Incretin-based drugs and hospitalization for heart failure in the clinical practice: A nested case-control study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There are concerns that incretin-based antidiabetic drugs - including dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists - increase the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HF). To further analyse this issue, we conducted a nested case-control study within a cohort of antidiabetic users in a real world setting.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Within a cohort of 133,639 subjects with a first prescription of an antidiabetic drug (new-users) between 2010 and 2016 in Lombardy, Italy, and were followed-up to 2016, we identified 4057 subjects with a first hospitalization for HF and 80,450 controls matched on sex, age, and date of cohort-entry. The multivariate odds ratios (ORs) of HF in relation to current use of incretin-based drugs as compared to current use of two or more oral antidiabetics was 1.06 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.83-1.35), with no evidence of a trend in risk with increasing duration of use. The corresponding ORs were 1.10 (95% CI 0.85-1.41) for DPP-4 inhibitors and 0.84 (95% CI 0.48-1.47) for GLP-1 receptor agonists. Estimates were consistent in various sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that incretin-based drugs are not associated with an increased risk of hospitalization for HF, thus providing further reassurance on the cardiovascular safety of these antidiabetic drugs in the clinical practice.

Cancer Mortality in Broad Italian Geographical Areas, 1975-1977

Death certification rates from various cancers or groups of cancers in broad Italian geographical areas (North/Center/South) over the period 1975-1977 were analyzed. In both sexes, there was a clear North/South gradient, with considerably higher rates in the North for total cancer mortality as well as for most common neoplasms. The geographical variation was more marked in males (North/South ratio for total cancer mortality = 1.75 at all ages and 1.70 truncated 35-64 years) than in females (ratio = 1.48 at all ages and 1.28 truncated 35-64). Although, in general terms, the present results confirm previous analyses of cancer mortality in Italy, a few interesting tendencies should be noted. First, the geographical differences in the mid-late 1970's were much more marked for tobacco-related cancers (a factor of over two in males in the North/South ratio) than for other chiefly epithelial carcinomas or nonepithelial cancers. In general, variations for nontobacco-related cancers tended to level off over more recent calendar periods. However, there was little tendency towards decreasing differences in gastric cancer mortality (which was markedly elevated in the North and Center), at least in males. During the 1970's death certification rates from cancer of the (cervix) uteri decreased in northern and central more than in southern Italy. This pattern of trends may have been influenced by a different impact of cervical screening in various areas of the country.

Patterns of Large Bowel Cancer by Subsite, Age, Sex and Marital Status

Incident cases of large bowel cancer from the Swiss canton of Vaud over the period 1974–88 were analyzed in relation to the distribution of site by sex, age, marital status and detailed subsite. A total of 1,968 cases were registered in males and 1,958 in females, corresponding to overall age-standardized (world) rates of 32.2/100,000 males and 22.4/100,000 females. The frequency of ascending and transverse colon cancer was lower in males (18.2 % and 9.3 %) than in females (23.1 % and 10.0 %, respectively), but cancers of the sigmoid colon and rectum were proportionally more frequent in males (34.0 and 30.0 % versus 29.9 and 24.6 % in females). Anal cancer accounted for 4.0% of large bowel cancers in females, but only 1.2% in males. Analysis of age-specific rates showed comparable values for ascending colon cancer in both sexes and in relation to each subsequent age group, as well as in sigmoid and rectal cancers up to middle age, while a male excess for the latter cancers became evident after age 55. A female excess for anal cancer was apparent in any subsequent age group. Information on marital status was available on 2,398 deceased subjects. Never married cases occounted for 12.2 % of women and 8.1 % of males. The excess of unmarried women was somewhat larger in the colon than in the sigma and rectum groups, but there was no evidence of excess of never married females for anal cancer. These data confirm that there are appreciable inter-sex heterogeneities in the descriptive epidemiology of various subsites of large bowel cancer, as well as complex interactions between sex and age, which may be related to female hormone correlates of intestinal carcinogenesis. Whatever the main biological mechanism(s), these data show noticeable similarities for both sexes in the descriptive epidemiology of cancers arising in the left colon and rectum, but noticeable differences with the right colon. Even more substantial are the differences with anal cancer, which should be linked to its venereal correlates.

Smoking in Italy, 1986-1987

Smoking trends and patterns in Italy were evaluated using data from the 1986-87 Italian National Health Survey, based on a sample of 30,096 males and 32,176 females aged 15 or over, randomly selected within strata of geographical areas and sizes of the place of residence and of the household in order to be representative of the whole Italian population: 40.8 % of Italian males and 17.3 % of females described themselves as current smokers (overall estimated prevalence, 28.6 %). In comparison with previous survey-based data, self-reported smoking prevalence in males has been steadily decreasing over the last three decades, whereas rates in females have been increasing up to the early 1980s, and have shown a levelling off only in more recent years. The apparent declines in self-reported smoking, however, were not reflected in official sales figures. In fact, in the mid 1980s, there were simultaneously the lowest overall prevalence of the last three decades and the highest sales figures ever reported. The inter-sex differences in smoking prevalence were smaller at younger ages. Education, but not occupation as a measure of social class, was inversely related to smoking prevalence in males. Furthermore, rates for males were lower in the northern (and richer) part of the country. The pattern was totally different in females, since smoking prevalence was higher in more educated women, of higher social class, living in North Italy. This suggests that, in the absence of adequate measures, smoking prevalence is likely to rise among Italian women in the near future. Continued monitoring of smoking patterns gives important information with which to identify the most likely future patterns in smoking and smoking-related diseases, besides providing data for targeting intervention programs.

Cancer Mortality in Italy, 1992

Background

Data and statistics are presented on cancer death certification in Italy, updating previous publications covering the period 1955-1991.

Methods

Data for 1992 subdivided into 30 cancer sites are presented in 8 tables, including age- and sex-specific absolute and percentage frequencies of cancer deaths, and crude, age-specific and age-standardized rates, at all ages and truncated for the 35-64 year age group. Male to female ratios have also been tabulated, and trends in age-standardized rates for major cancer sites plotted from 1955 to 1992.

Results

Age-adjusted death certification rates (on the world standard population) for all neoplasms declined from 193.4 in 1991 to 189.8/100,000 males in 1992, and from 100.1 to 99.5/100,000 females. The favorable trends were even more marked in middle and younger age, but not in children below age 15, whose overall age-standardized cancer mortality rates were higher in 1992 than in 1989. Lung cancer was by far the leading site of cancer mortality, with over 30,700 deaths. For the fourth subsequent year, its rates in males declined, to reach 57.0/100,000, but continued to rise in females, to reach 8.0/100,000. Rates for other major cancer sites (intestines, stomach, female breast, prostate, pancreas) were stable or moderately favorable, but some increase was apparent also in 1992 for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma death rates.

Conclusions

Italian cancer mortality rates in 1992 were moderately favorable, with the major exception of the persistent spread of the tobacco-related lung cancer epidemic in females.

Smoking in Italy, 1994

The prevalence of smoking in Italian males and females has been investigated using data from the National Health Survey (first cycle), collected between January and March 1994, and based on a total sample of 13,048 individuals (6,307 males and 6,741 females) representative of the general Italian population. Overall, 24.2% of Italians aged 15 years or over described themselves as current smokers (32.6% of males and 16.3% of females). Ex-smokers were 14.2%, including 22.3% of males and 6.6% of females; never smokers were 61.6% (45.1% of males, 77.1% of females). In both sexes, the highest proportions of smokers were young to middle-aged (35-44 years), and there was a substantial decline in smoking rates in the youngest age group (15-24 years), to reach 19.8% of males and 9.9% of females. A steady and substantial decline in reported smoking prevalence over time was observed in males (from 54.2% in 1980 to 32.6% in 1994), whereas smoking prevalence remained approximately stable around 17% in females. This was due to some increase in smoking prevalence among women over 35 years of age, following a cohort effect, and the low quit rate among females. The average number of cigarettes per smoker per day was slightly up, to reach 18.3 in males and 13.4 in females in 1994. The fall in reported cigarette consumption was only partly reflected in legal sale data, which showed for 1993 a consumption of 1.86 kg per adult per year, corresponding to 5.1 cigarettes per day. Taking into account also smuggling, this indicates that interview-based figures were underestimated by at least 25%. In males, but not in females, smoking was less frequent in northern and more developed areas of the country and among more educated individuals. Among Italians with a university degree, smoking rates were for the first time higher in females (31.5%) than in males (23.7%). Thus, the data from the 1994 National Health Survey confirm the long-term decline in smoking prevalence among Italian males, in the absence however of appreciable changes in females.

Cancer Mortality in Italy, 1994, and an Overview of Trends from 1955 to 1994

Background

Data and statistics are presented on cancer death certification in Italy, updating previous publications covering the period 1955-1993.

Methods

Data for 1994 and the quinquennium 1990-94 subdivided into 30 cancer sites are presented in 8 tables, including age- and sex-specific absolute and percentage frequencies of cancer deaths, and crude, age-specific and age-standardized rates, at all ages and truncated for the 35-64 year age group. Trends in age-standardized rates for major cancer sites are plotted from 1955 to 1994.

Results

The age-standardized (world standard) death certification rates from all neoplasms steadily declined from the peak of 199.2/100,000 males in 1988 to 186.3 in 1994, and in females from 102.5 in 1989 to 98.6 in 1994. Ever larger was the decline in truncated rates, for males from the peak of 275.1/100,000 in 1983 to 223.2 (-19%) in 1994, and for females from 151.6/100,000 in 1987 to 136.4 (-10%). A major component of the favourable cancer mortality trends in males was lung cancer (accounting for 31,000 deaths in both sexes combined in 1994), whose overall age-standardized rates declined from 60.3 in 1987-89 to 54.6/100,000 males in 1994 (-9%), and from the peak of 96.7 in 1983 at ages 35 to 64 to 72.7 in 1994 (-25%). In contrast, female lung cancer rates have remained stable from 1992 onwards, but have increased from 7.2 to 7.7 at all ages and from 10.6 to 11.0 at age 35-64 between 1985-89 and 1990-94. These different trends in the two sexes reflect the patterns and trends in smoking among Italian males and females.

Conclusions

Cancer mortality trends in Italy over the period 1990-94 were relatively favourable, mainly reflecting the decline in lung cancer rates in males, together with the persistent declines in gastric cancer in both sexes and in cervix uteri for women. Continuous advancements were registered for neoplasms amenable to treatment, essentially testicular cancer, Hodgkin's disease and childhood leukaemias. The major unfavourable trends were observed for non Hodgkin's lymphomas, and require therefore further monitoring, besides a clearer understanding of their determinants. Italy maintains an intermediate level of cancer mortality on a European scale, suggesting that further progress is possible, mostly for tobacco-related neoplasms in males.

Smoking in Italy, 1990-1991

Smoking prevalence and patterns in Italy were analyzed using data from the 1990-1991 Italian National Health Survey, based on a sample of 27, 135 males and 28,854 females aged 15 years or over, randomly selected within strata of geographic area and size of the place of residence and of the household, in order to be representative of the general Italian population. Overall, 26.9% of the Italians aged 15 years or over described themselves as current smokers (37.2% males, 17.4% females), and 14.0% as ex-smokers (22.2% males, 6.4% females). The difference in smoking prevalence between males and females was 65% below age 45, but increased substantially with increasing age up to 5-fold above age 65. Moderate smokers (< 15 cigarettes per day) were 12.6% of males and 10.4% of females, intermediate smokers (15 to 24 cigarettes per day) 17.7% of males and 5.5% of females, and heavy smokers (> 25 cigarettes per day) 6.3% of males and 1.5% of females. Pipe or cigar smokers were 0.6% of males. The averange number of cigarettes per smoker per day was 16.6 (17.9 for males, 14.0 for females). The overall smoking prevalence of 26.9% was the lowest registered since 1949, thus confirming the long-term steady decline of smoking, particularly among males. Smoking prevalence, however, has remained constant over the last 15 years among females, after substantial rises in previous calendar years. These falls in overall self-reported smoking prevalence were reflected in declines of legal sale figures (-15% between 1986 and 1991), although it is difficult to quantify the impact of smuggling on total tobacco consumption. Thus, at least part of the falls in self-reported tobacco consumption is attributable to increased underreporting. In males, but not in females, smoking was less frequent in northern (and wealthier) areas of the country, and in more educated individuals. The opposite pattern was observed in females, indicating that even more educated Italian women have not yet recognized the accumulated evidence on the health consequences of smoking. These patterns in smoking are reflected by recent trends in lung cancer, which show some decline in males but persistent upward trends in females, although still on much lower absolute values.

Mortality from Skin Melanoma in Italy and Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region, 1970-1989

Aims and background

Substantial upward trends for skin cancer mortality have been observed in most European countries in the last two decades. The distinction, however, between cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and non-melanomatous skin cancers on the basis of death certification is unreliable

Methods

In order to assess the trends of CMM, analysis of the specific code for CMM (International Classification of Disease VIII and IX:172) was coupled with analysis of total skin cancer mortality rates, standardized on the 1981 Italian Census population, at all ages and in selected age groups (15-44, 45-64 and 65-84 years). The analyses were carried out for the whole of Italy and for Friuli-Venezia Giulia (FVG), a region in North-East Italy with a high proportion of fair-complexioned individuals, elevated frequency of sunbathing, and especially good diagnostic standards.

Results

In 1985-89 skin cancer mortality rates in men at all ages, as compared to 1970-74, were 33% higher in Italy and 46% higher in FVG. In women, there was a rise of 22% in Italy and 94% in FVG. More marked upward trends were observed in young and middle aged adults, especially among women in FVG (over 300% increase). In absolute terms, approximately 3000 more Italians died from skin cancers in 1985-89 as compared to 1970-74, about half of them prematurely (i.e., < 65 years). CMM was mentioned in death certifications for skin cancer increasingly often in all age groups, particularly in FVG.

Conclusions

The analysis of mortality trends from skin cancer is consistent with a substantial rise of CMM-related deaths. The sensitivity of death certification with respect to CMM diagnosis is also increasing, especially in FVG. A public health strategy with the aim of reducing intermittent intense exposure to ultraviolet light, especially in children, is urgent in Italy as CMM represents one of the few causes of premature death with unfavorable trends.

Some Further Consideration on the Role of Oral Contraceptives in Breast Carcinogenesis

Available evidence concerning oral contraceptives and their potential interaction with reproductive history on breast cancer risk Is reviewed. The relative risks in 15 out of 15 studies were above unity among younger women (i.e., below age 35 and perhaps up to 45) for long-term oral contraceptive use, although apparent heterogeneities emerged in the risk estimates. The overall evidence is reassuring in subsequent age groups, whereas the modifying effects or interactions between oral contraceptives, reproductive factors and breast cancer risk are still largely undefined. Thus we suggest that, besides chance and bias, the apparent discrepancies between various studies should be considered within the framework of the complex time- and age-effects of hormone-related risk factors on breast carcinogenesis.

Cancer Survival from the Incident Cases of the Registry of Vaud, Switzerland

Survival statistics from the incident cases of the Vaud Cancer Registry over the period 1974–1980 were computed on the basis of an active follow-up based on verification of vital status as to December 31, 1984. Product-moment crude and relative 5 to 10 year rates are presented in separate strata of sex, age and area of residence (urban or rural). Most of the rates are comparable with those in other published series from North America or Europe, but survival from gastric cancer (24% 5-year relative rates) tended to be higher, and that from bladder cancer (about 30 %) lower than in most other datasets. No significant difference in survival emerged according to residence in urban Lausanne vs surrounding (rural) areas. Interesting indications according to subsite (higher survival for the pyloric region vs the gastric fundus, but absence of substantial differences for various colon subsites), histology (higher rates for squamous carcinomas of the lung, seminomas of the testis or chronic lymphatic leukemias as compared with other histotypes), or site of origin (higher survival for lower limb melanomas), require further quantitative assessment from other population-based series. A Cox proportional hazard model applied to melanomatous skin cancers showed an Independent favorable effect on long-term prognosis of female gender and adverse implications for advanced age, stage at diagnosis and tumor site other than lower limb.

Pattern of Cervical Screening Utilization in Italy

The pattern of cervical screening utilization in Italy was analyzed using data from the 1986-1987 National Health Survey on the basis of a sample of 27,455 women aged 20 to 79 randomly selected within strata of municipality of residence and age in order to be representative of the whole Italian population. Overall, about 17% of women aged 20 to 79 were screened per year, for a total of 3.5 to 4 million cervical smears per year. The highest frequency was reported in younger middle age, about one in four women being screened per year in the age groups 30 to 49, and there was a substantial decline above age 50. Cervical smear rates were higher in Northern areas (22 %), where mortality from cervical cancer is lower, than in the Centre (16%) and South (11 %) of the country. Further, there was a strong positive social class gradient in the utilization of cervical screening, in relation to both education and occupation. In spite of the absence of any organised mass screening program, cervical screening is a relatively common procedure among Italian women. However, this study provides further quantitative evidence of a markedly irrational utilization of non-organized cervical screening, which tends to end up selectively used by the groups in which cervical cancer is less common.

Trends in Childhood Cancer Mortality in Italy, 1955-78

Trends in childhood cancer death rates in Italy from 1955 to 1978 were analyzed. All cancer age-standardized mortality below age 15 fell about 20%, with a clear downward trend since the early 1970's. Declines were evident for leukemias (–25%), Hodgkin's disease (–56%), non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (–27%), kidney cancer (–25%), retinoblastoma (–50%), and bone sarcomas (–31%), for a total number of about 200-250 fewer deaths per year in the late 1970's compared to the expected values using rates of the 1950's. The observed fall was apparently confined within the first age group considered (0-4 years), but the age-specific patterns of trend were partly influenced by simple postponement of some deaths to older age groups. Comparisons with similar data in other developed countries suggest that, although there has undoubtedly been some progress, there is still wide scope for further reduction in childhood cancer mortality in Italy, simply through more rational use of currently available diagnostic and therapeutic knowledge.

The Influence of Female Hormones on Malignant Melanoma

Several lines of biological evidence have suggested a relationship between the behaviour of melanocytes and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and the action of female hormones. The present overview, however, indicates that the effect of reproductive, menstrual and hormonal factors, including oral contraceptives, on onset and outcome of CMM must be very weak, if any. The only consistent findings which may suggest a role of female hormones on CMM seem to be: 1) a different distribution by anatomic site in men and women, and 2) a more favorable outcome of CMM in women as compared to men. Neither of them, however, necessarily implies a direct effect of female hormones on CMM.

Characteristics of Women Reporting Cervical Screening

The characteristics of women reporting cervical cytology screening has been evaluated using data from control subjects collected in the framework of a case-control study on invasive cervical cancer conducted since 1981 in the greater Milan area. A total of 515 women admitted for nonneoplastic, non-gynecologic, nonendocrine-related acute conditions to a network of general and university hospitals were interviewed. The frequency of cervical screening utilization decreased with age: regular screening (≥ 3 lifetime Pap smears) was reported by 46% of women aged 44 years or less, but only 11% of those aged 65 or more. Married women reported about 50% more frequently occasional (1 or 2) and about three times regular (≥ 3) cervical screening than unmarried ones. Parous women were more frequently screened, but no trend emerged with number of births. Similarly number of medical consultations in the year before the interview was associated with an increased number of Pap smears. There was no consistent association between number or recency of Pap smears and smoking, sexual habits or education, but women in low social classes tended to be less frequently screened. Ever contraceptive users (oral contraceptives or barrier methods) reported an increased probability to be screened regularly and within two years before the interview.