Health impact analysis of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke in Canada (2013-2015, 2017-2018)

Smoke from wildfires contains many air pollutants of concern and epidemiological studies have identified associations between exposure to wildfire smoke PM_2.5 and mortality and respiratory morbidity, and a possible association with cardiovascular morbidity. For this study, a retrospective analysis of air quality modelling was performed to quantify the exposure to wildfire-PM_2.5 across the Canadian population. The model included wildfire emissions from across North America for a 5-month period from May to September (i.e. wildfire season), between 2013 and 2015 and 2017-2018. Large variations in wildfire-PM_2.5 were noted year-to-year, geospatially, and within fire season. The model results were then used to estimate the national population health impacts attributable to wildfire-PM_2.5 and the associated economic valuation. The analysis estimated annual premature mortalities ranging from 54-240 premature mortalities attributable to short-term exposure and 570-2500 premature mortalities attributable to long-term exposure, as well as many non-fatal cardiorespiratory health outcomes. The economic valuation of the population health impacts was estimated per year at $410M-$1.8B for acute health impacts and $4.3B-$19B for chronic health impacts for the study period. The health impacts were greatest in the provinces with populations in close proximity to wildfire activity, though health impacts were also noted across many provinces indicating the long-range transport of wildfire-PM_2.5. Understanding the population health impacts of wildfire smoke is important as climate change is anticipated to increase wildfire activity in Canada and abroad.