Feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of a self-directed online psychosocial intervention for women with metastatic breast cancer: Finding My Way-Advanced

PURPOSE

Few digital interventions target patients with advanced cancer. Hence, we feasibility-tested Finding My Way-Advanced (FMW-A), a self-guided program for women with metastatic breast cancer.

METHODS

A single-site randomised controlled pilot trial was conducted. Participants were recruited through clinicians, professional networks, and social media and randomised to intervention or usual-care control. Participants were randomly allocated to either the intervention (FMW-A; a 6-week, 6-module CBT-based online self-directed psychosocial program for women with MBC + usual care resources) or control (usual care resources: BCNA's Hope and Hurdles kit). Feasibility outcomes included rates of recruitment, uptake, engagement, and attrition. Distress, QOL, and unmet needs were evaluated for signals of efficacy, and qualitative feedback was collected to assess acceptability.

RESULTS

Due to COVID-19 and funding constraints, the target recruitment of 40 was not reached (n = 60 approached; n = 55 eligible; n = 35 consented). Uptake was high (n = 35/55; 63.6%), engagement modest (median 3/6 modules per user), and attrition acceptable (66% completed post-treatment). Efficacy signals were mixed: compared to controls, FMW-A participants experienced small improvements in fear of progression (d = 0.21) and global QOL (d = 0.22) and demonstrated a trend towards improvements in cancer-specific distress (d = 0.13) and role functioning (d = 0.18). However, FMW-A participants experienced small-to-moderate deteriorations in general distress (d = 0.23), mental QOL (d = 0.51), and social functioning (d = 0.27), whereas controls improved. Qualitatively, participants (n = 4) were satisfied with the program, perceived it as appropriate, but noted some sections could evoke transient distress.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated feasibility (high uptake and acceptable retention) and generated realistic recruitment estimates. While FMW-A appears promising for targeting cancer-specific distress and fear of progression, the mixed findings in quality of life and general distress warrant further revisions and testing.

Measurement properties of utility-based health-related quality of life measures in cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention programs: a systematic review

PURPOSE

To identify utility-based patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for assessing health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention programs (CR) and appraise existing evidence on their measurement properties. Secondly, to link their items to the International Classification of Functioning Disability and Health (ICF) and the International Consortium of Health Outcome Measures (ICHOM) domains for cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

Eight databases were searched. The review followed the COSMIN and JBI guidelines for measurement properties systematic reviews and PRISMA 2020 reporting guidelines. Non-experimental and observational empirical studies of patients ≥ 18 years of age with CVD undergoing CR and assessed quality of life (QoL) or HRQoL using utility-based PROMs or one accompanied by health state utilities were included.

RESULTS

Nine PROMs were identified with evidence on measurement properties for three measures: the German translations of SF-12, EQ-5D-5L, and MacNew heart disease HRQoL questionnaire. There was moderate quality evidence for responsiveness and hypothesis testing of the SF-12 and EQ-5D-5L, and high-quality evidence for responsiveness and hypothesis testing for the MacNew. All items of SF-12 and EQ-5D were linked to ICF categories, but four items of the MacNew were not classified or defined. All the PROM domains were mapped onto similar constructs from the ICHOM global sets.

CONCLUSION

Three utility-based PROMs validated in CR were identified: the German versions of the EQ-5D and SF-12 and the MacNew questionnaire. These PROMs are linked to a breadth of ICF categories and all ICHOM global sets. Additional validation studies of PROMs in CR are required.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Sleep Apnea Management: A Critical Evaluation of the Impact of Therapy on Health Care Costs

TOPIC IMPORTANCE

OSA is a widespread condition that significantly affects both health and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). If left untreated, OSA can lead to accidents, decreased productivity, and medical complications, resulting in significant economic burdens including the direct costs of managing the disorder. Given the constraints on health care resources, understanding the cost-effectiveness of OSA management is crucial. A key factor in cost-effectiveness is whether OSA therapies reduce medical costs associated with OSA-related complications.

REVIEW FINDINGS

Treatments for OSA have been shown to enhance HRQoL, particularly for symptomatic patients with moderate or severe disease. Economic studies also have demonstrated that these treatments are highly cost-effective. However, although substantial empirical evidence shows that untreated OSA is associated with increased medical costs, uncertainty remains about the impact of OSA treatment on these costs. Randomized controlled trials of positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy have failed to demonstrate cost reductions, but the studies have had important limitations. Observational studies suggest that PAP therapy may temper increases in costs, but only among patients who are highly adherent to treatment. However, the healthy adherer effect is an important potential source of bias in these studies.

SUMMARY

OSA management is cost-effective, although uncertainties persist regarding the therapy's impact on medical costs. Future studies should focus on reducing bias, particularly the healthy adherer effect, and addressing other confounding factors to clarify potential medical cost savings. Promising avenues to further understanding include using quasiexperimental designs, incorporating more sophisticated characterization of OSA severity and symptoms, and leveraging newer technologies (eg, big data, wearables, and artificial intelligence).

Exploration of barriers and enablers to diabetes care for Aboriginal people on rural Ngarrindjeri Country

ISSUES ADDRESSED

Addressing the disproportionate burden of type 2 diabetes prevalence in Aboriginal communities is critical. Current literature on diabetes care for Aboriginal people is primarily focused on remote demographics and overwhelmingly dominated by Western biomedical models and deficit paradigms. This qualitative research project adopted a strengths-based approach to explore the barriers and enablers to diabetes care for Aboriginal people on Ngarrindjeri Country in rural South Australia.

METHODS

Knowledge Interface methodology guided the research as Aboriginal and Western research methods were drawn upon. Data collection occurred using three yarning sessions held on Ngarrindjeri Country. Yarns were transcribed and deidentified before a qualitative thematic analysis was conducted, guided by Dadirri and a constructivist approach to grounded theory.

RESULTS

A total of 15 participants attended the yarns. Major barriers identified by participants were underscored by the ongoing impacts of colonisation. This was combated by a current of survival as participants identified enablers to diabetes care, namely a history of healthy community, working at the knowledge interface, motivators for action, and an abundance of community skills and leadership.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the raft of barriers detailed by participants throughout the diabetes care journey, Aboriginal people on Ngarrindjeri Country were found to be uniquely positioned to address diabetes prevalence and management. SO WHAT?: Health promotion efforts with Aboriginal people on Ngarrindjeri Country must acknowledge the sustained impacts of colonisation, while building on the abundance of community enablers, skills and strengths. Opportunities present to do so by adopting holistic, community-led initiatives that shift away from the dominant biomedical approach to diabetes care.

An empirical comparison of sleep-specific versus generic quality of life instruments among Australians with sleep disorders

PURPOSE

In Australian adults diagnosed with a sleep disorder(s), this cross-sectional study compares the empirical relationships between two generic QoL instruments, the EuroQoL 5-dimension 5-level (EQ-5D-5L) and ICEpop CAPability measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), and three sleep-specific metrics, the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), 10-item Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire (FOSQ-10), and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI).

METHODS

Convergent and divergent validity between item/dimension scores was examined using Kendall's Tau-B correlation, with correlations below 0.30 considered weak, between 0.30 and 0.50 moderate and those above 0.50 strong (indicating that instruments were measuring similar constructs). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted to identify shared underlying constructs.

RESULTS

A total of 1509 participants (aged 18-86 years) were included in the analysis. Convergent validity between dimensions/items of different instruments was weak to moderate. A 5-factor EFA solution, representing 'daytime dysfunction', 'fatigue', 'wellbeing', 'physical health', and 'perceived sleep quality', was simplest with close fit and fewest cross-loadings. Each instrument's dimensions/items primarily loaded onto their own factor, except for the EQ-5D-5L and PSQI. Nearly two-thirds of salient loadings were of excellent magnitude (0.72 to 0.91).

CONCLUSION

Moderate overlap between the constructs assessed by generic and sleep-specific instruments indicates that neither can fully capture the complexity of QoL alone in general disordered sleep populations. Therefore, both are required within economic evaluations. A combination of the EQ-5D-5L and, depending on context, ESS or PSQI offers the broadest measurement of QoL in evaluating sleep health interventions.

An innovative business model using established Medicare items for delivery of cardiac rehabilitation: A value proposition for primary care

BACKGROUND

Approximately 70% of Australians do not attend cardiac rehabilitation (CR). A potential solution is integrating CR into primary care OBJECTIVE: To propose a business model for primary care providers to implement CR using current Medicare items.

DISCUSSION

Using the chronic disease management plan, general practitioners (GPs) complete four clinical assessments at 1-2 weeks, 8-12 weeks, and 6 and 12 months after discharge. The net benefit of applying this model, compared with claiming the most used standard consultation Item 23, in Phase II CR is up to $505 per patient and $543 in Phase III CR. The number of rural GPs providing CR in partnership with the Country Access To Cardiac Health (CATCH) through the GP hybrid model has increased from 28 in 2021 to 32 in 2022. This increase might be attributed to this value proposition. The biggest limitation is access to allied health services in the rural areas.

Pre-COVID life expectancy, mortality, and burden of diseases for adults 70 years and older in Australia: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Background

The Australian population aged 70 and above is increasing and imposing new challenges for policy makers and providers to deliver accessible, appropriate and affordable health care. We examine pre-COVID patterns of health loss between 1990 and 2019 to inform policies and practices.

Methods

Using the standardised methodology framework and analytical strategies from GBD 2019 methodologies, we estimated mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy at age 70 and above (LE-70), and healthy life expectancy (HALE-70) in Australia comparing them globally and with high socio-demographic index (SDI) groups.

Findings

DALY rates have been improving steadily over the past 30 years among Australians aged 70 and above. Decreases in DALY rates were primarily attributed to a fall in YLLs attributable to cardiovascular diseases (60%) and chronic respiratory disorders (30.2%) and transport injuries (56.9%), while the non-fatal burden remained stable from 1990 to 2019. According to the DALY rates, the top five leading causes are ischemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, COPD, stroke, and falls, where falls exhibited the largest increase since 1990.

Interpretation

This study provides an in-depth report on the main causes of mortality and disability in Australia's population aged 70 and above. It sheds light on the shifts in burden over three decades, emphasising the need for the Australian health system to enhance its readiness in addressing the escalating demands of an ageing population. These findings establish pre-COVID baseline estimates for Australia's population aged 70 and above, informing healthcare preparedness.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Knowledge interface co-design of a diabetes and metabolic syndrome initiative with and for Aboriginal people living on Ngarrindjeri country

Objectives

This research program involves two phases to identify enablers and barriers to diabetes care for Aboriginal people on Ngarrindjeri country; and co-design a strength-based metabolic syndrome and Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) remission program with the Ngarrindjeri community.

Study design

A study protocol on qualitative research.

Methods

The study will recruit Aboriginal people living on Ngarrindjeri country above 18 years of age with a diagnosis of metabolic syndrome or T2D. Recruitment for phases one and two will occur through the Aboriginal Health Team at the Riverland Mallee Coorong Local Health Network. The lived experiences of T2D will be explored with 10-15 Aboriginal participants, through an Aboriginal conversational technique called 'yarning' (60-90 min) in phase 1. Elders and senior community representatives (n = 20-30) will participate in four co-design workshops (2-4 h) in phase 2. Qualitative data will be transcribed and thematically analysed (NVivo version 12). The analysis will focus on protective factors for the Cultural Determinants of Health. Ethics approval was obtained from Aboriginal Health Research Ethics Committee in South Australia (04-22-1009), and Flinders University Human Research Ethics Committee (5847).

Results

This work will be used to pilot the co-designed diabetes remission trial. Outcomes will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences, focusing on following best practice guidelines from the Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies and National Health and Medical Research Council. Research translation will occur through digital posters, manuals, and infographics.

Conclusions

The findings will be summarised to all Aboriginal organisations involved in this study, along with peak bodies, stakeholders, Aboriginal Services, and interested participants.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of lived experience Peer Support intervention for mental health service consumers in Primary Care (PS-PC): study protocol for a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The demand for mental health services in Australia is substantial and has grown beyond the capacity of the current workforce. As a result, it is currently difficult for many to access secondary healthcare providers. Within the secondary healthcare sector, however, peer workers who have lived experience of managing mental health conditions have been increasingly employed to intentionally use their journey of recovery in supporting others living with mental health conditions and their communities. Currently, the presence of peer workers in primary care has been limited, despite the potential benefits of providing supports in conjunction with GPs and secondary healthcare providers.

METHODS

This stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to evaluate a lived experience peer support intervention for accessing mental health care in primary care (PS-PC). Four medical practices across Australia will be randomly allocated to switch from control to intervention, until all practices are delivering the PS-PC intervention. The study will enrol 66 patients at each practice (total sample size of 264). Over a period of 3-4 months, 12 h of practical and emotional support provided by lived experience peer workers will be available to participants. Scale-based questionnaires will inform intervention efficacy in terms of mental health outcomes (e.g., self-efficacy) and other health outcomes (e.g., healthcare-related costs) over four time points. Other perspectives will be explored through scales completed by approximately 150 family members or carers (carer burden) and 16 peer workers (self-efficacy) pre- and post-intervention, and 20 medical practice staff members (attitudes toward peer workers) at the end of each study site's involvement in the intervention. Interviews (n = 60) and six focus groups held toward the end of each study site's involvement will further explore the views of participants, family members or carers, peer workers, and practice staff to better understand the efficacy and acceptability of the intervention.

DISCUSSION

This mixed-methods, multi-centre, stepped-wedge controlled study will be the first to evaluate the implementation of peer workers in the primary care mental health care sector.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12623001189617. Registered on 17 November 2023, https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=386715.

Content Comparison of Quality-of-Life Instruments Used in Economic Evaluations of Sleep Disorder Interventions: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Assessment of quality of life (QoL) in people living with sleep disorders using questionnaires is necessary to compare intervention benefits. Knowledge of the content and concepts covered by specific QoL instruments is essential to determine which instruments are best suited for conducting economic evaluations of sleep-related interventions.

OBJECTIVES

This review aims to identify the QoL instruments that have been applied in economic evaluations of sleep disorder interventions and compare their conceptual overlap and content coverage using the framework of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF).

METHODS

A systematic review of full economic evaluations in sleep published in peer-reviewed journals from conception to 30 May, 2023 was conducted. MEDLINE, PsychInfo, ProQuest, Cochrane, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science and Emcare were searched for eligible studies. Studies incorporating either generic or sleep-specific QoL instruments as the primary or secondary measures of effectiveness within a full economic evaluation were included. Quality appraisal against the JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Economic Evaluations and EURONHEED checklists and mapping of QoL items to ICF categories were performed by two reviewers, with a third helping settle any potential differences.

RESULTS

Sixteen instruments were identified as having been used in sleep health economic evaluations. The EQ-5D-3L, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, and Insomnia Severity Index were the most widely used, but the latter two are predominantly diagnostic tools and not specifically designed to guide economic evaluations. Other instruments with broader ICF content coverage have been least used, and these include the Sleep Apnea Quality of Life Index, Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire, 15 Dimensions, Short-Form 6 Dimensions, 12-item Short Form Survey, 36-item Short Form Survey and the GRID Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides an overview of current QoL instruments used in economic evaluations of sleep with respect to their content coverage. A combination of generic and sleep-specific instruments with broader ICF content coverage is recommended for such evaluations.

Two-year follow-up of a clustered randomised controlled trial of a multicomponent general practice intervention for people at risk of poor health outcomes

BACKGROUND

This study was a two-year follow-up evaluation of health service use and the cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent general practice intervention targeted at people at high risk of poor health outcomes.

METHODS

A two-year follow-up study of a clustered randomised controlled trial was conducted in South Australia during 2018-19, recruiting 1044 patients from three cohorts: children; adults (aged 18-64 years with two or more chronic diseases); and older adults (aged ≥ 65 years). Intervention group practices (n = 10) provided a multicomponent general practice intervention for 12 months. The intervention comprised patient enrolment to a preferred general practitioner (GP), access to longer GP appointments and timely general practice follow-up after episodes of hospital care. Health service outcomes included hospital use, specialist services and pharmaceuticals. The economic evaluation was based on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) calculated from EuroQoL 5 dimensions, 5 level utility scores and used an A$50,000 per QALY gained threshold for determining cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Over the two years, there were no statistically significant intervention effects for health service use. In the total sample, the mean total cost per patient was greater for the intervention than control group, but the number of QALYs gained in the intervention group was higher. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was A$18,211 per QALY gained, which is lower than the A$50,000 per QALY gained threshold used in Australia. However, the intervention's cost-effectiveness was shown to differ by cohort. For the adult cohort, the intervention was associated with higher costs and lower QALYs gained (vs the total cohort) and was not cost-effective. For the older adults cohort, the intervention was associated with lower costs (A$540 per patient), due primarily to lower hospital costs, and was more effective than usual care.

CONCLUSIONS

The positive cost-effectiveness results from the 24-month follow-up warrant replication in a study appropriately powered for outcomes such as hospital use, with an intervention period of at least two years, and targeted to older people at high risk of poor health outcomes.

A randomized multicenter trial of a chronic disease management intervention for decompensated cirrhosis. The Australian Liver Failure (ALFIE) trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Improving the care of decompensated cirrhosis is a significant clinical challenge. The primary aim of this trial was to assess the efficacy of a chronic disease management (CDM) model to reduce liver-related emergency admissions (LREA). The secondary aims were to assess model effects on quality-of-care and patient-reported outcomes.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The study design was a 2-year, multicenter, randomized controlled study with 1:1 allocation of a CDM model versus usual care. The study setting involved both tertiary and community care. Participants were randomly allocated following a decompensated cirrhosis admission. The intervention was a multifaceted CDM model coordinated by a liver nurse. A total of 147 participants (intervention=75, control=71) were recruited with a median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of 19. For the primary outcome, there was no difference in the overall LREA rate for the intervention group versus the control group (incident rate ratio 0.89; 95% CI: 0.53-1.50, p=0.666) or in actuarial survival (HR=1.14; 95% CI: 0.66-1.96, p=0.646). However, there was a reduced risk of LREA due to encephalopathy in the intervention versus control group (HR=1.87; 95% CI: 1.18-2.96, p=0.007). Significant improvement in quality-of-care measures was seen for the performance of bone density (p<0.001), vitamin D testing (p<0.001), and HCC surveillance adherence (p=0.050). For assessable participants (44/74 intervention, 32/71 controls) significant improvements in patient-reported outcomes at 3 months were seen in self-management ability and quality of life as assessed by visual analog scale (p=0.044).

CONCLUSIONS

This CDM intervention did not reduce overall LREA events and may not be effective in decompensated cirrhosis for this end point.

Health economics in nursing research: what you need to know to include economic evaluation methodology in your research

Due to limited resources and constant, ever-changing healthcare challenges, health economics is essential to support healthcare decisions while improving health outcomes. Economic evaluation methodology facilitates informed decision-making related to the efficient allocation of resources while positively impacting clinical practice. In this paper, we provide an overview of economic evaluation methods and a real-world example applying one method of economic evaluation (cost-utility analysis) in nursing research.

Excess Bed Days and Hospitalization Costs Associated With 30-Day Complications Following Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The incidence and type of complications following catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation have been extensively examined, but the impact associated with these complications on the length of stay and hospitalization costs is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cohort study included 20 117 adult patients (mean age 62.6±11.4 years, 30.3% women, median length of stay 1 day [interquartile range 1-2 days]) undergoing atrial fibrillation ablation in financial years 2011 to 2017 in Australia with available cost data from the National Hospital Cost Data Collection, which determines government reimbursement of health services provided. The primary outcome was the costs associated with complications occurring up to 30 days postdischarge adjusted for inflation to 2021 Australian dollars. We used generalized linear models to estimate the increase in length of stay and cost associated with complications, adjusting for patient characteristics. Within 30 days of hospital discharge, 1151 (5.72%) patients experienced a complication with bleeding (3.35%) and pericardial effusion (0.75%) being the most common. On average, the occurrence of a complication was associated with an adjusted 3.3 (95% CI, 3.1-3.6) excess bed days of hospital care (totaling 3851 days), and a $7812 (95% CI, $6754-$8870) increase in hospitalization cost (totaling $9.0 million). Most of the total excess cost was attributable to bleeding ($3.8 million, 41.9% of total excess cost) and pericardial effusion ($1.6 million, 18.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Complications following atrial fibrillation ablation were associated with significant increase in length of stay and hospitalization costs, most of which were attributable to bleeding and pericardial effusion. Strategies to improve procedural safety and reduce health care costs should focus on these complications.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Measurement properties of utility-based health-related quality-of-life measures in cardiac rehabilitation: a systematic review protocol

OBJECTIVE

This review will identify and appraise existing evidence on the measurement properties of utility-based health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) measures used in cardiac rehabilitation programs. The review will map the measure domains against the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health and the International Consortium of Health Outcome Measures domains for cardiovascular disease.

INTRODUCTION

Improving HRQoL is an international key indicator for delivering high-quality and person-centered secondary prevention programs. Many instruments and measures assess HRQoL in individuals undergoing cardiac rehabilitation. Utility-based measures are suitable for calculating quality-adjusted life years, a required outcome metric in cost-utility analysis. Cost-utility analysis requires the use of utility-based HRQoL measures. However, there is no consensus on which utility-based measure is best for populations undergoing cardiac rehabilitation.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Eligible studies will include patients aged ≥18 years with cardiovascular disease who are undergoing cardiac rehabilitation. Empirical studies that assess quality of life or HRQoL using a utility-based, health-related, patient-reported outcome measure or a measure accompanied by health state utilities will be eligible. Studies must report at least 1 of the following measurement properties: reliability, validity, responsiveness.

METHODS

This review will follow the JBI methodology for systematic reviews of measurement properties. The following databases will be searched from inception to the present: MEDLINE, Emcare, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science Core Collection, Informit, PsyclNFO, REHABDATA, and the Cochrane Library. Studies will be critically appraised using the The COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) risk of bias checklist. The review will be reported in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022349395.

Assessing the validity and responsiveness of a generic preference quality of life measure in the context of posttraumatic stress disorder

PURPOSE

There is limited research exploring the usefulness of generic preference-based quality of life (GPQoL) measures used to facilitate economic evaluation in the context of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The aim of the current study was to explore the validity and responsiveness of a common GPQoL measure (Assessment of Quality of Life 8 Dimension [AQoL-8D]) in relation to a PTSD condition-specific outcome measure (Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for the DSM-5 [PCL-5]).

METHOD

This aim was investigated in a sample of individuals (N = 147) who received trauma-focused cognitive-behavioural therapies for posttraumatic stress disorder. Convergent validity was investigated using spearman's correlations, and the level of agreement was investigated using Bland-Altman plots. Responsiveness was investigated by exploring the standardised response means (SRM) from pre-post-treatment across the two measures, which allow the comparison of the magnitude of change between the measures over time.

RESULTS

Correlations between the AQoL-8D (dimensions, utility and summary total scores) and the PCL-5 total score ranged from small to large and agreement between the measures was considered moderate to good. While SRMs were large for the AQoL-8D and PCL-5 total scores, the SRM for the PCL-5 was nearly double that of the AQoL-8D.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that the AQoL-8D has good construct validity but present preliminary evidence that economic evaluations using only GPQoL measures may not fully capture the effectiveness of PTSD treatments.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of the EQ-5D-5L, EQ-VAS stand-alone component and Oxford knee score in the Australian knee arthroplasty population utilising minimally important difference, concurrent validity, predictive validity and responsiveness

PURPOSE

To evaluate the Oxford Knee Score (OKS), EQ-5D-5L utility index and EQ-5D visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) for health-related quality of life outcome measurement in patients undergoing elective total knee arthroplasty (TKA) surgery.

METHODS

In this prospective multi-centre study, the OKS and EQ-5D-5L index scores were collected preoperatively, six weeks (6w) and six months (6 m) following TKA. The OKS, EQ-VAS and EQ-5D-5L index were evaluated for minimally important difference (MID), concurrent validity, predictive validity (Spearman's Rho of predicted and observed values from a generalised linear regression model (GLM)), responsiveness (effect size (ES) and standard response mean (SRM)). The MID for the individual patient was determined utilising two approaches; distribution-based and anchor-based.

RESULTS

533 patients were analysed. The EQ-5D-5L utility index showed good concurrent validity with the OKS (r = 0.72 preoperatively, 0.65 at 6w and 0.69 at 6 m). Predictive validity for the EQ-5D-5L index was lower than OKS when regressed. Responsiveness was large for all fields at 6w for the EQ-5D-5L and OKS (EQ-5D-5L ES 0.87, SRM 0.84; OKS ES 1.35, SRM 1.05) and 6 m (EQ-5D-5L index ES 1.31, SRM 0.95; OKS ES 1.69, SRM 1.59). The EQ-VAS returned poorer results, at 6w an ES of 0.37 (small) and SRM of 0.36 (small). At 6 m, the EQ-VAS had an ES of 0.59 (moderate) and SRM of 0.47 (small). It, however, had similar predictive validity to the OKS, and better than the EQ-5D-5L index. MID determined using anchor approach, was shown that for OKS at 6 weeks it was 8.84 ± 9.28 and at 6 months 13.37 ± 9.89. For the EQ-5D-5L index at 6 weeks MID was 0.23 ± 0.39, and at 6 months 0.26 ± 0.36.

CONCLUSIONS

The EQ-5D-5L index score and the OKS demonstrate good concurrent validity. The EQ-5D-5L index demonstrated lower predictive validity at 6w, and 6 m than the OKS, and both PROMs had adequate responsiveness. The EQ-VAS had poorer responsiveness but better predictive validity than the EQ-5D-5L index. This article includes MID estimates for the Australian knee arthroplasty population.

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990-2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input.

FINDINGS

In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6-4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4-499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4-225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9-3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1-309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries.