Projected US Urology Workforce per Capita, 2020-2060

Importance

Projections to 2035 have demonstrated concern regarding a worsening urology workforce shortage.

Objective

To project the size and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce per capita into 2060 and to anticipate the timing and degree of the impending urology workforce shortage.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cross-sectional study used the 2019 American Urological Association Annual Census data and the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Data Resource Book from 2007 to 2018. The cohort included practicing urologists in 2019. US Census data were used to approximate the projected US population. Data analysis was performed from June 2020 to March 2021.

Exposures

Continued growth stock and flow model of 13.8% and stagnant growth model of 0% increase of the incoming urology workforce with cohort projection per projected US population.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was urology workforce projection per the population aged 65 years and older. Urology workforce projections per capita and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce up to 2060 were calculated under guided assumptions with 2 stock and flow models.

Results

In 2019, there were 13 044 urologists (11 758 men [90.1.%]; 1286 women [9.9%]; median age range, 55-59 years), with 3.99 urologists per 100 000 persons and 311 new urologists entering the workforce. In a continued growth model, 2030 will have the lowest number of urologists per capita of 3.3 urologists per 100 000 persons, and recovery to baseline will occur by 2050. There are 23.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2020, which decreases to 15.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2035 and never recovers to its baseline level by 2060. In a stagnant growth model, there will be a continued decrease of urologists per capita to 3.1 urologists per 100 000 persons by 2060. There is a continued decrease in per capita urologists at each time point, with 13.1 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older by 2060.

Conclusions and Relevance

With the impending urology workforce shortage, there will be an exaggerated shortage of total urologists per persons aged 65 years and older in both models. This projection highlights the need for structural changes and advocacy to maximize the available urology workforce.

Urology Workforce Changes and Implications for Prostate Cancer Care Among Medicare Enrollees

OBJECTIVE

To characterize national trends in urologist workforce, practice organization, and management of incident prostate cancer.

METHODS

Using Medicare claims data from 2010 to 2016, we identified all urologists billing Medicare and the practice with which they were affiliated. We characterized groups as solo, small single specialty, large single specialty, multispecialty, specialist, or hospital-owned practices. Using a 20% sample of national Medicare claims, we identified all patients with incident prostate cancer and identified their primary treatment.

RESULTS

The number of urologists increased from 9,305 in 2010 to 9,570 in 2016 (P = .03), while the number of practices decreased from 3,588 to 2,861 (P < .001). The proportion of urologists in multispecialty groups increased from 17.1% in 2010 to 28.2% in 2016, while those within solo practices declined from 26.2% to only 15.8% over the same time period. A higher proportion of patients at hospital-owned practices were treated with observation (P < .001) and surgery (P < .001), while a higher proportion of patients at large single specialty practices were treated with radiation therapy (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

We characterized shifts in urologist membership from smaller, independent groups to larger, multispecialty or hospital-owned practices. This trend coincides with higher utilization of observation and surgical treatment for prostate cancer.

Training of Tunisian future urologists: how to improve it ?

BACKGROUND

The lack of continuous evaluation of training tools in medicine, especially in developing countries, represents a brake to the development of the latter.

AIM

To establish an inventory of the training facilities available to residents in urology in Tunisia, to assess their satisfaction and their expectations, and to propose solutions to improve residents training.

METHODS

An anonymous questionnaire was sent by E-mail in 2015 to all residents in urology in Tunisia. The questionnaire addressed demographic characteristics, educational resources used and desired, the current medical and university curriculum and evaluation of the training.

RESULTS

Among 33 residents, 66.6% responded to the survey. Medical staff, courses organized by the national college of urology, reading french-language articles and daily activity in operating room were the most used pedagogic resources. Training was judged unsatisfactory by 59.1% of respondents because of a lack of theoretical training in 18.1% of cases, a lack of practical training in 13.6% of cases and both of them in 27.2% of cases. Training on animals and simulator, creation of an educational booklet, use of online course materials, and the institution of a mentoring process during residency were rated favorable by the majority of respondents.

CONCLUSION

The majority of residents in urology in Tunisia believe their training is unsatisfactory. The E-learning, improved access to surgical training in animals and simulator, better information on existing resources and strengthening of companionship through tutoring should enhance satisfaction.