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Nunes A, Ardau R, Berghöfer A, Bocchetta A, Chillotti C, Deiana V, Garnham J, Grof E, Hajek T, Manchia M, Müller-Oerlinghausen B, Pinna M, Pisanu C, O'Donovan C, Severino G, Slaney C, Suwalska A, Zvolsky P, Cervantes P, Del Zompo M, Grof P, Rybakowski J, Tondo L, Trappenberg T, Alda M. Prediction of lithium response using clinical data. Acta Psychiatr Scand 2020; 141:131-141. [PMID: 31667829 DOI: 10.1111/acps.13122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/23/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Promptly establishing maintenance therapy could reduce morbidity and mortality in patients with bipolar disorder. Using a machine learning approach, we sought to evaluate whether lithium responsiveness (LR) is predictable using clinical markers. METHOD Our data are the largest existing sample of direct interview-based clinical data from lithium-treated patients (n = 1266, 34.7% responders), collected across seven sites, internationally. We trained a random forest model to classify LR-as defined by the previously validated Alda scale-against 180 clinical predictors. RESULTS Under appropriate cross-validation procedures, LR was predictable in the pooled sample with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI 0.78-0.82) and a Cohen kappa of 0.46 (0.4-0.51). The model demonstrated a particularly low false-positive rate (specificity 0.91 [0.88-0.92]). Features related to clinical course and the absence of rapid cycling appeared consistently informative. CONCLUSION Clinical data can inform out-of-sample LR prediction to a potentially clinically relevant degree. Despite the relevance of clinical course and the absence of rapid cycling, there was substantial between-site heterogeneity with respect to feature importance. Future work must focus on improving classification of true positives, better characterizing between- and within-site heterogeneity, and further testing such models on new external datasets.
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Reinbold CS, Forstner AJ, Hecker J, Fullerton JM, Hoffmann P, Hou L, Heilbronner U, Degenhardt F, Adli M, Akiyama K, Akula N, Ardau R, Arias B, Backlund L, Benabarre A, Bengesser S, Bhattacharjee AK, Biernacka JM, Birner A, Marie-Claire C, Cervantes P, Chen GB, Chen HC, Chillotti C, Clark SR, Colom F, Cousins DA, Cruceanu C, Czerski PM, Dayer A, Étain B, Falkai P, Frisén L, Gard S, Garnham JS, Goes FS, Grof P, Gruber O, Hashimoto R, Hauser J, Herms S, Jamain S, Jiménez E, Kahn JP, Kassem L, Kittel-Schneider S, Kliwicki S, König B, Kusumi I, Lackner N, Laje G, Landén M, Lavebratt C, Leboyer M, Leckband SG, López Jaramillo CA, MacQueen G, Manchia M, Martinsson L, Mattheisen M, McCarthy MJ, McElroy SL, Mitjans M, Mondimore FM, Monteleone P, Nievergelt CM, Ösby U, Ozaki N, Perlis RH, Pfennig A, Reich-Erkelenz D, Rouleau GA, Schofield PR, Schubert KO, Schweizer BW, Seemüller F, Severino G, Shekhtman T, Shilling PD, Shimoda K, Simhandl C, Slaney CM, Smoller JW, Squassina A, Stamm TJ, Stopkova P, Tighe SK, Tortorella A, Turecki G, Volkert J, Witt SH, Wright AJ, Young LT, Zandi PP, Potash JB, DePaulo JR, Bauer M, Reininghaus E, Novák T, Aubry JM, et alReinbold CS, Forstner AJ, Hecker J, Fullerton JM, Hoffmann P, Hou L, Heilbronner U, Degenhardt F, Adli M, Akiyama K, Akula N, Ardau R, Arias B, Backlund L, Benabarre A, Bengesser S, Bhattacharjee AK, Biernacka JM, Birner A, Marie-Claire C, Cervantes P, Chen GB, Chen HC, Chillotti C, Clark SR, Colom F, Cousins DA, Cruceanu C, Czerski PM, Dayer A, Étain B, Falkai P, Frisén L, Gard S, Garnham JS, Goes FS, Grof P, Gruber O, Hashimoto R, Hauser J, Herms S, Jamain S, Jiménez E, Kahn JP, Kassem L, Kittel-Schneider S, Kliwicki S, König B, Kusumi I, Lackner N, Laje G, Landén M, Lavebratt C, Leboyer M, Leckband SG, López Jaramillo CA, MacQueen G, Manchia M, Martinsson L, Mattheisen M, McCarthy MJ, McElroy SL, Mitjans M, Mondimore FM, Monteleone P, Nievergelt CM, Ösby U, Ozaki N, Perlis RH, Pfennig A, Reich-Erkelenz D, Rouleau GA, Schofield PR, Schubert KO, Schweizer BW, Seemüller F, Severino G, Shekhtman T, Shilling PD, Shimoda K, Simhandl C, Slaney CM, Smoller JW, Squassina A, Stamm TJ, Stopkova P, Tighe SK, Tortorella A, Turecki G, Volkert J, Witt SH, Wright AJ, Young LT, Zandi PP, Potash JB, DePaulo JR, Bauer M, Reininghaus E, Novák T, Aubry JM, Maj M, Baune BT, Mitchell PB, Vieta E, Frye MA, Rybakowski JK, Kuo PH, Kato T, Grigoroiu-Serbanescu M, Reif A, Del Zompo M, Bellivier F, Schalling M, Wray NR, Kelsoe JR, Alda M, McMahon FJ, Schulze TG, Rietschel M, Nöthen MM, Cichon S. Analysis of the Influence of microRNAs in Lithium Response in Bipolar Disorder. Front Psychiatry 2018; 9:207. [PMID: 29904359 PMCID: PMC5991073 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2018.00207] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2018] [Accepted: 05/03/2018] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Bipolar disorder (BD) is a common, highly heritable neuropsychiatric disease characterized by recurrent episodes of mania and depression. Lithium is the best-established long-term treatment for BD, even though individual response is highly variable. Evidence suggests that some of this variability has a genetic basis. This is supported by the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of lithium response to date conducted by the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen). Recently, we performed the first genome-wide analysis of the involvement of miRNAs in BD and identified nine BD-associated miRNAs. However, it is unknown whether these miRNAs are also associated with lithium response in BD. In the present study, we therefore tested whether common variants at these nine candidate miRNAs contribute to the variance in lithium response in BD. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed whether any other miRNA in the genome is implicated in the response to lithium. For this purpose, we performed gene-based tests for all known miRNA coding genes in the ConLiGen GWAS dataset (n = 2,563 patients) using a set-based testing approach adapted from the versatile gene-based test for GWAS (VEGAS2). In the candidate approach, miR-499a showed a nominally significant association with lithium response, providing some evidence for involvement in both development and treatment of BD. In the genome-wide miRNA analysis, 71 miRNAs showed nominally significant associations with the dichotomous phenotype and 106 with the continuous trait for treatment response. A total of 15 miRNAs revealed nominal significance in both phenotypes with miR-633 showing the strongest association with the continuous trait (p = 9.80E-04) and miR-607 with the dichotomous phenotype (p = 5.79E-04). No association between miRNAs and treatment response to lithium in BD in either of the tested conditions withstood multiple testing correction. Given the limited power of our study, the investigation of miRNAs in larger GWAS samples of BD and lithium response is warranted.
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Scott J, Bellivier F, Manchia M, Schulze T, Alda M, Etain B, Garnham J, Nunes A, O'Donovan C, Slaney C, Bauer M, Pfennig A, Reif A, Kittel‐Schneider S, Veeh J, Zompo MD, Ardau R, Chillotti C, Severino G, Kato T, Ozaki N, Kusumi I, Hashimoto R, Akiyama K, Kelso J. Can network analysis shed light on predictors of lithium response in bipolar I disorder? Acta Psychiatr Scand 2020; 141:522-533. [PMID: 32068882 DOI: 10.1111/acps.13163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2019] [Revised: 02/10/2020] [Accepted: 02/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To undertake a large-scale clinical study of predictors of lithium (Li) response in bipolar I disorder (BD-I) and apply contemporary multivariate approaches to account for inter-relationships between putative predictors. METHODS We used network analysis to estimate the number and strength of connections between potential predictors of good Li response (measured by a new scoring algorithm for the Retrospective Assessment of Response to Lithium Scale) in 900 individuals with BD-I recruited to the Consortium of Lithium Genetics. RESULTS After accounting for co-associations between potential predictors, the most important factors associated with the good Li response phenotype were panic disorder, manic predominant polarity, manic first episode, age at onset between 15-32 years and family history of BD. Factors most strongly linked to poor outcome were comorbid obsessive-compulsive disorder, alcohol and/or substance misuse, and/or psychosis (symptoms or syndromes). CONCLUSIONS Network analysis can offer important additional insights to prospective studies of predictors of Li treatment outcomes. It appears to especially help in further clarifying the role of family history of BD (i.e. its direct and indirect associations) and highlighting the positive and negative associations of different subtypes of anxiety disorders with Li response, particularly the little-known negative association between Li response and obsessive-compulsive disorder.
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