Prognostic factors and predictors of sorafenib benefit in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of two phase III studies

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sorafenib, an oral multikinase inhibitor, significantly prolonged overall survival (OS) vs. placebo in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in two phase III studies, SHARP (Sorafenib HCC Assessment Randomized Protocol) and Asia Pacific (AP). To assess prognostic factors for HCC and predictive factors of sorafenib benefit, we conducted a pooled exploratory analysis from these placebo-controlled phase III studies.

METHODS

To identify potential prognostic factors for OS, univariate and multivariate (MV) analyses were performed for baseline variables by Cox proportional hazards model. Hazard ratios (HRs) and median OS were evaluated across pooled subgroups. To assess factors predictive of sorafenib benefit, the interaction term between treatment for each subgroup was evaluated by Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

In 827 patients (448 sorafenib; 379 placebo) analyzed, strong prognostic factors for poorer OS identified from MV analysis in both treatment arms were presence of macroscopic vascular invasion (MVI), high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; ⩽ vs. >median [3.1]). Sorafenib OS benefit was consistently observed across all subgroups. Significantly greater OS sorafenib benefit vs. placebo was observed in patients without extrahepatic spread (EHS; HR, 0.55 vs. 0.84), with hepatitis C virus (HCV) (HR, 0.47 vs. 0.81), and a low NLR (HR, 0.59 vs. 0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

In this exploratory analysis, presence of MVI, high AFP, and high NLR were prognostic factors of poorer OS. Sorafenib benefit was consistently observed irrespective of prognostic factors. Lack of EHS, HCV, and lower NLR were predictive of a greater OS benefit with sorafenib.

LAY SUMMARY

This exploratory pooled analysis showed that treatment with sorafenib provides a survival benefit in all subgroups of patients with HCC; however, the magnitude of benefit is greater in patients with disease confined to the liver (without extrahepatic spread), or in those with hepatitis C virus, or a lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, an indicator of inflammation status. These results help inform the prognosis of patients receiving sorafenib therapy and provide further refinements for the design of trials testing new agents vs. sorafenib. Clinical Trial Numbers: NCT00105443 and NCT00492752.

Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement

CONTEXT

Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed.

OBJECTIVE

The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document.

CONCLUSIONS

To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org).

PATIENT SUMMARY

The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes.

Prospective multicentre evaluation of PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG gene fusions as diagnostic and prognostic urinary biomarkers for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) and v-ets erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene homolog (TMPRSS2-ERG) gene fusions are promising prostate cancer (PCa) specific biomarkers that can be measured in urine.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of Progensa PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG gene fusions (as individual biomarkers and as a panel) for PCa in a prospective multicentre setting.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

At six centres, post-digital rectal examination first-catch urine specimens prior to prostate biopsies were prospectively collected from 497 men. We assessed the predictive value of Progensa PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG (quantitative nucleic acid amplification assay to detect TMPRSS2-ERG messenger RNA [mRNA]) for PCa, Gleason score, clinical tumour stage, and PCa significance (individually and as a marker panel). This was compared with serum prostate-specific antigen and the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator. In a subgroup (n=61) we evaluated biomarker association with prostatectomy outcome.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating curves were used.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Urine samples of 443 men contained sufficient mRNA for marker analysis. PCa was diagnosed in 196 of 443 men. Both PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG had significant additional predictive value to the ERSPC risk calculator parameters in multivariate analysis (p<0.001 and resp. p=0.002). The area under the curve (AUC) increased from 0.799 (ERSPC risk calculator), to 0.833 (ERSPC risk calculator plus PCA3), to 0.842 (ERSPC risk calculator plus PCA3 plus TMPRSS2-ERG) to predict PCa. Sensitivity of PCA3 increased from 68% to 76% when combined with TMPRSS2-ERG. TMPRSS2-ERG added significant predictive value to the ERSPC risk calculator to predict biopsy Gleason score (p<0.001) and clinical tumour stage (p=0.023), whereas PCA3 did not.

CONCLUSIONS

TMPRSS2-ERG had independent additional predictive value to PCA3 and the ERSPC risk calculator parameters for predicting PCa. TMPRSS2-ERG had prognostic value, whereas PCA3 did not. Implementing the novel urinary biomarker panel PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG into clinical practice would lead to a considerable reduction of the number of prostate biopsies.

Prognostic biomarkers in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI)

Background

Currently, there is no single validated biomarker which can prognosticate survival in patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study examines the prognostic significance of four biomarkers: neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI) in patients with stage IV NSCLC.

Methods

This study aimed to establish the relationship between NLR, LMR, PLR, ALI and overall survival (OS) at baseline and post first cycle of treatment using Cox univariate PH models. We also studied these biomarkers in the elderly (age ≥70 years). Clinical data was sourced from Calvary Mater Newcastle between 2010 and 2015.

Results

Baseline NLR, PLR, LMR and ALI showed strong association with OS. Five unit increase in NLR and PLR was associated with an 11% and 0.5% increase in the hazard of death respectively while 1 unit increase in ALI resulted in 4% increase in hazard of death. Five unit increase in LMR was associated with a 50% reduction in hazard of death. Post-treatment NLR and low ALI correlated with shorter OS but no statistically significant relationship could be demonstrated for PLR nor LMR. Similar prognostic trends were noted for elderly.

Conclusions

High NLR, high PLR, low LMR and low ALI at baseline are significantly associated with poor OS. High NLR and low ALI are significantly associated with poor OS post treatment. Findings are similar regardless of age.

The prognostic value of PD-L1 expression for non-small cell lung cancer patients: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the much-debated relationship between the gene expression of programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and cancer patient prognosis. The prognostic value of measuring PD-L1 expression in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients was analyzed.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for studies about the relationship between PD-L1 expression and NSCLC patient prognosis. Only studies with patient survival data related to PD-L1 expression in NSCLC patients with different characteristics were included. The effect size (ES) for this analysis was the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Six studies with 1157 patients were included with the defined including and excluding criteria. There is no significant heterogeneity among the studies (I(2) = 0%, p = 0.683). PD-L1 expression was significantly associated with the differentiation of tumor (poor vs. well: OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.33-2.75, p = 0.001). High PD-L1 expression was also correlated with poor prognosis in terms of the OS of patients with NSCLC (pooled HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 140-2.20, p < 0.001; heterogeneity test: I(2) = 0%, p = 0.643).

CONCLUSIONS

NSCLC patients with positive PD-L1 expression exhibited poor OS. The PD-L1 expression was higher in tumors with poor differentiation.

Metabolomic Identification of Subtypes of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a consequence of defects in diverse metabolic pathways that involve hepatic accumulation of triglycerides. Features of these aberrations might determine whether NAFLD progresses to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We investigated whether the diverse defects observed in patients with NAFLD are caused by different NAFLD subtypes with specific serum metabolomic profiles, and whether these can distinguish patients with NASH from patients with simple steatosis.

METHODS

We collected liver and serum from methionine adenosyltransferase 1a knockout (MAT1A-KO) mice, which have chronically low levels of hepatic S-adenosylmethionine (SAMe) and spontaneously develop steatohepatitis, as well as C57Bl/6 mice (controls); the metabolomes of all samples were determined. We also analyzed serum metabolomes of 535 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD (353 with simple steatosis and 182 with NASH) and compared them with serum metabolomes of mice. MAT1A-KO mice were also given SAMe (30 mg/kg/day for 8 weeks); liver samples were collected and analyzed histologically for steatohepatitis.

RESULTS

Livers of MAT1A-KO mice were characterized by high levels of triglycerides, diglycerides, fatty acids, ceramides, and oxidized fatty acids, as well as low levels of SAMe and downstream metabolites. There was a correlation between liver and serum metabolomes. We identified a serum metabolomic signature associated with MAT1A-KO mice that also was present in 49% of the patients; based on this signature, we identified 2 NAFLD subtypes. We identified specific panels of markers that could distinguish patients with NASH from patients with simple steatosis for each subtype of NAFLD. Administration of SAMe reduced features of steatohepatitis in MAT1A-KO mice.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of serum metabolomes of patients with NAFLD and MAT1A-KO mice with steatohepatitis, we identified 2 major subtypes of NAFLD and markers that differentiate steatosis from NASH in each subtype. These might be used to monitor disease progression and identify therapeutic targets for patients.

Understanding the role of primary tumour localisation in colorectal cancer treatment and outcomes

Metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) is a heterogeneous disease with differing outcomes and clinical responses and poor prognosis. CRCs can be characterised by their primary tumour location within the colon. The left-sided colon, derived from the hindgut, includes the distal third of the transverse colon, splenic flexure, descending colon, sigmoid colon and rectum. The right-sided colon, derived from the midgut, includes the proximal two-thirds of the transverse colon, ascending colon and caecum. Sometimes, the rectum is described separately, despite originating from the hindgut, and in many clinical series, the left-sided colon includes only tumours within and distal to the splenic flexure. Differences in the microbiome, clinical characteristics and chromosomal and molecular characteristics have been reported between the right and left side of the colon, regardless of how this is defined. There is now strong evidence from clinical studies in patients with mCRC for the prognostic effect of primary tumour location. The impact of primary colonic tumour location on response to treatment is now under investigation in a large number of clinical studies in patients with mCRC. In this review, we summarise the microbiome, clinical, chromosomal and molecular differences associated with the primary location of CRC. We present an overview of the proven prognostic impact of primary tumour location for patients with mCRC and discuss emerging data for the predictive impact of primary tumour location on clinical outcome.

Genomic Markers in Prostate Cancer Decision Making

CONTEXT

Although the widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has led to an early detection of prostate cancer (PCa) and a reduction of metastatic disease at diagnosis, PSA remains one of the most controversial biomarkers due to its limited specificity. As part of emerging efforts to improve both detection and management decision making, a number of new genomic tools have recently been developed.

OBJECTIVE

This review summarizes the ability of genomic biomarkers to recognize men at high risk of developing PCa, discriminate clinically insignificant and aggressive tumors, and facilitate the selection of therapies in patients with advanced disease.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A PubMed-based literature search was conducted up to May 2017. We selected the most recent and relevant original articles and clinical trials that have provided indispensable information to guide treatment decisions.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Genome-wide association studies have identified several genetic polymorphisms and inherited variants associated with PCa susceptibility. Moreover, the urine-based assays SelectMDx, Mi-Prostate Score, and ExoDx have provided new insights into the identification of patients who may benefit from prostate biopsy. In men with previous negative pathological findings, Prostate Cancer Antigen 3 and ConfirmMDx predicted the outcome of subsequent biopsy. Commercially available tools (Decipher, Oncotype DX, and Prolaris) improved PCa risk stratification, identifying men at the highest risk of adverse outcome. Furthermore, other biomarkers could assist in treatment selection in castration-resistant PCa. AR-V7 expression predicts resistance to abiraterone/enzalutamide, while poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 inhibitor and platinum-based chemotherapy could be indicated in metastatic patients who are carriers of mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes.

CONCLUSIONS

Introduction of genomic biomarkers has dramatically improved the detection, prognosis, and risk evaluation of PCa. Despite the progress made in discovering suitable biomarker candidates, few have been used in a clinical setting. Large-scale and multi-institutional studies are required to validate the efficacy and cost utility of these new technologies.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Prostate cancer is a heterogeneous disease with a wide variability. Genomic biomarkers in combination with clinical and pathological variables are useful tools to reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies, stratify low-risk from high-risk tumors, and guide personalized treatment decisions.

PSA and beyond: alternative prostate cancer biomarkers

BACKGROUND

The use of biomarkers for prostate cancer screening, diagnosis and prognosis has the potential to improve the clinical management of the patients. Owing to inherent limitations of the biomarker prostate-specific antigen (PSA), intensive efforts are currently directed towards a search for alternative prostate cancer biomarkers, particularly those that can predict disease aggressiveness and drive better treatment decisions.

METHODS

A literature search of Medline articles focused on recent and emerging advances in prostate cancer biomarkers was performed. The most promising biomarkers that have the potential to meet the unmet clinical needs in prostate cancer patient management and/or that are clinically implemented were selected.

CONCLUSIONS

With the advent of advanced genomic and proteomic technologies, we have in recent years seen an enormous spurt in prostate cancer biomarker research with several promising alternative biomarkers being discovered that show an improved sensitivity and specificity over PSA. The new generation of biomarkers can be tested via serum, urine, or tissue-based assays that have either received regulatory approval by the US Food and Drug Administration or are available as Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments-based laboratory developed tests. Additional emerging novel biomarkers for prostate cancer, including circulating tumor cells, microRNAs and exosomes, are still in their infancy. Together, these biomarkers provide actionable guidance for prostate cancer risk assessment, and are expected to lead to an era of personalized medicine.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Noninvasive Fibrosis Models to Detect Change in Fibrosis Stage

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Noninvasive methods are needed to determine disease stage in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We evaluated the diagnostic performance of several widely available fibrosis models for the assessment of hepatic fibrosis in patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from individuals enrolled in the NIDDK NASH Clinical Research Network, from 2004 through 2018. Using biopsy as the reference standard, we determined the diagnostic performance of the aspartate aminotransferase (AST):platelet ratio (APRI), FIB-4, ratio of AST:alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in a cross-sectional study of 1904 subjects. The ability of these models to detect changes in fibrosis stage was assessed in a longitudinal data set of 292 subjects with 2 biopsies and accompanying laboratory data. Outcomes were detection of fibrosis of any stage (stages 0-4), detection of moderate fibrosis (stages 0-1 vs 2-4), and detection of advanced fibrosis (stages 0-2 vs 3-4). Diagnostic performance was evaluated using the C-statistic, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) analyses.

RESULTS

In the cross-sectional study, FIB-4 and NFS outperformed other non-invasive models for detecting advanced fibrosis; the C-statistics were 0.80 for FIB-4 and 0.78 for NFS. In the longitudinal study, 216 patients had non-advanced fibrosis at baseline and 35 patients progressed to advanced fibrosis after median follow up of 2.6 years. After we adjusted for fibrosis stage and model score at initial biopsy, change in APRI, FIB-4, and NFS were significantly associated with change in fibrosis. A unit change in APRI, FIB-4, or NFS was associated with changes in fibrosis stage of 0.33 (95% CI, 0.20-0.45; P < .001), 0.26 (95% CI, 0.15-0.37; P < .001), and 0.19 (95% CI, 0.07-0.31; P = .002), respectively. The cross-validated C-statistic for detecting progression to advanced fibrosis for APRI was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.89), for FIB-4 was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73-0.81), and for NFS was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.71-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

In a combined analysis of data from 2 large studies, we found that FIB-4, APRI, and NFS can detect advanced fibrosis and fibrosis progression in patients with NAFLD.

Genomic Predictors of Outcome in Prostate Cancer

CONTEXT

Given the highly variable behavior and clinical course of prostate cancer (PCa) and the multiple available treatment options, a personalized approach to oncologic risk stratification is important. Novel genetic approaches offer additional information to improve clinical decision making.

OBJECTIVE

To review the use of genomic biomarkers in the prognostication of PCa outcome and prediction of therapeutic response.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Systematic literature review focused on human clinical studies reporting outcome measures with external validation. The literature search included all Medline, Embase, and Scopus articles from inception through July 2014.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

An improved understanding of the genetic basis of prostate carcinogenesis has produced an increasing number of potential prognostic and predictive tools, such as transmembrane protease, serine2:v-ets avian erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene homolog (TMPRSS2:ERG) gene fusion status, loss of the phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) gene, and gene expression signatures utilizing messenger RNA from tumor tissue. Several commercially available gene panels with external validation are now available, although most have yet to be widely used. The most studied commercially available gene panels, Prolaris, Oncotype DX Genomic Prostate Score, and Decipher, may be used to estimate disease outcome in addition to clinical parameters or clinical nomograms. ConfirmMDx is an epigenetic test used to predict the results of repeat prostate biopsy after an initial negative biopsy. Additional future strategies include using genetic information from circulating tumor cells in the peripheral blood to guide treatment decisions at the initial diagnosis and at subsequent decision points.

CONCLUSIONS

Major advances have been made in our understanding of PCa biology in recent years. Our field is currently exploring the early stages of a personalized approach to augment traditional clinical decision making using commercially available genomic tools. A more comprehensive appreciation of value, limitations, and cost is important.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We summarized current advances in genomic testing in prostate cancer with a special focus on the estimation of disease outcome. Several commercial tests are currently available, but further understanding is needed to appreciate the potential benefits and limitations of these novel tests.

H3-/IDH-wild type pediatric glioblastoma is comprised of molecularly and prognostically distinct subtypes with associated oncogenic drivers

Pediatric glioblastoma (pedGBM) is an extremely aggressive pediatric brain tumor, accounting for ~6% of all central nervous system neoplasms in children. Approximately half of pedGBM harbor recurrent somatic mutations in histone 3 variants or, infrequently, IDH1/2. The remaining subset of pedGBM is highly heterogeneous, and displays a variety of genomic and epigenetic features. In the current study, we aimed to further stratify an H3-/IDH-wild type (wt) pedGBM cohort assessed through genome-wide molecular profiling. As a result, we identified three molecular subtypes of these tumors, differing in their genomic and epigenetic signatures as well as in their clinical behavior. We designated these subtypes 'pedGBM_MYCN' (enriched for MYCN amplification), 'pedGBM_RTK1' (enriched for PDGFRA amplification) and 'pedGBM_RTK2' (enriched for EGFR amplification). These molecular subtypes were associated with significantly different outcomes, i.e. pedGBM_RTK2 tumors show a significantly longer survival time (median OS 44 months), pedGBM_MYCN display extremely poor outcomes (median OS 14 months), and pedGBM_RTK1 tumors harbor an intermediate prognosis. In addition, the various molecular subtypes of H3-/IDH-wt pedGBM were clearly distinguishable from their adult counterparts, underlining their biological distinctiveness. In conclusion, our study demonstrates significant molecular heterogeneity of H3-/IDH-wt pedGBM in terms of DNA methylation and cytogenetic alterations. The recognition of three molecular subtypes of H3-/IDH-wt pedGBM further revealed close correlations with biological parameters and clinical outcomes and may therefore, be predictive of response to standard treatment protocols, but could also be useful for stratification for novel, molecularly based therapies.

Identification of a novel glycolysis-related gene signature for predicting metastasis and survival in patients with lung adenocarcinoma

Background

Lung cancer (LC) is one of the most lethal and most prevalent malignant tumors, and its incidence and mortality are increasing annually. Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the most common pathological type of lung cancer. Several biomarkers have been confirmed by data excavation to be related to metastasis, prognosis and survival. However, the moderate predictive effect of a single gene biomarker is not sufficient. Thus, we aimed to identify new gene signatures to better predict the possibility of LUAD.

Methods

Using an mRNA-mining approach, we performed mRNA expression profiling in large LUAD cohorts (n = 522) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) was performed, and connections between genes and glycolysis were found in the Cox proportional regression model.

Results

We confirmed a set of nine genes (HMMR, B4GALT1, SLC16A3, ANGPTL4, EXT1, GPC1, RBCK1, SOD1, and AGRN) that were significantly associated with metastasis and overall survival (OS) in the test series. Based on this nine-gene signature, the patients in the test series could be divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. Additionally, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the prognostic power of the nine-gene signature is independent of clinical factors.

Conclusion

Our study reveals a connection between the nine-gene signature and glycolysis. This research also provides novel insights into the mechanisms underlying glycolysis and offers a novel biomarker of a poor prognosis and metastasis for LUAD patients.

Development and Validation of a Simplified Magnetic Resonance Index of Activity for Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The magnetic resonance index of activity (MARIA) for Crohn's disease (CD) is used to assess the activity of luminal CD. However, it has a number of practical limitations. We aimed to develop and validate a simplified MARIA to more easily and quickly assess CD activity and response to therapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of magnetic resonance imaging data from 98 participants in 2 studies. We used logistic regression analysis to identify magnetic resonance imaging parameters independently associated with CD endoscopic index of severity (CDEIS) scores (the reference standard). We validated the responsiveness and reliability of the simplified MARIA in an independent cohort of 37 patients who underwent magnetic resonance imaging and endoscopy before and after a therapeutic intervention.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis showed that dichotomous qualitative assessment of wall thickening (>3 mm), presence of mural edema, perienteric fat stranding, and ulcers were independently associated with CDEIS scores; we used these factors to create a simplified MARIA. Simplified MARIA scores greater than 1 identified segments with active CD with 90% sensitivity and 81% specificity (area under the curve 0.91; 95% confidence interval 0.88-0.94). Simplified MARIA scores of 2 or more detected severe lesions (ulcers) with 85% sensitivity and 92% specificity (area under the curve 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.91-0.96). For each patient, there was a high level of correlation between simplified MARIA scores and CDEIS scores (r = 0.83) and simplified MARIA scores and original MARIA scores (and r = 0.93) (P < .001). The simplified MARIA score accurately detected changes in lesion severity in response to therapy and was as reliable as endoscopy for the assessment of mucosal healing.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a simplified MARIA for easier and faster assessment of CD activity and severity. This index identifies patients with a response to therapy with a high level of accuracy. These findings require confirmation in independent, multireader studies.

Biomarkers in prostate cancer - Current clinical utility and future perspectives

Current tendencies in the treatment course of prostate cancer patients increase the need for reliable biomarkers that help in decision-making in a challenging clinical setting. Within the last decade, several novel biomarkers have been introduced. In the following comprehensive review article, we focus on diagnostic (PHI^®, 4K score, SelectMDx^®, ConfirmMDx^®, PCA3, MiPS, ExoDX^®, mpMRI) and prognostic (OncotypeDX GPS^®, Prolaris^®, ProMark^®, DNA-ploidy, Decipher^®) biomarkers that are in widespread clinical use and are supported by evidence. Hereby, we focus on multiple clinical situations in which innovative biomarkers may guide decision-making in prostate cancer therapy. In addition, we describe novel liquid biopsy approaches (circulating tumor cells, cell-free DNA) that have been described as predictive biomarkers in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer and might support an individual patient-centred oncological approach in the nearer future.

A hypoxia-related signature for clinically predicting diagnosis, prognosis and immune microenvironment of hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

Hypoxia plays an indispensable role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, there are few studies on the application of hypoxia molecules in the prognosis predicting of HCC. We aim to identify the hypoxia-related genes in HCC and construct reliable models for diagnosis, prognosis and recurrence of HCC patients as well as exploring the potential mechanism.

METHODS

Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) analysis was performed using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and four clusters were determined by a consistent clustering analysis. Three DEGs closely related to overall survival (OS) were identified using Cox regression and LASSO analysis. Then the hypoxia-related signature was developed and validated in TCGA and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database. The Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) was performed to explore signaling pathways regulated by the signature. CIBERSORT was used for estimating the fractions of immune cell types.

RESULTS

A total of 397 hypoxia-related DEGs in HCC were detected and three genes (PDSS1, CDCA8 and SLC7A11) among them were selected to construct a prognosis, recurrence and diagnosis model. Then patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Our hypoxia-related signature was significantly associated with worse prognosis and higher recurrence rate. The diagnostic model also accurately distinguished HCC from normal samples and nodules. Furthermore, the hypoxia-related signature could positively regulate immune response. Meanwhile, the high-risk group had higher fractions of macrophages, B memory cells and follicle-helper T cells, and exhibited higher expression of immunocheckpoints such as PD1and PDL1.

CONCLUSIONS

Altogether, our study showed that hypoxia-related signature is a potential biomarker for diagnosis, prognosis and recurrence of HCC, and it provided an immunological perspective for developing personalized therapies.

Molecularly defined diffuse leptomeningeal glioneuronal tumor (DLGNT) comprises two subgroups with distinct clinical and genetic features

Diffuse leptomeningeal glioneuronal tumors (DLGNT) represent rare CNS neoplasms which have been included in the 2016 update of the WHO classification. The wide spectrum of histopathological and radiological features can make this enigmatic tumor entity difficult to diagnose. In recent years, large-scale genomic and epigenomic analyses have afforded insight into key genetic alterations occurring in multiple types of brain tumors and provide unbiased, complementary tools to improve diagnostic accuracy. Through genome-wide DNA methylation screening of > 25,000 tumors, we discovered a molecularly distinct class comprising 30 tumors, mostly diagnosed histologically as DLGNTs. Copy-number profiles derived from the methylation arrays revealed unifying characteristics, including loss of chromosomal arm 1p in all cases. Furthermore, this molecular DLGNT class can be subdivided into two subgroups [DLGNT methylation class (MC)-1 and DLGNT methylation class (MC)-2], with all DLGNT-MC-2 additionally displaying a gain of chromosomal arm 1q. Co-deletion of 1p/19q, commonly seen in IDH-mutant oligodendroglioma, was frequently observed in DLGNT, especially in DLGNT-MC-1 cases. Both subgroups also had recurrent genetic alterations leading to an aberrant MAPK/ERK pathway, with KIAA1549:BRAF fusion being the most frequent event. Other alterations included fusions of NTRK1/2/3 and TRIM33:RAF1, adding up to an MAPK/ERK pathway activation identified in 80% of cases. In the DLGNT-MC-1 group, age at diagnosis was significantly lower (median 5 vs 14 years, p < 0.01) and clinical course less aggressive (5-year OS 100, vs 43% in DLGNT-MC-2). Our study proposes an additional molecular layer to the current histopathological classification of DLGNT, of particular use for cases without typical morphological or radiological characteristics, such as diffuse growth and radiologic leptomeningeal dissemination. Recurrent 1p deletion and MAPK/ERK pathway activation represent diagnostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets, respectively-laying the foundation for future clinical trials with, e.g., MEK inhibitors that may improve the clinical outcome of patients with DLGNT.

Baseline Factors Associated With Improvements in Decompensated Cirrhosis After Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C Virus Infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Treatment with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents can reduce Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) scores in patients with decompensated cirrhosis caused by hepatitis C virus. However, many of these patients still die or require liver transplantation. We collected data on baseline features of patients and aimed to develop a scoring system to predict response to DAA therapy.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 4 trials on the effects of sofosbuvir-based therapy in patients with hepatitis C virus-associated decompensated cirrhosis (502 of CPT class B and 120 of CPT class C). In these trials, patients were given 12 or 24 weeks of treatment with ledipasvir, sofosbuvir, and ribavirin or velpatasvir, sofosbuvir, and/or ribavirin, or 48 weeks of treatment with sofosbuvir and ribavirin. We collected demographic, clinical, treatment response, and laboratory data from patients and tested their associations with patient outcomes at 36 weeks. The primary outcome was factors associated with reduction of CPT score to class A.

RESULTS

The presence of ascites or encephalopathy, serum level of albumin <3.5 g/dL or alanine aminotransferase <60 U/L, and body mass index >25 kg/m² were associated with an increased risk of not achieving a reduction in CPT to class A, independent of sustained viral response to therapy. Serum level of albumin <2.8 g/dL and abnormal level of bilirubin were associated with an increased risk of liver transplantation or death. We developed a scoring system based on 5 baseline factors (body mass index, encephalopathy, ascites, and serum levels of alanine aminotransferase and albumin) associated significantly with patient outcomes, which we called the "BE3A score." For patients with scores of 4-5, the hazard ratio for reduction of CPT score to class A was 52.3 (95% confidence interval, 15.2-179.7).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified 5 baseline factors (body mass index, encephalopathy, ascites, and serum levels of alanine aminotransferase and albumin) associated with a reduction of CPT score to class A in patients with hepatitis C virus-associated decompensated cirrhosis receiving DAA therapy. We developed a predictive score using these factors, called the BE3A score, which can be used as a shared decision-making tool, quantifying the potential benefits of DAA therapy for patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

The liquid biopsy in the management of colorectal cancer patients: Current applications and future scenarios

The term liquid biopsy refers to the analysis of biomarkers in any body fluid, including blood, urine and cerebrospinal fluid. In cancer, liquid biopsy testing allows the analysis of tumor-derived DNA, RNA, miRNA and proteins that can be either cell-free or contained in circulating tumor cells (CTC), extracellular vesicles (EVs) or platelets. A number of studies suggest that liquid biopsy testing could have a relevant role in the management of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients at different stages of the disease. Analysis of cell-free DNA (cfDNA), CTC and/or miRNA can provide relevant information for the early diagnosis of CRC and the identification of minimal residual disease and, more generally, the evaluation of the risk of recurrence in early CRC patients. In addition, liquid biopsy testing might allow the assessment of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in metastatic CRC patients, and the monitoring of the response to treatment and of the clonal evolution of the disease. While a number of elegant studies have shown the potential of liquid biopsy in CRC, the possibility to use this approach in the daily clinical practice is still limited. The use of non-standardized methods, the small cohorts of patients analyzed, the lack of demonstration of a clear clinical benefit are the main limitations of the studies with liquid biopsy in CRC reported up to now. The potential of this approach and the steps that need still to be taken to translate these preliminary findings in the clinic are discussed in this review.

Incremental prognostic utility of coronary CT angiography for asymptomatic patients based upon extent and severity of coronary artery calcium: results from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) study

AIM

Prior evidence observed no predictive utility of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) over the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and the Framingham risk score (FRS), among asymptomatic individuals. Whether the prognostic value of CCTA differs for asymptomatic patients, when stratified by CACS severity, remains unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From a 12-centre, 6-country observational registry, 3217 asymptomatic individuals without known coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent CACS and CCTA. Individuals were categorized by CACS as: 0-10, 11-100, 101-400, 401-1000, >1000. For CCTA analysis, the number of obstructive vessels-as defined by the per-patient presence of a ≥50% luminal stenosis-was used to grade the extent and severity of CAD. The incremental prognostic value of CCTA over and above FRS was measured by the likelihood ratio (LR) χ(2), C-statistic, and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) for prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction. During a median follow-up of 24 months (25th-75th percentile, 17-30 months), there were 58 composite end-points. The incremental value of CCTA over FRS was demonstrated in individuals with CACS >100 (LRχ(2), 25.34; increment in C-statistic, 0.24; NRI, 0.62, all P < 0.001), but not among those with CACS ≤100 (all P > 0.05). For subgroups with CACS >100, the utility of CCTA for predicting the study end-point was evident among individuals whose CACS ranged from 101 to 400; the observed predictive benefit attenuated with increasing CACS.

CONCLUSION

Coronary CT angiography provides incremental prognostic utility for prediction of mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction for asymptomatic individuals with moderately high CACS, but not for lower or higher CACS.

MicroRNAs potential utility in colon cancer: Early detection, prognosis, and chemosensitivity

Over the past decade, research has shown that aberrant expression of microRNA (miRNA) is involved in colorectal cancer development and progression. MicroRNAs are small sequences of non-coding RNA that regulate expression of genes involved in important cellular functions, such as cell differentiation, multiplication, and apoptosis. A specific miRNA may display the effects of a tumor suppressor or oncogene. Altered miRNA expression is found in colorectal cancer (CRC) and patterns of miRNA expression correlate with CRC detection and outcome. Studies also have examined the use of circulating serum miRNA and fecal miRNA expression as non-invasive markers for early detection. Here, we review recent evidence demonstrating the potential role of miRNA in CRC and the implications of its use in the diagnosis, prognosis, and management of CRC.

Deficient mismatch repair/microsatellite unstable colorectal cancer: Diagnosis, prognosis and treatment

Microsatellite unstable (MSI) colorectal cancers (CRCs) are due to DNA mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency and occurs in15% of non-metastatic diseases and 5% in the metastatic setting. Nearly 30% of MSI CRCs occur in a context of constitutional mutation of the MMR system (Lynch syndrome). Others are sporadic cancers linked to a hypermethylation of the MLH-1 promoter. The pathogenic alterations of MMR genes lead to the accumulation of frequent somatic mutational events and these tumours arbour a high antigen burden and are highly infiltrated with cytotoxic T-cell lymphocytes. Microsatellite instability/DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MSI/dMMR) status has prognostic and predictive implications in non-metastatic and metastatic CRCs. The prognostic value of MSI status in non-metastatic CRCs has been studied extensively, yet the data are more limited for its predictive value in terms of adjuvant chemotherapy efficacy. In both cases (metastatic and non-metastatic settings) treatment with immune check-point inhibitors (ICIs) have shown a remarkable effectiveness in the context of MSI/dMMR status. Indeed, recent data from prospective cohorts and randomised trials have shown a dramatical improvement of survival with immunotherapy (programmed death-ligand 1 [PD-(L)1]   cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 [CTLA-4] blockage) in metastatic or non-metastatic MSI/dMMR CRC. In this review we report and discuss how and for whom to test for the MSI/dMMR phenotype, as well as the prognostic value of this phenotype and the new treatment recommendations options for this unique CRC population. Despite their efficacy, primary and secondary resistance to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are observed in more than 50% MSI-H/dMMR CRC patients and in the future how to identify these patients and to overcome resistance will be an important challenge.

Targeted detection of genetic alterations reveal the prognostic impact of H3K27M and MAPK pathway aberrations in paediatric thalamic glioma

Paediatric brain tumours arising in the thalamus present significant diagnostic and therapeutic challenges to physicians due to their sensitive midline location. As such, genetic analysis for biomarkers to aid in the diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of these tumours is needed. Here, we identified 64 thalamic gliomas with clinical follow-up and characterized targeted genomic alterations using newly optimized droplet digital and NanoString-based assays. The median age at diagnosis was 9.25 years (range, 0.63–17.55) and median survival was 6.43 (range, 0.01–27.63) years. Our cohort contained 42 and 22 tumours reviewed as low and high grade gliomas, respectively. Five (12 %) low grade and 11 (50 %) high grade gliomas were positive for the H3F3A/HIST1H3B K27M (H3K27M) mutation. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed significantly worse overall survival for patients harbouring the H3K27M mutation versus H3F3A/HIST1H3B wild type (H3WT) samples (log-rank p < 0.0001) with a median survival of 1.02 vs. 9.12 years. Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway activation via BRAF or FGFR1 hotspot mutations or fusion events were detected in 44 % of patients, and was associated with long-term survival in the absence of H3K27M (log-rank p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated H3K27M status and high grade histology to be the most significant independent predictors of poor overall survival with hazard ratios of 6.945 and 7.721 (p < 0.0001), respectively. In contrast, MAPK pathway activation is a predictor of favourable patient outcome, although not independent of other clinical factors. Importantly, we show that low grade malignancies may harbour H3K27M mutations and that these tumours show a dismal survival compared to low grade H3WT cases. Our data strongly supports the inclusion of targeted genetic testing in childhood thalamic tumours to most accurately stratify patients into appropriate risk groups.

Risk factors for postoperative delirium: An umbrella review of systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Postoperative delirium (POD) is associated with increased mortality, increased length of hospital stays and increased rates and severity of subsequent cognitive decline including dementia. A wide range of risk factors for POD have been suggested in the literature across multiple surgical specialities. However few are validated and no accurate prognostic models exist. We therefore aimed to map the existing evidence regarding risk factors for POD to help guide future research by undertaking an umbrella review of systematic reviews examining risk factors for POD in any context.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We systematically searched multiple medical databases for systematic reviews examining the risk factors for POD in adults undergoing any surgery. We then selected relevant reviews with minimal overlap in primary studies and extracted information about individual risk factors.

RESULTS

Thirty-five relevant reviews were identified of which ten were in trauma and orthopaedic surgery patients (four exclusively examined hip fractures), five were in cardiac surgery patients, and four were in vascular surgery patients. Due to substantial overlap in reviews, eighteen reviews were analysed in detail finding the widely examined and consistent risk factors were increasing age, nursing home residency, pre-existing cognitive impairment, psychiatric disorders, cerebrovascular disease, end stage renal failure, low albumin, higher ASA score, and intra-operative blood transfusion. Many other risk factors were examined, but they were either not studied in multiple systematic reviews, or inconsistent either in results or in categorisation (which for many factors was heterogenous even within systematic reviews). There are also a large number of existing prognostic models, many of which remain unvalidated.

CONCLUSION

Given the wealth of existing literature, future research should avoid simple risk factor evaluation except for novel candidates, validate existing prognostic models where possible, and instead focus on interventional research.