Estimating the Risk of Domestic Water Source Contamination Following Precipitation Events

Climate change is expected to increase precipitation extremes, threatening water quality. In low resource settings, it is unclear which water sources are most vulnerable to contamination following rainfall events. We evaluated the relationship between rainfall and drinking water quality in southwest Guatemala where heavy rainfall is frequent and access to safe water is limited. We surveyed 59 shallow household wells, measured precipitation, and calculated simple hydrological variables. We compared Escherichia coli concentration at wells where recent rainfall had occurred versus had not occurred, and evaluated variability in the association between rainfall and E. coli concentration under different conditions using interaction models. Rainfall in the past 24 hours was associated with greater E. coli concentrations, with the strongest association between rainfall and fecal contamination at wells where pigs were nearby. Because of the small sample size, these findings should be considered preliminary, but provide a model to evaluate vulnerability to climate change.

A 'compelling case' for bioliquids'

Bioliquid is often overlooked by organisations when they look to reduce carbon emissions by moving heating or power generation away from fossil fuels to 'renewables'. According to Andrew Monaghan, commercial director at a specialist bioliquid producer, UK Renewable Fuels (UKRF), "although it doesn't have the glamour of some of the 'new' technologies, and bioliquids suffer something of a bad press from the environmental lobby, by any rational and informed reasoning, it really should be first on the list". Here he outlines why, as he puts it, 'second generation bioliquids should be the renewable of choice for many applications, as either the primary or a supplementary source of energy'.

Research on Emissions, Air quality, Climate, and Cooking Technologies in Northern Ghana (REACCTING): study rationale and protocol

BACKGROUND

Cooking over open fires using solid fuels is both common practice throughout much of the world and widely recognized to contribute to human health, environmental, and social problems. The public health burden of household air pollution includes an estimated four million premature deaths each year. To be effective and generate useful insight into potential solutions, cookstove intervention studies must select cooking technologies that are appropriate for local socioeconomic conditions and cooking culture, and include interdisciplinary measurement strategies along a continuum of outcomes.

METHODS/DESIGN

REACCTING (Research on Emissions, Air quality, Climate, and Cooking Technologies in Northern Ghana) is an ongoing interdisciplinary randomized cookstove intervention study in the Kassena-Nankana District of Northern Ghana. The study tests two types of biomass burning stoves that have the potential to meet local cooking needs and represent different "rungs" in the cookstove technology ladder: a locally-made low-tech rocket stove and the imported, highly efficient Philips gasifier stove. Intervention households were randomized into four different groups, three of which received different combinations of two improved stoves, while the fourth group serves as a control for the duration of the study. Diverse measurements assess different points along the causal chain linking the intervention to final outcomes of interest. We assess stove use and cooking behavior, cooking emissions, household air pollution and personal exposure, health burden, and local to regional air quality. Integrated analysis and modeling will tackle a range of interdisciplinary science questions, including examining ambient exposures among the regional population, assessing how those exposures might change with different technologies and behaviors, and estimating the comparative impact of local behavior and technological changes versus regional climate variability and change on local air quality and health outcomes.

DISCUSSION

REACCTING is well-poised to generate useful data on the impact of a cookstove intervention on a wide range of outcomes. By comparing different technologies side by side and employing an interdisciplinary approach to study this issue from multiple perspectives, this study may help to inform future efforts to improve health and quality of life for populations currently relying on open fires for their cooking needs.

Seasonal fluctuations of small mammal and flea communities in a Ugandan plague focus: evidence to implicate Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp. as key hosts in Yersinia pestis transmission

Background

The distribution of human plague risk is strongly associated with rainfall in the tropical plague foci of East Africa, but little is known about how the plague bacterium is maintained during periods between outbreaks or whether environmental drivers trigger these outbreaks. We collected small mammals and fleas over a two year period in the West Nile region of Uganda to examine how the ecological community varies seasonally in a region with areas of both high and low risk of human plague cases.

Methods

Seasonal changes in the small mammal and flea communities were examined along an elevation gradient to determine whether small mammal and flea populations exhibit differences in their response to seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, temperature, and crop harvests in areas within (above 1300 m) and outside (below 1300 m) of a model-defined plague focus.

Results

The abundance of two potential enzootic host species (Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp.) increased during the plague season within the plague focus, but did not show the same increase at lower elevations outside this focus. In contrast, the abundance of the domestic rat population (Rattus rattus) did not show significant seasonal fluctuations regardless of locality. Arvicanthis niloticus abundance was negatively associated with monthly precipitation at a six month lag and positively associated with current monthly temperatures, and Crocidura spp. abundance was positively associated with precipitation at a three month lag and negatively associated with current monthly temperatures. The abundance of A. niloticus and Crocidura spp. were both positively correlated with the harvest of millet and maize.

Conclusions

The association between the abundance of several small mammal species and rainfall is consistent with previous models of the timing of human plague cases in relation to precipitation in the West Nile region. The seasonal increase in the abundance of key potential host species within the plague focus, but not outside of this area, suggests that changes in small mammal abundance may create favorable conditions for epizootic transmission of Y. pestis which ultimately may increase risk of human cases in this region.

The use of foam sclerotherapy to treat low-flow vascular malformations of the head and neck

Liquid sclerotherapy, laser and surgery have been used in the treatment of head and neck vascular anomalies with variable success for many years. A multidisciplinary team consisting of plastic surgery, maxillofacial surgery and interventional radiology currently treats such lesions by converting liquid sclerosant into foam. Foam sclerotherapy is currently used successfully to treat varicosities of the lower limbs and in this study, we present four cases in which 3% sodium tetradecyl sulfate has been used to treat low-flow vascular malformations in the head and neck.

Meteorological influences on the seasonality of Lyme disease in the United States

Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi infection) is the most common vector-transmitted disease in the United States. The majority of human Lyme disease (LD) cases occur in the summer months, but the timing of the peak occurrence varies geographically and from year to year. We calculated the beginning, peak, end, and duration of the main LD season in 12 highly endemic states from 1992 to 2007 and then examined the association between the timing of these seasonal variables and several meteorological variables. An earlier beginning to the LD season was positively associated with higher cumulative growing degree days through Week 20, lower cumulative precipitation, a lower saturation deficit, and proximity to the Atlantic coast. The timing of the peak and duration of the LD season were also associated with cumulative growing degree days, saturation deficit, and cumulative precipitation, but no meteorological predictors adequately explained the timing of the end of the LD season.

Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda

Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

The Role of Weather in Meningitis Outbreaks in Navrongo, Ghana: A Generalized Additive Modeling Approach

Bacterial (meningococcal) meningitis is a devastating infectious disease with outbreaks occurring annually during the dry season in locations within the 'Meningitis Belt', a region in sub-Saharan Africa stretching from Ethiopia to Senegal. Meningococcal meningitis occurs from December to May in the Sahel with large epidemics every 5-10 years and attack rates of up to 1000 infections per 100,000 people. High temperatures coupled with low humidity may favor the conversion of carriage to disease as the meningococcal bacteria in the nose and throat are better able to cross the mucosal membranes into the blood stream. Similarly, respiratory diseases such as influenza and pneumonia might weaken the immune defenses and add to the mucosa damage. Although the transmission dynamics are poorly understood, outbreaks regularly end with the onset of the rainy season and may begin anew with the following dry season. In this paper, we employ a generalized additive modeling approach to assess the association between number of reported meningitis cases and a set of weather variables (relative humidity, rain, wind, sunshine, maximum and minimum temperature). The association is adjusted for air quality (dust, carbon monoxide), as well as varying degrees of unobserved time-varying confounding processes that co-vary with both the disease incidence and weather. We present the analysis of monthly reported meningitis counts in Navrongo, Ghana, from 1998-2008.

Percutaneous sclerotherapy of vascular malformations in children using sodium tetradecyl sulphate: the Birmingham experience

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Sclerotherapy has become first line treatment for most venous malformations and some lymphatic malformations. We aimed to measure our sclerotherapy treatment success using 3% sodium tetradecyl sulphate (STD) and describe our experience.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective five year review (Jan 04-09) of children with vascular malformations treated at our centre with 3% STD. Patients were classified using the Birmingham classification and treatment success was measured through case note review and pre- and post-treatment photographs. FINDINGS AND RESULTS: Forty-three (84.3%) of the 51 patients with vascular malformations (VM) who underwent sclerotherapy derived a benefit. Twelve patients (23.5%) had an excellent result, 31 (60.8%) were improved whilst eight (15.7%) were unchanged. Using Fisher's exact test, there was a statistically significant difference in achieving complete resolution of superficial VMs compared to lesions involving the deeper layers of the head and neck. 17.6% of patients developed a complication with an overall complication rate of 12.2% per injection. There was one major complication with the remainder consisting of superficial skin necrosis that resolved conservatively.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with 3% STD sclerotherapy is effective in venous and some lymphatic vascular malformations. It should be considered an important treatment modality within a multi-disciplinary setting in these difficult problems.

Flea diversity as an element for persistence of plague bacteria in an East African plague focus

Plague is a flea-borne rodent-associated zoonotic disease that is caused by Yersinia pestis and characterized by long quiescent periods punctuated by rapidly spreading epidemics and epizootics. How plague bacteria persist during inter-epizootic periods is poorly understood, yet is important for predicting when and where epizootics are likely to occur and for designing interventions aimed at local elimination of the pathogen. Existing hypotheses of how Y. pestis is maintained within plague foci typically center on host abundance or diversity, but little attention has been paid to the importance of flea diversity in enzootic maintenance. Our study compares host and flea abundance and diversity along an elevation gradient that spans from low elevation sites outside of a plague focus in the West Nile region of Uganda (~725-1160 m) to higher elevation sites within the focus (~1380-1630 m). Based on a year of sampling, we showed that host abundance and diversity, as well as total flea abundance on hosts was similar between sites inside compared with outside the plague focus. By contrast, flea diversity was significantly higher inside the focus than outside. Our study highlights the importance of considering flea diversity in models of Y. pestis persistence.