Mortality Risk in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Transitioning to Dialysis: Impact of Opiate and Non-Opiate Use

BACKGROUND

Population-based studies show there is a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients suffering from chronic pain. While opiates are frequently prescribed in non-dialysis-dependent CKD (NDD-CKD) patients, there may be toxic accumulation of metabolites, particularly among those progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We examined the association of opiate versus other analgesic use during the pre-ESRD period with post-ESRD mortality among NDD-CKD patients transitioning to dialysis.

METHODS

We examined a national cohort of US Veterans with NDD-CKD who transitioned to dialysis over 2007-14. Among patients who received ≥1 prescription(s) in the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System within 1 year of transitioning to dialysis, we examined associations of pre-ESRD analgesic status, defined as opiate, gabapentin/pregabalin, other non-opiate analgesic, versus no analgesic use, with post-ESRD mortality using multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

Among 57,764 patients who met eligibility criteria, pre-ESRD opiate and gabapentin/pregabalin use were each associated with higher post-ESRD mortality (ref: no analgesic use), whereas non-opiate analgesic use was not associated with higher mortality in expanded case-mix analyses: HRs (95% CIs) 1.07 (1.05-1.10), 1.07 (1.01-1.13), and 1.00 (0.94-1.06), respectively. In secondary analyses, increasing frequency of opiate prescriptions exceeding 1 opiate prescription in the 1-year pre-ESRD period was associated with incrementally higher post-ESRD mortality (ref: no analgesic use).

CONCLUSIONS

In NDD-CKD patients transitioning to dialysis, pre-ESRD opiate and gabapentin/pregabalin use were associated with higher post-ESRD mortality, whereas non-opiate analgesic use was not associated with death. There was a graded association between increasing frequency of pre-ESRD opiate use and incrementally higher mortality.

Plant-Dominant Low-Protein Diet for Conservative Management of Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects >10% of the adult population. Each year, approximately 120,000 Americans develop end-stage kidney disease and initiate dialysis, which is costly and associated with functional impairments, worse health-related quality of life, and high early-mortality rates, exceeding 20% in the first year. Recent declarations by the World Kidney Day and the U.S. Government Executive Order seek to implement strategies that reduce the burden of kidney failure by slowing CKD progression and controlling uremia without dialysis. Pragmatic dietary interventions may have a role in improving CKD outcomes and preventing or delaying dialysis initiation. Evidence suggests that a patient-centered plant-dominant low-protein diet (PLADO) of 0.6–0.8 g/kg/day composed of >50% plant-based sources, administered by dietitians trained in non-dialysis CKD care, is promising and consistent with the precision nutrition. The scientific premise of the PLADO stems from the observations that high protein diets with high meat intake not only result in higher cardiovascular disease risk but also higher CKD incidence and faster CKD progression due to increased intraglomerular pressure and glomerular hyperfiltration. Meat intake increases production of nitrogenous end-products, worsens uremia, and may increase the risk of constipation with resulting hyperkalemia from the typical low fiber intake. A plant-dominant, fiber-rich, low-protein diet may lead to favorable alterations in the gut microbiome, which can modulate uremic toxin generation and slow CKD progression, along with reducing cardiovascular risk. PLADO is a heart-healthy, safe, flexible, and feasible diet that could be the centerpiece of a conservative and preservative CKD-management strategy that challenges the prevailing dialysis-centered paradigm.

Predictors of long ECMO runs for congenital diaphragmatic hernia

BACKGROUND

Although longer ECMO run times for patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) have been associated with worse outcomes, a large study has not been conducted to examine the risk factors for long ECMO runs.

METHODS

The Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) Registry from 2000 to 2015 was used to identify predictors of long ECMO runs in CDH patients. A long run was any duration of ≥14 days. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association between demographics, pre-ECMO blood gas/ventilator settings, comorbid conditions, and therapies on long ECMO runs.

RESULTS

There were 4730 CDH-infants examined. The largest association with long ECMO runs was on-ECMO repair (OR: 3.72, 95% CI: 3.013-4.602, p < 0.001) and the use of THAM (OR: 1.463, 95% CI: 1.062-2.016, p = 0.02). Each drop in pH quartile was associated with an increased risk of long ECMO run: pH ≥ 7.3 (reference), pH 7.2-7.9 (OR 1.24, 95% CI: 0.98-1.57, p = 0.07), pH 7.08-7.19 (OR 1.46, 95% CI: 1.17-1.84, p = 0.001), pH ≤ 7.07 (OR 1.64, 95% CI: 1.29-2.07, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a correlation between both pre-ECMO demographics/timing of repair and the subsequent risk of long ECMO runs, providing insight for both providers and parents about the risk factors for longer runs.

TYPE OF STUDY

Treatment Study.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

The development of multiorgan dysfunction in CDH-ECMO neonates is associated with the level of pre-ECMO support

PURPOSE

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is the most common indication for neonatal extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), but mortality remains at 50%. Multiorgan failure can occur in 25% and has been linked to worse outcomes. We sought to examine the factors that would increase the risk of multiorgan dysfunction (MOD).

METHODS

The Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) database was used to identify infants with CDH (2000-2015). The primary outcome was MOD, which was defined as the presence of organ failure in ≥2 organ systems. We used a multivariable logistic regression to examine the effect of demographics, pre-ECMO respiratory status, comorbidities, and therapies on MOD.

RESULTS

There were a total of 4374 CDH infants who were treated with ECMO. Overall mortality was 52.4%. The risk models demonstrated that pre-ECMO cardiac arrest (OR 1.458, CI: 1.146-1.861, p = 0.002) and hand-bagging (OR 1.461, CI: 1.094-1.963, p = 0.032) had the strongest association with MOD. In addition, other pre-ECMO indicators of disease severity (pH, HFOV, MAP, 5-min APGAR) and pre-ECMO therapies (bicarb, neuromuscular [NM] blockers) were also associated with MOD.

CONCLUSIONS

The level of pre-ECMO support has a significant association with the development of MOD, and initiation of ECMO prior to arrest seems to be critical to avoid complications.

TYPE OF STUDY

Treatment study.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

Profiling dialysis facilities for adverse recurrent events

Profiling analysis aims to evaluate health care providers, such as hospitals, nursing homes, or dialysis facilities, with respect to a patient outcome. Previous profiling methods have considered binary outcomes, such as 30-day hospital readmission or mortality. For the unique population of dialysis patients, regular blood works are required to evaluate effectiveness of treatment and avoid adverse events, including dialysis inadequacy, imbalance mineral levels, and anemia among others. For example, anemic events (when hemoglobin levels exceed normative range) are recurrent and common for patients on dialysis. Thus, we propose high-dimensional Poisson and negative binomial regression models for rate/count outcomes and introduce a standardized event ratio measure to compare the event rate at a specific facility relative to a chosen normative standard, typically defined as an "average" national rate across all facilities. Our proposed estimation and inference procedures overcome the challenge of high-dimensional parameters for thousands of dialysis facilities. Also, we investigate how overdispersion affects inference in the context of profiling analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated with profiling dialysis facilities for recurrent anemia events.

Association of thyroid status prior to transition to end-stage renal disease with early dialysis mortality

BACKGROUND

Advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, including those receiving dialysis, have a high prevalence of thyroid dysfunction. Although hypothyroidism is associated with higher death risk in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, no studies have examined whether thyroid status in the pre-ESRD period impacts mortality after dialysis initiation.

METHODS

Among US veterans with CKD identified from the national Veterans Affairs database that transitioned to dialysis over the period from October 2007 to September 2011, we examined the association of pre-ESRD serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels averaged over the 1-year pre-dialysis ('prelude') period with all-cause mortality in the first year following dialysis initiation.

RESULTS

Among 15 335 patients in the 1-year prelude cohort, TSH levels >5.0 mIU/L were associated with higher mortality in expanded case-mix Cox models (reference: TSH 0.5-5.0 mIU/L): adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 (1.07-1.33). Similar findings were observed for TSH >5.0 mIU/L and mortality in the 2- and 5-year cohorts: aHRs (95% CI) 1.11 (1.02-1.21) and 1.15 (1.07-1.24), respectively. Analyses of finer gradations of TSH in the 1-year prelude cohort demonstrated that incrementally higher levels >5.0 mIU/L were associated with increasingly higher mortality in expanded case-mix models (reference: TSH 0.5-3.0 mIU/L): aHRs (95% CI) 1.18 (1.04-1.33) and 1.28 (1.03-1.59) for TSH levels >5.0-10.0 mIU/L and >10.0 mIU/L, respectively. In the 2- and 5-year cohorts, mortality associations persisted most strongly for those with TSH >10.0 mIU/L, particularly after laboratory covariate adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

Among new ESRD patients, there is a dose-dependent relationship between higher pre-ESRD TSH levels >5.0 mIU/L and post-ESRD mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of TSH reduction with thyroid hormone supplementation in this population.

A multilevel mixed effects varying coefficient model with multilevel predictors and random effects for modeling hospitalization risk in patients on dialysis

For patients on dialysis, hospitalizations remain a major risk factor for mortality and morbidity. We use data from a large national database, United States Renal Data System, to model time-varying effects of hospitalization risk factors as functions of time since initiation of dialysis. To account for the three-level hierarchical structure in the data where hospitalizations are nested in patients and patients are nested in dialysis facilities, we propose a multilevel mixed effects varying coefficient model (MME-VCM) where multilevel (patient- and facility-level) random effects are used to model the dependence structure of the data. The proposed MME-VCM also includes multilevel covariates, where baseline demographics and comorbidities are among the patient-level factors, and staffing composition and facility size are among the facility-level risk factors. To address the challenge of high-dimensional integrals due to the hierarchical structure of the random effects, we propose a novel two-step approximate EM algorithm based on the fully exponential Laplace approximation. Inference for the varying coefficient functions and variance components is achieved via derivation of the standard errors using score contributions. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure is studied through simulations.

The Impact of Race and Ethnicity Upon Health-Related Quality of Life and Mortality in Dialysis Patients

Rationale & Objective

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been recognized as a strong predictor of mortality among hemodialysis patients. However, differences in the association of HRQoL with survival across diverse racial/ethnic groups have not been well studied in this population.

Study Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting & Participants

We examined the relationship between HRQoL and mortality in a prospective cohort of racially/ethnically diverse hemodialysis patients recruited from 18 outpatient dialysis units during 2011 to 2016.

Exposure

Using the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) administered every 6 months, HRQoL was ascertained by 36 questions summarized as 2 Physical and Mental Component and 8 subscale scores.

Outcome

All-cause mortality.

Analytical Approach

Associations of time-varying SF-36 scores with mortality were estimated using Cox models in the overall cohort and within racial/ethnic subgroups.

Results

Among 753 hemodialysis patients who met eligibility criteria, expanded case-mix analyses showed that the lowest quartiles of time-varying Physical and Mental Component scores were associated with higher mortality in the overall cohort (reference: highest quartile): adjusted HRs, 2.30 (95% CI, 1.53-3.47) and 1.54 (95% CI, 1.05-2.25), respectively. In analyses stratified by race/ethnicity, the lowest quartile of Physical Component scores was significantly associated with higher mortality across all groups: adjusted HRs, 2.64 (95% CI, 1.31-5.29), 1.84 (95% CI, 1.01-3.38), and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.13-8.91) for Hispanic, African American, and other race/ethnicity patients, respectively. The lowest quartile of time-varying physical functioning, role limitations due to physical health, role limitations due to emotional problems, social functioning, and pain subscale scores were associated with higher mortality in the overall cohort and particularly in Hispanics and blacks.

Limitations

Residual confounding cannot be excluded.

Conclusions

Lower SF-36 Physical Component and subscale scores were associated with higher mortality in hemodialysis patients, including those of minority background. Further studies are needed to determine whether interventions that augment physical health might improve the survival of these diverse populations.

Potential survival benefit with repair of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) after extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) in select patients: Study by ELSO CDH Interest Group

PURPOSE

Studying the timing of repair in CDH is prone to confounding factors, including variability in disease severity and management. We hypothesized that delaying repair until post-ECMO would confer a survival benefit.

METHODS

Neonates who underwent CDH repair were identified within the ELSO Registry. Patients were then divided into on-ECMO versus post-ECMO repair. Patients were 1:1 matched for severity based on pre-ECMO covariates using the propensity score (PS) for the timing of repair. Outcomes examined included mortality and severe neurologic injury (SNI).

RESULTS

After matching, 2,224 infants were included. On-ECMO repair was associated with greater than 3-fold higher odds of mortality (OR 3.41, 95% CI: 2.84-4.09, p<0.01). The odds of SNI was also higher for on-ECMO repair (OR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.13-1.96, p<0.01). A sensitivity analysis was performed by including the length of ECMO as an additional matching variable. On-ECMO repair was still associated with higher odds of mortality (OR 2.38, 95% CI: 1.96-2.89, p<0.01). Results for SNI were similar but were no longer statistically significant (OR 1.33, 95% CI: 0.99-1.79, p=0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Of the infants who can be liberated from ECMO and undergo CDH repair, there is a potential survival benefit for delaying CDH repair until after decannulation.

TYPE OF STUDY

Treatment Study LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.

Management preferences in ECMO mode for congenital diaphragmatic hernia

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to identify management preferences that may exist in the care of infants with CDH receiving ECMO with emphasis on VV-ECMO.

METHODS

A survey was created to measure treatment preferences regarding ECMO use in CDH. The survey was distributed to all APSA and ELSO/Euro-ELSO members via e-mail. Survey results were summarized using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

The survey had 230 respondents. The survey participants were surgeons (75%), neonatologists/intensivists (23%), and "other" (2%). The mean annual center volume was 11.6(±9.6) CDH cases, and the average number treated with ECMO was 4.5 (±6.4) cases/yr. The most agreed upon criteria for ECMO initiation were preductal O₂ saturation <80% refractory to ventilator manipulation and medical therapy (89%), oxygenation index >40 (80%), severe air-leak (79%), and mixed acidosis (75%). Over 60% of respondents agreed the VV-ECMO would be optimum for average risk neonates. However, this preference diminished as the pre-ECMO level of cardiac support increased. When asked about why each respondent would choose VA-ECMO over VV-ECMO, the responses varied significantly between surgeons and non-surgeons.

CONCLUSION

While there seem to be areas of consensus among practitioners, such as criteria for initiation of ECMO, this survey revealed substantial variation in individual practice patterns regarding the use of ECMO for CDH.

TYPE OF STUDY

Qualitative, Survey.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV.

Cognitive training for children and adolescents with fragile X syndrome: a randomized controlled trial of Cogmed

BACKGROUND

Individuals with fragile X syndrome (FXS) typically demonstrate profound executive function (EF) deficits that interfere with learning, socialization, and emotion regulation. We completed the first large, non-pharmacological controlled trial for FXS, designed to evaluate the efficacy of Cogmed, a computer/tablet-based working memory (WM) training program.

METHODS

The study was a randomized, blinded, parallel two-arm controlled trial in 100 children and adolescents with FXS (63 male, 37 female; 15.28 ± 3.36 yrs.). Participants were randomized equally to adaptive (difficulty level adjusted to performance) or non-adaptive (control) Cogmed training. Participants were assessed at home using objective measures of WM (primary outcome) and EF at baseline, following 20-25 caregiver-supported sessions over 5-6 weeks, and at follow-up 3 months after cessation of training. Parents and teachers provided ratings of WM, attention, and EF.

RESULTS

The WM composite and selective domains of EF (distractibility, cognitive flexibility), as well as parent- and teacher-reported attention and EF, significantly improved across the full study sample, with many changes maintained at follow-up. However, comparisons of improvement between adaptive and non-adaptive control conditions did not differ, showing that progressively challenging the WM system by expanding span length did not provide added benefit overall.

CONCLUSIONS

Further experimental comparisons are needed before Cogmed working memory training can be considered empirically validated for children with FXS, forming the basis of treatment recommendation. However, given that prior studies show no significant changes on these measures in FXS without treatment, that improvements were maintained for 3 months, and that blinded teachers reported improvements in the classroom, the modest benefits seen in both adaptive and non-adaptive groups overall are unlikely to be attributable to placebo or practice effects alone. Future analyses examining inter-individual differences (e.g., baseline capacity, training efficiency, co-morbidity, training environment, characteristics of training aide) may help to link this intervention to outcomes and potential transfer effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

US National Institutes of Health (ClinicalTrials.gov), NCT02747394 .

Performance Characteristics of Profiling Methods and the Impact of Inadequate Case-mix Adjustment

Profiling or evaluation of health care providers involves the application of statistical models to compare each provider's performance with respect to a patient outcome, such as unplanned 30-day hospital readmission, adjusted for patient case-mix characteristics. The nationally adopted method is based on random effects (RE) hierarchical logistic regression models. Although RE models are sensible for modeling hierarchical data, novel high dimensional fixed effects (FE) models have been proposed which may be well-suited for the objective of identifying sub-standard performance. However, there are limited comparative studies. Thus, we examine their relative performance, including the impact of inadequate case-mix adjustment.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Sertraline in Young Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder

Objective: Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors like sertraline have been shown in observational studies and anecdotal reports to improve language development in young children with fragile X syndrome (FXS). A previous controlled trial of sertraline in young children with FXS found significant improvement in expressive language development as measured by the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) among those with comorbid autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in post hoc analysis, prompting the authors to probe whether sertraline is also indicated in nonsyndromic ASD. Methods: The authors evaluated the efficacy of 6 months of treatment with low-dose sertraline in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 58 children with ASD aged 24 to 72 months. Results: 179 subjects were screened for eligibility, and 58 were randomized to sertraline (32) or placebo (26). Eight subjects from the sertraline arm and five from the placebo arm discontinued. Intent-to-treat analysis showed no significant difference from placebo on the primary outcomes (MSEL expressive language raw score and age equivalent combined score) or secondary outcomes. Sertraline was well tolerated, with no difference in side effects between sertraline and placebo groups. No serious adverse events possibly related to study treatment occurred. Conclusion: This randomized controlled trial of sertraline treatment showed no benefit with respect to primary or secondary outcome measures. For the 6-month period, treatment in young children with ASD appears safe, although the long-term side effects of low-dose sertraline in early childhood are unknown. Clinical Trial Registration: www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT02385799.

Modeling time-varying effects of multilevel risk factors of hospitalizations in patients on dialysis

For chronic dialysis patients, a unique population requiring continuous medical care, methodologies to monitor patient outcomes, such as hospitalizations, over time, after initiation of dialysis, are of particular interest. Contributing to patient hospitalizations is a number of multilevel covariates such as demographics and comorbidities at the patient level and staffing composition at the dialysis facility level. We propose a varying coefficient model for multilevel risk factors (VCM-MR) to study the time-varying effects of covariates on patient hospitalization risk as a function of time on dialysis. The proposed VCM-MR also includes subject-specific random effects to account for within-subject correlation and dialysis facility-specific fixed effect varying coefficient functions to allow for the modeling of flexible time-varying facility-specific risk trajectories. An approximate EM algorithm and an iterative Newton-Raphson approach are proposed to address the challenge of estimation of high-dimensional parameters (varying coefficient functions) for thousands of dialysis facilities in the United States. The proposed modeling allows for comparisons between time-varying effects of multilevel risk factors as well as testing of facility-specific fixed effects. The method is applied to model hospitalization risk using the rich hierarchical data available on dialysis patients initiating dialysis between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2008 from the United States Renal Data System, a large national database, where 331 443 hospitalizations over time are nested within patients, and 89 889 patients are nested within 2201 dialysis facilities. Patients are followed-up until December 31, 2013, where the follow-up time is truncated five years after the initiation of dialysis. Finite sample properties are studied through extensive simulations.

Intradialytic hypotension, blood pressure changes and mortality risk in incident hemodialysis patients

Background

Intradialytic hypotension (IDH) occurs frequently in maintenance hemodialysis (HD) patients and may be associated with higher mortality. We hypothesize that nadir intradialytic systolic blood pressure (niSBP) is inversely related to death risk while iSBP change (Δ) and IDH frequency are incrementally associated with all-cause mortality.

Methods

In a US-based cohort of 112 013 incident HD patients over a 5-year period (2007-11), using niSBP, ΔiSBP (pre-HD SBP minus niSBP) and IDH frequency (proportion of HD treatments with niSBP <90 mmHg) within the first 91 days of HD, we examined mortality-predictability at 1, 2 and 5 years using Cox models and restricted cubic splines adjusted for case-mix, comorbidities and laboratory covariates.

Results

We observed that niSBP of <90 and ≥140 mmHg had a 5-year mortality hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval) of 1.57 (1.47-1.67) and 1.25 (1.18-1.33), respectively, compared with niSBP 110 to <120 mmHg. ΔiSBP of <15 and ≥50 compared with 21-30 mmHg had mortality HR of 1.31 (1.26-1.37) and 1.32 (1.24-1.39), respectively. Among patients with >40% IDH frequency, we observed a mortality HR of 1.49 (1.42-1.57) compared with 0% IDH frequency in fully adjusted models. These associations were robust at 1 and 2 years of follow-up.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we observed a U-shaped association between niSBP and ΔiSBP and mortality and a direct linear relationship between IDH frequency and mortality. Our findings lend some prognostic insight of HD blood pressure and hemodynamics, and have the potential to guide blood pressure management strategies among the HD population.

Impact of Case-Mix Measurement Error on Estimation and Inference in Profiling of Health Care Providers

Profiling analysis aims to evaluate health care providers by modeling each provider's performance with respect to a patient outcome, such as unplanned hospital readmission. High-dimensional regression models are used in profiling to risk-adjust for patient case-mix covariates. Case-mix covariates typically ascertained from administrative databases are inherently error-prone. We examine the impact of case-mix measurement error (ME) on profiling models. The results show that even though the models' coefficient estimates are biased, this does not affect the estimation of standardized readmission ratio (SRR). However, ME leads to increased variation in SRR estimates and degrades the ability to identify under-performing providers.

Outcomes of infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia treated with venovenous versus venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: A propensity score approach

PURPOSE

Previous studies comparing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) modality for congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) have not accounted for confounding by indication. We therefore hypothesized that using a propensity score (PS) approach to account for selection bias may identify outcome differences based on ECMO modality for infants with CDH.

METHODS

We utilized ELSO Registry data (2000-2016). Patients with CDH were divided to either venoarterial (VA) or venovenous (VV) ECMO. Patients were matched by PS to control for nonrandom treatment assignment. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on timing of CDH repair relative to ECMO. Primary analysis was the "intent-to-treat" cohort based on the initial ECMO mode. Mortality was the primary outcome, and severe neurologic injury (SNI) was a secondary outcome.

RESULTS

PS matching (3:1) identified 3304 infants (VA = 2470, VV = 834). In the main group, mortality was not different between VA and VV ECMO (OR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.86-1.18) and there was no difference in SNI between VA and VV (OR = 0.80; 95% CI: 0.63-1.01). For the pre-ECMO CDH repair subgroup, 175 VA cases were matched to 70 VV. In these neonates, mortality was higher for VV compared to VA (OR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.19-3.69), without any difference in SNI (OR = 1.48; 95% CI: 0.59-3.71). For the subgroup that did not have pre-ECMO CDH repair, 2030 VA cases were matched to 683 VV cases. In this subgroup, VV was associated with 27% lower risk of SNI relative to VA (OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.56-0.95) without any difference in mortality (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.79-1.11).

CONCLUSION

This study revalidates that ECMO mode does not significantly affect mortality or SNI in infants with CDH. In the subset of infants who require pre-ECMO CDH repair, VA favors survival, whereas, in the subgroup of infants that did not have pre-ECMO CDH repair, VV favors lower rates of SNI. We conclude that neither mode appears consistently superior across all situations, and clinical judgment should remain a multifactorial decision.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

Effect of pump type on outcomes in neonates with congenital diaphragmatic hernia requiring ECMO

PURPOSE

With the exception of neonatal respiratory failure, most centers are now using centrifugal over roller-type pumps for the delivery of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Evidence supporting the use of centrifugal pumps specifically in infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) remains lacking. We hypothesized that the use of centrifugal pumps in infants with CDH would not affect mortality or rates of severe neurologic injury (SNI).

METHODS

Infants with CDH were identified within the ELSO registry (2000-2016). Patients were then divided into those undergoing ECMO with rollertype pumps or centrifugal pumps. Patients were matched based on propensity score (PS) for the ECMO pump type based on pre-ECMO covariates. This was done for all infants and separately for each ECMO mode, venovenous (VV) and venoarterial (VA) ECMO.

RESULTS

We identified 4,367 infants who were treated with either roller or centrifugal pumps from 2000-2016. There was no difference in mortality or SNI between the two pump types in any of the groups (all infants, VA-ECMO infants, VV-ECMO infants). However, there was at least a six-fold increase in the odds of hemolysis for centrifugal pumps in all groups: all infants (odds ratio [OR] 6.99, p<0.001), VA-ECMO infants (OR 8.11, p<0.001 and VV-ECMO infants (OR 9.66, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

For neonates with CDH requiring ECMO, there is no survival advantage or difference in severe neurologic injury between those receiving roller or centrifugal pump ECMO. However, there is a significant increase in red blood cell hemolysis associated with centrifugal ECMO support.

Development and Validation of Prediction Scores for Early Mortality at Transition to Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk prediction model that would help individualize treatment and improve the shared decision-making process between clinicians and patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year of dialysis based on pre-end-stage renal disease characteristics in a cohort of 35,878 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease who transitioned to dialysis treatment between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2014 and then externally validated this tool among 4284 patients in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) health care system who transitioned to dialysis treatment between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2015.

RESULTS

To ensure model goodness of fit, 2 separate models were selected for patients whose last estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before dialysis initiation was less than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher. Model discrimination in the internal validation cohort of veterans resulted in C statistics of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.72) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) among patients with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher, respectively. In the KPSC external validation cohort, the developed risk score exhibited C statistics of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in men and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) in women with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) in men and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in women with eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher.

CONCLUSION

A new risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year after transition to dialysis (available at www.DialysisScore.com) was developed in the large national Veterans Affairs cohort and validated with good performance in the racially, ethnically, and gender diverse KPSC cohort. This risk prediction tool will help identify high-risk populations and guide management strategies at the transition to dialysis.