A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation

The objective of this study was to develop a prospectively applicable method for classifying comorbid conditions which might alter the risk of mortality for use in longitudinal studies. A weighted index that takes into account the number and the seriousness of comorbid disease was developed in a cohort of 559 medical patients. The 1-yr mortality rates for the different scores were: "0", 12% (181); "1-2", 26% (225); "3-4", 52% (71); and "greater than or equal to 5", 85% (82). The index was tested for its ability to predict risk of death from comorbid disease in the second cohort of 685 patients during a 10-yr follow-up. The percent of patients who died of comorbid disease for the different scores were: "0", 8% (588); "1", 25% (54); "2", 48% (25); "greater than or equal to 3", 59% (18). With each increased level of the comorbidity index, there were stepwise increases in the cumulative mortality attributable to comorbid disease (log rank chi 2 = 165; p less than 0.0001). In this longer follow-up, age was also a predictor of mortality (p less than 0.001). The new index performed similarly to a previous system devised by Kaplan and Feinstein. The method of classifying comorbidity provides a simple, readily applicable and valid method of estimating risk of death from comorbid disease for use in longitudinal studies. Further work in larger populations is still required to refine the approach because the number of patients with any given condition in this study was relatively small.

National Cancer Institute sponsored study of classifications of non-Hodgkin's lymphomas: summary and description of a working formulation for clinical usage. The Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma Pathologic Classification Project

An international multi-institutional clinicopathologic study of 1175 cases of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma sponsored by the National Institute has been completed. Histologic slides and clinical records were examined from previously untreated patients seen during the period between July 1971 and December 1975 at four institutions, three in the United States and one in Italy. The reproducibility and clinical relevance of the six major classifications of the non-Hodgkin's lymphomas was tested by six "expert" pathologists, each a proponent of a major classification, and six very experienced pathologists not identified with one of the major classifications. Immunologic methods were not employed in the study design. A summary of the methods employed and the conclusions of the study is described. The major conclusion was that all six classifications were valuable and comparable in reproducibility and clinical correlations. The clinical significance of a follicular architecture, independent of cell type was confirmed. A working formulation of non-Hodgkin's lymphomas is described which separates the disease into ten major types utilizing morphologic criteria only. Subtypes are also described which allow translation of all of the major classifications into comparable groups. Histologic criteria are presented for each major type and equivalent terms are given for each type in the six major classifications. The formulation is not proposed as a new classification but a means of translation among the various systems and to facilitate clinical comparisons of case reports and therapeutic trials. The report contains commentaries by five of the "expert" pathologists on the value and conclusions of this unique study.

Advanced heart failure treated with continuous-flow left ventricular assist device

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced heart failure have improved survival rates and quality of life when treated with implanted pulsatile-flow left ventricular assist devices as compared with medical therapy. New continuous-flow devices are smaller and may be more durable than the pulsatile-flow devices.

METHODS

In this randomized trial, we enrolled patients with advanced heart failure who were ineligible for transplantation, in a 2:1 ratio, to undergo implantation of a continuous-flow device (134 patients) or the currently approved pulsatile-flow device (66 patients). The primary composite end point was, at 2 years, survival free from disabling stroke and reoperation to repair or replace the device. Secondary end points included survival, frequency of adverse events, the quality of life, and functional capacity.

RESULTS

Preoperative characteristics were similar in the two treatment groups, with a median age of 64 years (range, 26 to 81), a mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 17%, and nearly 80% of patients receiving intravenous inotropic agents. The primary composite end point was achieved in more patients with continuous-flow devices than with pulsatile-flow devices (62 of 134 [46%] vs. 7 of 66 [11%]; P<0.001; hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27 to 0.54; P<0.001), and patients with continuous-flow devices had superior actuarial survival rates at 2 years (58% vs. 24%, P=0.008). Adverse events and device replacements were less frequent in patients with the continuous-flow device. The quality of life and functional capacity improved significantly in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with a continuous-flow left ventricular assist device in patients with advanced heart failure significantly improved the probability of survival free from stroke and device failure at 2 years as compared with a pulsatile device. Both devices significantly improved the quality of life and functional capacity. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00121485.)

Mortality and morbidity in patients receiving encainide, flecainide, or placebo. The Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

In the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial, designed to test the hypothesis that suppression of ventricular ectopy after a myocardial infarction reduces the incidence of sudden death, patients in whom ventricular ectopy could be suppressed with encainide, flecainide, or moricizine were randomly assigned to receive either active drug or placebo. The use of encainide and flecainide was discontinued because of excess mortality. We examined the mortality and morbidity after randomization to encainide or flecainide or their respective placebo.

RESULTS

Of 1498 patients, 857 were assigned to receive encainide or its placebo (432 to active drug and 425 to placebo) and 641 were assigned to receive flecainide or its placebo (323 to active drug and 318 to placebo). After a mean follow-up of 10 months, 89 patients had died: 59 of arrhythmia (43 receiving drug vs. 16 receiving placebo; P = 0.0004), 22 of nonarrhythmic cardiac causes (17 receiving drug vs. 5 receiving placebo; P = 0.01), and 8 of noncardiac causes (3 receiving drug vs. 5 receiving placebo). Almost all cardiac deaths not due to arrhythmia were attributed to acute myocardial infarction with shock (11 patients receiving drug and 3 receiving placebo) or to chronic congestive heart failure (4 receiving drug and 2 receiving placebo). There were no differences between the patients receiving active drug and those receiving placebo in the incidence of nonlethal disqualifying ventricular tachycardia, proarrhythmia, syncope, need for a permanent pacemaker, congestive heart failure, recurrent myocardial infarction, angina, or need for coronary-artery bypass grafting or angioplasty.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an excess of deaths due to arrhythmia and deaths due to shock after acute recurrent myocardial infarction in patients treated with encainide or flecainide. Nonlethal events, however, were equally distributed between the active-drug and placebo groups. The mechanisms underlying the excess mortality during treatment with encainide or flecainide remain unknown.

Two hundred gastrointestinal stromal tumors: recurrence patterns and prognostic factors for survival

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the outcome of 200 patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) who were treated at a single institution and followed up prospectively.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

A GIST is a visceral sarcoma that arises from the gastrointestinal tract. Surgical resection is the mainstay of treatment because adjuvant therapy is unproven.

METHODS

Two hundred patients with malignant GIST were admitted and treated at Memorial Hospital during the past 16 years. Patient, tumor, and treatment variables were analyzed to identify patterns of tumor recurrence and factors that predict survival.

RESULTS

Of the 200 patients, 46% had primary disease without metastasis, 47% had metastasis, and 7% had isolated local recurrence. In patients with primary disease who underwent complete resection of gross disease (n = 80), the 5-year actuarial survival rate was 54%, and survival was predicted by tumor size but not microscopic margins of resection. Recurrence of disease after resection was predominantly intraabdominal and involved the original tumor site, peritoneum, and liver.

CONCLUSIONS

GISTs are uncommon sarcomas. Tumor size predicts disease-specific survival in patients with primary disease who undergo complete gross resection. Tumor recurrence tends to be intraabdominal. Investigational protocols are indicated to reduce the rate of recurrence after resection and to improve the outcome for patients with GIST.

Effects of changes in fat, fish, and fibre intakes on death and myocardial reinfarction: diet and reinfarction trial (DART)

A randomised controlled trial with a factorial design was done to examine the effects of dietary intervention in the secondary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI). 2033 men who had recovered from MI were allocated to receive or not to receive advice on each of three dietary factors: a reduction in fat intake and an increase in the ratio of polyunsaturated to saturated fat, an increase in fatty fish intake, and an increase in cereal fibre intake. The advice on fat was not associated with any difference in mortality, perhaps because it produced only a small reduction (3-4%) in serum cholesterol. The subjects advised to eat fatty fish had a 29% reduction in 2 year all-cause mortality compared with those not so advised. This effect, which was significant, was not altered by adjusting for ten potential confounding factors. Subjects given fibre advice had a slightly higher mortality than other subjects (not significant). The 2 year incidence of reinfarction plus death from ischaemic heart disease was not significantly affected by any of the dietary regimens. A modest intake of fatty fish (two or three portions per week) may reduce mortality in men who have recovered from MI.

Nephrectomy followed by interferon alfa-2b compared with interferon alfa-2b alone for metastatic renal-cell cancer

BACKGROUND

The value of nephrectomy in metastatic renal-cell cancer has long been debated. Several nonrandomized studies suggest a higher rate of response to systemic therapy and longer survival in patients who have undergone nephrectomy.

METHODS

We randomly assigned patients with metastatic renal-cell cancer who were acceptable candidates for nephrectomy to undergo radical nephrectomy followed by therapy with interferon alfa-2b or to receive interferon alfa-2b therapy alone. The primary end point was survival, and the secondary end point was a response of the tumor to treatment.

RESULTS

The median survival of 120 eligible patients assigned to surgery followed by interferon was 11.1 months, and among the 121 eligible patients assigned to interferon alone it was 8.1 months (P=0.05). The difference in median survival between the two groups was independent of performance status, metastatic site, and the presence or absence of a measurable metastatic lesion.

CONCLUSIONS

Nephrectomy followed by interferon therapy results in longer survival among patients with metastatic renal-cell cancer than does interferon therapy alone.

Predictability of the postoperative course of Crohn's disease

Eighty-nine patients who had been treated by ileal resection for Crohn's disease between 1979 and 1984 were included in a prospective cohort follow up to study the natural course of early postoperative lesions. Recurrent lesions were observed endoscopically in the neoterminal ileum within 1 year of surgery in 73% of the patients, although only 20% of the patients had symptoms. Three years after surgery, the endoscopic recurrence rate had increased to 85% and symptomatic recurrence occurred in 34%. The ultimate course of the disease was best predicted by the severity of the early postoperative lesions, as observed at ileoscopy. Clinical parameters that influenced outcome were preoperative disease activity, the indication for surgery, and the number of surgical resections. When patients were stratified for preoperative disease activity, the severity of lesions found at endoscopy remained a strong predictive factor for symptomatic recurrence. In 22 other patients submitted to "curative" ileal resection and ileocolonic anastomosis, the segment to be used as neoterminal ileum was carefully examined during surgery, and two large biopsies were taken before making the anastomosis. An ileoscopy was performed 6 months after surgery. Although all patients had a macroscopically normal neoterminal ileum and 19 had entirely normal biopsies at the time of surgery, 21 patients were found at ileoscopy to have developed ileitis involving a 15-cm segment (range, 4-30 cm), and 20 had unequivocal microscopic lesions on biopsies. These studies suggest that early lesions in the neoterminal ileum after Crohn's resection do not originate from microscopic inflammation present in this bowel segment at the time of surgery. The early postoperative lesions in the neoterminal ileum seem to be a suitable model to study the pathogenesis of Crohn's disease and also to evaluate new therapeutic modalities, either to prevent development of these early lesions or to treat progressive recurrence.

Effect of psychosocial treatment on survival of patients with metastatic breast cancer

The effect of psychosocial intervention on time of survival of 86 patients with metastatic breast cancer was studied prospectively. The 1 year intervention consisted of weekly supportive group therapy with self-hypnosis for pain. Both the treatment (n = 50) and control groups (n = 36) had routine oncological care. At 10 year follow-up, only 3 of the patients were alive, and death records were obtained for the other 83. Survival from time of randomisation and onset of intervention was a mean 36.6 (SD 37.6) months in the intervention group compared with 18.9 (10.8) months in the control group, a significant difference. Survival plots indicated that divergence in survival began at 20 months after entry, or 8 months after intervention ended.

Resection of colorectal liver metastases

From 1960 to 1992 a total of 1718 patients with liver metastases from colorectal carcinoma were recorded. Of these patients, 469 (27.3%) underwent hepatic resection, which was performed with curative intent in 434 patients (25.3%). Operative mortality in this group was 4.4%, being 1.8% (2 of 114) during the last 3 years. Significant morbidity was observed in 16% of patients with a decrease to 5% (6 of 112) for the last 3 years. A 99.8% follow-up until November 1, 1993 was achieved. Excluding operative mortality, there are 350 patients with "potentially curative" resection and 65 corresponding patients with minimal macroscopic (n = 19) or microscopic (n = 46) residual disease. The latter group demonstrated a poor prognosis, with median and maximum survival times of 14.4 and 56.0 months, respectively. Among the 350 patients having potentially curative resection, the actuarial 5-, 10-, and 20-year survivals were 39.3%, 23.6%, and 17.7%, respectively. Tumor-free survival was 33.6% at 5 years. In the univariate analysis, the following factors were associated with decreased crude survival: presence and extent of mesenteric lymph node involvement (p = 0.0001); grade III/IV primary tumor (p = 0.013); synchronous diagnosis of metastases (p = 0.014); satellite metastases (p = 0.00001); metastasis diameter of > 5 cm (p = 0.003); preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) elevation (p = 0.03); limited resection margins (p = 0.009); extrahepatic disease (p = 0.009); and nonanatomic procedures (p = 0.008). With respect to disease-free survival, extrahepatic disease (p = 0.09) failed to achieve statistical significance, whereas patients with primary tumors in the colon did significantly better than those with rectal cancer (p = 0.04). The presence of five or more independent metastases adversely affected resectability (p < 0.05). However, once a radical excision of all detectable disease was achieved, no significant predictive value of an increasing number of metastases (1-3 versus > or = 4) on either overall (p = 0.40) or disease-free (p = 0.64) survival was found. Using Cox's multivariate regression analysis, the presence of satellite metastases, primary tumor grade, the time of metastasis diagnosis, diameter of the largest metastasis, anatomic versus nonanatomic approach, year of resection, and mesenteric lymph node involvement each independently affected both crude and tumor-free survival.

Sudden cardiac arrest associated with early repolarization

BACKGROUND

Early repolarization is a common electrocardiographic finding that is generally considered to be benign. Its potential to cause cardiac arrhythmias has been hypothesized from experimental studies, but it is not known whether there is a clinical association with sudden cardiac arrest.

METHODS

We reviewed data from 206 case subjects at 22 centers who were resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to idiopathic ventricular fibrillation and assessed the prevalence of electrocardiographic early repolarization. The latter was defined as an elevation of the QRS-ST junction of at least 0.1 mV from baseline in the inferior or lateral lead, manifested as QRS slurring or notching. The control group comprised 412 subjects without heart disease who were matched for age, sex, race, and level of physical activity. Follow-up data that included the results of monitoring with an implantable defibrillator were obtained for all case subjects.

RESULTS

Early repolarization was more frequent in case subjects with idiopathic ventricular fibrillation than in control subjects (31% vs. 5%, P<0.001). Among case subjects, those with early repolarization were more likely to be male and to have a history of syncope or sudden cardiac arrest during sleep than those without early repolarization. In eight subjects, the origin of ectopy that initiated ventricular arrhythmias was mapped to sites concordant with the localization of repolarization abnormalities. During a mean (+/-SD) follow-up of 61+/-50 months, defibrillator monitoring showed a higher incidence of recurrent ventricular fibrillation in case subjects with a repolarization abnormality than in those without such an abnormality (hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 3.5; P=0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with a history of idiopathic ventricular fibrillation, there is an increased prevalence of early repolarization.

Outcomes among 562 recipients of placental-blood transplants from unrelated donors

BACKGROUND

A program for banking, characterizing, and distributing placental blood, also called umbilical-cord blood, for transplantation provided grafts for 562 patients between August 24, 1992, and January 30, 1998. We evaluated this experience.

METHODS

Placental blood was stored under liquid nitrogen and selected for specific patients on the basis of HLA type and leukocyte content. Patients were prepared for the transplantation of allogeneic hematopoietic cells in the placental blood and received prophylaxis against graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) according to routine procedures at each center.

RESULTS

Outcomes at 100 days after transplantation were known for all 562 patients, and outcomes at 1 year for 94 percent of eligible recipients. The cumulative rates of engraftment among the recipients, according to actuarial analysis, were 81 percent by day 42 for neutrophils (median time to engraftment, 28 days) and 85 percent by day 180 for platelets (median, day 90). The speed of myeloid engraftment was associated primarily with the leukocyte content of the graft, whereas transplantation-related events were associated with the patient's underlying disease and age, the number of leukocytes in the graft, the degree of HLA disparity, and the transplantation center. After engraftment, age, HLA disparity, and center were the primary predictors of outcome. Severe acute GVHD (grade III or IV) occurred in 23 percent of patients, and chronic GVHD occurred in 25 percent. The rate of relapse among recipients with leukemia was 9 percent within the first 100 days, 17 percent within 6 months, and 26 percent by 1 year. These rates were associated with the severity of GVHD, type of leukemia, and stage of the disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Placental blood is a useful source of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cells for bone marrow reconstitution.

Donor leukocyte infusions in 140 patients with relapsed malignancy after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation

PURPOSE

Recipients of allogeneic bone marrow transplants (BMTs) who have relapsed may attain complete remissions when treated with transfusions of leukocytes obtained from the original bone marrow donor. We performed a retrospective study to characterize better this new treatment modality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We surveyed 25 North American BMT programs regarding their use of donor leukocyte infusions (DLI). Detailed forms were used to gather data regarding the original BMT, relapse, DLI, response to DLI, complications of DLI, and long-term follow-up evaluation. Reports of 140 patients were thus available for analysis.

RESULTS

Complete responses were observed in 60% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.9% to 68.1%) of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) patients who received DLI and did not receive pre-DLI chemotherapy; response rates were higher in patients with cytogenetic and chronic-phase relapse (75.7%; 95% CI, 68.2% to 83.2%) than in patients with accelerated-phase (33.3%; 95% CI, 19.7% to 46.9%) or blastic-phase (16.7%; 95% CI, 1.9% to 31.9%) relapse. The actuarial probability of remaining in complete remission at 2 years was 89.6%. Complete remission rates in acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) (n = 39) and acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) (n = 11) patients who had not received pre-DLI chemotherapy were 15.4% (95% CI, 9.6% to 21.2%) and 18.2% (95% CI, 6.6% to 29.8%), respectively. Complete remissions were also observed in two of four assessable myeloma patients and two of five assessable myelodysplasia patients. Complications of DLI included acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) (60%; 95% CI, 51.4% to 68.6%), chronic GVHD (60.7%; 95% CI, 50.3% to 71.1%), and pancytopenia (18.6%; 95% CI, 12.2% to 25.0%). Pre-DLI characteristics predictive of complete response in CML patients were post-BMT chronic GVHD, pre-DLI disease status of chronic phase, and time interval between BMT to DLI less than 2 years. Acute and chronic GVHD post-DLI were highly correlated with disease response (P < .00001).

CONCLUSION

DLI results in complete remissions in a high percentage of patients with relapsed chronic-phase CML. Complete remissions are observed less frequently in patients with advanced CML and acute leukemia. GVHD and pancytopenia occur commonly; GVHD is highly correlated with response.

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation

BACKGROUND

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy is often considered by carriers of BRCA mutations who have completed childbearing. However, there are limited data supporting the efficacy of this approach. We prospectively compared the effect of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy with that of surveillance for ovarian cancer on the incidence of subsequent breast cancer and BRCA-related gynecologic cancers in women with BRCA mutations.

METHODS

All women with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations identified during a six-year period were offered enrollment in a prospective follow-up study. A total of 170 women 35 years of age or older who had not undergone bilateral oophorectomy chose to undergo either surveillance for ovarian cancer or risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy. Follow-up involved an annual questionnaire, telephone contact, and reviews of medical records. The time to cancer in the two groups was compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 24.2 months, breast cancer was diagnosed in 3 of the 98 women who chose risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy and peritoneal cancer was diagnosed in 1 woman in this group. Among the 72 women who chose surveillance, breast cancer was diagnosed in 8, ovarian cancer in 4, and peritoneal cancer in 1. The time to breast cancer or BRCA-related gynecologic cancer was longer in the salpingo-oophorectomy group, with a hazard ratio for subsequent breast cancer or BRCA-related gynecologic cancer of 0.25 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.08 to 0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Salpingo-oophorectomy in carriers of BRCA mutations can decrease the risk of breast cancer and BRCA-related gynecologic cancer.

Frequency of major molecular responses to imatinib or interferon alfa plus cytarabine in newly diagnosed chronic myeloid leukemia

BACKGROUND

In a randomized trial, 1106 patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in chronic phase were assigned to imatinib or interferon alfa plus cytarabine as initial therapy. We measured levels of BCR-ABL transcripts in the blood of all patients in this trial who had a complete cytogenetic remission.

METHODS

Levels of BCR-ABL transcripts were measured by a quantitative real-time polymerase-chain-reaction assay. Results were expressed relative to the median level of BCR-ABL transcripts in the blood of 30 patients with untreated CML in chronic phase.

RESULTS

In patients who had a complete cytogenetic remission, levels of BCR-ABL transcripts after 12 months of treatment had fallen by at least 3 log in 57 percent of those in the imatinib group and 24 percent of those in the group given interferon plus cytarabine (P=0.003). On the basis of the rates of complete cytogenetic remission of 68 percent in the imatinib group and 7 percent in the group given interferon plus cytarabine at 12 months, an estimated 39 percent of all patients treated with imatinib but only 2 percent of all those given interferon plus cytarabine had a reduction in BCR-ABL transcript levels of at least 3 log (P<0.001). For patients who had a complete cytogenetic remission and a reduction in transcript levels of at least 3 log at 12 months, the probability of remaining progression-free was 100 percent at 24 months, as compared with 95 percent for such patients with a reduction of less than 3 log and 85 percent for patients who were not in complete cytogenetic remission at 12 months (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of patients with CML who had a reduction in BCR-ABL transcript levels of at least 3 log by 12 months of therapy was far greater with imatinib treatment than with treatment with interferon plus cytarabine. Patients in the imatinib group with this degree of molecular response had a negligible risk of disease progression during the subsequent 12 months.

Clinical versus actuarial judgment

Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

Amiodarone in patients with congestive heart failure and asymptomatic ventricular arrhythmia. Survival Trial of Antiarrhythmic Therapy in Congestive Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic ventricular arrhythmias in patients with congestive heart failure are associated with increased rates of overall mortality and sudden death. Amiodarone is now used widely to prevent ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation. We conducted a trial to determine whether amiodarone can reduce overall mortality in patients with congestive heart failure and asymptomatic ventricular arrhythmias.

METHODS

We used a double-blind, placebo-controlled protocol in which 674 patients with symptoms of congestive heart failure, cardiac enlargement, 10 or more premature ventricular contractions per hour, and a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40 percent or less were randomly assigned to receive amiodarone (336 patients) or placebo (338 patients). The primary end point was overall mortality, and the median follow-up was 45 months (range, 0 to 54).

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in overall mortality between the two treatment groups (P = 0.6). The two-year actuarial survival rate was 69.4 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 64.2 to 74.6) for the patients in the amiodarone group and 70.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 65.7 to 75.9) for those in the placebo group. At two years, the rate of sudden death was 15 percent in the amiodarone group and 19 percent in the placebo group (P = 0.43). There was a trend toward a reduction in overall mortality among the patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy who received amiodarone (P = 0.07). Amiodarone was significantly more effective in suppressing ventricular arrhythmias and increased the left ventricular ejection fraction by 42 percent at two years.

CONCLUSIONS

Although amiodarone was effective in suppressing ventricular arrhythmias and improving ventricular function, it did not reduce the incidence of sudden death or prolong survival among patients with heart failure, except for a trend toward reduced mortality among those with nonischemic cardiomyopathy.

Mortality and morbidity results from the European Working Party on High Blood Pressure in the Elderly trial

A double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial of antihypertensive treatment was conducted in patients over the age of 60. Entry criteria included both a sitting diastolic blood pressure on placebo treatment in the range 90-119 mm Hg and a systolic pressure in the range 160-239 mm Hg. 840 patients were randomised either to active treatment (hydrochlorothiazide + triamterene) or to matching placebo. If the blood pressure remained raised, methyldopa was added to the active regimen and matching placebo in the placebo group. An overall intention-to-treat analysis, combining the double-blind part of the trial and all subsequent follow-up, revealed a non-significant change in total mortality rate (-9%, p = 0.41) but a significant reduction in cardiovascular mortality rate (-27%, p = 0.037). The latter was due to a reduction in cardiac mortality (-38%, p = 0.036) and a non-significant decrease in cerebrovascular mortality (-32%, p = 0.16). In the double-blind part of the trial, total mortality rate was not significantly reduced (-26%, p = 0.077). Cardiovascular mortality was reduced in the actively treated group (-38%, p = 0.023), owing to a reduction in cardiac deaths (-47%, p = 0.048) and a non-significant decrease in cerebrovascular mortality (-43%, p = 0.15). Deaths from myocardial infarction were reduced (-60%, p = 0.043). Study-terminating morbid cardiovascular events were significantly reduced by active treatment (-60%, p = 0.0064). Non-terminating cerebrovascular events were reduced (-52%, p = 0.026), but the non-terminating cardiac events were not (+3%, p = 0.98). In the patients randomised to active treatment there were 29 fewer cardiovascular events and 14 fewer cardiovascular deaths per 1000 patient years during the double-blind part of the trial.

Survival after pancreatoduodenectomy. 118 consecutive resections without an operative mortality

Twenty-one years ago, Howard published a paper entitled "Forty-one Consecutive Whipple Resections Without an Operative Mortality." That paper stimulated the present analysis of the last 118 consecutive pancreatoduodenectomies (107 Whipple and 11 total resections) performed at the Surgical University Clinic Mannheim from November 1985 to the present day with no deaths. Ninety-one resections were performed for neoplasms and 27 were for complicated chronic pancreatitis. The preoperative evaluation, operative technique, and postoperative care of these cases is discussed in detail and compared to the experience of Howard. While there was general agreement on operative technique, there were differences concerning preoperative evaluation (modern imaging methods) and postoperative care (simplification). In this series 21 postoperative complications required seven relaparotomies. Long-term survival after resection for carcinoma was analyzed for 133 consecutive patients who were shown to have true ductal adenocarcinoma. In 76 patients, who had radical (R0-) resections, the actuarial 5-year-survival rate was 36%. In 44 patients, whose R0-resections for pancreatic cancer occurred more than 5 years ago, the actual survival rate was 25%.

Liver transplantation in European patients with the hepatitis B surface antigen

BACKGROUND

The role of liver transplantation in patients positive for the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is controversial because of the high rate of recurrent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. It has not been determined whether this risk is greater for certain patients and whether the administration of anti-hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs) immune globulin is beneficial.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study at 17 European centers of 372 consecutive HBsAg-positive patients who underwent liver transplantation between 1977 and 1990. Recurrence of HBV infection was defined as the reappearance of HBsAg in serum.

RESULTS

For all 334 patients with follow-up data, the mean (+/- SE) three-year actuarial risk of recurrence of HBV was 50 +/- 3 percent. The risk was 67 +/- 4 percent among 163 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, 32 +/- 5 percent among 110 patients with cirrhosis related to hepatitis delta virus, 40 +/- 16 percent among 14 patients with fulminant hepatitis delta infection, and 17 +/- 7 percent among 39 patients with fulminant HBV infection (P < 0.001). Among the patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, the risk of HBV recurrence was greatest (83 +/- 6 percent) in those who were seropositive for HBV DNA at the transplantation and lowest (58 +/- 7 percent) in those with neither HBV DNA nor hepatitis B e antigen detectable in serum. With respect to the use of passive prophylaxis with anti-HBs immune globulin, the risk of HBV recurrence was 75 +/- 6 percent among the 67 patients given no immunoprophylaxis, 74 +/- 5 percent among the 83 treated for two months, and 36 +/- 4 percent among the 209 treated for six months or longer (P < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis the predictors of a lower risk of HBV recurrence were the long-term administration of the immune globulin, hepatitis delta virus superinfection, and acute liver disease. For the entire study cohort, survival was 75 percent at one year and 63 percent at three years, but for those in whom HBV infection recurred, survival was 68 percent at one year and 44 percent at three years.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective study of HBsAg-positive patients, liver transplantation had better results in those who had fulminant hepatitis or delta virus superinfection. An absence of viral replication at the time of transplantation and long-term immunoprophylaxis were associated with a reduced risk of recurrent HBV infection and reduced mortality.

Impact of graft size mismatching on graft prognosis in liver transplantation from living donors

BACKGROUND

Although living donor liver transplantation for small pediatric patients is increasingly accepted, its expansion to older/larger patients is still in question because of the lack of sufficient information on the impact of graft size mismatching.

METHODS

A total of 276 cases of living donor liver transplantation, excluding ABO-incompatible, auxiliary, or secondary transplants, were reviewed from graft size matching. Forty-three cases were highly urgent cases receiving intensive care preoperatively. Cases were categorized into five groups by graft-to-recipient weight ratio (GRWR): extra-small-for-size (XS; GRWR<0.8%, 17 elective and 4 urgent cases), small (S; 0.8< or =GRWR< 1.0%, 21 and 7), medium (M; 1.0< or =GRWR<3.0%, 119 and 19), large (L; 3.0< or =GRWR<5.0%, 67 and 10), and extra-large (XL; GRWR> or =5.0%, 9 and 3).

RESULTS

Smaller-for-size grafts were associated not only with larger and older recipients, but also with rather older donors. Posttransplant bilirubin clearance was delayed and aspartate aminotransferase corrected by relative graft size was higher in XS and S. Posttransplant hemorrhage and intestinal perforation were more frequent in XS and S, and vascular complications and acute rejection were more frequent in larger-for-size grafts. Consequently, graft survival in XS (cumulative 58% and actuarial 42% at 1 year) and S (76% and 74%) was significantly lower compared with that in M (93% and 92%) in elective cases. Graft survival in L (83% and 82%) and XL (75% and 71%) did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of small-for-size grafts (less than 1% of recipient body weight) leads to lower graft survival, probably through enhanced parenchymal cell injury and reduced metabolic and synthetic capacity. Although large-for-size grafts are associated with some anatomical and immunological disadvantages, the negative impact is less pronounced.

Electrical alternans and vulnerability to ventricular arrhythmias

BACKGROUND

Although electrical alternans (alternating amplitude from beat to beat on the electrocardiogram) has been associated with ventricular arrhythmias in many clinical settings, its physiologic importance and prognostic implications remain unknown.

METHODS

To test the hypothesis that electrical alternans is a marker of vulnerability to ventricular arrhythmias, we developed a technique to detect subtle alternation in the morphologic features of the electrocardiogram (which would not be detectable by visual inspection of the electrocardiogram). In a group of 83 patients referred for diagnostic electrophysiologic testing, we prospectively examined whether levels of alternans predicted vulnerability to arrhythmias as defined by the outcome of electrophysiologic testing and arrhythmia-free survival.

RESULTS

Sustained ventricular arrhythmias were induced during electrophysiologic testing in 32 of the patients (39 percent). In this group, low-level electrical alternans (a beat-to-beat change in amplitude of < 15 microV) was detected over a broad range of physiologic heart rates (from 95 to 150 beats per minute) and primarily involved the ST segment and the T wave (i.e., the phase of repolarization). Alternans during repolarization was a significant and independent predictor of inducible arrhythmias on electrophysiologic testing (sensitivity, 81 percent; specificity, 84 percent; relative risk, 5.2). Of 66 patients followed for up to 20 months, 13 had arrhythmic events. Alternans affecting the T wave and inducibility of ventricular arrhythmias were significant and essentially equivalent predictors of survival without arrhythmia (P < 0.001). Actuarial survival without arrhythmia at 20 months was significantly lower among the patients with T-wave alternans (19 percent) than among the patients without T-wave alternans (94 percent).

CONCLUSIONS

Electrical alternans affecting the ST segment and T wave is common among patients at increased risk for ventricular arrhythmias. Subtle electrical alternans on the electrocardiogram may serve as a noninvasive marker of vulnerability to ventricular arrhythmias.

Pancreaticoduodenectomy for cancer of the head of the pancreas. 201 patients

OBJECTIVE

This single-institution study examined the outcome after pancreaticoduodenectomy in patients with adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

In recent years, pancreaticoduodenectomy for adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas has been associated with decreased morbidity and mortality and, in some centers, 5-year survival rates in excess of 20%.

METHODS

Two hundred one patients with pathologically verified adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy at The Johns Hopkins Hospital between 1970 and 1994 were analyzed (the last 100 resections were performed between March 1991 and April 1994). This is the largest single-institution experience reported to date.

RESULTS

The overall postoperative in-hospital mortality rate was 5%, but has been 0.7% for the last 149 patients. The actuarial 5-year survival for all 201 patients was 21%, with a median survival of 15.5 months. There were 11 5-year survivors. Patients resected with negative margins (curative resections: n = 143) had an actuarial 5-year survival rate of 26%, with a median survival of 18 months, whereas those with positive margins (palliative resections; n = 58) fared significantly worse, with an actuarial 5-year survival rate of 8% and a median survival of 10 months (p < 0.0001). Survival has improved significantly from decade to decade (p < 0.002), with the 3-year actuarial survival of 14% in the 1970s, 21% in the 1980s, and 36% in the 1990s. Factors significantly favoring long-term survival by univariate analyses included tumor diameter < 3 cm, negative nodal status, diploid tumor DNA content, tumor S phase fraction < 18%, pylorus-preserving resection, < 800 mL intraoperative blood loss, < 2 units of blood transfused, negative resection margins, and use of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Multivariate analyses indicated the strongest predictors of long-term survival were diploid tumor DNA content, tumor diameter < 3 cm, negative nodal status, negative resection margins, and decade of resection.

CONCLUSIONS

The survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated by pancreaticoduodenectomy is improving. Aspects of tumor biology, such as DNA content, tumor diameter, nodal status and margin status, are the strongest predictors of outcome.

Computer program to assist in making decisions about adjuvant therapy for women with early breast cancer

PURPOSE

The goal of the computer program Adjuvant! is to allow health professionals and their patients with early breast cancer to make more informed decisions about adjuvant therapy.

METHODS

Actuarial analysis was used to project outcomes of patients with and without adjuvant therapy based on estimates of prognosis largely derived from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results data and estimates of the efficacy of adjuvant therapy based on the 1998 overviews of randomized trials of adjuvant therapy. These estimates can be refined using the Prognostic Factor Impact Calculator, which uses a Bayesian method to make adjustments based on relative risks conferred and prevalence of positive test results.

RESULTS

From the entries of patient information (age, menopausal status, comorbidity estimate) and tumor staging and characteristics (tumor size, number of positive axillary nodes, estrogen receptor status), baseline prognostic estimates are made. Estimates for the efficacy of endocrine therapy (5 years of tamoxifen) and of polychemotherapy (cyclophosphamide/methotrexate/fluorouracil-like regimens, or anthracycline-based therapy, or therapy based on both an anthracycline and a taxane) can then be used to project outcomes presented in both numerical and graphical formats. Outcomes for overall survival and disease-free survival and the improvement seen in clinical trials, are reasonably modeled by Adjuvant!, although an ideal validation for all patient subsets with all treatment options is not possible. Additional speculative estimates of years of remaining life expectancy and long-term survival curves can also be produced. Help files supply general information about breast cancer. The program's Internet links supply national treatment guidelines, cooperative group trial options, and other related information.

CONCLUSION

The computer program Adjuvant! can play practical and educational roles in clinical settings.

Breast cancer and other second neoplasms after childhood Hodgkin's disease

BACKGROUND

Patients who survive Hodgkin's disease are at increased risk for second neoplasms. As survival times increase, solid tumors are emerging as a serious long-term complication.

METHODS

The Late Effects Study Group followed a cohort of 1380 children with Hodgkin's disease to determine the incidence of second neoplasms and the risk factors associated with them.

RESULTS

In this cohort, there were 88 second neoplasms as compared with 4.4 expected in the general population (standardized incidence ratio, 18.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 14.3 to 22.3). The estimated actuarial incidence of any second neoplasm 15 years after the diagnosis of Hodgkin's disease was 7.0 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 5.2 to 8.8 percent); the incidence of solid tumors was 3.9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 2.3 to 5.5 percent). Breast cancer was the most common solid tumor (standardized incidence ratio 75.3; 95 percent confidence interval, 44.9 to 118.4), with an estimated actuarial incidence in women that approached 35 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17.4 to 52.6 percent) by 40 years of age. Older age (10 to 16 vs. <10 years) at the time of radiation treatment (relative risk, 1.9) and a higher dose (2000 to 4000 vs. <2000 cGy) of radiation (relative risk, 5.9) were associated with significantly increased risk of breast cancer. The estimated actuarial incidence of leukemia reached a plateau of 2.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 0.8 to 4.8 percent) 14 years after diagnosis. Treatment with alkylating agents, older age at the diagnosis of Hodgkin's disease, recurrence of Hodgkin's disease, and a late stage of disease at diagnosis were risk factors for leukemia.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of solid tumors, especially breast cancer, is high among women who were treated with radiation for childhood Hodgkin's disease. Systematic screening for breast cancer could be important in the health care of such women.