Japanese value set for the EORTC QLU-C10D: A multi-attribute utility instrument based on the EORTC QLQ-C30 cancer-specific quality-of-life questionnaire

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop a Japanese value set for the EORTC QLU-C10D, a multi-attribute utility measure derived from the cancer-specific health-related quality-of-life (HRQL) questionnaire, the EORTC QLQ-C30. The QLU-C10D contains ten HRQL dimensions: physical, role, social and emotional functioning, pain, fatigue, sleep, appetite, nausea, and bowel problems.

METHODS

Quota sampling of a Japanese online panel was used to achieve representativeness of the Japanese general population by sex and age (≥ 18 years). The valuation method was an online discrete choice experiment. Each participant considered 16 choice pairs, randomly assigned from 960 choice pairs. Each pair included two QLU-C10D health states and life expectancy. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression, parameterized to fit the quality-adjusted life-year framework. Preference weights were calculated as the ratio of each dimension-level coefficient to the coefficient for life expectancy.

RESULTS

A total of 2809 eligible panel members consented, 2662/2809 (95%) completed at least one choice pair, and 2435/2662 (91%) completed all choice pairs. Within dimensions, preference weights were generally monotonic. Physical functioning, role functioning, and pain were associated with the largest utility weights. Intermediate utility weights were associated with social functioning and nausea; the remaining symptoms and emotional functioning were associated with smaller utility decrements. The value of the worst health state was - 0.221, lower than that seen in most other existing QLU-C10D country-specific value sets.

CONCLUSIONS

The Japan-specific QLU-C10D value set is suitable for evaluating the cost and utility of oncology treatments for Japanese health technology assessment and decision-making.

United States Value Set for the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General Eight Dimensions (FACT-8D), a Cancer-Specific Preference-Based Quality of Life Instrument

OBJECTIVES

To develop a value set reflecting the United States (US) general population's preferences for health states described by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT) eight-dimensions preference-based multi-attribute utility instrument (FACT-8D), derived from the FACT-General cancer-specific health-related quality-of-life (HRQL) questionnaire.

METHODS

A US online panel was quota-sampled to achieve a general population sample representative by sex, age (≥ 18 years), race and ethnicity. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was used to value health states. The valuation task involved choosing between pairs of health states (choice-sets) described by varying levels of the FACT-8D HRQL dimensions and survival (life-years). The DCE included 100 choice-sets; each respondent was randomly allocated 16 choice-sets. Data were analysed using conditional logit regression parameterized to fit the quality-adjusted life-year framework, weighted for sociodemographic variables that were non-representative of the US general population. Preference weights were calculated as the ratio of HRQL-level coefficients to the survival coefficient.

RESULTS

2562 panel members opted in, 2462 (96%) completed at least one choice-set and 2357 (92%) completed 16 choice-sets. Pain and nausea were associated with the largest utility weights, work and sleep had more moderate utility weights, and sadness, worry and support had the smallest utility weights. Within dimensions, more severe HRQL levels were generally associated with larger weights. A preference-weighting algorithm to estimate US utilities from responses to the FACT-General questionnaire was generated. The worst health state's value was -0.33.

CONCLUSIONS

This value set provides US population utilities for health states defined by the FACT-8D for use in evaluating oncology treatments.

Health workforce perceptions on telehealth augmentation opportunities

BACKGROUND

The availability and use of telehealth to support health care access from a distance has expanded in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Telehealth services have supported regional and remote health care access for many years and could be augmented to improve health care accessibility, acceptability and overall experiences for both consumers and clinicians. This study aimed to explore health workforce representatives' needs and expectations to move beyond existing telehealth models and plan for the future of virtual care.

METHODS

To inform recommendations for augmentation, semi-structured focus group discussions were held (November-December 2021). Health workforce representatives with experience in health care delivery via telehealth across country Western Australia were approached and invited to join a discussion.

RESULTS

Focus group participants included 53 health workforce representatives, with between two and eight participants per discussion. In total, 12 focus groups were conducted: seven were specific to regions, three with staff in centralised roles, and two with a mixture of participants from regional and central roles. Findings identified four key areas for telehealth augmentation: improvements required to existing service practice and processes; equity and access considerations; health workforce-focussed opportunities; and consumer-focussed opportunities.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the rapid increase in health services delivered via telehealth modalities, it is timely to explore opportunities to augment pre-existing models of care. Workforce representatives consulted in this study suggested modifications to existing process and practice that would improve the current models of care, and recommendations on ways to improve clinician and consumer experiences with telehealth. Improving experiences with virtual delivery of health care is likely to support continued use and acceptance of this modality in health care delivery.

Dutch Nationwide Implementation Program for familial hypercholesterolemia case finding in children: a cost-effectiveness and return on investment analysis

Background

The Netherlands is one of the few countries in the world that actively screen for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH).

Objectives

We investigated the return on investment (ROI) and cost-effectiveness of the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and preventive treatment in children compared to later detection and treatment from both a societal and healthcare perspective in the Netherlands.

Methods

Cascade case finding and early preventive treatment were modelled to simulate the progression of disease and costs of ten-year-olds suspected of having heterozygous FH (HeFH) over a lifetime. The model consisted of three health states: alive without coronary heart disease (CHD), alive with CHD, and dead. The decision was to compare the nationwide implementation program for FH cascade case-finding in children and immediate treatment with statins compared to “usual care” later detection and treatment. The prevalence of HeFH in this target population was 51.2% as per the Dutch Health Program for FH case-finding, and the sensitivity and specificity of testing was 100%. Contemporary Mendelian Randomisation Analysis data was used to quantify the risk of a first coronary heart disease event as a function of age and total lifetime exposure to low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol. Costs and outcome were sourced from the Dutch data and other published sources. ROI for the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and cost-effectiveness analyses using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) (cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained), compared with current usual care were the main outcomes of interest. All future benefits and costs were discounted annually by 1.5% and 4% respectively.

Results

Over the lifetime horizon, the ROI for the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding was €16.52 (i.e. every euro spent on the program resulted in a return of €16.52). From the societal perspective, the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and early treatment with statins was the dominant strategy (health improvement and cost saving) compared to usual care. From a healthcare perspective, the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and early treatment with statins would gain 2.64 QALYs per person, at an additional cost of €7,178 (both discounted). These equated to an ICER of €2,668 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

From the societal perspective, the the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding represented excellent value for investment for Netherlands, being not only health saving but also cost saving form a societal perspective and cost effective from a healthcare perspective.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Pregnancy rates and outcomes in women with cystic fibrosis in the UK: comparisons with the general population before and after the introduction of disease-modifying treatment, 2003-17

OBJECTIVE

To compare pregnancy rates and outcomes for women with cystic fibrosis in the UK with those of the general population and assess the effect of the introduction of disease-modifying treatment.

DESIGN

A population-based longitudinal study, 2003-17.

SETTING

United Kingdom.

POPULATION

Women aged 15-44 years in the UK cystic fibrosis (CF) Registry compared with women in England and Wales.

METHODS

We calculated pregnancy and live-birth rates for the CF population and the general population of England and Wales. For women with CF we compared pregnancy rates before and after ivacaftor was introduced in 2013. We further used CF registry data to assess pregnancy outcomes for mothers with CF, and to assess the relationship between maternal pre-pregnancy lung function and nutritional status and child gestational age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Pregnancy and live-birth rates and child gestational age.

RESULTS

Of 3831 women with CF, 661 reported 818 pregnancies. Compared with the general population, the pregnancy rate was 3.3 times lower in the CF population (23.5 versus 77.7 per 1000 woman-years); the live-birth rate was 3.5 times lower (17.4 versus 61.4 per 1000 woman-years) with 70% of pregnancies in CF women resulting in live births; termination of pregnancy rates were also lower (9% versus 22%). Pregnancy rates increased post-ivacaftor for eligible women with CF, from 29.7 to 45.7 per 1000 woman-years. There was no association between pre-pregnancy lung function/nutrition status and gestational age.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy rates in women with CF are about one-third of the rates in the general population with favourable outcomes, and increased for eligible women post-ivacaftor.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Pregnancy rates in women with CF are about a third of the rate in England and Wales with 70% live births. Ivacaftor increases the rate.

O-233 Micronized progesterone plus dydrogesterone versus micronized progesterone alone for luteal phase support in frozen-thawed cycles: a prospective cohort study

Study question

Does the addition of oral dydrogesterone to vaginal progesterone as luteal phase support improve pregnancy outcomes during frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles compared with vaginal progesterone alone?

Summary answer

Luteal phase support with oral dydrogesterone added to vaginal progesterone improves live birth rates and reduces miscarriage rates compared with vaginal progesterone alone.

What is known already

Progesterone is an important hormone that triggers secretory transformation of the endometrium to allow implantation of the embryo. During in vitro fertilization (IVF), exogenous progesterone is administered for luteal phase support. However, there is wide inter-individual variation in absorption of progesterone via the vaginal wall. Oral dydrogesterone is effective and well tolerated when used to provide luteal phase support after fresh embryo transfer. However, there are currently no data on the effectiveness of luteal phase support with the combination of dydrogesterone with vaginal micronized progesterone compared with vaginal micronized progesterone after FET.

Study design, size, duration

Prospective cohort study conducted at an academic infertility center in Vietnam from 26 June 2019 to 30 March 2020.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

We studied 1364 women undergoing IVF with FET. The luteal support regimen was either vaginal micronized progesterone 400 mg twice daily plus oral dydrogesterone 10 mg twice daily (second part of the study) or vaginal micronized progesterone 400 mg twice daily (first 4 months of the study). The primary endpoint was live birth after the first FET of the started cycle, with miscarriage <12 weeks as one of the secondary endpoints.

Main results and the role of chance

The vaginal progesterone + dydrogesterone group and vaginal progesterone groups included 732 and 632 participants, respectively. Live birth rates were 46.3% versus 41.3%, respectively (rate ratio [RR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99–1.27, p = 0.06; multivariate analysis RR 1.30 (95% CI 1.01–1.68), p = 0.042), with a statistically significant lower rate of miscarriage at < 12 weeks (3.4% vs 6.6%; RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32–0.83; p = 0.009). Birth weight of both singletons (2971.0 ± 628.4 vs. 3118.8 ± 559.2 g; p = 0.004) and twins (2175.5 ± 494.8 vs. 2494.2 ± 584.7; p = 0.002) was significantly lower in the progesterone plus dydrogesterone versus progesterone group.

Limitations, reasons for caution

The study were the open-label design and the non-randomized nature of the sequential administration of study treatments. However, our systematic comparison of the two strategies was able to be performed much more rapidly than a conventional randomized controlled trial. In addition, the single ethnicity population limits external generalizability.

Wider implications of the findings

Oral dydrogesterone in addition to vaginal progesterone as luteal phase support in FET cycles can reduce the miscarriage rate and improve the live birth rate. Carefully planned prospective cohort studies with limited bias could be used as an alternative to randomized controlled clinical trials to inform clinical practice.

Trial registration number

NCT03998761

Health economic evaluation of screening and treating children with familial hypercholesterolemia early in life: many happy returns on investment?

Background

There are no studies that have specifically investigated the cost-effectiveness of cascade screening of children for heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) and treatment of affected individuals with statins to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD).

Purpose

This study explores the cost-effectiveness of this strategy from the perspective of the Australian public healthcare system.

Methods

A lifetime Markov model with four health states (Alive without CHD, Alive with CHD, Dead from fatal CHD, and Dead from other causes) was developed to simulate the progression of ten- year-old children screened for FH and treated immediately with statins if found to have FH. The underlying prevalence of FH in this target population was assumed to be 56.8%, and the sensitivity and specificity of testing was 100%. The comparator was usual care, which assumed that subjects started statins spontaneously at a later point or when they experienced a cardiovascular event. The effect of reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on the risk of a first event at each age assumed that risk was proportional to total lifetime exposure and was implemented using Mendelian randomisation analysis data. Cost and other outcome data were sourced from published sources. Outcome of interests were costs in Australian dollars (AUD), life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of costs per LYG and per QALY gained. All future costs and outcomes were discounted by 5% annually.

Results

Undiscounted results showed that compared with usual care, cascade screening of ten year-old children for FH and initiation of treatment of affected individuals saved 7.77 LYG and 7.53 QALYs per person over a lifetime. With 5% annual discounting, there were 0.97 LYG and 1.07 QALYs gained per person, at an additional cost of $3,244. These equated to ICERs of $3334 per LYG and $3023 per QALY gained. The equivalent ICERs in USD would be $5089 per LYG gained and $4615 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis showed the results to be robust.

Conclusions

Compared to usual care, cascade screening of ten year old children for FH and treating affected individuals is likely to be highly cost-effective.

Table 1. Granular cost and benefit data

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Enhanced Dispersion and Mechanical Behavior of Polypropylene Composites Compounded Using Extension-Dominated Extrusion

The process of dispersing filler in polymer matrix is vital to the behavior of polymer composites. The current study involves understanding the extent of dispersion of filler by only varying the nature of mixing during the process. Identical polymer composite materials are processed via two different kinds of mixing sections on the screw in a twin-screw extruder, differing in the type and amount of stress they impose on the filler agglomerate. An aggressive (900) Kneading Block (KB) mixing section is compared with recently developed Extensional Mixing Elements (EMEs), which impart extension dominated mixing while KB imparts shear dominated mixing. Various EME geometries of different levels of aggressiveness were computationally studied and validated. Composites obtained from KB are compared with composites processed using five different EME geometries. Three composites of Polypropylene (PP) filled with carbon black, graphene nano platelets and carbon nanotubes were studied independently. Composites processed through EMEs display about an order of magnitude better dispersion of filler agglomerate over the composites processed through KB. In addition, enhanced modulus and yield stress is observed for composites processed through EMEs. An improvement of 63% to 266% in the strain achieved for EME processed composites is seen under biaxial film stretching.

Does this lung nodule need urgent review? A discrete choice experiment of Australian general practitioners

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in Australia. Guidelines suggest that patients with suspected lung cancer on thoracic imaging be referred for urgent specialist review. However, the term "suspected" is broad and includes the common finding of lung nodules, which often require periodic surveillance rather than urgent invasive investigation. The British Thoracic Society recommends that a lung nodule with a PanCan risk > 10% be considered for invasive investigation. This study aimed to assess which factors influence general practitioners (GPs) to request urgent review for a lung nodule and if these factors concur with PanCan risk prediction model variables.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment was developed that produced 32 individual case vignettes. Each vignette contained eight variables, four of which form the parsimonious PanCan risk prediction model. Two additional vignettes were created that addressed haemoptysis with a normal chest computed tomography (CT) scan and isolated mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The survey was distributed to 4160 randomly selected Australian GPs and they were asked if the patients in the vignettes required urgent (less than two weeks) specialist review. Multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with request for urgent review.

RESULTS

Completed surveys were received from 3.7% of participants, providing 152 surveys (1216 case vignettes) for analysis. The factors associated with request for urgent review were nodule spiculation (adj-OR 5.57, 95% CI 3.88-7.99, p < 0.0001), larger nodule size, presentation with haemoptysis (adj-OR 4.79, 95% CI 3.05-7.52, p < 0.0001) or weight loss (adj-OR 4.87, 95% CI 3.13-7.59, p < 0.0001), recommendation for urgent review by the reporting radiologist (adj-OR 4.68, 95% CI 2.86-7.65, p < 0.0001) and female GP gender (adj-OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.36-2.56, p 0.0001). In low risk lung nodules (PanCan risk < 10%), there was significant variability in perceived sense of urgency. Most GPs (83%) felt that a patient with haemoptysis and a normal chest CT scan did not require urgent specialist review but that a patient with isolated mediastinal lymphadenopathy did (75%).

CONCLUSION

Future lung cancer investigation pathways may benefit from the addition of a risk prediction model to reduce variations in referral behavior for low risk lung nodules.

Short duration of untreated psychosis enhances negative symptom remission in extended early intervention service for psychosis

OBJECTIVE

To test whether duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) < 3 months, recommended by the World Health Organization/International Early Psychosis Association, enhances the effects of an extended early intervention service (EEIS) on symptom remission.

METHOD

We examined data from a randomized controlled trial in which patients who received 2 years of treatment in EIS for psychosis were subsequently randomized to either 3 years of EEIS or 3 years of regular care (RC). Using a DUP cut-off ≤ 12 weeks (approximately < 3 months), patients were split into two groups. Length of positive, negative and total symptom remission were the outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients (N = 217) were mostly male (68%) with schizophrenia spectrum disorder (65%); 108 (50%) received EEIS (58 had DUP ≤12 weeks; 50 had DUP >12 weeks). Interaction between treatment condition (EEIS vs. RC) and DUP cut-off ≤ 12 weeks was only significant in multiple linear regression model examining length of negative symptom remission as the outcome (adjusted β = 36.88 [SE = 15.88], t = 2.32, P = 0.02). EEIS patients with DUP ≤12 weeks achieved 25 more weeks of negative symptom remission than EEIS patients with DUP >12 weeks.

CONCLUSION

Having a short DUP may be critical in deriving long-term benefits from EIS for psychosis, including EEIS settings. This work empirically supports policy recommendations of reducing DUP <3 months.

The Future Excess Fraction of Cancer Attributable to High Body Mass Index in Australia

Background: High body mass index (BMI > 25 kg/m2) has been found to be associated with an increased risk of many cancers, including cancers of the colon and rectum, liver, and pancreas. Aim: This study aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer resulting from current levels of overweight and obesity in Australia. Methods: The future excess fraction method was used to estimate the future burden of cancer among the proportion of the Australian adult population who were overweight or obese in 2016. Calculations were conducted for 13 cancer types, including cancers of the colon, rectum, kidney, and liver. Results: The cohort of 18.7 million adult Australians in 2016 will develop ∼7.6 million cancers over their lifetime. Of these, ∼402,500 cancers (5.3%) will be attributable to current levels of overweight and obese. The majority of these will be postmenopausal breast cancers (n = 72,300), kidney cancers (n = 59,200), and colon cancers (n = 55,100). More than a quarter of future endometrial cancers (30.3%) and esophageal adenocarcinomas (35.8%) will be attributable to high body mass index. Conclusion: A significant proportion of future cancers will result from current levels of high body mass index. Our estimates are not directly comparable to past estimates of the burden from overweight and obesity because they describe different quantities - future cancers in currently exposed vs current cancers due to past exposures. The results of this study provide us with relevant up-to-date information about how many cancers in Australia could be prevented.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander 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Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.