Hyponatremia and mortality among patients on the liver-transplant waiting list

BACKGROUND

Under the current liver-transplantation policy, donor organs are offered to patients with the highest risk of death.

METHODS

Using data derived from all adult candidates for primary liver transplantation who were registered with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network in 2005 and 2006, we developed and validated a multivariable survival model to predict mortality at 90 days after registration. The predictor variable was the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score with and without the addition of the serum sodium concentration. The MELD score (on a scale of 6 to 40, with higher values indicating more severe disease) is calculated on the basis of the serum bilirubin and creatinine concentrations and the international normalized ratio for the prothrombin time.

RESULTS

In 2005, there were 6769 registrants, including 1781 who underwent liver transplantation and 422 who died within 90 days after registration on the waiting list. Both the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration were significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio for death, 1.21 per MELD point and 1.05 per 1-unit decrease in the serum sodium concentration for values between 125 and 140 mmol per liter; P<0.001 for both variables). Furthermore, a significant interaction was found between the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration, indicating that the effect of the serum sodium concentration was greater in patients with a low MELD score. When applied to the data from 2006, when 477 patients died within 3 months after registration on the waiting list, the combination of the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration was considerably higher than the MELD score alone in 32 patients who died (7%). Thus, assignment of priority according to the MELD score combined with the serum sodium concentration might have resulted in transplantation and prevented death.

CONCLUSIONS

This population-wide study shows that the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration are important predictors of survival among candidates for liver transplantation.

Systematic review: The model for end-stage liver disease--should it replace Child-Pugh's classification for assessing prognosis in cirrhosis?

BACKGROUND

Prognosis in cirrhotic patients has had a resurgence of interest because of liver transplantation and new therapies for complications of end-stage cirrhosis. The model for end-stage liver disease score is now used for allocation in liver transplantation waiting lists, replacing Child-Turcotte-Pugh score. However, there is debate as whether it is better in other settings of cirrhosis.

AIM

To review studies comparing the accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease score vs. Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in non-transplant settings.

RESULTS

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt studies (with 1360 cirrhotics) only one of five, showed model for end-stage liver disease to be superior to Child-Turcotte-Pugh to predict 3-month mortality, but not for 12-month mortality. Prognosis of cirrhosis studies (with 2569 patients) none of four showed significant differences between the two scores for either short- or long-term prognosis whereas no differences for variceal bleeding studies (with 411 cirrhotics). Modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, by adding creatinine, performed similarly to model for end-stage liver disease score. Hepatic encephalopathy and hyponatraemia (as an index of ascites), both components of Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, add to the prognostic performance of model for end-stage liver disease score.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on current literature, model for end-stage liver disease score does not perform better than Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in non-transplant settings. Modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease scores need further evaluation.

Evaluation of prognostic criteria for determining hospice eligibility in patients with advanced lung, heart, or liver disease. SUPPORT Investigators. Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments

CONTEXT

Many individuals involved with care of the dying advocate expanding access to hospice care for persons with advanced lung, heart, or liver disease. However, to be eligible, these patients generally must have a prognosis for survival of less than 6 months.

OBJECTIVE

To test the ability of currently available criteria to identify a population with a survival prognosis of 6 months or less among seriously ill hospitalized patients with 1 of 3 commonly fatal chronic diseases.

DESIGN

Validation study using data from the Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments (SUPPORT) phase 1 (June 1989-June 1991) and phase 2 (January 1992-January 1994), with a 6-month follow-up.

SETTING AND PATIENTS

Consecutive sample of 2607 seriously ill patients from 5 US medical centers who were hospitalized with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, or end-stage liver disease, and who survived to hospital discharge.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Descriptive and operating characteristics of 5 general and 2 disease-specific clinical criteria for identifying patients with a survival prognosis of 6 months or less, and 3 sets of combination criteria (broad, intermediate, and narrow inclusion) aimed at providing low, medium, and high thresholds for hospice eligibility based on National Hospice Organization guidelines.

RESULTS

Seventy-five percent of the sample survived more than 6 months after hospital discharge; 44% expressed a preference for palliative care. Broad inclusion criteria identified 923 patients eligible for hospice care, of whom 70% survived longer than 6 months. Intermediate inclusion criteria identified 300 patients, of whom 65% survived longer than 6 months. Narrow inclusion criteria identified 19 patients, of whom 53% survived longer than 6 months. Sensitivities and specificities of the combination criteria were 41.7% and 66.7% (broad inclusion), 16.2% and 90.1 % (intermediate inclusion), and 1.4% and 99.5% (narrow inclusion), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These data indicate that for seriously ill hospitalized patients with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, or end-stage liver disease, recommended clinical prediction criteria are not effective in identifying a population with a survival prognosis of 6 months or less.

Waiting list removal rates among patients with chronic and malignant liver diseases

Equitable liver allocation should ensure that nonelective removal rates are fairly distributed among waiting candidates. We compared removal rates for adults entered with nonmalignant (NM) (N = 9379) and hepatocellular cancer (HCC) (N = 2052) diagnoses on the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) list between April 30, 2003, and December 31, 2004. Unadjusted removal rates for NM vs. HCC diagnoses were 9.4% vs. 8.7%, 13.5% vs. 16.9% and 19.1% vs. 31.8% at 90, 180 and 365 days, respectively after listing. For NM candidates, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (RR = 1.16), age (RR = 1.03) and metabolic disease diagnoses (RR = 1.66) had higher risks of removal; and PSC (RR = 0.62) and alcoholic cirrhosis (RR = 0.82) had lower risks of removal. For HCC candidates, MELD score at listing (RR = 1.09), AFP (RR = 1.02), maximum tumor size (RR = 1.16) and age at listing (RR = 1.02) had increased risks of removal. The equation 1 - 0.920 exp[0.09369 (MELD at listing - 12.48) + 0.00193 (AFP - 97.4) + 0.1505 (maximum tumor size - 2.59) defined the probability of dropout for HCC candidates within 90 days of listing. We conclude that factors associated with the risk of removal for HCC are different from NM candidates, although MELD score at listing remains the most predictive for both groups. Liver transplant candidates with HCC may be prioritized using a risk score analogous to the MELD score.

Utility of the Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in assessing prognosis of patients with alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic hepatitis is characterized by acute, or acute-on-chronic hepatic failure and associated with a high mortality. Specific therapies should be considered for those at high risk of mortality. The Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is a marker of disease severity and mortality in persons with chronic alcoholic liver disease. Our aims were to assess the utility of the MELD score as a predictor of short-term mortality in persons with alcoholic hepatitis.

METHODS

We assessed the utility of the MELD score and compared it with the Discriminant Function (DF) as a predictor of mortality in 34 patients hospitalized with alcoholic hepatitis.

RESULTS

The area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic curve for the MELD score was 0.82 (confidence intervals 0.65-0.98), and for the DF was 0.86 (confidence intervals 0.70-1.00). However, the sensitivity and specificity in predicting 30-day mortality for a MELD score of greater than 11 was 86% and 81%, but for a DF greater than 32 was 86% and 48% respectively. The presence of ascites and bilirubin greater than 8 mg/dL were also highly predictive of mortality with a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 96%.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcoholic hepatitis remains associated with a high mortality in hospitalized patients. The MELD score performs as well as the DF in predicting mortality at 30 days. A MELD score of greater than 11, or the presence of both ascites and an elevated bilirubin greater than 8 mg/dL should prompt consideration of specific therapeutic interventions to reduce mortality.

Pretransplant MELD score and post liver transplantation survival in the UK and Ireland

It has been shown that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an accurate predictor of survival in patients with liver disease without transplantation. Four recent studies carried out in the United States have demonstrated that the MELD score obtained immediately prior to transplantation is also associated with post-transplant patient survival. Our aim was to evaluate how accurately the MELD score predicts 90-day post-transplant survival in adult patients with chronic liver disease in the UK and Ireland. The UK and Ireland Liver Transplant Audit has data on all liver transplants since 1994. We studied survival of 3838 adult patients after first elective liver transplantation according to United Network for Organ Sharing categories of their MELD scores (< or = 10, 11-18, 19-24, 25-35, > or =36). The overall survival at 90-days was 90.2%. The 90-day survival varied according to the United Network for Organ Sharing MELD categories (92.6%, 91.9%, 89.7%, 89.7%, and 70.8%, respectively; P < 0.01). Therefore, only those patients with a MELD score of 36 or higher (3% of the patients) had a survival that was markedly lower than the rest. As a consequence, the ability of the MELD score to discriminate between patients who were dead or alive was poor (c-statistic 0.58). Re-estimating the coefficients in the MELD regression model, even allowing for nonlinear relationships, did not improve its discriminatory ability. In conclusion, in the UK and Ireland the MELD score is significantly associated with post-transplant survival, but its predictive ability is poor. These results are in agreement with results found in the United States. Therefore, the most appropriate system to support patient selection for transplantation will be one that combines a pretransplant survival model (e.g., MELD score) with a properly developed post-transplant survival model.

MELD scores of liver transplant recipients according to size of waiting list: impact of organ allocation and patient outcomes

CONTEXT

The Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) score serves as the basis for the distribution of deceased-donor (DD) livers and was developed in response to "the final rule" mandate, whose stated principle is to allocate livers according to a patient's medical need, with less emphasis on keeping organs in the local procurement area. However, in selected areas of the United States, organs are kept in organ procurement organizations (OPOs) with small waiting lists and transplanted into less-sick patients instead of being allocated to sicker patients in nearby transplant centers in OPOs with large waiting lists.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether there is a difference in MELD scores for liver transplant recipients receiving transplants in small vs large OPOs.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective review of the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients between February 28, 2002, and March 31, 2003. Transplant recipients (N = 4798) had end-stage liver disease and received DD livers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

MELD score distribution (range, 6-40), graft survival, and patient survival for liver transplant recipients in small (<100) and large (> or =100 on the waiting list) OPOs.

RESULTS

The distribution of MELD scores was the same in large and small OPOs; 92% had a MELD score of 18 or less, 7% had a MELD score between 19 and 24, and only 2% of listed patients had a MELD score higher than 24 (P =.85). The proportion of patients receiving transplants in small OPOs and with a MELD score higher than 24 was significantly lower than that in large OPOs (19% vs 49%; P<.001). Patient survival rates at 1 year after transplantation for small OPOs (86.4%) and large OPOs (86.6%) were not statistically different (P =.59), and neither were graft survival rates in small OPOs (80.1%) and large OPOs (81.3%) (P =.80).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a significant disparity in MELD scores in liver transplant recipients in small vs large OPOs; fewer transplant recipients in small OPOs have severe liver disease (MELD score >24). This disparity does not reflect the stated goals of the current allocation policy, which is to distribute livers according to a patient's medical need, with less emphasis on keeping organs in the local procurement area.

Combination of Extended Donor Criteria and Changes in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Predict Patient Survival and Primary Dysfunction in Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of extended donor criteria (EDC) and of changes in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score while waiting for liver-transplantation (Delta-MELD) on patient survival and initial graft function.

METHODS

We included 386 consecutive patients with end-stage liver disease who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation at the Medical University Vienna between 1997 and 2003. Primary outcome was patient survival and secondary outcome was initial graft function. EDC included: age >60 years, >4 days intensive medical care, cold ischemia time >10 hr, need for noradrenalin >0.2 microg/kg/min or doputamin >6 microg/kg/min, a donor peak serum sodium >155 mEq/L, a donor serum creatinine >1.2 mg/100 mL, and a body mass index >30.

RESULTS

Delta-MELD was significantly higher in the nonsurvivor population (P=0.01) and EDC showed a significant influence on initial graft function (P=0.01). Worsening in either Delta-MELD or the presence of at least two EDC was not associated with an increased risk of primary graft dysfunction and death. Worsening in Delta-MELD and the presence of at least two EDC was significantly associated with primary graft dysfunction (P=0.01) and death (P=0.008).

CONCLUSION

The combination of a liver recipient with worsening Delta-MELD and a potential donor with at least two EDC should be avoided.

Bleeding time in patients with cirrhosis: relation with degree of liver failure and clotting abnormalities. C.A.L.C. Group. Coagulation Abnormalities in Cirrhosis Study Group

Patients with cirrhosis suffer from a complex haemostatic disturbance, due to abnormalities in clotting and fibrinolytic system activation and in primary haemostasis. The latter is indicated by a prolongation of bleeding time, which is a reliable indicator of platelet function in vivo. To further assess the relationship between bleeding time, degree of liver failure and clotting abnormalities in patients with cirrhosis, bleeding time was investigated in a prospective study of 70 consecutive patients with cirrhosis diagnosed by liver-needle biopsy, of whom 19 belonged to Child-Pugh class A, 29 to B and 22 to C. Among patients with cirrhosis, 40% had an abnormal bleeding time (> 10 min), and 42% had a platelet count < 100,000/microliters. Patients with severe liver failure (class C) had a lower platelet count and a more prolonged bleeding time than patients in classes A and B. Bleeding time was significantly inversely correlated to platelet count, fibrinogen, prothrombin activity and packed cell volume, and directly correlated to serum bilirubin and D-dimer. However, in class C patients, only a significant inverse correlation between bleeding time and fibrinogen was observed. These findings indicate that in cirrhosis worsening of platelet function is closely related to the degree of liver failure. The inverse correlation between bleeding time and fibrinogen indicates that a low value of this clotting parameter may account in part for platelet dysfunction.

Hemodiabsorption in treatment of hepatic failure

Conducted at the University of California, Los Angeles, this randomized, prospectively controlled study was designed to measure the effects of a hemodiabsorption device in the treatment of 11 patients with hepatic failure and stage III to IV encephalopathy. The results of 5 days of treatment with the hemodiabsorption device were compared with those of standard intensive care procedures. The BioLogic-DT System, a simple sorbent-based system, demonstrated a slight improvement in the neurologic status of patients, a significant improvement in the physiologic status of patients, and an improved outcome for treated patients as opposed to nontreated patients.

Nutritional support for liver transplantation: identifying caloric and protein requirements

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the caloric and protein requirements of patients with end-stage liver disease before and for 28 days after liver transplantation.

DESIGN

We prospectively assessed 16 adult patients who were scheduled to undergo liver transplantation between December 1989 and September 1990.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Nitrogen balance, 24-hour urinary creatinine, 3-methylhistidine, and resting energy expenditure were determined before transplantation and on days 1, 3, 5, 14, and 28 after transplantation. The investigators were unaware of the results of these measurements, and patients were fed in accordance with a previously established clinical protocol.

RESULTS

Resting energy expenditure did not increase from preoperative values; however, urinary nitrogen and 3-methylhistidine increased significantly after liver transplantation, an indication of protein catabolism from a myofibrillar source. A negative nitrogen balance persisted for 28 days post-operatively.

CONCLUSION

We recommend that caloric intake be determined by using the formulation provided by the Harris-Benedict equation at ideal body weight plus 20%. We also recommend that intake of protein be adjusted on the basis of preoperative nutritional assessment, perioperative hepatic and renal function, and results of tests used to measure the adequacy of administered protein. Parenterally or enterally administered protein of more than 1.2 g/kg daily should be well tolerated in most patients who have undergone liver transplantation.

Neurological complications after cadaveric and living donor liver transplantation

Problems related to the central nervous system have a major impact on survival and quality of life. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the incidence of neurological complications after liver transplantation (LT), including both cadaveric and living donor liver transplantation. Between April 2001 and March 2004 174 patients (120 cadaveric liver transplantations, 54 living donor transplantations) were admitted to our intensive care after liver transplantation. Of the transplanted patients 24.7% developed neurological complications. These patients' stay in the intensive care (14.2 +/- 17.2 days) was much longer than that of all admitted patients (8.4 +/- 10.5 days, p < 0.05). The most common neurological complications were encephalopathy (72.1%) and seizures (11.6 %). The incidence of neurological complications in living donor liver transplanted patients was significantly lower than in cadaveric transplantation patients (20.4% vs 26.7 %). The cold ischemia time in living donor transplanted patients was significantly shorter in comparison with cadaveric transplanted patients (215 +/- 119.3 vs. 383.7 +/- 214.7). The survival rate after liver transplantation of patients with neurological complications was lower than that of patients without, but not significantly different (79.1 % vs. 82.4%, p > 0.05). The incidence of neurological symptoms was found to be similar between the patients treated with cyclosporine (25%) and tacrolimus (23.8 %) in this study. In conclusion, there was a high incidence of neurological complications after LT, prolonging the patients' stay in intensive care significantly. The major neurological manifestation in our patients was encephalopathy followed by seizures. Living donor liver transplantation was associated with a significantly lower incidence of neurological complications compared with patients who had received a cadaveric graft. This might be due to the good quality of the organ and the much shorter cold ischemia time of the graft when the donor was alive.

A new priority policy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma awaiting liver transplantation within the model for end-stage liver disease system

The best prioritization of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation under the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) allocation system is still being debated. We analyzed the impact of a MELD adjustment for HCC, which consisted of the addition of an extra score (based on the HCC stage and waiting time) to the native MELD score. The outcome was analyzed for 301 patients with chronic liver disease listed for liver transplantation between March 1, 2001 and February 28, 2003 [United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)-Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) era, 163 patients, 28.8% with HCC] and between March 1, 2003 and February 28, 2004 (HCC-MELD era, 138 patients, 29.7% with HCC). In the HCC-MELD era, the cumulative dropout risk at 6 months was 17.6% for patients with HCC versus 22.3% for those patients without HCC (P = NS), similar to that in the UNOS-CTP era. The cumulative probability of transplantation at 6 months was 70.3% versus 39.0% (P = 0.005), being higher than that in the UNOS-CTP era for patients with HCC (P = 0.02). At the end of the HCC-MELD era, 12 patients with HCC (29.3%) versus 57 without HCC (58.8%) were still on the list (P = 0.001). Both native and adjusted MELD scores were higher (P < 0.05) and progressed more in patients with HCC who dropped out than in those who underwent transplantation or remained on the list (the initial-final native MELD scores were 17.3-23.1, 15.5-15.6, and 12.8-14.1, respectively). The patients without HCC remaining on the list showed stable MELD scores (initial-final: 15.1-15.4). In conclusion, the present data support the strategy of including the native MELD scores in the allocation system for HCC. This model allows the timely transplantation of patients with HCC without severely affecting the outcome of patients without HCC.

Liver transplantation in the era of model for end-stage liver disease

Liver transplantation is challenged by organ shortage and prolonged waiting list time. The goal of the ideal organ allocation system is to transplant individuals least likely to survive without a liver transplantation, and maintain appropriate rates of postoperative survival. Currently, liver allocation in the United States is based on the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). Studies have shown MELD to be objective and accurate in predicting short-term survival in patients with cirrhosis.

Study of plasma exchange for liver failure: beneficial and harmful effects

Plasma exchange (PE) is often performed in combination with hemodialysis (HD) or hemodiafiltration. However, most methods were developed for the treatment of renal failure, so various problems may arise during treatment of liver failure (LF). In this study, we investigated the impact of PE alone and in combination with HD, and we assessed the complications of using PE + HD for the treatment of LF. After the exchange of 1 L of fresh frozen plasma (FFP), we measured serum electrolytes, HCO(3) (-), citrate, and acetate at 3 points in the circuit: A) the plasma separator inflow; B) after mixing of FFP/the dialyzer inflow; and C) the dialyzer outflow. Serum levels of human hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), acetate, and citrate were also measured before and after PE + HD. The levels of K(+), Ca(++), HCO(3) (-), and acetate were significantly decreased, and citrate was increased, between A and B. K(+) and citrate were decreased, while Ca(++), HCO(3) (-), and acetate showed an increase between B and C. Comparison of A with C revealed insufficient correction of the Ca(++) and citrate levels by HD. After PE + HD, serum levels of acetate and citrate were increased, while HGF was decreased. We concluded that i) when PE is performed, HD is also necessary for correction, but achieves insufficient correction of Ca(++) and citrate, ii) PE is non-selective and not only removes toxins but also beneficial substances such as HGF, iii) accumulation of acetate occurred, even with bicarbonate dialysate, since it also contains acetate for acidification.

Liver transplant recipients mortality on the waiting list: long-term comparison to Child-Pugh classification and MELD

We sought to evaluate our experience concerning the high waiting list mortality rate for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) using the MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease), which has been shown to predict short-term survival better than Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification. The predominant end-stage disease was cirrhosis due to hepatitis C virus (67%), patient mean age was 36.8 years, and 72.1% were men. When the patients were included on a waiting list, the MELD score was stratified into W: 0 to 10; X: 11 to 20, and Y: 21 to 40 and the CPT as A: 5 to 6, B: 7 to 9, and C: 10 to 15. It was also observed that 77.8% of patients were on the waiting list, 16.4% underwent OLT and 5.8% had been removed. The estimated survival rate after 1 year was W = 85.4%; X = 83.3%, Y = 46.8%; A = 81.3%, B = 84.2%, C = 45.9%. Child median score was 8 +/- 1.5 (5 to 15) and the MELD was 14.7 +/- 5.1 (8 to 43). The mortality rate was 20.2%. Severe patients classified as Y or C showed greater mortality than the other groups (P <.001), but no significant difference between Y and C strata. The mortality rate was the same as in previous years.

Impact of pretransplant MELD score on posttransplant outcome in living donor liver transplantation

It is not clear whether pretransplantation MELD (model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score can foresee posttransplant outcome. We retrospectively evaluated 80 adult patients (55 men, 25 women) who underwent living donor liver transplantation between September 1998 and March 2003. Five other patients with fulminant hepatitis were excluded. The UNOS-modified MELD scores were calculated to stratify patients into three groups: group 1) MELD score less than 15 (n = 13); group 2) MELD score 15 to 24 (n = 36); and group 3) MELD score 25 and higher (n = 26). The patients were predominantly men (n = 52, 69.3%) with overall mean age of 43.9 years (range, 17-62 years). The mean follow-up was 15.7 months (range, 1-47; median = 14 months). The mean MELD score was 22.7 (range, 9-50; median = 21). The overall 1- and 2-year patient survivals were 87% and 78.7%, respectively. The 1-year patient survivals for groups 1, 2, and 3 were 100%, 87%, and 79%; respectively. 2-year survivals, 100%, 79%, and 61%, respectively. Survivals stratified by MELD showed no statistically remarkable differences in 1-year and 2-year patient survival (P = .08). In contrast, 1-year and 2-year patient survival rates for UNOS status 2A, 2B, and 3 were 73%-50%, 95%-91%, and 91%-91%, statistically significant difference (P = .002). Finally, to date preoperative MELD score showed no significant impact on 1- and 2-year posttransplant outcomes in adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation recipients, but we await longer-term follow-up with greater numbers of patients.

Utility of the MAYO End-Stage Liver Disease score, King's College Criteria, and a new in-hospital mortality score in the prognosis of in-hospital mortality in acute liver failure

INTRODUCTION

Several prognostic scores attempt to aid in the selection of patients with acute liver failure (ALF) to be treated either medically or by liver transplantation; however, their lack of fulfillment does not predict spontaneous survival in ALF and refined prognostic criteria are needed to improve such selection. Our aim was to evaluate and compare a new ALF in-hospital mortality prediction score versus King's College Criteria (KCC) and model for End-Stage Disease (MELD) score.

METHODS

First-time ALF-diagnosed individuals admitted to our institution (n = 58) were grouped according their final outcome as "alive" or "death," and those significantly different variables between groups entered into a logistic regression and lineal regression models. An ALF in-hospital mortality score (ALFIHMS) was produced and its sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operator characteristics were compared with those of KCC and MELD scores.

RESULTS

Since no significant differences (P = .81) in mortality rates between fulminant and subfulminant hepatic failure were found, no further analysis according to ALF's classification was performed. After obtaining and comparing ALFIHMS with KCC and MELD, we found that ALFIHMS prediction accuracy is higher than that of KCC and MELD score and that an ALFIHMS cutoff point >15 points is associated with an in-hospital mortality probability >50%.

CONCLUSIONS

ALFIHMS has higher prognostic accuracy than KCC and MELD scores in ALF.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and hepatic encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a frequent complication of portosystemic shunts with an incidence of about 25%. In side-to-side shunts, such as the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), there is relation between the incidence of postshunt HE and the diameter of the shunt. A smaller shunt with a diameter of < 8 mm has a lower risk of HE by maintaining some prograde portal perfusion in most patients and preventing arterioportal blood flow which may be of disadvantage in most conditions. On the other hand, a smaller shunt diameter limits the reduction in the portal-systemic pressure gradient and, therefore, may have a higher risk of rebleeding. The size of the shunt must be based on these risks which may be estimated by factors such as age, Child class, previous episodes of HE, size of varices and severity of previous bleedings. In retrospect, the decision for a specific diameter, i.e. pressure reduction, was right if the patient's liver function remained stable after TIPS, no HE occurred, and the varices disappeared. If this is not the case, the shunt diameter needs fine tuning with reduction in case of HE or functional deterioration, or enlargement if rebleeding occurred or the varices show a higher risk of such an event. This potential of fine tuning at any time is the major advantage of TIPS over the surgical shunting procedures.

The brain in acute on chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a newly defined clinical entity with significant morbidity and mortality (~40-90% at 1 year dependent on need for organ support at presentation). It defines a presentation with acute severe liver injury, often with multiorgan dysfunction, on a background of previously known or unknown cirrhosis. In its severest form, it is almost indistinguishable from acute liver failure, as similarly in around 5% may rapidly progress to intracranial hypertension and cerebral oedema culminating in coma and/or death. Our understanding of such cerebral sequelae is currently limited to clinical observation, though our knowledge base is rapidly expanding since recent consensus clinical definition and guidance. Moreover, there are now animal models of ACLF and imaging modalities to better characterize events in the brain that occur with ACLF. However, as yet there has been little in the way of interventional study of this condition which are much needed. In this review we dissect existing clinical and experimental data to better characterise the manifestations of ACLF on the brain and allow for the development of targeted therapy as currently the plethora of existing interventions were designed to treat either the effects of cirrhosis or acute liver injury independently.

MELD score versus conventional UNOS status in predicting short-term mortality after liver transplantation*

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) provides a score able to predict short-term mortality in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). In the early 2002, United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) has proposed to replace the conventional statuses 3, 2B, and 2A with a modified MELD score. However, the accuracy of the MELD model to predict post-transplantation outcome is fairly elusive. In the present study we investigated the predictive value of the MELD score for short-term patient and graft mortality in comparison with conventional UNOS status. Sixty-nine patients listed at UNOS status 3 (n = 5), 2B (n = 55) or 2A (n = 9) who underwent LT were enrolled according to strict criteria. No donor-related parameters affected 3-month patient survival. Through univariate Cox regression, pretransplantation international normalized ratio (P = 0.049) and activated partial thromboplastin time (P = 0.032) were significantly associated with 3-month patient survival, although not in the subsequent multivariate analysis. The overall MELD score was 17 +/- 6.63 (median: 16, range: 4-34), increasing from UNOS Status 3 to 2A (r(2) = 0.171, P = 0.0001). No significant difference occurred in the median MELD score between patients who underwent a second LT and those who did not (P =0.458). The inter-rate agreement between UNOS status and MELD score after categorization for clinical urgency showed a fair agreement (kappa = 0.244). The 3-month patient and graft mortality was 15.94% and 20.29% respectively. The concordance statistic did not find significance between UNOS status and MELD score for 3-month patient (P = 0.283) or graft mortality (P = 0.957), although the MELD score revealed a major sensitivity for short-term patient mortality (0.637; 95%CI: 0.513-0.75). These findings suggest the need to implement MELD model accuracy for both inter-rate agreement with UNOS Status and patient outcome.