Population Genomics of the Maize Pathogen Ustilago maydis: Demographic History and Role of Virulence Clusters in Adaptation

The tight interaction between pathogens and their hosts results in reciprocal selective forces that impact the genetic diversity of the interacting species. The footprints of this selection differ between pathosystems because of distinct life-history traits, demographic histories, or genome architectures. Here, we studied the genome-wide patterns of genetic diversity of 22 isolates of the causative agent of the corn smut disease, Ustilago maydis, originating from five locations in Mexico, the presumed center of origin of this species. In this species, many genes encoding secreted effector proteins reside in so-called virulence clusters in the genome, an arrangement that is so far not found in other filamentous plant pathogens. Using a combination of population genomic statistical analyses, we assessed the geographical, historical, and genome-wide variation of genetic diversity in this fungal pathogen. We report evidence of two partially admixed subpopulations that are only loosely associated with geographic origin. Using the multiple sequentially Markov coalescent model, we inferred the demographic history of the two pathogen subpopulations over the last 0.5 Myr. We show that both populations experienced a recent strong bottleneck starting around 10,000 years ago, coinciding with the assumed time of maize domestication. Although the genome average genetic diversity is low compared with other fungal pathogens, we estimated that the rate of nonsynonymous adaptive substitutions is three times higher in genes located within virulence clusters compared with nonclustered genes, including nonclustered effector genes. These results highlight the role that these singular genomic regions play in the evolution of this pathogen.

Bayesian Nonparametric Inference of Population Size Changes from Sequential Genealogies

Sophisticated inferential tools coupled with the coalescent model have recently emerged for estimating past population sizes from genomic data. Recent methods that model recombination require small sample sizes, make constraining assumptions about population size changes, and do not report measures of uncertainty for estimates. Here, we develop a Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric method coupled with a sequentially Markov coalescent model that allows accurate inference of population sizes over time from a set of genealogies. In contrast to current methods, our approach considers a broad class of recombination events, including those that do not change local genealogies. We show that our method outperforms recent likelihood-based methods that rely on discretization of the parameter space. We illustrate the application of our method to multiple demographic histories, including population bottlenecks and exponential growth. In simulation, our Bayesian approach produces point estimates four times more accurate than maximum-likelihood estimation (based on the sum of absolute differences between the truth and the estimated values). Further, our method's credible intervals for population size as a function of time cover 90% of true values across multiple demographic scenarios, enabling formal hypothesis testing about population size differences over time. Using genealogies estimated with ARGweaver, we apply our method to European and Yoruban samples from the 1000 Genomes Project and confirm key known aspects of population size history over the past 150,000 years.

The SMC' is a highly accurate approximation to the ancestral recombination graph

Two sequentially Markov coalescent models (SMC and SMC') are available as tractable approximations to the ancestral recombination graph (ARG). We present a Markov process describing coalescence at two fixed points along a pair of sequences evolving under the SMC'. Using our Markov process, we derive a number of new quantities related to the pairwise SMC', thereby analytically quantifying for the first time the similarity between the SMC' and the ARG. We use our process to show that the joint distribution of pairwise coalescence times at recombination sites under the SMC' is the same as it is marginally under the ARG, which demonstrates that the SMC' is, in a particular well-defined, intuitive sense, the most appropriate first-order sequentially Markov approximation to the ARG. Finally, we use these results to show that population size estimates under the pairwise SMC are asymptotically biased, while under the pairwise SMC' they are approximately asymptotically unbiased.

Estimating variable effective population sizes from multiple genomes: a sequentially markov conditional sampling distribution approach

Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times.