Evaluation of Fast-Food Restaurant Kids' Meal Beverage Offerings 1 Year After a State-Level Healthy Beverage Default Policy

Introduction

Ordering from kids' menus and children's restaurant consumption is associated with greater purchasing and intake, respectively, of sugar-sweetened beverages. In response, policymakers have enacted strategies to improve the healthfulness of kids' meal offerings. This study investigated restaurant kids' meal beverage offerings and compliance with an Illinois healthy beverage default act, effective from January 1, 2022.

Methods

Using a pre-post intervention (Illinois)-comparison (Wisconsin) site research design, fast-food restaurant audit data were collected before and 1 year after the Illinois Healthy Beverage Default Act from 6 platforms: restaurant interior and drive-thru menu boards and websites/applications and 3 third-party ordering platforms (DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub). Analyses included 62-110 restaurants across platforms. Difference-in-differences-weighted logistic regression models with robust SEs, clustered on restaurants, were estimated to assess pre to 1-year postpolicy changes in overall compliance for each audit setting in Illinois relative to that in Wisconsin.

Results

This study found no statistically significant (p<0.05) changes in the compliance of kids' meal beverage default offerings associated with the enactment of the Illinois Healthy Beverage Default Act in Illinois relative to that in Wisconsin at fast-food restaurants. There were some observed differences in results in the restaurants' physical locations versus online that are worth noting. That is, after the enactment of the Illinois Healthy Beverage Default Act, the results showed greater odds of fast-food restaurants exclusively offering healthy beverage defaults with kids' meals on restaurant interior (OR=1.83, 95% CI=0.93, 3.58) and drive-thru (OR=2.38, 95% CI=0.95, 5.96) menus, with weak statistical significance (p<0.10). However, the policy was not associated with either meaningful or statistically significant changes in healthy beverage default offerings on restaurant websites or third-party online ordering platforms.

Conclusions

This study found limited evidence of changes in kids' meal beverage offerings attributable to the Illinois Healthy Beverage Default Act. Future investigations of communication channels that support awareness and implementation and the resources required for implementation and enforcement may provide insight that is key to improving compliance.

Analysis of social media compliance with cannabis advertising regulations: evidence from recreational dispensaries in Illinois 1-year post-legalization

BACKGROUND

In the USA, an increasing number of states have legalized commercial recreational cannabis markets, allowing a private industry to sell cannabis to those 21 and older at retail locations known as dispensaries. Research on tobacco and alcohol suggests this new industry will use aggressive marketing tactics to attract new users and promote greater intensity of use. Of concern is that cannabis company advertising campaigns may be appealing to youth, promote false or misleading health claims, and disproportionately target low-income and minority communities. In this study, we evaluated recreational cannabis dispensary compliance with advertising regulations on social media in the state of Illinois.

METHODS

Primary data were collected from a census of recreational dispensary Facebook and Twitter business pages during the first year of recreational sales in 2020. A quantitative content analysis was conducted to systematically analyze the data; a codebook that detailed a protocol for classifying posts was developed prior to the analysis using advertising regulations outlined in the Illinois Cannabis Regulation and Tax Act. Violations of advertising regulations were organized into three categories: advertisements that may be appealing to youth (< 21 years old), advertisements that make health claims, and other advertising violations. The data were analyzed cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Additionally, differences in compliance were assessed by dispensary and neighborhood characteristics.

RESULTS

The results of the analysis revealed substantial and persistent non-compliance throughout the entire study period. Overall, nearly one third of posts had at least one violation and approximately one in ten posts met the criteria for appealing to youth or contained health claims. The majority of posts with health claims included health claims that were not qualifying conditions for medical cannabis access in the state of Illinois. No differences in compliance by neighborhood and dispensary characteristics were found.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this study suggest that systematic monitoring and enforcement is needed to ensure compliance with advertising regulations.

Neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics and healthfulness of store checkouts in Northern California

Placement of products at food store checkouts has been shown to trigger impulse purchases and child purchasing requests. Therefore, food companies pay substantial amounts of money to ensure their products are placed at checkout, and these products are mostly unhealthy (e.g., sugar-sweetened beverages [SSBs], candy, chips). To improve the healthfulness of store environments, Berkeley, CA, U.S. became the first jurisdiction globally to implement a healthy checkout policy. This study examined associations between store neighborhood characteristics and healthfulness of foods and beverages offered at checkout to understand the potential for healthy checkout policies, such as Berkeley's healthy checkout ordinance (HCO), to promote equitable food environments. Data on a near census of food and beverage facings (n = 26,758) at sampled checkouts were collected from 102 food stores (supermarkets, grocery stores, drugstores, dollar stores, specialty food stores, and mass merchandisers) across four Northern California cities (Berkeley, Oakland, Davis, and Sacramento) in February 2021. Bivariate regression analyses revealed that neighborhoods with lower socioeconomic status (SES) and higher Black and Hispanic residential composition had a higher prevalence of foods and beverages that did not meet HCO standards, including associations with a higher prevalence of sweets, higher prevalence of SSBs, and/or lower prevalence of healthy foods at checkout. Findings suggest that the checkout environment may be one of many contributors to diet-related health disparities. Additionally, healthy checkout policies may have the potential to increase nutrition equity by improving food environments across neighborhoods and especially in areas with lower SES and higher Black and Hispanic composition.

The impact of the Oakland sugar-sweetened beverage tax on price promotions of sugar-sweetened and alternative beverages

The goal of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes is to raise the prices of SSBs to decrease consumption. Price promotions play an important role in the sales of SSBs and could potentially be used by manufacturers to weaken the impact of such taxes. The purpose of this study is to determine how price promotions changed after the introduction of the 2017 Oakland SSB tax. A difference-in-differences study design was used to compare changes in prices and the prevalence and amount of price promotions for beverages in Oakland, California, relative to Sacramento, California, using two different datasets. Nielsen Retail Scanner data included price promotions for beverages sold and store audit data included price promotions offered by retailers. Changes were analyzed for SSBs, noncalorically sweetened beverages, and unsweetened beverages. After the implementation of the tax, the prevalence of price promotions for SSBs did not change significantly in Oakland relative to the comparison site of Sacramento. However, the depth of price promotions increased by an estimated 0.35 cents per ounce (P<0.001) based on the Nielsen retail scanner data and by 0.39 cents per ounce (P<0.001) based on the store audit data. This increase in the amount by which SSBs were price promoted following the introduction of the Oakland SSB tax may reflect a strategy by manufacturers to weaken the tax and/or retailers to bolster demand.

Food and Beverage Environments at Store Checkouts in California: Mostly Unhealthy Products

Background

As the only place in a store where customers must pass through, checkouts may be especially influential over purchases. Research is needed to understand the healthfulness of checkout environments.

Objectives

The objective of this study was to classify checkout product facings in California food stores.

Methods

In a cross-sectional study, 102 stores, including chains (dollar stores, drugstores, specialty food stores, supermarkets, and mass merchandisers) and independent supermarkets and grocery stores were sampled from 4 northern California cities. Observational assessments of each checkout product facing were conducted in February 2021 using the Store CheckOUt Tool. Facings were classified by category and healthfulness, defined by meeting Berkeley's Healthy Checkout Ordinance's healthy checkout standards: unsweetened beverages and specific foods containing ≤5 g added sugar and ≤200 mg sodium per serving. Log binomial regressions compared healthfulness by store and checkout characteristics.

Results

Of 26,758 food and beverage checkout facings, the most common categories were candy (31%), gum (18%), sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; 11%), salty snacks (9%), mints (7%), and sweets (6%). Water represented only 3% and fruits and vegetables 1% of these facings. Only 30% of food and beverage facings met Berkeley's healthy checkout standards, with 70% not meeting the standards. The percentage of food and beverage facings not meeting the standards was even higher (89%) among snack-sized packages (≤2 servings/package). Compared with chain supermarkets, mass merchandisers, and specialty food stores (34%-36%), dollar and independent grocery stores had a lower percentage of food and beverage facings that met the healthy checkout standards (18%-20%; P < 0.05). Compared with lane and register areas (35%), endcaps and snaking sections within checkouts had fewer food and beverage facings that met the standards (21%-23%; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Most foods and beverages at checkout consisted of candy, SSBs, salty snacks, and sweets and failed to meet the healthy checkout standards.Curr Dev Nutr 2023;xx:xx.

The impact of recreational cannabis markets on motor vehicle accident, suicide, and opioid overdose fatalities

In the U.S., an increasing number of states are legalizing regulated commercial markets for recreational cannabis, which allows private industry to produce, distribute, and sell marijuana to those 21 and older. The health impacts of these markets are not fully understood. Preliminary evidence suggests recreational markets may be associated with increased use among adults, which indicates there may be downstream health impacts on outcomes related to cannabis use. Three causes of death that are linked to cannabis use are motor vehicle accidents, suicide, and opioid overdose. Drawing on data from U.S. death certificates from 2009 to 2019, we conducted a difference-in-differences analysis to estimate the impact of recreational markets on fatalities from motor vehicle accidents, suicide, and opioid overdose in seven states: Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Nevada, California, and Massachusetts. States with comprehensive medical cannabis programs with similar pre-trends in deaths were used as comparisons. For each outcome, a pooled estimate was generated with a meta-analysis using random effects models. The results revealed substantial increases in crash fatalities in Colorado, Oregon, Alaska, and California of 16%, 22%, 20%, and 14%, respectively. Based on estimates from all seven states, recreational markets were associated with a 10% increase in motor vehicle accident deaths, on average. This study found no evidence that recreational markets impacted suicides. Most states saw a relative reduction in opioid overdose death that ranged between 3 and 28%. On average, recreational markets were associated with an 11% reduction in opioid overdose fatalities.

Outcomes Following Taxation of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

More than 45 countries and several local jurisdictions have implemented sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to improve nutrition and population health, and evidence on their outcomes to date is essential to inform policy discussions. Responding to this need, the World Health Organization commissioned a systematic literature review on the outcomes of fiscal policies, including SSB taxes.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of implemented SSB taxes with prices, sales, consumption, diet, body weight, product changes, unintended consequences, health, and pregnancy outcomes.

DATA SOURCES

Searches of 8 bibliographic databases (Business Source Complete, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, EconLit, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Scopus) were performed from database inception through June 1, 2020, with no language or setting restrictions. Grey literature was assessed using 14 sources and government websites.

STUDY SELECTION

The review included primary studies of implemented SSB taxes.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

The review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines. For prices, sales and consumption, results were meta-analyzed using a 3-level random-effects model. Study quality was assessed at the outcome level.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Tax pass-through rate for prices, percentage reduction in SSB demand, and price elasticity of demand for sales and consumption. Heterogeneity was assessed using τ2 and the I2 statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 86 articles were eligible, with 62 studies contributing to the meta-analysis. The overall tax pass-through rate was 82% (95% CI, 66% to 98%; P < .001, I2 = 99%), suggesting tax undershifting. The demand for SSBs was highly sensitive to tax-induced price increases, with the price elasticity of demand of -1.59 (95% CI, -2.11 to -1.08; P < .001; I2 = 100%) and a mean reduction in SSB sales of 15% (95% CI, -20% to -9%; P < .001; I2 = 100%). There was no evidence of substitution to untaxed beverages, and changes in SSB consumption were not significant. The narrative synthesis found reformulation and reduced sugar content of taxed beverages for tiered taxes, cross-border shopping in most studies of local-level taxes, and no negative changes in employment. Data on the heterogeneity of SSB tax outcomes across subpopulations were limited.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this systematic review and meta-analysis of implemented SSB taxes worldwide, SSB taxes were associated with higher prices and lower sales of taxed beverages.

Evaluation of Economic and Health Outcomes Associated With Food Taxes and Subsidies: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Fiscal policy is a promising approach to incentivizing better food choices and reducing the burden of chronic disease. To inform guidelines on using fiscal policies, including taxes and subsidies, to promote health, the World Health Organization commissioned a systematic review and meta-analysis of the worldwide literature on the outcomes of such policies for food products.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the outcomes of implemented food taxes and subsidies for prices, sales, consumption, and population-level diet and health.

DATA SOURCES

Eight bibliographic databases were searched for peer-reviewed literature and 14 data sources along with governmental websites were searched for grey literature that were published from database inception through June 1, 2020. There were no language and setting restrictions.

STUDY SELECTION

Only primary studies of implemented food taxes and subsidies were considered for inclusion.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed. A 3-level random-effects model was used to conduct a meta-analysis of sales and consumption outcomes of fruit and vegetable subsidies. Other outcomes were analyzed in a narrative synthesis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Study estimates in the meta-analysis were combined using a price elasticity measure for sales and consumption outcomes. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic and τ2. Studies varied in how diet and health were measured.

RESULTS

A total of 54 articles were included in the systematic review, of which 15 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Most food subsidies targeted fruits and vegetables and populations with low income, whereas the evidence on food taxes was primarily from the nonessential energy-dense food tax in Mexico. Sales of subsidized fruits and vegetables increased significantly, with an estimated price elasticity of demand of -0.59 (95% CI, -1.04 to -0.13 [P = .02]; 95% prediction interval, -2.07 to 0.90; I2 = 92.4% [95% CI, 89.0%-94.8%; P < .001]), suggesting inelastic demand. There was no significant change in the consumption of subsidized fruits and vegetables, with an estimated price elasticity of demand of -0.17 (95% CI, -0.49 to 0.15 [P = .26]; 95% prediction interval, -1.01 to 0.67; I2 = 76.2% [95% CI, 54.3%-87.6%; P < .001]). Food excise taxes were associated with higher prices and reduced sales. Evidence was limited on the differential outcomes of food taxes and subsidies across subpopulations.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Results of this systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that fruit and vegetable subsidies were associated with a moderate increase in fruit and vegetable sales. Further research is warranted to understand the implications of food taxes and subsidies for population-level consumption, diet, and health outcomes.

Impact of the Seattle Sweetened Beverage Tax on substitution to alcoholic beverages

Introduction

Taxes are increasingly used as a policy tool aimed at reducing consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), given their association with adverse health outcomes including type 2 diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease. However, a potential unintended consequence of such a policy could be that the tax induces substitution to alcoholic beverages. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the $0.0175 per ounce Seattle, Washington, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on volume sold of alcoholic beverages.

Methods

A difference-in-differences estimation approach was used drawing on universal product code-level food store scanner data on beer (N = 1059) and wine (N = 2655) products one-year pre-tax (February-November, 2017) and one and two-years post-tax (February-November, 2018 and 2019) with Portland, Oregon, as the comparison site.

Results

At two-years post-tax implementation, volume sold of beer in Seattle relative to Portland increased by 7% (ratio of incidence rate ratios [RIRR] = 1.07, 95% CI:1.00,1.15), whereas volume sold of wine decreased by 3% (RIRR = 0.97, 95% CI:0.95,1.00). Overall alcohol (both beer and wine) volume sold increased in Seattle compared to Portland by 4% (RIRR = 1.04, 95% CI:1.01,1.07) at one-year post-tax and by 5% (RIRR = 1.05, 95% CI:1.00,1.10) at two-years post-tax. The implied SSB cross-price elasticities of demand for beer and wine, respectively, were calculated to be 0.35 and -0.15.

Conclusions

There was evidence of substitution to beer following the implementation of the Seattle SSB tax. Continued monitoring of potential unintended outcomes related to the implementation of SSB taxes is needed in future tax evaluations.

"Holding the City's Feet to the Fire": Lessons Learned From Oakland's Implementation of Measure HH Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax

CONTEXT

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes offer a promising public health strategy to decrease consumption of sugary beverages. To date, 7 US cities have successfully implemented SSB taxes; however, only a few studies have examined adoption and implementation processes.

OBJECTIVES

To describe public health and policy lessons learned during the first 2.5 years of implementation of the Oakland, California, penny-per-ounce SSB tax, Measure HH.

DESIGN

A mixed-methods, longitudinal, qualitative case study was conducted using a combination of key informant interviews with implementation stakeholders as well as analyses of archival documents and media documents from 2016 to 2019. Interviews were digitally recorded and professionally transcribed. Interview transcripts, archival documents, and media documents were analyzed by 3 coders using Atlas.ti v8. Analyses employed principles of constant comparative analysis to identify themes related to lessons learned.

SETTING

Oakland, California.

PARTICIPANTS

Key informants (n = 15), archival documents (n = 43), and media documents (n = 90).

INTERVENTION

Oakland, California's SSB tax (Measure HH).

RESULTS

Implementation lessons included both success stories and challenges. Successes included contracting a third-party tax administrator to support tax collection and education; leveraging a pro-tax coalition to counteract industry attacks and to protect tax revenue; and offering "quick win" funding to support local needs. Challenges were associated with implementing a "general" tax versus a "special" tax; the lack of explicit revenue allocation in the ordinance to support city-level implementation and oversight; and, the original ordinance language for tax application to distributors.

CONCLUSIONS

The study offers a range of recommendations-derived from lessons learned over several years of implementation-to policy makers and advocates engaged in SSB tax adoption and implementation efforts in their jurisdictions. SSB tax implementation requires sufficient agency administrative capacity and a strong pro-tax coalition that engages local community organizations to respond to public health needs.

Longer-term impacts of the Oakland, California, sugar-sweetened beverage tax on prices and volume sold at two-years post-tax

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity and independently associated with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Not only is obesity a growing public health problem, but it is also most recently associated with increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19. Taxes on SSBs are a policy tool used to help curb SSB consumption and are currently implemented in 7 U.S. cities and more than 40 countries. On July 1, 2017, Oakland, California, implemented a 1-cent/ounce tax on SSBs with ≥25 kilocalories/12 ounces. This study estimated the impact of the Oakland tax on prices, volume sold, and cross-border shopping two-years post-tax relative to one-year pre-tax. Universal product code-level Nielsen retail scanner data on non-alcoholic beverage sales were analyzed using a difference-in-differences design with Sacramento, California, as the comparison site. Taxed beverage prices increased by 0.67 cents/ounce, on average, in Oakland relative to Sacramento, corresponding to 67% pass-through. Taxed beverage volume sold decreased by 18% in Oakland relative to Sacramento, with a larger decrease for family-size beverages (23%) relative to individual-size beverages (8%). There was a 9% increase in volume sold of taxed beverages in the two-mile border area surrounding Oakland relative to the Sacramento border area, driven by a 12% increase for family-size taxed beverages. After accounting for this cross-border shopping, there was a net decrease of 6% in taxed beverage volume sold in Oakland. There was no significant change in untaxed beverage volume sold in either Oakland or its border area relative to their respective comparison sites, suggesting there was no substitution to untaxed beverages and cross-border shopping may have been limited to taxed beverages. This two-year post-tax study of the Oakland SSB tax adds to the limited number of longer-term evaluations of local U.S. SSB taxes.

Evaluation of Changes in Grams of Sugar Sold After the Implementation of the Seattle Sweetened Beverage Tax

IMPORTANCE

Adults and children routinely exceed recommended intake amounts of added sugars established by dietary guidelines. Taxes are used as a policy tool to reduce demand for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) given consumption-related adverse health outcomes but may induce substitution to other sources of added sugars.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the extent to which changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages may be offset by changes in grams of sugar sold from untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar after the implementation of the Seattle, Washington, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on January 1, 2018.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used difference-in-differences analyses to examine changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed and untaxed products in Seattle compared with Portland, Oregon, at year 1 and year 2 post tax. This study used Nielsen scanner data from supermarkets and mass merchandise as well as grocery, drug, convenience, and dollar stores on unit sales and measurements for beverage and food product universal product codes (UPCs) for each site for the pretax period (January 8-December 30, 2017) and the corresponding weeks in year 1 post tax (2018) and in year 2 post tax (2019). Nutritional analyses assessed grams of sugar for each UPC. The analytical balanced sample included 1326 taxed beverage UPCs, 239 untaxed beverage UPCs, 2054 sweets UPCs, and 81 stand-alone sugar UPCs. Statistical analysis was performed from January to August 2021.

EXPOSURES

Implementation of the Seattle SBT.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages, untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar.

RESULTS

At both year 1 and year 2 post tax in Seattle compared with Portland, grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages decreased 23% (year 2 posttax ratio of incidence rate ratios [RIRR] = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.80). Sugar sold from untaxed beverages increased at year 1 post tax by 4% (RIRR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.07) with no change at year 2 post tax. Sugar sold from sweets increased by 4% at both year 1 and year 2 post tax (year 2 posttax RIRR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.06). There were no changes in stand-alone sugar sold.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study using difference-in-differences analysis found a net 19% reduction in grams of sugar sold from taxed SSBs at year 2 post tax after accounting for changes in sugar sold from untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar. These results suggest that SSB taxes may effectively yield permanent reductions in added sugars sold from SSBs in food stores.

The Impact of Seattle's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax on Substitution to Sweets and Salty Snacks

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes may have broad effects on purchases of untaxed foods, and substitution of SSBs with untaxed sweets and/or salty snacks could offset the intended dietary and health effects of these policies.

OBJECTIVES

To test whether there were changes in sales and calories sold for untaxed foods in response to the SSB tax in Seattle, Washington, at 12 and 24 months post-tax implementation.

METHODS

On 1 January 2018, the City of Seattle levied a 1.75 cents per ounce excise tax on distributors selling targeted SSBs. We utilized universal product code-level store scanner data and employed a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impacts of the tax on the changes in 1) sales of sweets and salty snacks; and 2) total calories sold for sweets in Seattle relative to changes in its comparison site of Portland, Oregon, at 12 and 24 months post-tax.

RESULTS

In the 12 months post-tax, sales of sweets increased by 4% [ratio of incidence rate ratios (RIRR), 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05] in Seattle relative to the changes in Portland; at 24 months post-tax, sweet sales increased by 6% (RIRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.07) relative to the pretax period. There was no significant change in sales of salty snacks at 12 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.01) or 24 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02) post-tax. Total calories sold for sweets increased by 3% (RIRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) in Seattle compared with Portland at 12 months post-tax and by 4% (RIRR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) at 24 months after implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

There was modest substitution of SSBs for sweets in Seattle following tax implementation. However, this increase in sales and calories sold is not likely to offset previously identified tax-related reductions in the demand for taxed beverages in Seattle. Thus, SSB taxes are a promising policy tool to reduce caloric intake in the United States.

The impact of the Oakland SSB tax on prices and volume sold: A study of intended and unintended consequences

We examine the effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax that took effect in Oakland, California in 2017. Using rich customized universal product code -level data, we estimate the effect of the SSB tax on prices and volume in the short to medium term in a difference-in-differences framework. We pay particular attention to tax-avoidance strategies that may minimize the policy's intended effect including: (i) transfers to SSBs to the nontaxed border area (i.e., cross-border shopping), (ii) a move from high-priced per ounce single serve to their cheaper multipacks or larger format counterparts (i.e., format switching), and (iii) a move from high-priced beverages to less expensive ones within a category and format (i.e., brand switching). We find that the year-over-year tax pass-through is 49%. We find that volume sold of taxed beverages fell by 14%, but 46% of this decrease is offset with an increase in the border area. We also find evidence of substitution to lower-priced taxed beverages but no evidence of switching to cheaper formats. Finally, we find important dynamic effects with respect to tax pass-through, volume sold and cross-border shopping.

Employment impacts of the San Francisco sugar-sweetened beverage tax 2 years after implementation

Introduction

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been implemented worldwide to raise revenue and reduce consumption of SSBs, which is associated with health harms. Empirical evaluations have found that these taxes are successful at reducing demand for SSBs; however, SSB taxes face opposition, in part because of claims that they will lead to substantial job losses. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the San Francisco SSB tax, implemented on January 1st, 2018, on employment.

Methods

Monthly employment counts were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from January 2013 (5-years pre-tax) through December 2019 (2-years post-tax) for the overall economy, private sector, supermarkets and other grocery stores, convenience stores, limited-service restaurants, and beverage manufacturing. A synthetic control analysis was conducted for each employment outcome. The synthetic controls (i.e., estimated counterfactuals) were generated from a pool of urban control counties using pre-tax labor market-related characteristics.

Results

The synthetic controls had similar labor market-related characteristics and employment outcomes to those in San Francisco in the pre-tax period. Up to 2 years post-tax, differences in employment between San Francisco and the synthetic controls were small and not “statistically significant” based on placebo tests for all employment outcomes.

Conclusions

Up to two years post-tax, we do not find evidence that the San Francisco SSB tax negatively impacted net employment, employment in the private sector, or employment in specific SSB-related industries.

Did Playground Renovations Equitably Benefit Neighborhoods in Chicago?

Between 2013 and 2016, the Chicago Park District renovated 327 playgrounds in need of repair across Chicago through a $44 million investment. This study evaluated whether short-term and longer-term impacts of renovations on park use and park-based moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) differed by neighborhood income level and neighborhood concentration of Black residents. A total of 39 parks with renovated playgrounds and 39 matched comparison parks with playgrounds that needed repair but not selected for renovation in year 1 were studied. Three waves of observational data were collected at each park: baseline, 12 months post-renovation, and 24 months post-renovation. Difference-in-differences mixed-effects Poisson regression models estimated renovation effects. The effects of renovations differed by the income level and concentration of Black residents in the neighborhoods where parks were located. In low-income neighborhoods, renovations were associated with reductions in park use and park-based MVPA over the longer term. In contrast, renovations were associated with short- and longer-term increases in park use and park-based MVPA in medium-income neighborhoods and with longer-term increases in MVPA in high-income neighborhoods. Renovations were generally not associated with any changes in park use or park-based MVPA in high-percent Black neighborhoods, but they were associated with increased park use and park-based MVPA in low-percent Black neighborhoods. This study suggests playground renovations in Chicago may have had unintended consequences, increasing neighborhood income and racial disparities in park use and park-based MVPA. Future playground renovation efforts may need to allocate more resources for renovating the broader park where in disrepair, more intensely involve neighborhood residents, and employ complementary strategies such as additional park programming to ensure renovations benefit all neighborhoods.

Oakland's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax: Honoring the "Spirit" of the Ordinance Toward Equitable Implementation

Purpose: On November 8, 2016, Oakland, California, voters passed a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, which included language to support programs affecting communities and residents most affected by SSB-related health disparities. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively assess the extent to which those communities most affected by SSB-related health disparities were included in implementation decisions and were recipients of funding to support their needs.

Methods: A longitudinal case study from 2016 to 2019 in Oakland, CA, explored equity implementation themes through key informant interview transcripts (n=15) triangulated with media (n=90) and archived documents (n=43). Using principals of constant comparative analysis, all documents (n=148) were coded and thematically analyzed in Atlas.ti.

Results: SSB taxes—designed to support communities disproportionately impacted by SSB consumption—can be implemented with inclusivity and community representation. The Oakland ordinance established a Community Advisory Board (CAB) that partnered with community organizations throughout implementation to ensure inclusivity and recommend funding for programs to address health inequities, described as the “spirit” of the ordinance. These activities countered the beverage industry's tactics to target lower income communities of color with misinformation campaigns and hinder implementation.

Conclusion: A clearly written ordinance provides guidance, which affords an intentional and legal foundation for implementation processes. Establishing a CAB can mitigate inequities as members are invested in the community and initiatives to support residents. Advisory boards are able to liaise between city and local partners, which is a powerful tool for countering opposition campaigns, reaching lower income and communities of color, and ensuring adherence to funding mandates.

No long-term store marketing changes following sugar-sweetened beverage tax implementation: Oakland, California

Globally, more than 45 countries have implemented sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes; however, little is known about effects on marketing practices. For the 2017 Oakland, California, 1 cent per ounce SSB tax, this study evaluated long-term changes in beverage price promotions, depth of sale, and interior and exterior advertising at stores, collected via in-person audits at two time points (pre-tax and 24-months post-tax). Overall, based on difference-in-differences estimation, relative to the comparison site, no significant pre-post tax changes were found in the odds of price promotions, exterior or interior advertising, or sale depth for SSBs or untaxed beverages. As additional SSB taxes are considered these findings suggest that SSB taxes may not have long-term effects on store marketing practices.

The impact of the Philadelphia beverage tax on employment: A synthetic control analysis

Prevalence of obesity and other diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have continued to rise for decades in the United States. In addition to adverse health consequences, these diseases have led to substantial economic costs in the form of medical expenses and productivity losses. To address the rise in NCDs, excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are increasingly proposed and implemented as a policy tool for improving dietary intake and population health. To date, few empirical studies have evaluated the potential unintended economic effects of these taxes. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Philadelphia, PA, sweetened beverage tax (applied to both SSBs and artificially sweetened beverages) on employment in key industries that sell sweetened beverages as well as on net total employment. Drawing on monthly employment count data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from January 2012 through June 2019, we conducted a synthetic control analysis of total, private sector, limited-service restaurant, and convenience store employment. The synthetic controls reproduced nearly identical pre-tax employment trends to Philadelphia and had similar values of important predictors. In the post-tax period, Philadelphia employment was not lower, on average, than the synthetic control employment for each outcome. Placebo tests suggested a null effect of the tax, and the results were robust to changes in predictors and control site criteria. Overall, we did not find that the sweetened beverage tax resulted in job losses up to two and a half years after the tax was implemented. These findings are consistent with other peer-reviewed modeling and empirical papers on the employment and unemployment effects of sweetened beverage taxes.

Evaluation of Changes in Beverage Prices and Volume Sold Following the Implementation and Repeal of a Sweetened Beverage Tax in Cook County, Illinois

IMPORTANCE

Health taxes are policy tools used to reduce harmful consumption of products and raise tax revenue, and they may also be associated with signaling (ie, informational and educational) factors that enhance their impact.

OBJECTIVES

To examine changes in prices and volume sold of sweetened beverages following the implementation and repeal of the Cook County, Illinois, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) compared with the comparison site of St Louis County and city, Missouri, which did not impose a tax.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used interrupted time series analyses to assess changes in price and volume sold of taxed (based on beverage type and sweetener status) and untaxed beverages in Cook County compared with St Louis following the implementation of the SBT on August 2, 2017, and its repeal effective December 1, 2017. Statistical analysis was performed from January to June 2020.

EXPOSURES

Implementation and repeal of the Cook County SBT.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Changes in taxed and untaxed beverage prices and volume sold. Nielsen food store scanner data were obtained for weekly volume and dollar amount sold of nonalcoholic beverage universal product codes (UPCs) for each site in supermarkets and mass merchandise, grocery, drug, convenience, and dollar stores.

RESULTS

The analytic samples included 16 510 UPCs for volume and 2141 UPCs (balanced sample) for prices for 122 pretax weeks, 16 tax weeks, and 35 postrepeal weeks. Compared with St Louis, posttax implementation in Cook County resulted in a level increase in taxed beverage prices of 1.13 cents per fluid ounce (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.25 cents per fluid ounce), representing a slight overshifting, followed by a posttax repeal level decrease of -1.19 cents per fluid ounce (95% CI, -1.33 to -1.04 cents per fluid ounce), with no resulting change pretax to posttax repeal. Volume sold of taxed beverages in Cook County compared with St Louis exhibited a posttax implementation level decrease of 25.7% (β = -0.297; 95% CI, -0.415 to -0.179) and a posttax repeal level increase of 30.5% (β = 0.266, 95% CI, 0.124 to 0.408), with no net change in volume sold from pretax to 8 months after repeal.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study using interrupted time series analysis found no net change in volume sold of taxed beverages following the implementation and repeal of the Cook County SBT, suggesting the tax had no signaling association. Repeals of such taxes may fully reverse their associations with reduced demand and harms associated with sweetened beverage intake.

Development of a Predictive Algorithm to Identify Adults With Mobility Limitations Using VA Health Care Administrative Data

An estimated 31.5 million Americans have a mobility limitation. Health care administrative data could be a valuable resource for research on this population but methods for cohort identification are lacking. We developed and tested an algorithm to reliably identify adults with mobility limitation in U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs health care data. We linked diagnosis, encounter, durable medical equipment, and demographic data for 964 veterans to their self-reported mobility limitation from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. We evaluated performance of logistic regression models in classifying mobility limitation. The binary approach (yes/no limitation) had good sensitivity (70%) and specificity (79%), whereas the multilevel approach did not perform well. The algorithms for predicting a binary mobility limitation outcome performed well at discriminating between veterans who did and did not have mobility limitation. Future work should focus on multilevel approaches to predicting mobility limitation and samples with greater proportions of women and younger adults.

The Sweetened Beverage Tax in Cook County, Illinois: Lessons From a Failed Effort

Objectives. To describe the public health and policy lessons learned from the failure of the Cook County, Illinois, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT).Methods. This retrospective, mixed-methods, qualitative study involved key informant (KI) and discussion group interviews and document analysis including news media, court documents, testimony, letters, and press releases. Two coders used Atlas.ti v.8A to analyze 321 documents (from September 2016 through December 2017) and 6 KI and discussion group transcripts (from December 2017 through August 2018).Results. Key lessons were (1) the SBT process needed to be treated as a political campaign, (2) there was inconsistent messaging regarding the tax purpose (i.e., revenue vs public health), (3) it was important to understand the local context and constraints, (4) there was implementation confusion, and (5) the media influenced an antitax backlash.Conclusions. The experience with the implementation and repeal of the Cook County SBT provides important lessons for future beverage tax efforts.Public Health Implications. Beverage taxation efforts need to be treated as political campaigns requiring strong coalitions, clear messaging, substantial resources, and work within the local context.

The impact of the Cook County, IL, Sweetened Beverage Tax on beverage prices

This study assessed the extent to which the Cook County, IL, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) of one cent per ounce (oz) on sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverages was passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. We drew on universal product code-level store scanner data and used a pre-post intervention-comparison site difference-in-differences (DID) study design to estimate the impact of the Cook County SBT on prices of taxed beverages, across product categories and sizes, as well as on prices of untaxed beverages. The DID model results showed an over-shifting of the tax with a 119% pass-through rate, on average, across all taxed beverages in Cook County compared to its comparison site. This price change represented, on average, a 34% increase in prices of taxed beverages. For untaxed beverages, prices were estimated to increase slightly by 0.04 cents per oz driven mainly by an increase in milk prices (0.12 cents per oz). We also found some heterogeneity in tax pass-through for the taxed beverages by sweetened beverage product category and size with pass-through being higher, on average, for individual-size (126%) compared to family-size (117%) beverages and higher for energy drinks (145%) compared to other sweetened beverages. Based on the baseline prices of different categories and sizes of beverages, the effective percentage increase in beverage prices resulting from the Cook County SBT ranged from a 52% increase for family-size soda to a 10% increase for family-size energy drinks.

The impact of Seattle's Sweetened Beverage Tax on beverage prices and volume sold

On January 1, 2018 the city of Seattle, WA, implemented a 1.75-cent per ounce (oz) Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on sugar-sweetened beverages with at least 40 calories per 12 oz. This study drew on universal product code-level store scanner data and used a pre-post intervention-comparison site difference-in-differences (DID) study design to assess the impact of the SBT on taxed beverage prices in Seattle, the volume sold of taxed beverages in Seattle and in its 2-mile border area (cross-border shopping), and the volume sold of untaxed beverages (substitution) relative to changes in its comparison site of Portland, OR. The DID results showed that, on average, in the first year post-tax implementation, prices of taxed beverages rose by 1.03 cents per oz (p < 0.001) corresponding to a 59% tax pass-through rate. Volume sold of taxed beverages fell, on average, by 22% (p < 0.001) in the first year following the implementation of the tax. Volume sold of taxed beverages fell to a greater extent for family- versus individual-size beverages (31% versus 10%) and fell to a greater extent for soda (29%) compared to all other beverage types. Moderate substitution to untaxed beverages was found - volume sold of untaxed beverages increased by 4% (p < 0.05). The results revealed no significant increases in the overall volume sold of taxed beverages in the 2-mile border area of Seattle relative to its comparison site suggesting that tax avoidance in the form of cross-border shopping did not dampen the impact of the tax.