Biomarkers and patient-related factors associated with clinical outcomes in dupilumab-treated atopic dermatitis

Background

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common chronic eczematous skin disease with severe pruritus. Several new therapeutic agents for AD such as dupilumab, an anti-IL-4Rα antibody, have been developed in recent years. We need to predict which agent is the best choice for each patient, but this remains difficult.

Objective

Our aim was to examine clinical background factors and baseline biomarkers that could predict the achievement of improved clinical outcomes in patients with AD treated with dupilumab.

Methods

A multicenter, prospective observational study was conducted on 110 patients with AD. The Eczema Area and Severity Index was used as an objective assessment, and the Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure and Numerical Rating Scale for Pruritus were used as patient-reported outcomes. In addition, some clinical background factors were evaluated.

Results

The achievement of an absolute Eczema Area and Severity Index of 7 or less was negatively associated with current comorbidity of food allergy and baseline serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels. There were negative associations between achievement of a Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure score of 7 or less and duration of severe AD and between achievement of an itching Numerical Rating Scale for Pruritus score of 1 or less and current comorbidity of allergic conjunctivitis or baseline serum periostin level. Furthermore, signal detection analysis showed that a baseline serum LDH level less than 328 U/L could potentially be used as a cutoff value for predicting the efficacy of dupilumab.

Conclusion

Baseline biomarkers such as LDH and periostin and clinical background factors such as current comorbidity of food allergy and a long period of severe disease may be useful indicators when choosing dupilumab for systemic treatment for AD, as they can predict the efficacy of dupilumab.

Long-acting antiretroviral therapy effectiveness and patient satisfaction using patient questionnaires: data from a real-world setting

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection has evolved substantially. The development of long-acting drugs, such as cabotegravir (CAB) and rilpivirine (RPV) might improve treatment satisfaction among people living with HIV (PLWH). The real-world effectiveness of long-acting ART and its effect on patient satisfaction needs to be assessed. This study investigated antiviral effectiveness and treatment satisfaction in PLWH who switched from conventional to long-acting ART (CAB + RPV).

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included PLWH aged 18 years and older who switched to CAB + RPV and received the injections every 8 weeks between June 2022 and May 2023, after a 4-week oral lead-in phase. The eligibility criteria included viral suppression, absence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, and no prior RPV resistance mutations. Clinical data, including renal, lipid, and glucose biomarker levels, were monitored from the baseline to 44 weeks after switching. Treatment satisfaction was assessed using the HIV Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire. A linear mixed-effects model was used to estimate changes in clinical data from baseline.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight male participants were enrolled. Some participants had detectable levels of viral replication; however, all participants maintained viral suppression (HIV-RNA < 50 copies/mL) at 44 weeks and no cases of virological failure were detected. The creatinine level decreased by - 0.04 mg/dL (95% confidence interval [CI]: - 0.07 to - 0.01), lipid and glucose profiles remained stable, and treatment satisfaction increased by 6.6 points (95% CI: 2.4 to 10.8) after switching to CAB + RPV.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-acting ART provides effective viral suppression and enhances treatment satisfaction in PLWH switching from conventional ART. Long-acting ART can improve patient well-being; however, patient selection and monitoring to prevent HBV-related complications are important.

Accuracy of odor-based microorganism identification by microbiological technologists with different years of experience: A cross-sectional study

Introduction

Elucidating the characteristic odors of microbes can facilitate microorganism identification. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of microbial identification based on odor and its association with years of experience among microbiological technologists.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted on February 19, 2023, in Osaka, Japan, in a laboratory capable of handling microorganisms that were rated at or below biosafety level 2. This study included 70 microbiological technologists (including 45 women) with a mean experience of 7.1 years (standard deviation, 5.7). Ten bacterial strains with distinct odors were selected. Participants were blindfolded and asked to identify the bacterial strains based on odor of cultured microbes alone. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used for data analysis. The primary outcome was the number of accurately identified bacterial strains per year of experience.

Results

The number of years of experience was not significantly associated with the accuracy of odor identification (regression coefficient = 0.037 [95 % confidence interval: 0.038 to 0.113]). Additionally, generally low accuracy was noted in the identification of individual microbial species.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that microorganism identification based solely on odor is challenging. Incorporating additional information, such as visual cues, may enhance the identification accuracy.

Cross-sectional surveillance study of long COVID in Toyonaka city, Osaka prefecture, Japan

BACKGROUND

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues, concerns about long-term health impacts, specifically long COVID, persist. While the prevalence and symptomatology of long COVID have been explored in various global contexts, large-scale cohort studies in Japan remain limited, especially after the advent of the Omicron variant.

METHODS

In this observational study, 4,047 residents with a history of COVID-19 living in Toyonaka City, Osaka Prefecture, were assessed for long COVID symptoms using the VOICE mobile application and a paper survey. Respondents provided demographic and health information, as well as information regarding COVID-19 infection and subsequent symptoms. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95 % confidence intervals for overall morbidity of long COVID symptoms.

RESULTS

The survey found that 5.2 % of participants reported the persistence of one or more symptoms at 30 days post-onset. Fatigue was the most commonly reported symptom (1.75 %), followed by hair loss (1.41 %), and cough (1.28 %). Factors associated with an increased risk of experiencing long COVID symptoms included BMI, severe illness during the acute phase, and infection with certain COVID-19 variant strains, including Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. However, the incidence rate of long COVID appears to be decreasing with the dominance of the Omicron variant.

CONCLUSIONS

This large-scale study from Toyonaka City suggests a 5.2 % prevalence rate for persistent COVID-19 symptoms 4 weeks post-infection, potentially indicating a lower prevalence of long COVID in Japanese populations after the rise of the Omicron variant.

Oral mouthwashes for asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic adults with COVID-19 and salivary viral load: a randomized, placebo-controlled, open-label clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Recent randomized clinical trials suggest that the effect of using cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) mouthwashes on the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load in COVID-19 patients has been inconsistent. Additionally, no clinical study has investigated the effectiveness of on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash against COVID-19.

METHODS

We performed a randomized, placebo-controlled, open-label clinical trial to assess for any effects of using mouthwash on the salivary SARS-CoV-2 viral load among asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic adult COVID-19-positive patients. Patients were randomized to receive either 20 mL of 0.05% CPC, 10 mL of 0.01% on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide, or 20 mL of placebo mouthwash (purified water) in a 1:1:1 ratio. The primary endpoint was the cycle threshold (Ct) values employed for SARS-CoV-2 salivary viral load estimation. We used linear mixed-effects models to assess for any effect of the mouthwashes on SARS-CoV-2 salivary viral load.

RESULTS

Of a total of 96 eligible participants enrolled from November 7, 2022, to January 19, 2023, 90 were accepted for the primary analysis. The use of 0.05% CPC mouthwash was not shown to be superior to placebo in change from baseline salivary Ct value at 30 min (difference vs. placebo, 0.640; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.425 to 2.706; P = 0.543); 2 h (difference vs. placebo, 1.158; 95% CI, -0.797 to 3.112; P = 0.246); 4 h (difference vs. placebo, 1.283; 95% CI, -0.719 to 3.285; P = 0.209); 10 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.304; 95% CI, -1.777 to 2.385; P = 0.775); or 24 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.782; 95% CI, -1.195 to 2.759; P = 0.438). The use of 0.01% on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash was also not shown to be superior to placebo in change from baseline salivary Ct value at 30 min (difference vs. placebo, 0.905; 95% CI, -1.079 to 2.888; P = 0.371); 2 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.709; 95% CI, -1.275 to 2.693; P = 0.483); 4 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.220; 95% CI, -1.787 to 2.226; P = 0.830); 10 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.198; 95% CI, -1.901 to 2.296; P = 0.854); or 24 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.784; 95% CI, -1.236 to 2.804; P = 0.447).

CONCLUSIONS

In asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic adults with COVID-19, compared to placebo, the use of 0.05% CPC and 0.01% on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash did not lead to a significant reduction in SARS-CoV-2 salivary viral load. Future studies of the efficacy of CPC and on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash on the viral viability of SARS-CoV-2 should be conducted using different specimen types and in multiple populations and settings.

Using novel micropore technology combined with artificial intelligence to differentiate Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus epidermidis

Methods for identifying bacterial pathogens are broadly categorised into conventional culture-based microbiology, nucleic acid-based tests, and mass spectrometry. The conventional method requires several days to isolate and identify bacteria. Nucleic acid-based tests and mass spectrometry are relatively rapid and reliable, but they require trained technicians. Moreover, mass spectrometry requires expensive equipment. The development of a novel, inexpensive, and simple technique for identifying bacterial pathogens is needed. Through combining micropore technology and assembly machine learning, we developed a novel classifier whose receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.94, which rapidly differentiated between Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus epidermidis in this proof-of-concept study. Morphologically similar bacteria belonging to an identical genus can be distinguished using our method, which requires no specific training, and may facilitate the diagnosis and treatment of patients with bacterial infections in remote areas and in developing countries.

The ability of biomarkers to assess the severity of atopic dermatitis

Background

To develop precision medicine for atopic dermatitis (AD), it is critical to establish relevant biomarkers. However, the characteristics of various biomarkers have not been fully understood. We previously carried out the Biomarkers to Predict Clinical Improvement of AD in Patients Treated with Dupilumab (B-PAD) study, a comprehensive nationwide study in Japan, to explore biomarkers for AD.

Objective

The aim of this study is to find biomarkers associated with objective and subjective clinical findings in patients with moderate-to-severe AD based on the B-PAD study and to identify biomarkers sensitive enough to assess the severity of AD.

Methods

We performed the B-PAD study as a consortium composed of 19 medical facilities in Japan, enrolling 110 patients with moderate-to-severe AD. We evaluated the Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI) for objective assessment as well as the Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) and a numeric rating scale for pruritus (pruritis-NRS) for subjective assessment, measuring 19 biomarkers at baseline.

Results

We found that 12, 6, and 7 biomarkers showed significant and positive associations with the EASI, POEM, and pruritis-NRS, respectively. Most of the biomarkers associated with either the POEM or the pruritis-NRS were included among the biomarkers associated with EASI. Of the biomarkers examined, CCL26/eotaxin-3 and SCCA2 were the most capable of assessing severity for EASI, as shown by the 2 kinds of receiver operating characteristic analyses, respectively, whereas lactate dehydrogenase was the best for both the POEM and pruritis-NRS, again using the 2 analyses.

Conclusion

We found biomarkers associated with the EASI, POEM, and pruritis-NRS, respectively, based on the B-PAD study. Moreover, we identified CCL26/eotaxin-3 and/or SCCA2 as the biomarkers having the greatest ability to assess severity in the EASI; lactate dehydrogenase did the same for the POEM and pruritis-NRS. These findings will be useful in treating patients with moderate-to-severe AD.

Protocol for a Randomized, Open-Label Clinical Trial on the Effect of Mouthwash on Salivary SARS-CoV-2 Load

Mouthwashes containing cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) or on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide (ACD) have potential to reduce the salivary severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) load in individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study will evaluate the effect of CPC and on-demand ACD mouthwashes on salivary SARS-CoV-2 levels in individuals with acute asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) staying in a residential recuperation facility in Osaka, Japan. This randomized, open-label clinical trial will include three equal-sized groups (CPC mouthwash, on-demand ACD mouthwash, and placebo), with 30 participants per group. A stratified replacement block method will be used to ensure balanced allocation based on symptom presence and days since symptom onset. Participants will use mouthwash at set times for 7 days or until the end of recuperation. Saliva samples will be collected at multiple time points and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The primary outcome will be changes in salivary SARS-CoV-2 viral load 2 h after the first mouthwash use compared with the pre-mouthwash level. Secondary outcomes will include changes in salivary viral load and clinical parameters at different time points. This study was registered with the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials on 18 October 2022 (jRCTs051220107).

Analysis of Concentrated COVID-19 Outbreaks in Elderly Facilities in Suita City, Osaka Prefecture, Japan

There are several types of facilities for elderly individuals in Japan. Infection control efforts, such as care provision and medical care access, differ according to the type of facility. Elderly individuals at these facilities who were infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) experienced severe illness and mortality. This study aimed to determine the characteristics of concentrated COVID-19 outbreaks that occurred in nursing homes and care facilities in Suita City. During this study, twenty-five elderly facilities in Suita City with a capacity of 40 or more individuals where an outbreak occurred during the sixth or seventh wave of infection were included. We investigated whether there was a difference in the COVID-19 incidence and the percentage of positive cases according to the type of facility. We also investigated the relationship between the facility capacity and positive case rate and that between the number of positive cases and outbreak duration. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was significantly different according to the facility type (p < 0.001). No association was found between the facility capacity and positive case rate. The outbreak duration increased as the number of positive cases increased (p = 0.004).

National trends in the outcomes of subarachnoid haemorrhage and the prognostic influence of stroke centre capability in Japan: retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the national, 6-year trends in in-hospital clinical outcomes of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) who underwent clipping or coiling and the prognostic influence of temporal trends in the Comprehensive Stroke Center (CSC) capabilities on patient outcomes in Japan.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Six hundred and thirty-one primary care institutions in Japan.

PARTICIPANTS

Forty-five thousand and eleven patients with SAH who were urgently hospitalised, identified using the J-ASPECT Diagnosis Procedure Combination database.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Annual number of patients with SAH who remained untreated, or who received clipping or coiling, in-hospital mortality and poor functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale: 3-6) at discharge. Each CSC was assessed using a validated scoring system (CSC score: 1-25 points).

RESULTS

In the overall cohort, in-hospital mortality decreased (year for trend, OR (95% CI): 0.97 (0.96 to 0.99)), while the proportion of poor functional outcomes remained unchanged (1.00 (0.98 to 1.02)). The proportion of patients who underwent clipping gradually decreased from 46.6% to 38.5%, while that of those who received coiling and those left untreated gradually increased from 16.9% to 22.6% and 35.4% to 38%, respectively. In-hospital mortality of coiled (0.94 (0.89 to 0.98)) and untreated (0.93 (0.90 to 0.96)) patients decreased, whereas that of clipped patients remained stable. CSC score improvement was associated with increased use of coiling (per 1-point increase, 1.14 (1.08 to 1.20)) but not with short-term patient outcomes regardless of treatment modality.

CONCLUSIONS

The 6-year trends indicated lower in-hospital mortality for patients with SAH (attributable to better outcomes), increased use of coiling and multidisciplinary care for untreated patients. Further increasing CSC capabilities may improve overall outcomes, mainly by increasing the use of coiling. Additional studies are necessary to determine the effect of confounders such as aneurysm complexity on outcomes of clipped patients in the modern endovascular era.

Early vascular responses to abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated versus circumferential durable polymer-coated newer-generation drug-eluting stents in humans: a pathological study

BACKGROUND

Recent clinical studies are testing strategies for short (1-3 months) dual antiplatelet therapy following newer-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) placement. However, detailed biological responses to newer-generation DES remain unknown in humans.

AIMS

We sought to evaluate early pathologic responses to abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated (BP-) DES compared with circumferential durable polymer-coated (DP-) DES in human autopsy cases.

METHODS

The study included 38 coronary lesions with newer-generation DES implanted for <90 days (DP-DES=24, BP-DES=14) in 26 autopsy cases. The degree of strut coverage was defined as follows: grade 0 (bare), grade 1 (with fibrin or tissues/cells without endothelium), grade 2 (with single-layered endothelium), and grade 3 (with endothelium and underlying smooth muscle cell layers).

RESULTS

 The duration following implantation was similar in DP- and BP-DES (median=20 vs 17 days). A total of 2,022 struts (DP-DES=1,297, BP-DES=725) were pathologically analysed. Focal grade 2 coverage was observed as early as 5 days after the implantation in both stents. The multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model demonstrated that BP-DES exhibited greater strut coverage compared with DP-DES (odds ratio [OR]: 3.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37-9.67; p=0.009), which remained significant after adjustment for the duration following implantation and underlying tissue characteristics (OR: 2.74, 95% CI: 1.10-6.80; p=0.030). The predictive probability of grade 2 and 3 coverage was comparably limited at 30 days (DP-DES=17.1%, BP-DES=28.7%) and increased at 90 days (DP-DES=76.5%, BP-DES=86.6%). Both stents showed low inflammation and a similar degree of fibrin deposition.

CONCLUSIONS

Single-layered endothelial coverage begins in the days after newer-generation DES placement, and BP-DES potentially exhibit faster strut coverage with smooth muscle cell infiltration than DP-DES in humans. Nevertheless, vessel healing remains suboptimal in both stents at 30 days.

Early vascular responses to abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated versus circumferential durable polymer-coated newer-generation drug-eluting stents in humans: a pathologic study

Background

Recent clinical trials are testing strategies for short (1–3 months) dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) following newer-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) placement. However, the safety of short DAPT regimens is not supported by biological evidence in humans.

Purpose

We sought to evaluate early pathologic responses to newer-generation DES by comparing abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated DES (BP-DES) with circumferential durable polymer-coated DES (DP-DES) in human autopsy cases.

Methods

The study included a total of 37 coronary lesions with thin strut newer-generation DES (DP-DES=23 [XIENCE=18, Resolute Integrity=5] and BP-DES=14 [SYNERGY=9, Ultimaster=5]) with duration of implantation &lt;90 days in 25 autopsy cases. The process of stent healing was precisely evaluated for every single strut in association with underlying tissue characteristics. The degree of strut coverage was defined as follows: grade 0 (bare struts), grade 1 (struts covered with thrombus, fibrin, or other tissues or cells without endothelium), grade 2 (struts covered with single-layered endothelium without underlying smooth muscle cell layers), and grade 3 (struts covered with endothelium and underlying smooth muscle cell layers) (Figure 1).

Results

Duration of implantation was similar in lesions with DP-DES and those with BP-DES (median=20 vs. 17 days). A total of 1986 struts (DP-DES=1261, BP-DES=725) were pathologically analyzed. Focal grade 2 coverage was observed as early as 5 days after the implantation in both stents. Multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model demonstrated that BP-DES exhibited greater strut coverage compared with DP-DES (odds ratio; 3.50, 95% CI; 1.31–9.41, P=0.013), which remained significant after adjustment for duration of implantation and underlying tissue characteristics (odds ratio; 2.64, 95% CI; 1.04–6.68, P=0.040). The time course of vessel healing assessed as predictive probability of strut coverage (grade 0–3) stratified by duration of implantation is shown in Figure 2. Predictive probability of grade 2 and 3 coverage was comparably limited at 30 days (DP-DES=17.7% vs. BP-DES=29.0%) and increased at 90 days (DP-DES=76.1% vs. BP-DES=85.9%). Both stents showed few inflammation and similar degree of fibrin deposition.

Conclusions

The current first pathologic study on early biological responses to newer-generation DES in humans demonstrated that single-layered endothelial coverage begins in days following the stent placement, and abluminal BP-DES potentially exhibit faster strut coverage with smooth muscle cell infiltration than circumferential DP-DES. Nevertheless, vessel healing remains suboptimal at 30 days in both DP- and BP-DES, which progresses with time to become substantial at 90 days. Our results suggest that very short duration of DAPT for 1 month should be applied with caution, taking into account the trade-off between bleeding and thrombotic risks.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Accuracy of wristwatch-type photoplethysmography in detecting atrial fibrillation in daily life. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. DIGITAL HEALTH 2022;3:455-464. [PMID: 36712156 PMCID: PMC9707983 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztac041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Aims

Detection of asymptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation is challenging. Smartphone- or smartwatch-based photoplethysmography is efficient at detecting irregular rhythms using pulse waves but is too complex for older patients. We aimed to evaluate the detection accuracy of atrial fibrillation by a wristwatch-type continuous pulse wave monitor (PWM) in daily life.

Methods and results

Patients at high risk of atrial fibrillation but with no history of atrial fibrillation (n = 163; mean CHADS₂ score, 1.9) and patients with known atrial fibrillation (n = 123, including 34 with persistent atrial fibrillation) underwent PWM and telemetry electrocardiogram recording for 3 days. Risk of atrial fibrillation was judged using the 'Kyorin Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score', a scoring system based on previously reported atrial fibrillation risk scoring systems. The PWM assessed the presence of atrial fibrillation at 30 min intervals, and the results were compared with the telemetry electrocardiogram findings. The PWMs accurately diagnosed two patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in the high-risk group. The PWMs accurately diagnosed 48 of the 55 patients with atrial fibrillation in the known-atrial fibrillation group. The PWM accuracy in detecting patients with atrial fibrillation was as follows: sensitivity, 98.0%; specificity, 90.6%; positive predictive value, 69.4%; negative predictive value, 99.5%. The respective values for intervals with atrial fibrillation were 86.9%, 98.8%, 89.6%, and 98.5%.

Conclusion

The wristwatch-type PWM has shown feasibility in detecting atrial fibrillation in daily life and showed the possibility of being used as a screening tool.

Endothelial Natriuretic Peptide Receptor 1 Play Crucial Role for Acute and Chronic Blood Pressure Regulation by Atrial Natriuretic Peptide

BACKGROUND

ANP (atrial natriuretic peptide), acting through NPR1 (natriuretic peptide receptor 1), provokes hypotension. Such hypotension is thought to be due to ANP inducing vasodilation via NPR1 in the vasculature; however, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here, we investigated the mechanisms of acute and chronic blood pressure regulation by ANP.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Immunohistochemical analysis of rat tissues revealed that NPR1 was abundantly expressed in endothelial cells and smooth muscle cells of small arteries and arterioles. Intravenous infusion of ANP significantly lowered systolic blood pressure in wild-type mice. ANP also significantly lowered systolic blood pressure in smooth muscle cell-specific Npr1-knockout mice but not in endothelial cell-specific Npr1-knockout mice. Moreover, ANP significantly lowered systolic blood pressure in Nos3-knockout mice. In human umbilical vein endothelial cells, treatment with ANP did not influence nitric oxide production or intracellular Ca²⁺ concentration, but it did hyperpolarize the cells. ANP-induced hyperpolarization of human umbilical vein endothelial cells was inhibited by several potassium channel blockers and was also abolished under knockdown of RGS2 (regulator of G-protein signaling 2), an GTPase activating protein in G-protein α-subunit. ANP increased Rgs2 mRNA expression in human umbilical vein endothelial cells but failed to lower systolic blood pressure in Rgs2-knockout mice. Endothelial cell-specific Npr1-overexpressing mice exhibited lower blood pressure than did wild-type mice independent of RGS2, and showed dilation of arterial vessels on synchrotron radiation microangiography.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these results indicate that vascular endothelial NPR1 plays a crucial role in ANP-mediated blood pressure regulation, presumably by a mechanism that is RGS2-dependent in the acute phase and RGS2-independent in the chronic phase.

Impact of Seizure Recurrence on 1-Year Functional Outcome and Mortality in Patients With Poststroke Epilepsy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The functional outcome and mortality of post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) patients have not been assessed in a prospective study. Previous reports have suggested that PSE patients may suffer from prolonged functional deterioration following a seizure. In the current study, we prospectively investigated the functional outcome and mortality of PSE patients and analyzed the impact of seizure recurrence on the outcomes.

METHODS

This is part of the Prognosis of Post-Stroke Epilepsy (PROPOSE) study, a multicenter, prospective observational cohort study, where 392 PSE patients (at least one unprovoked seizure more than 7 days after the onset of the last symptomatic stroke) were followed for at least 1 year at eight hospitals in Japan. The current study included only PSE patients with a first-ever seizure and assessed their functional decline and mortality at 1 year. Functional decline was defined as an increase in modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 1 year compared to baseline, excluding death. The associations between seizure recurrence and the outcomes were analyzed statistically.

RESULTS

A total of 211 patients (median age of 75 years; median mRS score of 3) were identified. At 1 year, 50 patients (23.7%) experienced seizure recurrence. Regarding outcomes, 25 patients (11.8%) demonstrated functional decline, and 20 (9.5%) had died. Most patients died of pneumonia or cardiac disease (seven patients each), and no known causes of death were directly related to recurrent seizures. Seizure recurrence was significantly associated with functional decline (odds ratio 2.96 [95% CI 1.25-7.03], P=0.01), even after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted odds ratio 3.26 [95% CI 1.27-8.36], P=0.01), but not with mortality (odds ratio 0.79 [95% CI 0.18-2.61], P=0.79). Moreover, there was a significant trend where patients with more recurrent seizures were more likely to have functional decline (8.7%, 20.6%, and 28.6% in none, 1, and 2 or more recurrent seizures, respectively; P=0.006).

DISCUSSION

One-year functional outcome and mortality of PSE patients were poor. Seizure recurrence was significantly associated with functional outcome, but not with mortality. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether early and adequate anti-seizure treatment can prevent the functional deterioration of PSE patients.

Influence of hospital capabilities and prehospital time on outcomes of thrombectomy for stroke in Japan from 2013 to 2016

To determine whether increasing thrombectomy-capable hospitals with moderate comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities is a valid alternative to centralization of those with high CSC capabilities. This retrospective, nationwide, observational study used data from the J-ASPECT database linked to national emergency medical service (EMS) records, captured during 2013–2016. We compared the influence of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) use, the CSC score, and the total EMS response time on the modified Rankin Scale score at discharge among patients with acute ischemic stroke transported by ambulance, in phases I (2013–2014, 1461 patients) and II (2015–2016, 3259 patients). We used ordinal logistic regression analyses to analyze outcomes. From phase I to II, MTs increased from 2.7 to 5.5%, and full-time endovascular physicians per hospital decreased. The CSC score and EMS response time remained unchanged. In phase I, higher CSC scores were associated with better outcomes (1-point increase, odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.951 [0.915–0.989]) and longer EMS response time was associated with worse outcomes (1-min increase, 1.007 [1.001–1.013]). In phase II, neither influenced the outcomes. During the transitional shortage of thrombectomy-capable hospitals, increasing hospitals with moderate CSC scores may increase nationwide access to MT, improving outcomes.

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group.

Methods

Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015–December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level.

Results

In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of −20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): −38 367 to −5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of −1.7% (95% eCI: −3.1 to −0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70–79 years.

Conclusions

All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

Antiseizure medications for post-stroke epilepsy: A real-world prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The management of post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) should ideally include prevention of both seizure and adverse effects; however, an optimal antiseizure medications (ASM) regimen has yet been established. The purpose of this study is to assess seizure recurrence, retention, and tolerability of older-generation and newer-generation ASM for PSE.

METHODS

This prospective multicenter cohort study (PROgnosis of Post-Stroke Epilepsy [PROPOSE] study) was conducted from November 2014 to September 2019 at eight hospitals. A total of 372 patients admitted and treated with ASM at discharge were recruited. Due to the non-interventional nature of the study, ASM regimen was not adjusted and followed standard hospital practices. The primary outcome was seizure recurrence in patients receiving older-generation and newer-generation ASM. The secondary outcomes were the retention and tolerability of ASM regimens.

RESULTS

Of the 372 PSE patients with ASM at discharge (median [IQR] age, 73 [64-81] years; 139 women [37.4%]), 36 were treated with older-generation, 286 with newer-generation, and 50 with mixed-generation ASM. In older- and newer-generation ASM groups (n = 322), 98 patients (30.4%) had recurrent seizures and 91 patients (28.3%) switched ASM regimen during the follow-up (371 [347-420] days). Seizure recurrence was lower in newer-generation, compared with the older-generation, ASM (hazard ratio [HR], 0.42, 95%CI 0.27-0.70; p = .0013). ASM regimen withdrawal and change of dosages were lower in newer-generation ASM (HR, 0.34, 95% CI 0.21-0.56, p < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Newer-generation ASM possess advantages over older-generation ASM for secondary prophylaxis of post-stroke seizures in clinical practice.

Heatstroke predictions by machine learning, weather information, and an all-population registry for 12-hour heatstroke alerts

This study aims to develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases, and heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases per city per 12 h, using multiple weather information and a population-based database for heatstroke patients in 16 Japanese cities (corresponding to around a 10,000,000 population size). In the testing dataset, mean absolute percentage error of generalized linear models with wet bulb globe temperature as the only predictor and the optimal models, respectively, are 43.0% and 14.8% for spikes in the number of all heatstroke cases, and 37.7% and 10.6% for spikes in the number of heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases. The optimal models predict the spikes in the number of heatstrokes well by machine learning methods including non-linear multivariable predictors and/or under-sampling and bagging. Here, we develop prediction models whose predictive performances are high enough to be implemented in public health settings.

In the context of climate change, heatstroke is expected to become an increasingly relevant public health concern. Here, the authors develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases in different cities in Japan.

Machine learning model for predicting out-of-hospital cardiac arrests using meteorological and chronological data

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate a predictive model for robust estimation of daily out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) incidence using a suite of machine learning (ML) approaches and high-resolution meteorological and chronological data.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we combined an OHCA nationwide registry and high-resolution meteorological and chronological datasets from Japan. We developed a model to predict daily OHCA incidence with a training dataset for 2005-2013 using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm. A dataset for 2014-2015 was used to test the predictive model. The main outcome was the accuracy of the predictive model for the number of daily OHCA events, based on mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In general, a model with MAPE less than 10% is considered highly accurate.

RESULTS

Among the 1 299 784 OHCA cases, 661 052 OHCA cases of cardiac origin (525 374 cases in the training dataset on which fourfold cross-validation was performed and 135 678 cases in the testing dataset) were included in the analysis. Compared with the ML models using meteorological or chronological variables alone, the ML model with combined meteorological and chronological variables had the highest predictive accuracy in the training (MAE 1.314 and MAPE 7.007%) and testing datasets (MAE 1.547 and MAPE 7.788%). Sunday, Monday, holiday, winter, low ambient temperature and large interday or intraday temperature difference were more strongly associated with OHCA incidence than other the meteorological and chronological variables.

CONCLUSIONS

A ML predictive model using comprehensive daily meteorological and chronological data allows for highly precise estimates of OHCA incidence.

Improvements of predictive power of B-type natriuretic peptide on admission by mathematically estimating its discharge levels in hospitalised patients with acute heart failure

BACKGROUNDS

Earlier studies showed that in patients with heart failure (HF), circulating levels of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) at hospital discharge (BNP_dis) are more predictive of prognosis than BNP levels on admission (BNP_ad). However, the mechanism underlying that difference has not been fully elucidated. We examined the association between confounding factors during hospitalisation and BNP_dis in patients with HF.

METHODS

We identified patients admitted to our hospital for HF (BNP_ad ≥100 pg/mL). Estimated left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (eLVEDP) was calculated using echocardiographic data. To identify the factors associated with the relation between BNP_ad and BNP_dis, we performed a stepwise regression analysis of retrospective data. To validate that analysis, we performed a prospective study.

RESULTS

Through stepwise regression of the patient data (n=688, New York Heart Association 3-4, 88%), we found age, blood urea nitrogen and eLVEDP to be significantly (p<0.05) associated with BNP_dis. Through multivariate analysis after accounting for these factors, we created a formula for predicting BNP levels at discharge (predicted-BNP_dis) from BNP_ad and other parameters measured at admission (p<0.05). By statistically adjusting for these factors, the prognostic power of BNP_ad was significantly improved (p<0.001). The prospective study also confirmed the strong correlation between predicted-BNP_dis and BNP_dis (n=104, r=0.625, p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that statistically accounting for confounding factors affecting BNP levels improves the predictive power of BNP levels measured at the time of hospital admission, suggesting that these confounding factors are associated with lowering predictive power of BNP on admission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN 000034409, 00035428.

Effects of case volume and comprehensive stroke center capabilities on patient outcomes of clipping and coiling for subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Improved outcomes in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) treated at high-volume centers have been reported. The authors sought to examine whether hospital case volume and comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities affect outcomes in patients treated with clipping or coiling for SAH.

METHODS

The authors conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study in 27,490 SAH patients who underwent clipping or coiling in 621 institutions between 2010 and 2015 and whose data were collected from the Japanese nationwide J-ASPECT Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. The CSC capabilities of each hospital were assessed by use of a validated scoring system based on answers to a previously reported 25-item questionnaire (CSC score 1-25 points). Hospitals were classified into quartiles based on CSC scores and case volumes of clipping or coiling for SAH.

RESULTS

Overall, the absolute risk reductions associated with high versus low case volumes and high versus low CSC scores were relatively small. Nevertheless, in patients who underwent clipping, a high case volume (> 14 cases/yr) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (Q1 as control, Q4 OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55-0.90) but not with short-term poor outcome. In patients who underwent coiling, a high case volume (> 9 cases/yr) was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (Q4 OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.90) and short-term poor outcomes (Q3 [> 5 cases/yr] OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.96 vs Q4 OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.51-0.82). A high CSC score (> 19 points) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality for clipping (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54-0.86) but not coiling treatment. There was no association between CSC capabilities and short-term poor outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of case volume and CSC capabilities on in-hospital mortality and short-term functional outcomes in SAH patients differed between patients undergoing clipping and those undergoing coiling. In the modern endovascular era, better outcomes of clipping may be achieved in facilities with high CSC capabilities.