Assigning trend-based conservation status despite high uncertainty

Estimates of temporal trends in species' occupancy are essential for conservation policy and planning, but limitations to the data and models often result in very high trend uncertainty. A critical source of uncertainty that degrades scientific credibility is that caused by disagreement among studies or models. Modelers are aware of this uncertainty but usually only partially estimate it and communicate it to decision makers. At the same time, there is growing awareness that full disclosure of uncertainty is critical for effective translation of science into policies and plans. But what are the most effective approaches to estimating uncertainty and communicating uncertainty to decision makers? We explored how alternative approaches to estimating and communicating uncertainty of species trends could affect decisions concerning conservation status of freshwater fishes. We used ensemble models to propagate trend uncertainty within and among models and communicated this uncertainty with categorical distributions of trend direction and magnitude. All approaches were designed to fit an established decision-making system used to assign species conservation status by the New Zealand government. Our results showed how approaches that failed to fully disclose uncertainty, while simplifying the information presented, could hamper species conservation or lead to ineffective decisions. We recommend an approach that was recently used effectively to communicate trend uncertainty to a panel responsible for setting the conservation status of New Zealand's freshwater fishes.

Biodiversity loss along a gradient of deforestation in Amazonian agricultural landscapes

Assessing how much management of agricultural landscapes, in addition to protected areas, can offset biodiversity erosion in the tropics is a central issue for conservation that still requires cross-taxonomic and landscape-scale studies. We measured the effects of Amazonia deforestation and subsequent land-use intensification in 6 agricultural areas (landscape scale), where we sampled plants and 4 animal groups (birds, earthworms, fruit flies, and moths). We assessed land-use intensification with a synthetic index based on landscape metrics (total area and relative percentages of land uses, edge density, mean patch density and diversity, and fractal structures at 5 dates from 1990 to 2007). Species richness decreased consistently as agricultural intensification increased despite slight differences in the responses of sampled groups. Globally, in moderately deforested landscapes species richness was relatively stable, and there was a clear threshold in biodiversity loss midway along the intensification gradient, mainly linked to a drop in forest cover and quality. Our results suggest anthropogenic landscapes with high-quality forest covering >40 % of the surface area may prevent biodiversity loss in Amazonia.

Effects of landscape design of forest reserves on Saproxylic beetle diversity

Increasing the density of natural reserves in the forest landscape may provide conservation benefits for biodiversity within and beyond reserve borders. We used 2 French data sets on saproxylic beetles and landscape cover of forest reserves (LCFR) to test this hypothesis: national standardized data derived from 252 assessment plots in managed and reserve stands in 9 lowland and 5 highland forests and data from the lowland Rambouillet forest, a forested landscape where a pioneer conservation policy led to creation of a dense network of reserves. Abundance of rare and common saproxylic species and total saproxylic species richness were higher in forest reserves than in adjacent managed stands only in highland forests. In the lowland regional case study, as LCFR increased total species richness and common species abundance in reserves increased. In this case study, when there were two or more reserve patches, rare species abundance inside reserves was higher and common species richness in managed stands was higher than when there was a single large reserve. Spillover and habitat amount affected ecological processes underlying these landscape reserve effects. When LCFR positively affected species richness and abundance in reserves or managed stands, >12-20% reserve cover led to the highest species diversity and abundance. This result is consistent with the target of 17% forested land area in reserves set at the Nagoya biodiversity summit in 2010. Therefore, to preserve biodiversity we recommend at least doubling the current proportion of forest reserves in European forested landscapes.