Statistical issues in the design, conduct and analysis of two large safety studies

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The emergence, post approval, of serious medical events, which may be associated with the use of a particular drug or class of drugs, is an important public health and regulatory issue. The best method to address this issue is through a large, rigorously designed safety study. Therefore, it is important to elucidate the statistical issues involved in these large safety studies.

METHODS

Two such studies are PRECISION and EAGLES. PRECISION is the primary focus of this article. PRECISION is a non-inferiority design with a clinically relevant non-inferiority margin. Statistical issues in the design, conduct and analysis of PRECISION are discussed.

RESULTS

Quantitative and clinical aspects of the selection of the composite primary endpoint, the determination and role of the non-inferiority margin in a large safety study and the intent-to-treat and modified intent-to-treat analyses in a non-inferiority safety study are shown. Protocol changes that were necessary during the conduct of PRECISION are discussed from a statistical perspective. Issues regarding the complex analysis and interpretation of the results of PRECISION are outlined. EAGLES is presented as a large, rigorously designed safety study when a non-inferiority margin was not able to be determined by a strong clinical/scientific method. In general, when a non-inferiority margin is not able to be determined, the width of the 95% confidence interval is a way to size the study and to assess the cost-benefit of relative trial size.

CONCLUSION

A non-inferiority margin, when able to be determined by a strong scientific method, should be included in a large safety study. Although these studies could not be called "pragmatic," they are examples of best real-world designs to address safety and regulatory concerns.

Saccharomyces boulardii does not prevent relapse of Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Saccharomyces boulardii is a probiotic yeast that has been shown to have beneficial effects on the intestinal epithelial barrier and digestive immune system. There is preliminary evidence that S boulardii could be used to treat patients with Crohn's disease (CD). We performed a randomized, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the effects of S boulardii in patients with CD who underwent remission during therapy with steroids or aminosalicylates.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of 165 patients who achieved remission after treatment with steroids or salicylates; they were randomly assigned to groups given S boulardii (1 g/day) or placebo for 52 weeks. The primary end point was the percentage of patients in remission at week 52. Time to relapse, Crohn's disease activity index scores, and changes in parameters of inflammation were secondary end points.

RESULTS

CD relapsed in 80 patients, 38 in the S boulardii group (47.5%) and 42 in the placebo group (53.2%, a nonsignificant difference). The median time to relapse did not differ significantly between patients given S boulardii (40.7 weeks) vs placebo (39.0 weeks). There were no significant differences between groups in mean Crohn's disease activity index scores or erythrocyte sedimentation rates or in median levels of C-reactive protein. In a post hoc analysis, nonsmokers given S boulardii were less likely to experience a relapse of CD than nonsmokers given placebo, but this finding requires confirmation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the probiotic yeast S boulardii is safe and well tolerated, it does not appear to have any beneficial effects for patients with CD in remission after steroid or salicylate therapies.

Efficacy and safety of a novel dual modulator of adenosine triphosphate-citrate lyase and adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase in patients with hypercholesterolemia: results of a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the lipid-altering efficacy and safety of ETC-1002 in subjects with hypercholesterolemia.

BACKGROUND

ETC-1002 is a small molecule that modulates pathways of cholesterol, fatty acid, and carbohydrate metabolism and may have therapeutic benefits in treating hypercholesterolemia and other cardiometabolic risk factors.

METHODS

This multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial evaluated patients (n = 177) with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (130 to 220 mg/dl), who were stratified by baseline triglycerides (not elevated [<150 mg/dl] or elevated [150-<400 mg/dl]) and randomized to receive 40, 80, or 120 mg of ETC-1002 or placebo once daily for 12 weeks. Outcomes included changes in LDL-C (primary endpoint), other lipids, and cardiometabolic risk factors; and safety.

RESULTS

ETC-1002 40, 80, and 120 mg lowered least-squares mean ± SE LDL-C levels by 17.9 ± 2.2%, 25.0 ± 2.1%, and 26.6 ± 2.2%, respectively, versus a reduction of 2.1 ± 2.2% with placebo (all, p < 0.0001); LDL-C lowering was similar between the subgroups with nonelevated and elevated triglycerides. ETC-1002 also lowered non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), apolipoprotein B, and LDL particle number (all, p < 0.0001) in a dose-dependent manner; HDL-C and triglyceride levels were relatively unchanged. Post-hoc analyses suggest that ETC-1002 may have favorable effects on other cardiometabolic risk factors. The ETC-1002 and placebo groups did not demonstrate clinically meaningful differences in adverse events or other safety assessments.

CONCLUSIONS

ETC-1002 significantly lowered LDL-C levels up to 27% across a broad range of baseline triglycerides and was generally safe and well tolerated. ETC-1002 has a novel mechanism of action and may be useful for reducing LDL-C. (A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of ETC-1002 in Subjects With Elevated Blood Cholesterol and Either Normal or Elevated Triglycerides; NCT01262638).