Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoeal diseases cause illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. We designed the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to identify the aetiology and population-based burden of paediatric diarrhoeal disease in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia.

METHODS

The GEMS is a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at four sites in Africa and three in Asia. We recruited children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea seeking care at health centres along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. From patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and controls, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and a faecal sample to identify enteropathogens at enrolment; one follow-up home visit was made about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth.

FINDINGS

We enrolled 9439 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and 13,129 control children without diarrhoea. By analysing adjusted population attributable fractions, most attributable cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea were due to four pathogens: rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-stable toxin (ST-ETEC; with or without co-expression of heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella. Other pathogens were important in selected sites (eg, Aeromonas, Vibrio cholerae O1, Campylobacter jejuni). Odds of dying during follow-up were 8·5-fold higher in patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than in controls (odd ratio 8·5, 95% CI 5·8-12·5, p<0·0001); most deaths (167 [87·9%]) occurred during the first 2 years of life. Pathogens associated with increased risk of case death were ST-ETEC (hazard ratio [HR] 1·9; 0·99-3·5) and typical enteropathogenic E coli (HR 2·6; 1·6-4·1) in infants aged 0-11 months, and Cryptosporidium (HR 2·3; 1·3-4·3) in toddlers aged 12-23 months.

INTERPRETATION

Interventions targeting five pathogens (rotavirus, Shigella, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli) can substantially reduce the burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. New methods and accelerated implementation of existing interventions (rotavirus vaccine and zinc) are needed to prevent disease and improve outcomes.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The prevalence of nosocomial infection in intensive care units in Europe. Results of the European Prevalence of Infection in Intensive Care (EPIC) Study. EPIC International Advisory Committee

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections and the risk factors for these infections, identify the predominant infecting organisms, and evaluate the relationship between ICU-acquired infection and mortality.

DESIGN

A 1-day point-prevalence study.

SETTING

Intensive care units in 17 countries in Western Europe, excluding coronary care units and pediatric and special care infant units.

PATIENTS

All patients (> 10 years of age) occupying an ICU bed over a 24-hour period. A total of 1417 ICUs provided 10 038 patient case reports.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates of ICU-acquired infection, prescription of antimicrobials, resistance patterns of microbiological isolates, and potential risk factors for ICU-acquired infection and death.

RESULTS

A total of 4501 patients (44.8%) were infected, and 2064 (20.6%) had ICU-acquired infection. Pneumonia (46.9%), lower respiratory tract infection (17.8%), urinary tract infection (17.6%), and bloodstream infection (12%) were the most frequent types of ICU infection reported. Most frequently reported micro-organisms were Enterobacteriaceae (34.4%), Staphylococcus aureus (30.1%;[60% resistant to methicillin], Pseudomonas aeruginosa (28.7%), coagulase-negative staphylococci (19.1%), and fungi (17.1%). Seven risk factors for ICU-acquired infection were identified: increasing length of ICU stay (> 48 hours), mechanical ventilation, diagnosis of trauma, central venous, pulmonary artery, and urinary catheterization, and stress ulcer prophylaxis. ICU-acquired pneumonia (odds ratio [OR], 1.91; 95% confidence interval[Cl], 1.6 to 2.29), clinical sepsis (OR, 3.50; 95% Cl, 1.71 to 7.18), and bloodstream infection (OR, 1.73; 95% Cl, 1.25 to 2.41) increased the risk of ICU death.

CONCLUSIONS

ICU-acquired infection is common and often associated with microbiological isolates of resistant organisms. The potential effects on outcome emphasize the importance of specific measures for infection control in critically ill patients.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.

METHODS

We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990-2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages.

METHODS

We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty.

FINDINGS

In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073-2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894-504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138-155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526-292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2-85·0), 72·1% (34·0-91·4), and 56·4% (49·3-62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521-2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A controlled clinical trial of high-dose methylprednisolone in the treatment of severe sepsis and septic shock

The use of high-dose corticosteroids in the treatment of severe sepsis and septic shock remains controversial. Our study was designed as a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of high-dose methylprednisolone sodium succinate for severe sepsis and septic shock. Diagnosis was based on the clinical suspicion of infection plus the presence of fever or hypothermia (rectal temperature greater than 38.3 degrees C [101 degrees F] or less than 35.6 degrees C [96 degrees F]), tachypnea (greater than 20 breaths per minute), tachycardia (greater than 90 beats per minute), and the presence of one of the following indications of organ dysfunction: a change in mental status, hypoxemia, elevated lactate levels, or oliguria. Three hundred eighty-two patients were enrolled. Treatment--either methylprednisolone sodium succinate (30 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo--was given in four infusions, starting within two hours of diagnosis. No significant differences were found in the prevention of shock, the reversal of shock, or overall mortality. In the subgroup of patients with elevated serum creatinine levels (greater than 2 mg per deciliter) at enrollment, mortality at 14 days was significantly increased among those receiving methylprednisolone (46 of 78 [59 percent] vs. 17 of 58 [29 percent] among those receiving placebo; P less than 0.01). Among patients treated with methylprednisolone, significantly more deaths were related to secondary infection. We conclude that the use of high-dose corticosteroids provides no benefit in the treatment of severe sepsis and septic shock.

Use of procalcitonin to reduce patients' exposure to antibiotics in intensive care units (PRORATA trial): a multicentre randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Reduced duration of antibiotic treatment might contain the emergence of multidrug-resistant bacteria in intensive care units. We aimed to establish the effectiveness of an algorithm based on the biomarker procalcitonin to reduce antibiotic exposure in this setting.

METHODS

In this multicentre, prospective, parallel-group, open-label trial, we used an independent, computer-generated randomisation sequence to randomly assign patients in a 1:1 ratio to procalcitonin (n=311 patients) or control (n=319) groups; investigators were masked to assignment before, but not after, randomisation. For the procalcitonin group, antibiotics were started or stopped based on predefined cut-off ranges of procalcitonin concentrations; the control group received antibiotics according to present guidelines. Drug selection and the final decision to start or stop antibiotics were at the discretion of the physician. Patients were expected to stay in the intensive care unit for more than 3 days, had suspected bacterial infections, and were aged 18 years or older. Primary endpoints were mortality at days 28 and 60 (non-inferiority analysis), and number of days without antibiotics by day 28 (superiority analysis). Analyses were by intention to treat. The margin of non-inferiority was 10%. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00472667.

FINDINGS

Nine patients were excluded from the study; 307 patients in the procalcitonin group and 314 in the control group were included in analyses. Mortality of patients in the procalcitonin group seemed to be non-inferior to those in the control group at day 28 (21.2% [65/307] vs 20.4% [64/314]; absolute difference 0.8%, 90% CI -4.6 to 6.2) and day 60 (30.0% [92/307] vs 26.1% [82/314]; 3.8%, -2.1 to 9.7). Patients in the procalcitonin group had significantly more days without antibiotics than did those in the control group (14.3 days [SD 9.1] vs 11.6 days [SD 8.2]; absolute difference 2.7 days, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.1, p<0.0001).

INTERPRETATION

A procalcitonin-guided strategy to treat suspected bacterial infections in non-surgical patients in intensive care units could reduce antibiotic exposure and selective pressure with no apparent adverse outcomes.

FUNDING

Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, France, and Brahms, Germany.

The relationship between antimicrobial resistance and patient outcomes: mortality, length of hospital stay, and health care costs

There is an association between the development of antimicrobial resistance in Staphylococcus aureus, enterococci, and gram-negative bacilli and increases in mortality, morbidity, length of hospitalization, and cost of health care. For many patients, inadequate or delayed therapy and severe underlying disease are primarily responsible for the adverse outcomes of infections caused by antimicrobial-resistant organisms. Patients with infections due to antimicrobial-resistant organisms have higher costs (approximately 6,000-30,000 dollars) than do patients with infections due to antimicrobial-susceptible organisms; the difference in cost is even greater when patients infected with antimicrobial-resistant organisms are compared with patients without infection. Strategies to prevent nosocomial emergence and spread of antimicrobial-resistant organisms are essential.

Serious infections and mortality in association with therapies for Crohn's disease: TREAT registry

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Long-term safety data for infliximab and other therapies in Crohn's disease (CD) are needed.

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated patients for prespecified safety-related outcomes.

RESULTS

As of August 2004, 6290 patients were enrolled; 3179 received infliximab (5519 patient-years), 87% of whom received at least 2 infusions, and 3111 received other therapies (6123 patient-years). The mean length of follow-up evaluation was 1.9 years. More infliximab-treated patients had moderate-to-severe (30.8% vs 10.3%) or severe-fulminant (2.5% vs .6%) CD, and had surgical (17.5% vs 13.8%) or medical (14.4% vs 9.1%) hospitalizations in the previous year. More patients were taking prednisone (27.4% vs 16.1%), immunomodulators (49.4% vs 32.2%), or narcotic analgesics (9.8% vs 5.4%) when compared with those receiving other therapies (P<.001, all comparisons). The mortality rates were similar for infliximab- and non-infliximab-treated patients (.53 per 100 patient-years vs .43; relative risk, 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], .73-2.10). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, only prednisone was associated with an increased mortality risk (odds ratio [OR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.15-3.83; P=.016). Although the unadjusted analysis showed an increased risk for infection with infliximab use, multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that infliximab was not an independent predictor of serious infections (OR, .99; 95% CI, .64-1.54). Factors independently associated with serious infections included prednisone use (OR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.46-3.34; P<.001), narcotic analgesic use (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.56-3.63; P<.001), and moderate-to-severe disease activity (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.10-4.05; P=.024).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates were similar between infliximab- and non-infliximab-treated patients. The increased risk for serious infection observed with infliximab likely was owing to disease severity and prednisone use.

Incidence of co-infections and superinfections in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the burden, epidemiology and outcomes of co-infections and superinfections occurring in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed an observational cohort study of all consecutive patients admitted for ≥48 hours to the Hospital Clinic of Barcelona for COVID-19 (28 February to 22 April 2020) who were discharged or dead. We describe demographic, epidemiologic, laboratory and microbiologic results, as well as outcome data retrieved from electronic health records.

RESULTS

Of a total of 989 consecutive patients with COVID-19, 72 (7.2%) had 88 other microbiologically confirmed infections: 74 were bacterial, seven fungal and seven viral. Community-acquired co-infection at COVID-19 diagnosis was uncommon (31/989, 3.1%) and mainly caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. A total of 51 hospital-acquired bacterial superinfections, mostly caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli, were diagnosed in 43 patients (4.7%), with a mean (SD) time from hospital admission to superinfection diagnosis of 10.6 (6.6) days. Overall mortality was 9.8% (97/989). Patients with community-acquired co-infections and hospital-acquired superinfections had worse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Co-infection at COVID-19 diagnosis is uncommon. Few patients developed superinfections during hospitalization. These findings are different compared to those of other viral pandemics. As it relates to hospitalized patients with COVID-19, such findings could prove essential in defining the role of empiric antimicrobial therapy or stewardship strategies.

Bacterial contamination of pancreatic necrosis. A prospective clinical study

In a prospective clinical study including 114 patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis, but excluding patients with a pancreatic abscess, necrotic material obtained at surgery was tested bacteriologically. Intestinal microorganisms were cultured in 39.4% of the cases. The contamination rate was 23.8% in patients operated on during the first 7 days of the attack; it rose to 71.4% in the third week and decreased to 32.5% after the fourth week. Intra- and extrapancreatic necrosis was more widespread and pancreatitis-associated ascites was more frequent in patients with proven contamination. The number of objective signs was 4.5 (median) and postoperative mortality was 37.8% in bacteriologically positive subjects, whereas the number was 3.5 (median) and mortality was 8.7% in bacteriologically negative patients. Morphologic and clinical alterations were more severe, and the mortality rate was significantly elevated, in patients with a short history of disease and bacterial contamination of necrotic tissue. All 5 patients with pancreatic sepsis who were operated on in the first 7 days of the disease, as compared with 2 of 16 patients with sterile necrosis, died. Thus, it is demonstrated that bacterial contamination of pancreatic necrosis occurs early and frequently, causing a significant increase in morbidity and mortality, particularly when it develops in the initial stages of the attack.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory tract infections in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages.

METHODS

We estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs.

FINDINGS

In 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000-763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95ÙI 56·0-65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI -0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940-2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction.

INTERPRETATION

LRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

U.K. Controlled trial of intrapleural streptokinase for pleural infection

BACKGROUND

Intrapleural fibrinolytic agents are used in the drainage of infected pleural-fluid collections. This use is based on small trials that did not have the statistical power to evaluate accurately important clinical outcomes, including safety. We conducted a trial to clarify the therapeutic role of intrapleural streptokinase.

METHODS

In this double-blind trial, 454 patients with pleural infection (defined by the presence of purulent pleural fluid or pleural fluid with a pH below 7.2 with signs of infection or by proven bacterial invasion of the pleural space) were randomly assigned to receive either intrapleural streptokinase (250,000 IU twice daily for three days) or placebo. Patients received antibiotics and underwent chest-tube drainage, surgery, and other treatment as part of routine care. The number of patients in the two groups who had died or needed surgical drainage at three months was compared (the primary end point); secondary end points were the rates of death and of surgery (analyzed separately), the radiographic outcome, and the length of the hospital stay.

RESULTS

The groups were well matched at baseline. Among the 427 patients who received streptokinase or placebo, there was no significant difference between the groups in the proportion of patients who died or needed surgery (with streptokinase: 64 of 206 patients [31 percent]; with placebo: 60 of 221 [27 percent]; relative risk, 1.14 [95 percent confidence interval, 0.85 to 1.54; P=0.43), a result that excluded a clinically significant benefit of streptokinase. There was no benefit to streptokinase in terms of mortality, rate of surgery, radiographic outcomes, or length of the hospital stay. Serious adverse events (chest pain, fever, or allergy) were more common with streptokinase (7 percent, vs. 3 percent with placebo; relative risk, 2.49 [95 percent confidence interval, 0.98 to 6.36]; P=0.08).

CONCLUSIONS

The intrapleural administration of streptokinase does not improve mortality, the rate of surgery, or the length of the hospital stay among patients with pleural infection.

Multiple system organ failure. The role of uncontrolled infection

Multiple system organ failure (MSOF) remains a principal cause of death after major operative procedures and/or severe trauma. We studied multiple parameters in 553 consecutive emergency surgical patients to determine the incidence of MSOF, the predisposing factors to MSOF, and the sequelae of MSOF. Thirty-eight patients had MSOF; mortality was 74% for these patients. Evaluation of multiple factors demonstrated that (1) MSOF is primarily due to infection, (2) the temporal sequence of organ failure is lung, liver, gastric mucosa, and kidney, and (3) MSOF is the most common fatal expression of uncontrolled infection.

Late-onset sepsis in very low birth weight neonates: a report from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network

OBJECTIVE

Late-onset sepsis (occurring after 3 days of age) is an important problem in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. To determine the current incidence of late-onset sepsis, risk factors for disease, and the impact of late-onset sepsis on subsequent hospital course, we evaluated a cohort of 7861 VLBW (401 to 1500 gm) neonates admitted to the 12 National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network centers during a 32-month period (1991 to 1993).

METHODS

The NICHD Neonatal Research Network maintains a prospectively collected registry of all VLBW neonates cared for at participating centers. Data from this registry were analyzed retrospectively.

RESULTS

Of 6911 infants who survived beyond 3 days, 1696 (25%) had one or more episodes of blood culture-proven sepsis. The vast majority of infection (73%) were caused by gram-positive organisms, with coagulase-negative staphylococci accounting for 55% of all infections. Rate of infection was inversely related to birth weight and gestational age. Complications of prematurity associated with an increased rate of infection included intubation, respiratory distress syndrome, prolonged ventilation, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, patent ductus arteriosus, severe intraventricular hemorrhage, and necrotizing enterocolitis. Among infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia, those with late-onset sepsis had a significantly longer duration of mechanical ventilation (45 vs 33 days; p <0.01). Late-onset sepsis prolonged hospital stay: the mean number of days in the hospital for VLBW neonates with and without late-onset sepsis was 86 and 61 days, respectively (p <0.001). Even after adjustment for other complications of prematurity, including intraventricular hemorrhage, necrotizing enterocolitis, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia, infants with late-onset sepsis had a significantly longer hospitalization (p <0.001). Moreover, neonates in whom late-onset sepsis developed were significantly more likely to die than those who were uninfected (17% vs 7%; p <0.000 1), especially if they were infected with gram-negative organisms (40%) or fungi (28%). Deaths attributed to infection increased with increasing chronologic age. Whereas only 4% of deaths in the first 3 days of life were attributed to infection, 45% of deaths after 2 weeks were related to infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Late-onset sepsis is a frequent and important problem among VLBW preterm infants. Successful strategies to decrease late-onset sepsis should decrease VLBW mortality rates, shorten hospital stay, and reduce costs.

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts.

METHODS

We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level.

FINDINGS

In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23-5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00-1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000-372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100-80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000-600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000-146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000-834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000-1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100-171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000-264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56-2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85-9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2-69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5-89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (-6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8-102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08-13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths.

INTERPRETATION

This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050.

FUNDING

UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust.

Beneficial effects of leukocyte depletion of transfused blood on postoperative complications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery: a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Leukocytes in transfused blood are associated with several posttransfusion immunomodulatory effects. Although leukocytes play an important role in reperfusion injury, the contribution of leukocytes in transfused blood products has not been investigated. To estimate the role and the timing of leukocyte filtration of red cells in cardiac surgery, we performed a randomized study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients scheduled for cardiac surgery were randomly allocated to receive either packed cells without buffy coat (PC, n = 306), fresh-filtered units (FF, n = 305), or stored-filtered units (SF, n = 303) when transfusion was indicated. We evaluated the periods of hospitalization and stay at the intensive care unit, and the occurrences of postoperative complications up to 60 days after surgery. The average hospital stay was 10.7 days, of which 3.2 days were in the intensive care unit, without significant differences between the groups. In the PC trial arm, 23.0% of the patients had infections versus 16.9% and 17.9% of the patients in the leukocyte-depleted trial arms (P=.13). Within 60 days, 45 patients had died, 24 patients in the PC trial arm (7.8%), versus 11 (3.6%) and 10 (3.3%) patients in the FF and SF trial arms, respectively (P=.015).

CONCLUSIONS

In cardiac surgery patients, especially when more than three blood transfusions are required, leukocyte depletion by filtration results in a significant reduction of the postoperative mortality that can only partially be explained by the higher incidence of postoperative infections in the PC group.

Norfloxacin prevents spontaneous bacterial peritonitis recurrence in cirrhosis: results of a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Eighty cirrhotic patients who had recovered from an episode of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were included in a multicenter, double-blind trial aimed at comparing long-term norfloxacin administration (400 mg/day; 40 patients) vs. placebo (40 patients) in the prevention of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis recurrence. At entry, both groups were similar with respect to clinical and laboratory data, ascitic fluid protein and polymorphonuclear concentrations, number of previous episodes of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and causative organisms of the index spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. Norfloxacin administration produced a selective intestinal decontamination (elimination of aerobic gram-negative bacilli from the fecal flora without significant changes in other microorganisms) throughout the study in six patients in whom the effect of norfloxacin on the fecal flora was periodically assessed. Fourteen patients from the placebo group (35%) and five from the norfloxacin group (12%) developed spontaneous bacterial peritonitis recurrence during follow-up (chi 2 = 5.97; p = 0.014) (mean follow-up period = 6.4 +/- 0.6 mo; range = 1 to 19 mo). Ten of the 14 spontaneous bacterial peritonitis recurrences in the placebo group and only one of the five spontaneous bacterial peritonitis recurrences in the norfloxacin group were caused by aerobic gram-negative bacilli (chi 2 = 8.87; p = 0.0029). The overall probability of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis recurrence at 1 yr of follow-up was 20% in the norfloxacin group and 68% in the placebo group (p = 0.0063) and the probability of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis recurrence caused by aerobic gram-negative bacilli at 1 yr of follow-up was 3% and 60%, respectively (p = 0.0013).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on health and economic outcomes

Despite an increasing prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens, the health and economic impact of colonization and infection with these organisms has not been fully elucidated. We explore how antimicrobial resistance can affect patient outcomes by enhancing virulence, causing a delay in the administration of appropriate therapy, and limiting available therapy. Next, we examine the different perspectives held by hospitals, third-party payers, patients, and society on the impact of resistance. Finally, we review methodological issues in designing and assessing studies that address the clinical outcomes for patients infected or colonized with resistant pathogens, including adjustment for important confounding variables, control group selection, and the quantification of economic outcomes.

Evidence for protection by breast-feeding against infant deaths from infectious diseases in Brazil

In a population-based case-control study of infant mortality in two urban areas of southern Brazil, the type of milk in an infant's diet was found to be an important risk factor for deaths from diarrhoeal and respiratory infections. Compared with infants who were breast-fed with no milk supplements, and after adjusting for confounding variables, those completely weaned had 14.2 and 3.6 times the risk of death from diarrhoea and respiratory infections, respectively. Part-weaning was associated with corresponding relative risks (RR) of 4.2 and 1.6. The risk of death from infections other than diarrhoea or respiratory infection was less clearly associated with breast-feeding (completely weaned, RR = 2.5; partly weaned, RR = 0.4). Cow's and formula milk seemed to be equally hazardous. For deaths due to diarrhoea the increased risk associated with not breast-feeding was greatest in the first two months of life (RR for completely weaned vs breast-fed without supplementary milk = 23.3).

Prevalence and outcomes of co-infection and superinfection with SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The recovery of other pathogens in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection has been reported, either at the time of a SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosis (co-infection) or subsequently (superinfection). However, data on the prevalence, microbiology, and outcomes of co-infection and superinfection are limited. The purpose of this study was to examine the occurrence of co-infections and superinfections and their outcomes among patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We searched literature databases for studies published from October 1, 2019, through February 8, 2021. We included studies that reported clinical features and outcomes of co-infection or superinfection of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens in hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients. We followed PRISMA guidelines, and we registered the protocol with PROSPERO as: CRD42020189763.

RESULTS

Of 6639 articles screened, 118 were included in the random effects meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of co-infection was 19% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14%-25%, I2 = 98%) and that of superinfection was 24% (95% CI: 19%-30%). Pooled prevalence of pathogen type stratified by co- or superinfection were: viral co-infections, 10% (95% CI: 6%-14%); viral superinfections, 4% (95% CI: 0%-10%); bacterial co-infections, 8% (95% CI: 5%-11%); bacterial superinfections, 20% (95% CI: 13%-28%); fungal co-infections, 4% (95% CI: 2%-7%); and fungal superinfections, 8% (95% CI: 4%-13%). Patients with a co-infection or superinfection had higher odds of dying than those who only had SARS-CoV-2 infection (odds ratio = 3.31, 95% CI: 1.82-5.99). Compared to those with co-infections, patients with superinfections had a higher prevalence of mechanical ventilation (45% [95% CI: 33%-58%] vs. 10% [95% CI: 5%-16%]), but patients with co-infections had a greater average length of hospital stay than those with superinfections (mean = 29.0 days, standard deviation [SD] = 6.7 vs. mean = 16 days, SD = 6.2, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that as many as 19% of patients with COVID-19 have co-infections and 24% have superinfections. The presence of either co-infection or superinfection was associated with poor outcomes, including increased mortality. Our findings support the need for diagnostic testing to identify and treat co-occurring respiratory infections among patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Bacterial resistance: origins, epidemiology, and impact

The basic mechanisms of antibacterial resistance are well known, but critical new aspects continue to be discovered. Recently discovered factors with major implications for the emergence, dissemination, and maintenance of resistance include multidrug efflux, hypermutability, integrons, and plasmid addiction. Some resistances are widespread and others local, with prevalence rates often worst in newly prosperous countries and in those specialist units where antibacterial use is heaviest. Multidrug-resistant epidemic strains are critical to the total accumulation of resistance (e.g., among Streptococcus pneumoniae, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae), but it remains unclear why some bacterial lineages achieve epidemic spread whereas others that are equally resistant do not. The correlation between in vitro resistance and treatment failure is imperfect, but resistance undoubtedly increases mortality, morbidity, and costs in many settings. Recent concern has led to a plethora of governmental and agency reports advocating less antibacterial use, better antibacterial use, better infection control, and the development of new antibacterials. The evidence that better prescribing can reduce resistance rates is mixed, and although changes to hospital regimens may reduce one resistance problem, other opportunistic bacteria may fill the vacant niche. Overall, the best that can reasonably be anticipated is an improved balance between the accumulation of resistance and new antibacterial development.

A prospective study of bacterial infections in patients with cirrhosis

One hundred and seventy hospitalized patients with cirrhosis were included in a prospective and sequential study, to verify the prevalence and most frequent causes of bacterial infection. The differences in clinical and laboratory data between the two groups were analyzed: group I--80 patients who developed bacterial infection and group II--90 patients without bacterial infection. The prevalence or cumulative frequency of the development of bacterial infection during one hospitalization was 47.06%. Among these, the most frequent types of infection were: spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP): 31.07%, urinary tract infection (UTI): 25.24% and pneumonia: 21.37%. Community infections were more frequent (56.25%) than nosocomial infections (32.50%) and they occurred sequentially in 11.25% of the cases. The agents responsible were gram negative bacteria in 72.34% of the cases. Clinical and biochemical parameters in bacterial infection were generally correlated with the severity of liver disease. Child-Pugh classification showed a predominance of class C in infected cirrhotic patients compared to non-infected ones. During hospitalization, the mortality rate of group I was 30% whereas in group II it was 5.55% (P = 0.0001). SBP and pneumonia were the most severe types of infection, with high mortality rates, 31.25% and 40.91%, respectively. These results indicate that bacterial infection is a severe complication in the course of cirrhosis.

Epidemiology and Effects of Bacterial Infections in Patients With Cirrhosis Worldwide

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Bacterial infections are common and life-threatening in patients with cirrhosis. Little is known about the epidemiology of bacterial infections in different regions. We performed a multicenter prospective intercontinental study to assess the prevalence and outcomes of bacterial and fungal infections in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We collected data from 1302 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and bacterial or fungal infections at 46 centers (15 in Asia, 15 in Europe, 11 in South America, and 5 in North America) from October 2015 through September 2016. We obtained demographic, clinical, microbiology, and treatment data at time of diagnosis of infection and during hospitalization. Patients were followed until death, liver transplantation, or discharge.

RESULTS

The global prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria was 34% (95% confidence interval 31%-37%). The prevalence of MDR bacteria differed significantly among geographic areas, with the greatest prevalence in Asia. Independent risk factors for infection with MDR bacteria were infection in Asia (particularly in India), use of antibiotics in the 3 months before hospitalization, prior health care exposure, and site of infection. Infections caused by MDR bacteria were associated with a lower rate of resolution of infection, a higher incidence of shock and new organ failures, and higher in-hospital mortality than those caused by non-MDR bacteria. Administration of adequate empirical antibiotic treatment was independently associated with improved in-hospital and 28-day survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In a worldwide study of hospitalized patients, we found a high prevalence of infection with MDR bacteria in patients with cirrhosis. Differences in the prevalence of MDR bacterial infections in different global regions indicate the need for different empirical antibiotic strategies in different continents and countries. While we await new antibiotics, effort should be made to decrease the spread of MDR bacteria in patients with cirrhosis.

Estimating the burden of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic literature review

Background

Accurate estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are needed to establish the magnitude of this global threat in terms of both health and cost, and to paramaterise cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions aiming to tackle the problem. This review aimed to establish the alternative methodologies used in estimating AMR burden in order to appraise the current evidence base.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, EconLit, PubMed and grey literature were searched. English language studies evaluating the impact of AMR (from any microbe) on patient, payer/provider and economic burden published between January 2013 and December 2015 were included. Independent screening of title/abstracts followed by full texts was performed using pre-specified criteria. A study quality score (from zero to one) was derived using Newcastle-Ottawa and Philips checklists. Extracted study data were used to compare study method and resulting burden estimate, according to perspective. Monetary costs were converted into 2013 USD.

Results

Out of 5187 unique retrievals, 214 studies were included. One hundred eighty-seven studies estimated patient health, 75 studies estimated payer/provider and 11 studies estimated economic burden. 64% of included studies were single centre. The majority of studies estimating patient or provider/payer burden used regression techniques. 48% of studies estimating mortality burden found a significant impact from resistance, excess healthcare system costs ranged from non-significance to $1 billion per year, whilst economic burden ranged from $21,832 per case to over $3 trillion in GDP loss. Median quality scores (interquartile range) for patient, payer/provider and economic burden studies were 0.67 (0.56-0.67), 0.56 (0.46-0.67) and 0.53 (0.44-0.60) respectively.

Conclusions

This study highlights what methodological assumptions and biases can occur dependent on chosen outcome and perspective. Currently, there is considerable variability in burden estimates, which can lead in-turn to inaccurate intervention evaluations and poor policy/investment decisions. Future research should utilise the recommendations presented in this review.

Trial registration

This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (PROSPERO CRD42016037510).

Postsplenectomy sepsis and its mortality rate: actual versus perceived risks

A collective critical review of the literature on postsplenectomy sepsis from 1952 to 1987 has been undertaken. The reports cover a cohort of 12,514 patients undergoing splenectomy but of these only 5902 reports were sufficiently detailed to allow a useful analysis. The incidence of infection after splenectomy in children under 16 years old was 4.4 per cent with a mortality rate of 2.2 per cent. The corresponding figures for adults were 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively. The present analysis of well documented patients has shown that severe infection after splenectomy for benign disease is very uncommon except in infants (infection rate 15.7 per cent) and children below the age of 5 years (infection rate 10.4 per cent). Many of these reported postsplenectomy infections may have been coincidental. It is also apparent that children contract a different type of infection after splenectomy than adults, predominantly a meningitis which is less frequently fatal. Adults, in contrast, appear to develop a septicaemic type of illness associated with a higher mortality rate. This survey has also shown that children are reported to be more susceptible to pneumococcal sepsis than to infection caused by any other organism. Although the removal of the spleen in otherwise normal people does not appear to be associated with an increased frequency of infection, the presence of a coexistent disorder, notably hepatic disease, can increase the risk substantially.