A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation

The objective of this study was to develop a prospectively applicable method for classifying comorbid conditions which might alter the risk of mortality for use in longitudinal studies. A weighted index that takes into account the number and the seriousness of comorbid disease was developed in a cohort of 559 medical patients. The 1-yr mortality rates for the different scores were: "0", 12% (181); "1-2", 26% (225); "3-4", 52% (71); and "greater than or equal to 5", 85% (82). The index was tested for its ability to predict risk of death from comorbid disease in the second cohort of 685 patients during a 10-yr follow-up. The percent of patients who died of comorbid disease for the different scores were: "0", 8% (588); "1", 25% (54); "2", 48% (25); "greater than or equal to 3", 59% (18). With each increased level of the comorbidity index, there were stepwise increases in the cumulative mortality attributable to comorbid disease (log rank chi 2 = 165; p less than 0.0001). In this longer follow-up, age was also a predictor of mortality (p less than 0.001). The new index performed similarly to a previous system devised by Kaplan and Feinstein. The method of classifying comorbidity provides a simple, readily applicable and valid method of estimating risk of death from comorbid disease for use in longitudinal studies. Further work in larger populations is still required to refine the approach because the number of patients with any given condition in this study was relatively small.

Longitudinal data analysis for discrete and continuous outcomes

Longitudinal data sets are comprised of repeated observations of an outcome and a set of covariates for each of many subjects. One objective of statistical analysis is to describe the marginal expectation of the outcome variable as a function of the covariates while accounting for the correlation among the repeated observations for a given subject. This paper proposes a unifying approach to such analysis for a variety of discrete and continuous outcomes. A class of generalized estimating equations (GEEs) for the regression parameters is proposed. The equations are extensions of those used in quasi-likelihood (Wedderburn, 1974, Biometrika 61, 439-447) methods. The GEEs have solutions which are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian even when the time dependence is misspecified as we often expect. A consistent variance estimate is presented. We illustrate the use of the GEE approach with longitudinal data from a study of the effect of mothers' stress on children's morbidity.

External review and validation of the Swedish national inpatient register

BACKGROUND

The Swedish National Inpatient Register (IPR), also called the Hospital Discharge Register, is a principal source of data for numerous research projects. The IPR is part of the National Patient Register. The Swedish IPR was launched in 1964 (psychiatric diagnoses from 1973) but complete coverage did not begin until 1987. Currently, more than 99% of all somatic (including surgery) and psychiatric hospital discharges are registered in the IPR. A previous validation of the IPR by the National Board of Health and Welfare showed that 85-95% of all diagnoses in the IPR are valid. The current paper describes the history, structure, coverage and quality of the Swedish IPR.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In January 2010, we searched the medical databases, Medline and HighWire, using the search algorithm "validat* (inpatient or hospital discharge) Sweden". We also contacted 218 members of the Swedish Society of Epidemiology and an additional 201 medical researchers to identify papers that had validated the IPR. In total, 132 papers were reviewed. The positive predictive value (PPV) was found to differ between diagnoses in the IPR, but is generally 85-95%.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the validity of the Swedish IPR is high for many but not all diagnoses. The long follow-up makes the register particularly suitable for large-scale population-based research, but for certain research areas the use of other health registers, such as the Swedish Cancer Register, may be more suitable.

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associated with the metabolic syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of and the cardiovascular risk associated with the metabolic syndrome using the new definition proposed by the World Health Organization

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 4,483 subjects aged 35-70 years participating in a large family study of type 2 diabetes in Finland and Sweden (the Botnia study) were included in the analysis of cardiovascular risk associated with the metabolic syndrome. In subjects who had type 2 diabetes (n = 1,697), impaired fasting glucose (IFG)/impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (n = 798) or insulin-resistance with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) (n = 1,988), the metabolic syndrome was defined as presence of at least two of the following risk factors: obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, or microalbuminuria. Cardiovascular mortality was assessed in 3,606 subjects with a median follow-up of 6.9 years.

RESULTS

In women and men, respectively, the metabolic syndrome was seen in 10 and 15% of subjects with NGT, 42 and 64% of those with IFG/IGT, and 78 and 84% of those with type 2 diabetes. The risk for coronary heart disease and stroke was increased threefold in subjects with the syndrome (P < 0.001). Cardiovascular mortality was markedly increased in subjects with the metabolic syndrome (12.0 vs. 2.2%, P < 0.001). Of the individual components of the metabolic syndrome, microalbuminuria conferred the strongest risk of cardiovascular death (RR 2.80; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The WHO definition of the metabolic syndrome identifies subjects with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and offers a tool for comparison of results from diferent studies.

The disease burden associated with overweight and obesity

CONTEXT

Overweight and obesity are increasing dramatically in the United States and most likely contribute substantially to the burden of chronic health conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the relationship between weight status and prevalence of health conditions by severity of overweight and obesity in the US population.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Nationally representative cross-sectional survey using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), which was conducted in 2 phases from 1988 to 1994.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 16884 adults, 25 years and older, classified as overweight and obese (body mass index [BMI] > or =25 kg/m2) based on National Institutes of Health recommended guidelines.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, gallbladder disease, coronary heart disease, high blood cholesterol level, high blood pressure, or osteoarthritis.

RESULTS

Sixty-three percent of men and 55% of women had a body mass index of 25 kg/m2 or greater. A graded increase in the prevalence ratio (PR) was observed with increasing severity of overweight and obesity for all of the health outcomes except for coronary heart disease in men and high blood cholesterol level in both men and women. With normal-weight individuals as the reference, for individuals with BMIs of at least 40 kg/m2 and who were younger than 55 years, PRs were highest for type 2 diabetes for men (PR, 18.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7-46.8) and women (PR, 12.9; 95% CI, 5.7-28.1) and gallbladder disease for men (PR, 21.1; 95% CI, 4.1-84.2) and women (PR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.9-8.9). Prevalence ratios generally were greater in younger than in older adults. The prevalence of having 2 or more health conditions increased with weight status category across all racial and ethnic subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on these results, more than half of all US adults are considered overweight or obese. The prevalence of obesity-related comorbidities emphasizes the need for concerted efforts to prevent and treat obesity rather than just its associated comorbidities.

Mortality associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in the United States

CONTEXT

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause substantial morbidity and mortality. Statistical methods used to estimate deaths in the United States attributable to influenza have not accounted for RSV circulation.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a statistical model using national mortality and viral surveillance data to estimate annual influenza- and RSV-associated deaths in the United States, by age group, virus, and influenza type and subtype.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION

Age-specific Poisson regression models using national viral surveillance data for the 1976-1977 through 1998-1999 seasons were used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. Influenza- and RSV-associated deaths were simultaneously estimated for the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Attributable deaths for 3 categories: underlying pneumonia and influenza, underlying respiratory and circulatory, and all causes.

RESULTS

Annual estimates of influenza-associated deaths increased significantly between the 1976-1977 and 1998-1999 seasons for all 3 death categories (P<.001 for each category). For the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons, the greatest mean numbers of deaths were associated with influenza A(H3N2) viruses, followed by RSV, influenza B, and influenza A(H1N1). Influenza viruses and RSV, respectively, were associated with annual means (SD) of 8097 (3084) and 2707 (196) underlying pneumonia and influenza deaths, 36 155 (11 055) and 11 321 (668) underlying respiratory and circulatory deaths, and 51 203 (15 081) and 17 358 (1086) all-cause deaths. For underlying respiratory and circulatory deaths, 90% of influenza- and 78% of RSV-associated deaths occurred among persons aged 65 years or older. Influenza was associated with more deaths than RSV in all age groups except for children younger than 1 year. On average, influenza was associated with 3 times as many deaths as RSV.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality associated with both influenza and RSV circulation disproportionately affects elderly persons. Influenza deaths have increased substantially in the last 2 decades, in part because of aging of the population, underscoring the need for better prevention measures, including more effective vaccines and vaccination programs for elderly persons.

Radical cystectomy in the treatment of invasive bladder cancer: long-term results in 1,054 patients

PURPOSE

To evaluate our long-term experience with patients treated uniformly with radical cystectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection for invasive bladder cancer and to describe the association of the primary bladder tumor stage and regional lymph node status with clinical outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All patients undergoing radical cystectomy with bilateral pelvic iliac lymphadenectomy, with the intent to cure, for transitional-cell carcinoma of the bladder between July 1971 and December 1997, with or without adjuvant radiation or chemotherapy, were evaluated. The clinical course, pathologic characteristics, and long-term clinical outcomes were evaluated in this group of patients.

RESULTS

A total of 1,054 patients (843 men [80%] and 211 women) with a median age of 66 years (range, 22 to 93 years) were uniformly treated. Median follow-up was 10.2 years (range, 0 to 28 years). There were 27 (2.5%) perioperative deaths, with a total of 292 (28%) early complications. Overall recurrence-free survival at 5 and 10 years for the entire cohort was 68% and 66%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year recurrence-free survival for patients with organ-confined, lymph node-negative tumors was 92% and 86% for P0 disease, 91% and 89% for Pis, 79% and 74% for Pa, and 83% and 78% for P1 tumors, respectively. Patients with muscle invasive (P2 and P3a), lymph node-negative tumors had 89% and 87% and 78% and 76% 5- and 10-year recurrence-free survival, respectively. Patients with nonorgan-confined (P3b, P4), lymph node-negative tumors demonstrated a significantly higher probability of recurrence compared with those with organ-confined bladder cancers (P <.001). The 5- and 10-year recurrence-free survival for P3b tumors was 62% and 61%, and for P4 tumors was 50% and 45%, respectively. A total of 246 patients (24%) had lymph node tumor involvement. The 5- and 10-year recurrence-free survival for these patients was 35%, and 34%, respectively, which was significantly lower than for patients without lymph node involvement (P <.001). Patients could also be stratified by the number of lymph nodes involved and by the extent of the primary bladder tumor (p stage). Patients with fewer than five positive lymph nodes, and whose p stage was organ-confined had significantly improved survival rates. Bladder cancer recurred in 311 patients (30%). The median time to recurrence among those patients in whom the cancer recurred was 12 months (range, 0.04 to 11.1 years). In 234 patients (22%) there was a distant recurrence, and in 77 patients (7%) there was a local (pelvic) recurrence.

CONCLUSION

These data from a large group of patients support the aggressive surgical management of invasive bladder cancer. Excellent long-term survival can be achieved with a low incidence of pelvic recurrence.

Incidence of adverse events and negligence in hospitalized patients. Results of the Harvard Medical Practice Study I

BACKGROUND

As part of an interdisciplinary study of medical injury and malpractice litigation, we estimated the incidence of adverse events, defined as injuries caused by medical management, and of the subgroup of such injuries that resulted from negligent or substandard care.

METHODS

We reviewed 30,121 randomly selected records from 51 randomly selected acute care, nonpsychiatric hospitals in New York State in 1984. We then developed population estimates of injuries and computed rates according to the age and sex of the patients as well as the specialties of the physicians.

RESULTS

Adverse events occurred in 3.7 percent of the hospitalizations (95 percent confidence interval, 3.2 to 4.2), and 27.6 percent of the adverse events were due to negligence (95 percent confidence interval, 22.5 to 32.6). Although 70.5 percent of the adverse events gave rise to disability lasting less than six months, 2.6 percent caused permanently disabling injuries and 13.6 percent led to death. The percentage of adverse events attributable to negligence increased in the categories of more severe injuries (Wald test chi 2 = 21.04, P less than 0.0001). Using weighted totals, we estimated that among the 2,671,863 patients discharged from New York hospitals in 1984 there were 98,609 adverse events and 27,179 adverse events involving negligence. Rates of adverse events rose with age (P less than 0.0001). The percentage of adverse events due to negligence was markedly higher among the elderly (P less than 0.01). There were significant differences in rates of adverse events among categories of clinical specialties (P less than 0.0001), but no differences in the percentage due to negligence.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a substantial amount of injury to patients from medical management, and many injuries are the result of substandard care.

The prevalence of comorbid depression in adults with diabetes: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the odds and prevalence of clinically relevant depression in adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Depression is associated with hyperglycemia and an increased risk for diabetic complications; relief of depression is associated with improved glycemic control. A more accurate estimate of depression prevalence than what is currently available is needed to gauge the potential impact of depression management in diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases and published references were used to identify studies that reported the prevalence of depression in diabetes. Prevalence was calculated as an aggregate mean weighted by the combined number of subjects in the included studies. We used chi(2) statistics and odds ratios (ORs) to assess the rate and likelihood of depression as a function of type of diabetes, sex, subject source, depression assessment method, and study design.

RESULTS

A total of 42 eligible studies were identified; 20 (48%) included a nondiabetic comparison group. In the controlled studies, the odds of depression in the diabetic group were twice that of the nondiabetic comparison group (OR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.8-2.2) and did not differ by sex, type of diabetes, subject source, or assessment method. The prevalence of comorbid depression was significantly higher in diabetic women (28%) than in diabetic men (18%), in uncontrolled (30%) than in controlled studies (21%), in clinical (32%) than in community (20%) samples, and when assessed by self-report questionnaires (31%) than by standardized diagnostic interviews (11%).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of diabetes doubles the odds of comorbid depression. Prevalence estimates are affected by several clinical and methodological variables that do not affect the stability of the ORs.

Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level.

METHODS

We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (-3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7]), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4).

INTERPRETATION

China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system.

FUNDING

China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

International study of the prevalence and outcomes of infection in intensive care units

CONTEXT

Infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. However, relatively little information is available about the global epidemiology of such infections.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an up-to-date, international picture of the extent and patterns of infection in ICUs.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

The Extended Prevalence of Infection in Intensive Care (EPIC II) study, a 1-day, prospective, point prevalence study with follow-up conducted on May 8, 2007. Demographic, physiological, bacteriological, therapeutic, and outcome data were collected for 14,414 patients in 1265 participating ICUs from 75 countries on the study day. Analyses focused on the data from the 13,796 adult (>18 years) patients.

RESULTS

On the day of the study, 7087 of 13,796 patients (51%) were considered infected; 9084 (71%) were receiving antibiotics. The infection was of respiratory origin in 4503 (64%), and microbiological culture results were positive in 4947 (70%) of the infected patients; 62% of the positive isolates were gram-negative organisms, 47% were gram-positive, and 19% were fungi. Patients who had longer ICU stays prior to the study day had higher rates of infection, especially infections due to resistant staphylococci, Acinetobacter, Pseudomonas species, and Candida species. The ICU mortality rate of infected patients was more than twice that of noninfected patients (25% [1688/6659] vs 11% [ 682/6352], respectively; P < .001), as was the hospital mortality rate (33% [2201/6659] vs 15% [ 942/6352], respectively; P < .001) (adjusted odds ratio for risk of hospital mortality, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-1.68; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Infections are common in patients in contemporary ICUs, and risk of infection increases with duration of ICU stay. In this large cohort, infection was independently associated with an increased risk of hospital death.

Prevention of stroke by antihypertensive drug treatment in older persons with isolated systolic hypertension. Final results of the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP). SHEP Cooperative Research Group

OBJECTIVE

To assess the ability of antihypertensive drug treatment to reduce the risk of nonfatal and fatal (total) stroke in isolated systolic hypertension.

DESIGN

Multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled.

SETTING

Community-based ambulatory population in tertiary care centers.

PARTICIPANTS

4736 persons (1.06%) from 447,921 screenees aged 60 years and above were randomized (2365 to active treatment, 2371 to placebo). Systolic blood pressure ranged from 160 to 219 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure was less than 90 mm Hg. Of the participants, 3161 were not receiving antihypertensive medication at initial contact, and 1575 were. The average systolic blood pressure was 170 mm Hg; average diastolic blood pressure, 77 mm Hg. The mean age was 72 years, 57% were women, and 14% were black.

INTERVENTIONS

--Participants were stratified by clinical center and by antihypertensive medication status at initial contact. For step 1 of the trial, dose 1 was chlorthalidone, 12.5 mg/d, or matching placebo; dose 2 was 25 mg/d. For step 2, dose 1 was atenolol, 25 mg/d, or matching placebo; dose 2 was 50 mg/d.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary. Nonfatal and fatal (total) stroke. Secondary. Cardiovascular and coronary morbidity and mortality, all-cause mortality, and quality of life measures.

RESULTS

Average follow-up was 4.5 years. The 5-year average systolic blood pressure was 155 mm Hg for the placebo group and 143 mm Hg for the active treatment group, and the 5-year average diastolic blood pressure was 72 and 68 mm Hg, respectively. The 5-year incidence of total stroke was 5.2 per 100 participants for active treatment and 8.2 per 100 for placebo. The relative risk by proportional hazards regression analysis was 0.64 (P = .0003). For the secondary end point of clinical nonfatal myocardial infarction plus coronary death, the relative risk was 0.73. Major cardiovascular events were reduced (relative risk, 0.68). For deaths from all causes, the relative risk was 0.87.

CONCLUSION

In persons aged 60 years and over with isolated systolic hypertension, antihypertensive stepped-care drug treatment with low-dose chlorthalidone as step 1 medication reduced the incidence of total stroke by 36%, with 5-year absolute benefit of 30 events per 1000 participants. Major cardiovascular events were reduced, with 5-year absolute benefit of 55 events per 1000.

The nature of adverse events in hospitalized patients. Results of the Harvard Medical Practice Study II

BACKGROUND

In a sample of 30,195 randomly selected hospital records, we identified 1133 patients (3.7 percent) with disabling injuries caused by medical treatment. We report here an analysis of these adverse events and their relation to error, negligence, and disability.

METHODS

Two physician-reviewers independently identified the adverse events and evaluated them with respect to negligence, errors in management, and extent of disability. One of the authors classified each event according to type of injury. We tested the significance of differences in rates of negligence and disability among categories with at least 30 adverse events.

RESULTS

Drug complications were the most common type of adverse event (19 percent), followed by wound infections (14 percent) and technical complications (13 percent). Nearly half the adverse events (48 percent) were associated with an operation. Adverse events during surgery were less likely to be caused by negligence (17 percent) than nonsurgical ones (37 percent). The proportion of adverse events due to negligence was highest for diagnostic mishaps (75 percent), noninvasive therapeutic mishaps ("errors of omission") (77 percent), and events occurring in the emergency room (70 percent). Errors in management were identified for 58 percent of the adverse events, among which nearly half were attributed to negligence.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the prevention of many adverse events must await improvements in medical knowledge, the high proportion that are due to management errors suggests that many others are potentially preventable now. Reducing the incidence of these events will require identifying their causes and developing methods to prevent error or reduce its effects.

The natural history of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The natural history of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the community remains unknown. We sought to determine survival and liver-related morbidity among community-based NAFLD patients.

METHODS

Four hundred twenty patients diagnosed with NAFLD in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1980 and 2000 were identified using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Medical records were reviewed to confirm diagnosis and determine outcomes up to 2003. Overall survival was compared with the general Minnesota population of the same age and sex.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age at diagnosis was 49 (15) years; 231 (49%) were male. Mean follow-up was 7.6 (4.0) years (range, 0.1-23.5) culminating in 3192 person-years follow-up. Overall, 53 of 420 (12.6%) patients died. Survival was lower than the expected survival for the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.003-1.76; P = .03). Higher mortality was associated with age (hazard ratio per decade, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.7), impaired fasting glucose (hazard ratio, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.3-5.2), and cirrhosis (hazard ratio, 3.1, 95% CI, 1.2-7.8). Liver disease was the third leading cause of death (as compared with the thirteenth leading cause of death in the general Minnesota population), occurring in 7 (1.7%) subjects. Twenty-one (5%) patients were diagnosed with cirrhosis, and 13 (3.1%) developed liver-related complications, including 1 requiring transplantation and 2 developing hepatocellular carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among community-diagnosed NAFLD patients is higher than the general population and is associated with older age, impaired fasting glucose, and cirrhosis. Liver-related death is a leading cause of mortality, although the absolute risk is low.

Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease

BACKGROUND

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been in the context of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. Our aim was to estimate the contributions of selected major risk factors to global and regional burden of disease in a unified framework.

METHODS

For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups undertook a comprehensive review of published work and other sources--eg, government reports and international databases--to obtain data on the prevalence of risk factor exposure and hazard size for 14 epidemiological regions of the world. Population attributable fractions were estimated by applying the potential impact fraction relation, and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the global burden of disease (GBD) database.

FINDINGS

Childhood and maternal underweight (138 million disability adjusted life years [DALY], 9.5%), unsafe sex (92 million DALY, 6.3%), high blood pressure (64 million DALY, 4.4%), tobacco (59 million DALY, 4.1%), and alcohol (58 million DALY, 4.0%) were the leading causes of global burden of disease. In the poorest regions of the world, childhood and maternal underweight, unsafe sex, unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene, indoor smoke from solid fuels, and various micronutrient deficiencies were major contributors to loss of healthy life. In both developing and developed regions, alcohol, tobacco, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol were major causes of disease burden.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial proportions of global disease burden are attributable to these major risks, to an extent greater than previously estimated. Developing countries suffer most or all of the burden due to many of the leading risks. Strategies that target these known risks can provide substantial and underestimated public-health gains.

Mortality and morbidity in patients receiving encainide, flecainide, or placebo. The Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

In the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial, designed to test the hypothesis that suppression of ventricular ectopy after a myocardial infarction reduces the incidence of sudden death, patients in whom ventricular ectopy could be suppressed with encainide, flecainide, or moricizine were randomly assigned to receive either active drug or placebo. The use of encainide and flecainide was discontinued because of excess mortality. We examined the mortality and morbidity after randomization to encainide or flecainide or their respective placebo.

RESULTS

Of 1498 patients, 857 were assigned to receive encainide or its placebo (432 to active drug and 425 to placebo) and 641 were assigned to receive flecainide or its placebo (323 to active drug and 318 to placebo). After a mean follow-up of 10 months, 89 patients had died: 59 of arrhythmia (43 receiving drug vs. 16 receiving placebo; P = 0.0004), 22 of nonarrhythmic cardiac causes (17 receiving drug vs. 5 receiving placebo; P = 0.01), and 8 of noncardiac causes (3 receiving drug vs. 5 receiving placebo). Almost all cardiac deaths not due to arrhythmia were attributed to acute myocardial infarction with shock (11 patients receiving drug and 3 receiving placebo) or to chronic congestive heart failure (4 receiving drug and 2 receiving placebo). There were no differences between the patients receiving active drug and those receiving placebo in the incidence of nonlethal disqualifying ventricular tachycardia, proarrhythmia, syncope, need for a permanent pacemaker, congestive heart failure, recurrent myocardial infarction, angina, or need for coronary-artery bypass grafting or angioplasty.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an excess of deaths due to arrhythmia and deaths due to shock after acute recurrent myocardial infarction in patients treated with encainide or flecainide. Nonlethal events, however, were equally distributed between the active-drug and placebo groups. The mechanisms underlying the excess mortality during treatment with encainide or flecainide remain unknown.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health in 22 European countries

BACKGROUND

Comparisons among countries can help to identify opportunities for the reduction of inequalities in health. We compared the magnitude of inequalities in mortality and self-assessed health among 22 countries in all parts of Europe.

METHODS

We obtained data on mortality according to education level and occupational class from census-based mortality studies. Deaths were classified according to cause, including common causes, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer; causes related to smoking; causes related to alcohol use; and causes amenable to medical intervention, such as tuberculosis and hypertension. Data on self-assessed health, smoking, and obesity according to education and income were obtained from health or multipurpose surveys. For each country, the association between socioeconomic status and health outcomes was measured with the use of regression-based inequality indexes.

RESULTS

In almost all countries, the rates of death and poorer self-assessments of health were substantially higher in groups of lower socioeconomic status, but the magnitude of the inequalities between groups of higher and lower socioeconomic status was much larger in some countries than in others. Inequalities in mortality were small in some southern European countries and very large in most countries in the eastern and Baltic regions. These variations among countries appeared to be attributable in part to causes of death related to smoking or alcohol use or amenable to medical intervention. The magnitude of inequalities in self-assessed health also varied substantially among countries, but in a different pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed variation across Europe in the magnitude of inequalities in health associated with socioeconomic status. These inequalities might be reduced by improving educational opportunities, income distribution, health-related behavior, or access to health care.

The influence of finasteride on the development of prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Androgens are involved in the development of prostate cancer. Finasteride, an inhibitor of 5alpha-reductase, inhibits the conversion of testosterone to dihydrotestosterone, the primary androgen in the prostate, and may reduce the risk of prostate cancer.

METHODS

In the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial, we randomly assigned 18,882 men 55 years of age or older with a normal digital rectal examination and a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of 3.0 ng per milliliter or lower to treatment with finasteride (5 mg per day) or placebo for seven years. Prostate biopsy was recommended if the annual PSA level, adjusted for the effect of finasteride, exceeded 4.0 ng per milliliter or if the digital rectal examination was abnormal. It was anticipated that 60 percent of participants would have prostate cancer diagnosed during the study or would undergo biopsy at the end of the study. The primary end point was the prevalence of prostate cancer during the seven years of the study.

RESULTS

Prostate cancer was detected in 803 of the 4368 men in the finasteride group who had data for the final analysis (18.4 percent) and 1147 of the 4692 men in the placebo group who had such data (24.4 percent), for a 24.8 percent reduction in prevalence over the seven-year period (95 percent confidence interval, 18.6 to 30.6 percent; P<0.001). Tumors of Gleason grade 7, 8, 9, or 10 were more common in the finasteride group (280 of 757 tumors [37.0 percent], or 6.4 percent of the 4368 men included in the final analysis) than in the placebo group (237 of 1068 tumors [22.2 percent], P<0.001 for the comparison between groups; or 5.1 percent of the 4692 men included in the final analysis, P=0.005 for the comparison between groups). Sexual side effects were more common in finasteride-treated men, whereas urinary symptoms were more common in men receiving placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

Finasteride prevents or delays the appearance of prostate cancer, but this possible benefit and a reduced risk of urinary problems must be weighed against sexual side effects and the increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer.

Mineral metabolism, mortality, and morbidity in maintenance hemodialysis

Mortality rates in ESRD are unacceptably high. Disorders of mineral metabolism (hyperphosphatemia, hypercalcemia, and secondary hyperparathyroidism) are potentially modifiable. For determining associations among disorders of mineral metabolism, mortality, and morbidity in hemodialysis patients, data on 40,538 hemodialysis patients with at least one determination of serum phosphorus and calcium during the last 3 mo of 1997 were analyzed. Unadjusted, case mix-adjusted, and multivariable-adjusted relative risks of death were calculated for categories of serum phosphorus, calcium, calcium x phosphorus product, and intact parathyroid hormone (PTH) using proportional hazards regression. Also determined was whether disorders of mineral metabolism were associated with all-cause, cardiovascular, infection-related, fracture-related, and vascular access-related hospitalization. After adjustment for case mix and laboratory variables, serum phosphorus concentrations >5.0 mg/dl were associated with an increased relative risk of death (1.07, 1.25, 1.43, 1.67, and 2.02 for serum phosphorus 5.0 to 6.0, 6.0 to 7.0, 7.0 to 8.0, 8.0 to 9.0, and >/=9.0 mg/dl). Higher adjusted serum calcium concentrations were also associated with an increased risk of death, even when examined within narrow ranges of serum phosphorus. Moderate to severe hyperparathyroidism (PTH concentrations >/=600 pg/ml) was associated with an increase in the relative risk of death, whereas more modest increases in PTH were not. When examined collectively, the population attributable risk percentage for disorders of mineral metabolism was 17.5%, owing largely to the high prevalence of hyperphosphatemia. Hyperphosphatemia and hyperparathyroidism were significantly associated with all-cause, cardiovascular, and fracture-related hospitalization. Disorders of mineral metabolism are independently associated with mortality and morbidity associated with cardiovascular disease and fracture in hemodialysis patients.

Randomised double-blind comparison of placebo and active treatment for older patients with isolated systolic hypertension. The Systolic Hypertension in Europe (Syst-Eur) Trial Investigators

BACKGROUND

Isolated systolic hypertension occurs in about 15% of people aged 60 years or older. In 1989, the European Working Party on High Blood Pressure in the Elderly investigated whether active treatment could reduce cardiovascular complications of isolated systolic hypertension. Fatal and non-fatal stroke combined was the primary endpoint.

METHODS

All patients (> 60 years) were initially started on masked placebo. At three run-in visits 1 month apart, their average sitting systolic blood pressure was 160-219 mm Hg with a diastolic blood pressure lower than 95 mm Hg. After stratification for centre, sex, and previous cardiovascular complications, 4695 patients were randomly assigned to nitrendipine 10-40 mg daily, with the possible addition of enalapril 5-20 mg daily and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5-25.0 mg daily, or matching placebos. Patients withdrawing from double-blind treatment were still followed up. We compared occurrence of major endpoints by intention to treat.

FINDINGS

At a median of 2 years' follow-up, sitting systolic and diastolic blood pressures had fallen by 13 mm Hg and 2 mm Hg in the placebo group (n = 2297) and by 23 mm Hg and 7 mm Hg in the active treatment group (n = 2398). The between-group differences were systolic 10.1 mm Hg (95% CI 8.8-11.4) and diastolic, 4.5 mm Hg (3.9-5.1). Active treatment reduced the total rate of stroke from 13.7 to 7.9 endpoints per 1000 patient-years (42% reduction; p = 0.003). Non-fatal stroke decreased by 44% (p = 0.007). In the active treatment group, all fatal and non-fatal cardiac endpoints, including sudden death, declined by 26% (p = 0.03). Non-fatal cardiac endpoints decreased by 33% (p = 0.03) and all fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular endpoints by 31% (p < 0.001). Cardiovascular mortality was slightly lower on active treatment (-27%, p = 0.07), but all-cause mortality was not influenced (-14%; p = 0.22).

INTERPRETATION

Among elderly patients with isolated systolic hypertension, antihypertensive drug treatment starting with nitrendipine reduces the rate of cardiovascular complications. Treatment of 1000 patients for 5 years with this type of regimen may prevent 29 strokes or 53 major cardiovascular endpoints.

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors

IMPORTANCE

Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy.

OBJECTIVES

To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

DESIGN

We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages.

RESULTS

US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

Wegener granulomatosis: an analysis of 158 patients

OBJECTIVE

To prospectively study the clinical features, pathophysiology, treatment and prognosis of Wegener granulomatosis.

DESIGN

Of the 180 patients with Wegener granulomatosis referred to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases during the past 24 years, 158 have been followed for 6 months to 24 years (a total of 1229 patient-years).

MEASUREMENTS

Characteristics of clinical presentation, surgical pathology, course of illness, laboratory and radiographic findings, and the results of medical and surgical treatment have been recorded in a computer-based information retrieval system.

SETTING

The Warren Magnuson Clinical Center of the National Institutes of Health.

MAIN RESULTS

Men and women were equally represented; 97% of patients were white, and 85% were more than 19 years of age. The mean period of follow-up was 8 years. One hundred and thirty-three patients (84%) received "standard" therapy with daily low-dose cyclophosphamide and glucocorticoids. Eight (5.0%) received only low-dose cyclophosphamide. Six (4.0%) never received cyclophosphamide and were treated with other cytotoxic agents and glucocorticoids. Ten patients (6.0%) were treated with only glucocorticoids. Ninety-one percent of patients experienced marked improvement, and 75% achieved complete remission. Fifty percent of remissions were associated with one or more relapses. Of 99 patients followed for greater than 5 years, 44% had remissions of greater than 5 years duration. Thirteen percent of patients died of Wegener granulomatosis, treatment-related causes, or both. Almost all patients had serious morbidity from irreversible features of their disease (86%) or side effects of treatment (42%).

CONCLUSIONS

The course of Wegener granulomatosis has been dramatically improved by daily treatment with cyclophosphamide and glucocorticoids. Nonetheless, disease- and treatment-related morbidity is often profound. Alternative forms of therapy have not yet achieved the high rates of remission induction and successful maintenance that have been reported with daily cyclophosphamide treatment. Despite continued therapeutic success with cyclophosphamide, our long-term follow-up of patients with Wegener granulomatosis has led to increasing concerns about toxicity resulting from prolonged cyclophosphamide therapy and has encouraged investigation of other therapeutic regimens.

Influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States

CONTEXT

Respiratory viral infections are responsible for a large number of hospitalizations in the United States each year.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate annual influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States by hospital discharge category, discharge type, and age group.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) data and World Health Organization Collaborating Laboratories influenza surveillance data were used to estimate annual average numbers of hospitalizations associated with the circulation of influenza viruses from the 1979-1980 through the 2000-2001 seasons in the United States using age-specific Poisson regression models.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated influenza-associated hospitalizations for primary and any listed pneumonia and influenza and respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Annual averages of 94,735 (range, 18,908-193,561) primary and 133,900 (range, 30,757-271,529) any listed pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus infections. Annual averages of 226,54 (range, 54,523-430,960) primary and 294,128 (range, 86,494-544,909) any listed respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus infections. Persons 85 years or older had the highest rates of influenza-associated primary respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations (1194.9 per 100,000 persons). Children younger than 5 years (107.9 primary respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations per 100,000 persons) had rates similar to persons aged 50 through 64 years. Estimated rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations were highest during seasons in which A(H3N2) viruses predominated, followed by B and A(H1N1) seasons. After adjusting for the length of each influenza season, influenza-associated primary pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations increased over time among the elderly. There were no significant increases in influenza-associated primary respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations after adjusting for the length of the influenza season.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant numbers of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States occur among the elderly, and the numbers of these hospitalizations have increased substantially over the last 2 decades due in part to the aging of the population. Children younger than 5 years had rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations similar to those among individuals aged 50 through 64 years. These findings highlight the need for improved influenza prevention efforts for both young and older US residents.

Indications for fibrinolytic therapy in suspected acute myocardial infarction: collaborative overview of early mortality and major morbidity results from all randomised trials of more than 1000 patients. Fibrinolytic Therapy Trialists' (FTT) Collaborative Group

Large randomised trials have demonstrated that fibrinolytic therapy can reduce mortality in patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The indications for, and contraindications to, this treatment in some categories of patient are disputed, examples being late presentation, elderly patients, and those in cardiogenic shock. This overview aims to help resolve some of the remaining uncertainties. From all trials of fibrinolytic therapy versus control that randomised more than 1000 patients with suspected AMI, information was sought and checked on deaths during the first 5 weeks and on major adverse events occurring during hospitalisation. The nine trials included 58,600 patients, among whom 6177 (10.5%) deaths, 564 (1.0%) strokes, and 436 (0.7%) major non-cerebral bleeds were reported. Fibrinolytic therapy was associated with an excess of deaths during days 0-1 (especially among patients presenting more than 12 h after symptom onset, and in the elderly) but this was outweighed by a much larger benefit during days 2-35. This "early hazard" should not obscure the very clear overall survival advantage that is produced by fibrinolytic therapy. Benefit was observed among patients presenting with ST elevation or bundle-branch block (BBB)--irrespective of age, sex, blood pressure, heart rate, or previous history of myocardial infarction or diabetes--and was greater the earlier treatment began. Among the 45,000 patients presenting with ST elevation or BBB the relation between benefit and delay from symptom onset indicated highly significant absolute mortality reductions of about 30 per 1000 for those presenting within 0-6 h and of about 20 per 1000 for those presenting 7-12 h from onset, and a statistically uncertain benefit of about 10 per 1000 for those presenting at 13-18 h (with more randomised evidence needed in this latter group to assess reliably the net effects of treatment). Fibrinolytic therapy was associated with about 4 extra strokes per 1000 during days 0-1: of these, 2 were associated with early death and so were already accounted for in the overall mortality reduction, 1 was moderately or severely disabling, and 1 was not. This overview indicates that fibrinolytic therapy is beneficial in a much wider range of patients than is currently given such treatment routinely.