Is an internal comparison better than using national data when estimating mortality in longitudinal studies?

BACKGROUND

Discrepancies between the results of different studies looking at mortality in similar disease cohorts led us to consider the impact of methodology upon outcome.

METHODS

Cohort studies were carried out using age, sex, practice, and calendar time matched control groups in the general practice research database. Data were used on all subjects with inflammatory bowel disease, coeliac disease, or Barrett's oesophagus. Mortality data for the population of England and Wales were obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics. The study compared hazard ratios (HR) for mortality using the matched controls to those found when an indirect standardisation to the mortality experience of England and Wales was carried out.

RESULTS

For all three conditions the mortality risk was slightly lower when the national population data were used compared with the internal comparison group (coeliac disease HR 1.33 v standardised mortality ratios (SMR) 1.25, Barrett's oesophagus HR 1.32 v SMR 1.32, inflammatory bowel disease HR 1.50 v SMR 1.34).

CONCLUSIONS

A bias was found towards underestimating mortality risk when cohort studies use national population death rates as a comparator. Estimates obtained when an internal comparison group has been used are probably more appropriate.

Mortality Risk in Irritable Bowel Syndrome: Results From a Nationwide Prospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Mortality concern is a frequent driver of care seeking in patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Data on mortality in IBS are scarce, and population-based studies have been limited in size. We examined mortality in IBS.

METHODS

A nationwide, matched, population-based cohort study was conducted in Sweden. We identified 45,524 patients undergoing a colorectal biopsy at any of Sweden's 28 pathology departments and with a diagnosis of IBS from 2002 to 2016 according to the National Patient Register, a nationwide registry of inpatient and outpatient specialty care. We compared the mortality risk between these individuals with IBS and age- and sex-matched reference individuals (n = 217,316) from the general population and siblings (n = 53,228). In separate analyses, we examined the role of mucosal appearance for mortality in IBS. Finally, we examined mortality in 41,427 patients with IBS not undergoing a colorectal biopsy. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for death.

RESULTS

During follow-up, there were 3,290 deaths in individuals with IBS (9.4/1,000 person-years) compared with 13,255 deaths in reference individuals (7.9/1,000 person-years), resulting in an HR of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05-1.14). After adjustment for confounders, IBS was not linked to mortality (HR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.92-1.00). The risk estimates were neutral when patients with IBS were compared with their siblings. The underlying mucosal appearance on biopsy had only a marginal impact on mortality, and patients with IBS not undergoing a colorectal biopsy were at no increased risk of death (HR = 1.02; 95% CI = 0.99-1.06).

DISCUSSION

IBS does not seem to confer an increased risk of death.

Ethnic variations in five lower gastrointestinal diseases: Scottish health and ethnicity linkage study

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to augment the limited evidence mainly from local, clinical studies of ethnic differences in gastrointestinal disorders. Our question was: are there ethnic variations in hospitalisation/death for lower gastrointestinal disorders in Scotland?

SETTING

Scotland.

POPULATION

This retrospective-cohort linked 4.65 (of 4.9) million people in the 2001 census of Scotland (providing data on ethnicity, country of birth and indicators of socioeconomic deprivation) to 9 years of National Health Service hospitalisation and death records.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

For appendicitis, we studied all ages; for irritable bowel syndrome, ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease and diverticular disease, we included those ≥20 years. Using Poisson regression (robust variance) we calculated, by ethnic group and sex, first-hospitalisation/death age-adjusted rates per 100,000 person-years, and relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs multiplied by 100, so the White Scottish reference population had an RR=100.

RESULTS

There were ethnic variations; for example, for irritable bowel syndrome, RRs (95% CIs) were comparatively high in Other White British women (128.4 (111.0 to 148.6)), and low in Pakistani women (75.1 (60.6 to 93.1)). For appendicitis, RRs were high in men in Other White British (145.2 (127.8 to 164.9)), and low in most non-White groups, for example, Pakistanis (73.8 (56.9 to 95.6)). For ulcerative colitis, RRs were high in Indian (169.8 (109.7 to 262.7)) and Pakistani (160.8 (104.2 to 248.2)) men. For Crohn's disease, the RR was high in Pakistani men (209.2 (149.6 to 292.6)). For diverticular disease, RRs were high in Irish men (176.0 (156.9 to 197.5)), and any Mixed background women (144.6 (107.4 to 194.8)), and low in most non-White groups, for example, Chinese men (47.1 (31.0 to 71.6) and women (46.0 (30.4 to 69.8)).

CONCLUSIONS

Appendicitis and diverticular disease were comparatively low in most non-White groups, while ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease were mostly higher in South Asians. Describing and understanding such patterns may help clinical practice and research internationally.

The Time-Dependent Association Between Irritable Bowel Syndrome and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study Within the UK Biobank

INTRODUCTION

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is one of the most common functional gastrointestinal disorders, but few studies have evaluated mortality risks among individuals with IBS. We explored the association between IBS and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the UK Biobank.

METHODS

We included 502,369 participants from the UK Biobank with mortality data through 2022. IBS was defined using baseline self-report and linkage to primary care or hospital admission data. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models within partitioned follow-up time categories (0-5, >5-10, and >10 years).

RESULTS

A total of 25,697 participants (5.1%) had a history of IBS at baseline. After a median follow-up of 13.7 years, a total of 44,499 deaths occurred. Having an IBS diagnosis was strongly associated with lower risks of all-cause (HR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.62-0.78) and all-cancer (HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.60-0.79) mortality in the first 5 years of follow-up. These associations were attenuated over follow-up, but even after 10 years of follow-up, associations remained inverse (all-cause: HR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.84-0.96; all-cancer: HR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78-0.97) after full adjustment. Individuals with IBS had decreased risk of mortality from breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers in some of the follow-up time categories.

DISCUSSION

We found that earlier during follow-up, having diagnosed IBS was associated with lower mortality risk, and the association attenuated over time. Additional studies to understand whether specific factors, such as lifestyle and healthcare access, explain the inverse association between IBS and mortality are needed.