The association between dietary flavonoid and lignan intakes and incident type 2 diabetes in European populations: the EPIC-InterAct study

OBJECTIVE

To study the association between dietary flavonoid and lignan intakes, and the risk of development of type 2 diabetes among European populations.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct case-cohort study included 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants from among 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up in eight European countries. At baseline, country-specific validated dietary questionnaires were used. A flavonoid and lignan food composition database was developed from the Phenol-Explorer, the U.K. Food Standards Agency, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture databases. Hazard ratios (HRs) from country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression models were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

In multivariable models, a trend for an inverse association between total flavonoid intake and type 2 diabetes was observed (HR for the highest vs. the lowest quintile, 0.90 [95% CI 0.77-1.04]; P value trend = 0.040), but not with lignans (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.72-1.07]; P value trend = 0.119). Among flavonoid subclasses, flavonols (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.69-0.95]; P value trend = 0.020) and flavanols (HR 0.82 [95% CI 0.68-0.99]; P value trend = 0.012), including flavan-3-ol monomers (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.57-0.93]; P value trend = 0.029), were associated with a significantly reduced hazard of diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective findings in this large European cohort demonstrate inverse associations between flavonoids, particularly flavanols and flavonols, and incident type 2 diabetes. This suggests a potential protective role of eating a diet rich in flavonoids, a dietary pattern based on plant-based foods, in the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

Age at menarche and type 2 diabetes risk: the EPIC-InterAct study

OBJECTIVE

Younger age at menarche, a marker of pubertal timing in girls, is associated with higher risk of later type 2 diabetes. We aimed to confirm this association and to examine whether it is explained by adiposity.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study consists of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from 26 research centers across eight European countries. We tested the association between age at menarche and incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression in 15,168 women (n = 5,995 cases). Models were adjusted in a sequential manner for potential confounding and mediating factors, including adult BMI.

RESULTS

Mean menarcheal age ranged from 12.6 to 13.6 years across InterAct countries. Each year later menarche was associated with 0.32 kg/m2 lower adult BMI. Women in the earliest menarche quintile (8-11 years, n = 2,418) had 70% higher incidence of type 2 diabetes compared with those in the middle quintile (13 years, n = 3,634), adjusting for age at recruitment, research center, and a range of lifestyle and reproductive factors (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.49-1.94; P < 0.001). Adjustment for BMI partially attenuated this association (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.18-1.71; P < 0.001). Later menarche beyond the median age was not protective against type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with history of early menarche have higher risk of type 2 diabetes in adulthood. Less than half of this association appears to be mediated by higher adult BMI, suggesting that early pubertal development also may directly increase type 2 diabetes risk.

Age at menopause, reproductive life span, and type 2 diabetes risk: results from the EPIC-InterAct study

OBJECTIVE

Age at menopause is an important determinant of future health outcomes, but little is known about its relationship with type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of menopausal age and reproductive life span (menopausal age minus menarcheal age) with diabetes risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data were obtained from the InterAct study, a prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. A total of 3,691 postmenopausal type 2 diabetic case subjects and 4,408 subcohort members were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up of 11 years. Prentice weighted Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age, known risk factors for diabetes, and reproductive factors, and effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, and smoking was studied.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age of the subcohort was 59.2 (5.8) years. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios (HRs) of type 2 diabetes were 1.32 (95% CI 1.04-1.69), 1.09 (0.90-1.31), 0.97 (0.86-1.10), and 0.85 (0.70-1.03) for women with menopause at ages <40, 40-44, 45-49, and ≥55 years, respectively, relative to those with menopause at age 50-54 years. The HR per SD younger age at menopause was 1.08 (1.02-1.14). Similarly, a shorter reproductive life span was associated with a higher diabetes risk (HR per SD lower reproductive life span 1.06 [1.01-1.12]). No effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, or smoking was observed (P interaction all > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Early menopause is associated with a greater risk of type 2 diabetes.

Sex differences in the association between serum ferritin and fasting glucose in type 2 diabetes among South Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, and ethnic Dutch: the population-based SUNSET study

OBJECTIVE

Moderately elevated iron stores below the levels commonly associated with hemochromatosis have been implicated in the etiology of diabetes. Studies suggest that iron status (measured by serum ferritin) differs significantly according to sex, but inconsistent findings have been reported. Our aim is to test the association between serum ferritin and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and fasting glucose concentrations in a population-based, multiethnic, cross-sectional study including men and women of African Surinamese, South Asian Surinamese, and ethnic Dutch origin.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed data on 508 ethnic Dutch, 597 African Surinamese, and 339 South Asian Surinamese aged 35-60 years. Type 2 diabetes was defined as a fasting plasma glucose level ≥7.0 mmol/L or a self-reported diagnosis.

RESULTS

Serum ferritin was positively associated with type 2 diabetes and fasting glucose, but differences in the associations according to sex were observed. Serum ferritin concentration was positively associated with type 2 diabetes among women in all ethnic groups (odds ratio [OR] ethnic Dutch: 1.07 [95% CI 1.01-1.13]; OR South Asian Surinamese: 1.05 [1.00-1.10]; OR African Surinamese: 1.05 [1.01-1.10]), but not among men. Serum ferritin was also more strongly associated with fasting glucose in women than in men. Moreover, the magnitude of sex differences in the association between serum ferritin and fasting glucose, but not type 2 diabetes, was more pronounced in the African Surinamese group than in the other ethnic groups (P for interaction ≤0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a positive association between serum ferritin and type 2 diabetes and fasting glucose in our multiethnic population, which appeared stronger among women than men. Further evaluation of the variation in sex differences between ethnic groups is warranted, particularly among the African Surinamese, to understand the mechanisms behind these sex differences.

Self-rated health and type 2 diabetes risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct study: a case-cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between self-rated health and risk of type 2 diabetes and whether the strength of this association is consistent across five European centres.

DESIGN

Population-based prospective case-cohort study.

SETTING

Enrolment took place between 1992 and 2000 in five European centres (Bilthoven, Cambridge, Heidelberg, Potsdam and Umeå).

PARTICIPANTS

Self-rated health was assessed by a baseline questionnaire in 3399 incident type 2 diabetic case participants and a centre-stratified subcohort of 4619 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct study which was drawn from a total cohort of 340 234 participants in the EPIC.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to estimate centre-specific HRs and 95% CIs for incident type 2 diabetes controlling for age, sex, centre, education, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption, energy intake, physical activity and hypertension. The centre-specific HRs were pooled across centres by random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Low self-rated health was associated with a higher hazard of type 2 diabetes after adjusting for age and sex (pooled HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.88). After additional adjustment for health-related variables including BMI, the association was attenuated but remained statistically significant (pooled HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.53). I(2) index for heterogeneity across centres was 13.3% (p=0.33).

CONCLUSIONS

Low self-rated health was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The association could be only partly explained by other health-related variables, of which obesity was the strongest. We found no indication of heterogeneity in the association between self-rated health and type 2 diabetes mellitus across the European centres.

[Validity of risk scores to predict type 2 diabetes in the Dutch population]

OBJECTIVE

To validate risk scores to predict occurrence of type 2 diabetes in the Dutch population.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Twelve basic risk scores and 13 extensive risk scores with biomarkers were used to predict the risk of developing type 2 diabetes during 7.5 years in a prospective cohort of 38,379 Dutch men and women. Occurrence of diabetes was documented through repeated questionnaires and validated against medical records. The capacity of the risk scores to correctly identify those at high risk of developing diabetes was determined using the C-statistic. The capacity of the risk scores to correctly quantify the absolute risk of diabetes was determined by testing the difference between the predicted and observed risk in the population.

RESULTS

The capacity of basic risk scores to identify those at high risk of diabetes was good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.74 (95%-CI: 0.73-0.75) to 0.84 (0.82-0.85). The extended risk scores were very capable of identifying those at high risk of diabetes, with C-statistics ranging from 0.81 (0.80-0.83) to 0.93 (0.92-0.94). Most risk scores, however, were unable to correctly quantify the absolute risk of diabetes; the risk was usually overestimated. Only the basic KORA model correctly quantified the risk in this Dutch population.

CONCLUSION

In the Dutch population, risk scores to predict the occurrence of type 2 diabetes are very capable of identifying those at high risk. Extension with biomarkers improves this capacity. Quantification of the absolute risk of diabetes was insufficient in most risk scores.

Dietary glycemic index, glycemic load, and digestible carbohydrate intake are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in eight European countries

The association of glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) with the risk of type 2 diabetes remains unclear. We investigated associations of dietary GI, GL, and digestible carbohydrate with incident type 2 diabetes. We performed a case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study, including a random subcohort (n = 16,835) and incident type 2 diabetes cases (n = 12,403). The median follow-up time was 12 y. Baseline dietary intakes were assessed using country-specific dietary questionnaires. Country-specific HR were calculated and pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Dietary GI, GL, and digestible carbohydrate in the subcohort were (mean ± SD) 56 ± 4, 127 ± 23, and 226 ± 36 g/d, respectively. After adjustment for confounders, GI and GL were not associated with incident diabetes [HR highest vs. lowest quartile (HR(Q4)) for GI: 1.05 (95% CI = 0.96, 1.16); HR(Q4) for GL: 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95, 1.20)]. Digestible carbohydrate intake was not associated with incident diabetes [HR(Q4): 0.98 (95% CI = 0.86, 1.10)]. In additional analyses, we found that discrepancies in the GI value assignment to foods possibly explain differences in GI associations with diabetes within the same study population. In conclusion, an expansion of the GI tables and systematic GI value assignment to foods may be needed to improve the validity of GI values derived in such studies, after which GI associations may need reevaluation. Our study shows that digestible carbohydrate intake is not associated with diabetes risk and suggests that diabetes risk with high-GI and -GL diets may be more modest than initial studies suggested.

Plasma uric acid is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes independent of diet and metabolic risk factors

Current evidence suggests a direct association of uric acid with diabetes risk, but it is still unclear whether this is independent of risk factors such as obesity and diet. We aimed to investigate whether plasma uric acid concentrations are independently associated with incident type 2 diabetes and to investigate the role of a uric acid-related dietary pattern in this association. We used a case-cohort nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands study. The study included 2318 subcohort members and 845 incident diabetes cases, with a mean follow-up of 10 y. At baseline, blood samples were taken and diet was assessed using a validated FFQ. A uric acid-related dietary pattern was derived with reduced rank regression. Diabetes was mainly self-reported and verified against general practitioner records. Plasma uric acid was (mean ± SD) 231 ± 54.6 μmol/L in the subcohort. After adjustment for established diabetes risk factors such as age, the HR (highest vs. lowest quartile of uric acid) for diabetes was 4.36 (95% CI: 3.22, 5.90). Further adjustment for adiposity attenuated the HR to 1.86 (95% CI: 1.32, 2.62). Additional adjustment for hypertension and biochemical markers, such as TG, slightly attenuated the association [HR = 1.43 (95% CI: 0.97, 2.10)]. A uric acid-related dietary pattern did not confound the association. In conclusion, this study supports that high uric acid concentrations are associated with increased diabetes risk, although a large part of the association can be explained by the degree of adiposity.

Liver function tests and risk prediction of incident type 2 diabetes: evaluation in two independent cohorts

Background

Liver function tests might predict the risk of type 2 diabetes. An independent study evaluating utility of these markers compared with an existing prediction model is yet lacking.

Methods and Findings

We performed a case-cohort study, including random subcohort (6.5%) from 38,379 participants with 924 incident diabetes cases (the Dutch contribution to the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition, EPIC-NL, the Netherlands), and another population-based cohort study including 7,952 participants with 503 incident cases (the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease, PREVEND, Groningen, the Netherlands). We examined predictive value of combination of the Liver function tests (gamma-glutamyltransferase, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and albumin) above validated models for 7.5-year risk of diabetes (the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg, the KORA study). Basic model includes age, sex, BMI, smoking, hypertension and parental diabetes. Clinical models additionally include glucose and uric acid (model1) and HbA1c (model2). In both studies, addition of Liver function tests to the basic model improved the prediction (C-statistic by∼0.020; NRI by∼9.0%; P<0.001). In the EPIC-NL case-cohort study, addition to clinical model1 resulted in statistically significant improvement in the overall population (C-statistic = +0.009; P<0.001; NRI = 8.8%; P<0.001), while addition to clinical model 2 yielded marginal improvement limited to men (C-statistic = +0.007; P = 0.06; NRI = 3.3%; P = 0.04). In the PREVEND cohort study, addition to clinical model 1 resulted in significant improvement in the overall population (C-statistic change = 0.008; P = 0.003; NRI = 3.6%; P = 0.03), with largest improvement in men (C-statistic change = 0.013; P = 0.01; NRI = 5.4%; P = 0.04). In PREVEND, improvement compared to clinical model 2 could not be tested because of lack of HbA1c data.

Conclusions

Liver function tests modestly improve prediction for medium-term risk of incident diabetes above basic and extended clinical prediction models, only if no HbA1c is incorporated. If data on HbA1c are available, Liver function tests have little incremental predictive value, although a small benefit may be present in men.

Prediction models for risk of developing type 2 diabetes: systematic literature search and independent external validation study

OBJECTIVE

To identify existing prediction models for the risk of development of type 2 diabetes and to externally validate them in a large independent cohort.

DATA SOURCES

Systematic search of English, German, and Dutch literature in PubMed until February 2011 to identify prediction models for diabetes.

DESIGN

Performance of the models was assessed in terms of discrimination (C statistic) and calibration (calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test).The validation study was a prospective cohort study, with a case cohort study in a random subcohort.

SETTING

Models were applied to the Dutch cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort study (EPIC-NL).

PARTICIPANTS

38,379 people aged 20-70 with no diabetes at baseline, 2506 of whom made up the random subcohort.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Incident type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

The review identified 16 studies containing 25 prediction models. We considered 12 models as basic because they were based on variables that can be assessed non-invasively and 13 models as extended because they additionally included conventional biomarkers such as glucose concentration. During a median follow-up of 10.2 years there were 924 cases in the full EPIC-NL cohort and 79 in the random subcohort. The C statistic for the basic models ranged from 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.75) to 0.84 (0.82 to 0.85) for risk at 7.5 years. For prediction models including biomarkers the C statistic ranged from 0.81 (0.80 to 0.83) to 0.93 (0.92 to 0.94). Most prediction models overestimated the observed risk of diabetes, particularly at higher observed risks. After adjustment for differences in incidence of diabetes, calibration improved considerably.

CONCLUSIONS

Most basic prediction models can identify people at high risk of developing diabetes in a time frame of five to 10 years. Models including biomarkers classified cases slightly better than basic ones. Most models overestimated the actual risk of diabetes. Existing prediction models therefore perform well to identify those at high risk, but cannot sufficiently quantify actual risk of future diabetes.

Parental history of type 2 diabetes and cardiometabolic biomarkers in offspring

BACKGROUND

Parental history of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with cardiometabolic risk. We aimed to investigate the associations of parental history of T2D with cardiometabolic biomarkers and to subsequently investigate to what extent these putative associations were explained by modifiable factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cross-sectionally, we analysed a random sample of 2001 participants without T2D (20-70 years) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL). Plasma levels of 12 biomarkers - total, HDL and LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, HbA1c, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), asparate aminotransferase (AST), albumin, uric acid, creatinine and high-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) - were assessed according to categories of parental history of T2D.

RESULTS

In age and sex-adjusted analyses, offspring with parental history of T2D had significantly higher ALT [β = 0·074; 95% confidence interval (95%CI), 0·023-0·126] and AST levels (β = 0·033; 95%CI, 0·001 to 0·066) and a trend towards higher HbA1c (β = 0·011; 95%CI, -0·001 to 0·024) and GGT (β = 0·049; 95%CI, -0·015 to 0·112) levels. Adjustment for diet, smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity and educational level modestly attenuated the magnitude of these associations, but they remained significant for ALT and borderline significant for AST. After further adjustment for adiposity, additional attenuation was observed, but the association remained significant for ALT. Only maternal history of T2D was associated with higher ALT levels. T2D in both parents was associated with increased levels of all liver enzymes, but the association remained significant for GGT after adjustment for adiposity. Overall, the modifiable factors explained 21·2-45·4% of these associations. The contribution of adiposity was 18·2-38·9%.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that parental history of T2D was associated with higher non-fasting levels of liver enzymes in a general population without T2D. Adiposity substantially contributed to these associations. The contribution of diet and lifestyle factors was modest.

The amount and type of dairy product intake and incident type 2 diabetes: results from the EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND

Dairy product intake may be inversely associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, but the evidence is inconclusive for total dairy products and sparse for types of dairy products.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to investigate the prospective association of total dairy products and different dairy subtypes with incidence of diabetes in populations with marked variation of intake of these food groups.

DESIGN

A nested case-cohort within 8 European countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study (n = 340,234; 3.99 million person-years of follow-up) included a random subcohort (n = 16,835) and incident diabetes cases (n = 12,403). Baseline dairy product intake was assessed by using dietary questionnaires. Country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression HRs were calculated and pooled by using a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Intake of total dairy products was not associated with diabetes (HR for the comparison of the highest with the lowest quintile of total dairy products: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.34; P-trend = 0.92) in an analysis adjusted for age, sex, BMI, diabetes risk factors, education, and dietary factors. Of the dairy subtypes, cheese intake tended to have an inverse association with diabetes (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.02; P-trend = 0.01), and a higher combined intake of fermented dairy products (cheese, yogurt, and thick fermented milk) was inversely associated with diabetes (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.99; P-trend = 0.02) in adjusted analyses that compared extreme quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

This large prospective study found no association between total dairy product intake and diabetes risk. An inverse association of cheese intake and combined fermented dairy product intake with diabetes is suggested, which merits further study.

Association between FTO variant and change in body weight and its interaction with dietary factors: the DiOGenes study

Although FTO is an established obesity-susceptibility locus, it remains unknown whether it influences weight change in adult life and whether diet attenuates this association. Therefore, we investigated the association of FTO-rs9939609 with changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) during 6.8 years follow-up in a large-scale prospective study and examined whether these associations were modified by dietary energy percentage from fat, protein, carbohydrate, or glycemic index (GI). This study comprised data from five countries of European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and was designed as a case-cohort study for weight gain. Analyses included 11,091 individuals, of whom 5,584 were cases (age (SD), 47.6 (7.5) years), defined as those with the greatest unexplained annual weight gain during follow-up and 5,507 were noncases (48.0 (7.3) years), who were compared in our case-noncase (CNC) analyses. Furthermore, 6,566 individuals (47.9 (7.3) years) selected from the total sample (all noncases and 1,059 cases) formed the random subcohort (RSC), used for continuous trait analyses. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in the models. In the RSC-analyses, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with BMI (β (SE), 0.17 (0.08) kg·m(-2)/allele; P = 0.034) and WC (0.47 (0.21) cm/allele; P = 0.026) at baseline, but not with weight change (5.55 (12.5) g·year(-1)/allele; P = 0.66) during follow up. In the CNC-analysis, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with increased risk of being a weight-gainer (OR: 1.1; P = 0.045). We observed no interaction between FTO-rs9939609 and dietary fat, protein and carbohydrate, and GI on BMI and WC at baseline or on change in weight and WC. FTO-rs9939609 is associated with BMI and WC at baseline, but association with weight gain is weak and only observed for extreme gain. Dietary factors did not influence the associations.

Dietary factors impact on the association between CTSS variants and obesity related traits

Background/Aims

Cathepsin S, a protein coded by the CTSS gene, is implicated in adipose tissue biology–this protein enhances adipose tissue development. Our hypothesis is that common variants in CTSS play a role in body weight regulation and in the development of obesity and that these effects are influenced by dietary factors–increased by high protein, glycemic index and energy diets.

Methods

Four tag SNPs (rs7511673, rs11576175, rs10888390 and rs1136774) were selected to capture all common variation in the CTSS region. Association between these four SNPs and several adiposity measurements (BMI, waist circumference, waist for given BMI and being a weight gainer–experiencing the greatest degree of unexplained annual weight gain during follow-up or not) given, where applicable, both as baseline values and gain during the study period (6–8 years) were tested in 11,091 European individuals (linear or logistic regression models). We also examined the interaction between the CTSS variants and dietary factors–energy density, protein content (in grams or in % of total energy intake) and glycemic index–on these four adiposity phenotypes.

Results

We found several associations between CTSS polymorphisms and anthropometric traits including baseline BMI (rs11576175 (SNP N°2), p = 0.02, β = −0.2446), and waist change over time (rs7511673 (SNP N°1), p = 0.01, β = −0.0433 and rs10888390 (SNP N°3), p = 0.04, β = −0.0342). In interaction with the percentage of proteins contained in the diet, rs11576175 (SNP N°2) was also associated with the risk of being a weight gainer (p_interaction = 0.01, OR = 1.0526)–the risk of being a weight gainer increased with the percentage of proteins contained in the diet.

Conclusion

CTSS variants seem to be nominally associated to obesity related traits and this association may be modified by dietary protein intake.

HbA1c measured in stored erythrocytes is positively linearly associated with mortality in individuals with diabetes mellitus

Introduction

Observational studies have shown that glycated haemoglobin (HbA_1c) is related to mortality, but the shape of the association is less clear. Furthermore, disease duration and medication may modify this association. This observational study explored the association between HbA_1c measured in stored erythrocytes and mortality. Secondly, it was assessed whether disease duration and medication use influenced the estimates or were independently associated with mortality.

Methods

Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition a cohort was analysed of 4,345 individuals with a confirmed diagnosis of diabetes at enrolment. HbA_1c was measured in blood samples stored up to 19 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models for all-cause mortality investigated HbA_1c in quartiles as well as per 1% increment, diabetes medication in seven categories of insulin and oral hypoglycaemic agents, and disease duration in quartiles.

Results

After a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 460 participants died. Higher HbA_1c was associated with higher mortality: Hazard Ratio for 1%-increase was 1.11 (95% CI 1.06, 1.17). This association was linear (P-nonlinearity =0.15) and persistent across categories of medication use, disease duration, and co-morbidities. Compared with metformin, other medication types were not associated with mortality. Longer disease duration was associated with mortality, but not after adjustment for HbA_1c and medication.

Conclusion

This prospective study showed that persons with lower HbA_1c had better survival than those with higher HbA_1c. The association was linear and independent of disease duration, type of medication use, and presence of co-morbidities. Any improvement of HbA_1c appears to be associated with reduced mortality risk.

Influence of dietary protein intake and glycemic index on the association between TCF7L2 HapA and weight gain

BACKGROUND

Genetic polymorphisms of transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) have been associated with type 2 diabetes and BMI.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to investigate whether TCF7L2 HapA is associated with weight development and whether such an association is modulated by protein intake or by the glycemic index (GI).

DESIGN

The investigation was based on prospective data from 5 cohort studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Weight change was followed up for a mean (±SD) of 6.8 ± 2.5 y. TCF7L2 rs7903146 and rs10885406 were successfully genotyped in 11,069 individuals and used to derive HapA. Multiple logistic and linear regression analysis was applied to test for the main effect of HapA and its interaction with dietary protein or GI. Analyses from the cohorts were combined by random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

HapA was associated neither with baseline BMI (0.03 ± 0.07 BMI units per allele; P = 0.6) nor with annual weight change (8.8 ± 11.7 g/y per allele; P = 0.5). However, a previously shown positive association between intake of protein, particularly of animal origin, and subsequent weight change in this population proved to be attenuated by TCF7L2 HapA (P-interaction = 0.01). We showed that weight gain becomes independent of protein intake with an increasing number of HapA alleles. Substitution of protein with either fat or carbohydrates showed the same effects. No interaction with GI was observed.

CONCLUSION

TCF7L2 HapA attenuates the positive association between animal protein intake and long-term body weight change in middle-aged Europeans but does not interact with the GI of the diet.

The prospective association between total and type of fish intake and type 2 diabetes in 8 European countries: EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic evidence of an association between fish intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is inconsistent and unresolved.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to examine the association between total and type of fish intake and T2D in 8 European countries.

DESIGN

This was a case-cohort study, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, 12,403 incident diabetes cases, and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. Habitual fish intake (lean fish, fatty fish, total fish, shellfish, and combined fish and shellfish) was assessed by country-specific dietary questionnaires. HRs were estimated in each country by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and pooled by using a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

No overall association was found between combined fish and shellfish intake and incident T2D per quartile (adjusted HR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.06; P-trend = 0.99). Total fish, lean fish, and shellfish intakes separately were also not associated with T2D, but fatty fish intake was weakly inversely associated with T2D: adjusted HR per quartile 0.97 (0.94, 1.00), with an HR of 0.84 (0.70, 1.01), 0.85 (0.76, 0.95), and 0.87 (0.78, 0.97) for a comparison of the second, third, and fourth quartiles with the lowest quartile of intake, respectively (P-trend = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that lean fish, total fish, and shellfish intakes are not associated with incident diabetes but that fatty fish intake may be weakly inversely associated. Replication of these findings in other populations and investigation of the mechanisms underlying these associations are warranted. Meanwhile, current public health recommendations on fish intake should remain unchanged.

Common variants in the type 2 diabetes KCNQ1 gene are associated with impairments in insulin secretion during hyperglycaemic glucose clamp

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies in Japanese populations recently identified common variants in the KCNQ1 gene to be associated with type 2 diabetes. We examined the association of these variants within KCNQ1 with type 2 diabetes in a Dutch population, investigated their effects on insulin secretion and metabolic traits and on the risk of developing complications in type 2 diabetes patients.

METHODOLOGY

The KCNQ1 variants rs151290, rs2237892, and rs2237895 were genotyped in a total of 4620 type 2 diabetes patients and 5285 healthy controls from the Netherlands. Data on macrovascular complications, nephropathy and retinopathy were available in a subset of diabetic patients. Association between genotype and insulin secretion/action was assessed in the additional sample of 335 individuals who underwent a hyperglycaemic clamp.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We found that all the genotyped KCNQ1 variants were significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in our Dutch population, and the association of rs151290 was the strongest (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.35, p = 0.002). The risk C-allele of rs151290 was nominally associated with reduced first-phase glucose-stimulated insulin secretion, while the non-risk T-allele of rs2237892 was significantly correlated with increased second-phase glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (p = 0.025 and 0.0016, respectively). In addition, the risk C-allele of rs2237892 was associated with higher LDL and total cholesterol levels (p = 0.015 and 0.003, respectively). We found no evidence for an association of KCNQ1 with diabetic complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Common variants in the KCNQ1 gene are associated with type 2 diabetes in a Dutch population, which can be explained at least in part by an effect on insulin secretion. Furthermore, our data suggest that KCNQ1 is also associated with lipid metabolism.

Gamma-glutamyltransferase, cardiovascular disease and mortality in individuals with diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Increased plasma activity of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and mortality in the general population. We investigated the association between GGT, CVD and mortality in individuals with diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

Data used were from 1280 participants, aged 35-70 years, with a confirmed diagnosis of diabetes mellitus in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Potsdam (Germany), Bilthoven and Utrecht (the Netherlands). Multivariate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for CVD (non-fatal and fatal events) and overall mortality were estimated using sex-specific quartiles of GGT.

RESULTS

After 8.2 years follow-up, 108 incident CVD cases and 84 deaths were observed. Participants with high GGT activity had an increased mortality risk: HR in the highest quartile was 3.96 (95% CI 1.74, 9.00). This association was in particular present in former and current smokers, younger persons and those with a higher waist-height ratio and alcohol consumption. No associations were observed for non-fatal CVD and non-fatal and fatal CVD events combined.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher GGT plasma activity is associated with increased all-cause mortality in individuals with diabetes.

Trend in obesity prevalence in European adult cohort populations during follow-up since 1996 and their predictions to 2015

Objective

To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations.

Methods

Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction.

Results

During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R² = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R² = 0.99).

Conclusion

Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower.

Dietary glycemic load and glycemic index and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke in Dutch men and women: the EPIC-MORGEN study

BACKGROUND

The associations of glycemic load (GL) and glycemic index (GI) with the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are not well-established, particularly in men, and may be modified by gender.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether high dietary GL and GI increase the risk of CVD in men and women.

METHODS

A large prospective cohort study (EPIC-MORGEN) was conducted within the general Dutch population among 8,855 men and 10,753 women, aged 21-64 years at baseline (1993-1997) and free of diabetes and CVD. Dietary intake was assessed with a validated food-frequency questionnaire and GI and GL were calculated using Foster-Powell's international table of GI. Information on morbidity and mortality was obtained through linkage with national registries. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, while adjusting for age, CVD risk factors, and dietary factors.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 11.9 years, 581 CHD cases and 120 stroke cases occurred among men, and 300 CHD cases and 109 stroke cases occurred among women. In men, GL was associated with an increased CHD risk (adjusted HR per SD increase, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.02-1.35]), while no significant association was found in women (1.09 [0.89-1.33]). GI was not associated with CHD risk in both genders, while it was associated with increased stroke risk in men (1.27 [1.02-1.58]) but not in women (0.96 [0.75-1.22]). Similarly, total carbohydrate intake and starch intake were associated with a higher CHD risk in men (1.23 [1.04-1.46]; and 1.24 [1.07-1.45]), but not in women.

CONCLUSION

Among men, high GL and GI, and high carbohydrate and starch intake, were associated with increased risk of CVD.

Food composition of the diet in relation to changes in waist circumference adjusted for body mass index

Background

Dietary factors such as low energy density and low glycemic index were associated with a lower gain in abdominal adiposity. A better understanding of which food groups/items contribute to these associations is necessary.

Objective

To ascertain the association of food groups/items consumption on prospective annual changes in “waist circumference for a given BMI” (WC_BMI), a proxy for abdominal adiposity.

Design

We analyzed data from 48,631 men and women from 5 countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Anthropometric measurements were obtained at baseline and after a median follow-up time of 5.5 years. WC_BMI was defined as the residuals of waist circumference regressed on BMI, and annual change in WC_BMI (ΔWC_BMI, cm/y) was defined as the difference between residuals at follow-up and baseline, divided by follow-up time. The association between food groups/items and ΔWC_BMI was modelled using centre-specific adjusted linear regression, and random-effects meta-analyses to obtain pooled estimates.

Results

Higher fruit and dairy products consumption was associated with a lower gain in WC_BMI whereas the consumption of white bread, processed meat, margarine, and soft drinks was positively associated with ΔWC_BMI. When these six food groups/items were analyzed in combination using a summary score, those in the highest quartile of the score – indicating a more favourable dietary pattern –showed a ΔWC_BMI of −0.11 (95% CI −0.09 to −0.14) cm/y compared to those in the lowest quartile.

Conclusion

A dietary pattern high in fruit and dairy and low in white bread, processed meat, margarine, and soft drinks may help to prevent abdominal fat accumulation.

No consistent association between consumption of energy-dense snack foods and annual weight and waist circumference changes in Dutch adults

BACKGROUND

There is conflicting evidence regarding an association between the consumption of energy-dense snack (EDS) foods and the development of overweight.

OBJECTIVE

In the current study, we examined whether there was an association between the intake of EDS foods and annual weight and waist circumference changes in normal-weight and overweight Dutch adults.

DESIGN

The study population included 9383 men and women from the MORGEN-EPIC (Monitoring Project on Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases in the Netherlands-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study, which is a population-based cohort study in 3 towns in the Netherlands (Amsterdam, Maastricht, and Doetinchem), who had a body mass index (in kg/m(2)) <30 and who were not dieting. Participants were enrolled between 1993 and 1997 and followed for an average of 8.1 y (Amsterdam and Maastricht: 9.9 y; Doetinchem: 4.9 y). Intake of EDS foods (sweets, cakes and pastries, and savory snacks) was assessed at baseline by using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Multivariate linear and multinomial logistic regression models were applied and stratified by center to examine the association between energy from EDS foods (kcal) and annual weight and waist circumference changes.

RESULTS

The mean (±SD) daily energy intake from EDS foods was 294 ± 192 kcal. In Amsterdam and Maastricht, the annual weight change was 168 ± 572 g/y, whereas in Doetinchem, the annual weight change was 444 ± 816 g/y. In the multivariate regression analysis adjusted for follow-up duration and anthropometric, dietary, and lifestyle factors, there was some, but inconsistent, evidence of an association of EDS-food consumption with annual weight change.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides some, but inconsistent, evidence that consumption of EDS foods is positively associated with an increase in annual weight in normal- to overweight Dutch adults.

Associations between general and abdominal adiposity and mortality in individuals with diabetes mellitus

Individuals with diabetes mellitus are advised to achieve a healthy weight to prevent complications. However, fat mass distribution has hardly been investigated as a risk factor for diabetes complications. The authors studied associations between body mass index, waist circumference, waist/hip ratio, and waist/height ratio and mortality among individuals with diabetes mellitus. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, a subcohort was defined as 5,435 individuals with a confirmed self-report of diabetes mellitus at baseline in 1992-2000. Participants were aged 57.3 (standard deviation, 6.3) years, 54% were men, the median diabetes duration was 4.6 (interquartile range, 2.0-9.8) years, and 22% of the participants used insulin. Body mass index, as indicator of general obesity, was not associated with higher mortality, whereas all measurements of abdominal obesity showed a positive association. Associations generally were slightly weaker in women. The strongest association was observed for waist/height ratio: In the fifth quintile, the hazard rate ratio was 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.33, 2.65) for men and 2.46 (95% confidence interval: 1.46, 4.14) for women. Measurements of abdominal, but not general, adiposity were associated with higher mortality in diabetic individuals. The waist/height ratio showed the strongest association. Respective indicators might be investigated in risk prediction models.