WITHDRAWN: Chinese herbal medicine for atopic eczema

This review has been withdrawn as it has been updated by way of a new protocol and then a review, as the scope of the review has substantially expanded. The citation for the new updated review is as follows: Gu S, Yang AWH, Xue CCL, Li CG, Pang C, Zhang W, Williams HC. Chinese herbal medicine for atopic eczema. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2013, Issue 9. Art. No.: CD008642. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD008642.pub2.

The editorial group responsible for this previously published document have withdrawn it from publication.

Chinese herbal medicine for atopic eczema

BACKGROUND

Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) has been increasingly used for atopic eczema. A previous version of this Cochrane review published in 2004 found some evidence of a possible benefit for oral ingestion of CHM for eczema, but the results were inconclusive and the evidence needs to be updated. We have expanded the scope of this review to include an assessment of the topical and oral effects of CHM for eczema.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of oral ingestion and topical applications of CHM for the management of eczema in children and adults.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases up to September 2012: the Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL in The Cochrane Library (2012, Issue 8), MEDLINE (from 1946), EMBASE (from 1974), AMED (from 1985), LILACS (from 1982), and CINAHL (from 1981). We searched the following from inception: SCOPUS, HERBMED, ProQuest, CQVIP, CNKI, and Wanfang Data. We also searched trials registers, handsearched conference proceedings, checked the reference lists of all included and excluded studies and review articles for further references to relevant trials, and contacted experts in Chinese medicine for unpublished studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in children and adults with eczema comparing CHM to placebo; no intervention; active controls, including acupuncture; or conventional medicines.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors selected the RCTs, extracted data, and assessed quality independently. We contacted study authors for missing data. We collected adverse events from the included studies.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 28 studies, with a total of 2306 participants. We assessed most of the studies at high 'risk of bias', particularly in blinding of participants and personnel, and there was substantial inconsistency between studies, so any positive effect of CHM must be treated with caution. We did not include the four studies from the previous version in this review, because they investigated a CHM product that has been withdrawn from the market since 2004.Four studies (three oral and one topical) compared CHM to placebo. Pooled data from 2 studies showed the total effectiveness rate in the CHM group was higher (by risk ratio (RR) 2.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32 to 3.32; 2 studies; n = 85), and the itching visual analogue score (VAS) in the CHM group was 1.53 lower (by standardised mean difference (SMD), 95% CI 2.64 to 0.41; 2 Studies; n = 94) than the placebo group, where a lower VAS score indicates reduced itch. One study of 85 participants with moderate to severe eczema who received an oral CHM formula for 12 weeks reported a quality of life (QoL) score 2.5 lower in the CHM group (by difference in means (MD), 95% CI 4.77 to 0.23; 1 study; n = 85) than the placebo group, where a lower score indicates better QoL.  Twenty-two studies and 1 arm from a study with a 4-arm parallel controlled design compared CHM (5 oral, 6 topical, and 12 mixed oral and topical) to conventional medicines. The total effectiveness rate in the CHM groups was superior (RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.61; 21 studies; n = 1868; very low quality evidence), and the itching VAS in the CHM groups was 0.83 lower (SMD, 95% CI 1.43 to 0.22; 7 studies; n = 465) than the comparators.Two studies compared combined oral and topical CHM to the same oral CHM formula alone. The total effectiveness rate in 1 study was not statistically significant (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.63; 1 study; n = 20). In the other study, the itching VAS in the CHM group was 1.05 lower (MD, 95% CI 1.75 to 0.35; 1 study; n = 23) than the control group.With regard to side-effects, four studies did not give any report of adverse events. The other 24 studies reported minor adverse events, which were reversed soon after stopping CHM. One participant withdrew from one trial because of exacerbation of their condition after using the CHM intervention.Eight studies received government funding.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We could not find conclusive evidence that CHM taken by mouth or applied topically to the skin could reduce the severity of eczema in children or adults.Well-designed, adequately powered RCTs are needed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of CHM for managing eczema.

Penicillin to prevent recurrent leg cellulitis

BACKGROUND

Cellulitis of the leg is a common bacterial infection of the skin and underlying tissue. We compared prophylactic low-dose penicillin with placebo for the prevention of recurrent cellulitis.

METHODS

We conducted a double-blind, randomized, controlled trial involving patients with two or more episodes of cellulitis of the leg who were recruited in 28 hospitals in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Randomization was performed according to a computer-generated code, and study medications (penicillin [250 mg twice a day] or placebo for 12 months) were dispensed by a central pharmacy. The primary outcome was the time to a first recurrence. Participants were followed for up to 3 years. Because the risk of recurrence was not constant over the 3-year period, the primary hypothesis was tested during prophylaxis only.

RESULTS

A total of 274 patients were recruited. Baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups. The median time to a first recurrence of cellulitis was 626 days in the penicillin group and 532 days in the placebo group. During the prophylaxis phase, 30 of 136 participants in the penicillin group (22%) had a recurrence, as compared with 51 of 138 participants in the placebo group (37%) (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35 to 0.86; P=0.01), yielding a number needed to treat to prevent one recurrent cellulitis episode of 5 (95% CI, 4 to 9). During the no-intervention follow-up period, there was no difference between groups in the rate of a first recurrence (27% in both groups). Overall, participants in the penicillin group had fewer repeat episodes than those in the placebo group (119 vs. 164, P=0.02 for trend). There was no significant between-group difference in the number of participants with adverse events (37 in the penicillin group and 48 in the placebo group, P=0.50).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with recurrent cellulitis of the leg, penicillin was effective in preventing subsequent attacks during prophylaxis, but the protective effect diminished progressively once drug therapy was stopped. (Funded by Action Medical Research; PATCH I Controlled-Trials.com number, ISRCTN34716921.).

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010.

METHODS

We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UK's rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures.

FINDINGS

For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimer's disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010.

INTERPRETATION

The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping systematic reviews on atopic eczema--an essential resource for dermatology professionals and researchers

Background

Many research studies have been published on atopic eczema and these are often summarised in systematic reviews (SRs). Identifying SRs can be time-consuming for health professionals, and researchers. In order to facilitate the identification of important research, we have compiled an on-line resource that includes all relevant eczema reviews published since 2000.

Methods

SRs were searched for in MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), PubMed, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, DARE and NHS Evidence. Selected SRs were assessed against the pre-defined eligibility criteria and relevant articles were grouped by treatment category for the included interventions. All identified systematic reviews are included in the Global Resource of EczemA Trials (GREAT) database (www.greatdatabase.org.uk) and key clinical messages are summarised here.

Results

A total of 128 SRs reviews were identified, including three clinical guidelines. Of these, 46 (36%) were found in the Cochrane Library. No single database contained all of the SRs found. The number of SRs published per year has increased substantially over the last thirteen years, and reviews were published in a variety of clinical journals. Of the 128 SRs, 1 (1%) was on mechanism, 37 (29%) were on epidemiology, 40 (31%) were on eczema prevention, 29 (23%) were on topical treatments, 31 (24%) were on systemic treatments, and 24 (19%) were on other treatments. All SRs included searches of MEDLINE in their search methods. One hundred six SRs (83%) searched more than one electronic database. There were no language restrictions reported in the search methods of 52 of the SRs (41%).

Conclusions

This mapping of atopic eczema reviews is a valuable resource. It will help healthcare practitioners, guideline writers, information specialists, and researchers to quickly identify relevant up-to-date evidence in the field for improving patient care.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.

INTERPRETATION

Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevention of atopic dermatitis

Atopic dermatitis now affects one in five children, and may progress to asthma and hay fever. In the absence of effective treatments that influence disease progression, prevention is a highly desirable goal. The evidence for most existing disease prevention strategies, such as avoidance of allergens and dietary interventions, has been unconvincing and inconsistent. Fresh approaches to prevention include trying to induce tolerance to allergens in early life, and enhancing the defective skin barrier to reduce skin inflammation, sensitisation and subsequent allergic disease. Early and aggressive treatment of atopic dermatitis represents another possible secondary prevention strategy that could interrupt the development of autoimmunity, which may account for atopic dermatitis persistence. Large scale and long term randomized controlled trials are needed to demonstrate that these ideas result in clinical benefit.

What determines patient preferences for treating low risk basal cell carcinoma when comparing surgery vs imiquimod? A discrete choice experiment survey from the SINS trial

Background

The SINS trial (Controlled Clinical Trials ISRCTN48755084; Eudract No. 2004-004506-24) is a randomised controlled trial evaluating long term success of excisional surgery vs. imiquimod 5% cream for low risk nodular and superficial basal cell carcinoma (BCC). The trial included a discrete choice experiment questionnaire to explore patient preferences of a cream versus surgery for the treatment of their skin cancer.

Methods

The self-completed questionnaire was administered at baseline to 183 participants, measuring patients’ strength of preferences when choosing either alternative ‘surgery’ or ‘imiquimod cream’ instead of a fixed ‘current situation’ option (of surgical excision as standard practice in UK). The treatments were described according to: cost, chance of complete clearance, side effects and appearance. Participants had to choose between various scenarios. Analysis was performed using a mixed logit model, which took into account the impact of previous BCC treatment and sample preference variability.

Results

The analysis showed that respondents preferred ‘imiquimod cream’ to their ‘current situation’ or ‘surgery’, regardless of previous experience of BCC symptoms and treatment. Respondents were more likely to be worried about their cosmetic outcomes and side effects they might experience over and above their chance of clearance and cost. Those with no experience of surgery (compared with experience) valued more the choice of ‘imiquimod cream’ (£1013 vs £781). All treatment characteristics were significant determinants of treatment choice, and there was significant variability in the population preferences for all of them.

Conclusions

Patients with BCC valued more ‘imiquimod cream’ than alternative ‘surgery’ options, and all treatment characteristics were important for their choice of care. Understanding how people with a BCC value alternative interventions may better inform the development of health care interventions.

When inferiority meets non-inferiority: implications for interim analyses

BACKGROUND

The objective of a non-inferiority trial is to determine whether a new or existing treatment is not less effective than another existing or current treatment by more than a pre-specified margin, Δ, usually with the requirement that the new treatment has some other advantage such as reduced cost or lower toxicity. A possible but unusual result in a non-inferiority trial is for the confidence interval for the treatment effect to lie between zero and Δ, implying that the new treatment is both inferior and non-inferior to the control. Such a result could occur in non-inferiority trials with large sample sizes or large non-inferiority margins. The possibility of this scenario occurring has implications for interim analyses. In standard superiority trials, stopping guidelines are often based on the p value obtained from testing whether treatments are equally effective. In non-inferiority trials, however, even if a new treatment is found to be inferior to the control at an interim analysis, there may still be a reasonable chance of demonstrating non-inferiority in the final analysis.

PURPOSE

To explore the issues arising from trials where a simultaneously inferior and non-inferior result could occur and to describe appropriate methods for deciding whether such trials should be stopped for futility at an interim analysis.

METHODS

Conditional power is used to assess futility or the inability of the trial to show non-inferiority at the final analysis, by calculating the probability of demonstrating non-inferiority in the final analysis conditional on the observed results and upon assumptions on the future results of the trial. The Bullous Pemphigoid Steroids and Tetracyclines Study (BLISTER) trial is an example of a trial where a simultaneous inferior and non-inferior result could occur. A method for calculating conditional power for non-inferiority using simulations is described and applied at a hypothetical interim analysis of this trial.

RESULTS

Stopping guidelines for futility based on conditional power are shown to be better suited to non-inferiority trials than the typical methods used in superiority trials. Simulations are a straightforward and flexible way of calculating conditional power.

LIMITATIONS

Calculating conditional power relies on assumptions about future treatment efficacy, and therefore, a number of different conditional power values can be obtained. Careful consideration should be given to which assumptions are most likely to be true. Additionally, when choosing a stopping guideline for futility, consideration needs to be given to avoid overinflating the type II error rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Conditional power is an appropriate tool for defining stopping guidelines for futility in non-inferiority trials, particularly those with large non-inferiority margins.

Tuberculosis, bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination, and allergic disease: findings from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood Phase Two

Some have suggested a protective effect of tuberculosis (TB) infection on allergic disease risk, but few studies have examined the association between the two. We therefore investigated whether TB disease and bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination in early life protect against allergic disease. Information on allergic disease symptoms, past TB disease, and BCG vaccination as well as potential confounding factors was gathered by parental questionnaire from a randomly selected subset of 23,901 8- to 12-yr-old schoolchildren in 20 centers in both developed and developing countries. Children were also physically examined for flexural eczema and underwent skin prick testing. Pooled odds ratio (OR) estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) across study centers were calculated, using random effects meta-analysis models. There were 245 (1.0%) reported cases of TB disease, and 66.3% (15,857) of all children received the BCG vaccine. Asthma, hay fever, and flexural eczema symptoms in the past year as well as flexural eczema on skin examination were all positively linked to a history of TB (adjusted pooled OR 'wheeze in the past year' = 2.27, 95% CI 1.52-3.41; adjusted pooled OR 'hay fever symptoms in the past year' = 2.23, 1.22-4.09; adjusted pooled OR 'flexural eczema symptoms in the past year' = 3.21, 2.01-5.12; adjusted pooled OR 'flexural eczema on skin examination' = 4.04, 1.71-9.56). Even higher risk estimates were seen for severe asthma and eczema symptoms [adjusted OR = 4.02 (2.17-7.47) and adjusted OR = 6.31 (2.19-18.17), respectively]. There was no significant association between past TB and skin prick test positivity (adjusted pooled OR = 1.32, 0.87-2.02). BCG vaccination during the first year of life was also not associated with any of the allergy outcomes. We found a uniform positive association between TB and all allergic disease outcomes, including eczema on skin examination. As this was a cross-sectional study, it is unclear whether this positive association is attributable to a causal relationship, and further longitudinal studies are required.

UK Dermatology Clinical Trials Network's STOP GAP trial (a multicentre trial of prednisolone versus ciclosporin for pyoderma gangrenosum): protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Pyoderma gangrenosum (PG) is a rare inflammatory skin disorder characterised by painful and rapidly progressing skin ulceration. PG can be extremely difficult to treat and patients often require systemic immunosuppression. Recurrent lesions of PG are common, but the relative rarity of this condition means that there is a lack of published evidence regarding its treatment. A systematic review published in 2005 found no randomised controlled trials (RCTs) relating to the treatment of PG. Since this time, one small RCT has been published comparing infliximab to placebo, but none of the commonly used systemic treatments for PG have been formally assessed. The UK Dermatology Clinical Trials Network's STOP GAP Trial has been designed to address this lack of trial evidence.

METHODS

The objective is to assess whether oral ciclosporin is more effective than oral prednisolone for the treatment of PG. The trial design is a two-arm, observer-blind, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial comparing ciclosporin (4 mg/kg/day) to prednisolone (0.75 mg/kg/day). A total of 140 participants are to be recruited over a period of 4 years, from up to 50 hospitals in the UK and Eire. Primary outcome of velocity of healing at 6 weeks is assessed blinded to treatment allocation (using digital images of the ulcers). Secondary outcomes include: (i) time to healing; (ii) global assessment of improvement; (iii) PG inflammation assessment scale score; (iv) self-reported pain; (v) health-related quality of life; (vi) time to recurrence; (vii) treatment failures; (viii) adverse reactions to study medications; and (ix) cost effectiveness/utility. Patients with a clinical diagnosis of PG (excluding granulomatous PG); measurable ulceration (that is, not pustular PG); and patients aged over 18 years old who are able to give informed consent are included in the trial. Randomisation is by computer generated code using permuted blocks of randomly varying size, stratified by lesion size, and presence or absence of underlying systemic disease (for example, rheumatoid arthritis).Patients who require topical therapy are asked to enter a parallel observational study (case series). If topical therapy fails and systemic therapy is required, participants are then considered for inclusion in the randomised trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current controlled trials: ISRCTN35898459. Eudract No.2008-008291-14.

The value of the pragmatic-explanatory continuum indicator summary wheel in an ongoing study: the bullous pemphigoid steroids and tetracyclines study

Background

The Pragmatic-Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summary (PRECIS) tool is intended to be used in the design phase of trials to help investigative teams design trials in-line with their purpose. Our team applied this tool to an ongoing trial (BLISTER) to determine whether the initial suggestion among some team members that the trial could be described as largely pragmatic was the consensus.

Methods

Each of the six members of the BLISTER trial team was sent a blank PRECIS wheel to independently complete. The results obtained were averaged and plotted on a single PRECIS wheel to illustrate the degree of pragmatism of the trial.

Results

The trial team found that the design of the trial was closest to the pragmatic end of the pragmatic-explanatory continuum. The strongest consensus was found on the ‘flexibility of the comparison intervention’ and ‘practitioner adherence’ domains (SD = 13). The trial team appeared to disagree most on the ‘eligibility criteria’ (SD = 35) and ‘participant compliance’ (SD = 31) domains, although the large standard deviations were a result of a single outlier in the two domains.

Conclusion

The PRECIS tool can be used to retrospectively determine the pragmatism of a trial provided enough expertise and information on the trial is available. Illustrating the design of a trial on the PRECIS wheel can help research users more easily identify studies of interest. We hope our recommendations for applying this useful tool will encourage others to consider using it when designing, conducting and reporting studies.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN13704604

Dietary supplements for established atopic eczema

BACKGROUND

Many people with atopic eczema are reluctant to use the most commonly recommended treatments because they fear the long-term health effects. As a result, many turn to dietary supplements as a possible treatment approach, often with the belief that some essential ingredient is 'missing' in their diet. Various supplements have been proposed, but it is unclear whether any of these interventions are effective.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate dietary supplements for treating established atopic eczema/dermatitis.Evening primrose oil, borage oil, and probiotics are covered in other Cochrane reviews.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases up to July 2010: the Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (from 2005), EMBASE (from 2007), PsycINFO (from 1806), AMED (from 1985), LILACS (from 1982), ISI Web of Science, GREAT (Global Resource of EczemA Trials) database, and reference lists of articles. We searched ongoing trials registers up to April 2011.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of dietary supplements for the treatment of those with established atopic eczema/dermatitis.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently screened the titles and abstracts, read the full text of the publications, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 11 studies with a total of 596 participants. Two studies assessed fish oil versus olive oil or corn oil placebo. The following were all looked at in single studies: oral zinc sulphate compared to placebo, selenium versus selenium plus vitamin E versus placebo, vitamin D versus placebo, vitamin D versus vitamin E versus vitamins D plus vitamin E together versus placebo, pyridoxine versus placebo, sea buckthorn seed oil versus sea buckthorn pulp oil versus placebo, hempseed oil versus placebo, sunflower oil (linoleic acid) versus fish oil versus placebo, and DHA versus control (saturated fatty acids of the same energy value). Two small studies on fish oil suggest a possible modest benefit, but many outcomes were explored. A convincingly positive result from a much larger study with a publicly-registered protocol is needed before clinical practice can be influenced.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no convincing evidence of the benefit of dietary supplements in eczema, and they cannot be recommended for the public or for clinical practice at present. Whilst some may argue that at least supplements do not do any harm, high doses of vitamin D may give rise to serious medical problems, and the cost of long-term supplements may also mount up.

Acne vulgaris

Acne is a chronic inflammatory disease of the pilosebaceous unit resulting from androgen-induced increased sebum production, altered keratinisation, inflammation, and bacterial colonisation of hair follicles on the face, neck, chest, and back by Propionibacterium acnes. Although early colonisation with P acnes and family history might have important roles in the disease, exactly what triggers acne and how treatment affects the course of the disease remain unclear. Other factors such as diet have been implicated, but not proven. Facial scarring due to acne affects up to 20% of teenagers. Acne can persist into adulthood, with detrimental effects on self-esteem. There is no ideal treatment for acne, although a suitable regimen for reducing lesions can be found for most patients. Good quality evidence on comparative effectiveness of common topical and systemic acne therapies is scarce. Topical therapies including benzoyl peroxide, retinoids, and antibiotics when used in combination usually improve control of mild to moderate acne. Treatment with combined oral contraceptives can help women with acne. Patients with more severe inflammatory acne usually need oral antibiotics combined with topical benzoyl peroxide to decrease antibiotic-resistant organisms. Oral isotretinoin is the most effective therapy and is used early in severe disease, although its use is limited by teratogenicity and other side-effects. Availability, adverse effects, and cost, limit the use of photodynamic therapy. New research is needed into the therapeutic comparative effectiveness and safety of the many products available, and to better understand the natural history, subtypes, and triggers of acne.

Lack of evidence for a protective effect of prolonged breastfeeding on childhood eczema: lessons from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase Two

BACKGROUND

Exclusive breastfeeding for at least 4 months is recommended by many governments and allergy organizations to prevent allergic disease.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether exclusive breastfeeding protects against childhood eczema.

METHODS

Study subjects comprised 51,119 randomly selected 8- to 12-year-old schoolchildren in 21 countries. Information on eczema and breastfeeding was gathered by parental questionnaire. Children were also examined for flexural eczema and underwent skin prick testing. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for each study centre and then pooled across populations.

RESULTS

There was a small increase in the risk of reported 'eczema ever' in association with 'breastfeeding ever' and breastfeeding < 6 months [pooled adjusted OR 1·11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·00-1·22 and OR 1·10, 95% CI 1·02-1·20, respectively]. There was no significant association between reported 'eczema ever' and breastfeeding > 6 months (pooled adjusted OR 1·09, 95% CI 0·94-1·26). Risk estimates were very similar for exclusive breastfeeding < 2 months, 2-4 months and > 4 months and for eczema symptoms in the past 12 months and eczema on skin examination. As for more severe eczema, breastfeeding per se conveyed a risk reduction on sleep disturbed eczema (pooled adjusted OR 0·71, 95% CI 0·53-0·96), but this effect was lost where children had been exclusively breastfed for > 4 months (pooled adjusted OR 1·02, 95% CI 0·67-1·54). Allergic sensitization and a history of maternal allergic disease did not modify any of these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was a protective effect of ever having been breastfed on more severe disease, we found no evidence that exclusive breastfeeding for 4 months or longer protects against eczema. Our results are consistent with findings from a recent systematic review of prospective studies. The U.K. breastfeeding guidelines with regard to eczema should be reviewed. Intervention studies are now required to explore how and when solids should be introduced alongside breastfeeding to aid protection against eczema and other allergic diseases.

Overview of Reviews The prevention of eczema in infants and children: an overview of Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews

BACKGROUND: Eczema is the most common inflammatory skin disease of childhood, characterized by an itchy red rash that usually involves the face and skin folds. There is currently no curative treatment for eczema, so the reduction of eczema incidence through disease prevention is a desirable goal. Potential interventions for preventing eczema include exclusive breastfeeding, hydrolysed protein formulas and soy formulas when bottle feeding, maternal antigen avoidance, omega oil supplementation, prebiotics and probiotics. OBJECTIVES: This overview of reviews aims to present the current body of data from Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews to provide the most up-to-date evidence on the efficacy and safety of interventions to prevent eczema in infants and children at different risk levels for developing allergic disease. METHODS: Our pool of Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews came from the 2010 United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) Evidence Skin Disorders Annual Evidence Updates Mapping Exercise on Atopic Eczema. This group used a comprehensive search strategy last conducted in August 2010 to identify all systematic reviews on eczema prevention. We identified all reviews that met our pre-specified inclusion criteria, and data were extracted, analysed, compiled into tables and synthesized using quantitative and qualitative methods. MAIN RESULTS: Seven systematic reviews containing 39 relevant trials with 11 897 participants were included in this overview. Overall, there was no clear evidence that any of the main interventions reviewed reduced eczema incidence. In subgroup analyses of infants at high risk of allergic disease, an observational study found that exclusive breastfeeding for at least six months compared with introduction of solids at three to six months decreased the incidence of eczema by 60% (risk ratio (RR): 0.40; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21, 0.78), and a randomized controlled trial found that prebiotics compared with no prebiotics decreased incidence by 58% (RR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.21, 0.84). However, each of these findings was based on the results of a single small trial, and no intervention reduced eczema incidence beyond the first two years of life. Although we pre-specified incidence of atopic eczema (i.e. eczema associated with immunoglobulin E (IgE) sensitization) as a primary outcome, data on whether participants diagnosed with eczema were truly atopic were largely lacking from systematic reviews. Similarly, data on atopy, measured using skin prick tests or specific IgE tests to allergens, were not reported in many reviews. No interventions were found to decrease atopy when reported. Adverse events data were generally lacking, but data from a trial of probiotics versus no probiotics showed significantly more spitting up in the first one (RR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.03, 3.45) and two (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.02, 2.80) months of life, but no overall increase in risk of gastrointestinal symptoms in the first year. AUTHORS#ENTITYSTARTX02019; CONCLUSIONS: Although there is currently no clear evidence showing that any of the interventions examined in this overview prevent eczema in participants not selected for risk of allergic disease, there is some evidence that exclusive breastfeeding for at least six months and prebiotics might reduce eczema incidence in high-risk participants. However, these conclusions are based on limited evidence with methodological shortcomings. Future research on prevention of eczema is needed and should examine different types of hydrolysed formulas, prebiotics and probiotics, as well as enhancement of the skin barrier and other novel approaches in infants at different risk levels for developing allergic disease.

What's new in skin cancer? An analysis of guidelines and systematic reviews published in 2008-2009

This review summarizes clinically important findings from 17 systematic reviews and 2 guidelines on skin cancer indexed between April 2008 and April 2009. Melanoma primary-prevention measures, such as education, are more likely to be successful in younger children than adolescents, and general population screening for melanoma by whole-body examination is not currently supported by the evidence. A large systematic review of melanoma and pregnancy concluded that pregnancy does not affect prognosis. Two systematic reviews imply that sunburn later in life also increases the risk of melanoma, and that it is just as important as sunburn early in life. Three systematic reviews discussed the role of positron emission tomography and sentinel lymph-node biopsy for melanoma staging, but produced conflicting results. Superior diagnostic accuracy of dermatoscopy over naked-eye examination for melanoma was found in one review, while a second implied nonsignificantly higher sensitivity of computer-based diagnostic methods over dermatoscopy for melanoma but with reduced specificity. There were no identified randomized controlled trials of treatments for unresectable recurrent melanoma, and a review of immunotherapy with vaccines for melanoma failed to prove improved overall and disease-free survival. Guidelines for the management of basal cell carcinoma call for risk stratification, based on numerous factors including tumour size, site and histological subtype. Squamous cell carcinoma of the ear has been shown to spread to regional lymph nodes more commonly than to other sites, and may be predicted by depth of invasion, tumour size, cellular differentiation and completeness of excision.

A multicentre randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of ion-exchange water softeners for the treatment of eczema in children: the Softened Water Eczema Trial (SWET)

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether installation of an ion-exchange water softener in the home could improve atopic eczema in children and, if so, to establish its likely cost and cost-effectiveness.

DESIGN

An observer-blind, parallel-group randomised controlled trial of 12 weeks duration followed by a 4-week observational period. Eczema was assessed by research nurses blinded to intervention at baseline, 4 weeks, 12 weeks and 16 weeks. The primary outcome was analysed as intent-to-treat, using the randomised allocation rather than actual treatment received. A secondary per-protocol analysis excluded participants who failed to receive their allocated treatment and who were deemed to be protocol violators.

SETTING

Secondary and primary care referral centres in England (UK) serving a variety of ethnic and social groups and including children living in both urban and periurban homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Three hundred and thirty-six children (aged 6 months to 16 years) with moderate/severe atopic eczema, living in homes in England supplied by hard water (≥ 200 mg/l calcium carbonate).

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomised to either installation of an ion-exchange water softener plus usual eczema care (group A) for 12 weeks or usual eczema care alone (group B) for 12 weeks. This was followed by a 4-week observational period, during which water softeners were switched off/removed from group A homes and installed in group B homes. Standard procedure was to soften all water in the home, but to provide mains (hard) water at a faucet-style tap in the kitchen for drinking and cooking. Participants were therefore exposed to softened water for bathing and washing of clothes, but continued to drink mains (hard) water. Usual care was defined as any treatment that the child was currently using in order to control his or her eczema. New treatment regimens used during the trial period were documented.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was the difference between group A and group B in mean change in disease severity at 12 weeks compared with baseline, as measured using the Six Area, Six Sign Atopic Dermatitis (SASSAD) score. This is an objective severity scale completed by blinded observers (research nurses) unaware of the allocated intervention. Secondary outcomes included use of topical medications, night-time movement, patient-reported eczema severity and a number of quality of life measures. A planned subgroup analysis was conducted, based on participants with at least one mutation in the gene encoding filaggrin (a protein in the skin thought to be important for normal skin barrier function).

RESULTS

Target recruitment was achieved (n = 336). The analysed population included 323 children who had complete data. The mean change in primary outcome (SASSAD) at 12 weeks was -5.0 [standard deviation (SD) 8.8] for the water softener group (group A) and -5.7 (SD 9.8) for the usual care group (group B) [mean difference 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.37 to 2.69, p = 0.53]. The per-protocol analysis supported the main analysis, and there was no evidence that the treatment effect varied between children with and without mutations in the filaggrin gene. No between-group differences were found in the three secondary outcomes that were assessed blindly (use of topical medications; night-time movement; proportion showing reasonable, good or excellent improvement). Small, but statistically significant, differences in favour of the water softener were found in three of the secondary outcomes that were assessed by participants [Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM); well-controlled weeks (WCWs); Dermatitis Family Index (DFI)]. The results of the economic evaluation, and the uncertainty surrounding them, suggest that ion-exchange water softeners are unlikely to be a cost-effective intervention for children with atopic eczema from an NHS perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

Water softeners provided no additional benefit to usual care in this study population. Small, but statistically significant, differences were found in some secondary outcomes as reported by parents, but it is likely that such improvements were the result of response bias. Whether or not the wider benefits of installing a water softener in the home are sufficient to justify the purchase of a softener is something for individual householders to consider on a case-by-case basis. This trial demonstrated overwhelming demand for non-pharmacological interventions for the treatment of eczema, and this is something that should be considered when prioritising future research in the field.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN71423189.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 15, No. 8. See the HTA programme website for further project information. Results of this trial are also published at www.plosmedicine.org.