Measuring the 3-30-300 rule to help cities meet nature access thresholds

The 3-30-300 rule offers benchmarks for cities to promote equitable nature access. It dictates that individuals should see three trees from their dwelling, have 30 % tree canopy in their neighborhood, and live within 300 m of a high-quality green space. Implementing this demands thorough measurement, monitoring, and evaluation methods, yet little guidance is currently available to pursue these actions. To overcome this gap, we employed an expert-based consensus approach to review the available ways to measure 3-30-300 as well as each measure's strengths and weaknesses. We described seven relevant data and processes: vegetation indices, street level analyses, tree inventories, questionnaires, window view analyses, land cover maps, and green space maps. Based on the reviewed strengths and weaknesses of each measure, we presented a suitability matrix to link recommended measures with each component of the rule. These recommendations included surveys and window-view analyses for the '3 component', high-resolution land cover maps for the '30 component', and green space maps with network analyses for the '300 component'. These methods, responsive to local situations and resources, not only implement the 3-30-300 rule but foster broader dialogue on local desires and requirements. Consequently, these techniques can guide strategic investments in urban greening for health, equity, biodiversity, and climate adaptation.

Risk factors associated with short-term complications in mandibular fractures: the MANTRA study-a Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC)

INTRODUCTION

Complications following mandibular fractures occur in 9-23% of patients. Identifying those at risk is key to prevention. Previous studies highlighted smoking, age and time from injury to presentation as risk factors but rarely recorded other possible confounders. In this paper, we use a collaborative snapshot audit to document novel risk factors and confirm established risks for complications following the treatment of mandibular fractures.

METHODS

The audit was carried out by 122 OMFS trainees across the UK and Ireland (49 centres) over 6 months, coordinated by the Maxillofacial Surgery Trainees Research Collaborative. Variables recorded included basic demography, medical and social history, injury mechanism and type, management and 30-day outcome.

RESULTS

Nine hundred and forty-seven (947) patients with fractured mandibles were recorded. Surgical management was carried out in 76.3%. Complications at 30 days occurred 65 (9%) of those who were managed surgically. Risk factors for complications included male sex, increasing age, any medical history, increasing number of cigarettes smoked per week, increasing alcohol use per week, worse oral hygiene and increased time from injury to presentation.

DISCUSSION

We have used a large prospective snapshot audit to confirm established risk factors and identify novel risk factors. We demonstrate that time from injury to presentation is confounded by other indicators of poor health behaviour. These results are important in designing trial protocols for management of mandibular fractures and in targeting health interventions to patients at highest risk of complications.

A67 RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH CRITICAL CARE AFTER INPATIENT GASTROINTESTINAL ENDOSCOPY: A 5-YEAR TERTIARY HOSPITAL STUDY

Background

A subset of hospitalized patients will require critical care after their gastrointestinal endoscopy (GIE) and predicting which patients are at high risk of requiring critical care remains an important challenge.

Purpose

To identify protective and aggravating clinical risk factors associated with critical care involvement within 7 days of inpatient GIE in adults and to develop a tool that could assist in risk-stratifying patients at high risk of requiring critical care post-endoscopy.

Method

This was a single-centre retrospective case-control study of adult patients who underwent inpatient GIE while admitted to ward-level care at Toronto General Hospital from years 2015 to 2019. Cases were defined by inpatients who required critical care response team and/or critical care admission within 7 days of GIE, compared to control patients who did not require critical care throughout admission. Chart review and linked secondary sources were used with defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed comparing patient baseline, clinical history (including cardiovascular, respiratory, other co-morbidities) and endoscopy characteristics.

Result(s)

We identified a total of 275 patients with 302 endoscopies as cases and 2069 patient controls who satisfied inclusion criteria. Critical care involvement was most commonly due to cardiovascular-related complications (n=175, 58%) followed by respiratory complications (n=117, 39%). Amongst cases, death occurred in 9 (3%), 25 (9%) and 67 (22%) within 72 hours, 7 days and 30 days respectively post endoscopy. The strongest associations with critical care involvement within 7 days after GIE included a history of discharge from critical care (OR 2.29 CI 1.70-3.04) and/or recent mechanical ventilatory support (OR 2.27 CI 1.30-3.91) in the 30 days prior to endoscopy, having several co-morbidities involving major organ systems (elevated troponin OR 3.20 CI 2.26-4.52, cirrhosis OR 2.5 CI 1.80-3.46, renal dysfunction 2.09 CI 1.57-2.78) and patients admitted under surgical (OR 3.82 CI 2.54-5.71) or transplant services (OR 4.63 CI 2.94-7.26). The majority of adverse events among cases were not found to be complications directly related to GIE (64% unlikely, 20% possible, 9% probable, 7% definite). Patients with a history of pulmonary hypertension (OR 5.68 CI 0.53-60.70) and ASA score III/IV (OR 3.28 CI 1.01-10.73) had the highest odds of probable or definite endoscopy-related adverse events.

Conclusion(s)

This study is the largest to date to examine risk factors associated with critical care requirements post GIE in the tertiary care inpatient setting. The risk factors we have identified can be used to create a tool to determine which inpatients may benefit from anesthesia consultation and support during their endoscopic procedure.

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None

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

A56 DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGNOSTIC SURVIVAL MODEL FOR PATIENTS DIAGNOSED WITH PANCREATIC CANCER IN ONTARIO

Background

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) is a deadly disease with an overall 5-year survival of less than 8%. The current literature on patient outcomes are limited by small samples sizes and patients enrolled in clinical trials. There are no prognostic tools for patients with pancreatic cancer.

Purpose

To develop a prognostic survival model for patients with pancreatic cancer

Method

All patients with a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer cancer from January 2007 to December 2020 were identified through the Ontario Cancer Registry. The primary outcome was survival. The cohort was used to develop a multivariable cox proportional hazards regression model with baseline characteristics under a backward stepwise variable selection process to predict the risk of mortality. Covariates included patient age, sex, tumour location, cancer stage, treatment types, distance to a cancer centre, hospitalizations, comorbidities, access to family physician, and symptoms as captured using the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System datasets.

Result(s)

There was a total of 17,450 pancreatic cancer patients in the cohort, 48% of which were female and the mean age was 72 years. 44% of patients presented with a tumor in the head of the pancreas. Among those with stage data (44%), 24% were stage IV at diagnosis. Mean survival was approximately 0.7 years. Approximately 60% were hospitalized in the 3 months prior to diagnosis. Almost all patients had a family doctor rostered (95%). In multivariate analysis, key predictors of survival assessed at the time of diagnosis were age, sex, tumour location in the pancreas, stage at diagnosis, pain, appetite functional status and treatment choice (all p<0.001). Using these variables, we created a prediction model that can estimate one-year probability of death with high discrimination (area under the curve = 0.82, c-statistic 0.76).

Conclusion(s)

Our model accurately predicts one-year pancreatic cancer survival risk using clinical symptom and performance status data. The model has the potential to be a useful prognostic tool that can be completed by patients and their caregivers in support of patient-centered care.

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CIHR

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

A117 VALIDITY EVIDENCE FOR ENDOSCOPIC RETROGRADE CHOLANGIOPANCREATOGRAPHY COMPETENCY ASSESSMENT TOOLS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

Background

Assessment of competence in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is essential to ensure trainees possess the skills needed for independent practice. Traditionally, ERCP training has used the apprenticeship model, whereby novices learn skills under the supervision of an expert. A growing focus on procedural quality, however, has supported the implementation of competency-based medical education models which require documentation of a trainee’s competence for independent practice. Observational assessment tools with strong evidence of validity are critical to this process. Validity evidence supporting ERCP observational assessment tools has not been systematically evaluated.

Purpose

To conduct a systematic review of ERCP assessment tools and identify tools with strong evidence of validity using a unified validity evidence framework

Method

We conducted a systematic search using electronic databases and hand-searching from inception until August 2021 for studies evaluating observational assessment tools of ERCP performance. We used a unified validity framework to characterize validity evidence from five sources: content, response process, internal structure, relations to other variables, and consequences. Each domain was assigned a score of 0-3 (maximum score 15). We assessed educational utility and methodological quality using the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education framework and the Medical Education Research Quality Instrument, respectively.

Result(s)

From 2769 records, we included 17 studies evaluating 7 assessment tools. Five tools were studied for clinical ERCP, one on simulated ERCP, and one on simulated and clinical ERCP. Validity evidence scores ranged from 2-12. The Bethesda ERCP Skills Assessment Tool (BESAT), ERCP Direct Observation of Procedural Skills Tool (ERCP DOPS), and The Endoscopic Ultrasound (EUS) and ERCP Skills Assessment Tool (TEESAT) had the strongest validity evidence with scores of 10, 12, and 11, respectively. Regarding educational utility, most tools were easy to use and interpret, and required minimal additional resources. Overall methodological quality was strong, with scores ranging from 10-12.5 (maximum 13.5).

Conclusion(s)

The BESAT, ERCP DOPS, and TEESAT have strong validity evidence compared to other assessments. Integrating tools into training may help drive learners’ development and support competency decision-making.

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CAG

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

Prevalence of illicit drug use in young sudden cardiac death patients; an Australian prospective cohort study

Background

Illicit drug use may accelerate coronary disease and cardiac hypertrophy or stimulate arrhythmias. Rates of illicit drug use in young sudden cardiac death (SCD) patients are uncertain.

Purpose

To identify rates of illicit drug use in young SCD patients in Australia.

Methods

A prospective multi-centre registry identified out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients aged 1–50 years between April 2019 and April 2020. Clinical characteristics were compared between patients with and without illicit drug use (defined by toxicological results or reported regular use). Illicit drugs included stimulants such as amphetamine-type substances and cocaine, or non-stimulants such as heroin, cannabis and novel psychoactive substances (cathinones and synthetic cannabinoids).

Results

770 OHCAs occurred, with 555 patients undergoing forensic assessment. 287 patients had confirmed cardiac cause of OHCA, with 274 undergoing toxicological assessment and 79 (28.8%) having positive toxicology for illicit drugs (n=60) or reported regular drug use (n=19). An additional 121 patients experienced non-cardiac SCD due to illicit drug toxicity, resulting in a total of 200 patients (36.0% of OHCAs) with illicit drug use. Patients with SCD and illicit drug use were more commonly male (86.1% vs 72.3%, p=0.015), regular smokers (36.7% vs 21.5%, p=0.009), had cardiomegaly (76.5% vs 57.5%, p=0.007), and higher rates of coronary disease and cardiomyopathy (coronary disease 44.3% vs 33.3%, cardiomyopathy 30.4% vs 18.5%, p=0.003). Methamphetamines (n=42, 53.1%) were the most common illicit drug identified and polysubstance abuse occurred frequently (n=15, 19.0%).

Conclusion

Approximately one-third of young SCD patients use illicit drugs, with high rates of polysubstance abuse. Illicit drug use in SCD patients is associated with coronary disease and cardiomyopathy.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Prevalence of coronary artery anomalies in young sudden cardiac death: insights from a prospective state-wide registry

Background

Coronary artery anomalies (CAAs) have been previously implicated as a major cause of young sudden cardiac death (SCD), particularly in exercise-related SCD with a reported prevalence of up to 33%.

Methods

A state-wide prospective out-of-hospital cardiac arrest registry identified all patients aged 1–50 years who experienced an SCD and underwent autopsy from April 2019 to April 2021. Rates of normal anatomy, normal variants and CAAs were identified and circumstances and cause of death for patients with CAAs examined.

Results

Of 1,477 patients who experienced cardiac arrest during the study period, 490 underwent autopsy and were confirmed to have experienced SCD. Of these 490 patients, five (1.0%) had a CAA identified with three having anomalies of coronary origin and two having anomalies of coronary course. In no cases was the CAA deemed responsible for the SCD. In two cases, severe coronary disease and intra-coronary thrombus with histological evidence of acute myocardial infarction were identified, in the third critical coronary disease was found, the fourth had an unrelated thoracic aortic dissection and the fifth had cardiomegaly in the setting of illicit drug use. Of 27 patients who experienced their SCD during exercise, only one had a CAA identified (the patient with thoracic aortic dissection).

Conclusion

In this prospective cohort of consecutive young patients with SCD who underwent autopsy, CAAs occurred in 1.0% of patients and did not cause any deaths. The role of CAAs in causing young SCD appears to be less significant than previously hypothesised.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): NHMRC, NHF

Clinical and pathologic features of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in pregnancy: insights from a state-wide registry

Background

Cardiovascular disease is the most common cause of indirect maternal mortality worldwide, and cardiac arrest occurs in up to 1 in 12,000 pregnancies.

Objective

To define rates, clinical and pathologic factors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in pregnant and post-partum females.

Methods

A prospective state-wide cardiac arrest registry combining ambulance, hospital and forensic data captured all OHCAs from 2019–2021. Clinical and pathological details for pregnant patients were identified.

Results

1,482 OHCAs occurred, including 376 females of child-bearing age of whom eight were pregnant or post-partum. OHCA incidence was lower in pregnant females compared to non-pregnant females of child-bearing age (5.2 OHCAs per 100,000 pregnant females vs 23.1 per 100,000 females of child-bearing age, p&lt;0.0001). Seven patients (87.5%) died, with five (62.5%) having a cardiac cause of OHCA (unascertained = 2, cardiomyopathy = 2 (1 hypertrophic), ischemic heart disease = 1). Two patients had pre-existing cardiac risk factors, but none had a cardiac diagnosis pre-arrest. Compared to in-hospital cardiac arrests (IHCAs) in pregnancy, OHCAs are more likely to have a cardiac cause (odds ratio 3.81) and lower maternal survival (odds ratio 0.09).

Conclusion

Maternal OHCA affects approximately 1 in 20,000 pregnancies with high maternal mortality rates. OHCA occurs at one-quarter the rate in non-pregnant females of child-bearing age. Approximately two-thirds of maternal OHCAs had an underlying cardiac cause, but low rates of cardiac diagnosis pre-arrest. OHCAs differ markedly from IHCAs in pregnant females, requiring ongoing evaluation as to specific causes and preventability.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): NHMRC, NHF

Obesity in young sudden cardiac death: rates, clinical features, and insights into people with body mass index &gt;50kg/m2

Background

Obesity is common in young sudden cardiac death (SCD) victims but it is unclear whether it is more common than in the general population. This study aimed to contextualize young SCD obesity rates, identifying clinical and pathologic features in WHO class II and III obesity.

Methods

A prospective state-wide out-of-hospital cardiac arrest registry included all SCDs in Victoria, Australia from 2019–2021. Body mass indices (BMIs) of patients 18–50 years were compared to age-referenced general population. Characteristics of SCD patients with WHO Class II obesity (BMI ≥30kg/m2) and non-obesity (BMI &lt;30kg/m2) were compared. Clinical characteristics of people with BMI &gt;50kg/m2 were assessed.

Results

504 patients were included. Obesity was strongly over-represented in young SCD compared to the age-matched general population (55.0% vs 28.7%, p&lt;0.0001). Obese SCD patients more frequently had hypertension, diabetes and obstructive sleep apnoea (p&lt;0.0001, p=0.009 and p=0.001 respectively), ventricular fibrillation as their arrest rhythm (p=0.008) and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (p&lt;0.0001). Obese patients were less likely to have toxicology positive for illicit substances (22.0% vs 32.6%, p=0.008) or significant alcohol history (18.8% vs 26.9%, p=0.030). Patients with BMI &gt;50 kg/m2 represented 8.5% of young SCD. LVH (n=26, 60.5%) was their predominant cause of death and only 10 (9.3%) patients died from coronary disease.

Conclusion

Over half of young Australian SCD patients are obese, with all obesity classes over-represented compared to the general population. Obese patients had more cardiac risk factors. Almost two thirds of patients with BMI&gt;50 kg/m2 died with LVH, with fewer than 10% dying from coronary disease.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

P-581 Live birth rates in women under 38 years old with AMH level &lt; 1.2 ng/ml in in-vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection: arguments for care

Study question

To evaluate the clinical pregnancy and live birth rates in the first IVF/ICSI cycle in women under 38 years old with AMH level &lt; 1.2 ng/ml.

Summary answer

Our findings argue to propose IVF for those patients.

What is known already

Many studies failed to show a predictive impact of AMH levels on the chances of pregnancy, however acceptable pregnancy rates for young women with low AMH levels were observed in IVF/ICSI. The definition of early ovarian failure is based on two classifications, Bologna and Poseidon, where an AMH level of 1.2 ng/ml appears to be the threshold for determining ovarian failure. According to La Marca's curve, this level of 1.2 ng/ml corresponds to an ovarian reserve of a 38 year-old woman.

Study design, size, duration

The primary objective of this study was to compare the live birth rates between these three groups of women. The secondary objective was to compare the rate of positive βhCG level, clinical pregnancy rate and live birth rate in women under 38 years of age during the 1st cycle of IVF+/-ICSI, regardless of whether the AMH is &lt; 1.2 ng/ml or ≥ 1.2 ng/ml.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

We analyzed the first cycle of IVF/ICSI in women under 38 years old with AMH level &lt; 1.2 ng/ml under long GnRH agonist or GnRH antagonist protocols. We classified the women into three groups: group A: AMH &lt; 0.4 ng/ml; group B: AMH: 0.4 to 0.8 ng/ml; group C: AMH &gt; 0.8 ng/ml.

Main results and the role of chance

Between January 2017 and September 2020, we retained 227 cycles for analysis (group A: 50 cycles, B: 85 cycles and C: 92 cycles). No significant difference was found between the three groups for clinical pregnancy and live birth rates, either per stimulation cycle, oocyte puncture or embryo transfer. Thus, the birth rates per embryo transfer are 23.5% in group A, 25.4% in group B and 28.1% in group C. When we compared the two groups of women under 38 years of age during the 1st cycle of IVF+/-ICSI, according to AMH levels &lt; 1.2 ng/ml (n: 227) or ≥ 1.2 ng/ml (n: 325), the only significant difference was the positive βhCG level rate per oocyte puncture (p &lt; 0.01). Biochemical pregnancy rates were significantly different in women with AMH &lt; 1.2 ng/ml (40.8%) compared to those with AMH ≥ 1.2 ng/ml (16.6%; p &lt; 0.01), but the rate of first trimester miscarriage was identical in both groups (14.6% and 6.1% respectively).

Limitations, reasons for caution

Our retrospective study and the small sample size limited the level of scientific proof. The woman and male ages were significantly different between the AMH groups, but these data lead to reduce the impact of low AMHs on pregnancy rates.

Wider implications of the findings

The young age of the women (&lt; 38 y.o) reassures about the oocyte quality, but a low level of AMH may raise concerns about a lower quantitative oocyte yield, leading to accelerated management of the couple in IVF/ICSI.

Trial registration number

B2020CE.43

A257 PANCREATIC CANCER TREATMENT AND END OF LIFE OUTCOMES: A POPULATION BASED COHORT STUDY

Background

Patients with pancreatic cancer face challenging decisions regarding treatment choices following their diagnosis and often lack data on end-of-life (EOL) outcomes. Without the available information, older patients may be undertreated, dying earlier than they would have with treatment, while others may be overtreated and exposed to aggressive measures with harmful side effects.

Aims

To describe survival and EOL outcomes among pancreatic cancer patients based on index cancer treatment, disease stage, and patient characteristics.

Methods

We conducted a population based cohort study in Ontario, Canada of patients who died from April 2010 to December 2017 and were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer prior to death. We used administrative databases to collect data on demographics, baseline health status, treatments, and outcomes. The primary exposure was index cancer treatment (no treatment, radiation, chemotherapy alone, surgery alone, and surgery with chemotherapy). The primary outcomes were mortality, health care encounters per 30 days in the last six months of life, and palliative care visits per 30 days within the last six months of life. Secondary outcomes were location of death (institution vs. community), hospitalization within the last 30 days of life, and receipt of chemotherapy within the last 30 days of life. We estimated the association between the exposure and outcomes using multivariable models, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and cancer stage. Hazard ratios, adjusted mean differences, and odds ratios were reported with 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Our cohort included 9950 adults with a median age at diagnosis of 78. 56% received no index treatment, 5% underwent radiation, 27% underwent chemotherapy alone, 7% underwent surgery alone, and 6% underwent surgery and chemotherapy. In the multivariable regression (Table and Figure), radiation, chemotherapy alone, surgery alone, and surgery with chemotherapy were all associated with decreased mortality and fewer healthcare encounters. All groups except radiation were associated with fewer palliative care visits. All treatment groups were associated with lower odds of institutional death and hospitalization within the last 30 days of life, and higher odds of chemotherapy within the last 30 days of life.

Conclusions

Our data, the first to provide EOL outcome estimates based on index cancer treatment, can help patients make initial treatment decisions after a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer.

Multivariable regression analyses predicting primary and secondary outcomes

Funding Agencies

CIHR