Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy

IMPORTANCE

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) emerged in China and has spread globally, creating a pandemic. Information about the clinical characteristics of infected patients who require intensive care is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU) in the Lombardy region of Italy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective case series of 1591 consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 referred for ICU admission to the coordinator center (Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy) of the COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network and treated at one of the ICUs of the 72 hospitals in this network between February 20 and March 18, 2020. Date of final follow-up was March 25, 2020.

EXPOSURES

SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay of nasal and pharyngeal swabs.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Demographic and clinical data were collected, including data on clinical management, respiratory failure, and patient mortality. Data were recorded by the coordinator center on an electronic worksheet during telephone calls by the staff of the COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network.

RESULTS

Of the 1591 patients included in the study, the median (IQR) age was 63 (56-70) years and 1304 (82%) were male. Of the 1043 patients with available data, 709 (68%) had at least 1 comorbidity and 509 (49%) had hypertension. Among 1300 patients with available respiratory support data, 1287 (99% [95% CI, 98%-99%]) needed respiratory support, including 1150 (88% [95% CI, 87%-90%]) who received mechanical ventilation and 137 (11% [95% CI, 9%-12%]) who received noninvasive ventilation. The median positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) was 14 (IQR, 12-16) cm H2O, and Fio2 was greater than 50% in 89% of patients. The median Pao2/Fio2 was 160 (IQR, 114-220). The median PEEP level was not different between younger patients (n = 503 aged ≤63 years) and older patients (n = 514 aged ≥64 years) (14 [IQR, 12-15] vs 14 [IQR, 12-16] cm H2O, respectively; median difference, 0 [95% CI, 0-0]; P = .94). Median Fio2 was lower in younger patients: 60% (IQR, 50%-80%) vs 70% (IQR, 50%-80%) (median difference, -10% [95% CI, -14% to 6%]; P = .006), and median Pao2/Fio2 was higher in younger patients: 163.5 (IQR, 120-230) vs 156 (IQR, 110-205) (median difference, 7 [95% CI, -8 to 22]; P = .02). Patients with hypertension (n = 509) were older than those without hypertension (n = 526) (median [IQR] age, 66 years [60-72] vs 62 years [54-68]; P < .001) and had lower Pao2/Fio2 (median [IQR], 146 [105-214] vs 173 [120-222]; median difference, -27 [95% CI, -42 to -12]; P = .005). Among the 1581 patients with ICU disposition data available as of March 25, 2020, 920 patients (58% [95% CI, 56%-61%]) were still in the ICU, 256 (16% [95% CI, 14%-18%]) were discharged from the ICU, and 405 (26% [95% CI, 23%-28%]) had died in the ICU. Older patients (n = 786; age ≥64 years) had higher mortality than younger patients (n = 795; age ≤63 years) (36% vs 15%; difference, 21% [95% CI, 17%-26%]; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this case series of critically ill patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs in Lombardy, Italy, the majority were older men, a large proportion required mechanical ventilation and high levels of PEEP, and ICU mortality was 26%.

Attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and the European Economic Area in 2015: a population-level modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are threatening modern health care. However, estimating their incidence, complications, and attributable mortality is challenging. We aimed to estimate the burden of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health concern in countries of the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) in 2015, measured in number of cases, attributable deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

METHODS

We estimated the incidence of infections with 16 antibiotic resistance-bacterium combinations from European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) 2015 data that was country-corrected for population coverage. We multiplied the number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) by a conversion factor derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control point prevalence survey of health-care-associated infections in European acute care hospitals in 2011-12 to estimate the number of non-BSIs. We developed disease outcome models for five types of infection on the basis of systematic reviews of the literature.

FINDINGS

From EARS-Net data collected between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we estimated 671 689 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 583 148-763 966) infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, of which 63·5% (426 277 of 671 689) were associated with health care. These infections accounted for an estimated 33 110 (28 480-38 430) attributable deaths and 874 541 (768 837-989 068) DALYs. The burden for the EU and EEA was highest in infants (aged <1 year) and people aged 65 years or older, had increased since 2007, and was highest in Italy and Greece.

INTERPRETATION

Our results present the health burden of five types of infection with antibiotic-resistant bacteria expressed, for the first time, in DALYs. The estimated burden of infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and EEA is substantial compared with that of other infectious diseases, and has increased since 2007. Our burden estimates provide useful information for public health decision-makers prioritising interventions for infectious diseases.

FUNDING

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Population-based survey of urinary incontinence, overactive bladder, and other lower urinary tract symptoms in five countries: results of the EPIC study

OBJECTIVE

Estimate the prevalence of urinary incontinence (UI), overactive bladder (OAB), and other lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) among men and women in five countries using the 2002 International Continence Society (ICS) definitions.

METHODS

This population-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted between April and December 2005 in Canada, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom using computer-assisted telephone interviews. A random sample of men and women aged >/= 18 yr residing in the five countries and who were representative of the general populations in these countries was selected. Using 2002 ICS definitions, the prevalence estimates of storage, voiding, and postmicturition LUTS were calculated. Data were stratified by country, age cohort, and gender.

RESULTS

A total of 19,165 individuals agreed to participate; 64.3% reported at least one LUTS. Nocturia was the most prevalent LUTS (men, 48.6%; women, 54.5%). The prevalence of storage LUTS (men, 51.3%; women, 59.2%) was greater than that for voiding (men, 25.7%; women, 19.5%) and postmicturition (men, 16.9%; women, 14.2%) symptoms combined. The overall prevalence of OAB was 11.8%; rates were similar in men and women and increased with age. OAB was more prevalent than all types of UI combined (9.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

The EPIC study is the largest population-based survey to assess prevalence rates of OAB, UI, and other LUTS in five countries. To date, this is the first study to evaluate these symptoms simultaneously using the 2002 ICS definitions. The results indicate that these symptoms are highly prevalent in the countries surveyed.

COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system's capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3-4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.

Left ventricular mass and body size in normotensive children and adults: assessment of allometric relations and impact of overweight

OBJECTIVES

This study was designed to determine the most appropriate method to normalize left ventricular mass for body size.

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular mass has been normalized for body weight, surface area or height in experimental and clinical studies, but it is uncertain which of these approaches is most appropriate.

METHODS

Three normotensive population samples--in New York City (127 adults), Naples, Italy (114 adults) and Cincinnati, Ohio (444 infants to young adults)--were studied by echocardiography. Relations of left ventricular mass to body size were similar in all normal weight groups, as assessed by linear and nonlinear regression analysis, and results were pooled (n = 611).

RESULTS

Left ventricular mass was related to body weight to the first power (r = 0.88), to body surface area to the 1.5 power (r = 0.88) and to height to the 2.7 power (r = 0.84), consistent with expected allometric (growth) relations between variables with linear (height), second-power (body surface area) and volumetric (left ventricular mass and body weight) dimensions. Strong residual relations of left ventricular mass/body surface area to body surface area (r = 0.54) and of ventricular mass/height to height (r = 0.72) were markedly reduced by normalization of ventricular mass for height2.7 and body surface area1.5. The variability among subjects of ventricular mass was also reduced (p < 0.01 to p < 0.002) by normalization for body weight, body surface area, body surface area1.5 or height2.7 but not for height. In 20% of adults who were overweight, ventricular mass was 14% higher (p < 0.001) than ideal mass predicted from observed height and ideal weight; this increase was identified as 14% by left ventricular mass/height2.7 and 9% by ventricular mass/height, whereas indexation for body surface area, body surface area1.5 and body weight erroneously identified left ventricular mass as reduced in overweight adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Normalizations of left ventricular mass for height or body surface area introduce artifactual relations of indexed ventricular mass to body size and errors in estimating the impact of overweight. These problems are avoided and variability among normal subjects is reduced by using left ventricular mass/height2.7. Simple nomograms of the normal relation between height and left ventricular mass allow detection of ventricular hypertrophy in children and adults.

Worldwide burden of HIV in transgender women: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous systematic reviews have identified a high prevalence of HIV infection in transgender women in the USA and in those who sell sex (compared with both female and male sex workers). However, little is known about the burden of HIV infection in transgender women worldwide. We aimed to better assess the relative HIV burden in all transgender women worldwide.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that assessed HIV infection burdens in transgender women that were published between Jan 1, 2000, and Nov 30, 2011. Meta-analysis was completed with the Mantel-Haenszel method, and random-effects modelling was used to compare HIV burdens in transgender women with that in adults in the countries for which data were available.

FINDINGS

Data were only available for countries with male-predominant HIV epidemics, which included the USA, six Asia-Pacific countries, five in Latin America, and three in Europe. The pooled HIV prevalence was 19·1% (95% CI 17·4-20·7) in 11 066 transgender women worldwide. In 7197 transgender women sampled in ten low-income and middle-income countries, HIV prevalence was 17·7% (95% CI 15·6-19·8). In 3869 transgender women sampled in five high-income countries, HIV prevalence was 21·6% (95% CI 18·8-24·3). The odds ratio for being infected with HIV in transgender women compared with all adults of reproductive age across the 15 countries was 48·8 (95% CI 21·2-76·3) and did not differ for those in low-income and middle-income countries compared with those in high-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that transgender women are a very high burden population for HIV and are in urgent need of prevention, treatment, and care services. The meta-analysis showed remarkable consistency and severity of the HIV disease burden among transgender women.

FUNDING

Center for AIDS Research at Johns Hopkins and the Center for Public Health and Human Rights at the JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Cross-national epidemiology of major depression and bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the rates and patterns of major depression and bipolar disorder based on cross-national epidemiologic surveys.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Population-based epidemiologic studies using similar methods from 10 countries: the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, France, West Germany, Italy, Lebanon, Taiwan, Korea, and New Zealand.

PARTICIPANTS

Approximately 38000 community subjects.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates, demographics, and age at onset of major depression and bipolar disorder. Symptom profiles, comorbidity, and marital status with major depression.

RESULTS

The lifetime rates for major depression vary widely across countries, ranging from 1.5 cases per 100 adults in the sample in Taiwan to 19.0 cases per 100 adults in Beirut. The annual rates ranged from 0.8 cases per 100 adults in Taiwan to 5.8 cases per 100 adults in New Zealand. The mean age at onset shows less variation (range, 24.8-34.8 years). In every country, the rates of major depression were higher for women than men. By contrast, the lifetime rates of bipolar disorder are more consistent across countries (0.3/100 in Taiwan to 1.5/100 in New Zealand); the sex ratios are nearly equal; and the age at first onset is earlier (average, 6 years) than the onset of major depression. Insomnia and loss of energy occurred in most persons with major depression at each site. Persons with major depression were also at increased risk for comorbidity with substance abuse and anxiety disorders at all sites. Persons who were separated or divorced had significantly higher rates of major depression than married persons in most of the countries, and the risk was somewhat greater for divorced or separated men than women in most countries.

CONCLUSIONS

There are striking similarities across countries in patterns of major depression and of bipolar disorder. The differences in rates for major depression across countries suggest that cultural differences or different risk factors affect the expression of the disorder.

Anxiety and depression in COVID-19 survivors: Role of inflammatory and clinical predictors

Infection-triggered perturbation of the immune system could induce psychopathology, and psychiatric sequelae were observed after previous coronavirus outbreaks. The spreading of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could be associated with psychiatric implications. We investigated the psychopathological impact of COVID-19 in survivors, also considering the effect of clinical and inflammatory predictors. We screened for psychiatric symptoms 402 adults surviving COVID-19 (265 male, mean age 58), at one month follow-up after hospital treatment. A clinical interview and a battery of self-report questionnaires were used to investigate post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, insomnia, and obsessive-compulsive (OC) symptomatology. We collected sociodemographic information, clinical data, baseline inflammatory markers and follow-up oxygen saturation levels. A significant proportion of patients self-rated in the psychopathological range: 28% for PTSD, 31% for depression, 42% for anxiety, 20% for OC symptoms, and 40% for insomnia. Overall, 56% scored in the pathological range in at least one clinical dimension. Despite significantly lower levels of baseline inflammatory markers, females suffered more for both anxiety and depression. Patients with a positive previous psychiatric diagnosis showed increased scores on most psychopathological measures, with similar baseline inflammation. Baseline systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), which reflects the immune response and systemic inflammation based on peripheral lymphocyte, neutrophil, and platelet counts, positively associated with scores of depression and anxiety at follow-up. PTSD, major depression, and anxiety, are all high-burden non-communicable conditions associated with years of life lived with disability. Considering the alarming impact of COVID-19 infection on mental health, the current insights on inflammation in psychiatry, and the present observation of worse inflammation leading to worse depression, we recommend to assess psychopathology of COVID-19 survivors and to deepen research on inflammatory biomarkers, in order to diagnose and treat emergent psychiatric conditions.

Trends in sudden cardiovascular death in young competitive athletes after implementation of a preparticipation screening program

CONTEXT

A nationwide systematic preparticipation athletic screening was introduced in Italy in 1982. The impact of such a program on prevention of sudden cardiovascular death in the athlete remains to be determined.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze trends in incidence rates and cardiovascular causes of sudden death in young competitive athletes in relation to preparticipation screening.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A population-based study of trends in sudden cardiovascular death in athletic and nonathletic populations aged 12 to 35 years in the Veneto region of Italy between 1979 and 2004. A parallel study examined trends in cardiovascular causes of disqualification from competitive sports in 42,386 athletes undergoing preparticipation screening at the Center for Sports Medicine in Padua (22,312 in the early screening period [1982-1992] and 20,074 in the late screening period [1993-2004]).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence trends of total cardiovascular and cause-specific sudden death in screened athletes and unscreened nonathletes of the same age range over a 26-year period.

RESULTS

During the study period, 55 sudden cardiovascular deaths occurred in screened athletes (1.9 deaths/100,000 person-years) and 265 sudden deaths in unscreened nonathletes (0.79 deaths/100,000 person-years). The annual incidence of sudden cardiovascular death in athletes decreased by 89% (from 3.6/100,000 person-years in 1979-1980 to 0.4/100,000 person-years in 2003-2004; P for trend < .001), whereas the incidence of sudden death among the unscreened nonathletic population did not change significantly. The mortality decline started after mandatory screening was implemented and persisted to the late screening period. Compared with the prescreening period (1979-1981), the relative risk of sudden cardiovascular death in athletes was 0.56 in the early screening period (95% CI, 0.29-1.15; P = .04) and 0.21 in the late screening period (95% CI, 0.09-0.48; P = .001). Most of the reduced mortality was due to fewer cases of sudden death from cardiomyopathies (from 1.50/100,000 person-years in the prescreening period to 0.15/100,000 person-years in the late screening period; P for trend = .002). During the study period, 879 athletes (2.0%) were disqualified from competition due to cardiovascular causes at the Center for Sports Medicine: 455 (2.0%) in the early screening period and 424 (2.1%) in the late screening period. The proportion of athletes who were disqualified for cardiomyopathies increased from 20 (4.4%) of 455 in the early screening period to 40 (9.4%) of 424 in the late screening period (P = .005).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of sudden cardiovascular death in young competitive athletes has substantially declined in the Veneto region of Italy since the introduction of a nationwide systematic screening. Mortality reduction was predominantly due to a lower incidence of sudden death from cardiomyopathies that paralleled the increasing identification of athletes with cardiomyopathies at preparticipation screening.

Prevalence of and risk factors for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: the Dionysos nutrition and liver study

The prevalence of and the risk factors for fatty liver have not undergone a formal evaluation in a representative sample of the general population. We therefore performed a cross-sectional study in the town of Campogalliano (Modena, Italy), within the context of the Dionysos Project. Of 5,780 eligible persons aged 18 to 75 years, 3,345 (58%) agreed to participate in the study. Subjects with suspected liver disease (SLD), defined on the basis of elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT) activity, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), or hepatitis C virus (HCV)-RNA positivity, were matched with randomly selected subjects of the same age and sex without SLD. A total of 311 subjects with and 287 without SLD underwent a detailed clinical, laboratory, and anthropometrical evaluation. Fatty liver was diagnosed by ultrasonography, and alcohol intake was assessed by using a 7-day diary. Multinomial logistic regression was used to detect risk factors for normal liver versus nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and for alcoholic fatty liver (AFLD) versus NAFLD. The prevalence of NAFLD was similar in subjects with and without SLD (25 vs. 20%, P = .203). At multivariable analysis, normal liver was more likely than NAFLD in older subjects and less likely in the presence of obesity, hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and systolic hypertension; AFLD was more likely than NAFLD in older subjects, males, and in the presence of elevated GGT and hypertriglyceridemia, and less likely in the presence of obesity and hyperglycemia. In conclusion, NAFLD is highly prevalent in the general population, is not associated with SLD, but is associated with many features of the metabolic syndrome.

The Italian SF-36 Health Survey: translation, validation and norming

This article reports on the development and validation of the Italian SF-36 Health Survey using data from seven studies in which an Italian version of the SF-36 was administered to more than 7000 subjects between 1991 and 1995. Empirical findings from a wide array of studies and diseases indicate that the performance of the questionnaire improved as the Italian translation was revised and that it met the standards suggested by the literature in terms of feasibility, psychometric tests, and interpretability. This generally satisfactory picture strengthens the idea that the Italian SF-36 is as valid and reliable as the original instrument and applicable and valid across age, gender, and disease. Empirical evidence from a cross-sectional survey carried out to norm the final version in a representative sample of 2031 individuals confirms the questionnaire's characteristics in terms of hypothesized constructs and psychometric behavior and gives a better picture of its external validity (i.e., robustness and generalizability) when administered in settings that are very close to real world.

Prevalence of and risk factors for hepatic steatosis in Northern Italy

BACKGROUND

Although hepatic steatosis is seen with increasing frequency in clinical practice, its prevalence and risk factors are unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prevalence of and risk factors for hepatic steatosis, such as alcohol consumption and obesity.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, observational study.

SETTING

Participants in the Dionysos Study.

PATIENTS

257 participants assigned to one of four categories (67 controls, 66 obese persons, 69 heavy drinkers, and 55 obese heavy drinkers).

MEASUREMENTS

Ethanol intake, assessed by a validated questionnaire and expressed as daily (g/d) and lifetime (kg) consumption, and body mass, expressed as body mass index. Biochemical tests of liver and metabolic function and hepatic ultrasonography were done.

RESULTS

The prevalence of steatosis was increased in heavy drinkers (46.4% [95% CI, 34% to 59%]) and obese persons (75.8% [CI, 63% to 85%]) compared with controls (16.4% [CI, 8% to 25%]). Steatosis was found in 94.5% (CI, 85% to 99%) of obese heavy drinkers. Compared with controls, the risk for steatosis was higher by 2.8-fold (CI, 1.4-fold to 7.1-fold) in heavy drinkers, 4.6-fold (CI, 2.5-fold to 11.0-fold) in obese persons, and 5.8-fold (CI, 3.2-fold to 12.3-fold) in persons who were obese and drank heavily. In heavy drinkers, obesity increased the risk for steatosis by twofold (CI, 1.5-fold to 3.0-fold) (P < 0.001), but heavy drinking was associated with only a 1.3-fold (CI, 1.02-fold to 1.6-fold) increase in risk in obese persons (P = 0.0053). Elevated alanine aminotransferase and triglyceride levels are the most reliable markers of steatosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Steatosis is frequently encountered in healthy persons and is almost always present in obese persons who drink more than 60 g of alcohol per day. Steatosis is more strongly associated with obesity than with heavy drinking, suggesting a greater role of overweight than alcohol consumption in accumulation of fat in the liver.

Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers and the Risk of Covid-19

BACKGROUND

A potential association between the use of angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) and angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has not been well studied.

METHODS

We carried out a population-based case-control study in the Lombardy region of Italy. A total of 6272 case patients in whom infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was confirmed between February 21 and March 11, 2020, were matched to 30,759 beneficiaries of the Regional Health Service (controls) according to sex, age, and municipality of residence. Information about the use of selected drugs and patients' clinical profiles was obtained from regional databases of health care use. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between drugs and infection, with adjustment for confounders, were estimated by means of logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among both case patients and controls, the mean (±SD) age was 68±13 years, and 37% were women. The use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs was more common among case patients than among controls, as was the use of other antihypertensive and non-antihypertensive drugs, and case patients had a worse clinical profile. Use of ARBs or ACE inhibitors did not show any association with Covid-19 among case patients overall (adjusted odds ratio, 0.95 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.86 to 1.05] for ARBs and 0.96 [95% CI, 0.87 to 1.07] for ACE inhibitors) or among patients who had a severe or fatal course of the disease (adjusted odds ratio, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.63 to 1.10] for ARBs and 0.91 [95% CI, 0.69 to 1.21] for ACE inhibitors), and no association between these variables was found according to sex.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, population-based study, the use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs was more frequent among patients with Covid-19 than among controls because of their higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. However, there was no evidence that ACE inhibitors or ARBs affected the risk of COVID-19.

Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy

In Italy, 128,948 confirmed cases and 15,887 deaths of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were registered as of 5 April 2020. Ending the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic requires implementation of multiple population-wide strategies, including social distancing, testing and contact tracing. We propose a new model that predicts the course of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy. The model considers eight stages of infection: susceptible (S), infected (I), diagnosed (D), ailing (A), recognized (R), threatened (T), healed (H) and extinct (E), collectively termed SIDARTHE. Our SIDARTHE model discriminates between infected individuals depending on whether they have been diagnosed and on the severity of their symptoms. The distinction between diagnosed and non-diagnosed individuals is important because the former are typically isolated and hence less likely to spread the infection. This delineation also helps to explain misperceptions of the case fatality rate and of the epidemic spread. We compare simulation results with real data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, and we model possible scenarios of implementation of countermeasures. Our results demonstrate that restrictive social-distancing measures will need to be combined with widespread testing and contact tracing to end the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Does sports activity enhance the risk of sudden death in adolescents and young adults?

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess the risk of sudden death (SD) in both male and female athletes age 12 to 35 years.

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the risk of SD in adolescents and young adults engaged in sports.

METHODS

We did a 21-year prospective cohort study of all young people of the Veneto Region of Italy. From 1979 to 1999, the total population of adolescents and young adults averaged 1,386,600 (692,100 males and 694,500 females), of which 112,790 (90,690 males and 22,100 females) were competitive athletes. An analysis by gender of risk of SD and underlying pathologic substrates was performed in the athletic and non-athletic populations.

RESULTS

There were 300 cases of SD, producing an overall cohort incidence rate of 1 in 100,000 persons per year. Fifty-five SDs occurred among athletes (2.3 in 100,000 per year) and 245 among non-athletes (0.9 in 100,000 per year), with an estimated relative risk (RR) of 2.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8 to 3.4; p < 0.0001). The RR of SD among athletes versus non-athletes was 1.95 (CI 1.3 to 2.6; p = 0.0001) for males and 2.00 (CI 0.6 to 4.9; p = 0.15) for females. The higher risk of SD in athletes was strongly related to underlying cardiovascular diseases such as congenital coronary artery anomaly (RR 79, CI 10 to 3,564; p < 0.0001), arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (RR 5.4, CI 2.5 to 11.2; p < 0.0001), and premature coronary artery disease (RR 2.6, CI 1.2 to 5.1; p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Sports activity in adolescents and young adults was associated with an increased risk of SD, both in males and females. Sports, per se, was not a cause of the enhanced mortality, but it triggered SD in those athletes who were affected by cardiovascular conditions predisposing to life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias during physical exercise.

Prognostic value of ambulatory and home blood pressures compared with office blood pressure in the general population: follow-up results from the Pressioni Arteriose Monitorate e Loro Associazioni (PAMELA) study

BACKGROUND

Studies in hypertensive patients suggest that ambulatory blood pressure (BP) is prognostically superior to office BP. Much less information is available in the general population, however. Obtaining this information was the purpose of the Pressioni Arteriose Monitorate e Loro Associazioni (PAMELA) study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Office, home, and 24-hour ambulatory BP values were obtained in 2051 subjects between 25 and 74 years of age who were representative of the general population of Monza (Milan, Italy). Subjects were followed up for an average of 131 months, during which time cardiovascular and noncardiovascular fatal events were recorded (n=186). Office, home, and ambulatory BP values showed a significant exponential direct relationship with risk of cardiovascular or all-cause death. The goodness of fit of the relationship was greater for systolic than for diastolic BP and for night than for day BP, but its overall value was not better for home or ambulatory than for office BP. The slope of the relationship, however, was progressively greater from office to home and ambulatory BP. Home and night BP modestly improved the goodness of fit of the risk model when added to office BP.

CONCLUSIONS

In the PAMELA population, risk of death increased more with a given increase in home or ambulatory than in office BP. The overall ability to predict death, however, was not greater for home and ambulatory than for office BP, although it was somewhat increased by the combination of office and outside-of-office values. Systolic BP was almost invariably superior to diastolic BP, and night BP was superior to day BP.

A meta-analysis of alcohol consumption and the risk of 15 diseases

BACKGROUND

To compare the strength of evidence provided by the epidemiological literature on the association between alcohol consumption and the risk of 14 major alcohol-related neoplasms and non-neoplastic diseases, plus injuries.

METHODS

A search of the epidemiological literature from 1966 to 1998 was performed by several bibliographic databases. Meta-regression models were fitted considering fixed and random effect models and linear and nonlinear effects of alcohol intake. The effects of some characteristics of the studies, including an index of their quality, were considered.

RESULTS

Of the 561 initially reviewed studies, 156 were selected for meta-analysis because of their a priori defined higher quality, including a total of 116,702 subjects. Strong trends in risk were observed for cancers of the oral cavity, esophagus and larynx, hypertension, liver cirrhosis, chronic pancreatitis, and injuries and violence. Less strong direct relations were observed for cancers of the colon, rectum, liver, and breast. For all these conditions, significant increased risks were also found for ethanol intake of 25 g per day. Threshold values were observed for ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. For coronary heart disease, a J-shaped relation was observed with a minimum relative risk of 0.80 at 20 g/day, a significant protective effect up to 72 g/day, and a significant increased risk at 89 g/day. No clear relation was observed for gastroduodenal ulcer.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis shows no evidence of a threshold effect for both neoplasms and several non-neoplastic diseases. J-shaped relations were observed only for coronary heart disease.

Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is a major yet largely preventable and underappreciated cause of global health loss. Variations in cirrhosis mortality at the country level reflect differences in prevalence of risk factors such as alcohol use and hepatitis B and C infection. We estimated annual age-specific mortality from liver cirrhosis in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010.

METHODS

We systematically collected vital registration and verbal autopsy data on liver cirrhosis mortality for the period 1980 to 2010. We corrected for misclassification of deaths, which included deaths attributed to improbable or nonfatal causes. We used ensemble models to estimate liver cirrhosis mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the optimal model.

RESULTS

Global liver cirrhosis deaths increased from around 676,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 452,863 to 1,004,530) in 1980 to over 1 million (1,029,042; 670,216 to 1,554,530) in 2010 (about 2% of the global total). Over the same period, the age-standardized cirrhosis mortality rate decreased by 22%. This was largely driven by decreasing cirrhosis mortality rates in China, the US and countries in Western Europe. In 2010, Egypt, followed by Moldova, had the highest age-standardized cirrhosis mortality rates, 72.7 and 71.2 deaths per 100,000, respectively, while Iceland had the lowest. In Egypt, almost one-fifth (18.1%) of all deaths in males 45- to 54-years old were due to liver cirrhosis. Liver cirrhosis mortality in Mexico is the highest in Latin America. In France and Italy, liver cirrhosis mortality fell by 50% to 60%; conversely, in the United Kingdom, mortality increased by about one-third. Mortality from liver cirrhosis was also comparatively high in Central Asia countries, particularly Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, notably Gabon.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver cirrhosis is a significant cause of global health burden, with more than one million deaths in 2010. Our study identifies areas with high and/or rapidly increasing mortality where preventive measures to control and reduce liver cirrhosis risk factors should be urgently strengthened.

Effects of COVID-19 Lockdown on Lifestyle Behaviors in Children with Obesity Living in Verona, Italy: A Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that youths with obesity, when removed from structured school activities and confined to their homes during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, will display unfavorable trends in lifestyle behaviors.

METHODS

The sample included 41 children and adolescents with obesity participating in a longitudinal observational study located in Verona, Italy. Lifestyle information including diet, activity, and sleep behaviors was collected at baseline and 3 weeks into the national lockdown during which home confinement was mandatory. Changes in outcomes over the two study time points were evaluated for significance using paired t tests.

RESULTS

There were no changes in reported vegetable intake; fruit intake increased (P = 0.055) during the lockdown. By contrast, potato chip, red meat, and sugary drink intakes increased significantly during the lockdown (P value range, 0.005 to < 0.001). Time spent in sports activities decreased by 2.30 (SD 4.60) h/wk (P = 0.003), and sleep time increased by 0.65 (SD 1.29) h/d (P = 0.003). Screen time increased by 4.85 (SD 2.40) h/d (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Recognizing these adverse collateral effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic lockdown is critical in avoiding depreciation of weight control efforts among youths afflicted with excess adiposity. Depending on duration, these untoward lockdown effects may have a lasting impact on a child's or adolescent's adult adiposity level.

Effects of vinorelbine on quality of life and survival of elderly patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. The Elderly Lung Cancer Vinorelbine Italian Study Group

BACKGROUND

Vinorelbine, a semisynthetic vinca alkaloid, represents a well-tolerated treatment for elderly patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We explored the quality of life (QoL) of such patients in a multicenter randomized trial that compared vinorelbine treatment with supportive care alone.

METHODS

Eligible patients were 70 years of age or older, had stage IV or IIIB NSCLC that was ineligible for radiotherapy, and had a performance status of 0-2 (a status of fully active to a status of capable of all self-care but unable to work). Vinorelbine was given intravenously on days 1 and 8 of a 21-day treatment cycle, for a total of six cycles. QoL was evaluated with European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer questionnaires QLQ-C30 and QLQ-LC13, and the QoL data were analyzed by fitting a linear mixed model for each QoL scale. Survival curves were plotted and were compared with the Mantel-Haenszel test. Relative hazards of death and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by the Cox model.

RESULTS

Investigators, blinded to the results, stopped the trial early because of a low enrollment rate. (From April 1996 to November 1997, 191 of the 350 targeted patients were randomly assigned.) Data from 161 patients have been analyzed. Vinorelbine-treated patients scored better than control patients on QoL functioning scales, and they reported fewer lung cancer-related symptoms but reported worse toxicity-related symptoms. There was a statistically significant (two-sided P = .03) survival advantage for patients receiving vinorelbine; median survival increased from 21 to 28 weeks in the vinorelbine-treated group. The relative hazard of death for vinorelbine-treated patients was 0.65 (95% CI = 0.45-0.93).

CONCLUSION

Vinorelbine improves survival of elderly patients with advanced NSCLC and possibly improves overall QoL.

Incidence of inflammatory bowel disease across Europe: is there a difference between north and south? Results of the European Collaborative Study on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (EC-IBD)

BACKGROUND

It has been suggested that the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), which includes ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD), is three or more times higher in northern than in southern Europe. The aim of this EC funded study was to investigate this apparent variation by ascertaining the incidence of IBD across Europe.

METHODS

For the period 1 October 1991 to 30 September 1993 all new patients diagnosed with IBD were prospectively identified in 20 European centres according to a standard protocol for case ascertainment and definition.

FINDINGS

Altogether 2201 patients aged 15 years or more were identified, of whom 1379 were diagnosed as UC (including proctitis), 706 as CD, and 116 as indeterminate. The overall incidence per 100,000 at ages 15-64 years (standardised for age and sex) of UC was 10.4 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 7.6 to 13.1) and that of CD was 5.6 (95% CI 2.8 to 8.3). Rates of UC in northern centres were 40% higher than those in the south (rate ratio (RR) = 1.4 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.5)) and for CD they were 80% higher (RR = 1.8 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.1)). For UC the highest reported incidence was in Iceland (24.5, 95% CI 17.4 to 31.5) and for CD, Maastricht (The Netherlands; 9.2, 95% CI 6.5 to 11.8) and Amiens (north west France; 9.2, 95% CI 6.3 to 12.2). The lowest incidence of UC was in Almada (southern Portugal) (1.6, 95% CI 0.0 to 3.2) and of CD in Ioannina (north west Greece) (0.9, 95% CI 0.0 to 2.2). An unexpected finding was a difference in the age specific incidence of UC in men and women with the incidence in women but not men declining with age.

INTERPRETATION

The higher overall incidence rates in northern centres did not seem to be explained by differences in tobacco consumption or education. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the observed excess for both conditions is less than expected on the basis of previous studies. This may reflect recent increases in the incidence of IBD in southern Europe whereas those in the north may have stabilised.