Cryptic multiple hypotheses testing in linear models: overestimated effect sizes and the winner's curse

Fitting generalised linear models (GLMs) with more than one predictor has become the standard method of analysis in evolutionary and behavioural research. Often, GLMs are used for exploratory data analysis, where one starts with a complex full model including interaction terms and then simplifies by removing non-significant terms. While this approach can be useful, it is problematic if significant effects are interpreted as if they arose from a single a priori hypothesis test. This is because model selection involves cryptic multiple hypothesis testing, a fact that has only rarely been acknowledged or quantified. We show that the probability of finding at least one 'significant' effect is high, even if all null hypotheses are true (e.g. 40% when starting with four predictors and their two-way interactions). This probability is close to theoretical expectations when the sample size (N) is large relative to the number of predictors including interactions (k). In contrast, type I error rates strongly exceed even those expectations when model simplification is applied to models that are over-fitted before simplification (low N/k ratio). The increase in false-positive results arises primarily from an overestimation of effect sizes among significant predictors, leading to upward-biased effect sizes that often cannot be reproduced in follow-up studies ('the winner's curse'). Despite having their own problems, full model tests and P value adjustments can be used as a guide to how frequently type I errors arise by sampling variation alone. We favour the presentation of full models, since they best reflect the range of predictors investigated and ensure a balanced representation also of non-significant results.

Diabetes: Models, Signals, and Control

The control of diabetes is an interdisciplinary endeavor, which includes a significant biomedical engineering component, with traditions of success beginning in the early 1960s. It began with modeling of the insulin-glucose system, and progressed to large-scale in silico experiments, and automated closed-loop control (artificial pancreas). Here, we follow these engineering efforts through the last, almost 50 years. We begin with the now classic minimal modeling approach and discuss a number of subsequent models, which have recently resulted in the first in silico simulation model accepted as substitute to animal trials in the quest for optimal diabetes control. We then review metabolic monitoring, with a particular emphasis on the new continuous glucose sensors, on the analyses of their time-series signals, and on the opportunities that they present for automation of diabetes control. Finally, we review control strategies that have been successfully employed in vivo or in silico, presenting a promise for the development of a future artificial pancreas and, in particular, discuss a modular architecture for building closed-loop control systems, including insulin delivery and patient safety supervision layers. We conclude with a brief discussion of the unique interactions between human physiology, behavioral events, engineering modeling and control relevant to diabetes.

Recent developments in parameter estimation and structure identification of biochemical and genomic systems

The organization, regulation and dynamical responses of biological systems are in many cases too complex to allow intuitive predictions and require the support of mathematical modeling for quantitative assessments and a reliable understanding of system functioning. All steps of constructing mathematical models for biological systems are challenging, but arguably the most difficult task among them is the estimation of model parameters and the identification of the structure and regulation of the underlying biological networks. Recent advancements in modern high-throughput techniques have been allowing the generation of time series data that characterize the dynamics of genomic, proteomic, metabolic, and physiological responses and enable us, at least in principle, to tackle estimation and identification tasks using 'top-down' or 'inverse' approaches. While the rewards of a successful inverse estimation or identification are great, the process of extracting structural and regulatory information is technically difficult. The challenges can generally be categorized into four areas, namely, issues related to the data, the model, the mathematical structure of the system, and the optimization and support algorithms. Many recent articles have addressed inverse problems within the modeling framework of Biochemical Systems Theory (BST). BST was chosen for these tasks because of its unique structural flexibility and the fact that the structure and regulation of a biological system are mapped essentially one-to-one onto the parameters of the describing model. The proposed methods mainly focused on various optimization algorithms, but also on support techniques, including methods for circumventing the time consuming numerical integration of systems of differential equations, smoothing overly noisy data, estimating slopes of time series, reducing the complexity of the inference task, and constraining the parameter search space. Other methods targeted issues of data preprocessing, detection and amelioration of model redundancy, and model-free or model-based structure identification. The total number of proposed methods and their applications has by now exceeded one hundred, which makes it difficult for the newcomer, as well as the expert, to gain a comprehensive overview of available algorithmic options and limitations. To facilitate the entry into the field of inverse modeling within BST and related modeling areas, the article presented here reviews the field and proposes an operational 'work-flow' that guides the user through the estimation process, identifies possibly problematic steps, and suggests corresponding solutions based on the specific characteristics of the various available algorithms. The article concludes with a discussion of the present state of the art and with a description of open questions.

Degeneracy in model parameter estimation for multi-compartmental diffusion in neuronal tissue

The ultimate promise of diffusion MRI (dMRI) models is specificity to neuronal microstructure, which may lead to distinct clinical biomarkers using noninvasive imaging. While multi-compartment models are a common approach to interpret water diffusion in the brain in vivo, the estimation of their parameters from the dMRI signal remains an unresolved problem. Practically, even when q space is highly oversampled, nonlinear fit outputs suffer from heavy bias and poor precision. So far, this has been alleviated by fixing some of the model parameters to a priori values, for improved precision at the expense of accuracy. Here we use a representative two-compartment model to show that fitting fails to determine the five model parameters from over 60 measurement points. For the first time, we identify the reasons for this poor performance. The first reason is the existence of two local minima in the parameter space for the objective function of the fitting procedure. These minima correspond to qualitatively different sets of parameters, yet they both lie within biophysically plausible ranges. We show that, at realistic signal-to-noise ratio values, choosing between the two minima based on the associated objective function values is essentially impossible. Second, there is an ensemble of very low objective function values around each of these minima in the form of a pipe. The existence of such a direction in parameter space, along which the objective function profile is very flat, explains the bias and large uncertainty in parameter estimation, and the spurious parameter correlations: in the presence of noise, the minimum can be randomly displaced by a very large amount along each pipe. Our results suggest that the biophysical interpretation of dMRI model parameters crucially depends on establishing which of the minima is closer to the biophysical reality and the size of the uncertainty associated with each parameter.

Combining the 'bottom up' and 'top down' approaches in pharmacokinetic modelling: fitting PBPK models to observed clinical data

Pharmacokinetic models range from being entirely exploratory and empirical, to semi-mechanistic and ultimately complex physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. This choice is conditional on the modelling purpose as well as the amount and quality of the available data. The main advantage of PBPK models is that they can be used to extrapolate outside the studied population and experimental conditions. The trade-off for this advantage is a complex system of differential equations with a considerable number of model parameters. When these parameters cannot be informed from in vitro or in silico experiments they are usually optimized with respect to observed clinical data. Parameter estimation in complex models is a challenging task associated with many methodological issues which are discussed here with specific recommendations. Concepts such as structural and practical identifiability are described with regards to PBPK modelling and the value of experimental design and sensitivity analyses is sketched out. Parameter estimation approaches are discussed, while we also highlight the importance of not neglecting the covariance structure between model parameters and the uncertainty and population variability that is associated with them. Finally the possibility of using model order reduction techniques and minimal semi-mechanistic models that retain the physiological-mechanistic nature only in the parts of the model which are relevant to the desired modelling purpose is emphasized. Careful attention to all the above issues allows us to integrate successfully information from in vitro or in silico experiments together with information deriving from observed clinical data and develop mechanistically sound models with clinical relevance.

Statistical modeling of SAR images: a survey

Statistical modeling is essential to SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) image interpretation. It aims to describe SAR images through statistical methods and reveal the characteristics of these images. Moreover, statistical modeling can provide a technical support for a comprehensive understanding of terrain scattering mechanism, which helps to develop algorithms for effective image interpretation and creditable image simulation. Numerous statistical models have been developed to describe SAR image data, and the purpose of this paper is to categorize and evaluate these models. We first summarize the development history and the current researching state of statistical modeling, then different SAR image models developed from the product model are mainly discussed in detail. Relevant issues are also discussed. Several promising directions for future research are concluded at last.

Assessing cognitive processes with diffusion model analyses: a tutorial based on fast-dm-30

Diffusion models can be used to infer cognitive processes involved in fast binary decision tasks. The model assumes that information is accumulated continuously until one of two thresholds is hit. In the analysis, response time distributions from numerous trials of the decision task are used to estimate a set of parameters mapping distinct cognitive processes. In recent years, diffusion model analyses have become more and more popular in different fields of psychology. This increased popularity is based on the recent development of several software solutions for the parameter estimation. Although these programs make the application of the model relatively easy, there is a shortage of knowledge about different steps of a state-of-the-art diffusion model study. In this paper, we give a concise tutorial on diffusion modeling, and we present fast-dm-30, a thoroughly revised and extended version of the fast-dm software (Voss and Voss, 2007) for diffusion model data analysis. The most important improvement of the fast-dm version is the possibility to choose between different optimization criteria (i.e., Maximum Likelihood, Chi-Square, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov), which differ in applicability for different data sets.

On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics

Models that deal with the individual level of populations have shown the importance of stochasticity in ecology, epidemiology and evolution. An increasingly common approach to studying these models is through stochastic (event-driven) simulation. One striking disadvantage of this approach is the need for a large number of replicates to determine the range of expected behaviour. Here, for a class of stochastic models called Markov processes, we present results that overcome this difficulty and provide valuable insights, but which have been largely ignored by applied researchers. For these models, the so-called Kolmogorov forward equation (also called the ensemble or master equation) allows one to simultaneously consider the probability of each possible state occurring. Irrespective of the complexities and nonlinearities of population dynamics, this equation is linear and has a natural matrix formulation that provides many analytical insights into the behaviour of stochastic populations and allows rapid evaluation of process dynamics. Here, using epidemiological models as a template, these ensemble equations are explored and results are compared with traditional stochastic simulations. In addition, we describe further advantages of the matrix formulation of dynamics, providing simple exact methods for evaluating expected eradication (extinction) times of diseases, for comparing expected total costs of possible control programmes and for estimation of disease parameters.

Sloppy models, parameter uncertainty, and the role of experimental design

Computational models are increasingly used to understand and predict complex biological phenomena. These models contain many unknown parameters, at least some of which are difficult to measure directly, and instead are estimated by fitting to time-course data. Previous work has suggested that even with precise data sets, many parameters are unknowable by trajectory measurements. We examined this question in the context of a pathway model of epidermal growth factor (EGF) and neuronal growth factor (NGF) signaling. Computationally, we examined a palette of experimental perturbations that included different doses of EGF and NGF as well as single and multiple gene knockdowns and overexpressions. While no single experiment could accurately estimate all of the parameters, experimental design methodology identified a set of five complementary experiments that could. These results suggest optimism for the prospects for calibrating even large models, that the success of parameter estimation is intimately linked to the experimental perturbations used, and that experimental design methodology is important for parameter fitting of biological models and likely for the accuracy that can be expected from them.

Density-dependent intraspecific competition in the larval stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): revisiting the current paradigm

Density-dependent intraspecific competition has been considered an important determinant of the dynamics of larval stages of Aedes aegypti. A model was published in 1984 providing a mathematical description of this density dependence, based on field data, that has since been widely used. This description, however, is based on the strong assumption that all mortality is density-dependent. We re-examine the data without this premise and find a reduced importance of density dependence, as well as a different functional form. Based on these discrepancies, we emphasize that the characterization of density dependence in the larval stages of Ae. aegypti should be based on a more complete dataset, and we use artificially generated data to explore how such additional information could help developing a better description of this density dependence. We review other empirical studies on larval competition, discuss the need for further dedicated studies, and provide a few simple guidelines for the design of such studies.

Estimating impossible curves using NONMEM

1. On fitting model equations to experimental data, the situation may arise that individual subjects provide insufficient information to obtain adequate parameter estimates due to the fact that not all aspects are exhibited by all subjects or that the models are simply too complex. This may be solved by applying nonlinear mixed effect modelling to the data, which integrates the information provided by different subjects. 2. We aim to provide insight into the methodology and its use in these situations, illustrated by three examples: determination of pharmacokinetics in a rising dose design, where the lower doses provide insufficient information (due to assay limitations) to estimate terminal half-life; determination of the kinetics of the low molecular weight heparin enoxaparine (Clexane) using anti-Xa activity, effectively dealing with lingering low/basal activity; simultaneous estimation of the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin (Fragmin) after subcutaneous and intravenous administration.

Model Complexity in Diffusion Modeling: Benefits of Making the Model More Parsimonious

The diffusion model (Ratcliff, 1978) takes into account the reaction time distributions of both correct and erroneous responses from binary decision tasks. This high degree of information usage allows the estimation of different parameters mapping cognitive components such as speed of information accumulation or decision bias. For three of the four main parameters (drift rate, starting point, and non-decision time) trial-to-trial variability is allowed. We investigated the influence of these variability parameters both drawing on simulation studies and on data from an empirical test-retest study using different optimization criteria and different trial numbers. Our results suggest that less complex models (fixing intertrial variabilities of the drift rate and the starting point at zero) can improve the estimation of the psychologically most interesting parameters (drift rate, threshold separation, starting point, and non-decision time).

Learning partial differential equations via data discovery and sparse optimization

We investigate the problem of learning an evolution equation directly from some given data. This work develops a learning algorithm to identify the terms in the underlying partial differential equations and to approximate the coefficients of the terms only using data. The algorithm uses sparse optimization in order to perform feature selection and parameter estimation. The features are data driven in the sense that they are constructed using nonlinear algebraic equations on the spatial derivatives of the data. Several numerical experiments show the proposed method's robustness to data noise and size, its ability to capture the true features of the data, and its capability of performing additional analytics. Examples include shock equations, pattern formation, fluid flow and turbulence, and oscillatory convection.

A New Chaotic System with a Self-Excited Attractor: Entropy Measurement, Signal Encryption, and Parameter Estimation

In this paper, we introduce a new chaotic system that is used for an engineering application of the signal encryption. It has some interesting features, and its successful implementation and manufacturing were performed via a real circuit as a random number generator. In addition, we provide a parameter estimation method to extract chaotic model parameters from the real data of the chaotic circuit. The parameter estimation method is based on the attractor distribution modeling in the state space, which is compatible with the chaotic system characteristics. Here, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used as a main part of cost function computations in the parameter estimation method. To optimize the cost function, we also apply two recent efficient optimization methods: WOA (Whale Optimization Algorithm), and MVO (Multi-Verse Optimizer) algorithms. The results show the success of the parameter estimation procedure.

A methodological paradigm for patient-specific multi-scale CFD simulations: from clinical measurements to parameter estimates for individual analysis

A new framework for estimation of lumped (for instance, Windkessel) model parameters from uncertain clinical measurements is presented. The ultimate aim is to perform patient-specific haemodynamic analysis. This framework is based on sensitivity analysis tools and the sequential estimation approach of the unscented Kalman filter. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation are performed in lumped parameter models, which act as reduced order surrogates of the 3D domain for haemodynamic analysis. While the goal of sensitivity analysis is to assess potential identifiability problems, the unscented Kalman filter estimation leads to parameter estimates based on clinical measurements and modelling assumptions. An application of such analysis and parameter estimation methodology is demonstrated for synthetic and real data. Equality constraints on various physiological parameters are enforced. Since the accuracy of the Windkessel parameter estimates depends on the lumped parameter representativeness, the latter is iteratively improved by running few 3D simulations while simultaneously improving the former. Such a method is applied on a patient-specific aortic coarctation case. Less than 3% and 9% errors between the clinically measured quantities and 3D simulation results for rest and stress are obtained, respectively. Knowledge on how these Windkessel parameters change from rest to stress can thus be learned by such an approach. Lastly, it is demonstrated that the proposed approach is capable of dealing with a wide variety of measurements and cases where the pressure and flow clinical measurements are not taken simultaneously.

Automated Tuning for Parameter Identification and Uncertainty Quantification in Multi-scale Coronary Simulations

Atherosclerotic coronary artery disease, which can result in coronary artery stenosis, acute coronary artery occlusion, and eventually myocardial infarction, is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Non-invasive characterization of coronary blood flow is important to improve understanding, prevention, and treatment of this disease. Computational simulations can now produce clinically relevant hemodynamic quantities using only non-invasive measurements, combining detailed three dimensional fluid mechanics with physiological models in a multiscale framework. These models, however, require specification of numerous input parameters and are typically tuned manually without accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data, hindering their application to large clinical studies. We propose an automatic, Bayesian, approach to parameter estimation based on adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling that assimilates non-invasive quantities commonly acquired in routine clinical care, quantifies the uncertainty in the estimated parameters and computes the confidence in local predicted hemodynamic indicators.

Model-based MR parameter mapping with sparsity constraints: parameter estimation and performance bounds

Magnetic resonance parameter mapping (e.g., T1 mapping, T2 mapping, T*2 mapping) is a valuable tool for tissue characterization. However, its practical utility has been limited due to long data acquisition time. This paper addresses this problem with a new model-based parameter mapping method. The proposed method utilizes a formulation that integrates the explicit signal model with sparsity constraints on the model parameters, enabling direct estimation of the parameters of interest from highly undersampled, noisy k-space data. An efficient greedy-pursuit algorithm is described to solve the resulting constrained parameter estimation problem. Estimation-theoretic bounds are also derived to analyze the benefits of incorporating sparsity constraints and benchmark the performance of the proposed method. The theoretical properties and empirical performance of the proposed method are illustrated in a T2 mapping application example using computer simulations.

A practical approach to parameter estimation applied to model predicting heart rate regulation

Mathematical models have long been used for prediction of dynamics in biological systems. Recently, several efforts have been made to render these models patient specific. One way to do so is to employ techniques to estimate parameters that enable model based prediction of observed quantities. Knowledge of variation in parameters within and between groups of subjects have potential to provide insight into biological function. Often it is not possible to estimate all parameters in a given model, in particular if the model is complex and the data is sparse. However, it may be possible to estimate a subset of model parameters reducing the complexity of the problem. In this study, we compare three methods that allow identification of parameter subsets that can be estimated given a model and a set of data. These methods will be used to estimate patient specific parameters in a model predicting baroreceptor feedback regulation of heart rate during head-up tilt. The three methods include: structured analysis of the correlation matrix, analysis via singular value decomposition followed by QR factorization, and identification of the subspace closest to the one spanned by eigenvectors of the model Hessian. Results showed that all three methods facilitate identification of a parameter subset. The "best" subset was obtained using the structured correlation method, though this method was also the most computationally intensive. Subsets obtained using the other two methods were easier to compute, but analysis revealed that the final subsets contained correlated parameters. In conclusion, to avoid lengthy computations, these three methods may be combined for efficient identification of parameter subsets.

Coupled personalization of cardiac electrophysiology models for prediction of ischaemic ventricular tachycardia

In order to translate the important progress in cardiac electrophysiology modelling of the last decades into clinical applications, there is a requirement to make macroscopic models that can be used for the planning and performance of the clinical procedures. This requires model personalization, i.e. estimation of patient-specific model parameters and computations compatible with clinical constraints. Simplified macroscopic models can allow a rapid estimation of the tissue conductivity, but are often unreliable to predict arrhythmias. Conversely, complex biophysical models are more complete and have mechanisms of arrhythmogenesis and arrhythmia sustainibility, but are computationally expensive and their predictions at the organ scale still have to be validated. We present a coupled personalization framework that combines the power of the two kinds of models while keeping the computational complexity tractable. A simple eikonal model is used to estimate the conductivity parameters, which are then used to set the parameters of a biophysical model, the Mitchell-Schaeffer (MS) model. Additional parameters related to action potential duration restitution curves for the tissue are further estimated for the MS model. This framework is applied to a clinical dataset derived from a hybrid X-ray/magnetic resonance imaging and non-contact mapping procedure on a patient with heart failure. This personalized MS model is then used to perform an in silico simulation of a ventricular tachycardia (VT) stimulation protocol to predict the induction of VT. This proof of concept opens up possibilities of using VT induction modelling in order to both assess the risk of VT for a given patient and also to plan a potential subsequent radio-frequency ablation strategy to treat VT.

The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea

Objectives

The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.

Methods

Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.

Results

Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.

Conclusion

It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

How to deal with parameters for whole-cell modelling

Dynamical systems describing whole cells are on the verge of becoming a reality. But as models of reality, they are only useful if we have realistic parameters for the molecular reaction rates and cell physiological processes. There is currently no suitable framework to reliably estimate hundreds, let alone thousands, of reaction rate parameters. Here, we map out the relative weaknesses and promises of different approaches aimed at redressing this issue. While suitable procedures for estimation or inference of the whole (vast) set of parameters will, in all likelihood, remain elusive, some hope can be drawn from the fact that much of the cellular behaviour may be explained in terms of smaller sets of parameters. Identifying such parameter sets and assessing their behaviour is now becoming possible even for very large systems of equations, and we expect such methods to become central tools in the development and analysis of whole-cell models.

Extending approximate Bayesian computation with supervised machine learning to infer demographic history from genetic polymorphisms using DIYABC Random Forest

Simulation-based methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are well-adapted to the analysis of complex scenarios of populations and species genetic history. In this context, supervised machine learning (SML) methods provide attractive statistical solutions to conduct efficient inferences about scenario choice and parameter estimation. The Random Forest methodology (RF) is a powerful ensemble of SML algorithms used for classification or regression problems. Random Forest allows conducting inferences at a low computational cost, without preliminary selection of the relevant components of the ABC summary statistics, and bypassing the derivation of ABC tolerance levels. We have implemented a set of RF algorithms to process inferences using simulated data sets generated from an extended version of the population genetic simulator implemented in DIYABC v2.1.0. The resulting computer package, named DIYABC Random Forest v1.0, integrates two functionalities into a user-friendly interface: the simulation under custom evolutionary scenarios of different types of molecular data (microsatellites, DNA sequences or SNPs) and RF treatments including statistical tools to evaluate the power and accuracy of inferences. We illustrate the functionalities of DIYABC Random Forest v1.0 for both scenario choice and parameter estimation through the analysis of pseudo-observed and real data sets corresponding to pool-sequencing and individual-sequencing SNP data sets. Because of the properties inherent to the implemented RF methods and the large feature vector (including various summary statistics and their linear combinations) available for SNP data, DIYABC Random Forest v1.0 can efficiently contribute to the analysis of large SNP data sets to make inferences about complex population genetic histories.

Probabilistic inference of short-term synaptic plasticity in neocortical microcircuits

Short-term synaptic plasticity is highly diverse across brain area, cortical layer, cell type, and developmental stage. Since short-term plasticity (STP) strongly shapes neural dynamics, this diversity suggests a specific and essential role in neural information processing. Therefore, a correct characterization of short-term synaptic plasticity is an important step towards understanding and modeling neural systems. Phenomenological models have been developed, but they are usually fitted to experimental data using least-mean-square methods. We demonstrate that for typical synaptic dynamics such fitting may give unreliable results. As a solution, we introduce a Bayesian formulation, which yields the posterior distribution over the model parameters given the data. First, we show that common STP protocols yield broad distributions over some model parameters. Using our result we propose a experimental protocol to more accurately determine synaptic dynamics parameters. Next, we infer the model parameters using experimental data from three different neocortical excitatory connection types. This reveals connection-specific distributions, which we use to classify synaptic dynamics. Our approach to demarcate connection-specific synaptic dynamics is an important improvement on the state of the art and reveals novel features from existing data.

Resolving degeneracy in diffusion MRI biophysical model parameter estimation using double diffusion encoding

PURPOSE

Biophysical tissue models are increasingly used in the interpretation of diffusion MRI (dMRI) data, with the potential to provide specific biomarkers of brain microstructural changes. However, it has been shown recently that, in the general Standard Model, parameter estimation from dMRI data is ill-conditioned even when very high b-values are applied. We analyze this issue for the Neurite Orientation Dispersion and Density Imaging with Diffusivity Assessment (NODDIDA) model and demonstrate that its extension from single diffusion encoding (SDE) to double diffusion encoding (DDE) resolves the ill-posedness for intermediate diffusion weightings, producing an increase in accuracy and precision of the parameter estimation.

METHODS

We analyze theoretically the cumulant expansion up to fourth order in b of SDE and DDE signals. Additionally, we perform in silico experiments to compare SDE and DDE capabilities under similar noise conditions.

RESULTS

We prove analytically that DDE provides invariant information non-accessible from SDE, which makes the NODDIDA parameter estimation injective. The in silico experiments show that DDE reduces the bias and mean square error of the estimation along the whole feasible region of 5D model parameter space.

CONCLUSIONS

DDE adds additional information for estimating the model parameters, unexplored by SDE. We show, as an example, that this is sufficient to solve the previously reported degeneracies in the NODDIDA model parameter estimation.

Genetic algorithms for finite mixture model based voxel classification in neuroimaging

Finite mixture models (FMMs) are an indispensable tool for unsupervised classification in brain imaging. Fitting an FMM to the data leads to a complex optimization problem. This optimization problem is difficult to solve by standard local optimization methods, such as the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, if a principled initialization is not available. In this paper, we propose a new global optimization algorithm for the FMM parameter estimation problem, which is based on real coded genetic algorithms. Our specific contributions are two-fold: 1) we propose to use blended crossover in order to reduce the premature convergence problem to its minimum and 2) we introduce a completely new permutation operator specifically meant for the FMM parameter estimation. In addition to improving the optimization results, the permutation operator allows for imposing biologically meaningful constraints to the FMM parameter values. We also introduce a hybrid of the genetic algorithm and the EM algorithm for efficient solution of multidimensional FMM fitting problems. We compare our algorithm to the self-annealing EM-algorithm and a standard real coded genetic algorithm with the voxel classification tasks within the brain imaging. The algorithms are tested on synthetic data as well as real three-dimensional image data from human magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, and mouse brain MRI. The tissue classification results by our method are shown to be consistently more reliable and accurate than with the competing parameter estimation methods.