Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of psychological morbidities among general population, healthcare workers and COVID-19 patients amidst the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This review was done to synthesize the existing evidence on the prevalence of various psychological morbidities among general public, healthcare workers and COVID-19 patients amidst this pandemic situation. Systematic searches were conducted in various databases and search engines such as Medline, Chinese national knowledge infrastructure, Cochrane library, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar from inception until 22 April 2020. Newcastle Ottawa scale was used to assess the quality of included studies. We carried out a meta-analysis with random-effects model and reported pooled prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).A total of 50 studies were included in the review. Only seven studies (14%) had low risk of bias. Pooled prevalence rate of psychological morbidities includes poor sleep quality (40%), stress (34%), psychological distress (34%), insomnia (30%), post-traumatic stress symptoms (27%), anxiety (26%), depression (26%). Pooled prevalence rate of psychological morbidities with respect to impact of event due to COVID-19 pandemic was 44% (95%CI-42% to 47%). The burden of these psychological morbidities was highest among the COVID-19 patients followed by healthcare workers and general population.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diagnostic accuracy of various forms of geriatric depression scale for screening of depression among older adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Depression is under-reported and under-identified by the healthcare professionals. Geriatric depression scale (GDS) is one of the most commonly used instruments for screening the older adults for depression. The current review was done to determine the diagnostic accuracy of various forms of GDS for screening of depression among older adults.

METHODS

We conducted systematic search in various databases like Medline, Cochrane library, Sciencedirect and Google Scholar from inception till May 2019. Quality of trials was assessed by Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. We performed bivariate meta-analysis to obtain the pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive, negative likelihood ratio and diagnostic odds ratio for each of the GDS forms.

RESULTS

Totally 53 studies with 17,018 participants were included in the review. We found the pooled sensitivity and specificity of GDS 30 to be 82 % and 76 % with near higher diagnostic accuracy (AUC = 0.85). GDS 15 had pooled sensitivity and specificity of 86 % and 79 % with higher diagnostic accuracy (AUC = 0.90). GDS 10 had pooled sensitivity and specificity of 87 % and 75 % with AUC = 0.83. Our study found GDS 4 to have sensitivity of 74 % with specificity of 71 %. All the four forms of GDS belonged to right lower quadrant of LR scatter-gram indicating neither confirmation nor exclusion.

CONCLUSION

Current study found that all the forms of GDS are highly useful for detecting depression among elderly with higher sensitivity and specificity. The diagnostic performance was much better for shorter forms of GDS such as GDS 15 and GDS 10 when compared to GDS 30.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among adult population in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This review was done to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) among adult general population in India. We also wanted to find the gender, setting, and region-wide distribution of MS in India.

METHODS

We conducted systematic searches in various databases including Medline, ScienceDirect, Cochrane library and Google Scholar from inception until August 2019. We included studies conducted in India reporting the prevalence of MS among adults aged 18 years or more. We used the Newcastle Ottawa scale to assess the quality of included studies. We carried out a meta-analysis with random-effects model and reported pooled prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We used the Funnel plot to assess publication biases.

RESULTS

In total, we analysed 113 data from 111 studies with 133,926 participants. Majority of the included studies (76 out of 111) had low risk of bias. We found significant heterogeneity among the included studies (p<0.001). We also found a symmetrical funnel plot indicating an absence of publication bias. The prevalence of MS among adult population in India was 30% (95%CI: 28%-33%). There was a steady increase in the burden across the age groups from 13% (18-29 years group) to 50% (50-59 years). We also found that people living in urban areas (32%; 95%CI: 29%-36%) had higher prevalence when compared to tribal (28%; 95%CI: 21%-36%) or rural adults (22%; 95%CI: 20%-25%). Gender distribution of MS showed that the females had higher prevalence (35%; 95%CI: 31%-38%) when compared to males 26% (95%CI: 22%-29%).

CONCLUSION

Almost one in three adults in India suffer from MS. Females, people living in urban areas and in northeast region had higher prevalence of MS. Development and implementation of policies and protocols for the screening of MS would enable us in early diagnosis and treatment with special focus towards the vulnerable and high-risk groups.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

COVID-19 Severity and Mortality Among Chronic Liver Disease Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Pre-existing comorbid conditions in COVID-19 patients are risk factors for developing severe disease and death. We aimed to determine the association of chronic liver disease (CLD), a comorbid condition, with severity of disease and death among COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

We searched for studies reporting COVID-19 outcomes among CLD and non-CLD patients in databases including Medline, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Library from inception of the pandemic until February 2022. Risk of bias assessment was conducted by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for assessing the quality of nonrandomized studies in meta-analyses. We conducted a meta-analysis with a random-effects model and reported pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

We included 40 studies with 908,032 participants. Most studies were conducted in China and the US. COVID-19 patients with CLD had significantly higher odds of having a severe form of COVID-19 (pooled OR = 2.44; 95% CI, 1.89-3.16) and death (pooled OR = 2.35; 95% CI, 1.85-3.00) when compared with COVID-19 patients without CLD.

CONCLUSION

The presence of CLD is significantly related to adverse clinical outcomes among COVID-19 patients in terms of severity and mortality. Clinicians should develop a comprehensive intervention plan to manage these high-risk patients and reduce COVID-19-related deaths.

Prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder among survivors of severe COVID-19 infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) develops after a person has experienced a traumatic event which can be highly accounted for amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of PTSD among the severe cases of COVID-19.

METHODS

We included the observational studies done to estimate the burden of PTSD among severe COVID-19 patients. Data was extracted manually using structured data extraction form and analyzed in STATA version 14.2. A random-effects model was applied, and the final pooled data was reported as proportion with a 95% confidence interval. Multivariable meta-regression analysis was carried out, and a forest plot was utilized to represent the study-specific and pooled estimates for overall and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

We included 13 articles with 1,093 participants in our analysis. The pooled prevalence was estimated to be 16% (95%CI: 9% to 23%). We found a substantial heterogeneity between the studies that reported the outcome (I2=87.9%, p<0.001). In subgroup analysis, the difference in prevalence estimate between the regions was statistically significant.

LIMITATIONS

We found significant between-study variability for the outcome. In addition, our review was found to have substantial publication bias. We also found that the lower quality of the majority of the studies being included in our review.

INTERPRETATION

Our study states that the risk of PTSD is higher following severe COVID-19 infection. Understanding this burden will help us in diverting the resources and adapting necessary interventions to control the situation.

Effectiveness of Financial Incentives in Achieving UNAID Fast-Track 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Target of HIV Care Continuum: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Financial incentives influence behavioural changes and the current review was done to assess the effectiveness of this intervention in improving HIV care continuum. We conducted systematic searches in MEDLINE, Cochrane library, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar from inception until July 2019. We carried out a meta-analysis with random-effects model quantifying inconsistency (I2) for heterogeneity and reported pooled Risk Ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 22 studies with 38,119 participants were included. All the six outcomes showed better results in financial incentive arm compared to standard care with statistical significance in three outcomes-HIV testing uptake (pooled RR: 2.42; 95%CI 1.06-5.54; I2 = 100%), antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence (pooled RR: 1.30; 95%CI 1.13-1.50; I2 = 44%), and continuity in care (pooled RR: 1.24; 95%CI 1.09-1.41; I2 = 86%). To summarize, financial incentives can be helpful in improving the uptake of HIV testing, ART adherence and continuity of care while it was better for achieving viral load suppression among studies conducted in high-income countries.

Effectiveness of peer led intervention in improvement of clinical outcomes among diabetes mellitus and hypertension patients-A systematic review and meta-analysis

Peer-led intervention allows the patients to develop knowledge, skills and confidence in managing their own conditions. Hence this review was done to assess the effectiveness of peer-led intervention in improving the clinical outcomes of DM and HTN patients. We conducted systematic search in Medline, CENTRAL, Sciencedirect and Google-Scholar from inception till May 2018 and retrieved 3654 citations. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects model and pooled mean difference (MD) was reported with 95% CI. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's test. 29 trials (26 DM and 3 HTN) with 6363 participants were included. There was positive effect of peer led intervention on DM and HTN with pooled MD of -0.28% [95%CI: -0.45 to -0.11] and -7.52mmHg [95%CI: -14.39 to -0.66]. There was significant heterogeneity and publication bias in both DM and HTN trials. Sensitivity analysis showed only little improvement in the final estimate. Peer support intervention is effective and causes statistically significant reduction in HbA1C and systolic blood pressure among DM and HTN patients.

Association between Indoor Air Pollution and Cognitive Impairment among Adults in Rural Puducherry, South India

BACKGROUND

Recent evidences showed that outdoor air pollution had significant influence on cognitive functioning of adults. However, little is known regarding the association of indoor air pollution with cognitive dysfunction. Hence, the current study was done to assess the association between indoor air pollution and cognitive impairment among adults in rural Puducherry.

METHODOLOGY

A community-based cross-sectional study was done among 295 adults residing in rural field practice area of tertiary care institute in Puducherry during February and March 2018. Information regarding sociodemographic profile and household was collected using pretested semi-structured questionnaire. Mini-Mental State Examination was done to assess cognitive function. We calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) to identify the factors associated with cognitive impairment.

RESULTS

Among 295 participants, 173 (58.6) were in 30-59 years; 154 (52.2%) were female; and 59 (20.0%) were exposed to indoor air pollution. Prevalence of cognitive impairment in the general population was 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.7-16.1). Prevalence of cognitive impairment among those who were exposed to indoor air pollution was 27.1% (95% CI: 17.4-39.6). Individuals exposed to indoor air pollution (aPR = 2.18, P = 0.003) were found to have two times more chance of having cognitive impairment.

CONCLUSION

About one-fourth of the participants were exposed to indoor air pollution, out of which more than one-fourth was found to have cognitive impairment which is twice that of the general population. Hence, prevention of exposure to indoor air pollution needs to be done through increased availability to cleaner fuels for household usage.

Effectiveness of Workplace Intervention for Reducing Alcohol Consumption: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

AIMS

To review the effectiveness of workplace interventions in reducing alcohol consumption among employees.

METHODS

Systematic search of science databases from inception till May 2018 for trials where an intervention was tested against a control and data presented as amount of alcohol consumed per week. Quality of trials was assessed by Cochrane risk of bias tool. Meta-analysis was performed with random-effects model and pooled mean difference (MD) was reported with 95% confidence interval. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's test.

RESULTS

Seven trials with 1291 participants could be included. No outcome assessments were blinded. There was positive effect of workplace intervention on reduction of alcohol consumption with pooled MD of -2.25 [95% CI: -4.20 to -0.30]. The effect was only seen where subjects had a baseline alcohol consumption of over 15 standard drinks per week. There was no heterogeneity across the trials (I2=0%). Funnel plot was symmetrical shaped and Egger's test confirmed that there was no publication bias. Two studies found no advantages to intervention on differences on the AUDIT test.

CONCLUSION

There is weak evidence for workplace interventions (varying modes) as a way of facilitating reduction in the consumption of alcohol among employees but only among the heavier consumers.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with latent tuberculosis infection among household contacts of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in South India

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the prevalence and find the risk factors associated with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among the household contacts (HHC) of pulmonary TB patients.

METHODS

This cohort study was conducted from 2014 to 2019. Pretested standardised questionnaires and tools were used for data collection. The prevalence of LTBI among HHCs of TB patients was summarised as proportion with 95% confidence interval (CI). Mixed-effects generalised linear modelling function (meglm) in STATA with family Poisson and log link was performed to find the factors associated with LTBI.

RESULTS

In total, 1523 HHC of pulmonary TB patients were included in the study. Almost all HHC shared their residence with the index case (IC) for more than a year; 25% shared the same bed with the IC. The prevalence of LTBI among the HHC of TB patients was 52.6% (95% CI: 50.1-55.1%). In an adjusted model, we found that among HHC belonging to the age group of 19-64 years (aIRR = 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1-1.3; p-value: 0.02), to the age group >65 years (aIRR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.9, p-value: 0.02) and sharing the same bed with the IC (aIRR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.3, p value: 0.04) were independent determinants of LTBI among the HHC.

CONCLUSION

One in two household contacts of TB patients have latent tuberculosis infection. This underscores the need of targeted contact screening strategies, effective contact tracing and testing using standardised methods in high TB burden settings.

Patient and provider's perspective on barriers and facilitators for medication adherence among adult patients with cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus in India: a qualitative evidence synthesis

OBJECTIVE

To explore the various stakeholders' perspectives on barriers and facilitators for medication adherence among patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and diabetes mellitus (DM)in India.

DESIGN

Systematic review of qualitative studies.

DATA SOURCES

A comprehensive systematic search was conducted in Medline, Cochrane Library, Science Direct and Google Scholar from January 2010 to July 2020. We included all qualitative peer-reviewed studies, reporting barriers and facilitators of medication adherence, from India, for our current review.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data extraction was performed by two independent authors who also assessed the quality of included studies using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme criteria. This qualitative evidence synthesis adhered to the enhancing transparency in reporting the synthesis of qualitative research checklist RESULTS: In total, 18 studies were included. Major barriers reported were lack of understanding about the disease, complications related to non-adherence, followed by forgetfulness, lack of family support and risk communication. Health system-related barriers such as accessibility, affordability and acceptability were also reported by majority of the studies. Creation of peer support groups, digital reminder systems, integration of native Indian systems of India, physiotherapy and geriatric clinics at the primary healthcare level and innovations in patient care were suggested to counter these barriers in medication adherence.

CONCLUSION

Such patient-specific targeted interventions need to be developed to achieve better control among patients with CVD and DM.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42020199529.

Comparison of profile and treatment outcomes between elderly and non-elderly tuberculosis patients in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, South India

The rising geriatric population and the increased susceptibility of this age group to tuberculosis (TB), the deadliest single infectious agent, is bothersome for India. This study tried to explore the demographic and treatment outcome differences between the elderly (aged 60 years and above) and non-elderly TB (<60 years) patients from South India. This study was part of a large ongoing cohort study under the RePORT India consortium. Newly diagnosed TB patients recruited into the cohort between 2014 and 2018 were included in this study. Pretested and standardized questionnaire and tools were used to collect data and were stored securely for the entire cohort. Required demographic, anthropometric and treatment related variables were extracted from this database and analyzed using Stata version 14.0. Prevalence of elderly TB was summarized as percentage with 95% confidence interval (CI). Generalized linear modelling was attempted to find the factors associated with elderly TB. A total of 1,259 eligible TB patients were included into this present study. Mean (SD) of the participants in the elderly and non-elderly group was 65.8 (6.2) and 40.2 (12.0) respectively. Prevalence of elderly TB was 15.6% (95%CI: 13.6%-17.6%) with nearly 71% belonging to 60-69 age category. Male sex, OBC caste, poor education, unemployment, marriage, alcohol consumption and unable to work as per Karnofsky score were found to be significantly associated with an increased prevalence of elderly TB. Unfavorable outcomes (12% vs 6.5%, p value: 0.018), including death (9.3% vs 3.4%, p value: 0.001) were significantly higher among the elderly group when compared to their non-elderly counterparts. The current TB programme should have strategies to maintain follow up with due attention to adverse effects, social support and outcomes. Additional research should focus on predictors for unfavorable outcomes among the elderly TB group and explore ways to handle the same. Rendering adequate social support from the health system side and family side would be a good start.

Impact and cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in India

BACKGROUND

World Health Organization has recommended the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in the childhood immunisation programme of all the countries in the world. In lieu of its introduction in India, there is a need to generate evidence on cost-effectiveness of this vaccine. The current study looks into the impact and cost-effectiveness of PCV vaccine in India.

METHODS

We evaluated the cost effectiveness of implementation of PCV 13 vaccination program at national level by comparing with no vaccination program for a period of 10 birth cohorts from 2018 to 2027. UNIVAC, a deterministic static cohort model is developed by giving the conservative estimates of vaccine program related to mortality, disease event rates, vaccine efficacy and coverage projections, system and health care costs for the first five years of life. Cost effectiveness is reported as Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER). Further scenario and sensitivity analysis were done. Probability of PCV intervention to be cost effective at a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold equal to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is calculated using the government perspective.

RESULTS

We found that the introduction of PCV vaccination program can cost an additional $467 (INR 31,666) for averting per DALY which is less than one time GDP per capita of India. Even with the most unfavourable scenario for PCV vaccine, cost per DALY averted is found to be $2323 (INR 1,57,520) which is still a cost effective intervention in India. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found the ICER for PCV to be $649 (INR 44,008) with 95% CI: $374-$1161.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that the PCV program is a highly cost effective intervention and justifies the introduction of PCV into routine immunisation schedule in some of the states and recommends introducing it throughout the country to reduce morbidity and mortality among the under-five children.

A longitudinal study on high risk pregnancy and its outcome among antenatal women attending rural primary health centre in Puducherry, South India

BACKGROUND

Almost 15% of all pregnant women can develop potentially life-threatening complications. As a result, identification of high-risk pregnancy at earliest stage will be useful in directing appropriate intervention. Hence, the current study was done to determine the prevalence and outcome of high-risk pregnancy among antenatal women in rural Puducherry.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A record-based longitudinal study was done during March 2018 among 569 antenatal women who have attended rural health center of tertiary care institute. High-risk pregnancy was classified based on the guidelines from Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Matritva Abhiyan and outcome assessment based on the obstetric and neonatal outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 569 antenatal case record reviewed, 315 (55.3%) were in the age group of 20-25 years and majority (463, 81.4%) belonged to below poverty line families; 410 (74.3%) registered their current pregnancy within the first trimester. The prevalence of high-risk pregnancy among study participants was 18.3% (95% confidence interval: 15.3%-21.7%). Majority (81.9%) had term delivery. Regarding obstetric and neonatal outcomes, majority had spontaneous vaginal delivery (73.9%); about 10.4% gave birth to low-birth weight baby, and only 1.7% had stillbirth. Parity, socioeconomic status, and unfavorable outcomes such as low-birth weight, preterm, and postterm delivery were associated with high-risk pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

The current study found that almost one-fifth of the pregnant women in rural area have high-risk pregnancy. Unfavorable obstetric and neonatal outcomes were common among high-risk cases. Hence, early detection of high-risk pregnancy needs to be done at primary health-care level to improve the maternal, obstetric, and neonatal outcomes.

Association between indoor air pollution and cognitive function among nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older adults in India-A multilevel modelling approach

We have used a nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older adults in India to study the association between indoor air pollution and cognitive function. Longitudinal aging study in India (LASI) Wave-I data was utilized for this study. A two-level mixed-effects linear regression model was used to study the association between indoor air pollution and cognitive function and interpreted as adjusted beta coefficient (ꞵ) with 95% confidence interval (CI). In total, 56,179 participants aged ≥45 years were included in the analysis. The proportion of participants living in households with indoor air pollution were 30.6% (95%CI: 30.0%-31.3%). After adjusting for all the potential confounders (age, gender, education, region, religion, separate kitchen, socioeconomic status, marital status, residence, smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, self-rated health, and sleep problems), participants living in households with indoor air pollution had significant decline in the cognitive function when compared to those living in households without indoor air pollution (ꞵ = -0.57; 95%CI: -0.69 to -0.45). Since the LASI survey is being conducted as a biennial panel survey, assessing the impact of indoor air pollution on cognitive decline using the follow-up data can provide further insights into the pathogenesis of condition.

Prevalence and factors associated with diabetes mellitus among tuberculosis patients in South India-a cross-sectional analytical study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence and determinants of diabetes mellitus (DM) among tuberculosis (TB) patients and to assess the additional yield and number needed to screen (NNS) to obtain a newly diagnosed DM among TB patients.

DESIGN

We undertook a cross-sectional analysis of the cohort data under Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis-India consortium. Newly diagnosed TB patients recruited into the cohort between 2014 and 2018 were included. Pretested standardised questionnaires and tools were used for data collection. Prevalence of DM among TB patients was summarised as proportion with 95% CI. Type II DM was diagnosed if random blood sugar level was >200 mg/dL or if the participant had a documented history of DM. NNS by blood glucose testing to diagnose one new DM case among TB patients was also calculated.

SETTING

Three districts of South India: Puducherry, Cuddalore and Villupuram SUBJECTS: Newly diagnosed sputum smear positive pulmonary TB patients aged ≥16 years RESULTS: In total, 1188 TB patients were included. Prevalence of DM among TB patients was 39% (95% CI: 36.2% to 41.8%). In unadjusted analysis, elderly TB, marital status, caste, gender, higher education level, household income and obesity had a significant association with DM. However, in adjusted analysis, only marital status (currently married aPR; 3.77 (95 CI: 2.20 to 6.49), widowed/separated/divorced aPR; 3.66 (95 CI: 1.96 to 6.83)) and body mass index category (normal weight aPR; 3.26 (95 CI: 2.55 to 4.16), overweight aPR; 3.86 (95 CI: 2.69 to 5.52), obesity aPR; 4.08 (95 CI: 2.81 to 5.94)) were found to be significant determinants. The number of TB patients needed to be screened to find a new DM case was 12.

CONCLUSION

We found that one in three TB patients had coexisting DM. The number of TB patients needed to be screened to obtain a newly diagnosed DM patients was also determined. The study supports and highlights the need of RNTCP's effort in bidirectional screening of TB and DM.