Association Between Vaccine Refusal and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States: A Review of Measles and Pertussis

IMPORTANCE

Parents hesitant to vaccinate their children may delay routine immunizations or seek exemptions from state vaccine mandates. Recent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States have drawn attention to this phenomenon. Improved understanding of the association between vaccine refusal and the epidemiology of these diseases is needed.

OBJECTIVE

To review the published literature to evaluate the association between vaccine delay, refusal, or exemption and the epidemiology of measles and pertussis, 2 vaccine-preventable diseases with recent US outbreaks.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Search of PubMed through November 30, 2015, for reports of US measles outbreaks that have occurred since measles was declared eliminated in the United States (after January 1, 2000), endemic and epidemic pertussis since the lowest point in US pertussis incidence (after January 1, 1977), and for studies that assessed disease risk in the context of vaccine delay or exemption.

FINDINGS

We identified 18 published measles studies (9 annual summaries and 9 outbreak reports), which described 1416 measles cases (individual age range, 2 weeks-84 years; 178 cases younger than 12 months) and more than half (56.8%) had no history of measles vaccination. Of the 970 measles cases with detailed vaccination data, 574 cases were unvaccinated despite being vaccine eligible and 405 (70.6%) of these had nonmedical exemptions (eg, exemptions for religious or philosophical reasons, as opposed to medical contraindications; 41.8% of total). Among 32 reports of pertussis outbreaks, which included 10,609 individuals for whom vaccination status was reported (age range, 10 days-87 years), the 5 largest statewide epidemics had substantial proportions (range, 24%-45%) of unvaccinated or undervaccinated individuals. However, several pertussis outbreaks also occurred in highly vaccinated populations, indicating waning immunity. Nine reports (describing 12 outbreaks) provided detailed vaccination data on unimmunized cases; among 8 of these outbreaks from 59% through 93% of unvaccinated individuals were intentionally unvaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

A substantial proportion of the US measles cases in the era after elimination were intentionally unvaccinated. The phenomenon of vaccine refusal was associated with an increased risk for measles among people who refuse vaccines and among fully vaccinated individuals. Although pertussis resurgence has been attributed to waning immunity and other factors, vaccine refusal was still associated with an increased risk for pertussis in some populations.

Association of BCG, DTP, and measles containing vaccines with childhood mortality: systematic review

OBJECTIVES

 To evaluate the effects on non-specific and all cause mortality, in children under 5, of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), and standard titre measles containing vaccines (MCV); to examine internal validity of the studies; and to examine any modifying effects of sex, age, vaccine sequence, and co-administration of vitamin A.

DESIGN

 Systematic review, including assessment of risk of bias, and meta-analyses of similar studies.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

 Clinical trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies of the effects on mortality of BCG, whole cell DTP, and standard titre MCV in children under 5.

DATA SOURCES

 Searches of Medline, Embase, Global Index Medicus, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, supplemented by contact with experts in the field. To avoid overlap in children studied across the included articles, findings from non-overlapping birth cohorts were identified.

RESULTS

 Results from 34 birth cohorts were identified. Most evidence was from observational studies, with some from short term clinical trials. Most studies reported on all cause (rather than non-specific) mortality. Receipt of BCG vaccine was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality: the average relative risks were 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.49 to 1.01) from five clinical trials and 0.47 (0.32 to 0.69) from nine observational studies at high risk of bias. Receipt of DTP (almost always with oral polio vaccine) was associated with a possible increase in all cause mortality on average (relative risk 1.38, 0.92 to 2.08) from 10 studies at high risk of bias; this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Receipt of standard titre MCV was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality (relative risks 0.74 (0.51 to 1.07) from four clinical trials and 0.51 (0.42 to 0.63) from 18 observational studies at high risk of bias); this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Seven observational studies, assessed as being at high risk of bias, have compared sequences of vaccines; results of a subset of these suggest that administering DTP with or after MCV may be associated with higher mortality than administering it before MCV.

CONCLUSIONS

 Evidence suggests that receipt of BCG and MCV reduce overall mortality by more than would be expected through their effects on the diseases they prevent, and receipt of DTP may be associated with an increase in all cause mortality. Although efforts should be made to ensure that all children are immunised on schedule with BCG, DTP, and MCV, randomised trials are needed to compare the effects of different sequences.

Measles

Measles is a highly contagious disease that results from infection with measles virus and is still responsible for more than 100 000 deaths every year, down from more than 2 million deaths annually before the introduction and widespread use of measles vaccine. Measles virus is transmitted by the respiratory route and illness begins with fever, cough, coryza, and conjunctivitis followed by a characteristic rash. Complications of measles affect most organ systems, with pneumonia accounting for most measles-associated morbidity and mortality. The management of patients with measles includes provision of vitamin A. Measles is best prevented through vaccination, and the major reductions in measles incidence and mortality have renewed interest in regional elimination and global eradication. However, urgent efforts are needed to increase stagnating global coverage with two doses of measles vaccine through advocacy, education, and the strengthening of routine immunisation systems. Use of combined measles-rubella vaccines provides an opportunity to eliminate rubella and congenital rubella syndrome. Ongoing research efforts, including the development of point-of-care diagnostics and microneedle patches, will facilitate progress towards measles elimination and eradication.

The clinical significance of measles: a review

Forty years after effective vaccines were licensed, measles continues to cause death and severe disease in children worldwide. Complications from measles can occur in almost every organ system. Pneumonia, croup, and encephalitis are common causes of death; encephalitis is the most common cause of long-term sequelae. Measles remains a common cause of blindness in developing countries. Complication rates are higher in those <5 and >20 years old, although croup and otitis media are more common in those <2 years old and encephalitis in older children and adults. Complication rates are increased by immune deficiency disorders, malnutrition, vitamin A deficiency, intense exposures to measles, and lack of previous measles vaccination. Case-fatality rates have decreased with improvements in socioeconomic status in many countries but remain high in developing countries.

Individual and community risks of measles and pertussis associated with personal exemptions to immunization

CONTEXT

The risk of vaccine-preventable diseases among children who have philosophical and religious exemptions from immunization has been understudied.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether personal exemption from immunization is associated with risk of measles and pertussis at individual and community levels.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based, retrospective cohort study using data collected on standardized forms regarding all reported measles and pertussis cases among children aged 3 to 18 years in Colorado during 1987-1998.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative risk of measles and pertussis among exemptors and vaccinated children; association between incidence rates among vaccinated children and frequency of exemptors in Colorado counties; association between school outbreaks and frequency of exemptors in schools; and risk associated with exposure to an exemptor in measles outbreaks.

RESULTS

Exemptors were 22.2 times (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.9-31.1) more likely to acquire measles and 5.9 times (95% CI, 4.2-8.2) more likely to acquire pertussis than vaccinated children. After adjusting for confounders, the frequency of exemptors in a county was associated with the incidence rate of measles (relative risk [RR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0-2.4) and pertussis (RR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.7-2.1) in vaccinated children. Schools with pertussis outbreaks had more exemptors (mean, 4.3% of students) than schools without outbreaks (1. 5% of students; P =.001). At least 11% of vaccinated children in measles outbreaks acquired infection through contact with an exemptor.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of measles and pertussis is elevated in personal exemptors. Public health personnel should recognize the potential effect of exemptors in outbreaks in their communities, and parents should be made aware of the risks involved in not vaccinating their children.

Measles in England and Wales--I: An analysis of factors underlying seasonal patterns

Examination of the weekly measles notifications for England and Wales, 1950-1979, reveals a regular biennial pattern of major and minor epidemics before the national immunization programme began in 1968, followed by an annual cycle of minor epidemics. Each year the reported incidence reaches its annual low between weeks 36 and 39, very close to the opening of primary schools. Analysis of these data with a simple mass action model reveals that the underlying transmission parameter has had a similar annual pattern in years of major and minor epidemics. The transmission parameter rises three times each year, coinciding with opening of school terms, and falls with school term and mid-term holidays. This pattern of the transmission parameter has been maintained in the decade since national vaccination began, indicating that the importance of schools in the annual dynamics of measles has not changed. The analysis further suggests that the national measles vaccination programme has not lowered the total number of individuals susceptible to measles in England and Wales.

Non-specific beneficial effect of measles immunisation: analysis of mortality studies from developing countries

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the reduction in mortality after standard titre measles immunisation in developing countries can be explained simply by the prevention of acute measles and its long term consequences.

DESIGN

An analysis of all studies comparing mortality of unimmunised children and children immunised with standard titre measles vaccine in developing countries.

STUDIES

10 cohort and two case-control studies from Bangladesh, Benin, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Senegal, and Zaire.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Protective efficacy of standard titre measles immunisation against all cause mortality. Extent to which difference in mortality between immunised and unimmunised children could be explained by prevention of measles disease.

RESULTS

Protective efficacy against death after measles immunisation ranged from 30% to 86%. Efficacy was highest in the studies with short follow up and when children were immunised in infancy (range 44-100%). Vaccine efficacy against death was much greater than the proportion of deaths attributed to acute measles disease. In four studies from Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, and Burundi vaccine efficacy against death remained almost unchanged when cases of measles were excluded from the analysis. Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and polio vaccinations were not associated with reduction in mortality.

CONCLUSION

These observations suggest that standard titre measles vaccine may confer a beneficial effect which is unrelated to the specific protection against measles disease.

An age-structured model of pre- and post-vaccination measles transmission

An infection like measles does not spread uniformly in populations from Europe and North America. Of special importance is a pronounced age-dependency in the contact rates, because of increased infection transmission within schools. Therefore an age-structured epidemiologic model is investigated here, which also pays attention to the fact that children are promoted grade-wise into and out of school. Simulation results are contrasted with pre- and post-vaccination measles data from England and Wales and the model is shown to perform better than previous global mass-action models.

Non-specific effects of standard measles vaccine at 4.5 and 9 months of age on childhood mortality: randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To examine in a randomised trial whether a 25% difference in mortality exists between 4.5 months and 3 years of age for children given two standard doses of Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccines at 4.5 and 9 months of age compared with those given one dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age (current policy).

DESIGN

Randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

The Bandim Health Project, Guinea-Bissau, which maintains a health and demographic surveillance system in an urban area.

PARTICIPANTS

6648 children aged 4.5 months of age who had received three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine at least four weeks before enrolment. A large proportion of the children (80%) had previously taken part in randomised trials of neonatal vitamin A supplementation.

INTERVENTION

Children were randomised to receive Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine at 4.5 and 9 months of age (group A), no vaccine at 4.5 months and Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine at 9 months of age (group B), or no vaccine at 4.5 months and Schwarz measles vaccine at 9 months of age (group C). Main outcome measure Mortality rate ratio between 4.5 and 36 months of age for group A compared with groups B and C. Secondary outcomes tested the hypothesis that the beneficial effect was stronger in the 4.5 to 9 months age group, in girls, and in the dry season, but the study was not powered to test whether effects differed significantly between subgroups.

RESULTS

In the intention to treat analysis of mortality between 4.5 and 36 months of age the mortality rate ratio of children who received two doses of Edmonston-Zagreb vaccine at 4.5 and 9 months of age compared with those who received a single dose of Edmonston-Zagreb vaccine or Schwarz vaccine at 9 months of age was 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.59 to 1.05). In the analyses of secondary outcomes, the intention to treat mortality rate ratio was 0.67 (0.38 to 1.19) between 4.5 and 9 months and 0.83 (0.83 to 1.16) between 9 and 36 months of age. The effect on mortality between 4.5 and 36 months of age was significant for girls (intention to treat mortality rate ratio 0.64 (0.42 to 0.98)), although this was not significantly different from the effect in boys (0.95 (0.64 to 1.42)) (interaction test, P=0.18). The effect did not differ between the dry season and the rainy season. As neonatal vitamin A supplementation is not WHO policy, the analyses were done separately for the 3402 children who did not receive neonatal vitamin A. In these children, the two dose Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine schedule was associated with a significantly lower mortality between 4.5 and 36 months of age (intention to treat mortality rate ratio 0.59 (0.39 to 0.89)). The effect was again significant for girls but not statistically significant from the effect in boys. When measles cases were censored, the intention to treat mortality rate ratio was 0.65 (0.43 to 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the overall effect did not reach statistical significance, the results may indicate that a two dose schedule with Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccine given at 4.5 and 9 months of age has beneficial non-specific effects on children's survival, particularly for girls and for children who have not received neonatal vitamin A. This should be tested in future studies in different locations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical trials NCT00168558.

Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data

BACKGROUND

In 2008 all WHO member states endorsed a target of 90% reduction in measles mortality by 2010 over 2000 levels. We developed a model to estimate progress made towards this goal.

METHODS

We constructed a state-space model with population and immunisation coverage estimates and reported surveillance data to estimate annual national measles cases, distributed across age classes. We estimated deaths by applying age-specific and country-specific case-fatality ratios to estimated cases in each age-country class.

FINDINGS

Estimated global measles mortality decreased 74% from 535,300 deaths (95% CI 347,200-976,400) in 2000 to 139,300 (71,200-447,800) in 2010. Measles mortality was reduced by more than three-quarters in all WHO regions except the WHO southeast Asia region. India accounted for 47% of estimated measles mortality in 2010, and the WHO African region accounted for 36%.

INTERPRETATION

Despite rapid progress in measles control from 2000 to 2007, delayed implementation of accelerated disease control in India and continued outbreaks in Africa stalled momentum towards the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal. Intensified control measures and renewed political and financial commitment are needed to achieve mortality reduction targets and lay the foundation for future global eradication of measles.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (PMS 5U66/IP000161).

Measles

Measles is a highly contagious disease caused by measles virus and is one of the most devastating infectious diseases of man--measles was responsible for millions of deaths annually worldwide before the introduction of the measles vaccines. Remarkable progress in reducing the number of people dying from measles has been made through measles vaccination, with an estimated 164,000 deaths attributed to measles in 2008. This achievement attests to the enormous importance of measles vaccination to public health. However, this progress is threatened by failure to maintain high levels of measles vaccine coverage. Recent measles outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the USA show the ease with which measles virus can re-enter communities if high levels of population immunity are not sustained. The major challenges for continued measles control and eventual eradication will be logistical, financial, and the garnering of sufficient political will. These challenges need to be met to ensure that future generations of children do not die of measles.

Age-related changes in the rate of disease transmission: implications for the design of vaccination programmes

Mathematical models are developed to aid in the investigation of the implications of heterogeneity in contact with infection within a community, on the design of mass vaccination programmes for the control of childhood viral and bacterial infections in developed countries. Analyses are focused on age-dependency in the rate at which individuals acquire infection, the question of 'who acquires infection from whom', and the implications of genetic variability in susceptibility to infection. Throughout, theoretical predictions are based on parameter estimates obtained from epidemiological studies and are compared with observed temporal trends in disease incidence and age-stratified serological profiles. Analysis of case notification records and serological data suggest that the rate at which individuals acquire many common infections changes from medium to high and then to low levels in the infant, child and teenage plus adult age groups respectively. Such apparent age-dependency in attack rate acts to reduce slightly the predicted levels of herd immunity required for the eradication of infections such as measles, when compared with the predictions of models based on age-independent transmission. The action of maternally derived immunity in prohibiting vaccination in infants, and the broad span of age classes over which vaccination currently takes place in the U.K., however, argue that levels of herd immunity of between 90 and 94% would be required to eliminate measles. Problems surrounding the interpretation of apparent age-related trends in the acquisition of infection and their relevance to the design of vaccination programmes, are discussed in relation to the possible role of genetically based variation in susceptibility to infection and observations on epidemics in 'virgin' populations. Heterogeneous mixing models provide predictions of changes in serology and disease incidence under the impact of mass vaccination which well mirror observed trends in England and Wales.

Vaccination against rubella and measles: quantitative investigations of different policies

This paper uses relatively simple and deterministic mathematical models to examine the impact that different immunization policies have on the age-specific incidence of rubella and measles. Following earlier work by Knox (1980) and others, we show that immunization programmes can, under some circumstances, increase the total number of cases among older age groups; the implications for the overall incidence of measles encephalitis and of congenital rubella syndrome are examined, paying attention both to the eventual equilibrium and to the short-term effect in the first few decades after immunization is initiated. Throughout, we use data (from the U.K., and U.S.A. and other countries) both in the estimation of the epidemiological parameters in our models, and in comparison between theoretical predictions and observed facts. The conclusions defy brief summary and are set out at the end of the paper.

Vitamin A supplements for preventing mortality, illness, and blindness in children aged under 5: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine if vitamin A supplementation is associated with reductions in mortality and morbidity in children aged 6 months to 5 years.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis. Two reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion. Data were double extracted; discrepancies were resolved by discussion. Meta-analyses were performed for mortality, illness, vision, and side effects.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, Global Health, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences, metaRegister of Controlled Trials, and African Index Medicus. Databases were searched to April 2010 without restriction by language or publication status.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Randomised trials of synthetic oral vitamin A supplements in children aged 6 months to 5 years. Studies of children with current illness (such as diarrhoea, measles, and HIV), studies of children in hospital, and studies of food fortification or β carotene were excluded.

RESULTS

43 trials with about 215,633 children were included. Seventeen trials including 194,483 participants reported a 24% reduction in all cause mortality (rate ratio=0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 0.83). Seven trials reported a 28% reduction in mortality associated with diarrhoea (0.72, 0.57 to 0.91). Vitamin A supplementation was associated with a reduced incidence of diarrhoea (0.85, 0.82 to 0.87) and measles (0.50, 0.37 to 0.67) and a reduced prevalence of vision problems, including night blindness (0.32, 0.21 to 0.50) and xerophthalmia (0.31, 0.22 to 0.45). Three trials reported an increased risk of vomiting within the first 48 hours of supplementation (2.75, 1.81 to 4.19).

CONCLUSIONS

Vitamin A supplementation is associated with large reductions in mortality, morbidity, and vision problems in a range of settings, and these results cannot be explained by bias. Further placebo controlled trials of vitamin A supplementation in children between 6 and 59 months of age are not required. However, there is a need for further studies comparing different doses and delivery mechanisms (for example, fortification). Until other sources are available, vitamin A supplements should be given to all children at risk of deficiency, particularly in low and middle income countries.

Early waning of maternal measles antibodies in era of measles elimination: longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the duration of the presence of maternal antibodies to measles in infants.

DESIGN

Prospective study (May 2006 to November 2008).

SETTING

Five hospitals in the Province of Antwerp, Belgium.

PARTICIPANTS

Of 221 pregnant women recruited, 207 healthy woman-infant pairs were included-divided into a vaccinated group (n=87) and naturally immune group (n=120), according to vaccination documents and history.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Measles IgG antibodies measured by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) at seven time points (week 36 of pregnancy, birth (cord), and 1, 6, 9, and 12 months); decay of maternal antibody in infants modelled with linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Vaccinated women had significantly fewer IgG antibodies (geometric mean titre 779 (95% confidence interval 581 to 1045) mIU/ml) than did naturally immune women (2687 (2126 to 3373) mIU/ml) (P<0.001). Maternal values were highly correlated with neonatal values (r=0.93 at birth). Infants of vaccinated women had significantly lower antibody concentrations than did infants of naturally immune women (P<0.001 at all ages over the follow-up period). Presence of maternal antibodies endured for a median of 2.61 months-3.78 months for infants of naturally infected women and 0.97 months for infants of vaccinated women. At 6 months of age, more than 99% of infants of vaccinated women and 95% of infants of naturally immune women had lost maternal antibodies according to the model.

CONCLUSIONS

This study describes a very early susceptibility to measles in infants of both vaccinated women and women with naturally acquired immunity. This finding is important in view of recent outbreaks and is an argument for timeliness of the first dose of a measles vaccine and vaccination of travelling or migrating children under the age of 1 year.

Implications of a 2005 measles outbreak in Indiana for sustained elimination of measles in the United States

BACKGROUND

Measles was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000 but remains endemic worldwide. In 2005, a 17-year-old unvaccinated girl who was incubating measles returned from Romania, creating the largest documented outbreak of measles in the United States since 1996.

METHODS

We conducted a case-series investigation, molecular typing of viral isolates, surveys of rates of vaccination coverage, interviews regarding attitudes toward vaccination, and cost surveys.

RESULTS

Approximately 500 persons attended a gathering with the index patient one day after her return home. Approximately 50 lacked evidence of measles immunity, of whom 16 (32 percent) acquired measles at the gathering. During the six weeks after the gathering, a total of 34 cases of measles were confirmed. Of the patients with confirmed measles, 94 percent were unvaccinated, 88 percent were less than 20 years of age, and 9 percent were hospitalized. Of the 28 patients who were 5 to 19 years of age, 71 percent were home-schooled. Vaccine failure occurred in two persons. The virus strain was genotype D4, which is endemic in Romania. Although containment measures began after 20 persons were already infectious, measles remained confined mostly to children whose parents had refused to have them vaccinated, primarily out of concern for adverse events from the vaccine. Seventy-one percent of patients were from four households. Levels of measles-vaccination coverage in Indiana were 92 percent for preschoolers and 98 percent for sixth graders. Estimated costs of containing the disease were at least 167,685 dollars, including 113,647 dollars at a hospital with an infected employee.

CONCLUSIONS

This outbreak was caused by the importation of measles into a population of children whose parents had refused to have them vaccinated because of safety concerns about the vaccine. High vaccination levels in the surrounding community and low rates of vaccine failure averted an epidemic. Maintenance of high rates of vaccination coverage, including improved strategies of communication with persons who refuse vaccination, is necessary to prevent future outbreaks and sustain the elimination of measles in the United States.

Health consequences of religious and philosophical exemptions from immunization laws: individual and societal risk of measles

CONTEXT

All US states require proof of immunization for school entry. Exemptions are generally offered for medical, religious, or philosophical reasons, but the health consequences of claiming such exemptions are poorly documented.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the risk of contracting measles among individuals claiming religious and/or philosophical exemptions from immunization (exemptors) compared with vaccinated persons, and to examine the risk that exemptors pose to the nonexempt population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based, retrospective cohort study of data from 1985 through 1992, collected by the Measles Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as from annual state immunization program reports on prevalence of exemptors and vaccination coverage. The study group was restricted to individuals aged 5 to 19 years. To empirically determine and quantify community risk, a mathematical model was developed that examines the spread of measles through communities with varying proportions of exemptors and vaccinated children.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative risk of contracting measles for exemptors vs vaccinated individuals based on cohort study data. Community risk of contracting measles derived from a mathematical model.

RESULTS

On average, exemptors were 35 times more likely to contract measles than were vaccinated persons (95% confidence interval, 34-37). Relative risk varied by age and year. Comparing the incidence among exemptors with that among vaccinated children and adolescents during the years 1985-1992 indicated that the 1989-1991 measles resurgence may have occurred 1 year earlier among exemptors. Mapping of exemptors by county in California indicated that exempt populations tended to be clustered in certain geographic regions. Depending on assumptions of the model about the degree of mixing between exemptors and nonexemptors, an increase or decrease in the number of exemptors would affect the incidence of measles in nonexempt populations. If the number of exemptors doubled, the incidence of measles infection in nonexempt individuals would increase by 5.5%, 18.6%, and 30.8%, respectively, for intergroup mixing ratios of 20%, 40%, and 60%.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest the need for systematic review of vaccine-preventable incidents to examine the effect of exemptors, increased surveillance of the number of exemptors and cases among them, and research to determine the reasons why individuals claim exemptions.

How changes in coverage affect equity in maternal and child health interventions in 35 Countdown to 2015 countries: an analysis of national surveys

BACKGROUND

Achievement of global health goals will require assessment of progress not only nationally but also for population subgroups. We aimed to assess how the magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in health changes in relation to different rates of national progress in coverage of interventions for the health of mothers and children.

METHODS

We assessed coverage in low-income and middle-income countries for which two Demographic Health Surveys or Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys were available. We calculated changes in overall coverage of skilled birth attendants, measles vaccination, and a composite coverage index, and examined coverage of a newly introduced intervention, use of insecticide-treated bednets by children. We stratified coverage data according to asset-based wealth quintiles, and calculated relative and absolute indices of inequality. We adjusted correlation analyses for time between surveys and baseline coverage levels.

FINDINGS

We included 35 countries with surveys done an average of 9·1 years apart. Pro-rich inequalities were very prevalent. We noted increased coverage of skilled birth attendants, measles vaccination, and the composite index in most countries from the first to the second survey, while inequalities were reduced. Rapid changes in overall coverage were associated with improved equity. These findings were not due to a capping effect associated with limited scope for improvement in rich households. For use of insecticide-treated bednets, coverage was high for the richest households, but countries making rapid progress did almost as well in reaching the poorest groups. National increases in coverage were primarily driven by how rapidly coverage increased in the poorest quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

Equity should be accounted for when planning the scaling up of interventions and assessing national progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; World Bank; Governments of Australia, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Sweden, and UK.

Estimation of vaccine effectiveness using the screening method

The screening method provides a simple and rapid way of estimating vaccine effectiveness. The paper discusses the validity of the screening method with particular reference to bias and precision. Methods for correcting confounding, adjusting for covariates and over-dispersion, and deriving confidence limits are discussed in a modelling framework. The methods are illustrated using data on measles and pertussis vaccines.

Has the 2005 measles mortality reduction goal been achieved? A natural history modelling study

BACKGROUND

In 2002, the UN General Assembly Special Session on Children adopted a goal to reduce deaths owing to measles by half by the end of 2005, compared with 1999 estimates. We describe efforts and progress made towards this goal.

METHODS

We assessed trends in immunisation against measles on the basis of national implementation of the WHO/UNICEF comprehensive strategy for measles mortality reduction, and the provision of a second opportunity for measles immunisation. We used a natural history model to evaluate trends in mortality due to measles.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2005, according to our model mortality owing to measles was reduced by 60%, from an estimated 873,000 deaths (uncertainty bounds 634,000-1,140,000) in 1999 to 345,000 deaths (247,000-458,000) in 2005. The largest percentage reduction in estimated measles mortality during this period was in the western Pacific region (81%), followed by Africa (75%) and the eastern Mediterranean region (62%). Africa achieved the largest total reduction, contributing 72% of the global reduction in measles mortality. Nearly 7.5 million deaths from measles were prevented through immunisation between 1999 and 2005, with supplemental immunisation activities and improved routine immunisation accounting for 2.3 million of these prevented deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The achievement of the 2005 global measles mortality reduction goal is evidence of what can be accomplished for child survival in countries with high childhood mortality when safe, cost-effective, and affordable interventions are backed by country-level political commitment and an effective international partnership.

The elimination of indigenous measles, mumps, and rubella from Finland by a 12-year, two-dose vaccination program

BACKGROUND

In the 1970s measles, mumps, and rubella were rampant in Finland, and rates of immunization were inadequate. In 1982 a comprehensive national vaccination program began in which two doses of a combined live-virus vaccine were used.

METHODS

Public health nurses at 1036 child health centers administered the vaccine to children at 14 to 18 months of age and again at 6 years, and also to selected groups of older children and young adults. Vaccination was voluntary and free of charge. In follow-up studies, we focused on rates of vaccination, reasons for noncompliance, adverse reactions, immunogenicity, persistence of antibody, and incidence of the three diseases. Since 1987, paired serum samples have been collected from all patients with suspected cases of measles, mumps, or rubella.

RESULTS

Over a period of 12 years, 1.5 million of the 5 million people in Finland were vaccinated. Coverage now exceeds 95 percent. The vaccine was efficient and safe, even in those with a history of severe allergy. No deaths or persistent sequelae were attributable to vaccination. The most frequent complication requiring hospitalization was acute thrombocytopenic purpura, which occurred at a rate of 3.3 per 100,000 vaccinated persons. The 99 percent decrease in the incidence of the three diseases was accompanied by an increasing rate of false positive clinical diagnoses. In 655 vaccinated patients with clinically diagnosed disease, serologic studies confirmed the presence of measles in only 0.8 percent, mumps in 2.0 percent, and rubella in 1.2 percent. The few localized outbreaks were confined to patients in the partially vaccinated age groups. There are now fewer than 30 sporadic cases of each of the three diseases per year, and those are probably imported.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 12-year period, an immunization program using two doses of combined live-virus vaccine has eliminated indigenous measles, mumps, and rubella from Finland. Serologic studies show that most reported sporadic cases are now due to other causes, but a continued high rate of vaccination coverage is essential to prevent outbreaks resulting from exposure to imported disease.

Mathematical models in the evaluation of health programmes

Modelling is valuable in the planning and evaluation of interventions, especially when a controlled trial is ethically or logistically impossible. Models are often used to calculate the expected course of events in the absence of more formal assessments. They are also used to derive estimates of rare or future events from recorded intermediate points. When developing models, decisions are needed about the appropriate level of complexity to be represented and about model structure and assumptions. The degree of rigor in model development and assessment can vary greatly, and there is a danger that existing beliefs inappropriately influence judgments about model assumptions and results.