Improved Indicators for Subnational Unmet Antiretroviral Therapy Need in the Health System: Updates to the Naomi Model in 2023

BACKGROUND

Quantifying subnational need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is challenging because people living with HIV (PLHIV) access health facilities in areas that may differ from their residence. We defined and demonstrated new indicators for PLHIV treatment needed to guide health system target setting and resource allocation.

SETTING

Botswana.

METHODS

We extended Naomi, a Bayesian small-area model for estimating district-level HIV indicators from national household survey and HIV service delivery data. We used model outputs for ART seeking probabilities in neighboring districts to define the "PLHIV (attending)" indicator representing the estimated number of PLHIV who would seek treatment at health facilities in a district, and "Untreated PLHIV attending" representing gaps in ART service provision. Botswana 2021 district HIV estimates were used to demonstrate new outputs and assess the sensitivity to uncertainty in district population sizes.

RESULTS

Across districts of Botswana, estimated adult ART coverage in December 2021 ranged 90%-96%. In the capital city Gaborone, there were 50,400 resident PLHIV and 64,200 receiving ART, of whom 24% (95% CI: 20 to 32) were estimated to reside in neighboring districts. Applying ART attendance probabilities gave a "PLHIV attending" denominator of 68,300 and unmet treatment need of 4100 adults (95% CI: 3000 to 5500) for Gaborone health facilities. The facility-based "PLHIV attending" denominator was less-sensitive to fluctuations in district population size assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS

New indicators provided more consistent targets for HIV service provision, but are limited by ART data quality. This challenge will increase as treatment coverage reaches high levels and treatment gaps are smaller.

Visualizing Cancer Incidence and Mortality Estimates by Congressional Districts, United States 2012-2016

BACKGROUND

Cancer incidence and death rates in the United States are often published at the county or statelevels; examining cancer statistics at the congressional district (CD) level allows decision makers to better understand how cancer is impacting the specific populations they represent.

METHODS

Cancer incidence data were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Mortality data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. CD rates were estimated by assigning the county-level age-adjusted rates to the census block and weighting those by the block population proportion of the CD. Those weighted rates were then aggregated over the blocks within the CD to estimate the district rate. Incidence rate estimates for 406 CDs and death rate estimates for 436 CDs were reported according to the boundaries for the 115th Congress of the United States. Maps showing rate estimates for all cancers combined, lung/bronchus, colorectal, female breast, cervical, and prostate cancer are presented by sex and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

The distribution of cancer incidence and death rates by CDs show similar patterns to those that have been observed at the county and state levels, with the highest cancer incidence and death rates observed in CDs in the South and Eastern regions.

CONCLUSION

This examination of cancer rates at the CD-level provides data that can be used to inform cancer control strategies at the local and national levels. Displaying the data with the Data Visualizations tool makes it easily accessible to the public and decision makers.