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Pearce AL, Neuwald NV, Evans JS, Romano O, Rolls BJ, Keller KL. Child eating behaviors are consistently linked to intake across meals that vary in portion size. Appetite 2024; 196:107258. [PMID: 38341036 PMCID: PMC10948290 DOI: 10.1016/j.appet.2024.107258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Revised: 02/05/2024] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024]
Abstract
Prior studies evaluating a single meal in children characterized an "obesogenic" style of eating marked by larger bites and faster eating. It is unclear if this style is consistent across portion sizes within children so we examined eating behaviors in 91 children (7-8 years, 45 F) without obesity (BMI<90th percentile). Children consumed 4 ad libitum meals in the laboratory consisting of chicken nuggets, macaroni, grapes, and broccoli that varied in portion size (100%, 133%, 166%, 200%) with a maximum of 30 min allotted per meal. Anthropometrics were assessed using age and sex adjusted body mass index (BMI) percentile and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Bites, sips, active eating time, and meal duration were coded from meal videos; bite size (kcal and g/bite), proportion of active eating (active eating time/meal duration), and eating rate (kcal and g/meal duration) were computed. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) showed that most eating behaviors were moderately consistent across portions (>0.50). The consistency of associations between eating behaviors and total meal intake and adiposity were assessed with general linear models adjusted for food liking, pre-meal fullness, age, and sex. Across all portions, more bites, faster eating rate, and longer meal duration were associated with greater intake. While higher BMI percentile was associated with faster eating rates across all meals, greater fat mass index was only associated with faster eating at meals with portions typical for children (i.e., 100% and 133%). In a primarily healthy weight sample, an 'obesogenic' style of eating was a consistent predictor of greater intake across meals that varied in portion size. The consistent relationship of these behaviors with intake makes them promising targets to reduce overconsumption.
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Aryal S, Evans JS, Correira J, Burns AG, Wang W, Solomon SC, Laskar FI, McClintock WE, Eastes RW, Dang T, Lei J, Liu H, Jee G. First Global-Scale Synoptic Imaging of Solar Eclipse Effects in the Thermosphere. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. SPACE PHYSICS 2020. [PMID: 33282619 DOI: 10.1029/2020ja027823] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
A total solar eclipse occurred in the Southern Hemisphere on 2 July 2019 from approximately 17 to 22 UT. Its effect in the thermosphere over South America was imaged from geostationary orbit by NASA's Global-scale Observation of Limb and Disk (GOLD) instrument. GOLD observed a large brightness reduction (>80% around totality) in OI 135.6 nm and N2 LBH band emissions compared to baseline measurements made 2 days prior. In addition, a significant enhancement (with respect to the baseline) in the ΣO/N2 column density ratio (~80%) was observed within the eclipse's totality. This enhancement suggests that the eclipse induced compositional changes in the thermosphere. After the eclipse passed, a slight enhancement in ΣO/N2 column density ratio (~7%) was also seen around the totality path when compared to measurements before the eclipse. These observations are the first synoptic imaging measurements of an eclipse's thermospheric effects with the potential to drastically improve and test our understanding of how the thermosphere responds to rapid, localized changes in solar short wavelength radiation.
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Aryal S, Evans JS, Correira J, Burns AG, Wang W, Solomon SC, Laskar FI, McClintock WE, Eastes RW, Dang T, Lei J, Liu H, Jee G. First Global-Scale Synoptic Imaging of Solar Eclipse Effects in the Thermosphere. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. SPACE PHYSICS 2020; 125:e2020JA027789. [PMID: 33282619 PMCID: PMC7685169 DOI: 10.1029/2020ja027789] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2020] [Revised: 06/28/2020] [Accepted: 08/29/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
A total solar eclipse occurred in the Southern Hemisphere on 2 July 2019 from approximately 17 to 22 UT. Its effect in the thermosphere over South America was imaged from geostationary orbit by NASA's Global-scale Observation of Limb and Disk (GOLD) instrument. GOLD observed a large brightness reduction (>80% around totality) in OI 135.6 nm and N2 LBH band emissions compared to baseline measurements made 2 days prior. In addition, a significant enhancement (with respect to the baseline) in the ΣO/N2 column density ratio (~80%) was observed within the eclipse's totality. This enhancement suggests that the eclipse induced compositional changes in the thermosphere. After the eclipse passed, a slight enhancement in ΣO/N2 column density ratio (~7%) was also seen around the totality path when compared to measurements before the eclipse. These observations are the first synoptic imaging measurements of an eclipse's thermospheric effects with the potential to drastically improve and test our understanding of how the thermosphere responds to rapid, localized changes in solar short wavelength radiation.
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Ali AH, Amin R, Evans JS, Fischer M, Ford AT, Kibara A, Goheen JR. Evaluating support for rangeland‐restoration practices by rural Somalis: an unlikely win‐win for local livelihoods and hirola antelope? Anim Conserv 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Evans JS, Selden D, Wu G, Wright E, Horton DL, Fooks AR, Banyard AC. Antigenic site changes in the rabies virus glycoprotein dictates functionality and neutralizing capability against divergent lyssaviruses. J Gen Virol 2018; 99:169-180. [PMID: 29300155 DOI: 10.1099/jgv.0.000998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Lyssavirus infection has a near 100 % case fatality rate following the onset of clinical disease, and current rabies vaccines confer protection against all reported phylogroup I lyssaviruses. However, there is little or no protection against more divergent lyssaviruses and so investigation into epitopes within the glycoprotein (G) that dictate a neutralizing response against divergent lyssaviruses is warranted. Importantly, the facilities required to work with these pathogens, including wild-type and mutated forms of different lyssaviruses, are scarcely available and, as such, this type of study is inherently difficult to perform. The relevance of proposed immunogenic antigenic sites within the lyssavirus glycoprotein was assessed by swapping sites between phylogroup-I and -II glycoproteins. Demonstrable intra- but limited inter-phylogroup cross-neutralization was observed. Pseudotype viruses (PTVs) presenting a phylogroup-I glycoprotein containing phylogroup-II antigenic sites (I, II III or IV) were neutralized by antibodies raised against phylogroup-II PTV with the site II (IIb, aa 34-42 and IIa, aa 198-200)-swapped PTVs being efficiently neutralized, whilst site IV-swapped PTV was poorly neutralized. Specific antibodies raised against PTV-containing antigenic site swaps between phylogroup-I and -II glycoproteins neutralized phylogroup-I PTVs efficiently, indicating an immunodominance of antigenic site II. Live lyssaviruses containing antigenic site-swapped glycoproteins were generated and indicated that specific residues within the lyssavirus glycoprotein dictate functionality and enable differential neutralizing antibody responses to lyssaviruses.
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Evans JS, Huang SJ, McLean AS, Nalos M. Left ventricular outflow tract obstruction-be prepared! Anaesth Intensive Care 2017; 45:12-20. [PMID: 28072930 DOI: 10.1177/0310057x1704500103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
The current trend to treat hypotension in critically ill patients is to place a greater emphasis on inotropic support and less on fluid resuscitation in order to limit the potential harm from fluid overload. This combination may trigger left ventricular outflow tract obstruction (LVOTO) in susceptible patients. Although LVOTO is classically described in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy it has been reported in other conditions including septic shock, apical ballooning syndrome, myocardial infarction, respiratory failure, and post valvular surgery. It is more common in the elderly, females, and in patients with hypertension, diabetes, and chronic vascular disease because of predisposing anatomical conditions such as left ventricular hypertrophy, small left ventricle size, sigmoid septum and alterations in the positions of the aortic and mitral valve annular planes. The onset of LVOTO is largely unpredictable due to a complex interplay between preload, afterload, heart rhythm and rate in susceptible patients. The consequences of missing this treatable condition may lead to life-threatening hypotension refractory to, or exacerbated by, a further increase in inotropic support. Dynamic LVOTO should be considered in any hypotensive intensive care patient. Echocardiography is perhaps the best tool to assess LVOTO and its underlying pathophysiology in the critically ill. Detection of LVOTO is a relatively simple task using a combination of two-dimensional, M-mode and spectral Doppler imaging by an operator alert to the possible diagnosis.
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Schneider NM, Deighan JI, Jain SK, Stiepen A, Stewart AIF, Larson D, Mitchell DL, Mazelle C, Lee CO, Lillis RJ, Evans JS, Brain D, Stevens MH, McClintock WE, Chaffin MS, Crismani M, Holsclaw GM, Lefevre F, Lo DY, Clarke JT, Montmessin F, Jakosky BM. Discovery of diffuse aurora on Mars. Science 2015; 350:aad0313. [PMID: 26542577 DOI: 10.1126/science.aad0313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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Lelieveld J, Evans JS, Fnais M, Giannadaki D, Pozzer A. The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Nature 2015; 525:367-71. [PMID: 26381985 DOI: 10.1038/nature15371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1937] [Impact Index Per Article: 215.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2014] [Accepted: 07/27/2015] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
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Browne C, Munang ML, Evans JS, Smith EG, Khanom S, Hawkey P, Kunst H, Welch S, Dedicoat M. P99 Impact of TB cluster investigation in a new migrant community. Thorax 2013. [DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2013-204457.249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Munang ML, Browne C, Khanom S, Smith EG, Evans JS, Hawkey P, Kunst H, Welch S, Dedicoat ML. P91 Incorporating tuberculosis strain typing data into routine contact tracing investigations: experience from the field. Thorax 2013. [DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2013-204457.241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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Correira J, Strickland DJ, Evans JS, Knight HK, Hecht JH. A downward revision of a recently reported proton auroral LBH emission efficiency. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010ja016016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Lean JL, Woods TN, Eparvier FG, Meier RR, Strickland DJ, Correira JT, Evans JS. Solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance: Present, past, and future. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010ja015901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Wright RJ, Fay ME, Suglia SF, Clark CJ, Evans JS, Dockery DW, Behbehani J. War-related stressors are associated with asthma risk among older Kuwaitis following the 1990 Iraqi invasion and occupation. J Epidemiol Community Health 2010; 64:630-5. [PMID: 20231738 DOI: 10.1136/jech.2009.090795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Contemporary warfare involving civilian populations is a growing public health concern. In addition to the psychological impact, war-related trauma may result in physiological alterations and even broader health effects. Associations were examined between war-related stressors and incident asthma in elderly Kuwaiti civilians following the Iraqi invasion. METHODS A random sample of all Kuwaiti nationals aged 50-69 years on the day prior to the invasion were identified. Among the 7873 meeting eligibility criteria, 5567 (71%) agreed to participate and 5028 completed the questionnaire (91% of those eligible). Of these, 3759 were in Kuwait during the invasion, of whom 2294 were alive at follow-up. After exclusions for prevalent asthma or missingness on covariates, 2066 were available for analysis. War-related experiences were summarised into a continuous score using Rasch modelling. Relative Cox proportional hazard rates (HR) were calculated for asthma adjusting for covariates. RESULTS Over 13 years of follow-up, physician-diagnosed asthma was reported by 66/996 (6.6%) men and 104/1070 (9.7%) women. In models adjusted for gender, socioeconomic status, smoking, BMI, and air pollution related to burning oil fires, those reporting highest stress exposure were more than twice as likely to report asthma (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3, 3.9) compared to civilians reporting no stressors. Experiences were more salient when anchored to fear for loss of life. CONCLUSIONS War-related trauma is associated with increased asthma risk in these elderly civilians. Although prior research has documented the significant and persistent psychological toll of war, these findings implicate even broader health effects.
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Storfer A, Murphy MA, Evans JS, Goldberg CS, Robinson S, Spear SF, Dezzani R, Delmelle E, Vierling L, Waits LP. Putting the ‘landscape’ in landscape genetics. Heredity (Edinb) 2006; 98:128-42. [PMID: 17080024 DOI: 10.1038/sj.hdy.6800917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 477] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Landscape genetics has emerged as a new research area that integrates population genetics, landscape ecology and spatial statistics. Researchers in this field can combine the high resolution of genetic markers with spatial data and a variety of statistical methods to evaluate the role that landscape variables play in shaping genetic diversity and population structure. While interest in this research area is growing rapidly, our ability to fully utilize landscape data, test explicit hypotheses and truly integrate these diverse disciplines has lagged behind. Part of the current challenge in the development of the field of landscape genetics is bridging the communication and knowledge gap between these highly specific and technical disciplines. The goal of this review is to help bridge this gap by exposing geneticists to terminology, sampling methods and analysis techniques widely used in landscape ecology and spatial statistics but rarely addressed in the genetics literature. We offer a definition for the term "landscape genetics", provide an overview of the landscape genetics literature, give guidelines for appropriate sampling design and useful analysis techniques, and discuss future directions in the field. We hope, this review will stimulate increased dialog and enhance interdisciplinary collaborations advancing this exciting new field.
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Evans JS, Ford BM, Balmaña J, Stoffel EM, Mayer RJ, Syngal S. Factors predicting willingness to participate in cancer genetic epidemiologic research. J Clin Oncol 2005. [DOI: 10.1200/jco.2005.23.16_suppl.6007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
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Lagemann RT, Evans JS, McMillan DR. Ultrasonic Velocity in Some Organic Halides: Constitutive Effects. J Am Chem Soc 2002. [DOI: 10.1021/ja01189a048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Lagemann RT, Woolf WE, Evans JS, Underwood N. Ultrasonic Velocity in Some Liquid Fluorocarbons1. J Am Chem Soc 2002. [DOI: 10.1021/ja01189a047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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DeVries WH, Govier WM, Evans JS, Gregory JD, Novelli GD, Soodak M, Lipmann F. PURIFICATION OF COENZYME A FROM FERMENTATION SOURCES AND ITS FURTHER PARTIAL IDENTIFICATION. J Am Chem Soc 2002. [DOI: 10.1021/ja01166a532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Levy JI, Carrothers TJ, Tuomisto JT, Hammitt JK, Evans JS. Assessing the public health benefits of reduced ozone concentrations. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2001; 109:1215-26. [PMID: 11748028 PMCID: PMC1240503 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.011091215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
In this paper we examine scientific evidence and related uncertainties in two steps of benefit-cost analyses of ozone reduction: estimating the health improvements attributable to reductions in ozone and determining the appropriate monetary values of these improvements. Although substantial evidence exists on molecular and physiologic impacts, the evidence needed to establish concentration-response functions is somewhat limited. Furthermore, because exposure to ozone depends on factors such as air conditioning use, past epidemiologic studies may not be directly applicable in unstudied settings. To evaluate the evidence likely to contribute significantly to benefits, we focus on four health outcomes: premature mortality, chronic asthma, respiratory hospital admissions, and minor restricted activity days. We determine concentration-response functions for these health outcomes for a hypothetical case study in Houston, Texas, using probabilistic weighting reflecting our judgment of the strength of the evidence and the possibility of confounding. We make a similar presentation for valuation, where uncertainty is due primarily to the lack of willingness-to-pay data for the population affected by ozone. We estimate that the annual monetary value of health benefits from reducing ozone concentrations in Houston is approximately $10 per person per microgram per cubic meter (24-hr average) reduced (95% confidence interval, $0.70-$40). The central estimate exceeds past estimates by approximately a factor of five, driven by the inclusion of mortality. We discuss the implications of our findings for future analyses and determine areas of research that might help reduce the uncertainties in benefit estimation.
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Evans IR, Howard JA, Withers RL, Evans JS. Ab initio structure determination of BiPb2VO6 from powder diffraction data. Chem Commun (Camb) 2001:1984-5. [PMID: 12240251 DOI: 10.1039/b105242j] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
The crystal structure of BiPb2VO6 has been determined from powder diffraction data using a combination of direct methods and the novel approach of applying simulated annealing methods simultaneously to X-ray and neutron data; BiPb2VO6 is a polar, noncentrosymmetric, second harmonic generation active material and its crystal structure is one of the more complex to be solved ab initio from powder diffraction data.
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King IJ, Fayon F, Massiot D, Harris RK, Evans JS. A space group assignment of ZrP2O7 obtained by 31P solid state NMR. Chem Commun (Camb) 2001:1766-7. [PMID: 12240305 DOI: 10.1039/b106379k] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
2-D 31P dipolar recoupling magic angle spinning NMR has been used to determine the true symmetry of the low temperature structure of ZrP2O7 for the first time.
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Weinstein MC, Toy EL, Sandberg EA, Neumann PJ, Evans JS, Kuntz KM, Graham JD, Hammitt JK. Modeling for health care and other policy decisions: uses, roles, and validity. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2001; 4:348-361. [PMID: 11705125 DOI: 10.1046/j.1524-4733.2001.45061.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 118] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The controversy stems in part from a misconception that the role of models is to establish truth rather than to guide clinical and policy decisions. In other domains of public policy that involve human life and health, such as environmental protection and defense strategy, models are generally accepted as decision aids, and many models have been formally incorporated into regulatory processes and governmental decision making. We formulate an analytical framework for evaluating the role of models as aids to decision making. Implications for the implementation of Section 114 of the Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act (FDAMA) are derived from this framework.
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Evans JS, Rhomberg LR, Williams PL, Wilson AM, Baird SJ. Reproductive and developmental risks from ethylene oxide: a probabilistic characterization of possible regulatory thresholds. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2001; 21:697-717. [PMID: 11726021 DOI: 10.1111/0272-4332.214144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Ethylene oxide is a gas produced in large quantities in the United States that is used primarily as a chemical intermediate in the production of ethylene glycol, propylene glycol, non-ionic surfactants, ethanolamines, glycol ethers, and other chemicals. It has been well established that ethylene oxide can induce cancer, genetic, reproductive and developmental, and acute health effects in animals. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently developing both a cancer potency factor and a reference concentration (RfC) for ethylene oxide. This study used the rich database on the reproductive and developmental effects of ethylene oxide to develop a probabilistic characterization of possible regulatory thresholds for ethylene oxide. This analysis was based on the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, but involved several innovative elements, such as: (1) the use of advanced statistical methods to account for correlations in developmental outcomes among littermates and allow for simultaneous control of covariates (such as litter size); (2) the application of a probabilistic approach for characterizing the uncertainty in extrapolating the animal results to humans; and (3) the use of a quantitative approach to account for the variation in heterogeneity among the human population. This article presents several classes of results, including: (1) probabilistic characterizations of ED10s for two quantal reproductive outcomes-resorption and fetal death, (2) probabilistic characterizations of one developmental outcome-the dose expected to yield a 5% reduction in fetal (or pup) weight, (3) estimates of the RfCs that would result from using these values in the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, and (4) a probabilistic characterization of the level of ethylene oxide exposure that would be expected to yield a 1/1,000 increase in the risk of reproductive or developmental outcomes in exposed human populations.
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Brand KP, Catalano PJ, Hammitt JK, Rhomberg L, Evans JS. Limitations to empirical extrapolation studies: the case of BMD ratios. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2001; 21:625-640. [PMID: 11726017 DOI: 10.1111/0272-4332.214140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Extrapolation relationships are of keen interest to chemical risk assessment in which they play a prominent role in translating experimentally derived (usually in animals) toxicity estimates into estimates more relevant to human populations. A standard approach for characterizing each extrapolation relies on ratios of pre-existing toxicity estimates. Applications of this "ratio approach" have overlooked several sources of error. This article examines the case of ratios of benchmark doses, trying to better understand their informativeness. The approach involves mathematically modeling the process by which the ratios are generated in practice. Both closed form and simulation-based models of this "data-generating process" (DGP) are developed, paying special attention to the influence of experimental design. The results show the potential for significant limits to informativeness, and revealing dependencies. Future applications of the ratio approach should take imprecision and bias into account. Bootstrap techniques are recommended for gauging imprecision, but more complicated techniques will be required for gauging bias (and capturing dependencies). Strategies for mitigating the errors are suggested.
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Evans JS, Handley SJ, Harper CN. Necessity, possibility and belief: a study of syllogistic reasoning. THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY. A, HUMAN EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY 2001; 54:935-58. [PMID: 11548042 DOI: 10.1080/713755983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
Abstract
The present study extended the investigation of the belief bias effect in syllogistic reasoning in two ways: (1) The effect was studied under instructions to decide whether conclusions were possible, as well as necessary, given the premises; and (2) the effect was studied for types of syllogism where people rarely endorse the conclusions as well as those (valid and fallacious) where endorsements are common. Three experiments are reported, which show first that there is a marked tendency to reject unbelievable conclusions relative to abstract or neutral controls on all kinds of syllogism and under both types of instruction. There was also significant evidence of positive belief bias (increased acceptance of believable conclusions) and of interactions between belief bias effects and logical form. The results are discussed with particular respect to accounts of belief bias offered by theorists in the mental-model tradition.
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