Prognostic value of a novel FPR biomarker in patients with surgical stage II and III gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Inflammation and nutrition are two main causes contributing to progression of gastric cancer (GC), and inflammatory biomarker may be presented as its valuable prognostic factor. Thus, this study was carried out to investigate the prognostic significance of preoperative circulating albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR), fibrinogen/pre-Albumin ratio (FPR), fibrinogen (Fib), albumin (Alb) and pre-Albumin (pAlb) in surgical GC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Three hundred and sixty surgical stage II and III GC patients from June 2011 to December 2013 were enrolled in this retrospective study. X-tile software, Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic role of them. A predictive nomogram was established to predict prognosis of overall survival (OS), and its accuracy was assessed by concordance index (c-index).

RESULTS

Decreased Alb, pAlb, AFR and elevated FPR were significantly associated with shorter OS. FPR was identified as the most effective prognostic factor to predict 3-year's OS by time-dependent ROC analysis. A long survival was observed in patients with low level of FPR and the prognosis of stage III FPR-low GC patients undergoing chemotherapy was significantly superior to the patients without the treatment (P=0.002). However, no difference of survival was examined in stage II subgroups stratified by FPR and high FRP of stage III patients with or not the treatment of chemotherapy. C-index of nomogram containing FPR (c-index=0.756) was high in comparison with the nomogram without FPR (c-index =0.748).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative FPR might be a feasible prognostic biomarker in surgical stage II and III GC and it could precisely distinguish stage III patients who appeared to obviously benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Meanwhile established nomogram based on clinical parameters and FPR could improve its predictive efficacy.

Preoperative circulating FPR and CCF score are promising biomarkers for predicting clinical outcome of stage II-III colorectal cancer patients

INTRODUCTION

Inflammation and nutrition are considered as two important causes leading to the progression and poor survival of colorectal cancer (CRC). The objective of this study is to investigate the prognostic significance of preoperative albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (AFR), fibrinogen-to-pre-albumin ratio (FPR), fibrinogen (Fib), albumin (Alb), and pre-albumin (pre-Alb) in CRC individuals.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this study, 3 years' follow-up was carried out in 702 stage I-III resected CRC patients diagnosed between January 2008 and December 2013. The optimal cutoff points and prognostic values of AFR, FPR, Fib, Alb, pre-Alb, and a novel carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA)-carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA199)-FPR (CCF) score were assessed by X-tile software, Kaplan-Meier curve, and Cox regression model. We established the CRC prognostic nomogram, and its predictive efficacy was determined by Harrell's concordance index (c-index).

RESULTS

Our results showed that high FPR was obviously correlated with poor survival of CRC patients. The prognostic predictive efficacy of CCF score was superior to FPR, CEA, CA199, CEA-CA199 (CCI), and CEA-FPR (CFI) score. Moreover, stage II-III patients harboring high FPR or elevated CCF (score≥1) could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy, rather than those with low FPR or CCF (score=0). Additionally, the c-index (0.728) of the nomogram containing CCF score was significantly higher than that (0.626) without it (p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

These findings illustrated that FPR and CCF score were promising biomarkers to predict the prognosis of CRC and to classify the stage II-III patients who could benefit from the adjuvant chemotherapy.

The predictive and prognostic role of a novel ADS score in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients undergoing esophagectomy

BACKGROUND

Chronic inflammation is deemed to play a significant effect on initiation and progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). In current study, we investigated the prognostic and predictive role of albumin (Alb) to fibrinogen (Fib) ratio (AFR) and a novel AFR-Alb-derived neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) score (ADS) in ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy and compared them with Fib, Alb, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), dNLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 153 clinical confirmed ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy between January 2011 and December 2013 were included in present study. We detected preoperative Alb, Fib and neutrophil, monocyte, lymphocyte and platelet count, and obtained overall survival (OS) by 3 years' follow-up in the cases. X-tile software, Kaplan-Meier curve, Cox regression and predicted nomogram were used to evaluate the predictive and prognostic role of them in ESCC patients.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off values of Fib, Alb, AFR, NLR, dNLR, PLR and LMR were 3.2 mg/dL, 38.2 g/L, 9.3, 2.1, 4.3, 145.9 and 2.3, respectively. High levels of Fib [(adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.148, 95% confidential interval (CI) (1.229-3.753)], dNLR (adjusted HR = 2.338, 95% CI 1.626-5.308) and PLR (adjusted HR = 1.964, 95% CI 1.129-3.415) as well as low AFR (adjusted HR = 2.381, 95% CI 1.152-4.926) and Alb (adjusted HR = 2.398, 95% CI 1.342-4.273) were significantly associated with decreased OS in ESCC patients. The survival predictive areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve of AFR, dNLR and Alb were higher than Fib and PLR, respectively. High ADS score was significantly associated with short 3 years' OS of ESCC patients (adjusted HR = 2.94, 95% CI 1.70-5.08). Moreover, OS of ESCC patients receiving adjuvant radio-chemotherapy was longer than those without the treatment in high ADS score subgroup (p = 0.001), however, no significant survival difference was observed in the patients with or without treatment radio-chemotherapy (p = 0.297). Additionally, a significant difference was observed in c-index values of the nomograms including or without ADS (0.720 vs. 0.670, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative ADS was a prospective biomarker to predict clinical efficacy of adjuvant radio-chemotherapy and clinical prognosis of ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy, and the score could apparently improve predicted efficacy of the nomogram.

Chemotherapy plus bevacizumab as an optimal first-line therapeutic treatment for patients with right-sided metastatic colon cancer: a meta-analysis of first-line clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Monoclonal antibodies of anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) have been recommended as first-line therapy for patients with left-sided metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) with wild-type RAS. The effect of tumour laterality on antivascular endothelial growth factor antibody and how to optimise targeted therapies for the right-sided cases remain controversial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A comprehensive meta-analysis enrolling 16 first-line clinical trials was performed to evaluate the efficacy of chemotherapy alone and chemotherapy plus targeted therapies for patients with mCRC with right primary tumour site, and we validated the results in metastatic setting (14 trials containing 4306 patients with unresectable mCRC).

RESULTS

Here, we found that progression-free survival (PFS) (combined HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.44) and overall survival (OS) (combined HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.62) of the right-sided patients were significantly inferior to the left-sided individuals receiving chemotherapy alone in overall population, regardless of race. Similar results were also observed in metastatic setting. OS of patients with left-sided mCRC receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab was superior to the right-sided individuals (combined median survival ratio (MSR)=1.23, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.39 for overall population; combined MSR=1.23, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.45 for metastatic setting), especially for wild-type RAS and mixed population. Moreover, the right-sided patients benefited more from chemotherapy plus bevacizumab comparing with chemotherapy alone in both overall population and metastatic setting. Importantly, the RAS-wild right-sided patients achieved longer PFS (combined HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.88) and OS (combined HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.98) from chemotherapy plus bevacizumab comparing with chemotherapy associated with anti-EGFR agents.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with right-sided mCRC show impaired chemosensitivity, and chemotherapy plus bevacizumab can be an optimal first-line therapeutic regimen for the RAS-wild patients with right-sided mCRC.

Elevated FPR confers to radiochemoresistance and predicts clinical efficacy and outcome of metastatic colorectal cancer patients

Association of chronic inflammation, primary tumor sidedness, adjuvant therapy and survival of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) remains unclear. Circulating inflammatory cell, fibrinogen (Fib), albumin (Alb), pre-albumin (pAlb), Alb/Fib (AFR) and Fib/pAlb (FPR) were detected, and clinical outcome was obtained to determine the predictive, prognostic and monitoring roles of them in discovery and validation cohort. We found that elevated FPR, low AFR and poor survival was observed in right-sided mCRC comparing to the left-sided disease, elevated FPR harbored the highest areas under curve to independently predict poor progression-free survival and overall survival in overall and left-sided mCRC case in two cohorts. No survival difference was examined between the two-sided patients in subgroups stratified by FPR. Radiochemoresistance was observed in high FPR case. However, the patient could benefit from bevacizumab plus radiochemotherapy. Low FPR patient showed the best survival with treatment of palliative resection plus radiochemotherapy. Moreover, circulating FPR was significantly increased ahead imaging confirmed progression and it reached up to the highest value within three months before death. Additionally, c-indexes of the prognostic nomograms including FPR were significantly higher than those without it. These findings indicated that FPR was an effective and independent factor to predict progression, prognosis and to precisely identify the patient to receive optimal therapeutic regimen.

Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in Early Gastric Cancer

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish the best early gastric cancer lymph node metastasis (LNM) prediction model through machine learning (ML) to better guide clinical diagnosis and treatment decisions.

METHODS

We screened gastric cancer patients with T1a and T1b stages from 2010 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and collected the clinicopathological data of patients with early gastric cancer who were treated with surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 2014 to December 2016. At the same time, we applied 7 ML algorithms-the generalized linear model (GLM), RPART, random forest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector machine (SVM), regularized dual averaging (RDA), and the neural network (NNET)-and combined them with patient pathological information to develop the best prediction model for early gastric cancer lymph node metastasis. Among the SEER set, 80% were randomly selected to train the models, while the remaining 20% were used for testing. The data from the Second Affiliated Hospital were considered as the external verification set. Finally, we used the AUROC, F1-score value, sensitivity, and specificity to evaluate the performance of the model.

RESULTS

The tumour size, tumour grade, and depth of tumour invasion were independent risk factors for early gastric cancer LNM. Comprehensive comparison of the prediction model performance of the training set and test set showed that the RDA model had the best prediction performance (F1-score = 0.773; AUROC = 0.742). The AUROC of the external validation set was 0.73.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumour size, tumour grade, and depth of tumour invasion were independent risk factors for early gastric cancer LNM. ML predicted LNM risk more accurately, and the RDA model had the best predictive performance and could better guide clinical diagnosis and treatment decisions.

Primary Tumor Sidedness Predicts Bevacizumab Benefit in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients

The emerging debate between primary tumor location and clinical outcome of bevacizumab treated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) continues. The aim of the present study is to investigate the association between the primary tumor location and clinical outcome of 115 mCRC patients receiving bevacizumab based treatment. A meta-analysis including 21 studies was carried out to confirm the conclusion. In our prospective study, we found that right-sided mCRC commonly occurred in older cases (p = 0.03) with multiple-site metastasis (p = 0.03). Progression-free survival (PFS) of the left-sided patients undergoing bevacizumab plus a FOLFIRI regimen was superior to the right-sided cases (p = 0.03, crude HR = 0.31, 95%CI = 0.11-0.87; adjusted HR = 0.21, 95%CI = 0.06-0.66). The meta-analysis confirmed that efficacy of bevacizumab-based treatment in left-sided mCRC patients was better than the right-sided cases in the overall population (P h = 0.24, combined OR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.07-1.72), RAS/BRAF wild-type (P h = 0.19, combined OR = 1.66, 95%CI = 1.17-2.34), clinical trial (P h = 0.23, combined OR = 1.42, 95%CI = 1.07-1.88), Caucasian population (P h = 0.18, combined OR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.02-1.85) and first-line (P h = 0.19, combined OR = 1.48, 95%CI = 1.13-1.96) subgroups. Improved survival of bevacizumab plus chemotherapy treated left-sided mCRC patients was observed in the overall population [P h < 0.01, combined MSR = 1.09, 95%CI = 1.00-1.18 for PFS; P h < 0.01, combined MSR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.13-1.36 for overall survival (OS)], especially in the RAS/BRAF wild-type (P h = 0.09, combined MSR = 1.10, 95%CI = 1.03-1.19 for PFS; P h = 0.02, combined MSR = 1.34, 95%CI = 1.21-1.49 for OS). These findings indicate that primary tumor sidedness can predict clinical outcome of bevacizumab-treated RAS/BRAF wild-type mCRC patients and the left-sided patients may benefit more from bevacizumab plus FOLFIRI.

Robust Predictive Performance of MLPAS and CCMLP for Clinical Outcome and Risk Stratification in Patients with Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

There is no recognized biomarker is recommended to monitor or predict the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with negative detection of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) or carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and to classify high recurrence-risk cases.

METHODS

Discovery and two-stage validation cohorts, which included 2111 radically resected patients with stage II-III CRC, were enrolled in this study. We detected preoperative peripheral monocyte, platelet, albumin (Alb), pre-albumin (pAlb), CEA, and CA19-9 and investigated the prognostic and risk-stratified roles of twelve new inflammatory biomarkers in the three cohorts.

RESULTS

In our study, monocyte-to-pAlb ratio (MPAR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte -to-Alb ratio (MLAR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte-to-pAlb ratio (MLPAR), monocyte- to-pAlb score (MPAS), lymphocyte-to-monocyte-Alb score (MLAS), lymphocyte-to monocyte-pAlb score (MLPAS), and platelet-to-lymphocyte-Alb score (PLAS) were significantly associated with both RFS and OS in three cohorts. MLPAS showed the best performance in predicting RFS and OS, and it was related to right-tumor location and significant cancer burden (≥5cm) in the overall population. Moreover, MLPAS is a robust prognostic biomarker in subgroups stratified by CEA or CA19-9. Patients with scores zero and two of the CEA-CA19-9-MLPAS score (CCMLP) showed the lowest and highest recurrence and death rates, respectively, and significant survival differences were observed between them.

CONCLUSION

MLPAS is an optimal, independent, and robust prognostic biomarker in the stage II-III CRC population, especially with negative CEA or CA19-9. The CCMLP could effectively classify high recurrence-risk patients who require more focus, monitoring, and treatment for the clinic.

Clinical Significance of Fibrinogen and Platelet to Pre-Albumin Ratio in Predicting the Prognosis of Advanced Gastric Cancer

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of Fibrinogen and Platelet to Pre-albumin Ratio(FPAR) in predicting the prognosis of patients with advanced gastric cancer(AGC) and to construct a predictive model.

METHODS

We collected clinical data from 489 postoperative patients with AGC. FPAR was divided into high and low groups according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The value of FPAR in predicting the prognosis of progressive gastric cancer was analysed using univariate and multivariable Cox regression analysis and its relationship with clinicopathological features. Finally, the Overall Survival(OS) and recurrence-free survival(RFS) prediction models were constructed and validated using FPAR.

RESULTS

Univariate and multifactorial cox regression analysis showed that grade (P<0.001), TNM-stage (P<0.001), chemotherapy (P<0.001), and FPAR (OR=3.054,95% CI:2.088-4.467, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for OS; grade (P=0.021), N-stage (P=0.024), TNM-stage (P=0.033), and FPAR (OR=2.215,95% CI:1.634-3.003, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for RFS. Subgroup analysis showed that the FPAR-low group had higher OS and RFS than the FPAR-high group, regardless of the patient's TNM stage (p<0.05). However, OS was instead higher in the the stage III-FPAR-low group than in the the stage II-FPAR-high group (p<0.05), while RFS was not significantly different. Predictive models incorporating FPAR had better predictive performance than those without FPAR, showing wide range of net benefit and AUC. After correction, the 2-year AUC, 3-year AUC and C-index of the OS model were 0.737, 0.756, and 0.746; the 2-year AUC, 3-year AUC, and C-index of the RFS model were 0.738, 0.758, and 0.711.

CONCLUSION

FPAR levels were associated with prognosis in patients with AGC and could independently predict RFS and OS.