Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries

With advances in the effectiveness of treatment and disease management, the contribution of chronic comorbid diseases (comorbidities) found within the Charlson comorbidity index to mortality is likely to have changed since development of the index in 1984. The authors reevaluated the Charlson index and reassigned weights to each condition by identifying and following patients to observe mortality within 1 year after hospital discharge. They applied the updated index and weights to hospital discharge data from 6 countries and tested for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. Compared with the original Charlson weights, weights generated from the Calgary, Alberta, Canada, data (2004) were 0 for 5 comorbidities, decreased for 3 comorbidities, increased for 4 comorbidities, and did not change for 5 comorbidities. The C statistics for discriminating in-hospital mortality between the new score generated from the 12 comorbidities and the Charlson score were 0.825 (new) and 0.808 (old), respectively, in Australian data (2008), 0.828 and 0.825 in Canadian data (2008), 0.878 and 0.882 in French data (2004), 0.727 and 0.723 in Japanese data (2008), 0.831 and 0.836 in New Zealand data (2008), and 0.869 and 0.876 in Swiss data (2008). The updated index of 12 comorbidities showed good-to-excellent discrimination in predicting in-hospital mortality in data from 6 countries and may be more appropriate for use with more recent administrative data.

Prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing in the general population: the HypnoLaus study

BACKGROUND

Sleep-disordered breathing is associated with major morbidity and mortality. However, its prevalence has mainly been selectively studied in populations at risk for sleep-disordered breathing or cardiovascular diseases. Taking into account improvements in recording techniques and new criteria used to define respiratory events, we aimed to assess the prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing and associated clinical features in a large population-based sample.

METHODS

Between Sept 1, 2009, and June 30, 2013, we did a population-based study (HypnoLaus) in Lausanne, Switzerland. We invited a cohort of 3043 consecutive participants of the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study to take part. Polysomnography data from 2121 people were included in the final analysis. 1024 (48%) participants were men, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 49-68, range 40-85) and mean body-mass index (BMI) of 25·6 kg/m(2) (SD 4·1). Participants underwent complete polysomnographic recordings at home and had extensive phenotyping for diabetes, hypertension, metabolic syndrome, and depression. The primary outcome was prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing, assessed by the apnoea-hypopnoea index.

FINDINGS

The median apnoea-hypopnoea index was 6·9 events per h (IQR 2·7-14·1) in women and 14·9 per h (7·2-27·1) in men. The prevalence of moderate-to-severe sleep-disordered breathing (≥15 events per h) was 23·4% (95% CI 20·9-26·0) in women and 49·7% (46·6-52·8) in men. After multivariable adjustment, the upper quartile for the apnoea-hypopnoea index (>20·6 events per h) was associated independently with the presence of hypertension (odds ratio 1·60, 95% CI 1·14-2·26; p=0·0292 for trend across severity quartiles), diabetes (2·00, 1·05-3·99; p=0·0467), metabolic syndrome (2·80, 1·86-4·29; p<0·0001), and depression (1·92, 1·01-3·64; p=0·0292).

INTERPRETATION

The high prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing recorded in our population-based sample might be attributable to the increased sensitivity of current recording techniques and scoring criteria. These results suggest that sleep-disordered breathing is highly prevalent, with important public health outcomes, and that the definition of the disorder should be revised.

FUNDING

Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne, Lausanne University Hospital, Swiss National Science Foundation, Leenaards Foundation, GlaxoSmithKline, Ligue Pulmonaire Vaudoise.

Effectiveness of a hospital-wide programme to improve compliance with hand hygiene. Infection Control Programme

BACKGROUND

Hand hygiene prevents cross infection in hospitals, but compliance with recommended instructions is commonly poor. We attempted to promote hand hygiene by implementing a hospital-wide programme, with special emphasis on bedside, alcohol-based hand disinfection. We measured nosocomial infections in parallel.

METHODS

We monitored the overall compliance with hand hygiene during routine patient care in a teaching hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, before and during implementation of a hand-hygiene campaign. Seven hospital-wide observational surveys were done twice yearly from December, 1994, to December, 1997. Secondary outcome measures were nosocomial infection rates, attack rates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and consumption of handrub disinfectant.

FINDINGS

We observed more than 20,000 opportunities for hand hygiene. Compliance improved progressively from 48% in 1994, to 66% in 1997 (p<0.001). Although recourse to handwashing with soap and water remained stable, frequency of hand disinfection substantially increased during the study period (p<0.001). This result was unchanged after adjustment for known risk factors of poor adherence. Hand hygiene improved significantly among nurses and nursing assistants, but remained poor among doctors. During the same period, overall nosocomial infection decreased (prevalence of 16.9% in 1994 to 9.9% in 1998; p=0.04), MRSA transmission rates decreased (2.16 to 0.93 episodes per 10,000 patient-days; p<0.001), and the consumption of alcohol-based handrub solution increased from 3.5 to 15.4 L per 1000 patient-days between 1993 and 1998 (p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

The campaign produced a sustained improvement in compliance with hand hygiene, coinciding with a reduction of nosocomial infections and MRSA transmission. The promotion of bedside, antiseptic handrubs largely contributed to the increase in compliance.

Exposure to farming in early life and development of asthma and allergy: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

A farming environment protects against development of asthma, hay fever, and atopic sensitisation in children. We aimed to establish whether increased exposure to microbial compounds has to occur early in life to affect maturation of the immune system and thereby reduces risk for development of allergic diseases.

METHODS

We did a cross-sectional survey in rural areas of Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. 2618 (75%) of 3504 parents of 6-13-year-old children completed a standardised questionnaire on asthma, hay fever, and atopic eczema. Children from farming families, and a random sample of non-farmers' children, who gave consent for blood samples to be obtained for measurements of specific serum IgE antibodies to common allergens were invited to participate (n=901).

FINDINGS

Exposure of children younger than 1 year, compared with those aged 1-5 years, to stables and consumption of farm milk was associated with lower frequencies of asthma (1% [3/218] vs 11% [15/138]), hay fever (3% [7] vs 13% [18]), and atopic sensitisation (12% [27] vs 29% [40]). Protection against development of asthma was independent from effect on atopic sensitisation. Continual long-term exposure to stables until age 5 years was associated with the lowest frequencies of asthma (0.8% [1/122]), hay fever (0.8% [1]), and atopic sensitisation (8.2% [10]).

INTERPRETATION

Long-term and early-life exposure to stables and farm milk induces a strong protective effect against development of asthma, hay fever, and atopic sensitisation.

Genetic Pathways to Glioblastoma

We conducted a population-based study on glioblastomas in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland (population, 1.16 million) to determine the frequency of major genetic alterations and their effect on patient survival. Between 1980 and 1994, 715 glioblastomas were diagnosed. The incidence rate per 100,000 population/year, adjusted to the World Standard Population, was 3.32 in males and 2.24 in females. Observed survival rates were 42.4% at 6 months, 17.7% at 1 year, and 3.3% at 2 years. For all of the age groups, younger patients survived significantly longer, ranging from a median of 8.8 months (<50 years) to 1.6 months (>80 years). Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) 10q was the most frequent genetic alteration (69%), followed by EGFR amplification (34%), TP53 mutations (31%), p16(INK4a) deletion (31%), and PTEN mutations (24%). LOH 10q occurred in association with any of the other genetic alterations and was predictive of shorter survival. Primary (de novo) glioblastomas prevailed (95%), whereas secondary glioblastomas that progressed from low-grade or anaplastic gliomas were rare (5%). Secondary glioblastomas were characterized by frequent LOH 10q (63%) and TP53 mutations (65%). Of the TP53 mutations in secondary glioblastomas, 57% were in hotspot codons 248 and 273, whereas in primary glioblastomas, mutations were more equally distributed. G:C-->A:T mutations at CpG sites were more frequent in secondary than primary glioblastomas (56% versus 30%; P = 0.0208). This suggests that the acquisition of TP53 mutations in these glioblastoma subtypes occurs through different mechanisms.

Population-Based Studies on Incidence, Survival Rates, and Genetic Alterations in Astrocytic and Oligodendroglial Gliomas

Published data on prognostic and predictive factors in patients with gliomas are largely based on clinical trials and hospital-based studies. This review summarizes data on incidence rates, survival, and genetic alterations from population-based studies of astrocytic and oligodendrogliomas that were carried out in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland (approximately 1.16 million inhabitants). A total of 987 cases were diagnosed between 1980 and 1994 and patients were followed up at least until 1999. While survival rates for pilocytic astrocytomas were excellent (96% at 10 years), the prognosis of diffusely infiltrating gliomas was poorer, with median survival times (MST) of 5.6 years for low-grade astrocytoma WHO grade II, 1.6 years for anaplastic astrocytoma grade III, and 0.4 years for glioblastoma. For oligodendrogliomas the MSTwas 11.6 years for grade II and 3.5 years for grade III. TP53 mutations were most frequent in gemistocytic astrocytomas (88%), followed by fibrillary astrocytomas (53%) and oligoastrocytomas (44%), but infrequent (13%) in oligodendrogliomas. LOH 1p/19q typically occurred in tumors without TP53 mutations and were most frequent in oligodendrogliomas (69%), followed by oligoastrocytomas (45%), but were rare in fibrillary astrocytomas (7%) and absent in gemistocytic astrocytomas. Glioblastomas were most frequent (3.55 cases per 100,000 persons per year) adjusted to the European Standard Population, amounting to 69% of total incident cases. Observed survival rates were 42.4% at 6 months, 17.7% at one year, and 3.3% at 2 years. For all age groups, survival was inversely correlated with age, ranging from an MST of 8.8 months (<50 years) to 1.6 months (>80 years). In glioblastomas, LOH 10q was the most frequent genetic alteration (69%), followed by EGFR amplification (34%), TP53 mutations (31%), p16INK4a deletion (31%), and PTEN mutations (24%). LOH 10q occurred in association with any of the other genetic alterations, and was the only alteration associated with shorter survival of glioblastoma patients. Primary (de novo) glioblastomas prevailed (95%), while secondary glioblastomas that progressed from low-grade or anaplastic gliomas were rare (5%). Secondary glioblastomas were characterized by frequent LOH 10q (63%) and TP53 mutations (65%). Of the TP53 mutations in secondary glioblastomas, 57% were in hot-spot codons 248 and 273, while in primary glioblastomas, mutations were more evenly distributed. G:C-->A:T mutations at CpG sites were more frequent in secondary than primary glioblastomas, suggesting that the acquisition of TP53 mutations in these glioblastoma subtypes may occur through different mechanisms.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

RATIONALE

An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes.

METHODS

We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France.

MEASUREMENTS

We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples.

MAIN RESULTS

The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II.

CONCLUSIONS

Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland (SEROCoV-POP): a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Assessing the burden of COVID-19 on the basis of medically attended case numbers is suboptimal given its reliance on testing strategy, changing case definitions, and disease presentation. Population-based serosurveys measuring anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies provide one method for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the epidemic. Here, we estimate weekly seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the population of Geneva, Switzerland, during the epidemic.

METHODS

The SEROCoV-POP study is a population-based study of former participants of the Bus Santé study and their household members. We planned a series of 12 consecutive weekly serosurveys among randomly selected participants from a previous population-representative survey, and their household members aged 5 years and older. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG antibodies using a commercially available ELISA. We estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian logistic regression model taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Geneva's population. Here we present results from the first 5 weeks of the study.

FINDINGS

Between April 6 and May 9, 2020, we enrolled 2766 participants from 1339 households, with a demographic distribution similar to that of the canton of Geneva. In the first week, we estimated a seroprevalence of 4·8% (95% CI 2·4-8·0, n=341). The estimate increased to 8·5% (5·9-11·4, n=469) in the second week, to 10·9% (7·9-14·4, n=577) in the third week, 6·6% (4·3-9·4, n=604) in the fourth week, and 10·8% (8·2-13·9, n=775) in the fifth week. Individuals aged 5-9 years (relative risk [RR] 0·32 [95% CI 0·11-0·63]) and those older than 65 years (RR 0·50 [0·28-0·78]) had a significantly lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. After accounting for the time to seroconversion, we estimated that for every reported confirmed case, there were 11·6 infections in the community.

INTERPRETATION

These results suggest that most of the population of Geneva remained uninfected during this wave of the pandemic, despite the high prevalence of COVID-19 in the region (5000 reported clinical cases over <2·5 months in the population of half a million people). Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in the population. Further, a significantly lower seroprevalence was observed for children aged 5-9 years and adults older than 65 years, compared with those aged 10-64 years. These results will inform countries considering the easing of restrictions aimed at curbing transmission.

FUNDING

Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Swiss School of Public Health (Corona Immunitas research program), Fondation de Bienfaisance du Groupe Pictet, Fondation Ancrage, Fondation Privée des Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève, and Center for Emerging Viral Diseases.

Use of the inactivated intranasal influenza vaccine and the risk of Bell's palsy in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

After the introduction of an inactivated intranasal influenza vaccine that was used only in Switzerland, 46 cases of Bell's palsy were reported.

METHODS

We conducted a matched case-control study and a case-series analysis. All primary care physicians, ear, nose, and throat specialists, and neurologists in German-speaking regions of Switzerland were requested to identify cases of Bell's palsy diagnosed in adults between October 1, 2000, and April 30, 2001. Each physician was invited to select three control patients for each patient with Bell's palsy, with matching according to age, date of the clinic visit, and physician. Vaccination information was provided by the physicians.

RESULTS

A total of 773 patients with Bell's palsy were identified. Of the 412 (53.3 percent) who could be evaluated, 250 (60.7 percent) were enrolled and matched with 722 control patients; the other 162 patients had no controls. In the case-control study, we found that 68 patients with Bell's palsy (27.2 percent) and 8 controls (1.1 percent) had received the intranasal vaccine (P<0.001). In contrast to parenteral vaccines, the intranasal vaccine significantly increased the risk of Bell's palsy (adjusted odds ratio, 84.0; 95 percent confidence interval, 20.1 to 351.9). Even according to conservative assumptions, the relative risk of Bell's palsy was estimated to be 19 times the risk in the controls, corresponding to 13 excess cases per 10,000 vaccinees within 1 to 91 days after vaccination. In the case-series analysis, the period of highest risk was 31 to 60 days after vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests a strong association between the inactivated intranasal influenza vaccine used in Switzerland and Bell's palsy. This vaccine is no longer in clinical use.

Cancer risk in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: associations with immunodeficiency, smoking, and highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have an increased risk for several cancers, but the influences of behavioral risk factors, such as smoking and intravenous drug use, and highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on cancer risk are not clear.

METHODS

Patient records were linked between the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and Swiss cantonal cancer registries. Observed and expected numbers of incident cancers were assessed in 7304 persons infected with HIV followed for 28,836 person-years. Relative risks for cancer compared with those for the general population were determined by estimating cancer registry-, sex-, age-, and period-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs).

RESULTS

Highly elevated SIRs were confirmed in persons infected with HIV for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) (SIR = 192, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 170 to 217) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 76.4, 95% CI = 66.5 to 87.4). Statistically significantly elevated SIRs were also observed for anal cancer (SIR = 33.4, 95% CI = 10.5 to 78.6); Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 17.3, 95% CI = 10.2 to 27.4); cancers of the cervix (SIR = 8.0, 95% CI = 2.9 to 17.4); liver (SIR = 7.0, 95% CI = 2.2 to 16.5); lip, mouth, and pharynx (SIR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.1 to 7.4); trachea, lung, and bronchus (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.7 to 5.4); and skin, nonmelanomatous (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 2.2 to 4.5). In HAART users, SIRs for KS (SIR = 25.3, 95% CI = 10.8 to 50.1) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 24.2, 95% CI = 15.0 to 37.1) were lower than those for nonusers (KS SIR = 239, 95% CI = 211 to 270; non-Hodgkin lymphoma SIR = 99.3, 95% CI = 85.8 to 114). Among HAART users, however, the SIR (although not absolute numbers) for Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 36.2, 95% CI = 16.4 to 68.9) was comparable to that for KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. No clear impact of HAART on SIRs emerged for cervical cancer or non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. Cancers of the lung, lip, mouth, or pharynx were not observed among nonsmokers.

CONCLUSION

In persons infected with HIV, HAART use may prevent most excess risk of KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but not that of Hodgkin lymphoma and other non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. No cancers of the lip, mouth, pharynx, or lung were observed in nonsmokers.

Students under lockdown: Comparisons of students' social networks and mental health before and during the COVID-19 crisis in Switzerland

This study investigates students’ social networks and mental health before and at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020, using longitudinal data collected since 2018. We analyze change on multiple dimensions of social networks (interaction, friendship, social support, co-studying) and mental health indicators (depression, anxiety, stress, loneliness) within two cohorts of Swiss undergraduate students experiencing the crisis (N = 212), and make additional comparisons to an earlier cohort which did not experience the crisis (N = 54). In within-person comparisons we find that interaction and co-studying networks had become sparser, and more students were studying alone. Furthermore, students’ levels of stress, anxiety, loneliness, and depressive symptoms got worse, compared to measures before the crisis. Stressors shifted from fears of missing out on social life to worries about health, family, friends, and their future. Exploratory analyses suggest that COVID-19 specific worries, isolation in social networks, lack of interaction and emotional support, and physical isolation were associated with negative mental health trajectories. Female students appeared to have worse mental health trajectories when controlling for different levels of social integration and COVID-19 related stressors. As universities and researchers discuss future strategies on how to combine on-site teaching with online courses, our results indicate the importance of considering social contacts in students’ mental health and offer starting points to identify and support students at higher risk of social isolation and negative psychological effects during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mortality of patients with mood disorders: follow-up over 34-38 years

BACKGROUND

All follow-up studies of causes of death in affective disordered patients have found they have markedly elevated suicide rates and a less reproducible increased mortality from other causes. The reported rates by gender, disorder type and treatment are more variable.

METHODS

Hospitalised affective disordered patients (n=406) were followed prospectively for 22 years or more. Later, mortality was assessed for 99% of them at which time 76% had died.

RESULTS

Standardised Mortality Rates (observed deaths/expected deaths) for patients were elevated especially for suicide and circulatory disorders in both men and women. Women actually had higher suicide rates but that did not take into account the twofold increase in general population rates for men. Unipolar patients had significantly higher rates of suicide than bipolar Is or IIs. In all groups long term medication treatment with antidepressants alone or with a neuroleptic, or with lithium in combination with antidepressants and/or neuroleptics significantly lowered suicide rates even though the treated were more severely ill. Although at the age of onset the suicide rates were most elevated, from ages 30 to 70 the rates were remarkably constant despite the different courses of illness.

LIMITATIONS

The patients were identified as inpatients and followed prospectively. The treatments were uncontrolled and are not quantifiable but were documented during the follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Men and women hospitalised for affective disorders have elevated mortality rates from suicide and circulatory disorders. Unipolars have higher suicide rates than bipolar Is or IIs. Long term medication treatment lowers the suicide rates, despite the fact that it was the more severely ill who were treated.

Epidemiology of the non-Hodgkin's lymphomas: distributions of the major subtypes differ by geographic locations. Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma Classification Project

BACKGROUND

There has been no previous systematic study of the distribution of the major subtypes of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) across geographic regions, although there have been isolated reports of such differences.

DESIGN

As part of a clinical evaluation of the International Lymphoma Study Group (ILSG) classification of NHL, we classified 1378 NHLs from eight different geographic sites (Omaha, NE, USA; Vancouver, BC, Canada; Capetown, South Africa; London, England; Würzburg/Göttingen, Germany; Lyon, France; Locarno/Bellinzona, Switzerland; and Hong Kong) using the ILSG classification.

RESULTS

Substantial differences were found in the distribution of the major subtypes of NHL across geographic regions (P < 0.0001). A greater percentage of follicular lymphoma was seen in North America, London and Capetown (31% versus 14% at other sites). Peripheral T-cell lymphoma was more common in London, Capetown and Hong Kong (9%) than elsewhere (3%). In Locarno/Bellinzona, higher percentages of mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma (9% versus 2% elsewhere) and mantle cell lymphoma (14% versus 6% elsewhere) were seen. Angiocentric nasal T-/NK-cell lymphoma was only seen in Hong Kong (8%) and Lyon (2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides evidence that the distribution of NHL subtypes differs by geographic region. These findings suggest that geographical differences in etiologic or host factors may be responsible for the observed differences in the distribution of cases across NHL subtypes.

Changes in morbidity after pancreatic resection: toward the end of completion pancreatectomy

HYPOTHESIS

Advances in specialized centers for pancreatic diseases have improved surgical morbidity and outcome. In the past, postoperative local complications (pancreatic fistulae) were causing most of the mortality. Now, more patients experience postoperative complications related to their comorbidity.

DESIGN

To report a prospective audit of a single center's experience with pancreatic resection during an 8-year period.

SETTING

Tertiary referral center focused on pancreatic diseases.

PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS

Six hundred seventeen consecutive patients underwent pancreatectomy between November 1, 1993, and August 31, 2001. The series included 468 pancreatic head resections (76%), 25 total pancreatectomies (4%), 88 left-sided resections (14%), and 36 others (6%).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Morbidity after pancreatic resection.

RESULTS

Postoperative in-hospital mortality was 1.6%, and the additional operation rate was 4.1%. Four patients died of surgical complications and 6 of systemic complications. Systemic morbidity was 18% and consisted primarily of cardiopulmonary complications (13%). The most frequent postoperative complication was delayed gastric emptying (14%), which caused significant prolongation of the hospital stay. No patients died of a postoperative pancreatic fistula, which occurred in 3.2%, and no completion pancreatectomies were necessary.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic resections can be performed with considerable safety and a low rate of pancreatic complications. More patients die of systemic complications than in the past, which increases the demand for precise preoperative patient selection. Completion pancreatectomy should no longer be considered in patients with a pancreatic fistula.

Estimating community drug abuse by wastewater analysis

BACKGROUND

The social and medical problems of drug abuse are a matter of increasing global concern. To tackle drug abuse in changing scenarios, international drug agencies need fresh methods to monitor trends and patterns of illicit drug consumption.

OBJECTIVE

We tested a sewage epidemiology approach, using levels of excreted drug residues in wastewater, to monitor collective use of the major drugs of abuse in near real time.

METHODS

Selected drug target residues derived from use of cocaine, opiates, cannabis, and amphetamines were measured by mass spectrometry in wastewater collected at major sewage treatment plants in Milan (Italy), Lugano (Switzerland), and London (United Kingdom). The amounts of drug residues conveyed to the treatment plants, reflecting the amounts collectively excreted with urine, were used to estimate consumption of the active parent drugs.

RESULTS

Reproducible and characteristic profiles of illicit drug use were obtained in the three cities, thus for the first time quickly revealing changes in local consumption (e.g., cocaine consumption rose significantly on weekends in Milan). Profiles of local drug consumption based on waste-water measurements are in line with national annual prevalence estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Patterns and trends of drug abuse in local communities can be promptly monitored by this tool, a convenient new complement to more complex, lengthy survey methods. In principle, searching the sewage for excreted compounds relevant to public health issues appears to have the potential to become a convenient source of real-time epidemiologic information.

Prevalence of hay fever and allergic sensitization in farmer's children and their peers living in the same rural community. SCARPOL team. Swiss Study on Childhood Allergy and Respiratory Symptoms with Respect to Air Pollution

INTRODUCTION

Lower prevalence rates of allergic diseases in rural as compared with urban populations have been interpreted as indicating an effect of air pollution. However, little is known about other factors of the rural environment which may determine the development of atopic sensitization and related diseases.

OBJECTIVE

The authors tested the hypothesis that children growing up on a farm were less likely to be sensitized to common aerollergens and to suffer from allergic diseases than children living in the same villages but in nonfarming families.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Three age groups of schoolchildren (6-7 years, 9-11 years, 13-15 years) living in three rural communities were included in the analyses. An exhaustive questionnaire was filled in by 1620 (86.0%) parents. A blood sample was provided by 404 (69.3%) of the 13-15 year olds to determine specific IgE antibodies against six common aeroallergens.

RESULTS

Farming as parental occupation was reported for 307 children (19.0%). After adjustment for potential covariates such as family history of asthma and allergies, parental education, number of siblings, maternal smoking, pet ownership, indoor humidity and heating fuels, farming as parental occupation was significantly associated with lower rates of sneezing attacks during pollen season (adjusted OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.12-0.89) and atopic sensitization (adjusted OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.13-0.73) whereas the association with wheeze (adjusted OR 0.77 95% CI 0.38-1.58) and itchy skin rash (adjusted OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.49-1.50) was not statistically significant. The risk of atopic sensitization was lower in children from full-time farmers (adjusted OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.09-0.66) than from part-time farmers (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.15-1.96).

CONCLUSION

Factors directly or indirectly related to farming as parental occupation decrease the risk of children becoming atopic and developing symptoms of allergic rhinitis.

Expansion of the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the updated BODE index and the ADO index

BACKGROUND

The BODE index (including body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity) was an important contribution to the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, no study has assessed whether the risk of mortality predicted by the BODE index matches the observed mortality in different populations. We assessed the calibration of the BODE index, updated it to improve its calibration, and developed and validated a simplified index for use in primary-care settings.

METHODS

We included 232 patients from the Swiss Barmelweid cohort with longstanding and severe COPD and 342 patients from the Spanish Phenotype and Course of COPD cohort study who had had their first hospital admission due to moderate-to-severe COPD. In both cohorts we compared the observed 3-year risk of all-cause mortality with the risk predicted by the BODE index. We then updated the BODE index and developed a simplified ADO index (including age, dyspnoea, and airflow obstruction) from the Swiss cohort, and validated both in the Spanish cohort.

FINDINGS

Calibration of the BODE index was poor, with relative underprediction of 3-year risk of mortality by 36% in the Swiss cohort (median predicted risk 21.7% [IQR 12.7-31.7] vs 34.1% observed risk; p=0.013) and relative overprediction by 39% in the Spanish cohort (16.7% [12.7-31.7] vs 12.0%; p=0.035). The 3-year risk of mortality predicted by both the updated BODE (median 10.7% [8.1-13.8]) and ADO indices (11.8% [9.1-14.3]) matched the observed mortality in the Spanish cohort well (p=0.99 and p=0.98, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Both the updated BODE and ADO indices could lend support to the prognostic assessment of patients with COPD in specialised and primary-care settings. Such assessment enhances the targeting of treatments to individual patients.

FUNDING

Swiss National Science Foundation; Klinik Barmelweid; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria Ministry of Health, Spain; Agència d'Avaluació de Tecnologia i Recerca Mèdiques, Catalonia Government; Spanish Society of Pneumology and Thoracic Surgery; Catalan Foundation of Pneumology; Red RESPIRA; Red RCESP; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria; Fundació La Marató de TV3; Novartis Farmacèutica, Spain.

Epidemiology of candidemia in Swiss tertiary care hospitals: secular trends, 1991-2000

Candida species are among the most common bloodstream pathogens in the United States, where the emergence of azole-resistant Candida glabrata and Candida krusei are major concerns. Recent comprehensive longitudinal data from Europe are lacking. We conducted a nationwide survey of candidemia during 1991-2000 in 17 university and university-affiliated hospitals representing 79% of all tertiary care hospital beds in Switzerland. The number of transplantations and bloodstream infections increased significantly (P<.001). A total of 1137 episodes of candidemia were observed: Candida species ranked seventh among etiologic agents (2.9% of all bloodstream isolates). The incidence of candidemia was stable over a 10-year period. C. albicans remained the predominant Candida species recovered (66%), followed by C. glabrata (15%). Candida tropicalis emerged (9%), the incidence of Candida parapsilosis decreased (1%), and recovery of C. krusei remained rare (2%). Fluconazole consumption increased significantly (P<.001). Despite increasing high-risk activities, the incidence of candidemia remained unchanged, and no shift to resistant species occurred.

Incidence of status epilepticus in adults in Germany: a prospective, population-based study

PURPOSE

To determine the incidence and case-fatality rate of status epilepticus (SE) in adults in Hessen, Germany, we performed a prospective, population-based study from July 1997 through June 1999.

METHODS

All adult patients residing within the zip-code area 35 (area-35) with SE were included. Area-35 had 743.285 adult inhabitants, including 123.353 adult inhabitants of the primary service area of the University Hospital Marburg (PS-area). Patients were reported by 16 hospitals in the area and were prospectively identified and carefully reviewed within 5 days by one of the authors. Based on the crude annual incidence of SE and a rate of underascertainment of 10% determined for the PS-area, the corrected, age-adjusted incidence of SE in area 35, more representative of the population of Germany, was calculated.

RESULTS

The crude annual incidence in the PS-area was 15.8/100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI), 11.2-21.6]. The calculated, corrected, age-adjusted incidence of SE in area 35 was 17.1/100,000. It was higher for men compared with women (26.1 vs. 13.7) and for those aged 60 years and older (54.5 vs. 4.2/100,000, p < 0.0001). The etiology was mainly remote symptomatic due to cerebrovascular disease. Epilepsy was previously diagnosed in only 50% of the patients. The case-fatality rate was 9.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our data, at least 14,000 patients would be affected by SE in Germany, associated with approximately 1,300 deaths annually. The incidence of SE in Germany is similar to that found in the white United States population. Furthermore, this study confirms the higher incidence of SE in male patients and in the elderly population. This may be due to a higher incidence of cerebrovascular disease in these subpopulations.

Migraine and psychopathology. Results of the Zurich cohort study of young adults

We present data regarding the association of psychiatric syndromes and migraine headache from a prospective epidemiologic cohort study of 27- and 28-year-olds in Zurich, Switzerland. The prevalence of migraine of 13.3% approximates estimates from previous epidemiologic studies in other regions of the world. Consistent with previous reports, there was a strong association between migraine and depression. However, this is the first study to demonstrate this association in an unselected epidemiologic sample with standardized assessment of psychiatric diagnoses by direct interview. The association between migraine and the anxiety disorders was even stronger than that for the affective disorders. The combination of anxiety disorder and major depression, but not pure anxiety disorders, nor pure depression, were significantly associated with migraine. Our data suggest that migraine with anxiety and depression may constitute a distinct syndrome comprising anxiety, often manifested in early childhood, followed by the occurrence of migraine headaches, and then by discrete episodes of depressive disorder in adulthood. Because of the prospective longitudinal design of this study, future assessments of this cohort will provide further information on the stability of these findings and the course of this cohort as subjects proceed through adulthood.

Relative survival and the estimation of net survival: elements for further discussion

The methods of calculation of survival corrected for independent cause of death are discussed, and a maximum likelihood method is proposed and illustrated by survival of colon cancer patients in Geneva. The methods which are at present favoured for doing such calculations are subject to various biases when estimating net survival if the populations are heterogeneous for life expectancy. The proposed maximum likelihood approach would eliminate these biases by enabling relevant adjustment for covariates which influence survival. The routine use of such methods would permit better comparison of survival within and between populations.

Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?

This paper studies the relationship between health care expenditure (HCE) and age, using longitudinal rather than cross-sectional data. The econometric analysis of HCE in the last eight quarters of life of individuals who died during the period 1983-1992 indicates that HCE depends on remaining lifetime but not on calendar age, at least beyond 65+. The positive relationship between age and HCE observed in cross-sectional data may be caused by the simple fact that at age 80, for example, there are many more individuals living in their last 2 years than at age 65. The limited impact of age on HCE suggests that population ageing may contribute much less to future growth of the health care sector than claimed by most observers.

Impact of a prevention strategy targeted at vascular-access care on incidence of infections acquired in intensive care

BACKGROUND

Intravascular devices are a leading cause of nosocomial infection. Specific prevention strategies and improved guidelines for the use of intravascular devices can decrease the rate of infection; however, the impact of a combination of these strategies on rates of vascular-access infection in intensive-care units (ICUs) is not known. We implemented a multiple-approach prevention programme to decrease the occurrence of vascular-access infection in an 18-bed medical ICU at a tertiary centre.

METHODS

3154 critically ill patients, admitted between October, 1995, and November, 1997, were included in a cohort study with longitudinal assessment of an overall catheter-care policy targeted at the reduction of vascular-access infections and based on an educational campaign for vascular-access insertion and on device use and care. Incidence of ICU-acquired infections was measured by means of on-site surveillance.

FINDINGS

613 infections occurred in 353 patients (19.4 infections per 100 admissions). The incidence density of exit-site catheter infection was 9.2 episodes per 1000 patient-days before the intervention, and 3.3 episodes per 1000 patient-days afterwards (relative risk 0.36 [95% CI 0.20-0.63]). Corresponding rates for bloodstream infection were 11.3 and 3.8 episodes per 1000 patient-days, respectively (0.33 [0.20-0.56]) due to decreased rates of both microbiologically documented infections and clinical sepsis. Rates of respiratory and urinary-tract infections remained unchanged, whereas those of skin or mucous-membrane infections decreased from 11.4 to 7.0 episodes per 1000 patient-days (0.62 [0.41-0.93]). Overall, the incidence of nosocomial infections decreased from 52.4 to 34.0 episodes per 1000 patient-days (0.65 [0.54-0.78]).

INTERPRETATION

A multiple-approach prevention strategy, targeted at the insertion and maintenance of vascular access, can decrease rates of vascular-access infections and can have a substantial impact on the overall incidence of ICU-acquired infections.

Multicenter intravascular ultrasound validation study among heart transplant recipients: outcomes after five years

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess the validity of first-year intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) data as a surrogate marker for long-term outcome after heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND

Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is a major impediment to long-term graft survival. Intravascular ultrasound is more sensitive than coronary angiography and detects intimal thickening (early CAV) in the coronary arteries of the donor heart. Single-center studies have suggested first-year IVUS results might be a surrogate marker for long-term outcome.

METHODS

First-year IVUS results and subsequent five-year clinical follow-up data were reviewed in 125 heart transplant recipients from five institutions. The IVUS tapes (at baseline and one year) were re-analyzed at a core IVUS laboratory. The change in maximal intimal thickness (MIT) from baseline to one year was recorded for several matched sites in the same coronary artery. Patients were classified into two groups: those with >/=0.5 mm in the MIT in any matched site (group 1) and those with MIT <0.5 mm (group 2).

RESULTS

Group 1 patients compared with group 2 patients had a higher incidence of death or graft loss (D/GL, 20.8% vs. 5.9%; p = 0.007), had more nonfatal major adverse cardiac events and/or D/GL (45.8% vs. 16.8%; p = 0.003), and had more findings of newly occurring angiographic luminal irregularities (65.2% vs. 32.6%, p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

This multicenter study suggests that progression of intimal thickening >/=0.5 mm in the first year after transplantation appears to be a reliable surrogate marker for subsequent mortality, nonfatal major adverse cardiac events, and development of angiographic CAV through five years after heart transplantation.