Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia

Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed.

Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been the first severe contagious disease to emerge in the 21st century. The available epidemic curves for SARS show marked differences between the affected regions with respect to the total number of cases and epidemic duration, even for those regions in which outbreaks started almost simultaneously and similar control measures were implemented at the same time. The authors developed a likelihood-based estimation procedure that infers the temporal pattern of effective reproduction numbers from an observed epidemic curve. Precise estimates for the effective reproduction numbers were obtained by applying this estimation procedure to available data for SARS outbreaks that occurred in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and Canada in 2003. The effective reproduction numbers revealed that epidemics in the various affected regions were characterized by markedly similar disease transmission potentials and similar levels of effectiveness of control measures. In controlling SARS outbreaks, timely alerts have been essential: Delaying the institution of control measures by 1 week would have nearly tripled the epidemic size and would have increased the expected epidemic duration by 4 weeks.

Smallpox as a biological weapon: medical and public health management. Working Group on Civilian Biodefense

OBJECTIVE

To develop consensus-based recommendations for measures to be taken by medical and public health professionals following the use of smallpox as a biological weapon against a civilian population.

PARTICIPANTS

The working group included 21 representatives from staff of major medical centers and research, government, military, public health, and emergency management institutions and agencies. Evidence The first author (D.A.H.) conducted a literature search in conjunction with the preparation of another publication on smallpox as well as this article. The literature identified was reviewed and opinions were sought from experts in the diagnosis and management of smallpox, including members of the working group.

CONSENSUS PROCESS

The first draft of the consensus statement was a synthesis of information obtained in the evidence-gathering process. Members of the working group provided formal written comments that were incorporated into the second draft of the statement. The working group reviewed the second draft on October 30, 1998. No significant disagreements existed and comments were incorporated into a third draft. The fourth and final statement incorporates all relevant evidence obtained by the literature search in conjunction with final consensus recommendations supported by all working group members.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific recommendations are made regarding smallpox vaccination, therapy, postexposure isolation and infection control, hospital epidemiology and infection control, home care, decontamination of the environment, and additional research needs. In the event of an actual release of smallpox and subsequent epidemic, early detection, isolation of infected individuals, surveillance of contacts, and a focused selective vaccination program will be the essential items of an effective control program.

Epidemiologic background of hand hygiene and evaluation of the most important agents for scrubs and rubs

The etiology of nosocomial infections, the frequency of contaminated hands with the different nosocomial pathogens, and the role of health care workers' hands during outbreaks suggest that a hand hygiene preparation should at least have activity against bacteria, yeasts, and coated viruses. The importance of efficacy in choosing the right hand hygiene product is reflected in the new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guideline on hand hygiene (J. M. Boyce and D. Pittet, Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. 51:1-45, 2002). The best antimicrobial efficacy can be achieved with ethanol (60 to 85%), isopropanol (60 to 80%), and n-propanol (60 to 80%). The activity is broad and immediate. Ethanol at high concentrations (e.g., 95%) is the most effective treatment against naked viruses, whereas n-propanol seems to be more effective against the resident bacterial flora. The combination of alcohols may have a synergistic effect. The antimicrobial efficacy of chlorhexidine (2 to 4%) and triclosan (1 to 2%) is both lower and slower. Additionally, both agents have a risk of bacterial resistance, which is higher for chlorhexidine than triclosan. Their activity is often supported by the mechanical removal of pathogens during hand washing. Taking the antimicrobial efficacy and the mechanical removal together, they are still less effective than the alcohols. Plain soap and water has the lowest efficacy of all. In the new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guideline, promotion of alcohol-based hand rubs containing various emollients instead of irritating soaps and detergents is one strategy to reduce skin damage, dryness, and irritation. Irritant contact dermatitis is highest with preparations containing 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, less frequent with nonantimicrobial soaps and preparations containing lower concentrations of chlorhexidine gluconate, and lowest with well-formulated alcohol-based hand rubs containing emollients and other skin conditioners. Too few published data from comparative trials are available to reliably rank triclosan. Personnel should be reminded that it is neither necessary nor recommended to routinely wash hands after each application of an alcohol-based hand rub. Long-lasting improvement of compliance with hand hygiene protocols can be successful if an effective and accessible alcohol-based hand rub with a proven dermal tolerance and an excellent user acceptability is supplied, accompanied by education of health care workers and promotion of the use of the product.

Patterns of vaccination acceptance

Immunization is one of the major public health interventions to prevent childhood morbidity and death. The Expanded Programme on Immunization has gathered momentum worldwide since 1974. The range of vaccines in the programme is being expanded in the years to come. All across the globe, a high level of vaccination coverage has been reached and now needs to be sustained. In part, the coverage has been made possible by the broad acceptance of vaccinations, although there are variations resulting in different configurations of fully, partially and non-immunized children. Using the results of studies carried out by the Social Science and Immunization Project in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Malawi, the Netherlands and the Philippines, this article describes and discusses patterns of vaccination acceptance and non-acceptance. It shows how context affects acceptance of vaccinations, and analyses the underlying reasons behind refusal and resistance. The article also develops conceptual tools for the analysis of acceptance and non-acceptance and discusses explanatory theoretical perspectives.

Undiagnosed tuberculosis in a community with high HIV prevalence: implications for tuberculosis control

BACKGROUND

Although failure of tuberculosis (TB) control in sub-Saharan Africa is attributed to the HIV epidemic, it is unclear why the directly observed therapy short-course (DOTS) strategy is insufficient in this setting. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of pulmonary TB (PTB) and HIV infection in a community of 13,000 with high HIV prevalence and high TB notification rate and a well-functioning DOTS TB control program.

METHODS

Active case finding for PTB was performed in 762 adults using sputum microscopy and Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture, testing for HIV, and a symptom and risk factor questionnaire. Survey findings were correlated with notification data extracted from the TB treatment register.

RESULTS

Of those surveyed, 174 (23%) tested HIV positive, 11 (7 HIV positive) were receiving TB therapy, 6 (5 HIV positive) had previously undiagnosed smear-positive PTB, and 6 (4 HIV positive) had smear-negative/culture-positive PTB. Symptoms were not a useful screen for PTB. Among HIV-positive and -negative individuals, prevalence of notified smear-positive PTB was 1,563/100,000 and 352/100,000, undiagnosed smear-positive PTB prevalence was 2,837/100,000 and 175/100,000, and case-finding proportions were 37 and 67%, respectively. Estimated duration of infectiousness was similar for HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals. However, 87% of total person-years of undiagnosed smear-positive TB in the community were among HIV-infected individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

PTB was identified in 9% of HIV-infected individuals, with 5% being previously undiagnosed. Lack of symptoms suggestive of PTB may contribute to low case-finding rates. DOTS strategy based on passive case finding should be supplemented by active case finding targeting HIV-infected individuals.

STD screening, testing, case reporting, and clinical and partner notification practices: a national survey of US physicians

OBJECTIVES

This study presents results from a national survey of US physicians that assessed screening, case reporting, partner management, and clinical practices for syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV infection.

METHODS

Surveys were mailed to a random sample of 7300 physicians to assess screening, testing, reporting, and partner notification for syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV.

RESULTS

Fewer than one third of physicians routinely screened men or women (pregnant or nonpregnant) for STDs. Case reporting was lowest for chlamydia (37 percent), intermediate for gonorrhea (44 percent), and higher for syphilis, HIV, and AIDS (53 percent-57 percent). Physicians instructed patients to notify their partners (82 percent-89 percent) or the health department (25 percent-34 percent) rather than doing so themselves.

CONCLUSIONS

STD screening levels are well below practice guidelines for women and virtually nonexistent for men. Case reporting levels are below those legally mandated; physicians rely instead on patients for partner notification. Health departments must increase collaboration with private physicians to improve the quality of STD care.

Infectious animal diseases: the wildlife/livestock interface

The long-standing conflict between livestock owners and animal health authorities on the one hand, and wildlife conservationists on the other, is largely based on differing attitudes to controlling diseases of livestock which are associated with wildlife. The authors have attempted to highlight the fact that these disease problems are frequently bi-directional at the wildlife/livestock interface. The different categories of diseases involved are presented. A new dimension being faced by veterinary regulatory authorities is the spectre of emerging sylvatic foci of diseases, such as bovine tuberculosis, bovine brucellosis and possibly rinderpest; these diseases threaten to undermine national and international eradication schemes, which have been implemented and executed with significant success, and at great cost. Conversely, wildlife-based ecotourism world-wide has expanded rapidly over the past decade and is the source of lacking foreign revenue for many developing countries. Traditional subsistence farming is still the largest source of much-needed protein on some continents and this, together with the growth and hunger of historically disadvantaged communities for land, is forcing enterprises and communities with markedly different objectives and land-use practices to operate effectively in close proximity. Some land-users rely exclusively on wildlife, others on livestock and/or agronomy, while yet others need to combine these activities. The net result may be an expansion or intensification of the interface between wildlife and domestic livestock, which will require innovative control strategies that permit differing types of wildlife/livestock interaction, and that do not threaten the land-use options of neighbours, or the ability of a country to market animals and animal products profitably.

A Review of State Guidelines for Elective Orthopaedic Procedures During the COVID-19 Outbreak

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in widespread cancellation of elective orthopaedic procedures. The guidance coming from multiple sources frequently has been difficult to assimilate as well as dynamic, with constantly changing standards. We seek to communicate the current guidelines published by each state, to discuss the impact of these guidelines on orthopaedic surgery, and to provide the general framework used to determine which procedures have been postponed at our institution.

METHODS

An internet search was used to identify published state guidelines regarding the cancellation of elective procedures, with a publication cutoff of March 24, 2020, 5:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. Data collected included the number of states providing guidance to cancel elective procedures and which states provided specific guidance in determining which procedures should continue being performed as well as to orthopaedic-specific guidance.

RESULTS

Thirty states published guidance regarding the discontinuation of elective procedures, and 16 states provided a definition of "elective" procedures or specific guidance for determining which procedures should continue to be performed. Only 5 states provided guidelines specifically mentioning orthopaedic surgery; of those, 4 states explicitly allowed for trauma-related procedures and 4 states provided guidance against performing arthroplasty. Ten states provided guidelines allowing for the continuation of oncological procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

Few states have published guidelines specific to orthopaedic surgery during the COVID-19 outbreak, leaving hospital systems and surgeons with the responsibility of balancing the benefits of surgery with the risks to public health.

Assessment of worldwide tuberculosis control. WHO Global Surveillance and Monitoring Project

BACKGROUND

Because worldwide tuberculosis (TB) control had never been assessed, WHO set up a surveillance and monitoring project in 1995. The objectives were to assess the performance of national TB programmes; to assess the extent of implementation of the WHO strategy of TB control; and to attempt a comparison between regions that had adopted the WHO strategy and those that had not.

METHODS

In June, 1996, we sent data-collection forms requesting information on national TB programmes' control policies, 1995 case notifications, and 1994 treatment results to 216 countries, areas, and territories. We assessed the performance of national TB programmes by comparing case notifications with estimated incidence and by outcome of treatment in cohorts of patients. We also investigated worldwide treatment success and case detection among sputum-smear-positive patients.

FINDINGS

180 (83%) of the 216 countries, areas, and territories surveyed replied to WHO (98% of the worldwide population). In 1995, the WHO control strategy had been implemented in 75 countries, and in 39 of these implementation was countrywide. UP to 23% of the worldwide population lived in regions where the strategy was available. In 1995, 3 297 688 cases of TB (all types) were reported, of which 1161411 (35%) were sputum-smear positive. 54% of all reported cases in countries that used the WHO strategy were sputum-smear positive, compared with 30% in other countries. The worldwide case-detection rate of new sputum-smear-positive cases was 35%. 92% of cases registered for treatment in 1994 in regions that used WHO strategy were assessed for outcome and 76% were treated successfully, compared with 54% and 42%, respectively, in regions that had not implemented the WHO strategy. Among cases reported worldwide in 1994, the documented treatment-success rate was 43%.

INTERPRETATION

National TB programmes that have adopted the WHO TB control strategy achieve higher cure rates, but their impact on TB is modest on a worldwide scale. Wider continuous coverage with the WHO strategy is needed for effective worldwide TB control.

Association of COVID-19 Misinformation with Face Mask Wearing and Social Distancing in a Nationally Representative US Sample

Wide-spread misinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic has presented challenges for communicating public health recommendations. Should campaigns to promote protective behaviors focus on debunking misinformation or targeting behavior-specific beliefs? To address this question, we examine whether belief in COVID-19 misinformation is directly associated with two behaviors (face mask wearing and social distancing), and whether behavior-specific beliefs can account for this association and better predict behavior, consistent with behavior-change theory. We conducted a nationally representative two-wave survey of U.S. adults from 5/26/20-6/12/20 (n = 1074) and 7/15/20-7/21//20 (n = 889; follow-up response 83%). Scales were developed and validated for COVID-19 related misinformation beliefs, social distancing and face mask wearing, and beliefs about the consequences of both behaviors. Cross-lagged panel linear regression models assessed relationships among the variables. While belief in misinformation was negatively associated with both face mask wearing (B = -.27, SE =.06) and social-distancing behaviors (B = -.46, SE =.08) measured at the same time, misinformation did not predict concurrent or lagged behavior when the behavior-specific beliefs were incorporated in the models. Beliefs about behavioral outcomes accounted for face mask wearing and social distancing, both cross-sectionally (B =.43, SE =.05; B =.63, SE =.09) and lagged over time (B =.20, SE = 04; B =.30, SE =.08). In conclusion, belief in COVID-19-related misinformation is less relevant to protective behaviors, but beliefs about the consequences of these behaviors are important predictors. With regard to misinformation, we recommend health campaigns aimed at promoting protective behaviors emphasize the benefits of these behaviors, rather than debunking unrelated false claims.

Association Between Income Inequality and County-Level COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US

Importance

Socioeconomically marginalized communities have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Income inequality may be a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection and death from COVID-19.

Objective

To evaluate the association between county-level income inequality and COVID-19 cases and deaths from March 2020 through February 2021 in bimonthly time epochs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This ecological cohort study used longitudinal data on county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, in 3220 counties from all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia.

Main Outcomes and Measures

County-level daily COVID-19 case and death data from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, were extracted from the COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland.

Exposure

The Gini coefficient, a measure of unequal income distribution (presented as a value between 0 and 1, where 0 represents a perfectly equal geographical region where all income is equally shared and 1 represents a perfectly unequal society where all income is earned by 1 individual), and other county-level data were obtained primarily from the 2014 to 2018 American Community Survey 5-year estimates. Covariates included median proportions of poverty, age, race/ethnicity, crowding given by occupancy per room, urbanicity and rurality, educational level, number of physicians per 100 000 individuals, state, and mask use at the county level.

Results

As of February 28, 2021, on average, each county recorded a median of 8891 cases of COVID-19 per 100 000 individuals (interquartile range, 6935-10 666 cases per 100 000 individuals) and 156 deaths per 100 000 individuals (interquartile range, 94-228 deaths per 100 000 individuals). The median county-level Gini coefficient was 0.44 (interquartile range, 0.42-0.47). There was a positive correlation between Gini coefficients and county-level COVID-19 cases (Spearman ρ = 0.052; P < .001) and deaths (Spearman ρ = 0.134; P < .001) during the study period. This association varied over time; each 0.05-unit increase in Gini coefficient was associated with an adjusted relative risk of COVID-19 deaths: 1.25 (95% CI, 1.17-1.33) in March and April 2020, 1.20 (95% CI, 1.13-1.28) in May and June 2020, 1.46 (95% CI, 1.37-1.55) in July and August 2020, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.98-1.10) in September and October 2020, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) in November and December 2020, and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96-1.07) in January and February 2021 (P < .001 for interaction). The adjusted association of the Gini coefficient with COVID-19 cases also reached a peak in July and August 2020 (relative risk, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.22-1.33]).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study suggests that income inequality within US counties was associated with more cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in the summer months of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast disparities that exist in health outcomes owing to income inequality in the US. Targeted interventions should be focused on areas of income inequality to both flatten the curve and lessen the burden of inequality.

Antibiotic resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae

The incidence of gonorrhea is increasing in developed countries and remains high elsewhere. This untenable disease burden, the complication rate in women and newborns, and the amplification of human immunodeficiency virus transmission that accompanies gonorrhea makes control of gonococcal disease a priority. However, antibiotic resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae has severely compromised the successful treatment of gonorrhea. Older therapies are ineffective, whereas those that remain efficacious are unaffordable in many high-incidence settings. Penicillins, tetracyclines, and newer macrolides have limited utility, and spectinomycin (and in many parts of the world, quinolones) have been withdrawn because of resistance. Of the usually recommended treatments, only the third-generation cephalosporins, and most notably ceftriaxone, have retained their efficacy, but decreased susceptibility to these antibiotics has also appeared. A sustained decrease in gonococcal disease requires an integrated approach combining improved prevention, better diagnosis, and effective treatment. Without continued commitment and effort, gonorrhea may well become untreatable.

Improving tuberculosis control through public-private collaboration in India: literature review

OBJECTIVE

To review the characteristics of public-private mix projects in India and their effect on case notification and treatment outcomes for tuberculosis.

DESIGN

Literature review.

DATA SOURCES

Review of surveillance records from Indian tuberculosis programme project, evaluation reports, and medical literature for public-private mix projects in India.

DATA EXTRACTION

Project characteristics, tuberculosis case notification of new patients with sputum smear results positive for acid fast bacilli, and treatment outcome.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of 24 identified public-private mix projects, data were available from 14 (58%), involving private practitioners, corporations, and non-governmental organisations. In all reviewed projects, the public sector tuberculosis programme provided training and supervision of private providers. Among the five projects with available data on historical controls, case notification rates were higher after implementation of a public-private mix project. Among seven projects involving private practitioners, 2796 of 12 147 (23%) new patients positive for acid fast bacilli were attributed to private providers. Corporate based and non-governmental organisations served as the main source for tuberculosis programme services in seven project areas, detecting 9967 new patients positive for acid fast bacilli. In nine of 12 projects with data on treatment outcomes, private providers exceeded the programme target of 85% treatment success for new patients positive for acid fast bacilli.

CONCLUSIONS

Public-private mix activities were associated with increased case notification, while maintaining acceptable treatment outcomes. Collaborations between public and private providers of health care hold considerable potential to improve tuberculosis control in India.

Anatomy education of medical and dental students during COVID-19 pandemic: a reality check

PURPOSE

During this forced down-time of COVID-19 pandemic, shift to virtual anatomy education is the solitary solution to support the learning of students. The purpose of this study was to understand the visible and invisible potential challenges being faced by the 1st year medical and dental students while attending digital anatomy classes.

METHODS

The present study was conducted on 81st year medical and dental students who were admitted to their respective college in August 2019 and were willing to participate in the study. A multiple choice close-ended questionnaire regarding their opinion on virtual classes was designed and feedback was taken from the students.

RESULTS

Majority (65%) of the students agreed that they missed their traditional anatomy learning i.e., dissection courses, face to face lectures and interaction with mentors. The students strongly felt the lack of confidence and difficulty in the topics completed without dissections, models, microscopic slides and other modalities. 83% felt lack of proper gadgets, high-band width and strong internet connections, a potential barrier in their digital learning. Lack of self-motivation was felt by 69% students.

CONCLUSIONS

The current situation of anatomy education is not intentional, and is not the long term silver bullet solution for a visual subject like anatomy. Though learners face a lot of challenges, however, a shift to online must be supported at this time of health crisis. As the digital learning may go for indefinite period, the feedback of students may be helpful for relevant and timely modifications in digital anatomy education.

COVID-19 and older people in Asia: Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia calls to actions

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has casted a huge impact on global public health and the economy. In this challenging situation, older people are vulnerable to the infection and the secondary effects of the pandemic and need special attention. To evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 on older people, it is important to balance the successful pandemic control and active management of secondary consequences. These considerations are particularly salient in the Asian context, with its diversity among countries in terms of sociocultural heritage, healthcare setup and availability of resources. Thus, the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia summarized the considerations of Asian countries focusing on responses and difficulties in each country, impacts of health inequity related to the COVID-19 pandemic and proposed recommendations for older people, which are germane to the Asian context. More innovative services should be developed to address the increasing demands for new approaches to deliver healthcare in these difficult times and to establish resilient healthcare systems for older people. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 9999: n/a-n/a.

New-onset type 1 diabetes in Finnish children during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Viral infections may trigger type 1 diabetes (T1D), and recent reports suggest an increased incidence of paediatric T1D and/or diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To study whether the number of children admitted to the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) for DKA due to new-onset T1D increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether SARS-CoV-2 infection plays a role.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study comprises two datasets: (1) children admitted to PICU due to new-onset T1D and (2) children diagnosed with new-onset T1D and registered to the Finnish Pediatric Diabetes Registry in the Helsinki University Hospital from 1 April to 31 October in 2016-2020. We compared the incidence, number and characteristics of children with newly diagnosed T1D between the prepandemic and pandemic periods.

RESULTS

The number of children admitted to PICU due to new-onset T1D increased from an average of 6.25 admissions in 2016-2019 to 20 admissions in 2020 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 3.24 [95% CI 1.80 to 5.83]; p=0.0001). On average, 57.75 children were registered to the FPDR in 2016-2019, as compared with 84 in 2020 (IRR 1.45; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.86; p=0.004). 33 of the children diagnosed in 2020 were analysed for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and all were negative.

CONCLUSIONS

More children with T1D had severe DKA at diagnosis during the pandemic. This was not a consequence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Instead, it probably stems from delays in diagnosis following changes in parental behaviour and healthcare accessibility.

Tuberculosis among foreign-born persons in the United States: achieving tuberculosis elimination

RATIONALE

In the United States, the number of annual reported cases of tuberculosis (TB) among U.S.-born persons declined by 62% from 1993 to 2004, but increased by 5% among foreign-born persons. Over half of all reported cases of TB in the United States occur among foreign-born persons, most of these due to activation of latent TB infection (LTBI). Current guidelines recommend targeting only foreign-born persons who entered the United States within the previous 5 yr for LTBI testing.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to assess the epidemiologic basis for this guideline.

METHODS

We calculated TB case rates among foreign-born persons, stratified by duration of United States residence and world region of origin. We determined the number of cases using 2004 U.S. TB surveillance data, and calculated case rates using population data from the 2004 American Community Survey.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In 2004, a total of 14,517 cases of TB were reported; 3,444 (24%) of these were among foreign-born persons who had entered the United States more than 5 yr previously. The rate of TB disease among foreign-born persons was 21.5/100,000, compared with 2.7/100,000 for U.S.-born persons, and varied by duration of residence and world region of origin.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost one-quarter of all TB cases in the United States occur among foreign-born persons who have resided in the United States for longer than 5 yr; case rates for such persons from selected regions of origin remain substantially elevated. To eliminate TB, we must address the burden of LTBI in this high-risk group.

Global public health surveillance under new international health regulations

The new International Health Regulations adopted by the World Health Assembly in May 2005 (IHR 2005) represents a major development in the use of international law for public health purposes. One of the most important aspects of IHR 2005 is the establishment of a global surveillance system for public health emergencies of international concern. This article assesses the surveillance system in IHR 2005 by applying well-established frameworks for evaluating public health surveillance. The assessment shows that IHR 2005 constitutes a major advance in global surveillance from what has prevailed in the past. Effectively implementing the IHR 2005 surveillance objectives requires surmounting technical, resource, governance, legal, and political obstacles. Although IHR 2005 contains some provisions that directly address these obstacles, active support by the World Health Organization and its member states is required to strengthen national and global surveillance capabilities.

Wildlife reservoirs for bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) in Canada: strategies for management and research

In Canada, there are two known regional foci where wildlife populations are infected with bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) and considered to be disease reservoirs. Free-ranging populations of wood bison (Bison bison athabascae) in and around Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP) and wapiti (Cervus elaphus manitobensis) in and around Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) are infected with bovine tuberculosis. In this paper, we provide an overview of these diseased wild ungulate populations and the complexities of attempting to manage issues relating to bovine tuberculosis in and around protected areas. We do not describe the quantitative science and epidemiological data in detail from these case histories, but instead compare and contrast these two cases from a broader perspective. This is achieved by reviewing the context and process by which a diverse group of stakeholders engage and develop strategies to address the controversial problems that diseased wildlife populations often present. We suggest that understanding the factors that drive the strategic-level management processes is equally important for addressing a wildlife disease problem as the tactical-level issues, such as design and implementation of technically sound field research and management programs. Understanding the experiences within the WBNP and RMNP areas, particularly the strategies that have failed or succeeded, may prove useful to understanding and improving management approaches when wildlife are infected with M. bovis. Applying this understanding is consistent with the principles of adaptive management in which we learn from previous experiences to develop better strategies for the future.

Infectious diseases in children and adolescents in China: analysis of national surveillance data from 2008 to 2017

OBJECTIVES

To outline which infectious diseases in the pre-covid-19 era persist in children and adolescents in China and to describe recent trends and variations by age, sex, season, and province.

DESIGN

National surveillance studies, 2008-17.

SETTING

31 provinces in mainland China.

PARTICIPANTS

4 959 790 Chinese students aged 6 to 22 years with a diagnosis of any of 44 notifiable infectious diseases. The diseases were categorised into seven groups: quarantinable; vaccine preventable; gastrointestinal and enteroviral; vectorborne; zoonotic; bacterial; and sexually transmitted and bloodborne.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diagnosis of, and deaths from, 44 notifiable infectious diseases.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2017, 44 notifiable infectious diseases were diagnosed in 4 959 790 participants (3 045 905 males, 1 913 885 females) and there were 2532 deaths (1663 males, 869 females). The leading causes of death among infectious diseases shifted from rabies and tuberculosis to HIV/AIDS, particularly in males. Mortality from infectious diseases decreased steadily from 0.21 per 100 000 population in 2008 to 0.07 per 100 000 in 2017. Quarantinable conditions with high mortality have effectively disappeared. The incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in children and adolescents decreased from 280 per 100 000 in 2008 to 162 per 100 000 in 2015, but rose again to 242 per 100 000 in 2017, largely related to mumps and seasonal influenza. Excluding mumps and influenza, the incidence of vaccine preventable diseases fell from 96 per 100 000 in 2008 to 7 per 100 000 in 2017. The incidence of gastrointestinal and enterovirus diseases remained constant, but typhoid, paratyphoid, and dysentery continued to decline. Vectorborne diseases all declined, with a particularly noticeable reduction in malaria. Zoonotic infections remained at low incidence, but there were still unpredictable outbreaks, such as pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Tuberculosis remained the most common bacterial infection, although cases of scarlet fever doubled between 2008 and 2017. Sexually transmitted diseases and bloodborne infections increased significantly, particularly from 2011 to 2017, among which HIV/AIDS increased fivefold, particularly in males. Difference was noticeable between regions, with children and adolescents in western China continuing to carry a disproportionate burden from infectious diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

China's success in infectious disease control in the pre-covid-19 era was notable, with deaths due to infectious diseases in children and adolescents aged 6-22 years becoming rare. Many challenges remain around reducing regional inequalities, scaling-up of vaccination, prevention of further escalation of HIV/AIDS, renewed efforts for persisting diseases, and undertaking early and effective response to highly transmissible seasonal and unpredictable diseases such as that caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus.