Body mass index and waist circumference are better predictors of insulin resistance than total body fat percentage in middle-aged and elderly Taiwanese

The incidence of diabetes mellitus is rising worldwide, and prediabetic screening for insulin resistance (IR) has become ever more essential. This study aimed to investigate whether body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), or body fat percentage (BF%) could be a better predictor of IR in a middle-aged and elderly population. In this cross-sectional, community-based study, 394 individuals (97 with IR and 297 without IR) were enrolled in the analysis. IR was measured by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR), and subjects with HOMA-IR value ≧75th percentile were defined as being IR. Associations between IR and BMI, WC and BF% were evaluated by t test, chi square, Pearson correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. A total of 394 community-dwelling, middle-aged, and elderly persons were enrolled; 138 (35%) were male, and 256 were female (65%). The mean age was 64.41 ± 8.46 years. A significant association was identified between BMI, WC, BF%, and IR, with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.437 (P < .001), 0.412 (P < .001), and 0.361 (P < .001), respectively. Multivariate logistic regression revealed BMI (OR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.20-1.42), WC (OR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.08-1.17), and BF% (OR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.11-1.23) to be independent predictors of IR. The area under curves of BMI and WC, 0.749 and 0.745 respectively, are greater than that of BF% 0.687. BMI and WC were more strongly associated with IR than was BF%. Excess body weight and body fat distribution were more important than total body fat in predicting IR.

Features of hospital and emergency medical service in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with shockable rhythm

OBJECTIVE

Predicting the outcome of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients is crucial. We examined hospital characteristics and parameters of emergency medical service (including scene time interval and direct ambulance delivery to intensive heart hospitals) as survival or outcome predictors.

STUDY DESIGN

Data from 546 consecutive OHCA shockable patients treated between January 2012 and December 2015 in Taoyuan City (Taiwan, ROC) were collected. In addition to demographic data, location of arrest, initial rhythm, availability of a hospital with or without 24/7 percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), emergency medical service (EMS) time, provision of cardiopulmonary resuscitation by a bystander, presence of a witness at collapse, and level of life support were analysed.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that hospitalisation with immediate PCI availability was an independent predictor (OR: 4.32; 95% CI: 1.27-14.70) solely for the outcome of survival until discharge. The presence of a witness while collapsing (OR: 3.52; 95% CI: 1.03-11.98), EMS response time (OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.70-0.98), and scene time interval (STI; OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81-0.99) were valuable for predicting the neurological outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Direct ambulance delivery to intensive heart hospitals that had 24/7 PCI availability was associated with a higher probability of surviving until discharge in OHCA patients with shockable rhythms. Similarly, a witnessed collapse was correlated with being discharged alive from hospital and recovering with good cerebral performance. In addition, longer response time and scene time interval indicated poorer survival and neurological outcome.

Predicting emergency departments visit rates from septicemia in Taiwan using an age-period-cohort model, 1998 to 2012

The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort (APC) effects on the rate of infection-related emergency department (ED) visits from septicemia for predicting the same in recent periods.In our study, we investigated the longitudinal trends in septicemia-related visit rates. Using an APC model to decompose the septicemia visit rates into the effects of age, time period, and cohort, and examine whether their effects varied by sex.The septicemia ED visit rate was classified as the International Classification of Disease Code 038 by primary and secondary diagnosis between 1998 and 2012.In both males and females, the visit rate of septicemia showed an increase from 2003 through 2012. An increase in septicemia visit rate after 2003 was observed in all age groups. An APC model indicated a reversal increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 2003 to 2012 in both males and females. The age effect showed an increasing trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight oscillation from 1913 to 1988. With reference to the prediction of the logarithms of the age-specific 5-year visit rates, we observed that the younger cohorts exhibited a slightly increasing trend, as compared to the older cohorts.The period effect can explain the increase in septicemia visit rates, suggesting the role of screening for septicemia. Furthermore, it is well known that aging is a relevant risk variable for infectious diseases. The present study concludes that the aged population exhibited a strong increasing future trend for septicemia-related ED visit rates.

Associations between excessive adiposity and seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 among US adults: a population-based age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

Evidence on the association between herpes simplex virus (HSV) and excessive adiposity, such as obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) and abdominal obesity (waist circumference (WC) >102 or 88 cm), has been inconsistent. We sought to examine whether age-period-cohort (APC) effects could explain for the observed heterogeneities.

DESIGN

Population-based cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 20-49 years with available serological data in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 1999-2012.

EXPOSURE MEASURES

Obesity and abdominal obesity.

RESULTS

In men, excessive adiposity was generally not associated with HSV1 or HSV2 (all p>0.05); however, there were positive correlations between HSV seroprevalence and excessive adiposity in certain age and birth cohort groups. Based on APC analysis, abdominally obese men aged 30-40 years showed a nearly 20% increase in risk for HSV1 seropositivity (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR)=1.18; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.27) as compared with abdominally non-obese men of the same age; there was no such association in men of other age groups. Also, men of a large WC who were born before 1962 or after 1979 had a 28% higher risk for HSV2 seropositivity than those of a normal WC in the same birth cohorts (aPR=1.28, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.54); yet the association did not hold for men in other cohorts (aPR=0.86, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.17). In women, a large WC was correlated with a minimally increased HSV1 seroprevalence (aPR=1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13) but not with HSV2 seropositivity (aPR=1.13; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.28). Likewise, there were strong associations between abdominal obesity and HSV2 seropositivity in subgroups of women participating in the earliest survey cycle (aPR=1.41, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.78) but not in other survey periods (aPR=0.94, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no consistent evidence for strong associations between HSV seropositivity and excessive adiposity in adults. APC analysis results further cautioned the generalisability of previous reports based on 1 or 2 cycles of survey data.

Impact of performance grading on annual numbers of acute myocardial infarction-associated emergency department visits in Taiwan: Results of segmented regression analysis

To reduce patient boarding time at the emergency department (ED) and to improve the overall quality of the emergent care system in Taiwan, the Minister of Health and Welfare of Taiwan (MOHW) piloted the Grading Responsible Hospitals for Acute Care (GRHAC) audit program in 2007-2009.The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of the GRHAC audit program on the identification and management of acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-associated ED visits by describing and comparing the incidence of AMI-associated ED visits before (2003-2007), during (2007-2009), and after (2009-2012) the initial audit program implementation.Using aggregated data from the MOHW of Taiwan, we estimated the annual incidence of AMI-associated ED visits by Poisson regression models. We used segmented regression techniques to evaluate differences in the annual rates and in the year-to-year changes in AMI-associated ED visits between 2003 and 2012. Medical comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, and hypertensive disease were considered as potential confounders.Overall, the number of AMI-associated patient visits increased from 8130 visits in 2003 to 12,695 visits in 2012 (P-value for trend < 0.001), corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 5.3% (95%confidence interval [CI]: 0.5-10%). Although age was a major risk factor for AMI-associated ED visits, the statistical association was observed in middle-to-old (aged 40-64; P-value < 0.001) and older aged individuals (aged ≥65; P-value <0.001). As compared to 2003-2007, AMI-associated ED visits increased slightly during the intervention roll-in period (2007-2009, slope = 394.5, P-value = 0.117) followed by a dramatic uptake in the early post-intervention period (2010-2012, slope = 1037, P-value = 0.083).There was evidence suggesting for a significant intervention effect of the GRHAC program on identifying critically ill patients with AMI-associated diagnosis at the ED. As the program evaluation is still ongoing, we expect to observe a sustained program effect on hospitals' capacity for timely and correctly diagnosing and managing patients presenting with AMI-associated symptoms or signs at the ED.

STARD-compliant article: The utility of red cell distribution width to predict mortality for septic patients visiting the emergency department

Sepsis is a common condition in the emergency department that is associated with high mortality. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been used as a simple prognosis predictor for patients with community-acquired pneumonia, gram-negative bacteremia, and severe sepsis or septic shock. To evaluate the performance of RDW to predict in-hospital mortality among septic patients, we conducted a hospital-based retrospective cohort study in an emergency department of a tertiary teaching hospital. RDW was compared with other commonly used clinical prediction scores (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and the Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, 65 years of age and older (CURB65)). Of 6973 consecutive adult patients with a clinical diagnosis of sepsis and 2 sets of blood culture ordered by physicians, 477 (6.8%) died. The mortality group had higher RDW levels than the survival group (15.7% vs 13.8%). After dividing RDW into quartiles, the patients in the highest RDW quartile (RDW >15.6%; mortality, 16.7%) had more than twice the risk of in-hospital mortality compared with patients in the second highest quartile (RDW >14% and <15.6%; mortality, 7.3%), whereas the mortality rate in the lowest RDW quartile (<13.1%) was only 1.6%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of RDW to predict mortality was 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.77), which is significantly higher than the areas under the curve of clinical prediction rules (SIRS, MEDS, and CURB65). After integrating RDW into these scores, all scores performed better in predicting mortality (0.73, 0.72, and 0.77, for SIRS, MEDS, and CURB65, respectively). RDW could be an independent predictor of mortality among septic patients. Clinicians could classify the septic patients into different risk groups according to RDW quartiles. For more accurate mortality prediction, RDW could be a potential parameter to be incorporated into clinical prediction rules.

Forecasting hepatocellular carcinoma mortality in Taiwan using an age-period-cohort model

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common primary malignancy of the liver. Estimates of the future HCC burden are important for health planning. The authors applied an age-period-cohort (APC) model for a 15-year forecast of HCC mortality in Taiwan (based on mortality data between the years 1976 and 2005). It is found that for men, the mortality trend reverses itself in the period 2011-2015, from an increasing one to a slightly deceasing one. For women, the increasing trend reverses itself in the period 2001-2005. The age-adjusted HCC mortality for men and women in the most recent available years, 2006-2008, both fall in the range forecast by the APC model. Forecasting using the APC model can provide an advanced warning of trend reversals.

Detecting differentially expressed genes in heterogeneous diseases using control-only analysis of variance

PURPOSE

Microarray technology allows for simultaneously screening many genes and determining which gene(s) are differentially expressed in different disease statuses or different cell types. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) (for a K-sample situation with K>2) can be used in such occasions to gauge statistical significances. However, the test may be underpowered if the diseases under study are heterogeneous.

METHODS

The authors propose the "control-only ANOVA" for detecting differentially expressed genes in heterogeneous diseases. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that the test produces quite accurate type I error rates for both normal and non-normal data. The statistical power of the control-only ANOVA is higher than that of the conventional ANOVA when the diseases under study are heterogeneous.

RESULTS

Analysis of a real data set shows that after Bonferroni correction, the control-only ANOVA detects three differentially expressed genes, whereas the conventional ANOVA can detect only one.

CONCLUSIONS

The control-only ANOVA is recommended for use when the diseases under study are heterogeneous.