Sympathetic nervous activation, mitochondrial dysfunction and outcome in acutely decompensated cirrhosis: the metabolomic prognostic models (CLIF-C MET)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Current prognostic scores of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD), particularly those with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), underestimate the risk of mortality. This is probably because systemic inflammation (SI), the major driver of AD/ACLF, is not reflected in the scores. SI induces metabolic changes, which impair delivery of the necessary energy for the immune reaction. This investigation aimed to identify metabolites associated with short-term (28-day) death and to design metabolomic prognostic models.

METHODS

Two prospective multicentre large cohorts from Europe for investigating ACLF and development of ACLF, CANONIC (discovery, n=831) and PREDICT (validation, n=851), were explored by untargeted serum metabolomics to identify and validate metabolites which could allow improved prognostic modelling.

RESULTS

Three prognostic metabolites strongly associated with death were selected to build the models. 4-Hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate is a norepinephrine derivative, which may be derived from the brainstem response to SI. Additionally, galacturonic acid and hexanoylcarnitine are associated with mitochondrial dysfunction. Model 1 included only these three prognostic metabolites and age. Model 2 was built around 4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate, hexanoylcarnitine, bilirubin, international normalised ratio (INR) and age. In the discovery cohort, both models were more accurate in predicting death within 7, 14 and 28 days after admission compared with MELDNa score (C-index: 0.9267, 0.9002 and 0.8424, and 0.9369, 0.9206 and 0.8529, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Similar results were found in the validation cohort (C-index: 0.940, 0.834 and 0.791, and 0.947, 0.857 and 0.810, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Also, in ACLF, model 1 and model 2 outperformed MELDNa 7, 14 and 28 days after admission for prediction of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Models including metabolites (CLIF-C MET) reflecting SI, mitochondrial dysfunction and sympathetic system activation are better predictors of short-term mortality than scores based only on organ dysfunction (eg, MELDNa), especially in patients with ACLF.

Use of albumin infusion for cirrhosis-related complications: An international position statement

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Numerous studies have evaluated the role of human albumin (HA) in managing various liver cirrhosis-related complications. However, their conclusions remain partially controversial, probably because HA was evaluated in different settings, including indications, patient characteristics, and dosage and duration of therapy.

METHODS

Thirty-three investigators from 19 countries with expertise in the management of liver cirrhosis-related complications were invited to organise an International Special Interest Group. A three-round Delphi consensus process was conducted to complete the international position statement on the use of HA for treatment of liver cirrhosis-related complications.

RESULTS

Twelve clinically significant position statements were proposed. Short-term infusion of HA should be recommended for the management of hepatorenal syndrome, large volume paracentesis, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in liver cirrhosis. Its effects on the prevention or treatment of other liver cirrhosis-related complications should be further elucidated. Long-term HA administration can be considered in specific settings. Pulmonary oedema should be closely monitored as a potential adverse effect in cirrhotic patients receiving HA infusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the currently available evidence, the international position statement suggests the potential benefits of HA for the management of multiple liver cirrhosis-related complications and summarises its safety profile. However, its optimal timing and infusion strategy remain to be further elucidated.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Thirty-three investigators from 19 countries proposed 12 position statements on the use of human albumin (HA) infusion in liver cirrhosis-related complications. Based on current evidence, short-term HA infusion should be recommended for the management of HRS, LVP, and SBP; whereas, long-term HA administration can be considered in the setting where budget and logistical issues can be resolved. However, pulmonary oedema should be closely monitored in cirrhotic patients who receive HA infusion.

Missing data patterns in runners’ careers: do they matter?

Predicting the future performance of young runners is an important research issue in experimental sports science and performance analysis. We analyse a dataset with annual seasonal best performances of male middle distance runners for a period of 14 years and provide a modelling framework that accounts for both the fact that each runner has typically run in 3 distance events (800, 1,500, and 5,000 m) and the presence of periods of no running activities. We propose a latent class matrix-variate state space model and we empirically demonstrate that accounting for missing data patterns in runners’ careers improves the out of sample prediction of their performances over time. In particular, we demonstrate that for this analysis, the missing data patterns provide valuable information for the prediction of runner’s performance.

The determinants of Airbnb prices in New York City: a spatial quantile regression approach

In this paper, we study the price determinants of Airbnb rentals, for the case of New York City, by developing a new dataset, which combines attributes of the property and of the related service, with other information available as open data. This dataset is employed within a spatial quantile semiparametric regression model, able to handle the intrinsic heterogeneity of house prices. The results confirm that property and service attributes play a significant role in determining rental prices, while some variables exert a different impact on prices in magnitude and sign, depending on the quantile considered.

A case series of fetal lymphatic malformations and a review of the literature

Lymphatic malformations are rare benign developmental anomalies of the lymphatic system that can be diagnosed by prenatal ultrasound. Depending on their anatomical site and size, the lesions can cause a variety of aesthetic and functional deficits. Several treatment options are available, the most suitable is still under debate. The experience gained at our Centre and the review of the literature can be useful to improve prenatal counseling, that is challenging due to the heterogeneity of clinical presentation and treatment.

Case Report: Invasive Fungal Infection and Daratumumab: A Case Series and Review of Literature

Life expectancy of multiple myeloma (MM) patients has improved in last years due to the advent of anti-CD38 monoclonal antibodies in combination with immunomodulators and proteasome inhibitors. However, morbidity and mortality related to infections remain high and represent a major concern. This paper describes the “real life” risk of invasive fungal infections (IFI) in patients treated with daratumumab-based therapy and reviews the relevant literature. In a series of 75 patients we only observed three cases of fungal pneumonia. Unfortunately, the early signs and symptoms were not specific for fungal infection. Diagnostic imaging, microbiology and patient history, especially previous therapies, are critical in the decision to start antifungal treatment. Recognising the subgroup of MM patients with high risk of IFI can increase the rate of diagnosis, adequate treatment and MM-treatment recovery.

Robust estimation of time-dependent precision matrix with application to the cryptocurrency market

Most financial signals show time dependency that, combined with noisy and extreme events, poses serious problems in the parameter estimations of statistical models. Moreover, when addressing asset pricing, portfolio selection, and investment strategies, accurate estimates of the relationship among assets are as necessary as are delicate in a time-dependent context. In this regard, fundamental tools that increasingly attract research interests are precision matrix and graphical models, which are able to obtain insights into the joint evolution of financial quantities. In this paper, we present a robust divergence estimator for a time-varying precision matrix that can manage both the extreme events and time-dependency that affect financial time series. Furthermore, we provide an algorithm to handle parameter estimations that uses the "maximization-minimization" approach. We apply the methodology to synthetic data to test its performances. Then, we consider the cryptocurrency market as a real data application, given its remarkable suitability for the proposed method because of its volatile and unregulated nature.

Alcohol-Related Liver Disease in the Covid-19 Era: Position Paper of the Italian Society on Alcohol (SIA)

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), firstly reported in China last November 2019, became a global pandemic. It has been shown that periods of isolation may induce a spike in alcohol use disorder (AUD). In addition, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is the most common consequence of excessive alcohol consumption worldwide. Moreover, liver impairment has also been reported as a common manifestation of COVID-19.

AIMS

The aim of our position paper was to consider some critical issues regarding the management of ALD in patients with AUD in the era of COVID-19.

METHODS

A panel of experts of the Italian Society of Alcohology (SIA) met via "conference calls" during the lockdown period to draft the SIA's criteria for the management of ALD in patients with COVID-19 as follows: (a) liver injury in patients with ALD and COVID-19 infection; (b) toxicity to the liver of the drugs currently tested to treat COVID-19 and the pharmacological interaction between medications used to treat AUD and to treat COVID-19; (c) reorganization of the management of compensated and decompensated ALD and liver transplantation in the COVID-19 era.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly carried us toward a new governance scenario of AUD and ALD which necessarily requires an in-depth review of the management of these diseases with a new safe approach (management of out-patients and in-patients following new rules of safety, telemedicine, telehealth, call meetings with clinicians, nurses, patients, and caregivers) without losing the therapeutic efficacy of multidisciplinary treatment.

Towards a new definition of decompensated cirrhosis

There is a universal agreement that the occurrence of clinical complications, such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, and jaundice mark the transition from the compensated to the decompensated stage of cirrhosis. Decompensation is associated with a substantial worsening of patient prognosis and is therefore considered the most important stratification variable for the risk of death. However, this classification is an oversimplification, as it does not discriminate between the prognostic subgroups that characterise the course of decompensation, which depends on the type and number of decompensating events. A deeper insight into the clinical course of decompensated cirrhosis is provided by observational studies characterising acute decompensation (AD), which occurs mostly in patients who have already experienced decompensating events. Decompensation presents as AD in a portion of patients while in many others it presents as a slow development of ascites or mild grade 1 or 2 hepatic encephalopathy, or jaundice, not requiring hospitalisation. Thus, we propose that decompensation of cirrhosis occurs through 2 distinct pathways: a non-acute and an acute (which includes acute-on-chronic liver failure) pathway. Moreover, while non-acute decompensation is the most frequent pathway of the first decompensation, AD mostly represents further decompensation.

Prevention of Cirrhosis Complications: Looking for Potential Disease Modifying Agents

The current therapeutic strategies for the management of patients with cirrhosis rely on the prevention or treatment of specific complications. The removal of the causative agents (i.e., viruses or alcohol) prevents decompensation in the vast majority of patients with compensated cirrhosis. In contrast, even when etiological treatment has been effective, a significant proportion of patients with decompensated cirrhosis remains at risk of further disease progression. Therefore, therapies targeting specific key points in the complex pathophysiological cascade of decompensated cirrhosis could represent a new approach for the management of these severely ill patients. Some of the interventions currently employed for treating or preventing specific complications of cirrhosis or used in other diseases (i.e., poorly absorbable oral antibiotics, statins, albumin) have been proposed as potential disease-modifying agents in cirrhosis (DMAC) since clinical studies have shown their capacity of improving survival. Additional multicenter, large randomized clinical trials are awaited to confirm these promising results. Finally, new drugs able to antagonize key pathophysiological mechanisms are under pre-clinical development or at the initial stages of clinical assessment.

Determination of Effective Albumin in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis: Clinical and Prognostic Implications

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Circulating albumin in cirrhosis can be dysfunctional because of accumulating structural damages, leading to the concept of effective albumin concentration (eAlb), referring to the albumin portion presenting structural and functional integrity. We aimed to estimate eAlb in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and analyze its relationships with albumin function and clinical outcomes as compared to total albumin concentration (tAlb).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We evaluated 319 patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for acute decompensation (AD) with and without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and 18 age- and sex-comparable outpatients with compensated cirrhosis. tAlb was quantified by standard assay, whereas eAlb was estimated combining liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry and standard methods. Albumin binding and detoxification efficiency were evaluated by electron paramagnetic resonance analysis. Circulating albumin in patients with decompensated cirrhosis displayed multiple structural abnormalities, with reversible oxidation and glycation being the most frequent. As a result, eAlb progressively declined with the worsening of cirrhosis and was superior to tAlb in stratifying patients between compensated cirrhosis, AD, and ACLF, as well as patients with and without complications. Moreover, eAlb, but not tAlb, was closely associated with binding capacities in ACLF. Finally, eAlb at admission predicted the occurrence of ACLF within 30 days and mortality at 90 days better than tAlb.

CONCLUSIONS

This large, observational study provides the evidence in patients with decompensated cirrhosis that eAlb can be quantified and differentiated from tAlb routinely measured in clinical practice. As compared to tAlb, eAlb is more closely associated with disease severity and albumin dysfunction and carries a greater prognostic power. These results prompt future research assessing eAlb as a biomarker for predicting prognosis and treatment response.

Pathophysiology of decompensated cirrhosis: Portal hypertension, circulatory dysfunction, inflammation, metabolism and mitochondrial dysfunction

Patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis have a dismal prognosis and frequently progress to acute-on-chronic liver failure, which is characterised by hepatic and extrahepatic organ failure(s). The pathomechanisms involved in decompensation and disease progression are still not well understood, and as specific disease-modifying treatments do not exist, research to identify novel therapeutic targets is of the utmost importance. This review amalgamates the latest knowledge on disease mechanisms that lead to tissue injury and extrahepatic organ failure - such as systemic inflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and metabolic changes - and marries these with the classical paradigms of acute decompensation to form a single paradigm. With this detailed breakdown of pathomechanisms, we identify areas for future research. Novel disease-modifying strategies that break the vicious cycle are urgently required to improve patient outcomes.

PREDICT identifies precipitating events associated with the clinical course of acutely decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis may present without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) (AD-No ACLF), or with ACLF (AD-ACLF), defined by organ failure(s). Herein, we aimed to analyze and characterize the precipitants leading to both of these AD phenotypes.

METHODS

The multicenter, prospective, observational PREDICT study (NCT03056612) included 1,273 non-electively hospitalized patients with AD (No ACLF = 1,071; ACLF = 202). Medical history, clinical data and laboratory data were collected at enrolment and during 90-day follow-up, with particular attention given to the following characteristics of precipitants: induction of organ dysfunction or failure, systemic inflammation, chronology, intensity, and relationship to outcome.

RESULTS

Among various clinical events, 4 distinct events were precipitants consistently related to AD: proven bacterial infections, severe alcoholic hepatitis, gastrointestinal bleeding with shock and toxic encephalopathy. Among patients with precipitants in the AD-No ACLF cohort and the AD-ACLF cohort (38% and 71%, respectively), almost all (96% and 97%, respectively) showed proven bacterial infection and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination with other events. Survival was similar in patients with proven bacterial infections or severe alcoholic hepatitis in both AD phenotypes. The number of precipitants was associated with significantly increased 90-day mortality and was paralleled by increasing levels of surrogates for systemic inflammation. Importantly, adequate first-line antibiotic treatment of proven bacterial infections was associated with a lower ACLF development rate and lower 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis in patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

LAY SUMMARY

Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is characterized by a rapid deterioration in patient health. Herein, we aimed to analyze the precipitating events that cause AD in patients with cirrhosis. Proven bacterial infections and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination, accounted for almost all (96-97%) cases of AD and acute-on-chronic liver failure. Whilst the type of precipitant was not associated with mortality, the number of precipitant(s) was. This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis of patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve patient outcomes.

Assessing the role of amino acids in systemic inflammation and organ failure in patients with ACLF

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Systemic inflammation and organ failure(s) are the hallmarks of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), yet their pathogenesis remains uncertain. Herein, we aimed to assess the role of amino acids in these processes in patients with ACLF.

METHODS

The blood metabolomic database of the CANONIC study (comprising 137 metabolites, with 43% related to amino acids) - obtained in 181 patients with ACLF and 650 with acute decompensation without ACLF (AD) - was reanalyzed with a focus on amino acids, in particular 9 modules of co-regulated metabolites. We also compared blood metabolite levels between ACLF and AD.

RESULTS

The main findings in ACLF were: i) Metabolite modules were increased in parallel with increased levels of markers of systemic inflammation and oxidative stress. ii) Seventy percent of proteinogenic amino acids were present and most were increased. iii) A metabolic network, comprising the amino acids aspartate, glutamate, the serine-glycine one-carbon metabolism (folate cycle), and methionine cycle, was activated, suggesting increased purine and pyrimidine nucleotide synthesis. iv) Cystathionine, L-cystine, glutamate and pyroglutamate, which are involved in the transsulfuration pathway (a methionine cycle branch) were increased, consistent with increased synthesis of the antioxidant glutathione. v) Intermediates of the catabolism of 5 out of the 6 ketogenic amino acids were increased. vi) The levels of spermidine (a polyamine inducer of autophagy with anti-inflammatory effects) were decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

In ACLF, blood amino acids fueled protein and nucleotide synthesis required for the intense systemic inflammatory response. Ketogenic amino acids were extensively catabolized to produce energy substrates in peripheral organs, an effect that was insufficient because organs failed. Finally, the decrease in spermidine levels may cause a defect in autophagy contributing to the proinflammatory phenotype in ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Systemic inflammation and organ failures are hallmarks of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Herein, we aimed to characterize the role of amino acids in these processes. The blood metabolome of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis, and particularly those with ACLF, reveals evidence of intense skeletal muscle catabolism. Importantly, amino acids (along with glucose), are used for intense anabolic, energy-consuming metabolism in patients with ACLF, presumably to support de novo nucleotide and protein synthesis in the activated innate immune system.

On-treatment serum albumin level can guide long-term treatment in patients with cirrhosis and uncomplicated ascites

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The ANSWER study reported that long-term albumin administration in patients with cirrhosis and uncomplicated ascites improves survival. During treatment, serum albumin increased within a month and remained stable thereafter. In this post hoc analysis, we aimed to determine whether on-treatment serum albumin levels could guide therapy.

METHODS

Logistic regression was used to assess the association between baseline serum albumin and mortality, as well as to determine on-treatment factors associated with mortality and to predict the achievement of a given on-treatment serum albumin level. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier estimates and second-order polynomial regression. Patients whose on-treatment serum albumin remained below normal were compared with a subset of patients from the control arm matched by principal score.

RESULTS

Baseline serum albumin was closely associated with 18-month mortality in untreated patients; albumin treatment almost effaced this relationship. On-treatment serum albumin and MELD-Na at month 1 were the sole independent variables associated with mortality. Second-order polynomial regression revealed that survival improved in parallel with increased 1-month on-treatment serum albumin. Kaplan-Meier estimations showed that any value of 1-month on-treatment serum albumin (0.1 g/dl intervals) in the range 2.5-4.5 g/dl discriminated patient survival. In the normal range of serum albumin, the best discriminant value was 4.0 g/dl. Compared to untreated patients, survival even improved in patients whose on-treatment serum albumin remained below normal.

CONCLUSION

Baseline serum albumin per se should not guide the decision to start albumin therapy. Conversely, 1-month on-treatment serum albumin levels are strongly associated with outcomes and could guide the use of albumin - 4.0 g/dl being the target threshold. However, even patients whose serum albumin remains below normal benefit from long-term albumin administration.

LAY SUMMARY

The ANSWER study has shown that long-term albumin administration improves survival and prevents the occurrence of major complications in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. This study shows that the achievement of these beneficial effects is related to a significant increase in serum albumin concentration. Even though the best results follow the achievement of a serum albumin concentration of 4 g/dl, a survival benefit is also achieved in patients who fail to normalise serum albumin.

Prognostic Role of Bacterial and Fungal Infections in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis With and Without Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Prospective 2-Center Study

BACKGROUND

Bacterial and fungal infections (BFIs) are frequent in patients with cirrhosis and often trigger acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). This prospective observational study aims to describe the interactions between BFI and ACLF in terms of mortality and related risk factors.

METHODS

We performed a 2-center prospective observational study enrolling hospitalized patients with cirrhosis admitted for acute decompensation. Data were recorded at admission and during hospitalization. Survival was recorded up to 1 year.

RESULTS

Among the 516 patients enrolled, 108 (21%) were infected at admission, while an additional 61 patients (12%) developed an infection during hospital stay. In the absence of ACLF, the 1-year mortality rate of patients with BFI did not differ from that of patients without BFI (33% vs 31%; P = .553). In contrast, those with ACLF triggered or complicated by BFI had a significantly higher mortality rate than those who remained free from BFI (75% vs 54%; P = .011). Competing risk analysis showed that the negative impact of ACLF-related BFI on long-term prognosis was independent from Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) incorporating serum sodium concentration score, comorbidity, and basal C-reactive protein level. Finally, multivariable logistic regression showed that higher MELD score (P < .001), QuickSOFA score ≥2 points (P = .007), and secondary bloodstream (P = .022) and multidrug-resistant pathogen isolation (P = .030) were independently associated with ACLF in patients with BFI.

CONCLUSIONS

This large prospective study indicated that the adverse impact of BFI on long-term survival in decompensated cirrhosis is not universal but is limited to those patients who also develop ACLF. Both disease severity and microbiological factors predispose infected decompensated patients to ACLF.

Albumin Administration is Efficacious in the Management of Patients with Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review of the Literature

The use of albumin in patients with cirrhosis has been extensively discussed over recent years. Current treatment approaches depend on targeting related complications, aiming to treat and/or prevent circulatory dysfunction, bacterial infections and multi-organ failure. Albumin has been shown to prolong survival and reduce complications in patients with cirrhosis. This review aims to ascertain whether the use of albumin is justified in patients with cirrhosis. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses evaluating albumin use in patients with cirrhosis published between 1985 and February 2020 was conducted; the quality and risk of bias of the included studies were assessed. In total, 45 RCTs and 10 meta-analyses were included. Based on the included evidence, albumin is superior at preventing and controlling the incidence of cirrhosis complications vs other plasma expanders. Recent studies reported that long-term albumin administration to patients with decompensated cirrhosis improves survival with a 38% reduction in the mortality hazard ratio compared with standard medical treatment alone. Albumin infusions are justified for routine use in patients with cirrhosis, and the use of albumin either alone or in combination with other treatments leads to clinical benefits. Long-term administration of albumin should be considered in some patients.