Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of probiotics on blood pressure: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials

Previous human clinical trials have shown that probiotic consumption may improve blood pressure (BP) control. The aim of the present systematic review was to clarify the effects of probiotics on BP using a meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials. PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library (Central), Physiotherapy Evidence Database, and Clinicaltrial.gov databases were searched until January 2014 to identify eligible articles. Meta-analysis using a random-effects model was chosen to analyze the impact of combined trials. Nine trials were included. Probiotic consumption significantly changed systolic BP by -3.56 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -6.46 to -0.66) and diastolic BP by -2.38 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -2.38 to -0.93) compared with control groups. A greater reduction was found with multiple as compared with single species of probiotics, for both systolic and diastolic BP. Subgroup analysis of trials with baseline BP ≥130/85 mm Hg compared with <130/85 mm Hg found a more significant improvement in diastolic BP. Duration of intervention <8 weeks did not result in a significant reduction in systolic or diastolic BP. Furthermore, subgroup analysis of trials with daily dose of probiotics <10(11) colony-forming units did not result in a significant meta-analysis effect. The present meta-analysis suggests that consuming probiotics may improve BP by a modest degree, with a potentially greater effect when baseline BP is elevated, multiple species of probiotics are consumed, the duration of intervention is ≥8 weeks, or daily consumption dose is ≥10(11) colony-forming units.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990-2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input.

Findings

In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6-4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4-499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4-225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9-3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1-309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively.

Interpretation

Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries.

Effects of probiotics consumption on lowering lipids and CVD risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

This meta-analysis examined the effect of probiotics on the reduction of lipid components and coexisting risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease. All randomized controlled trials published in English on PubMed and Scopus from 2000 to 2014 were systematically searched. Using the PEDro scale to assess the quality of studies, a total of 15 studies with 788 subjects were selected for inclusion in the analysis. The mean difference and effect size with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were extracted from individual studies. Statistically significant pooled effects of probiotics were found on reduction of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and inflammatory markers. Subgroup analysis revealed statistically significant effects of probiotics on total cholesterol and LDL when the medium was fermented milk or yogurt (P < 0.001) compared to capsule form, consumption was at least 8 weeks in duration (P < 0.001), and the probiotics consisted of multiple strains (P < 0.001) rather than a single strain. A significant reduction was found in LDL in trials which contained Lactobacillus Acidophilus strain (P < 0.001) compared to other types of strains. Our findings suggest that probiotic supplementation use is effective in lowering the lipid level and coexisting factors associated with cardiovascular disease.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Glucose- and glycaemic factor-lowering effects of probiotics on diabetes: a meta-analysis of randomised placebo-controlled trials

This meta-analysis examined the effect of probiotics on glucose and glycaemic factors in diabetes and its associated risk factors. All randomised-controlled trials published in English in multiple databases from January 2000 to June 2015 were systematically searched. Only studies that addressed glucose- and glycaemic-related factors as outcome variables were included. The main outcomes of interest in trials were mean changes in glucose, HbA1c, insulin and homoeostasis model assessment-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Using the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale to assess the quality of studies, a total of eleven studies with 614 subjects were included. The pooled mean difference and effect size with a 95% CI were extracted using a random-effect model. It was found that there are statistically significant pooled mean differences between the probiotics and the placebo-controlled groups on the reduction of glucose (-0·52 mmol/l, 95% CI -0·92, -0·11 mmol/l; P=0·01) and HbA1c (-0·32%, 95% CI -0·57, -0·07%; P=0·01). There was no statistically significant pooled mean difference between the probiotics and the placebo-controlled groups on the reduction of insulin (-0·48 µIU/ml, 95% CI -1·34, 0·38 µIU/ml; P=0·27) and HOMA-IR (pooled effect of -0·44, 95% CI -1·57, 0·70; P=0·45). Meta-regression analysis identified that probiotics had significant effects on reduction of glucose, HbA1c, insulin and HOMA-IR in participants with diabetes, but not in participants with other risk factors. The present meta-analysis suggested that probiotics may be used as an important dietary supplement in reducing the glucose metabolic factors associated with diabetes.

Green tea catechins and blood pressure: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

PURPOSE

Although previous literature has reported that regular green tea consumption may improve blood pressure, the evidence from these studies is not consistent. The present study systematically reviewed randomised controlled trials and examined the effect of green tea consumption on blood pressure using meta-analysis.

METHODS

Search of ProQuest, PubMed, Scopus and Cochrane Library (CENTERAL) was conducted, to identify eligible articles. Articles from 1995 to 2013 were included. A random-effect model was chosen to calculate the effect of combined trials.

RESULT

Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis. Green tea consumption significantly changed systolic blood pressure, by -2.08 mm Hg (95% CI -3.06, -1.05), and diastolic blood pressure, by -1.71 mm Hg (95% CI -2.86, -0.56), compared to the control. Changes in lipid profile, blood glucose and body mass index were also assessed in the meta-analysis. A significant reduction was found in total cholesterol (-0.15 mmol/L [95% CI -0.27, -0.02]) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.16 mmol/L [95% CI -0.22, -0.09]). Changes in other parameters did not reach statistical significance. Subgroup analysis suggested a greater reduction in both systolic and diastolic blood pressure in studies that included participants with a baseline mean systolic blood pressure of ≥ 130 mm Hg, and studies involving consuming green tea as an extract.

CONCLUSION

The present meta-analysis suggests that green tea and its catechins may improve blood pressure, and the effect may be greater in those with systolic blood pressure ≥ 130 mm Hg. The meta-analysis also suggests that green tea catechins may improve total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

Dietary pattern and its association with the prevalence of obesity, hypertension and other cardiovascular risk factors among Chinese older adults

AIM

This article examined the association between dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors in Chinese older adults.

METHODS

For this study, older adults with one or more cardiovascular risk factors or a history of cardiovascular disease were randomly selected using health check medical records from the Changshu and Beijing Fangshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Exploratory factor analysis and cluster analysis was used to extract dietary pattern factors. Log binomial regression analysis was used to analyse the association between dietary patterns and chronic disease related risk factors.

RESULTS

Four factors were found through factor analysis. A high level of internal consistency was obtained, with a high Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.83. Cluster analysis identified three dietary patterns: healthy diet, Western diet, and balanced diet. Findings in this sample of Chinese adults correspond to those reported in previous studies, indicating that a Western diet is significantly related to likelihood of having obesity, hypertension and the metabolic syndrome. The identification of distinct dietary patterns among Chinese older adults and the nutritional status of people with chronic diseases suggest that the three dietary patterns have a reasonable level of discriminant validity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that a FFQ is a valid and reliable tool to assess the dietary patterns of individuals with chronic diseases in small- to medium-size urban and rural settings in China. It also validates the significant association between dietary pattern and cardiovascular disease risk factors, including body mass index, blood pressure, triglycerides, and metabolic conditions. Clinical diagnosis of chronic disease further confirmed this relationship in Chinese older adults.

A comparison of executive function in very preterm and term infants at 8 months corrected age

BACKGROUND

Executive function (EF) emerges in infancy and continues to develop throughout childhood. Executive dysfunction is believed to contribute to learning and attention problems in children at school age. Children born very preterm are more prone to these problems than their full-term peers.

AIM

To compare EF in very preterm and full-term infants at 8 months after expected date of delivery.

SUBJECTS

37 very preterm infants without identified disabilities, and 74 gender and age matched healthy full-term infants. The very preterm infants were all

OUTCOME MEASURES

EF tasks which measured working memory, inhibition of distraction, and planning at 8 months after expected date of delivery.

RESULTS

The very preterm infants performed significantly more poorly than the full-term infants on all measures of executive function. No significant differences were found between very preterm and full-term infants on any of potentially confounding variables of, infant temperament, maternal education, family income and maternal psychological wellbeing. Very preterm infants had significantly lower scores on the Mental Development Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Development Index (PDI) on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID II), however when this was partialled out the differences in EF scores remained. Medical complications, lower birthweight and lower gestation age were all found to adversely affect the performance of very preterm infants on executive function tasks.

CONCLUSION

Very preterm infants performed more poorly than full-term infants on measures of EF. Further follow up studies are required to investigate whether EF measures in infancy can predict learning and attention outcome at school age.

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Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings

• Analysis of Variance
• Chi-Square Distribution
• Child Development
• Cognition
• Humans
• Infant
• Infant, Newborn
• Infant, Premature
• Memory

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Collaborators Collapse

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effects of Probiotics on Necrotizing Enterocolitis, Sepsis, Intraventricular Hemorrhage, Mortality, Length of Hospital Stay, and Weight Gain in Very Preterm Infants: A Meta-Analysis

Probiotics are increasingly used as a supplement to prevent adverse health outcomes in preterm infants. We conducted a systematic review, meta-analysis, and subgroup analysis of findings from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to assess the magnitude of the effect of the probiotics on health outcomes among very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants. Relevant articles from January 2003 to June 2017 were selected from a broad range of databases, including Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Embase. Studies were included if they used an RCT design, involved a VLBW infant (birthweight <1500 g or gestational age <32 wk) population, included a probiotic intervention group, measured necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) as a primary outcome, and measured sepsis, mortality, length of hospital stay, weight gain, and intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) as additional outcomes. The initial database search yielded 132 potentially relevant articles and 32 (n = 8998 infants) RCTs were included in the final meta-analysis. Subgroup analysis was used to evaluate the effects of the moderators on the outcome variables. In the probiotics group, it was found that NEC was reduced by 37% (95% CI: 0.51%, 0.78%), sepsis by 37% (95% CI: 0.72%, 0.97%), mortality by 20% (95% CI: 0.67%, 0.95%), and length of hospital stay by 3.77 d (95% CI: -5.94, -1.60 d). These findings were all significant when compared with the control group. There was inconsistent use of strain types among some of the studies. The results indicate that probiotic consumption can significantly reduce the risk of developing medical complications associated with NEC and sepsis, reduce mortality and length of hospital stay, and promote weight gain in VLBW infants. Probiotics are more effective when taken in breast milk and formula form, consumed for <6 wk, administered with a dosage of <109 CFU/d, and include multiple strains. Probiotics are not effective in reducing the incidence of IVH in VLBW infants.

The efficacy of cognitive behavioural therapy in somatoform disorders and medically unexplained physical symptoms: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to update and give an overview of the evidence from published literature that focused on the efficacy of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) in the management of somatoform disorders and medically unexplained physical symptoms (MUPS).

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was carried out through an electronic search of various databases on randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Primary outcome was the severity of somatic symptoms. Secondary outcomes were also measured based on severity of anxiety symptoms, severity of depressive symptoms, social functioning, physical functioning, doctor visits and the compliance with CBT, as well as follow-up visits. Effects were summarized by a random effects model using mean differences or odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 15 RCTs comprising 1671 patients with somatoform disorders or MUPS were enrolled in our systematic review and meta-analysis. The main analysis revealed that CBT could alleviate somatic symptoms: -1.31 (95% CI: -2.23 to -0.39, p = 0.005); anxiety symptoms: -1.89 (95% CI: -2.91 to -0.86; p < 0.001); depressive symptoms: -1.93 (95% CI: -3.56 to -0.31; p = 0.020); improve physical functioning: 4.19 (95% CI: 1.90 to 6.49; p < 0.001). The efficacy of CBT on alleviating somatic symptoms, anxiety and depressive symptoms were sustained on follow-up. CBT may not be effective in reducing the number of doctor visits: -1.23 (95% CI: -2.97 to 0.51; p = 0.166); and improving social functioning: 3.27 (95% CI: -0.08 to 6.63; p = 0.056). The results of subgroup analysis indicated that CBT was particularly beneficial when the duration of session was more than 50 min to reduce the severity of somatic symptoms from pre to post treatment time, when it was group based and applied affective and developed good interpersonal strategy during the treatment. Longer duration and frequency such as more than 10 sessions and 12 weeks treatments had significant effect on reduction of the comorbid symptoms including depression and anxiety, but they may underpin low level of compliance of CBT based treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

CBT is effective for the treatment of somatoform disorders and MUPS by reducing physical symptoms, psychological distress and disability.

Effects of Probiotics in Preterm Infants: A Network Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Probiotics have proven to be effective in promoting premature infants' health, but the optimal usage is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To compare probiotic supplements for premature infants.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and ProQuest from inception of these databases to June 1, 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized trials of probiotic supplement intervention for preterm infants were screened by 2 reviewers independently. The primary outcomes were mortality and the morbidity of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Secondary outcomes were morbidity of sepsis, time to achieve full enteral feeding, and length of hospital stay.

DATA EXTRACTION

The data of primary and secondary outcomes were extracted by 2 reviewers and pooled with a random-effects model.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 45 trials with 12 320 participants. Bifidobacterium plus Lactobacillus was associated with lower rates of mortality (risk ratio 0.56; 95% credible interval 0.34-0.84) and NEC morbidity (0.47; 0.27-0.79) in comparison to the placebo; Lactobacillus plus prebiotic was associated with lower rates of NEC morbidity (0.06; 0.01-0.41) in comparison to the placebo; Bifidobacterium plus prebiotic had the highest probability of having the lowest rate of mortality (surface under the cumulative ranking curve 83.94%); and Lactobacillus plus prebiotic had the highest probability of having the lowest rate of NEC (surface under the cumulative ranking curve 95.62%).

LIMITATIONS

In few studies did authors report the data of infants with a lower birth weight or gestational age.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficacy of single probiotic supplements is limited, compared to combined use of probiotics. To achieve optimal effect on premature infant health, combined use of prebiotic and probiotic, especially Lactobacillus or Bifidobacterium, is recommended.

Efficacy of Probiotics in Patients of Cardiovascular Disease Risk: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

This meta-analysis examined the effect of probiotics on outcomes associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors (high blood pressure, overweight BMI, high cholesterol and triglycerides, elevated HbA1c and serum glucose). All randomised controlled trials publish on PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Grey Literature and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) from 1990 to 2020 were systematically searched. The PEDro scale was used to assess the quality of studies. A total of 34 studies with 2177 adults were selected for inclusion in the analysis. The mean difference and effect size with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were analysed for the pooled results. Statistically significant pooled effects of probiotics were found in the reduction of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL-C, serum glucose, HbA1C and BMI; and elevation of HDL-C. No significant changes were observed in the outcome of triglycerides. Subgroup analysis revealed statistically significant effects of probiotics on the treatment of risk factors, with results favouring longer duration of treatment (> 1.5 months), use of alternate formulations (kefir and powder), higher dosage of probiotics (> 1.0 × 109 CFU), lower rate of study attrition (< 15%), double blinding of the study, diabetic patients and female populations. In summary, our meta-analysis showed a highly significant reduction in SBP, DBP associated with type 2 diabetes and in patients with diabetes mellitus, milk intake and more than 1.5 months duration intake. The effect on the reduction of total cholesterol LDL-C was associated with diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, yoghurt intake and less than 1.5 months probiotic intake. The effect on the reduction of glucose and HbA1c was associated with diabetes, small dosage of probiotics, milk type and less than 1.5 months duration intake. Additionally, probiotic supplement had a beneficial effect in reducing BMI associated with obesity, higher dosage intake of probiotics and more than 1.5 months duration of intake.

The effects of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease self-management interventions on improvement of quality of life in COPD patients: A meta-analysis

This article aimed to analyse the outcome of self-management randomised control trials and their impact upon chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients' health outcomes using meta-analysis approach. PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science databases and Cochrane Library, were searched for articles between 1990 and December 2015 by two researchers. Self-management programs significantly improved patients' quality of life across all domains of the St George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) (activity -2.21 (95% CI: -3.61 to -0.80), p = 0.002; impact -3.30 (95% CI: -5.28 to -1.32), p = 0.001; symptoms -3.12 (95% CI: -4.94 to -1.03), p = 0.001; total -3.32 (95% CI: -4.60 to -2.04), p < 0.001), the six-minute walk test (-30.50 (95% CI: 3.32 to 57.68), p = 0.028), and across three domains of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease self-efficacy scale (negative effect -1.22 (95% CI: -2.31 to -0.14), p = 0.027; physical exertion -1.27 (95% CI: -2.52 to -0.02), p = 0.047; behavioural risk factors -0.58 (95% CI: -0.99 to -0.16), p = 0.007). Subgroup analyses revealed that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease education (p < 0.01) was the strongest component with improvements on all aspects of the SGRQ and the six-minute walk test. Providing an exacerbation action plan significantly improved SGRQ activity and impact scores whilst exercise information had a positive effect on activity and symptom scores (p < 0.05). Interventions with a duration of less than five weeks (p < 0.05) significantly improved symptom and activity scores, in addition to the number of patient hospital admissions. Thus, self-management interventions are effective at improving the health outcomes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients, especially when disease education is provided.

Community-Based Mind-Body Meditative Tai Chi Program and Its Effects on Improvement of Blood Pressure, Weight, Renal Function, Serum Lipoprotein, and Quality of Life in Chinese Adults With Hypertension

Obesity, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and poor quality of life are common conditions associated with hypertension, and incidence of hypertension is age dependent. However, an effective program to prevent hypertension and to improve biomedical factors and quality of life has not been adequately examined or evaluated in Chinese older adults. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of a Tai Chi program to improve health status in participants with hypertension and its related risk factors such as dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and quality of life in older adults in China. A randomized study design was used. At the conclusion of the intervention, 266 patients remained in the study. Blood pressure and biomedical factors were measured according to the World Diabetes Association standard 2002. A standardized quality-of-life measure was used to measure health-related quality of life. It was found that a Tai Chi program to improve hypertension in older adults is effective in reducing blood pressure and body mass index, maintaining normal renal function, and improving physical health of health-related quality of life. It did not improve existing metabolic syndrome levels, lipid level (dyslipidemia) or fasting glucose level (hyperglycemia), to prevent further deterioration of the biomedical risk factors. In conclusion, Tai Chi is effective in managing a number of risk factors associated with hypertension in Chinese older adults. Future research should examine a combination of Tai Chi and nutritional intervention to further reduce the level of biomedical risks.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

FINDINGS

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

INTERPRETATION

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

FUNDING

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Development of population‐based resilience measures in the primary school setting

Purpose

The purpose of the population‐based study in the paper is to report on progress in formulating instruments to measure children's resilience and associated protective factors in family, primary school and community contexts.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper a total of 2,794 students, 1,558 parents/caregivers, and 465 staff were surveyed in October 2003. A cross‐sectional research method was used for the data collection. Three surveys (student survey, parent/caregiver survey, and staff survey) were developed and modified to measure student resilience and associated protective factors. Exploratory factor analysis with Oblimin rotation and confirmatory factor analysis were used to analyse the reliability and validity of the scales of the three surveys.

Findings

The surveys in this paper find good construct validity and internal consistency for the social support scale of parent/caregiver survey, which had been modified from previous studies. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated a goodness of fit for the following scales: student resilience scale of the student survey; the school organisation and climate scale and family functioning scale of the parent/caregiver survey; and the health‐promoting school scale and social capital scale of the staff survey.

Practical implications

The paper specifies aspects of the resilience concept within a holistic or socio‐ecological setting. Measures of validity and reliability indicate that these instruments have the sensitivity to elucidate the complexity of both the resilience concept and the intricacy of working within the multi‐layered world of the school environment.

Originality/value

This paper provides health educators and researchers with reliable and valid resilience measures, which can be used as guidelines in implementing evaluation programmes for the health‐promoting school project and the prevention of mental health problems in children.

Resveratrol inhibits enterovirus 71 replication and pro-inflammatory cytokine secretion in rhabdosarcoma cells through blocking IKKs/NF-κB signaling pathway

Polydatin and resveratrol, as major active components in Polygonum cuspidatum, have anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and antitumor functions. However, the effect and mechanism of polydatin and resveratrol on enterovirus 71 (EV71) have not been reported. In this study, resveratrol revealed strong antiviral activity on EV71, while polydatin had weak effect. Neither polydatin nor resveratrol exhibited influence on viral attachment. Resveratrol could effectively inhibit the synthesis of EV71/VP1 and the phosphorylation of IKKα, IKKβ, IKKγ, IKBα, NF-κB p50 and NF-κB p65, respectively. Meanwhile, the remarkably increased secretion of IL-6 and TNF-α in EV71-infected rhabdosarcoma (RD) cells could be blocked by resveratrol. These results demonstrated that resveratrol inhibited EV71 replication and cytokine secretion in EV71-infected RD cells through blocking IKKs/NF-κB signaling pathway. Thus, resveratrol may have potent antiviral effect on EV71 infection.

Relationship between social support and quality of life in childbearing women during the perinatal period

OBJECTIVE

To explore demographic and social support predictors of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) (mental and physical) for childbearing women in the perinatal period.

DESIGN

Longitudinal.

SAMPLE

Three public hospitals in metropolitan Brisbane, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Four hundred seventy-three (473) women recruited at 36 weeks of pregnancy, and 6 and 12 weeks following childbirth.

METHODS

The Short Form-12 (SF-12) Version 2 Health Survey was used to measure the mental and physical domains of HRQoL. Social support was measured using the Maternal Social Support Scale (MSSS).

RESULTS

Mean scores for the mental and physical domains of HRQoL were lower than population norms. Social support was found to be a significant and consistent predictor of higher HRQoL scores, particularly in the physical domain at 12 weeks following child birth and mental domain during the perinatal period. The relationship between social support and HRQoL was found to be independent of other factors including education, length of relationship with partner, age, parity, and antenatal visit. The only other significant predictor was length of relationship with partner in the mental domain at 36 weeks of pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

Social support is a significant and consistent predictor of a mother's HRQoL during the perinatal period. Nurses and midwives need to assess social support, rather than making assumptions based on demographic factors.