Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A Structured Tumor-Immune Microenvironment in Triple Negative Breast Cancer Revealed by Multiplexed Ion Beam Imaging

The immune system is critical in modulating cancer progression, but knowledge of immune composition, phenotype, and interactions with tumor is limited. We used multiplexed ion beam imaging by time-of-flight (MIBI-TOF) to simultaneously quantify in situ expression of 36 proteins covering identity, function, and immune regulation at sub-cellular resolution in 41 triple-negative breast cancer patients. Multi-step processing, including deep-learning-based segmentation, revealed variability in the composition of tumor-immune populations across individuals, reconciled by overall immune infiltration and enriched co-occurrence of immune subpopulations and checkpoint expression. Spatial enrichment analysis showed immune mixed and compartmentalized tumors, coinciding with expression of PD1, PD-L1, and IDO in a cell-type- and location-specific manner. Ordered immune structures along the tumor-immune border were associated with compartmentalization and linked to survival. These data demonstrate organization in the tumor-immune microenvironment that is structured in cellular composition, spatial arrangement, and regulatory-protein expression and provide a framework to apply multiplexed imaging to immune oncology.

SpaGCN: Integrating gene expression, spatial location and histology to identify spatial domains and spatially variable genes by graph convolutional network

Recent advances in spatially resolved transcriptomics (SRT) technologies have enabled comprehensive characterization of gene expression patterns in the context of tissue microenvironment. To elucidate spatial gene expression variation, we present SpaGCN, a graph convolutional network approach that integrates gene expression, spatial location and histology in SRT data analysis. Through graph convolution, SpaGCN aggregates gene expression of each spot from its neighboring spots, which enables the identification of spatial domains with coherent expression and histology. The subsequent domain guided differential expression (DE) analysis then detects genes with enriched expression patterns in the identified domains. Analyzing seven SRT datasets using SpaGCN, we show it can detect genes with much more enriched spatial expression patterns than competing methods. Furthermore, genes detected by SpaGCN are transferrable and can be utilized to study spatial variation of gene expression in other datasets. SpaGCN is computationally fast, platform independent, making it a desirable tool for diverse SRT studies.

Disaggregating census data for population mapping using random forests with remotely-sensed and ancillary data

High resolution, contemporary data on human population distributions are vital for measuring impacts of population growth, monitoring human-environment interactions and for planning and policy development. Many methods are used to disaggregate census data and predict population densities for finer scale, gridded population data sets. We present a new semi-automated dasymetric modeling approach that incorporates detailed census and ancillary data in a flexible, "Random Forest" estimation technique. We outline the combination of widely available, remotely-sensed and geospatial data that contribute to the modeled dasymetric weights and then use the Random Forest model to generate a gridded prediction of population density at ~100 m spatial resolution. This prediction layer is then used as the weighting surface to perform dasymetric redistribution of the census counts at a country level. As a case study we compare the new algorithm and its products for three countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, and Kenya) with other common gridded population data production methodologies. We discuss the advantages of the new method and increases over the accuracy and flexibility of those previous approaches. Finally, we outline how this algorithm will be extended to provide freely-available gridded population data sets for Africa, Asia and Latin America.

GIS-based spatial modeling of COVID-19 incidence rate in the continental United States

During the first 90 days of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States, over 675,000 confirmed cases of the disease have been reported, posing unprecedented socioeconomic burden to the country. Due to inadequate research on geographic modeling of COVID-19, we investigated county-level variations of disease incidence across the continental United States. We compiled a geodatabase of 35 environmental, socioeconomic, topographic, and demographic variables that could explain the spatial variability of disease incidence. Further, we employed spatial lag and spatial error models to investigate spatial dependence and geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multiscale GWR (MGWR) models to locally examine spatial non-stationarity. The results suggested that even though incorporating spatial autocorrelation could significantly improve the performance of the global ordinary least square model, these models still represent a significantly poor performance compared to the local models. Moreover, MGWR could explain the highest variations (adj. R2: 68.1%) with the lowest AICc compared to the others. Mapping the effects of significant explanatory variables (i.e., income inequality, median household income, the proportion of black females, and the proportion of nurse practitioners) on spatial variability of COVID-19 incidence rates using MGWR could provide useful insights to policymakers for targeted interventions.

Microclimatic challenges in global change biology

Despite decades of work on climate change biology, the scientific community remains uncertain about where and when most species distributions will respond to altered climates. A major barrier is the spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled. Using a meta-analysis of published literature, we show that grid lengths in species distribution models are, on average, ca. 10 000-fold larger than the animals they study, and ca. 1000-fold larger than the plants they study. And the gap is even worse than these ratios indicate, as most work has focused on organisms that are significantly biased toward large size. This mismatch is problematic because organisms do not experience climate on coarse scales. Rather, they live in microclimates, which can be highly heterogeneous and strongly divergent from surrounding macroclimates. Bridging the spatial gap should be a high priority for research and will require gathering climate data at finer scales, developing better methods for downscaling environmental data to microclimates, and improving our statistical understanding of variation at finer scales. Interdisciplinary collaborations (including ecologists, engineers, climatologists, meteorologists, statisticians, and geographers) will be key to bridging the gap, and ultimately to providing scientifically grounded data and recommendations to conservation biologists and policy makers.

Pollution characteristics, risk assessment, and source apportionment of heavy metals in road dust in Beijing, China

To analyze the spatial distribution patterns, risks, and sources of heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Fe), 36 road dust samples were collected from an urbanized area of Beijing in June 2016. The mean concentration of most metals, except As and Mn, exceeded their corresponding background values, with the mean concentration of Cd being 8 times that of its background. Spatially, for most heavy metals, except As and Mn, the high concentration areas were mainly within the 5th ring road, especially the northern area. The geo-accumulation index of Cd and Cu indicated moderate contamination at many sites. The entire study area was prone to potential ecological risks, with higher risks within the 4th ring road. Cd caused high potential ecological risk at most sites. According to the health risk assessment results, the non-carcinogenic risks that human beings suffered from heavy metals were insignificant. However, the carcinogenic risks due to Ni and Cr exceeded the acceptable level. Based on the source apportionment using positive matrix factorization, four factors were defined for the heavy metals. Factor 1, which was traffic-related exhaust, accounted for 34.47% of the concentration of heavy metals. The contributions of Factors 2 and 3 were approximately 25% each. Factor 2 was potentially related to coal combustion, while Factor 3 could be related to the manufacture and use of metal components. Factor 4, which could be related to the use of pesticides, fertilizers, and medical devices, accounted for 14.88%, which was the lowest.

OpenCell: Endogenous tagging for the cartography of human cellular organization

Elucidating the wiring diagram of the human cell is a central goal of the postgenomic era. We combined genome engineering, confocal live-cell imaging, mass spectrometry, and data science to systematically map the localization and interactions of human proteins. Our approach provides a data-driven description of the molecular and spatial networks that organize the proteome. Unsupervised clustering of these networks delineates functional communities that facilitate biological discovery. We found that remarkably precise functional information can be derived from protein localization patterns, which often contain enough information to identify molecular interactions, and that RNA binding proteins form a specific subgroup defined by unique interaction and localization properties. Paired with a fully interactive website (opencell.czbiohub.org), our work constitutes a resource for the quantitative cartography of human cellular organization.

Generative modeling of brain maps with spatial autocorrelation

Studies of large-scale brain organization have revealed interesting relationships between spatial gradients in brain maps across multiple modalities. Evaluating the significance of these findings requires establishing statistical expectations under a null hypothesis of interest. Through generative modeling of synthetic data that instantiate a specific null hypothesis, quantitative benchmarks can be derived for arbitrarily complex statistical measures. Here, we present a generative null model, provided as an open-access software platform, that generates surrogate maps with spatial autocorrelation (SA) matched to SA of a target brain map. SA is a prominent and ubiquitous property of brain maps that violates assumptions of independence in conventional statistical tests. Our method can simulate surrogate brain maps, constrained by empirical data, that preserve the SA of cortical, subcortical, parcellated, and dense brain maps. We characterize how SA impacts p-values in pairwise brain map comparisons. Furthermore, we demonstrate how SA-preserving surrogate maps can be used in gene set enrichment analyses to test hypotheses of interest related to brain map topography. Our findings demonstrate the utility of SA-preserving surrogate maps for hypothesis testing in complex statistical analyses, and underscore the need to disambiguate meaningful relationships from chance associations in studies of large-scale brain organization.

Integrated GIS and multivariate statistical analysis for regional scale assessment of heavy metal soil contamination: A critical review

Heavy metal soil contamination is associated with potential toxicity to humans or ecotoxicity. Scholars have increasingly used a combination of geographical information science (GIS) with geostatistical and multivariate statistical analysis techniques to examine the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils at a regional scale. A review of such studies showed that most soil sampling programs were based on grid patterns and composite sampling methodologies. Many programs intended to characterize various soil types and land use types. The most often used sampling depth intervals were 0-0.10 m, or 0-0.20 m, below surface; and the sampling densities used ranged from 0.0004 to 6.1 samples per km², with a median of 0.4 samples per km². The most widely used spatial interpolators were inverse distance weighted interpolation and ordinary kriging; and the most often used multivariate statistical analysis techniques were principal component analysis and cluster analysis. The review also identified several determining and correlating factors in heavy metal distribution in soils, including soil type, soil pH, soil organic matter, land use type, Fe, Al, and heavy metal concentrations. The major natural and anthropogenic sources of heavy metals were found to derive from lithogenic origin, roadway and transportation, atmospheric deposition, wastewater and runoff from industrial and mining facilities, fertilizer application, livestock manure, and sewage sludge. This review argues that the full potential of integrated GIS and multivariate statistical analysis for assessing heavy metal distribution in soils on a regional scale has not yet been fully realized. It is proposed that future research be conducted to map multivariate results in GIS to pinpoint specific anthropogenic sources, to analyze temporal trends in addition to spatial patterns, to optimize modeling parameters, and to expand the use of different multivariate analysis tools beyond principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA).

Access to emergency hospital care provided by the public sector in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015: a geocoded inventory and spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Timely access to emergency care can substantially reduce mortality. International benchmarks for access to emergency hospital care have been established to guide ambitions for universal health care by 2030. However, no Pan-African database of where hospitals are located exists; therefore, we aimed to complete a geocoded inventory of hospital services in Africa in relation to how populations might access these services in 2015, with focus on women of child bearing age.

METHODS

We assembled a geocoded inventory of public hospitals across 48 countries and islands of sub-Saharan Africa, including Zanzibar, using data from various sources. We only included public hospitals with emergency services that were managed by governments at national or local levels and faith-based or non-governmental organisations. For hospital listings without geographical coordinates, we geocoded each facility using Microsoft Encarta (version 2009), Google Earth (version 7.3), Geonames, Fallingrain, OpenStreetMap, and other national digital gazetteers. We obtained estimates for total population and women of child bearing age (15-49 years) at a 1 km2 spatial resolution from the WorldPop database for 2015. Additionally, we assembled road network data from Google Map Maker Project and OpenStreetMap using ArcMap (version 10.5). We then combined the road network and the population locations to form a travel impedance surface. Subsequently, we formulated a cost distance algorithm based on the location of public hospitals and the travel impedance surface in AccessMod (version 5) to compute the proportion of populations living within a combined walking and motorised travel time of 2 h to emergency hospital services.

FINDINGS

We consulted 100 databases from 48 sub-Saharan countries and islands, including Zanzibar, and identified 4908 public hospitals. 2701 hospitals had either full or partial information about their geographical coordinates. We estimated that 287 282 013 (29·0%) people and 64 495 526 (28·2%) women of child bearing age are located more than 2-h travel time from the nearest hospital. Marked differences were observed within and between countries, ranging from less than 25% of the population within 2-h travel time of a public hospital in South Sudan to more than 90% in Nigeria, Kenya, Cape Verde, Swaziland, South Africa, Burundi, Comoros, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zanzibar. Only 16 countries reached the international benchmark of more than 80% of their populations living within a 2-h travel time of the nearest hospital.

INTERPRETATION

Physical access to emergency hospital care provided by the public sector in Africa remains poor and varies substantially within and between countries. Innovative targeting of emergency care services is necessary to reduce these inequities. This study provides the first spatial census of public hospital services in Africa.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust and the UK Department for International Development.

Uncovering patterns of inter-urban trip and spatial interaction from social media check-in data

The article revisits spatial interaction and distance decay from the perspective of human mobility patterns and spatially-embedded networks based on an empirical data set. We extract nationwide inter-urban movements in China from a check-in data set that covers half a million individuals within 370 cities to analyze the underlying patterns of trips and spatial interactions. By fitting the gravity model, we find that the observed spatial interactions are governed by a power law distance decay effect. The obtained gravity model also closely reproduces the exponential trip displacement distribution. The movement of an individual, however, may not obey the same distance decay effect, leading to an ecological fallacy. We also construct a spatial network where the edge weights denote the interaction strengths. The communities detected from the network are spatially cohesive and roughly consistent with province boundaries. We attribute this pattern to different distance decay parameters between intra-province and inter-province trips.

Infection-related microcephaly after the 2015 and 2016 Zika virus outbreaks in Brazil: a surveillance-based analysis

BACKGROUND

On Nov 11, 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health declared a Public Health Emergency of National Concern in response to an increased number of microcephaly cases, possibly related to previous Zika virus outbreaks. We describe the course of the dual epidemics of the Zika virus infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in Brazil up to Nov 12, 2016, the first anniversary of this declaration.

METHODS

We used secondary data for Zika virus and microcephaly cases obtained through the Brazilian Ministry of Health's surveillance systems from Jan 1, 2015, to Nov 12, 2016. We deemed possible Zika virus infections during pregnancy as all suspected cases of Zika virus disease and all initially suspected, but later discarded, cases of dengue and chikungunya fever. We defined confirmed infection-related microcephaly in liveborn infants as the presence of a head circumference of at least 2 SDs below the mean for their age and sex, accompanied by diagnostic imaging consistent with an infectious cause, or laboratory, clinical, or epidemiological results positive for Zika virus or STORCH (infectious agents known to cause congenital infection, mainly syphilis, toxoplasmosis, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex virus). We excluded cases of congenital anomalies or death without microcephaly. We analyse the spatial clustering of these diseases in Brazil to obtain the kernel density estimation.

FINDINGS

Two distinct waves of possible Zika virus infection extended across all Brazilian regions in 2015 and 2016. 1 673 272 notified cases were reported, of which 41 473 (2·5%) were in pregnant women. During this period, 1950 cases of infection-related microcephaly were confirmed. Most cases (1373 [70·4%]) occurred in the northeast region after the first wave of Zika virus infection, with peak monthly occurrence estimated at 49·9 cases per 10 000 livebirths. After a major, well documented second wave of Zika virus infection in all regions of Brazil from September, 2015, to September, 2016, occurrence of microcephaly was much lower than that following the first wave of Zika virus infection, reaching epidemic levels in all but the south of Brazil, with estimated monthly peaks varying from 3·2 cases to 15 cases per 10 000 livebirths.

INTERPRETATION

The distribution of infection-related microcephaly after Zika virus outbreaks has varied across time and Brazilian regions. Reasons for these apparent differences remain to be elucidated.

FUNDING

None.

Association of Racial/Ethnic Segregation With Treatment Capacity for Opioid Use Disorder in Counties in the United States

Importance

Treatment with methadone or buprenorphine is the current standard of care for opioid use disorder. Given the paucity of research identifying which patients will respond best to which medication, both medications should be accessible to all patients so that patients can determine which works best for them. However, given differences in the historical contexts of their initial implementation, access to each of these medications may vary along racial/ethnic lines.

Objective

To examine the extent to which capacity to provide methadone and buprenorphine vary with measures of racial/ethnic segregation.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study included all counties and county-equivalent divisions in the US in 2016. Data on racial/ethnic population distribution were derived from the American Community Survey, and data on locations of facilities providing methadone and buprenorphine were obtained from Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration databases. Data were analyzed from August 22, 2018, to September 11, 2019.

Exposures

Two county-level measures of racial/ethnic segregation, including dissimilarity (representing the proportion of African American or Hispanic/Latino residents who would need to move census tracts to achieve a uniform spatial distribution of the population by race/ethnicity) and interaction (representing the probability that an African American or Hispanic/Latino resident will interact with a white resident and vice versa, assuming random mixing across census tracts).

Main Outcomes and Measures

County-level capacity to provide methadone or buprenorphine, defined as the number of facilities providing a medication per 100 000 population.

Results

Among 3142 US counties, there were 1698 facilities providing methadone (0.6 facilities per 100 000 population) and 18 868 facilities providing buprenorphine (5.9 facilities per 100 000 population). Each 1% decrease in probability of interaction of an African American resident with a white resident was associated with 0.6 more facilities providing methadone per 100 000 population. Similarly, each 1% decrease in probability of interaction of a Hispanic/Latino resident with a white resident was associated with 0.3 more facilities providing methadone per 100 000 population. Each 1% decrease in the probability of interaction of a white resident with an African American resident was associated with 8.17 more facilities providing buprenorphine per 100 000 population. Similarly, each 1% decrease in the probability of interaction of a white resident with a Hispanic/Latino resident was associated with 1.61 more facilities providing buprenorphine per 100 000 population.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that the racial/ethnic composition of a community was associated with which medications residents would likely be able to access when seeking treatment for opioid use disorder. Reforms to existing regulations governing the provisions of these medications are needed to ensure that both medications are equally accessible to all.

The changing risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection in Africa: 2000-10: a spatial and temporal analysis of transmission intensity

BACKGROUND

Over a decade ago, the Roll Back Malaria Partnership was launched, and since then there has been unprecedented investment in malaria control. We examined the change in malaria transmission intensity during the period 2000-10 in Africa.

METHODS

We assembled a geocoded and community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate standardised to the age group 2-10 years (PfPR2-10) database from across 49 endemic countries and territories in Africa from surveys undertaken since 1980. The data were used within a Bayesian space-time geostatistical framework to predict PfPR2-10 in 2000 and 2010 at a 1 × 1 km spatial resolution. Population distribution maps at the same spatial resolution were used to compute populations at risk by endemicity class and estimate population-adjusted PfPR2-10 (PAPfPR2-10) for each of the 44 countries for which predictions were possible for each year.

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2010, the population in hyperendemic (>50% to 75% PfPR2-10) or holoendemic (>75% PfPR2-10) areas decreased from 218·6 million (34·4%) of 635·7 million to 183·5 million (22·5%) of 815·7 million across 44 malaria-endemic countries. 280·1 million (34·3%) people lived in areas of mesoendemic transmission (>10% to 50% PfPR2-10) in 2010 compared with 178·6 million (28·1%) in 2000. Population in areas of unstable or very low transmission (<5% PfPR2-10) increased from 131·7 million people (20·7%) in 2000 to 219·0 million (26·8%) in 2010. An estimated 217·6 million people, or 26·7% of the 2010 population, lived in areas where transmission had reduced by at least one PfPR2-10 endemicity class. 40 countries showed a reduction in national mean PAPfPR2-10. Only ten countries contributed 87·1% of the population living in areas of hyperendemic or holoendemic transmission in 2010.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial reductions in malaria transmission have been achieved in endemic countries in Africa over the period 2000-10. However, 57% of the population in 2010 continued to live in areas where transmission remains moderate to intense and global support to sustain and accelerate the reduction of transmission must remain a priority.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Depth sensitivity and source-detector separations for near infrared spectroscopy based on the Colin27 brain template

Understanding the spatial and depth sensitivity of non-invasive near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) measurements to brain tissue–i.e., near-infrared neuromonitoring (NIN) – is essential for designing experiments as well as interpreting research findings. However, a thorough characterization of such sensitivity in realistic head models has remained unavailable. In this study, we conducted 3,555 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to densely cover the scalp of a well-characterized, adult male template brain (Colin27). We sought to evaluate: (i) the spatial sensitivity profile of NIRS to brain tissue as a function of source-detector separation, (ii) the NIRS sensitivity to brain tissue as a function of depth in this realistic and complex head model, and (iii) the effect of NIRS instrument sensitivity on detecting brain activation. We found that increasing the source-detector (SD) separation from 20 to 65 mm provides monotonic increases in sensitivity to brain tissue. For every 10 mm increase in SD separation (up to ∼45 mm), sensitivity to gray matter increased an additional 4%. Our analyses also demonstrate that sensitivity in depth (S) decreases exponentially, with a “rule-of-thumb” formula S = 0.75*0.85^depth. Thus, while the depth sensitivity of NIRS is not strictly limited, NIN signals in adult humans are strongly biased towards the outermost 10–15 mm of intracranial space. These general results, along with the detailed quantitation of sensitivity estimates around the head, can provide detailed guidance for interpreting the likely sources of NIRS signals, as well as help NIRS investigators design and plan better NIRS experiments, head probes and instruments.

COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused deeper structural changes in mobility networks and how such changes may affect dynamic processes on the network. Here we use movement data of mobile phone users to show that mobility in Germany has not only been reduced considerably: Lockdown measures caused substantial and long-lasting structural changes in the mobility network. We find that long-distance travel was reduced disproportionately strongly. The trimming of long-range network connectivity leads to a more local, clustered network and a moderation of the "small-world" effect. We demonstrate that these structural changes have a considerable effect on epidemic spreading processes by "flattening" the epidemic curve and delaying the spread to geographically distant regions.

Toward safer highways, application of XGBoost and SHAP for real-time accident detection and feature analysis

Detecting traffic accidents as rapidly as possible is essential for traffic safety. In this study, we use eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-a Machine Learning (ML) technique-to detect the occurrence of accidents using a set of real time data comprised of traffic, network, demographic, land use, and weather features. The data used from the Chicago metropolitan expressways was collected between December 2016 and December 2017, and it includes 244 traffic accidents and 6073 non-accident cases. In addition, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) is employed to interpret the results and analyze the importance of individual features. The results show that XGBoost can detect accidents robustly with an accuracy, detection rate, and a false alarm rate of 99 %, 79 %, and 0.16 %, respectively. Several traffic related features, especially difference of speed between 5 min before and 5 min after an accident, are found to have relatively more impact on the occurrence of accidents. Furthermore, a feature dependency analysis is conducted for three pairs of features. First, average daily traffic and speed after accidents/non-accidents time at the upstream location are interpreted jointly. Then, distance to Central Business District and residential density are analyzed. Finally, speed after accidents/non-accidents time at upstream location and speed after accidents/non-accidents time at downstream location are evaluated with respect to the model's output.

Spatial distribution of microplastics in sediments and surface waters of the southern North Sea

Microplastic pollution within the marine environment is of pressing concern globally. Accordingly, spatial monitoring of microplastic concentrations, composition and size distribution may help to identify sources and entry pathways, and hence allow initiating focused mitigation. Spatial distribution patterns of microplastics were investigated in two compartments of the southern North Sea by collecting sublittoral sediment and surface water samples from 24 stations. Large microplastics (500-5000 μm) were detected visually and identified using attenuated total reflection (ATR) Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The remaining sample was digested enzymatically, concentrated onto filters and analyzed for small microplastics (11-500 μm) using Focal Plane Array (FPA) FTIR imaging. Microplastics were detected in all samples with concentrations ranging between 2.8 and 1188.8 particles kg^-1 for sediments and 0.1-245.4 particles m^-3 for surface waters. On average 98% of microplastics were <100 μm in sediments and 86% in surface waters. The most prevalent polymer types in both compartments were polypropylene, acrylates/polyurethane/varnish, and polyamide. However, polymer composition differed significantly between sediment and surface water samples as well as between the Frisian Islands and the English Channel sites. These results show that microplastics are not evenly distributed, in neither location nor size, which is illuminating regarding the development of monitoring protocols.

Multivariate receptor models and robust geostatistics to estimate source apportionment of heavy metals in soils

Absolute principal component score/multiple linear regression (APCS/MLR) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) were applied to a dataset consisting of 10 heavy metals in 300 surface soils samples. Robust geostatistics were used to delineate and compare the factors derived from these two receptor models. Both APCS/MLR and PMF afforded three similar source factors with comparable contributions, but APCS/MLR had some negative and unidentified contributions; thus, PMF, with its optimal non-negativity results, was adopted for source apportionment. Experimental variograms for each factor from two receptor models were built using classical Matheron's and three robust estimators. The best association of experimental variograms fitted to theoretical models differed between the corresponding APCS and PMF-factors. However, kriged interpolation indicated that the corresponding APCS and PMF-factor showed similar spatial variability. Based on PMF and robust geostatistics, three sources of 10 heavy metals in Guangrao were determined. As, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Zn, and partially Hg, Pb, Cd originated from natural source. The factor grouping these heavy metals showed consistent distribution with parent material map. 43.1% of Hg and 13.2% of Pb were related to atmosphere deposition of human inputs, with high values of their association patterns being located around urban areas. 29.6% concentration of Cd was associated with agricultural practice, and the hotspot coincided with the spatial distribution of vegetable-producing soils. Overall, natural source, atmosphere deposition of human emissions, and agricultural practices, explained 81.1%, 7.3%, and 11.6% of the total of 10 heavy metals concentrations, respectively. Receptor models coupled with robust geostatistics could successfully estimate the source apportionment of heavy metals in soils.

The enduring impact of historical and structural racism on urban violence in Philadelphia

Public health approaches to crime and injury prevention are increasingly focused on the physical places and environments where violence is concentrated. In this study, our aim is to explore the association between historic place-based racial discrimination captured in the 1937 Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) map of Philadelphia and present-day violent crime and firearm injuries. The creators of the 1937 HOLC map zoned Philadelphia based in a hierarchical system wherein first-grade and green color zones were used to indicate areas desirable for government-backed mortgage lending and economic development, a second-grade or blue zone for areas that were already developed and stable, a third-grade or yellow zone for areas with evidence of decline and influx of a "low grade population," and fourth-grade or red zone for areas with dilapidated or informal housing and an "undesirable population" of predominately Black residents. We conducted an empirical spatial analysis of the concentration of firearm assaults and violent crimes in 2013 through 2014 relative to zoning in the 1937 HOLC map. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors at the time the map was created from the 1940 Census, firearm injury rates are highest in historically red-zoned areas of Philadelphia. The relationship between HOLC map zones and general violent crime is not supported after adjusting for historical Census data. This analysis extends historic perspective to the relationship between emplaced structural racism and violence, and situates the socio-ecological context in which people live at the forefront of this association.

Molecular and anatomical organization of the dorsal raphe nucleus

The dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN) is an important source of neuromodulators and has been implicated in a wide variety of behavioral and neurological disorders. The DRN is subdivided into distinct anatomical subregions comprised of multiple cell types, and its complex cellular organization has impeded efforts to investigate the distinct circuit and behavioral functions of its subdomains. Here we used single-cell RNA sequencing, in situ hybridization, anatomical tracing, and spatial correlation analysis to map the transcriptional and spatial profiles of cells from the mouse DRN. Our analysis of 39,411 single-cell transcriptomes revealed at least 18 distinct neuron subtypes and 5 serotonergic neuron subtypes with distinct molecular and anatomical properties, including a serotonergic neuron subtype that preferentially innervates the basal ganglia. Our study lays out the molecular organization of distinct serotonergic and non-serotonergic subsystems, and will facilitate the design of strategies for further dissection of the DRN and its diverse functions.

Transcriptomic and cellular decoding of regional brain vulnerability to neurogenetic disorders

Neurodevelopmental disorders have a heritable component and are associated with region specific alterations in brain anatomy. However, it is unclear how genetic risks for neurodevelopmental disorders are translated into spatially patterned brain vulnerabilities. Here, we integrated cortical neuroimaging data from patients with neurodevelopmental disorders caused by genomic copy number variations (CNVs) and gene expression data from healthy subjects. For each of the six investigated disorders, we show that spatial patterns of cortical anatomy changes in youth are correlated with cortical spatial expression of CNV genes in neurotypical adults. By transforming normative bulk-tissue cortical expression data into cell-type expression maps, we link anatomical change maps in each analysed disorder to specific cell classes as well as the CNV-region genes they express. Our findings reveal organizing principles that regulate the mapping of genetic risks onto regional brain changes in neurogenetic disorders. Our findings will enable screening for candidate molecular mechanisms from readily available neuroimaging data.