Statistical methods for studying disease subtype heterogeneity

A fundamental goal of epidemiologic research is to investigate the relationship between exposures and disease risk. Cases of the disease are often considered a single outcome and assumed to share a common etiology. However, evidence indicates that many human diseases arise and evolve through a range of heterogeneous molecular pathologic processes, influenced by diverse exposures. Pathogenic heterogeneity has been considered in various neoplasms such as colorectal, lung, prostate, and breast cancers, leukemia and lymphoma, and non-neoplastic diseases, including obesity, type II diabetes, glaucoma, stroke, cardiovascular disease, autism, and autoimmune disease. In this article, we discuss analytic options for studying disease subtype heterogeneity, emphasizing methods for evaluating whether the association of a potential risk factor with disease varies by disease subtype. Methods are described for scenarios where disease subtypes are categorical and ordinal and for cohort studies, matched and unmatched case-control studies, and case-case study designs. For illustration, we apply the methods to a molecular pathological epidemiology study of alcohol intake and colon cancer risk by tumor LINE-1 methylation subtypes. User-friendly software to implement the methods is publicly available.

Molecular pathological epidemiology of epigenetics: emerging integrative science to analyze environment, host, and disease

Epigenetics acts as an interface between environmental/exogenous factors, cellular responses, and pathological processes. Aberrant epigenetic signatures are a hallmark of complex multifactorial diseases (including neoplasms and malignancies such as leukemias, lymphomas, sarcomas, and breast, lung, prostate, liver, and colorectal cancers). Epigenetic signatures (DNA methylation, mRNA and microRNA expression, etc) may serve as biomarkers for risk stratification, early detection, and disease classification, as well as targets for therapy and chemoprevention. In particular, DNA methylation assays are widely applied to formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded archival tissue specimens as clinical pathology tests. To better understand the interplay between etiological factors, cellular molecular characteristics, and disease evolution, the field of 'molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE)' has emerged as an interdisciplinary integration of 'molecular pathology' and 'epidemiology'. In contrast to traditional epidemiological research including genome-wide association studies (GWAS), MPE is founded on the unique disease principle, that is, each disease process results from unique profiles of exposomes, epigenomes, transcriptomes, proteomes, metabolomes, microbiomes, and interactomes in relation to the macroenvironment and tissue microenvironment. MPE may represent a logical evolution of GWAS, termed 'GWAS-MPE approach'. Although epigenome-wide association study attracts increasing attention, currently, it has a fundamental problem in that each cell within one individual has a unique, time-varying epigenome. Having a similar conceptual framework to systems biology, the holistic MPE approach enables us to link potential etiological factors to specific molecular pathology, and gain novel pathogenic insights on causality. The widespread application of epigenome (eg, methylome) analyses will enhance our understanding of disease heterogeneity, epigenotypes (CpG island methylator phenotype, LINE-1 (long interspersed nucleotide element-1; also called long interspersed nuclear element-1; long interspersed element-1; L1) hypomethylation, etc), and host-disease interactions. In this article, we illustrate increasing contribution of modern pathology to broader public health sciences, which attests pivotal roles of pathologists in the new integrated MPE science towards our ultimate goal of personalized medicine and prevention.

Discovery of colorectal cancer PIK3CA mutation as potential predictive biomarker: power and promise of molecular pathological epidemiology

Regular use of aspirin reduces incidence and mortality of various cancers, including colorectal cancer. Anticancer effect of aspirin represents one of the 'Provocative Questions' in cancer research. Experimental and clinical studies support a carcinogenic role for PTGS2 (cyclooxygenase-2), which is an important enzymatic mediator of inflammation, and a target of aspirin. Recent 'molecular pathological epidemiology' (MPE) research has shown that aspirin use is associated with better prognosis and clinical outcome in PIK3CA-mutated colorectal carcinoma, suggesting somatic PIK3CA mutation as a molecular biomarker that predicts response to aspirin therapy. The PI3K (phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphonate 3-kinase) enzyme has a pivotal role in the PI3K-AKT signaling pathway. Activating PIK3CA oncogene mutations are observed in various malignancies including breast cancer, ovarian cancer, brain tumor, hepatocellular carcinoma, lung cancer and colon cancer. The prevalence of PIK3CA mutations increases continuously from rectal to cecal cancers, supporting the 'colorectal continuum' paradigm, and an important interplay of gut microbiota and host immune/inflammatory reaction. MPE represents an interdisciplinary integrative science, conceptually defined as 'epidemiology of molecular heterogeneity of disease'. As exposome and interactome vary from person to person and influence disease process, each disease process is unique (the unique disease principle). Therefore, MPE concept and paradigm can extend to non-neoplastic diseases including diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases, metabolic diseases, and so on. MPE research opportunities are currently limited by paucity of tumor molecular data in the existing large-scale population-based studies. However, genomic, epigenomic and molecular pathology testings (for example, analyses for microsatellite instability, MLH1 promoter CpG island methylation, and KRAS and BRAF mutations in colorectal tumors) are becoming routine clinical practices. In order for integrative molecular and population science to be routine practice, we must first reform education curricula by integrating both population and molecular biological sciences. As consequences, next-generation hybrid molecular biological and population scientists can advance science, moving closer to personalized precision medicine and health care.

Integration of molecular pathology, epidemiology and social science for global precision medicine

The precision medicine concept and the unique disease principle imply that each patient has unique pathogenic processes resulting from heterogeneous cellular genetic and epigenetic alterations and interactions between cells (including immune cells) and exposures, including dietary, environmental, microbial and lifestyle factors. As a core method field in population health science and medicine, epidemiology is a growing scientific discipline that can analyze disease risk factors and develop statistical methodologies to maximize utilization of big data on populations and disease pathology. The evolving transdisciplinary field of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) can advance biomedical and health research by linking exposures to molecular pathologic signatures, enhancing causal inference and identifying potential biomarkers for clinical impact. The MPE approach can be applied to any diseases, although it has been most commonly used in neoplastic diseases (including breast, lung and colorectal cancers) because of availability of various molecular diagnostic tests. However, use of state-of-the-art genomic, epigenomic and other omic technologies and expensive drugs in modern healthcare systems increases racial, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities. To address this, we propose to integrate molecular pathology, epidemiology and social science. Social epidemiology integrates the latter two fields. The integrative social MPE model can embrace sociology, economics and precision medicine, address global health disparities and inequalities, and elucidate biological effects of social environments, behaviors and networks. We foresee advancements of molecular medicine, including molecular diagnostics, biomedical imaging and targeted therapeutics, which should benefit individuals in a global population, by means of an interdisciplinary approach of integrative MPE and social health science.

A Prospective Study of Smoking and Risk of Synchronous Colorectal Cancers

OBJECTIVES

Cigarette smoking has been linked to somatic genetic and epigenetic aberrations, including CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP)-high, microsatellite instability (MSI)-high and BRAF mutation. These molecular features have been associated with synchronous primary colorectal cancers (CRCs). Thus, we examined the hypothesis that smoking might be associated with the risk of synchronous CRCs.

METHODS

Within the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and Nurses' Health Study, we examined the relationship of smoking and incidence of CRC according to tumor synchronicity, using duplication-method Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

We confirmed 1,981 solitary CRC and 45 synchronous CRC cases during follow-up of 134,305 individuals. CRC risk associated with smoking differed significantly by tumor synchronicity status (P_{heterogeneity}<0.001). When comparing current smokers with never smokers, multivariable hazard ratios (HR) were 5.27 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.08-13.40) for synchronous CRCs and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.83-1.14) for solitary CRC. Similarly, differential associations were observed when examining cumulative pack-years smoked (P_{heterogeneity}=0.006). Smoking cessation for ≥10 years relative to current smoking might reduce the risk of synchronous CRCs (multivariable HR=0.42; 95% CI, 0.19-0.95), but not solitary CRC (multivariable HR=1.10; 95% CI, 0.94-1.29; P_{heterogeneity}=0.001). Comparing current and former smokers with never smokers, multivariable HRs for synchronous CRCs were significantly higher than those of solitary CRC positive for either CIMP-high, MSI-high, or BRAF mutation (P_{heterogeneity}=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking is associated with an elevated risk of synchronous CRCs. Our data support a model where smoking contributes to an etiologic field effect that favors these somatic molecular alterations and the development of multiple primary tumors.