Alpha-fetoprotein and modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors progression after locoregional therapy as predictors of hepatocellular cancer recurrence and death after transplantation

Locoregional therapy (LRT) is being increasingly used for the management of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) in patients listed for liver transplantation (LT). Although several selection criteria have been developed, stratifications of survival according to the pathology of explanted livers and pre-LT LRT are lacking. Radiological progression according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) behavior was reviewed for 306 patients within the Milan criteria (MC-IN) and 116 patients outside the Milan criteria (MC-OUT) who underwent LRT and LT between January 1999 and March 2010. A prospectively collected database originating from 6 collaborating European centers was used for the study. Sixty-one patients (14.5%) developed HCC recurrence. For both MC-IN and MC-OUT patients, an AFP slope > 15 ng/mL/month and mRECIST progression were unique independent risk factors for HCC recurrence and patient death. When the radiological Milan criteria (MC) status was combined with radiological and biological progression, MC-IN and MC-OUT patients without risk factors had similarly excellent 5-year tumor-free and patient survival rates. MC-IN patients with at least 1 risk factor had worse outcomes, and MC-OUT patients with at least 1 risk factor had the poorest survival (P < 0.001). In conclusion, both radiological and biological modifications permit documentation of the response to LRT in patients waiting for LT. According to these 2 parameters, tumor progression significantly increases the risk of recurrence and patient death not only for MC-OUT patients but also for MC-IN patients. The monitoring of both parameters in combination with the initial radiological MC status is an essential element for further refining the selection criteria for potential liver recipients with HCC.

Personalised management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multiparametric therapeutic hierarchy concept

Advances in the surgical and systemic therapeutic landscape of hepatocellular carcinoma have increased the complexity of patient management. A dynamic adaptation of the available staging-based algorithms is required to allow flexible therapeutic allocation. In particular, real-world hepatocellular carcinoma management increasingly relies on factors independent of oncological staging, including patients' frailty, comorbid burden, critical tumour location, multiple liver functional parameters, and specific technical contraindications impacting the delivery of treatment and resource availability. In this Policy Review we critically appraise how treatment allocation strictly based on pretreatment staging features has shifted towards a more personalised treatment approach, in which expert tumour boards assume a central role. We propose an evidence-based framework for hepatocellular carcinoma treatment based on the novel concept of multiparametric therapeutic hierarchy, in which different therapeutic options are ordered according to their survival benefit (ie, from surgery to systemic therapy). Moreover, we introduce the concept of converse therapeutic hierarchy, in which therapies are ordered according to their conversion abilities or adjuvant abilities (ie, from systemic therapy to surgery).

Neutrophil and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio as new predictors of dropout and recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular cancer

There is increasing evidence that systemic inflammation markers like neutrophil (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios (PLR) may play a role in the outcome of hepatocellular cancer (HCC). Between January 1994 and March 2012, 181 patients with HCC were registered on the transplant waiting list: 35 (19.3%) patients dropped out during the waiting period and 146 (80.7%) patients underwent liver transplantation (LT). The median follow-up of this patient cohort was 4.2 years (IQR: 1.8-8.3). On c-statistics, the last NLR (AUROC = 67.4; P = 0.05) was the best predictor of dropout. The last PLR had an intermediate statistical ability (AUROC = 66.1; P = 0.07) to predict post-LT tumor recurrence. Patients with a NLR value >5.4 had poor 5-year intention-to-treat (ITT) survival rates (48.2 vs. 64.5%; P = 0.02). Conversely, PLR better stratified patients in relation to tumor-free survival (TFS) (80.7 vs. 91.6%; P = 0.02). NLR is a good predictor for the risk of dropout, while PLR is a good predictor for the risk of post-LT recurrence. Use of these markers, which are all available before LT, may represent an additional tool to refine the selection criteria of HCC liver recipients.

Intention-to-treat survival benefit of liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular cancer

The debate about the best approach to select patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT) is still ongoing. This study aims to identify the best variables allowing to discriminate between "high-" and "low-benefit" patients. To do so, the concept of intention-to-treat (ITT) survival benefit of LT has been created. Data of 2,103 adult HCC patients consecutively enlisted during the period 1987-2015 were analyzed. Three rigorous statistical steps were used in order to create the ITT survival benefit of LT: the development of an ITT LT and a non-LT survival model, and the individual prediction of the ITT survival benefit of LT defined as the difference between the median ITT survival with (based on the first model) and without LT (based on the second model) calculated for each enrolled patient. Four variables (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, alpha-fetoprotein, Milan-Criteria status, and radiological response) displayed a high effect in terms of delta benefit. According to these risk factors, four benefit groups were identified. Patients with three to four factors ("no-benefit group"; n = 405 of 2,103; 19.2%) had no benefit of LT compared to alternative treatments. Conversely, patients without any risk factor ("large-benefit group"; n = 108; 5.1%) yielded the highest benefit from LT reaching 60 months.

CONCLUSION

The ITT transplant survival benefit presented here allows physicians to better select HCC patients waiting for LT. The obtained stratification may lead to an improved and more equitable method of organ allocation. Patients without benefit should be de-listed, whereas patients with large benefit ratio should be prioritized for LT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1910-1919).

Use of octogenarian donors for liver transplantation: a survival analysis

Use of very old donors in liver transplantation (LT) is controversial because advanced donor age is associated with a higher risk for graft dysfunction and worse long-term results, especially for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive recipients. This was a retrospective, single-center review of primary, ABO-compatible LT performed between 2001 and 2010. Recipients were stratified in four groups based on donor age (<60 years; 60-69 years; 70-79 years and ≥80 years) and their outcomes were compared. A total of 842 patients were included: 348 (41.3%) with donors <60 years; 176 (20.9%) with donors 60-69 years; 233 (27.7%) with donors 70-79 years and 85 (10.1%) with donors ≥80 years. There was no difference across groups in terms of early (≤30 days) graft loss, and graft survival at 1 and 5 years was 90.5% and 78.6% for grafts <60 years; 88.6% and 81.3% for grafts 60-69 years; 87.6% and 75.1% for grafts 70-79 years and 84.7% and 77.1% for grafts ≥80 years (p = 0.065). In the group ≥80 years, the 5-year graft survival was lower for HCV-positive versus HCV-negative recipients (62.4% vs. 85.6%, p = 0.034). Based on our experience, grafts from donors ≥80 years may provide favorable results but require appropriate selection and allocation policies.

A Novel Prognostic Index in Patients With Hepatocellular Cancer Waiting for Liver Transplantation: Time-Radiological-response-Alpha-fetoprotein-INflammation (TRAIN) Score

OBJECTIVE

A novel and easy prognostic score based on the combination of pre-operatively available variables in patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT) has been developed from a long waiting time (WT) training set and then validated in a short-WT set.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The role of radiological response to loco-regional therapies, alpha-fetoprotein modification, inflammatory markers, and length of WT has been recently shown to be important selection criteria for the risk of intention-to-treat (ITT)-death and recurrence.

METHODS

The training set consisted of 179 HCC patients listed for LT during the period January 2000 to December 2012 from the UCL Brussels Transplant Centre; the validation set consisted of 110 patients listed during the period January 2005 to December 2014 from the Ancona Liver Centre.

RESULTS

The proposed Time-Radiological-response-Alpha-fetoprotein-INflammation (TRAIN) score was the best predictor of microvascular invasion. A TRAIN score ≥1.0 excellently stratified both the investigated populations in terms of ITT and recurrence survivals. When compared with Milan criteria, the proposed score allowed obtaining an increase of potentially transplantable patients (+8.9% in training set and 24.6% in validation set) without additive recurrence risks.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed TRAIN score is an easy selection tool based on variables available before LT. This score enables the selection process to be refined in the 2 different scenarios of long and short WT. In case of longer WT, the score is better at predicting risk of death during the WT; in case of short WT, the score is better at identifying risk of post-LT recurrence.

Balancing donor and recipient risk factors in liver transplantation: the value of D-MELD with particular reference to HCV recipients

Donor-recipient match is a matter of debate in liver transplantation. D-MELD (donor age × recipient biochemical model for end-stage liver disease [MELD]) and other factors were analyzed on a national Italian database recording 5946 liver transplants. Primary endpoint was to determine factors predictive of 3-year patient survival. D-MELD cutoff predictive of 5-year patient survival <50% (5yrsPS<50%) was investigated. A prognosis calculator was implemented (http://www.D-MELD.com). Differences among D-MELD deciles allowed their regrouping into three D-MELD classes (A < 338, B 338-1628, C >1628). At 3 years, the odds ratio (OR) for death was 2.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.44-2.85) in D-MELD class C versus B. The OR was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.24-0.66) in class A versus class B. Other predictors were hepatitis C virus (HCV; OR = 1.42; 95% CI, 1.11-1.81), hepatitis B virus (HBV; OR = 0.69; 95% CI, 0.51-0.93), retransplant (OR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.16-2.87) and low-volume center (OR = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.11-1.99). Cox regressions up to 90 months confirmed results. The hazard ratio was 1.97 (95% CI, 1.59-2.43) for D-MELD class C versus class B and 0.42 (95% CI, 0.29-0.60) for D-MELD class A versus class B. Recipient age, HCV, HBV and retransplant were also significant. The 5yrsPS<50% cutoff was identified only in HCV patients (D-MELD ≥ 1750). The innovative approach offered by D-MELD and covariates is helpful in predicting outcome after liver transplantation, especially in HCV recipients.

Development and Validation of a Comprehensive Model to Estimate Early Allograft Failure Among Patients Requiring Early Liver Retransplant

IMPORTANCE

Expansion of donor acceptance criteria for liver transplant increased the risk for early allograft failure (EAF), and although EAF prediction is pivotal to optimize transplant outcomes, there is no consensus on specific EAF indicators or timing to evaluate EAF. Recently, the Liver Graft Assessment Following Transplantation (L-GrAFT) algorithm, based on aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, platelet, and international normalized ratio kinetics, was developed from a single-center database gathered from 2002 to 2015.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a simplified comprehensive model estimating at day 10 after liver transplant the EAF risk at day 90 (the Early Allograft Failure Simplified Estimation [EASE] score) and, secondarily, to identify early those patients with unsustainable EAF risk who are suitable for retransplant.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicenter cohort study was designed to develop a score capturing a continuum from normal graft function to nonfunction after transplant. Both parenchymal and vascular factors, which provide an indication to list for retransplant, were included among the EAF determinants. The L-GrAFT kinetic approach was adopted and modified with fewer data entries and novel variables. The population included 1609 patients in Italy for the derivation set and 538 patients in the UK for the validation set; all were patients who underwent transplant in 2016 and 2017.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Early allograft failure was defined as graft failure (codified by retransplant or death) for any reason within 90 days after transplant.

RESULTS

At day 90 after transplant, the incidence of EAF was 110 of 1609 patients (6.8%) in the derivation set and 41 of 538 patients (7.6%) in the external validation set. Median (interquartile range) ages were 57 (51-62) years in the derivation data set and 56 (49-62) years in the validation data set. The EASE score was developed through 17 entries derived from 8 variables, including the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, blood transfusion, early thrombosis of hepatic vessels, and kinetic parameters of transaminases, platelet count, and bilirubin. Donor parameters (age, donation after cardiac death, and machine perfusion) were not associated with EAF risk. Results were adjusted for transplant center volume. In receiver operating characteristic curve analyses, the EASE score outperformed L-GrAFT, Model for Early Allograft Function, Early Allograft Dysfunction, Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index, donor age × Model for End-stage Liver Disease, and Donor Risk Index scores, estimating day 90 EAF in 87% (95% CI, 83%-91%) of cases in both the derivation data set and the internal validation data set. Patients could be stratified in 5 classes, with those in the highest class exhibiting unsustainable EAF risk.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found that the developed EASE score reliably estimated EAF risk. Knowledge of contributing factors may help clinicians to mitigate risk factors and guide them through the challenging clinical decision to allocate patients to early liver retransplant. The EASE score may be used in translational research across transplant centers.

Hepatic Epithelioid Hemangioendothelioma and Adult Liver Transplantation: Proposal for a Prognostic Score Based on the Analysis of the ELTR-ELITA Registry

BACKGROUND

Hepatic epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (HEHE) is a rare vascular tumor which has an intermediate aggressive behavior. Although the value of liver transplantation (LT) is well established, its place in the management of HEHE is still unclear. The aim of this study is to confirm, based on a very large patient cohort, the value of LT in the management of HEHE and to identify risk factors for post-LT recurrence.

METHODS

The outcome of 149 transplant recipients with HEHE recorded in the European Liver Transplant Registry during the period November 1984 to May 2014 was analyzed. Median post-LT follow-up was 7.6 years (interquartile range, 2.8-14.4).

RESULTS

Cox regression analysis showed that macrovascular invasion (hazard ratio [HR], 4.8; P < 0.001), pre-LT waiting time of 120 days or less (HR, 2.6; P = 0.01) and hilar lymph node invasion (HR = 2.2; P = 0.03), but not pre-LT extrahepatic disease, were significant risk factors for recurrence. These findings, which were also confirmed in a propensity score analysis, allowed the development of a HEHE-LT score enabling stratification of patients in relation to their risk of tumor recurrence. Patients with a score of 2 or less had a much better 5-year disease-free survival compared to those having a score of 6 or higher (93.9% vs 38.5%; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of this (largest in the world) HEHE adult liver recipient cohort clearly confirms the value of LT in the treatment of this rare disorder and also permits identification of patients at risk of posttransplant recurrence. Posttransplant follow-up should take the HEHE-LT score into account. Extrahepatic disease localization is reconfirmed not to be a contraindication for LT.

Use of Elderly Donors in Liver Transplantation: A Paired-match Analysis at a Single Center

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the use of elderly donors in liver transplantation (LT) and identify risk factors associated with a worse outcome.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Use of livers from very old donors could expand the donor pool but is not universally implemented.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, single-center medical record review. From January 2001 to December 2014, 1354 LTs were performed. After exclusion of donors <18 years, ABO-incompatible LT, re-LT and UNOS 1 status patients, LT recipients were stratified into 2 groups based on donor age: 18-69 (n=692) vs. ≥70 years (n=515) then matched using a propensity score approach. Two groups were finally matched (young group = 448 cases; old group = 515 cases).

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up was 5.0 (2.0-8.4) years. Comparing the 2 identified groups, no differences were observed regarding early retransplants (1.8 vs. 2.9; P = 0.3), HCV-related death (7.6 vs. 8.7%; P = 0.6), vascular (5.8 vs. 5.0%; P = 0.7), and biliary complications (16.5 vs. 18.6%; P = 0.4). On multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for graft loss were: HCV-positive recipient (HR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.6-2.7; P < 0.001), donor age (HR = 1.0; 95% CI = 1.0-1.0; P < 0.001), cold ischemia time (HR = 1.0; 95% CI = 1.0-1.0; P = 0.042), and donor history of diabetes mellitus (HR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.03-2.13; P = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of elderly donors is not associated per se with an increased risk of vascular and biliary complications. In the presence of cold ischemia time and diabetes mellitus, appropriate donor-to-recipient matching is warranted.

Risk factors and surgical management of anastomotic biliary complications after pediatric liver transplantation

Biliary complications (BCs) still remain the Achilles heel of liver transplantation (LT) with an overall incidence of 10% to 35% in pediatric series. We hypothesized that (1) the use of alternative techniques (reduced size, split, and living donor grafts) in pediatric LT may contribute to an increased incidence of BCs, and (2) surgery as a first treatment option for anastomotic BCs could allow a definitive cure for the majority of these patients. Four hundred twenty-nine primary pediatric LT procedures, including 88, 91, 47, and 203 whole, reduced size, split, and living donor grafts, respectively, that were performed between July 1993 and November 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Demographic and surgical variables were analyzed, and their respective impact on BCs was studied with univariate and multivariate analyses. The modalities of BC management were also reviewed. The 1- and 5-year patient survival rates were 94% and 90%, 89% and 85%, 94% and 89%, and 98% and 94% for whole, reduced size, split, and living donor liver grafts, respectively. The overall incidence of BCs was 23% (n = 98). Sixty were anastomotic complications [47 strictures (78%) and 13 fistulas (22%)]. The graft type was not found to be an independent risk factor for the development of BCs. According to a multivariate analysis, only hepatic artery thrombosis and acute rejection increased the risk of anastomotic BCs (P < 0.001 and P = 0.003, respectively). Anastomotic BCs were managed primarily with surgical repair in 59 of 60 cases with a primary patency rate of 80% (n = 47). These results suggest that (1) most of the BCs were anastomotic complications not influenced by the type of graft, and (2) the surgical management of anastomotic BCs may constitute the first and best therapeutic option.

Combination of biological and morphological parameters for the selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma waiting for liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

In the last several years, there has been no agreement on how to possibly expand the Milan criteria (MC) in the selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for listing for liver transplant (LT). The aim of the study is to evaluate morphological and biological tumor parameters to identify new expanded criteria for the selection of patients with HCC as candidates for LT.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 158 consecutive patients with HCC who underwent LT.

RESULTS

Twelve (7.6%) recurrences were observed. At multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >400 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR] 8.4, p<0.01) and total tumor diameter (TTD) >8 cm (OR 7.4, p=0.01) were the strongest predictors for recurrence. AFP-TTD criteria resulted in a low five-yr recurrence rate (4.9%) and an increased number of LT compared with the MC (22.2% increase). The five-yr disease-free survival rate was 74.4% in AFP-TTD criteria in patients, with a higher effectiveness in stratifying the cohort with respect to the MC.

CONCLUSIONS

Both AFP and TTD are good independent predictors of HCC recurrence. Their combination appears to obtain a better selection of candidates for LT without worsening patient survival and recurrence rates. This approach allows for an increase in the number of potentially transplantable patients.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma after successful treatment of macrovascular invasion - a multi-center retrospective cohort study

Macrovascular invasion is considered a contraindication to liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) due to a high risk of recurrence. The aim of the present multicenter study was to explore the outcome of HCC patients transplanted after a complete radiological regression of the vascular invasion by locoregional therapies and define sub-groups with better outcomes. Medical records of 45 patients were retrospectively reviewed, and imaging was centrally assessed by an expert liver radiologist. In the 30 patients with validated diagnosis of macrovascular invasion, overall survival was 60% at 5 years. Pretransplant alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) value was significantly different between patients with and without recurrence (P = 0.019), and the optimal AFP cutoff was 10ng/ml (area under curve = 0.78). Recurrence rate was 11% in patients with pretransplant AFP < 10ng/ml. The number of viable nodules (P = 0.008), the presence of residual HCC (P = 0.036), and satellite nodules (P = 0.001) on the explant were also significantly different between patients with and without recurrence. Selected HCC patients with radiological signs of vascular invasion could be considered for transplantation, provided that they previously underwent successful treatment of the macrovascular invasion resulting in a pretransplant AFP < 10 ng/ml. Their expected risk of post-transplant HCC recurrence is 11%, and further prospective validation is needed.

Direct-acting antivirals and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C: A few lights and many shadows

With the introduction of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA), the rate of sustained virological response (SVR) in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) has radically improved to over 95%. Robust scientific evidence supports a beneficial role of SVR after interferon therapy in the progression of cirrhosis, resulting in a decreased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, a debate on the impact of DAAs on the development of HCC is ongoing. This review aimed to analyse the scientific literature regarding the risk of HCC in terms of its recurrence and occurrence after the use of DAAs to eradicate HCV infection. Among 11 studies examining HCC occurrence, the de novo incidence rate ranged from 0 to 7.4% (maximum follow-up: 18 mo). Among 18 studies regarding HCC recurrence, the rate ranged from 0 to 54.4% (maximum "not well-defined" follow-up: 32 mo). This review highlights the major difficulties in interpreting data and reconciling the results of the included studies. These difficulties include heterogeneous cohorts, potential misclassifications of HCC prior to DAA therapy, the absence of an adequate control group, short follow-up times and different kinds of follow-up. Moreover, no clinical feature-based scoring system accounts for the molecular characteristics and pathobiology of the tumours. Nonetheless, this review does not suggest that there is a higher rate of de novo HCC occurrence or recurrence after DAA therapy in patients with previous HCV infection.

Dynamic α-Fetoprotein Response and Outcomes After Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

IMPORTANCE

Accurate preoperative prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplant is the mainstay of selection tools used by transplant-governing bodies to discern candidacy for patients with HCC. Although progress has been made, few tools incorporate objective measures of tumor biological characteristics, resulting in inclusion of patients with high recurrence rates and exclusion of others who could otherwise be cured.

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate the New York/California (NYCA) score, a recently published multi-institutional US HCC selection tool that was the first model incorporating a dynamic α-fetoprotein response (AFP-R) and compare the validated score with currently accepted HCC selection tools, namely, the Milan Criteria (MC), the French-AFP (F-AFP), and Metroticket 2.0 models.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective, multicenter prognostic analysis of prospectively collected databases of 2236 adults undergoing liver transplant for HCC was conducted at 3 US, 1 Canadian, and 4 European centers from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2013. The AFP-R was measured as the difference between maximum and final pre-liver transplant AFP level. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk regression analyses examined recurrence-free and overall survival. Receiver operating characteristic analyses and net reclassification index were used to compare NYCA with MC, F-AFP, and Metroticket 2.0. Data analysis was performed from June 2019 to April 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary study outcome was 5-year recurrence-free survival; overall survival was the secondary outcome.

RESULTS

Of 2236 patients, 1808 (80.9%) were men; mean (SD) age was 58.3 (7.96) years. A total of 545 patients (24.4%) did not meet the MC. The NYCA score proved valid on competing risk regression analysis, accurately predicting recurrence-free and overall survival (5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence risk in NYCA risk categories was 9.5% for low-, 20.5%, for acceptable-, and 40.5% for high-risk categories; P < .001 for all). The NYCA also predicted recurrence-free survival on a center-specific level: 453 of 545 patients (83.1%) who did not meet MC, 213 of 308 (69.2%) who did not meet the French-AFP, 292 of 384 (76.1%) who did not meet Metroticket 2.0 would be recategorized into NYCA low- and acceptable-risk groups (>75% 5-year recurrence-free survival). The Harrell C statistic for the validated NYCA score was 0.66 compared with 0.59 for the MC and 0.57 for the F-AFP models (P < .001). The net reclassification index for NYCA was 8.1 vs MC, 12.9 vs F-AFP, and 10.1 vs Metroticket 2.0.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study appears to externally validate the importance of AFP-R in the selection of patients with HCC for liver transplant. The AFP-R represents one of the truly objective measures of biological characteristics available before transplantation. Incorporation of AFP-R into selection criteria allows safe expansion of MC and other models, offering liver transplant to patients with acceptable tumor biological characteristics who would otherwise be denied potential cure.

Recurrence of hepatocellular cancer after liver transplantation: the role of primary resection and salvage transplantation in East and West

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Greater tumor aggressiveness and different management modalities of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT) may explain the higher recurrence rates reported in Asia. This study investigates the prognostic factors for HCC recurrence in a Western and an Eastern HCC patient cohort in order to analyze the respective roles of tumor- and management-related factors on the incidence of post-LT HCC recurrence.

METHODS

Data of 273 HCC patients, transplanted during the period January 1999-March 2009, were obtained from the Rome Inter-University Liver Transplant Consortium (n=157) and Hong Kong University (n=116) databases. Median follow-up was 4.3 years (range: 0.2-12). Recurrence rate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the entire population and on Milan criteria-in (MC-in) patients.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis on the entire population identified four independent risk factors for post-LT HCC recurrence: microvascular invasion (odds ratio, OR=4.88; p=0.001), poor tumor grading (OR=6.86; p=0.002), diameter of the largest tumor (OR=4.72; p=0.05), and previous liver resection (LR) (OR=3.34; p=0.04). After removal of LR, only tumor-related variables were independent risk factors for recurrence. When only MC-in patients were analyzed, no difference was observed between the two cohorts in terms of recurrence rate after LR patient removal.

CONCLUSIONS

LR followed by salvage "for HCC recurrence" LT represents the main reason for a higher HCC recurrence rate in the Hong Kong patients, but not LR followed by salvage "for liver failure" LT in the Roman group. This approach towards HCC before LT may not be universally applicable. The precise patient background must be taken into account in order to identify the best pre-LT strategy.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular cancer: UCL experience in 137 adult cirrhotic patients. Alpha-foetoprotein level and locoregional treatment as refined selection criteria

Liver transplantation (LT) is a validated treatment for selected cirrhotics with hepatocellular cancer (HCC). A retrospective single center study including 137 recipients having proven HCC was done to refine inclusion criteria for LT as well as to look at impact of locoregional treatment (LRT) on outcome. At pre-LT imaging, 42 (30.6%) patients were Milan criteria (MC)-OUT; 28 (20.4%) were University of California San Francisco criteria (UCSFC)-OUT. Pre-LT LRT was performed in 109 (79.6%) patients. Multivariate analysis identified four factors to be independently predictive of recurrence: tumour number >3, AFP level ≥400 ng/ml, microvascular invasion and rejection needing anti-lymphocytic antibodies. When considering pre-transplant variables only, AFP level ≥400 ng/ml (HR = 5.13; P < 0.0001) was the unique risk factor for recurrence; conversely, application of LRT was protective (HR = 0.42; P = 0.04). MC-IN patients having LRT (n = 79) had the best 5-year tumour-free survival (TFS) (91.6%). MC-IN patients without LRT (n = 16) and MC-OUT patients with LRT (n = 30) had similar good TFS (72.7% vs.77.5%); finally MC-OUT patients without LRT (n = 12) had the worst results (45.0%; vs. 1st group: P < 0.0001). Immediate pre-LT AFP and aggressive pre-transplant LRT strategy, especially in MC-OUT patients, are both important elements to further expand inclusion criteria without compromising long-term results of HCC liver recipients.

Is minimal, [almost] steroid-free immunosuppression a safe approach in adult liver transplantation? Long-term outcome of a prospective, double blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, investigator-driven study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the safety of minimal immunosuppression (IS) in liver transplantation (LT).

BACKGROUND

The lack of long-term follow-up studies, including pathologic data, has led to a protean handling of IS in LT.

METHODS

Between February 2000 and September 2004, 156 adults were enrolled in a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled minimization trial comparing tacrolimus placebo (TAC-PLAC) and TAC short-term steroid (TAC-STER) IS. All patients had a minimum clinical, biochemical, and histological follow-up of 5 years.

RESULTS

Five-year actual patient and graft survival rates in TAC-PLAC and TAC-STER groups were 78.1% and 82.1% (P=0.89) and 74.2% and 76.9% (P=0.90), respectively. Five-year biopsies were available in 112 (89.6%) of 125 survivors. Twelve patients refused a biopsy because of their excellent evolution; tissue material was insufficient in 1 patient; 11 had normal liver tests; and 2 patients had developed alcoholic and secondary biliary cirrhosis. Histology was normal in 44 (39.3%) patients; 35 (31.3%) had disease recurrence. The remaining biopsies showed nonspecific chronic hepatitis (14.3%), mild inflammatory infiltrates (10.7%), and steatosis (3.5%). All findings were equally distributed between both groups. In each group, 3 patients (4.8%) presented with acute cellular rejection after the first year and only 1 (0.9%) TAC-PLAC patient developed chronic rejection after IS withdrawal because of pneumonitis. Arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, renal insufficiency, hypercholesterolemia, gout, and obesity were equally low in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Excellent long-term results can be obtained under minimal IS and absence of steroids. TAC-based monotherapy is feasible in most adult liver recipients until 5 years of follow-up.

Evaluation of the Intention-to-Treat Benefit of Living Donation in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Awaiting a Liver Transplant

IMPORTANCE

Living-donor liver transplant (LDLT) offers advantages over deceased-donor liver transplant (DDLT) of improved intention-to-treat outcomes and management of the shortage of deceased-donor allografts. However, conflicting data still exist on the outcomes of LDLT in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential survival benefit of an LDLT in patients with HCC from the time of waiting list inscription.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicenter cohort study with an intention-to-treat design analyzed the data of patients aged 18 years or older who had an HCC diagnosis and were on a waiting list for a first transplant. Patients from 12 collaborative centers in Europe, Asia, and the US who were on a transplant waiting list between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2017, composed the international cohort. The Toronto cohort comprised patients from 1 transplant center in Toronto, Ontario, Canada who were on a waiting list between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2015. The international cohort centers performed either an LDLT or a DDLT, whereas the Toronto cohort center was selected for its capability to perform both LDLT and DDLT. The benefit of LDLT was tested in the 2 cohorts before and after undergoing an inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis. Data were analyzed from February 1 to May 31, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Intention-to-treat death was defined as a patient death that occurred for any reason and was calculated from the time of waiting list inscription for liver transplant to the last follow-up date (December 31, 2019). Four multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models for intention-to-treat death were created.

RESULTS

A total of 3052 patients were analyzed in the international cohort, of whom 2447 were men (80.2%) and the median (IQR) age at first referral was 58 (53-63) years. The Toronto cohort comprised 906 patients, of whom 743 were men (82.0%) and the median (IQR) age at first referral was 59 (53-63) years. In all the settings, LDLT was an independent protective factor, reducing the risk of overall death by 49% in the pre-IPTW analysis for the international cohort (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.36-0.71; P < .001), 33% in the post-IPTW analysis for the international cohort (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.53-0.85; P = .001), 43% in the pre-IPTW analysis for the Toronto cohort (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.45-0.73; P < .001), and 48% in the post-IPTW analysis for the Toronto cohort (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.65; P < .001). The discriminatory ability of the mathematical models further improved in all of the cases in which LDLT was incorporated.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that having a potential live donor could decrease the intention-to-treat risk of death in patients with HCC who are on a waiting list for a liver transplant. This benefit is associated with the elimination of the dropout risk and has been reported in centers in which both LDLT and DDLT options are equally available.

Prognostic role of artificial intelligence among patients with hepatocellular cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prediction of survival after the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been widely investigated, yet remains inadequate. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a valid adjunct to traditional statistics due to the ability to process vast amounts of data and find hidden interconnections between variables. AI and deep learning are increasingly employed in several topics of liver cancer research, including diagnosis, pathology, and prognosis.

AIM

To assess the role of AI in the prediction of survival following HCC treatment.

METHODS

A web-based literature search was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines using the keywords "artificial intelligence", "deep learning" and "hepatocellular carcinoma" (and synonyms). The specific research question was formulated following the patient (patients with HCC), intervention (evaluation of HCC treatment using AI), comparison (evaluation without using AI), and outcome (patient death and/or tumor recurrence) structure. English language articles were retrieved, screened, and reviewed by the authors. The quality of the papers was assessed using the Risk of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool. Data were extracted and collected in a database.

RESULTS

Among the 598 articles screened, nine papers met the inclusion criteria, six of which had low-risk rates of bias. Eight articles were published in the last decade; all came from eastern countries. Patient sample size was extremely heterogenous (n = 11-22926). AI methodologies employed included artificial neural networks (ANN) in six studies, as well as support vector machine, artificial plant optimization, and peritumoral radiomics in the remaining three studies. All the studies testing the role of ANN compared the performance of ANN with traditional statistics. Training cohorts were used to train the neural networks that were then applied to validation cohorts. In all cases, the AI models demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with traditional statistics with significantly improved areas under the curve.

CONCLUSION

AI applied to survival prediction after HCC treatment provided enhanced accuracy compared with conventional linear systems of analysis. Improved transferability and reproducibility will facilitate the widespread use of AI methodologies.

The DESCARTES-Nantes survey of kidney transplant recipients displaying clinical operational tolerance identifies 35 new tolerant patients and 34 almost tolerant patients

BACKGROUND

Kidney recipients maintaining a prolonged allograft survival in the absence of immunosuppressive drugs and without evidence of rejection are supposed to be exceptional. The ERA-EDTA-DESCARTES working group together with Nantes University launched a European-wide survey to identify new patients, describe them and estimate their frequency for the first time.

METHODS

Seventeen coordinators distributed a questionnaire in 256 transplant centres and 28 countries in order to report as many 'operationally tolerant' patients (TOL; defined as having a serum creatinine <1.7 mg/dL and proteinuria <1 g/day or g/g creatinine despite at least 1 year without any immunosuppressive drug) and 'almost tolerant' patients (minimally immunosuppressed patients (MIS) receiving low-dose steroids) as possible. We reported their number and the total number of kidney transplants performed at each centre to calculate their frequency.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty-seven questionnaires were returned and we identified 66 TOL (61 with complete data) and 34 MIS patients. Of the 61 TOL patients, 26 were previously described by the Nantes group and 35 new patients are presented here. Most of them were noncompliant patients. At data collection, 31/35 patients were alive and 22/31 still operationally tolerant. For the remaining 9/31, 2 were restarted on immunosuppressive drugs and 7 had rising creatinine of whom 3 resumed dialysis. Considering all patients, 10-year death-censored graft survival post-immunosuppression weaning reached 85% in TOL patients and 100% in MIS patients. With 218 913 kidney recipients surveyed, cumulative incidences of operational tolerance and almost tolerance were estimated at 3 and 1.5 per 10 000 kidney recipients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In kidney transplantation, operational tolerance and almost tolerance are infrequent findings associated with excellent long-term death-censored graft survival.

Des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin in hepatocellular cancer patients waiting for liver transplant: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The use of des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) as a predictor of the risk of recurrence of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) after liver transplant (LT) has recently gained interest, especially in view of the recent extension of the eligibility criteria of these patients for LT. The aim of the present study is to look into this important matter based on a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic literature review about the role of DCP in the specific setting of LT for HCC has been conducted.

RESULTS

Three selected studies, which showed a high rate of homogeneity (I2 = 0.0%), confirmed that the tumor marker DCP is a useful predictive factor, indicating a 5-fold increased risk for HCC recurrence after LT (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The meta-analysis enabled us to underline the importance of DCP in the refinement of the eligibility criteria of HCC patients for LT. This information, based on Japanese studies performed in the setting of living-donor LT only, needs further validation in the Western world both in the setting of post-mortem and living-donor LT.

Optimizing systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: the key role of liver function

The number of effective systemic therapies for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is rapidly increasing, and the advent of immunotherapy has changed the treatment paradigm for these patients, leading to significantly improved survival outcomes. However, many patients with HCC will continue to receive tyrosine kinase inhibitors, partly because of contraindications to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Currently, the best sequential first- and second-line systemic treatment remains elusive. Maintenance of optimal liver function is crucial, it is likely to impinge on temporary or permanent treatment discontinuation, and should also be considered when defining the treatment sequence. Hepatic decompensation, which does not always coincide with disease progression, is part of this complex dynamically evolving system, and must be promptly recognized and adequately managed to allow the patient to continue in the therapeutic course. The purpose of this review is to highlight and summarize the evidence on the efficacy and safety of systemic agents, with a focus on the impact of underlying cirrhosis, and to suggest new clinical outcomes for randomized controlled trials for advanced HCC to better assess the net health benefit in this specific setting.

Abdominal wall hernia in cirrhotic patients: emergency surgery results in higher morbidity and mortality

BACKGROUND

Patients with cirrhosis have a high incidence of abdominal wall hernias and carry an elevated perioperative morbidity and mortality. The optimal surgical management strategy as well as timing of abdominal hernia repair remains controversial.

METHODS

A cohort study of 67 cirrhotic patients who underwent hernia repair during the period of January 1998-December 2009 at the University Hospital of Sao Paulo were included. After meeting study criteria, a total of 56 patients who underwent 61 surgeries were included in the final analysis. Patient characteristics, morbidity (Clavien score), mortality, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, MELD score, use of prosthetic material, and elective or emergency surgery have been analysed with regards to morbidity and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

The median MELD score of the patient population was 14 (range: 6 to 24). Emergency surgery was performed in 34 patients because of ruptured hernia (n = 13), incarceration (n = 10), strangulation (n = 4), and skin necrosis or ulceration (n = 7). Elective surgery was performed in 27 cases. After a multivariable analysis, emergency surgery (OR 7.31; p 0.017) and Child-Pugh C (OR 4.54; p 0.037) were risk factors for major complications. Moreover, emergency surgery was a unique independent risk factor for 30-day mortality (OR 10.83; p 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher morbidity and mortality are associated with emergency surgery in advanced cirrhotic patients. Therefore, using cirrhosis as a contraindication for hernia repair in all patients may be reconsidered in the future, especially after controlling ascites and in those patients with hernias that are becoming symptomatic or show signs of possible skin necrosis and rupture. Future prospective randomized studies are needed to confirm this surgical strategy.

Overview of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and The ITA.LI.CA Cohort Derived Estimate of Amenability Rate to Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Clinical Practice

Despite progress in our understanding of the biology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), this tumour remains difficult-to-cure for several reasons, starting from the particular disease environment where it arises-advanced chronic liver disease-to its heterogeneous clinical and biological behaviour. The advent, and good results, of immunotherapy for cancer called for the evaluation of its potential application also in HCC, where there is evidence of intra-hepatic immune response activation. Several studies advanced our knowledge of immune checkpoints expression in HCC, thus suggesting that immune checkpoint blockade may have a strong rationale even in the treatment of HCC. According to this background, initial studies with tremelimumab, a cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) inhibitor, and nivolumab, a programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) antibody, showed promising results, and further studies exploring the effects of other immune checkpoint inhibitors, alone or with other drugs, are currently underway. However, we are still far from the identification of the correct setting, and sequence, where these drugs might be used in clinical practice, and their actual applicability in real-life is unknown. This review focuses on HCC immunobiology and on the potential of immune checkpoint blockade therapy for this tumour, with a critical evaluation of the available trials on immune checkpoint blocking antibodies treatment for HCC. Moreover, it assesses the potential applicability of immune checkpoint inhibitors in the real-life setting, by analysing a large, multicentre cohort of Italian patients with HCC.