2011, 2013 and 2015. Multivariable linear regression and logistic regression models were used to examine the association between baseline adult height and cognitive performance and trajectories, respectively.

RESULTS

At baseline, an increment of 1 SD (8.3 cm) of height was associated with a higher global cognitive score (β = 0.492, 95% CI, 0.348-0.636), verbal episodic memory (β = 0.155, 95% CI, 0.086-0.224) and mental status (β = 0.337, 95% CI, 0.225-0.449). These associations were still observed even when stratified by sex. Prospectively, for females, the third quartile of height level (i.e., 155 to 158 cm) was associated with a better global cognitive function trajectory (OR = 1.627, P = 0.001, P for trend = 0.009) and mental status trajectory (OR = 1.456, P = 0.012, P for trend = 0.047); and the tallest height level (i.e., 159 cm or taller) was related to a better verbal episodic memory trajectory (OR = 1.574, P = 0.017). For males, no associations were observed.

CONCLUSION

Increased stature might be associated with better cognitive trajectories for subjects in China. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 732-740.

Longitudinal Analysis of Risk Factors for Pulmonary Function Decline in Chronic Lung Diseases Over Five Years

Objective

Chronic lung diseases (CLDs) are a major global health concern, characterized by a progressive decline in pulmonary function that severely impacts quality of life. It is essential to identify and predict the primary risk factors for CLDs. This study aims to establish a predictive model to assist healthcare providers in the early identification of high-risk patients and timely interventions and treatment options.

Methods

This study utilized questionnaire data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) collected in 2011, 2013, and 2015. A latent class growth model (LCGM) was established using CLDs as the baseline sample. This model stratified the patients based on the extent of the decline in Δpeak expiratory flow (ΔPEF), which served as the target variable. Independent variables included age, gender, smoking status, body mass index, education level, and comorbidities. A random forest model was developed using Python, and the importance of the feature was visualized through the SHAP method. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curve analysis, and decision curve analysis.

Results

After screening, a total of 553 patients with CLDs were included in the study. The random forest model pinpointed grip strength, age, education level, gender, and asthma as the top five risk factors for pulmonary function decline. Specifically, the model demonstrated robust predictive performance with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of 0.77, affirming its accuracy and clinical applicability. Both calibration and decision curves further substantiated the reliability of the model in identifying patients at increased risk for pulmonary function decline.

Conclusion

The predictive model developed in this study serves as a valuable tool for clinicians to target early interventions and optimize treatment strategies to enhance the quality of care and patient outcomes in the management of CLDs.

Processing Speed throughout Primary School Education: Evidence from a Cross-Country Longitudinal Study

This cross-country four-year longitudinal study investigated the development of processing speed throughout primary school education. The analyses were conducted on data accumulated from 441 pupils in grades from 1 to 4 (aged 6.42 to 11.85 years) in Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Mixed effects growth modeling was applied to estimate average and individual growth trajectories for processing speed in two cross-country samples. Latent class growth modeling was conducted to describe various types of growth trajectories for processing speed and to compare the distribution of the types within the analyzed samples. According to the results, processing speed significantly increases across primary school years. The trajectory is described by nonlinear changes with most dynamic growth between grades 1 and 2, which slows down until grade 4. No significant cross-country differences were found in the initial score of processing speed or developmental changes in processing speed across primary school years. The development of processing speed is described by a model including three quadratic growth types but this minimally differs. It is concluded that in both samples, the development of processing speed may be characterized by homogeneity, with the most intensive growth from grade 1 to grade 2 and subsequent linear improvement until grade 4.