Observation of Seven Astrophysical Tau Neutrino Candidates with IceCube

We report on a measurement of astrophysical tau neutrinos with 9.7 yr of IceCube data. Using convolutional neural networks trained on images derived from simulated events, seven candidate ν_{τ} events were found with visible energies ranging from roughly 20 TeV to 1 PeV and a median expected parent ν_{τ} energy of about 200 TeV. Considering backgrounds from astrophysical and atmospheric neutrinos, and muons from π^{±}/K^{±} decays in atmospheric air showers, we obtain a total estimated background of about 0.5 events, dominated by non-ν_{τ} astrophysical neutrinos. Thus, we rule out the absence of astrophysical ν_{τ} at the 5σ level. The measured astrophysical ν_{τ} flux is consistent with expectations based on previously published IceCube astrophysical neutrino flux measurements and neutrino oscillations.

Facial dysmorphology in children exposed in pregnancy to anticonvulsant medications correlates with deficits in IQ

Some children exposed at conception to the antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) phenytoin (PHT), phenobarbital (PB), and carbamazepine (CBZ) have changes in their midface and fingers. It has been suggested that the anticonvulsant-exposed child with these subtle changes in facial features (the "anticonvulsant face") has a greater likelihood of having deficits in IQ in comparison with children exposed to the same anticonvulsants who do not have these features. 115 AED-exposed children (40, PHT; 34, PB; and 41, CBZ) between 6.5 and 16 years of age and 111 unexposed children matched by sex, race, and year in school were evaluated. The evaluations were (WISC-III), physical examination with measurements of facial features and digits and photographs. The AED-exposed children had cephalometric radiographs, but not the unexposed. Each parent had a similar examination of face and hands plus tests of intelligence. These AED-exposed children showed an increased frequency of a short nose and anteverted nares, features of the "anticonvulsant face." Lateral skull radiographs showed a decrease in the angle between the anterior cranial base and nasal bone, which produces anteverted nares. Mean IQs were significantly lower on one or more IQ measures for the children with these facial features. Shortening of the distal phalanges and small fingernails correlated with the presence of a short nose in that child. The findings in 115 children exposed at conception to either phenytoin, phenobarbital, or carbamazepine, as monotherapy, confirmed the hypothesis that those with a short nose and anteverted nares had a lower IQ than exposed children without those features.

Achievement of Target Gain Larger than Unity in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

On December 5, 2022, an indirect drive fusion implosion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved a target gain G_{target} of 1.5. This is the first laboratory demonstration of exceeding "scientific breakeven" (or G_{target}>1) where 2.05 MJ of 351 nm laser light produced 3.1 MJ of total fusion yield, a result which significantly exceeds the Lawson criterion for fusion ignition as reported in a previous NIF implosion [H. Abu-Shawareb et al. (Indirect Drive ICF Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.129.075001]. This achievement is the culmination of more than five decades of research and gives proof that laboratory fusion, based on fundamental physics principles, is possible. This Letter reports on the target, laser, design, and experimental advancements that led to this result.

Midregional proatrial naturetic peptide (MRproANP) and copeptin (COPAVP) as predictors of all-cause mortality in recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD-results from COSYCONET

BACKGROUND

MRproANP and COPAVP are prognostic markers for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Furthermore, these biomarkers predict mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, which are important prognostically determining comorbidities in patients with COPD. However, less is known about these biomarkers in recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD. Therefore, we analyzed these biomarkers as potential predictors of mortality in recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD.

METHODS

The blood biomarkers considered were copeptin (COPAVP), midregional adrenomedullin (MRproADM), midregional proatrial naturetic peptide (MRproANP), and fibrinogen. Analyses were performed in patients with stable "recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD" defined by GOLD grades 0-2 and diagnosis of COPD ≤ 5 years prior to inclusion into the COSYCONET cohort (COPD and Systemic Consequences-Comorbidities Network), using Cox regression analysis with stepwise adjustment for multiple COPD characteristics, comorbidities, troponin and NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

655 patients with recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD were included. In the initial regression model, 43 of 655 patients died during the 6-year follow-up, in the final model 27 of 487. Regression analyses with adjustment for confounders identified COPAVP and MRproANP as statistically robust biomarkers (p < 0.05 each) of all-cause mortality, while MRproADM and fibrinogen were not. The fourth quartile of MRproANP (97 pmol/L) was associated with a hazard ratio of 4.5 (95%CI: 1.6; 12.8), and the fourth quartile of COPAVP (9.2 pmol/L) with 3.0 (1.1; 8.0). The results for MRproANP were confirmed in the total cohort of grade 0-4 (n = 1470 finally).

CONCLUSION

In patients with recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD, elevated values of COPVP and in particular MRproANP were robust, independent biomarkers for all-cause mortality risk after adjustment for multiple other factors. This suggests that these markers might be considered in the risk assessment of early COPD.

Extra-mandibular Osteoradionecrosis after the Treatment of Head and Neck Cancer

AIMS

Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) is a serious toxicity of head and neck radiotherapy. It predominantly affects the mandible. Extra-mandibular ORN is rare. The aim of this study was to report the incidence and outcomes of extra-mandibular ORNs from a large institutional database.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 2303 head and neck cancer patients were treated with radical or adjuvant radiotherapy. Of these, extra-mandibular ORN developed in 13 patients (0.5%).

RESULTS

Maxillary ORNs (n = 8) were a consequence of the treatment of various primaries (oropharynx = 3, sinonasal = 2, maxilla = 2, parotid = 1). The median interval from the end of radiotherapy to the development of ORN was 7.5 months (range 3-42 months). The median radiotherapy dose in the centre of the ORN was 48.5 Gy (range 22-66.5 Gy). Four patients (50%) healed in 7, 14, 20 and 41 months. All temporal bone ORNs (n = 5) developed after treatment to the parotid gland (of a total of 115 patients who received radiotherapy for parotid gland malignancy). The median interval from the end of radiotherapy to the development of ORN was 41 months (range 20-68 months). The median total dose in the centre of the ORN was 63.5 Gy (range 60.2-65.3 Gy). ORN healed in only one patient after 32 months of treatment with repeated debridement and topical betamethasone cream.

CONCLUSION

Extra-mandibular ORN is a rare late toxicity and this current study provides useful information on its incidence and outcome. The risk of temporal bone ORN should be considered in the treatment of parotid malignancies and patients should be counselled. More research is required to determine the optimal management of extra-mandibular ORN, particularly on the role of the PENTOCLO regimen.

Observation of high-energy neutrinos from the Galactic plane

The origin of high-energy cosmic rays, atomic nuclei that continuously impact Earth's atmosphere, is unknown. Because of deflection by interstellar magnetic fields, cosmic rays produced within the Milky Way arrive at Earth from random directions. However, cosmic rays interact with matter near their sources and during propagation, which produces high-energy neutrinos. We searched for neutrino emission using machine learning techniques applied to 10 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By comparing diffuse emission models to a background-only hypothesis, we identified neutrino emission from the Galactic plane at the 4.5σ level of significance. The signal is consistent with diffuse emission of neutrinos from the Milky Way but could also arise from a population of unresolved point sources.

Expert consensus on neurodevelopmental outcomes in pregnancy pharmacovigilance studies

Background: Exposure in utero to certain medications can disrupt processes of fetal development, including brain development, leading to a continuum of neurodevelopmental difficulties. Recognizing the deficiency of neurodevelopmental investigations within pregnancy pharmacovigilance, an international Neurodevelopmental Expert Working Group was convened to achieve consensus regarding the core neurodevelopmental outcomes, optimization of methodological approaches and barriers to conducting pregnancy pharmacovigilance studies with neurodevelopmental outcomes. Methods: A modified Delphi study was undertaken based on stakeholder and expert input. Stakeholders (patient, pharmaceutical, academic and regulatory) were invited to define topics, pertaining to neurodevelopmental investigations in medication-exposed pregnancies. Experts were identified for their experience regarding neurodevelopmental outcomes following medicinal, substances of misuse or environmental exposures in utero. Two questionnaire rounds and a virtual discussion meeting were used to explore expert opinion on the topics identified by the stakeholders. Results: Twenty-five experts, from 13 countries and professionally diverse backgrounds took part in the development of 11 recommendations. The recommendations focus on the importance of neurodevelopment as a core feature of pregnancy pharmacovigilance, the timing of study initiation and a core set of distinct but interrelated neurodevelopmental skills or diagnoses which require investigation. Studies should start in infancy with an extended period of investigation into adolescence, with more frequent sampling during rapid periods of development. Additionally, recommendations are made regarding optimal approach to neurodevelopmental outcome measurement, comparator groups, exposure factors, a core set of confounding and mediating variables, attrition, reporting of results and the required improvements in funding for potential later emerging effects. Different study designs will be required depending on the specific neurodevelopmental outcome type under investigation and whether the medicine in question is newly approved or already in widespread use. Conclusion: An improved focus on neurodevelopmental outcomes is required within pregnancy pharmacovigilance. These expert recommendations should be met across a complementary set of studies which converge to form a comprehensive set of evidence regarding neurodevelopmental outcomes in pregnancy pharmacovigilance.

Exploring views of members of the public and policymakers on the acceptability of population level dietary and active-travel policies: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on what shapes the acceptability of population level dietary and active-travel policies in England. This information would be useful in the decision-making process about which policies should be implemented and how to increase their effectiveness and sustainability. To fill this gap, we explored public and policymakers' views about factors that influence public acceptability of dietary and active-travel policies and how to increase public acceptability for these policies.

METHODS

We conducted online, semi-structured interviews with 20 members of the public and 20 policymakers in England. A purposive sampling frame was used to recruit members of the public via a recruitment agency, based on age, sex, socioeconomic status and ethnicity. Policymakers were recruited from existing contacts within our research collaborations and via snowball sampling. We explored different dietary and active-travel policies that varied in their scope and focus. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic reflexive analysis with both inductive and deductive coding.

RESULTS

We identified four themes that informed public acceptability of dietary and active-travel policies: (1) perceived policy effectiveness, i.e., policies that included believable mechanisms of action, addressed valued co-benefits and barriers to engage in the behaviour; (2) perceived policy fairness, i.e., policies that provided everyone with an opportunity to benefit (mentioned only by the public), equally considered the needs of various population subgroups and rewarded 'healthy' behaviours rather than only penalising 'unhealthy' behaviours; (3) communication of policies, i.e., policies that were visible and had consistent and positive messages from the media (mentioned only by policymakers) and (4) how to improve policy support, with the main suggestion being an integrated strategy addressing multiple aspects of these behaviours, inclusive policies that consider everyone's needs and use of appropriate channels and messages in policy communication.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight that members' of the public and policymakers' support for dietary and active-travel policies can be shaped by the perceived effectiveness, fairness and communication of policies and provide suggestions on how to improve policy support. This information can inform the design of acceptable policies but can also be used to help communicate existing and future policies to maximise their adoption and sustainability.

The effect of polyphenols in post stroke adults: A systematic review of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

After a stroke, survivors are often left with significant disabilities and are at a greater risk of recurrent strokes. It is vital stroke survivors receive effective treatments to assist with rehabilitation and reduce risk factors for secondary stroke. Observational and preclinical studies have highlighted the promising role of polyphenols in these regards.

METHODS

A systematic review of original research which assessed the role of polyphenols on health outcomes in post stroke adults was conducted. PROQUEST, SCOPUS (Elsevier), MEDLINE (EBSCO), Embase and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to the 29th of October 2021.

RESULTS

A total of 9 studies met the full inclusion criteria and were included in this review. Several classes of polyphenols were assessed including hydroxybenzoic acids, stilbenes and flavonoids. Numerous health outcomes were assessed including vascular function, stroke disability, blood pressure, blood glucose and c-reactive protein. The majority of the studies included in this review (n = 8) note improvements in the polyphenol groups for at least one outcome measure. However, small sample sizes, short trial length and reporting bias prevent firm conclusions from being drawn.

CONCLUSION

This review provides promising preliminary evidence that polyphenols may be beneficial for post stroke adults, however, more research is required. To ensure reliable methodology and replication of results, future studies should include outcome statistics and effect sizes. Trials with a longer duration and large sample size should also be considered.

Direct observation of electric field-induced magnetism in a molecular magnet

We report the direct observation of an electrically-induced magnetic susceptibility in the molecular nano- magnet [Fe₃O(O₂CPh)₆(py)₃]ClO₄·py, an Fe₃ trimer. This magnetoelectric effect results from the breaking of spatial inversion symmetry due to the spin configurations of the antiferromagnetic trimer. Both static and very low frequency electric fields were used. Fractional changes of the magnetic susceptibility of 11 ppb[Formula: see text] per kVm^-1 for the temperature range 8.5 < T < 13.5 K were observed for applied electric fields up to 62 kV m^-1. The changes in susceptibility were measured using a tunnel diode oscillator operating at liquid helium temperatures while the sample is held at a higher regulated temperature.

A, Barbano A, Barwick SW, Bastian B, Basu V, Baur S, Bay R, Beatty JJ, Becker KH, Becker Tjus J, Bellenghi C, BenZvi S, Berley D, Bernardini E, Besson DZ, Binder G, Bindig D, Blaufuss E, Blot S, Boddenberg M, Bontempo F, Borowka J, Böser S, Botner O, Böttcher J, Bourbeau E, Bradascio F, Braun J, Brinson B, Bron S, Brostean-Kaiser J, Browne S, Burgman A, Burley RT, Busse RS, Campana MA, Carnie-Bronca EG, Chen C, Chen Z, Chirkin D, Choi K, Clark BA, Clark K, Classen L, Coleman A, Collin GH, Conrad JM, Coppin P, Correa P, Cowen DF, Cross R, Dappen C, Dave P, De Clercq C, DeLaunay JJ, Delgado López D, Dembinski H, Deoskar K, Desai A, Desiati P, de Vries KD, de Wasseige G, de With M, DeYoung T, Diaz A, Díaz-Vélez JC, Dittmer M, Dujmovic H, Dunkman M, DuVernois MA, Dvorak E, Ehrhardt T, Eller P, Engel R, Erpenbeck H, Evans J, Evenson PA, Fan KL, Fazely AR, Fedynitch A, Feigl N, Fiedlschuster S, Fienberg AT, Filimonov K, Finley C, Fischer L, Fox D, Franckowiak A, Friedman E, Fritz A, Fürst P, Gaisser TK, Gallagher J, Ganster E, Garcia A, Garrappa S, Gerhardt L, Ghadimi A, Glaser C, Glauch T, Glüsenkamp T, Goldschmidt A, Gonzalez JG, Goswami S, Grant D, Grégoire T, Griswold S, Günther C, Gutjahr P, Haack C, Hallgren A, Halliday R, Halve L, Halzen F, Ha Minh M, Hanson K, Hardin J, Harnisch AA, Haungs A, Hebecker D, Helbing K, Henningsen F, Hettinger EC, Hickford S, Hignight J, Hill C, Hill GC, Hoffman KD, Hoffmann R, Hokanson-Fasig B, Hoshina K, Huang F, Huber M, Huber T, Hultqvist K, Hünnefeld M, Hussain R, Hymon K, In S, Iovine N, Ishihara A, Jansson M, Japaridze GS, Jeong M, Jin M, Jones BJP, Kang D, Kang W, Kang X, Kappes A, Kappesser D, Kardum L, Karg T, Karl M, Karle A, Katz U, Kauer M, Kellermann M, Kelley JL, Kheirandish A, Kin K, Kintscher T, Kiryluk J, Klein SR, Koirala R, Kolanoski H, Kontrimas T, Köpke L, Kopper C, Kopper S, Koskinen DJ, Koundal P, Kovacevich M, Kowalski M, Kozynets T, Kun E, Kurahashi N, Lad N, Lagunas Gualda C, Lanfranchi JL, Larson MJ, Lauber F, Lazar JP, Lee JW, Leonard K, Leszczyńska A, Li Y, Lincetto M, Liu QR, Liubarska M, Lohfink E, Lozano Mariscal CJ, Lu L, Lucarelli F, Ludwig A, Luszczak W, Lyu Y, Ma WY, Madsen J, Mahn KBM, Makino Y, Mancina S, Mariş IC, Martinez-Soler I, Maruyama R, Mase K, McElroy T, McNally F, Mead JV, Meagher K, Mechbal S, Medina A, Meier M, Meighen-Berger S, Micallef J, Mockler D, Montaruli T, Moore RW, Morse R, Moulai M, Naab R, Nagai R, Nahnhauer R, Naumann U, Necker J, Nguyen LV, Niederhausen H, Nisa MU, Nowicki SC, Nygren D, Obertacke Pollmann A, Oehler M, Oeyen B, Olivas A, O’Sullivan E, Pandya H, Pankova DV, Park N, Parker GK, Paudel EN, Paul L, Pérez de los Heros C, Peters L, Peterson J, Philippen S, Pieper S, Pittermann M, Pizzuto A, Plum M, Popovych Y, Porcelli A, Prado Rodriguez M, Price PB, Pries B, Przybylski GT, Raab C, Rack-Helleis J, Raissi A, Rameez M, Rawlins K, Rea IC, Rehman A, Reichherzer P, Reimann R, Renzi G, Resconi E, Reusch S, Rhode W, Richman M, Riedel B, Roberts EJ, Robertson S, Roellinghoff G, Rongen M, Rott C, Ruhe T, Ryckbosch D, Rysewyk Cantu D, Safa I, Saffer J, Sanchez Herrera SE, Sandrock A, Sandroos J, Santander M, Sarkar S, Sarkar S, Satalecka K, Schaufel M, Schieler H, Schindler S, Schmidt T, Schneider A, Schneider J, Schröder FG, Schumacher L, Schwefer G, Sclafani S, Seckel D, Seunarine S, Sharma A, Shefali S, Silva M, Skrzypek B, Smithers B, Snihur R, Soedingrekso J, Soldin D, Spannfellner C, Spiczak GM, Spiering C, Stachurska J, Stamatikos M, Stanev T, Stein R, Stettner J, Steuer A, Stezelberger T, Stokstad R, Stürwald T, Stuttard T, Sullivan GW, Taboada I, Ter-Antonyan S, Tilav S, Tischbein F, Tollefson K, Tönnis C, Toscano S, Tosi D, Trettin A, Tselengidou M, Tung CF, Turcati A, Turcotte R, Turley CF, Twagirayezu JP, Ty B, Unland Elorrieta MA, Valtonen-Mattila N, Vandenbroucke J, van Eijndhoven N, Vannerom D, van Santen J, Verpoest S, Walck C, Watson TB, Weaver C, Weigel P, Weindl A, Weiss MJ, Weldert J, Wendt C, Werthebach J, Weyrauch M, Whitehorn N, Wiebusch CH, Williams DR, Wolf M, Woschnagg K, Wrede G, Wulff J, Xu XW, Yanez JP, Yoshida S, Yu S, Yuan T, Zhang Z, Zhelnin P. Evidence for neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068

A supermassive black hole, obscured by cosmic dust, powers the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068. Neutrinos, which rarely interact with matter, could provide information on the galaxy’s active core. We searched for neutrino emission from astrophysical objects using data recorded with the IceCube neutrino detector between 2011 and 2020. The positions of 110 known gamma-ray sources were individually searched for neutrino detections above atmospheric and cosmic backgrounds. We found that NGC 1068 has an excess of 79 − 20 + 22 neutrinos at tera–electron volt energies, with a global significance of 4.2σ, which we interpret as associated with the active galaxy. The flux of high-energy neutrinos that we measured from NGC 1068 is more than an order of magnitude higher than the upper limit on emissions of tera–electron volt gamma rays from this source.

High throughput screen of small molecules as potential countermeasures to galactic cosmic radiation induced cellular dysfunction

Space travel increases galactic cosmic ray exposure to flight crews and this is significantly elevated once travel moves beyond low Earth orbit. This includes combinations of high energy protons and heavy ions such as ⁵⁶Fe or ¹⁶O. There are distinct differences in the biological response to low-energy transfer (x-rays) or high-energy transfer (High-LET). However, given the relatively low fluence rate of exposure during flight operations, it might be possible to manage these deleterious effects using small molecules currently available. Virtually all reports to date examining small molecule management of radiation exposure are based on low-LET challenges. To that end an FDA approved drug library (725 drugs) was used to perform a high throughput screen of cultured cells following exposure to galactic cosmic radiation. The H9c2 myoblasts, ES-D3 pluripotent cells, and Hy926 endothelial cell lines were exposed to a single exposure (75 cGy) using the 5-ion GCRsim protocol developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Following GCR exposure cells were maintained for up to two weeks. For each drug (@10µM), a hierarchical cumulative score was developed incorporating measures of mitochondrial and cellular function, oxidant stress and cell senescence. The top 160 scores were retested following a similar protocol using 1µM of each drug. Within the 160 drugs, 33 are considered to have an anti-inflammatory capacity, while others also indirectly suppressed pro-inflammatory pathways or had noted antioxidant capacity. Lead candidates came from different drug classes that included angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or AT1 antagonists, COX2 inhibitors, as well as drugs mediated by histamine receptors. Surprisingly, different classes of anti-diabetic medications were observed to be useful including sulfonylureas and metformin. Using a hierarchical decision structure, we have identified several lead candidates. That no one drug or even drug class was completely successful across all parameters tested suggests the complexity of managing the consequences of galactic cosmic radiation exposure.

Search for Unstable Sterile Neutrinos with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

We present a search for an unstable sterile neutrino by looking for a resonant signal in eight years of atmospheric ν_{μ} data collected from 2011 to 2019 at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. Both the (stable) three-neutrino and the 3+1 sterile neutrino models are disfavored relative to the unstable sterile neutrino model, though with p values of 2.8% and 0.81%, respectively, we do not observe evidence for 3+1 neutrinos with neutrino decay. The best-fit parameters for the sterile neutrino with decay model from this study are Δm_{41}^{2}=6.7_{-2.5}^{+3.9}  eV^{2}, sin^{2}2θ_{24}=0.33_{-0.17}^{+0.20}, and g^{2}=2.5π±1.5π, where g is the decay-mediating coupling. The preferred regions of the 3+1+decay model from short-baseline oscillation searches are excluded at 90% C.L.

Making integration foundational in population health intervention research: why we need 'Work Package Zero'

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to identify when and how integration should take place within evaluations of complex population health interventions (PHIs).

STUDY DESIGN

Descriptive analytical approach.

METHODS

We draw on conceptual insights that emerged through (1) a working group on integration and (2) a diverse range of literature on case studies, small-n evaluations and mixed methods evaluation studies.

RESULTS

We initially sought techniques to integrate analyses at the end of a complex PHI evaluation. However, this conceptualization of integration proved limiting. Instead, we found value in conceptualizing integration as a process that commences at the beginning of an evaluation and continues throughout. Many methods can be used for this type of integration, including process tracing, realist evaluation, congruence analysis, general elimination methodology/modus operandi, pattern matching and contribution analysis. Clearly signposting when integrative methods should commence within an evaluation should be of value to the PHI evaluation community, as well as to funders and related stakeholders.

CONCLUSIONS

Rather than being a tool used at the end of an evaluation, we propose that integration is more usefully conceived as a process that commences at the start of an evaluation and continues throughout. To emphasize the importance of this timing, integration can be described as comprising 'Work Package Zero' within evaluations of complex PHIs.

Lawson Criterion for Ignition Exceeded in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion.

Strong Constraints on Neutrino Nonstandard Interactions from TeV-Scale ν_{μ} Disappearance at IceCube

We report a search for nonstandard neutrino interactions (NSI) using eight years of TeV-scale atmospheric muon neutrino data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By reconstructing incident energies and zenith angles for atmospheric neutrino events, this analysis presents unified confidence intervals for the NSI parameter ε_{μτ}. The best-fit value is consistent with no NSI at a p value of 25.2%. With a 90% confidence interval of -0.0041≤ε_{μτ}≤0.0031 along the real axis and similar strength in the complex plane, this result is the strongest constraint on any NSI parameter from any oscillation channel to date.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Social support and prenatal mental health problems: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Pregnancy is a time of profound physical and emotional change as well as an increased risk of mental health problems. Providing social support is vital to reduce such risk.

Objectives

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at examining the relationship between social support and depression, anxiety and self-harm during pregnancy.

Methods

We searched observational studies from PubMed, Psych Info, MIDIRS, SCOPUS, and CINAHL databases. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale tool was used for quality appraisal. The Q and the I² statistics were used to evaluate heterogeneity. A random-effects model was used to pool estimates. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger’s regression test and adjusted using trim and Fill analysis. All the analysis was conducted using STATA.

Results

Sixty-seven studies with 64,449 pregnant women were part of the current review. Of the total 67 studies, 22 and 45 studies were included in the narrative analysis and meta-analysis, respectively. From the studies included in the narrative analysis, 20(91%) of them reported a significant association between social support and the risk of mental health problems (i.e. depression, anxiety, and self-harm). After adjusting for publication bias, the results of the random-effect model revealed low social support was significantly associated with antenatal depression (AOR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.41) and antenatal anxiety (AOR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.34, 2.92).

Conclusions

Low social support was significantly associated with depression, anxiety, and self-harm during pregnancy. Policy-makers and those working on maternity care should consider the development of targeted social support programs to help reduce mental health problems amongst pregnant women.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

The association between social support and antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms among Australian women

Introduction

Antenatal depression and antenatal anxiety adversely affect several obstetric and foetal outcomes, and increase the rate of postnatal mental illness. Thus, to tackle these challenges the need for social support during pregnancy is vital.

Objectives

This study examined the association between domains of social support and antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms among Australian women.

Methods

Our study used data obtained from the 1973–78 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH), focusing upon women who reported being pregnant (n=493). Depression and anxiety were assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D-10) scale, and the 9-item Goldberg Anxiety and Depression scale (GADS) respectively. The 19 item-Medical Outcomes Study Social Support index (MOSS) was used to assess social support. A binary logistic regression model was used to examine the associations between domains of social support and antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms.

Results

After adjusting for potential confounders, our study found that the odds of antenatal depressive symptoms was about four and threefold higher among pregnant women who reported low emotional/informational support (AOR=4.75; 95% CI: 1.45, 15.66; p=0.010) and low social support (overall support) (AOR: 3.26, 95%CI: 1.05, 10.10, p=0.040) respectively compared with their counterpart. In addition, the odds of antenatal anxiety symptoms was seven times higher among pregnant women who reported low affectionate support/positive social interaction (AOR=7.43; 95%CI: 1.75, 31.55; p=0.006).

Conclusions

Low emotional support and low affectionate support have a significant association with antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms respectively. As such, targeted screening of expectant women for social support is essential.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Predicted Global Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant of Concern via Air Travel

Purpose

To predict the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant of Concern (VoC) from England via air travel and compare against observed importation.

Methods & Materials

Risk models were used to estimate a country's likelihood of importing at least one traveller infected with the Alpha VoC from England by January 19, 2021.

First, the prior 60-day incidence of Alpha VoC associated with each English airport was estimated using cumulative Alpha VoC cases reported by Public Health England between September 20, 2020 – January 4, 2021 proportionately allocated to each airport. Each airport's catchment population was derived from a probabilistic Huff model. Next, the prevalence of the Alpha VoC for each airport was derived from the estimated incidence to represent the probability that at least one departing traveller was infected with the Alpha VoC for each English airport. The prevalence and forecasted flight volumes were used to estimate the likelihood of each destination airport receiving at least one infected traveller from England. Forecasted flight volumes were based on historical passenger volumes data from the International Air Transport Association and prospective flight schedules from CIRIUM. All airport-level likelihoods were aggregated to the country-level.

Each country's predicted likelihood was compared against observed cases of Alpha VoC by January 25, 2021, collected by cov-lineages.org and a manual search of online sources.

Results

Among 211 countries, the median likelihood was 1.6% (interquartile range: 17.5%) and the mean was 13.9% (SD: 23.5%). In total, 28.9% (n=55) of countries had observed importation of the Alpha VoC by January 25^th. Fifteen of 16 countries with a predicted likelihood of importation greater than 50% had reported at least one case (kappa = 0.88), while 31 of 39 countries with a predicted likelihood lower than 1% did not detect a case (kappa = 0.92).

Conclusion

Risk models based on air travel to inform public health preparedness accurately identified most potential destinations at highest risk of importing the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha VoC.

Search for Relativistic Magnetic Monopoles with Eight Years of IceCube Data

We present an all-sky 90% confidence level upper limit on the cosmic flux of relativistic magnetic monopoles using 2886 days of IceCube data. The analysis was optimized for monopole speeds between 0.750c and 0.995c, without any explicit restriction on the monopole mass. We constrain the flux of relativistic cosmic magnetic monopoles to a level below 2.0×10^{-19}  cm^{-2} s^{-1} sr^{-1} over the majority of the targeted speed range. This result constitutes the most strict upper limit to date for magnetic monopoles with β≳0.8 and up to β∼0.995 and fills the gap between existing limits on the cosmic flux of nonrelativistic and ultrarelativistic magnetic monopoles.

Neuropsychological effects in children exposed to anticonvulsant monotherapy during gestation: Phenobarbital, carbamazepine, and phenytoin

OBJECTIVE

Usage during pregnancy of the antiseizure medication (ASM), phenobarbital (PB), carbamazepine (CBZ), and phenytoin (PHT), has been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. While morphological effects on offspring are well-documented, inconsistent findings have been reported on neuropsychological development, possibly due to differences in attention to maternal demographics, and other design characteristics. Herein, we report the results of a carefully designed protocol used to examine the effects of gestational monotherapy with PB, CBZ, or PHT upon children's general mental abilities, when compared to age- and gender- matched children born to unexposed women of similar age, education, and socioeconomic status.

METHODS

For each ASM, we selected qualifying cases from children born to PB, CBZ, or PHT monotherapy-exposed and unexposed women. Following the application of inclusion, exclusion, and matching criteria, our sample included 34 PB-exposed, 40 PHT-exposed, and 41 CBZ-exposed children along with matched unexposed children for each drug group. Criteria were applied through examination of maternal medical and educational histories, parental socioeconomic characteristics, and child's age and gender. Each child's physical and neuropsychological characteristics were examined, using standardized protocols. We report on the cognitive performance of the children as assessed by the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children - III (WISC-III), the leading measure of mental ability in the U.S.

RESULTS

An overall mixed model ANOVA of the adjusted performance of the children across all groups controlling for maternal IQ revealed significant effects on verbal IQ, but not full-scale IQ or performance IQ. In the individual drug and unexposed group comparisons, only reduced verbal and full-scale IQ scores in PB-exposed versus matched unexposed children were found. Comparisons between drug groups revealed a significant reduction in verbal IQ and full-scale IQ in PB-exposed versus PHT-exposed children, but not in other drug-drug comparisons.

SIGNIFICANCE

These results demonstrate effects on children's mental ability due to prenatal PB exposure, such that analyses adjusted for maternal IQ scores, revealed reduced verbal mental abilities and reduced full-scale IQ scores when scores in exposed children were compared to scores from children of the same age and sex born to demographically similar, healthy unexposed women. When comparisons were made between drug groups, children exposed prenatally to PB performed significantly worse than prenatally PHT-exposed children, but CBZ-exposed children's scores were not significantly different from those of PB or PHT-exposed groups. In light of shared effects on structural teratogenicity, these findings suggest that use of PB monotherapy for the management of seizures during pregnancy may be associated with increased risk in comparison to PHT when neurobehavioral functioning is considered, and that only PB-exposed children have reduced performance compared to matched controls. Attention to these effects is critical in the developing world where use of these older medications remains predominant, and prudent choices can be made to reduce impact on cognitive development.