The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3)

IMPORTANCE

Definitions of sepsis and septic shock were last revised in 2001. Considerable advances have since been made into the pathobiology (changes in organ function, morphology, cell biology, biochemistry, immunology, and circulation), management, and epidemiology of sepsis, suggesting the need for reexamination.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and, as needed, update definitions for sepsis and septic shock.

PROCESS

A task force (n = 19) with expertise in sepsis pathobiology, clinical trials, and epidemiology was convened by the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Definitions and clinical criteria were generated through meetings, Delphi processes, analysis of electronic health record databases, and voting, followed by circulation to international professional societies, requesting peer review and endorsement (by 31 societies listed in the Acknowledgment).

KEY FINDINGS FROM EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Limitations of previous definitions included an excessive focus on inflammation, the misleading model that sepsis follows a continuum through severe sepsis to shock, and inadequate specificity and sensitivity of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria. Multiple definitions and terminologies are currently in use for sepsis, septic shock, and organ dysfunction, leading to discrepancies in reported incidence and observed mortality. The task force concluded the term severe sepsis was redundant.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Sepsis should be defined as life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. For clinical operationalization, organ dysfunction can be represented by an increase in the Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of 2 points or more, which is associated with an in-hospital mortality greater than 10%. Septic shock should be defined as a subset of sepsis in which particularly profound circulatory, cellular, and metabolic abnormalities are associated with a greater risk of mortality than with sepsis alone. Patients with septic shock can be clinically identified by a vasopressor requirement to maintain a mean arterial pressure of 65 mm Hg or greater and serum lactate level greater than 2 mmol/L (>18 mg/dL) in the absence of hypovolemia. This combination is associated with hospital mortality rates greater than 40%. In out-of-hospital, emergency department, or general hospital ward settings, adult patients with suspected infection can be rapidly identified as being more likely to have poor outcomes typical of sepsis if they have at least 2 of the following clinical criteria that together constitute a new bedside clinical score termed quickSOFA (qSOFA): respiratory rate of 22/min or greater, altered mentation, or systolic blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or less.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These updated definitions and clinical criteria should replace previous definitions, offer greater consistency for epidemiologic studies and clinical trials, and facilitate earlier recognition and more timely management of patients with sepsis or at risk of developing sepsis.

Coding algorithms for defining comorbidities in ICD-9-CM and ICD-10 administrative data

OBJECTIVES

Implementation of the International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) coding system presents challenges for using administrative data. Recognizing this, we conducted a multistep process to develop ICD-10 coding algorithms to define Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidities in administrative data and assess the performance of the resulting algorithms.

METHODS

ICD-10 coding algorithms were developed by "translation" of the ICD-9-CM codes constituting Deyo's (for Charlson comorbidities) and Elixhauser's coding algorithms and by physicians' assessment of the face-validity of selected ICD-10 codes. The process of carefully developing ICD-10 algorithms also produced modified and enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithms for the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidities. We then used data on in-patients aged 18 years and older in ICD-9-CM and ICD-10 administrative hospital discharge data from a Canadian health region to assess the comorbidity frequencies and mortality prediction achieved by the original ICD-9-CM algorithms, the enhanced ICD-9-CM algorithms, and the new ICD-10 coding algorithms.

RESULTS

Among 56,585 patients in the ICD-9-CM data and 58,805 patients in the ICD-10 data, frequencies of the 17 Charlson comorbidities and the 30 Elixhauser comorbidities remained generally similar across algorithms. The new ICD-10 and enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithms either matched or outperformed the original Deyo and Elixhauser ICD-9-CM coding algorithms in predicting in-hospital mortality. The C-statistic was 0.842 for Deyo's ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, 0.860 for the ICD-10 coding algorithm, and 0.859 for the enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, 0.868 for the original Elixhauser ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, 0.870 for the ICD-10 coding algorithm and 0.878 for the enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithm.

CONCLUSIONS

These newly developed ICD-10 and ICD-9-CM comorbidity coding algorithms produce similar estimates of comorbidity prevalence in administrative data, and may outperform existing ICD-9-CM coding algorithms.

The worldwide prevalence of ADHD: a systematic review and metaregression analysis

OBJECTIVE

The worldwide prevalence estimates of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)/hyperkinetic disorder (HD) are highly heterogeneous. Presently, the reasons for this discrepancy remain poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to determine the possible causes of the varied worldwide estimates of the disorder and to compute its worldwide-pooled prevalence.

METHOD

The authors searched MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases from January 1978 to December 2005 and reviewed textbooks and reference lists of the studies selected. Authors of relevant articles from North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East and ADHD/HD experts were contacted. Surveys were included if they reported point prevalence of ADHD/HD for subjects 18 years of age or younger from the general population or schools according to DSM or ICD criteria.

RESULTS

The literature search generated 9,105 records, and 303 full-text articles were reviewed. One hundred and two studies comprising 171,756 subjects from all world regions were included. The ADHD/HD worldwide-pooled prevalence was 5.29%. This estimate was associated with significant variability. In the multivariate metaregression model, diagnostic criteria, source of information, requirement of impairment for diagnosis, and geographic origin of the studies were significantly associated with ADHD/HD prevalence rates. Geographic location was associated with significant variability only between estimates from North America and both Africa and the Middle East. No significant differences were found between Europe and North America.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that geographic location plays a limited role in the reasons for the large variability of ADHD/HD prevalence estimates worldwide. Instead, this variability seems to be explained primarily by the methodological characteristics of studies.

Depression, chronic diseases, and decrements in health: results from the World Health Surveys

BACKGROUND

Depression is an important public-health problem, and one of the leading causes of disease burden worldwide. Depression is often comorbid with other chronic diseases and can worsen their associated health outcomes. Few studies have explored the effect of depression, alone or as a comorbidity, on overall health status.

METHODS

The WHO World Health Survey (WHS) studied adults aged 18 years and older to obtain data for health, health-related outcomes, and their determinants. Prevalence of depression in respondents based on ICD-10 criteria was estimated. Prevalence values for four chronic physical diseases--angina, arthritis, asthma, and diabetes--were also estimated using algorithms derived via a Diagnostic Item Probability Study. Mean health scores were constructed using factor analysis and compared across different disease states and demographic variables. The relation of these disease states to mean health scores was determined through regression modelling.

FINDINGS

Observations were available for 245 404 participants from 60 countries in all regions of the world. Overall, 1-year prevalence for ICD-10 depressive episode alone was 3.2% (95% CI 3.0-3.5); for angina 4.5% (4.3-4.8); for arthritis 4.1% (3.8-4.3); for asthma 3.3% (2.9-3.6); and for diabetes 2.0% (1.8-2.2). An average of between 9.3% and 23.0% of participants with one or more chronic physical disease had comorbid depression. This result was significantly higher than the likelihood of having depression in the absence of a chronic physical disease (p<0.0001). After adjustment for socioeconomic factors and health conditions, depression had the largest effect on worsening mean health scores compared with the other chronic conditions. Consistently across countries and different demographic characteristics, respondents with depression comorbid with one or more chronic diseases had the worst health scores of all the disease states.

INTERPRETATION

Depression produces the greatest decrement in health compared with the chronic diseases angina, arthritis, asthma, and diabetes. The comorbid state of depression incrementally worsens health compared with depression alone, with any of the chronic diseases alone, and with any combination of chronic diseases without depression. These results indicate the urgency of addressing depression as a public-health priority to reduce disease burden and disability, and to improve the overall health of populations.

Proposed international clinical diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular edema disease severity scales

PURPOSE

To develop consensus regarding clinical disease severity classification systems for diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular edema that can be used around the world, and to improve communication and coordination of care among physicians who care for patients with diabetes.

DESIGN

Report regarding the development of clinical diabetic retinopathy disease severity scales.

PARTICIPANTS

A group of 31 individuals from 16 countries, representing comprehensive ophthalmology, retina subspecialties, endocrinology, and epidemiology.

METHODS

An initial clinical classification system, based on the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study and the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy publications, was circulated to the group in advance of a workshop. Each member reviewed this using e-mail, and a modified Delphi system was used to stratify responses. At a later workshop, separate systems for diabetic retinopathy and macular edema were developed. These were then reevaluated by group members, and the modified Delphi system was again used to measure degrees of agreement.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Consensus regarding specific classification systems was achieved.

RESULTS

A five-stage disease severity classification for diabetic retinopathy includes three stages of low risk, a fourth stage of severe nonproliferative retinopathy, and a fifth stage of proliferative retinopathy. Diabetic macular edema is classified as apparently present or apparently absent. If training and equipment allow the screener to make a valid decision, macular edema is further categorized as a function of its distance from the central macula.

CONCLUSIONS

There seems to be a genuine need for consistent international clinical classification systems for diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular edema that are supported with solid evidence. The proposed clinical classification systems provide a means of appropriately categorizing diabetic retinopathy and macular edema. It is hoped that these systems will be valuable in improving both screening of individuals with diabetes and communication and discussion among individuals caring for these patients.

New ICD-10 version of the Charlson comorbidity index predicted in-hospital mortality

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The ICD-9-CM adaptation of the Charlson comorbidity score has been a valuable resource for health services researchers. With the transition into ICD-10 coding worldwide, an ICD-10 version of the Deyo adaptation was developed and validated using population-based hospital data from Victoria, Australia.

METHODS

The algorithm was translated from ICD-9-CM into ICD-10-AM (Australian modification) in a multistep process. After a mapping algorithm was used to develop an initial translation, these codes were manually examined by the coding experts and a general physician for face validity. Because the ICD-10 system is country specific, our goal was to keep many of the translated code at the three-digit level for generalizability of the new index.

RESULTS

There appears to be little difference in the distribution of the Charlson Index score between the two versions. A strong association between increasing index scores and mortality exists: the area under the ROC curve is 0.865 for the last year using the ICD-9-CM version and remains high, at 0.855, for the ICD-10 version.

CONCLUSION

This work represents the first rigorous adaptation of the Charlson comorbidity index for use with ICD-10 data. In comparison with a well-established ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, it yields closely similar prevalence and prognosis information by comorbidity category.

Influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States

CONTEXT

Respiratory viral infections are responsible for a large number of hospitalizations in the United States each year.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate annual influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States by hospital discharge category, discharge type, and age group.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) data and World Health Organization Collaborating Laboratories influenza surveillance data were used to estimate annual average numbers of hospitalizations associated with the circulation of influenza viruses from the 1979-1980 through the 2000-2001 seasons in the United States using age-specific Poisson regression models.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated influenza-associated hospitalizations for primary and any listed pneumonia and influenza and respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Annual averages of 94,735 (range, 18,908-193,561) primary and 133,900 (range, 30,757-271,529) any listed pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus infections. Annual averages of 226,54 (range, 54,523-430,960) primary and 294,128 (range, 86,494-544,909) any listed respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus infections. Persons 85 years or older had the highest rates of influenza-associated primary respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations (1194.9 per 100,000 persons). Children younger than 5 years (107.9 primary respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations per 100,000 persons) had rates similar to persons aged 50 through 64 years. Estimated rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations were highest during seasons in which A(H3N2) viruses predominated, followed by B and A(H1N1) seasons. After adjusting for the length of each influenza season, influenza-associated primary pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations increased over time among the elderly. There were no significant increases in influenza-associated primary respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations after adjusting for the length of the influenza season.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant numbers of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States occur among the elderly, and the numbers of these hospitalizations have increased substantially over the last 2 decades due in part to the aging of the population. Children younger than 5 years had rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations similar to those among individuals aged 50 through 64 years. These findings highlight the need for improved influenza prevention efforts for both young and older US residents.

Global, regional, and national burden of Parkinson's disease, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and ageing is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson's disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson's disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses.

METHODS

Through a systematic analysis of epidemiological studies, we estimated global, regional, and country-specific prevalence and years of life lived with disability for Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2016. We estimated the proportion of mild, moderate, and severe Parkinson's disease on the basis of studies that used the Hoehn and Yahr scale and assigned disability weights to each level. We jointly modelled prevalence and excess mortality risk in a natural history model to derive estimates of deaths due to Parkinson's disease. Death counts were multiplied by values from the Global Burden of Disease study's standard life expectancy to compute years of life lost. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were computed as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.

FINDINGS

In 2016, 6·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·0-7·3) individuals had Parkinson's disease globally, compared with 2·5 million (2·0-3·0) in 1990. This increase was not solely due to increasing numbers of older people, because age-standardised prevalence rates increased by 21·7% (95% UI 18·1-25·3) over the same period (compared with an increase of 74·3%, 95% UI 69·2-79·6, for crude prevalence rates). Parkinson's disease caused 3·2 million (95% UI 2·6-4·0) DALYs and 211 296 deaths (95% UI 167 771-265 160) in 2016. The male-to-female ratios of age-standardised prevalence rates were similar in 2016 (1·40, 95% UI 1·36-1·43) and 1990 (1·37, 1·34-1·40). From 1990 to 2016, age-standardised prevalence, DALY rates, and death rates increased for all global burden of disease regions except for southern Latin America, eastern Europe, and Oceania. In addition, age-standardised DALY rates generally increased across the Socio-demographic Index.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past generation, the global burden of Parkinson's disease has more than doubled as a result of increasing numbers of older people, with potential contributions from longer disease duration and environmental factors. Demographic and potentially other factors are poised to increase the future burden of Parkinson's disease substantially.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is still one of the most mysterious and costliest mental disorders in terms of human suffering and societal expenditure. Here, we focus on the key developments in biology, epidemiology, and pharmacology of schizophrenia and provide a syndromal framework in which these aspects can be understood together. Symptoms typically emerge in adolescence and early adulthood. The incidence of the disorder varies greatly across places and migrant groups, as do symptoms, course, and treatment response across individuals. Genetic vulnerability is shared in part with bipolar disorder and recent molecular genetic findings also indicate an overlap with developmental disorders such as autism. The diagnosis of schizophrenia is associated with demonstrable alterations in brain structure and changes in dopamine neurotransmission, the latter being directly related to hallucinations and delusions. Pharmacological treatments, which block the dopamine system, are effective for delusions and hallucinations but less so for disabling cognitive and motivational impairments. Specific vocational and psychological interventions, in combination with antipsychotic medication in a context of community-case management, can improve functional outcome but are not widely available. 100 years after being so named, research is beginning to understand the biological mechanisms underlying the symptoms of schizophrenia and the psychosocial factors that moderate their expression. Although current treatments provide control rather than cure, long-term hospitalisation is not required and prognosis is better than traditionally assumed.

Pediatric complex chronic conditions classification system version 2: updated for ICD-10 and complex medical technology dependence and transplantation

BACKGROUND

The pediatric complex chronic conditions (CCC) classification system, developed in 2000, requires revision to accommodate the International Classification of Disease 10th Revision (ICD-10). To update the CCC classification system, we incorporated ICD-9 diagnostic codes that had been either omitted or incorrectly specified in the original system, and then translated between ICD-9 and ICD-10 using General Equivalence Mappings (GEMs). We further reviewed all codes in the ICD-9 and ICD-10 systems to include both diagnostic and procedural codes indicative of technology dependence or organ transplantation. We applied the provisional CCC version 2 (v2) system to death certificate information and 2 databases of health utilization, reviewed the resulting CCC classifications, and corrected any misclassifications. Finally, we evaluated performance of the CCC v2 system by assessing: 1) the stability of the system between ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes using data which included both ICD-9 codes and ICD-10 codes; 2) the year-to-year stability before and after ICD-10 implementation; and 3) the proportions of patients classified as having a CCC in both the v1 and v2 systems.

RESULTS

The CCC v2 classification system consists of diagnostic and procedural codes that incorporate a new neonatal CCC category as well as domains of complexity arising from technology dependence or organ transplantation. CCC v2 demonstrated close comparability between ICD-9 and ICD-10 and did not detect significant discontinuity in temporal trends of death in the United States. Compared to the original system, CCC v2 resulted in a 1.0% absolute (10% relative) increase in the number of patients identified as having a CCC in national hospitalization dataset, and a 0.4% absolute (24% relative) increase in a national emergency department dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

The updated CCC v2 system is comprehensive and multidimensional, and provides a necessary update to accommodate widespread implementation of ICD-10.

Prevalence of disorders of the autism spectrum in a population cohort of children in South Thames: the Special Needs and Autism Project (SNAP)

BACKGROUND

Recent reports have suggested that the prevalence of autism and related spectrum disorders (ASDs) is substantially higher than previously recognised. We sought to quantify prevalence of ASDs in children in South Thames, UK.

METHODS

Within a total population cohort of 56 946 children aged 9-10 years, we screened all those with a current clinical diagnosis of ASD (n=255) or those judged to be at risk for being an undetected case (n=1515). A stratified subsample (n=255) received a comprehensive diagnostic assessment, including standardised clinical observation, and parent interview assessments of autistic symptoms, language, and intelligence quotient (IQ). Clinical consensus diagnoses of childhood autism and other ASDs were derived. We used a sample weighting procedure to estimate prevalence.

FINDINGS

The prevalence of childhood autism was 38.9 per 10,000 (95% CI 29.9-47.8) and that of other ASDs was 77.2 per 10,000 (52.1-102.3), making the total prevalence of all ASDs 116.1 per 10,000 (90.4-141.8). A narrower definition of childhood autism, which combined clinical consensus with instrument criteria for past and current presentation, provided a prevalence of 24.8 per 10,000 (17.6-32.0). The rate of previous local identification was lowest for children of less educated parents.

INTERPRETATION

Prevalence of autism and related ASDs is substantially greater than previously recognised. Whether the increase is due to better ascertainment, broadening diagnostic criteria, or increased incidence is unclear. Services in health, education, and social care will need to recognise the needs of children with some form of ASD, who constitute 1% of the child population.

Prolonged grief disorder: Psychometric validation of criteria proposed for DSM-V and ICD-11

BACKGROUND

Bereavement is a universal experience, and its association with excess morbidity and mortality is well established. Nevertheless, grief becomes a serious health concern for a relative few. For such individuals, intense grief persists, is distressing and disabling, and may meet criteria as a distinct mental disorder. At present, grief is not recognized as a mental disorder in the DSM-IV or ICD-10. The goal of this study was to determine the psychometric validity of criteria for prolonged grief disorder (PGD) to enhance the detection and potential treatment of bereaved individuals at heightened risk of persistent distress and dysfunction.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A total of 291 bereaved respondents were interviewed three times, grouped as 0-6, 6-12, and 12-24 mo post-loss. Item response theory (IRT) analyses derived the most informative, unbiased PGD symptoms. Combinatoric analyses identified the most sensitive and specific PGD algorithm that was then tested to evaluate its psychometric validity. Criteria require reactions to a significant loss that involve the experience of yearning (e.g., physical or emotional suffering as a result of the desired, but unfulfilled, reunion with the deceased) and at least five of the following nine symptoms experienced at least daily or to a disabling degree: feeling emotionally numb, stunned, or that life is meaningless; experiencing mistrust; bitterness over the loss; difficulty accepting the loss; identity confusion; avoidance of the reality of the loss; or difficulty moving on with life. Symptoms must be present at sufficiently high levels at least six mo from the death and be associated with functional impairment.

CONCLUSIONS

The criteria set for PGD appear able to identify bereaved persons at heightened risk for enduring distress and dysfunction. The results support the psychometric validity of the criteria for PGD that we propose for inclusion in DSM-V and ICD-11. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary.

International Classification of Childhood Cancer, third edition

BACKGROUND

The third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3), which was published in 2000, introduced major changes in coding and classification of neoplasms, notably for leukemias and lymphomas, which are important groups of cancer types that occur in childhood. This necessitated a third revision of the 1996 International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3).

METHODS

The tumor categories for the ICCC-3 were designed to respect several principles: agreement with current international standards, integration of the entities defined by newly developed diagnostic techniques, continuity with previous childhood classifications, and exhaustiveness.

RESULTS

The ICCC-3 classifies tumors coded according to the ICD-O-3 into 12 main groups, which are split further into 47 subgroups. These 2 levels of the ICCC-3 allow standardized comparisons of the broad categories of childhood neoplasms in continuity with the previous classifications. The 16 most heterogeneous subgroups are broken down further into 2-11 divisions to allow study of important entities or homogeneous collections of tumors characterized at the cytogenetic or molecular level. Some divisions may be combined across the higher-level categories, such as the B-cell neoplasms within leukemias and lymphomas.

CONCLUSIONS

The ICCC-3 respects currently existing international standards and was designed for use in international, population-based, epidemiological studies and cancer registries. The use of an international classification system is especially important in the field of pediatric oncology, in which the low frequency of cases requires rigorous procedures to ensure data comparability.

Anxiety and anxiety disorders in children and adolescents: developmental issues and implications for DSM-V

This review summarizes findings on the epidemiology and etiology of anxiety disorders among children and adolescents including separation anxiety disorder, specific phobia, social phobia, agoraphobia, panic disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder, also highlighting critical aspects of diagnosis, assessment, and treatment. Childhood and adolescence is the core risk phase for the development of anxiety symptoms and syndromes, ranging from transient mild symptoms to full-blown anxiety disorders. This article critically reviews epidemiological evidence covering prevalence, incidence, course, and risk factors. The core challenge in this age span is the derivation of developmentally more sensitive assessment methods. Identification of characteristics that could serve as solid predictors for onset, course, and outcome will require prospective designs that assess a wide range of putative vulnerability and risk factors. This type of information is important for improved early recognition and differential diagnosis as well as prevention and treatment in this age span.

Incidence and Prevalence of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

RATIONALE

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a chronic interstitial lung disease of unknown etiology; its epidemiology in the United States has not been well characterized.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the annual incidence and prevalence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the United States.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort design utilizing a large health care claims database spanning the period January 1996 through December 2000.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Persons with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were identified based on diagnosis and procedure codes. Using broad case-finding criteria, prevalence was estimated to range from 4.0 per 100,000 persons aged 18 to 34 yr to 227.2 per 100,000 among those 75 yr or older; annual incidence was estimated to range from 1.2 to 76.4 per 100,000. Using narrow case-finding criteria, prevalence ranged from 0.8 to 64.7 per 100,000 persons; comparable figures for incidence were 0.4 to 27.1 per 100,000 persons. Extrapolating these rates to the overall United States' population, prevalence was estimated to be 42.7 per 100,000 (incidence, 16.3 per 100,000) using broad criteria; with narrow criteria, prevalence was estimated to be 14.0 per 100,000 (incidence, 6.8 per 100,000).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is probably more common in the United States than previously reported.

Measuring diagnoses: ICD code accuracy

OBJECTIVE

To examine potential sources of errors at each step of the described inpatient International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding process.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

The use of disease codes from the ICD has expanded from classifying morbidity and mortality information for statistical purposes to diverse sets of applications in research, health care policy, and health care finance. By describing a brief history of ICD coding, detailing the process for assigning codes, identifying where errors can be introduced into the process, and reviewing methods for examining code accuracy, we help code users more systematically evaluate code accuracy for their particular applications.

STUDY DESIGN/METHODS

We summarize the inpatient ICD diagnostic coding process from patient admission to diagnostic code assignment. We examine potential sources of errors at each step and offer code users a tool for systematically evaluating code accuracy.

PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

Main error sources along the "patient trajectory" include amount and quality of information at admission, communication among patients and providers, the clinician's knowledge and experience with the illness, and the clinician's attention to detail. Main error sources along the "paper trail" include variance in the electronic and written records, coder training and experience, facility quality-control efforts, and unintentional and intentional coder errors, such as misspecification, unbundling, and upcoding.

CONCLUSIONS

By clearly specifying the code assignment process and heightening their awareness of potential error sources, code users can better evaluate the applicability and limitations of codes for their particular situations. ICD codes can then be used in the most appropriate ways.

Clinical diagnosis of depression in primary care: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Depression is a major burden for the health-care system worldwide. Most care for depression is delivered by general practitioners (GPs). We assessed the rate of true positives and negatives, and false positives and negatives in primary care when GPs make routine diagnoses of depression.

METHODS

We undertook a meta-analysis of 118 studies that assessed the accuracy of unassisted diagnoses of depression by GPs. 41 of these studies were included because they had a robust outcome standard of a structured or semi-structured interview.

FINDINGS

50 371 patients were pooled across 41 studies and examined. GPs correctly identified depression in 47.3% (95% CI 41.7% to 53.0%) of cases and recorded depression in their notes in 33.6% (22.4% to 45.7%). 19 studies assessed both rule-in and rule-out accuracy; from these studies, the weighted sensitivity was 50.1% (41.3% to 59.0%) and specificity was 81.3% (74.5% to 87.3%). At a rate of 21.9%, the positive predictive value was 42.0% (39.6% to 44.3%) and the negative predictive value was 85.8% (84.8% to 86.7%). This finding suggests that for every 100 unselected cases seen in primary care, there are more false positives (n=15) than either missed (n=10) or identified cases (n=10). Accuracy was improved with prospective examination over an extended period (3-12 months) rather than relying on a one-off assessment or case-note records.

INTERPRETATION

GPs can rule out depression in most people who are not depressed; however, the modest prevalence of depression in primary care means that misidentifications outnumber missed cases. Diagnosis could be improved by re-assessment of individuals who might have depression.

FUNDING

None.

US Spending on Personal Health Care and Public Health, 1996-2013

Importance

US health care spending has continued to increase, and now accounts for more than 17% of the US economy. Despite the size and growth of this spending, little is known about how spending on each condition varies by age and across time.

Objective

To systematically and comprehensively estimate US spending on personal health care and public health, according to condition, age and sex group, and type of care.

Design and Setting

Government budgets, insurance claims, facility surveys, household surveys, and official US records from 1996 through 2013 were collected and combined. In total, 183 sources of data were used to estimate spending for 155 conditions (including cancer, which was disaggregated into 29 conditions). For each record, spending was extracted, along with the age and sex of the patient, and the type of care. Spending was adjusted to reflect the health condition treated, rather than the primary diagnosis.

Exposures

Encounter with US health care system.

Main Outcomes and Measures

National spending estimates stratified by condition, age and sex group, and type of care.

Results

From 1996 through 2013, $30.1 trillion of personal health care spending was disaggregated by 155 conditions, age and sex group, and type of care. Among these 155 conditions, diabetes had the highest health care spending in 2013, with an estimated $101.4 billion (uncertainty interval [UI], $96.7 billion-$106.5 billion) in spending, including 57.6% (UI, 53.8%-62.1%) spent on pharmaceuticals and 23.5% (UI, 21.7%-25.7%) spent on ambulatory care. Ischemic heart disease accounted for the second-highest amount of health care spending in 2013, with estimated spending of $88.1 billion (UI, $82.7 billion-$92.9 billion), and low back and neck pain accounted for the third-highest amount, with estimated health care spending of $87.6 billion (UI, $67.5 billion-$94.1 billion). The conditions with the highest spending levels varied by age, sex, type of care, and year. Personal health care spending increased for 143 of the 155 conditions from 1996 through 2013. Spending on low back and neck pain and on diabetes increased the most over the 18 years, by an estimated $57.2 billion (UI, $47.4 billion-$64.4 billion) and $64.4 billion (UI, $57.8 billion-$70.7 billion), respectively. From 1996 through 2013, spending on emergency care and retail pharmaceuticals increased at the fastest rates (6.4% [UI, 6.4%-6.4%] and 5.6% [UI, 5.6%-5.6%] annual growth rate, respectively), which were higher than annual rates for spending on inpatient care (2.8% [UI, 2.8%-2.8%] and nursing facility care (2.5% [UI, 2.5%-2.5%]).

Conclusions and Relevance

Modeled estimates of US spending on personal health care and public health showed substantial increases from 1996 through 2013; with spending on diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and low back and neck pain accounting for the highest amounts of spending by disease category. The rate of change in annual spending varied considerably among different conditions and types of care. This information may have implications for efforts to control US health care spending.

Prevalence and predictors of depression in populations of elderly: a review

OBJECTIVE

To offer an update on prevalence and predictors of old age depression in populations of elderly Caucasians.

METHOD

The databases MEDLINE and Psychinfo were searched and relevant literature from 1993 onwards was reviewed.

RESULTS

The prevalence of major depression ranges from 0.9% to 9.4% in private households, from 14% to 42% in institutional living, and from 1% to 16% among elderly living in private households or in institutions; and clinically relevant depressive symptom 'cases' in similar settings vary between 7.2% and 49%. The main predictors of depressive disorders and depressive symptom cases are: female gender, somatic illness, cognitive impairment, functional impairment, lack or loss of close social contacts, and a history of depression.

CONCLUSION

Depression is frequent in populations of elderly. Methodological differences between the studies hinder consistent conclusions about geographical and cross-cultural variations in prevalence and predictors of depression. Improved comparability will provide a basis for consistent conclusions.

The International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) staging system: an INRG Task Force report

PURPOSE

The International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) classification system was developed to establish a consensus approach for pretreatment risk stratification. Because the International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS) is a postsurgical staging system, a new clinical staging system was required for the INRG pretreatment risk classification system.

METHODS

To stage patients before any treatment, the INRG Task Force, consisting of neuroblastoma experts from Australia/New Zealand, China, Europe, Japan, and North America, developed a new INRG staging system (INRGSS) based on clinical criteria and image-defined risk factors (IDRFs). To investigate the impact of IDRFs on outcome, survival analyses were performed on 661 European patients with INSS stages 1, 2, or 3 disease for whom IDRFs were known.

RESULTS

In the INGRSS, locoregional tumors are staged L1 or L2 based on the absence or presence of one or more of 20 IDRFs, respectively. Metastatic tumors are defined as stage M, except for stage MS, in which metastases are confined to the skin, liver, and/or bone marrow in children younger than 18 months of age. Within the 661-patient cohort, IDRFs were present (ie, stage L2) in 21% of patients with stage 1, 45% of patients with stage 2, and 94% of patients with stage 3 disease. Patients with INRGSS stage L2 disease had significantly lower 5-year event-free survival than those with INRGSS stage L1 disease (78% +/- 4% v 90% +/- 3%; P = .0010).

CONCLUSION

Use of the new staging (INRGSS) and risk classification (INRG) of neuroblastoma will greatly facilitate the comparison of risk-based clinical trials conducted in different regions of the world.

Excess length of stay, charges, and mortality attributable to medical injuries during hospitalization

CONTEXT

Although medical injuries are recognized as a major hazard in the health care system, little is known about their impact.

OBJECTIVE

To assess excess length of stay, charges, and deaths attributable to medical injuries during hospitalization.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) were used to identify medical injuries in 7.45 million hospital discharge abstracts from 994 acute-care hospitals across 28 states in 2000 in the AHRQ Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample database.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Length of stay, charges, and mortality that were recorded in hospital discharge abstracts and were attributable to medical injuries according to 18 PSIs.

RESULTS

Excess length of stay attributable to medical injuries ranged from 0 days for injury to a neonate to 10.89 days for postoperative sepsis, excess charges ranged from 0 dollar for obstetric trauma (without vaginal instrumentation) to 57 727 dollars for postoperative sepsis, and excess mortality ranged from 0% for obstetric trauma to 21.96% for postoperative sepsis (P<.001). Following postoperative sepsis, the second most serious event was postoperative wound dehiscence, with 9.42 extra days in the hospital, 40 323 dollars in excess charges, and 9.63% attributable mortality. Infection due to medical care was associated with 9.58 extra days, 38 656 dollars in excess charges, and 4.31% attributable mortality.

CONCLUSION

Some injuries incurred during hospitalization pose a significant threat to patients and costs to society, but the impact of such injury is highly variable.

Positive predictive value of cardiovascular diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Registry: a validation study

OBJECTIVE

The majority of cardiovascular diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR) remain to be validated despite extensive use in epidemiological research. We therefore examined the positive predictive value (PPV) of cardiovascular diagnoses in the DNPR.

DESIGN

Population-based validation study.

SETTING

1 university hospital and 2 regional hospitals in the Central Denmark Region, 2010-2012.

PARTICIPANTS

For each cardiovascular diagnosis, up to 100 patients from participating hospitals were randomly sampled during the study period using the DNPR.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Using medical record review as the reference standard, we examined the PPV for cardiovascular diagnoses in the DNPR, coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision.

RESULTS

A total of 2153 medical records (97% of the total sample) were available for review. The PPVs ranged from 64% to 100%, with a mean PPV of 88%. The PPVs were ≥90% for first-time myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, stable angina pectoris, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, takotsubo cardiomyopathy, arterial hypertension, atrial fibrillation or flutter, cardiac arrest, mitral valve regurgitation or stenosis, aortic valve regurgitation or stenosis, pericarditis, hypercholesterolaemia, aortic dissection, aortic aneurysm/dilation and arterial claudication. The PPVs were between 80% and 90% for recurrent myocardial infarction, first-time unstable angina pectoris, pulmonary hypertension, bradycardia, ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation, endocarditis, cardiac tumours, first-time venous thromboembolism and between 70% and 80% for first-time and recurrent admission due to heart failure, first-time dilated cardiomyopathy, restrictive cardiomyopathy and recurrent venous thromboembolism. The PPV for first-time myocarditis was 64%. The PPVs were consistent within age, sex, calendar year and hospital categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The validity of cardiovascular diagnoses in the DNPR is overall high and sufficient for use in research since 2010.

Trends in the leading causes of death in the United States, 1970-2002

CONTEXT

The decrease in overall death rates in the United States may mask changes in death rates from specific conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To examine temporal trends in the age-standardized death rates and in the number of deaths from the 6 leading causes of death in the United States.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Analyses of vital statistics data on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 2002.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The age-standardized death rate and number of deaths (coded as underlying cause) from each of the 6 leading causes of death: heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, accidents (ie, related to transportation [motor vehicle, other land vehicles, and water, air, and space] and not related to transportation [falls, fire, and accidental posioning]), and diabetes mellitus.

RESULTS

The age-standardized death rate (per 100,000 per year) from all causes combined decreased from 1242 in 1970 to 845 in 2002. The largest percentage decreases were in death rates from stroke (63%), heart disease (52%), and accidents (41%). The largest absolute decreases in death rates were from heart disease (262 deaths per 100,000), stroke (96 deaths per 100,000), and accidents (26 deaths per 100,000).The death rate from all types of cancer combined increased between 1970 and 1990 and then decreased through 2002, yielding a net decline of 2.7%. In contrast, death rates doubled from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease over the entire time interval and increased by 45% for diabetes since 1987. Despite decreases in age-standardized death rates from 4 of the 6 leading causes of death, the absolute number of deaths from these conditions continues to increase, although these deaths occur at older ages.

CONCLUSIONS

The absolute number of deaths and age at death continue to increase in the United States. These temporal trends have major implications for health care and health care costs in an aging population.