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Pergl J, Pyšek P, Bacher S, Essl F, Genovesi P, Harrower CA, Hulme PE, Jeschke JE, Kenis M, Kühn I, Perglová I, Rabitsch W, Roques A, Roy DB, Roy HE, Vilà M, Winter M, Nentwig W. Troubling travellers: are ecologically harmful alien species associated with particular introduction pathways? NEOBIOTA 2017. [DOI: 10.3897/neobiota.32.10199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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Dyer RJ, Gillings S, Pywell RF, Fox R, Roy DB, Oliver TH. Developing a biodiversity-based indicator for large-scale environmental assessment: a case study of proposed shale gas extraction sites in Britain. J Appl Ecol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12784] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Boakes EH, Gliozzo G, Seymour V, Harvey M, Smith C, Roy DB, Haklay M. Patterns of contribution to citizen science biodiversity projects increase understanding of volunteers' recording behaviour. Sci Rep 2016; 6:33051. [PMID: 27619155 PMCID: PMC5020317 DOI: 10.1038/srep33051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2016] [Accepted: 08/18/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The often opportunistic nature of biological recording via citizen science leads to taxonomic, spatial and temporal biases which add uncertainty to biodiversity estimates. However, such biases may also give valuable insight into volunteers' recording behaviour. Using Greater London as a case-study we examined the composition of three citizen science datasets - from Greenspace Information for Greater London CIC, iSpot and iRecord - with respect to recorder contribution and spatial and taxonomic biases, i.e. when, where and what volunteers record. We found most volunteers contributed few records and were active for just one day. Each dataset had its own taxonomic and spatial signature suggesting that volunteers' personal recording preferences may attract them towards particular schemes. There were also patterns across datasets: species' abundance and ease of identification were positively associated with number of records, as was plant height. We found clear hotspots of recording activity, the 10 most popular sites containing open water. We note that biases are accrued as part of the recording process (e.g. species' detectability) as well as from volunteer preferences. An increased understanding of volunteer behaviour gained from analysing the composition of records could thus enhance the fit between volunteers' interests and the needs of scientific projects.
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Woodcock BA, Isaac NJB, Bullock JM, Roy DB, Garthwaite DG, Crowe A, Pywell RF. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England. Nat Commun 2016; 7:12459. [PMID: 27529661 PMCID: PMC4990702 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 235] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2015] [Accepted: 07/05/2016] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. Neonicotinoid as insecticide on oilseed rape can reduce bee colony density, but its effect at a large geographical scale is unclear. This study describes 18-year long wild bee tracking data in England and show neonicotinoid use is correlated with wild bee population declines at real landscape scales.
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Dennis EB, Morgan BJT, Freeman SN, Brereton TM, Roy DB. A generalized abundance index for seasonal invertebrates. Biometrics 2016; 72:1305-1314. [PMID: 27003561 DOI: 10.1111/biom.12506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2015] [Revised: 11/01/2015] [Accepted: 01/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
At a time of climate change and major loss of biodiversity, it is important to have efficient tools for monitoring populations. In this context, animal abundance indices play an important rôle. In producing indices for invertebrates, it is important to account for variation in counts within seasons. Two new methods for describing seasonal variation in invertebrate counts have recently been proposed; one is nonparametric, using generalized additive models, and the other is parametric, based on stopover models. We present a novel generalized abundance index which encompasses both parametric and nonparametric approaches. It is extremely efficient to compute this index due to the use of concentrated likelihood techniques. This has particular relevance for the analysis of data from long-term extensive monitoring schemes with records for many species and sites, for which existing modeling techniques can be prohibitively time consuming. Performance of the index is demonstrated by several applications to UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme data. We demonstrate the potential for new insights into both phenology and spatial variation in seasonal patterns from parametric modeling and the incorporation of covariate dependence, which is relevant for both monitoring and conservation. Associated R code is available on the journal website.
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Oliver TH, Heard MS, Isaac NJB, Roy DB, Procter D, Eigenbrod F, Freckleton R, Hector A, Orme CDL, Petchey OL, Proença V, Raffaelli D, Blake Suttle K, Mace GM, Martín-López B, Woodcock BA, Bullock JM. A Synthesis is Emerging between Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function and Ecological Resilience Research: Reply to Mori. Trends Ecol Evol 2016; 31:89-92. [PMID: 26774554 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2015.12.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2015] [Revised: 12/03/2015] [Accepted: 12/04/2015] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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Ovaskainen O, Roy DB, Fox R, Anderson BJ. Uncovering hidden spatial structure in species communities with spatially explicit joint species distribution models. Methods Ecol Evol 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 135] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Schmucki R, Pe'er G, Roy DB, Stefanescu C, Van Swaay CA, Oliver TH, Kuussaari M, Van Strien AJ, Ries L, Settele J, Musche M, Carnicer J, Schweiger O, Brereton TM, Harpke A, Heliölä J, Kühn E, Julliard R. A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes. J Appl Ecol 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Oliver TH, Heard MS, Isaac NJB, Roy DB, Procter D, Eigenbrod F, Freckleton R, Hector A, Orme CDL, Petchey OL, Proença V, Raffaelli D, Suttle KB, Mace GM, Martín-López B, Woodcock BA, Bullock JM. Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions. Trends Ecol Evol 2015; 30:673-684. [PMID: 26437633 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2015.08.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 434] [Impact Index Per Article: 48.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2015] [Revised: 08/19/2015] [Accepted: 08/20/2015] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their 'resilience') is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin.
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Roy DB, Oliver TH, Botham MS, Beckmann B, Brereton T, Dennis RLH, Harrower C, Phillimore AB, Thomas JA. Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2015; 21:3313-22. [PMID: 26390228 PMCID: PMC4744750 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2014] [Accepted: 01/30/2015] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.
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Dennis EB, Morgan BJT, Freeman SN, Roy DB, Brereton T. Dynamic Models for Longitudinal Butterfly Data. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s13253-015-0216-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
We present models which provide succinct descriptions of longitudinal seasonal insect count data. This approach produces, for the first time, estimates of the key parameters of brood productivities. It may be applied to univoltine and bivoltine species. For the latter, the productivities of each brood are estimated separately, which results in new indices indicating the contributions from different generations. The models are based on discrete distributions, with expectations that reflect the underlying nature of seasonal data. Productivities are included in a deterministic, auto-regressive manner, making the data from each brood a function of those in the previous brood. A concentrated likelihood results in appreciable efficiency gains. Both phenomenological and mechanistic models are used, including weather and site-specific covariates. Illustrations are provided using data from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, however the approach is perfectly general. Consistent associations are found when estimates of productivity are regressed on northing and temperature. For instance, for univoltine species productivity is usually lower following milder winters, and mean emergence times of adults for all species have become earlier over time, due to climate change. The predictions of fitted dynamic models have the potential to improve the understanding of fundamental demographic processes. This is important for insects such as UK butterflies, many species of which are in decline. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
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Cheng E, Roy DB, Magro CM. A case of acanthosis nigricans coexisting with mycosis fungoides. Dermatol Online J 2015; 21:13030/qt3sw2t3b8. [PMID: 26436975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2015] [Accepted: 07/15/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Acanthosis nigricans maligna (ANM) is a paraneoplastic phenomenon most commonly associated with visceral adenocarcinoma, in particular, gastric adenocarcinoma. Clinically, AMN is characterized by rapidly progressive symmetrical skin thickening and hyperpigmentation of the intertriginous areas with peripheral acrochorda. The diagnosis is made by a detailed medical work-up for occult malignancies with particular emphasis on endocrinological diseases. We report a 67-year-old man that presented clinically with acanthosis nigricans, in which a subsequent diagnosis of mycosis fungoides was made.
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Beckmann BC, Purse BV, Roy DB, Roy HE, Sutton PG, Thomas CD. Two Species with an Unusual Combination of Traits Dominate Responses of British Grasshoppers and Crickets to Environmental Change. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0130488. [PMID: 26110844 PMCID: PMC4482502 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0130488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2015] [Accepted: 05/19/2015] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
There are large variations in the responses of species to the environmental changes of recent decades, heightening interest in whether their traits may explain inter-specific differences in range expansions and contractions. Using a long-term distributional dataset, we calculated range changes of grasshoppers and crickets in Britain between the 1980s and the 2000s and assessed whether their traits (resource use, life history, dispersal ability, geographic location) explain relative performance of different species. Our analysis showed large changes in the distributions of some species, and we found a positive relationship between three traits and range change: ranges tended to increase for habitat generalists, species that oviposit in the vegetation above ground, and for those with a southerly distribution. These findings accord well with the nature of environmental changes over this period (climatic warming; reductions in the diversity and increases in the height of vegetation). However, the trait effects applied mainly to just two species, Conocephalus discolor and Metrioptera roeselii, which had shown the greatest range increases. Once they were omitted from the analysis, trait effects were no longer statistically significant. Previous studies on these two species emphasised wing-length dimorphism as the key to their success, resulting in a high phenotypic plasticity of dispersal and evolutionary-ecological feedback at their expanding range margins. This, combined with our results, suggests that an unusual combination of traits have enabled these two species to undertake extremely rapid responses to recent environmental changes. The fact that our results are dominated by two species only became apparent through cautious testing of the results’ robustness, not through standard statistical checks. We conclude that trait-based analyses may contribute to the assessment of species responses to environmental change and provide insights into underlying mechanisms, but results need to be interpreted with caution and may have limited predictive power.
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Sutherland WJ, Roy DB, Amano T. An agenda for the future of biological recording for ecological monitoring and citizen science. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
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Pocock MJO, Roy HE, Preston CD, Roy DB. The Biological Records Centre: a pioneer of citizen science. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 121] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
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Pescott OL, Walker KJ, Pocock MJO, Jitlal M, Outhwaite CL, Cheffings CM, Harris F, Roy DB. Ecological monitoring with citizen science: the design and implementation of schemes for recording plants in Britain and Ireland. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Pocock MJO, Newson SE, Henderson IG, Peyton J, Sutherland WJ, Noble DG, Ball SG, Beckmann BC, Biggs J, Brereton T, Bullock DJ, Buckland ST, Edwards M, Eaton MA, Harvey MC, Hill MO, Horlock M, Hubble DS, Julian AM, Mackey EC, Mann DJ, Marshall MJ, Medlock JM, O'Mahony EM, Pacheco M, Porter K, Prentice S, Procter DA, Roy HE, Southway SE, Shortall CR, Stewart AJA, Wembridge DE, Wright MA, Roy DB. Developing and enhancing biodiversity monitoring programmes: a collaborative assessment of priorities. J Appl Ecol 2015; 52:686-695. [PMID: 27642189 PMCID: PMC5008152 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2014] [Accepted: 03/05/2015] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized.We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa.We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes.People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes.
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Stewart AJA, Bantock TM, Beckmann BC, Botham MS, Hubble D, Roy DB. The role of ecological interactions in determining species ranges and range changes. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Maes D, Isaac NJB, Harrower CA, Collen B, van Strien AJ, Roy DB. The use of opportunistic data for IUCN Red List assessments. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Chapman DS, Bell S, Helfer S, Roy DB. Unbiased inference of plant flowering phenology from biological recording data. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Gillingham PK, Bradbury RB, Roy DB, Anderson BJ, Baxter JM, Bourn NAD, Crick HQP, Findon RA, Fox R, Franco A, Hill JK, Hodgson JA, Holt AR, Morecroft MD, O'Hanlon NJ, Oliver TH, Pearce-Higgins JW, Procter DA, Thomas JA, Walker KJ, Walmsley CA, Wilson RJ, Thomas CD. The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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49
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Cheng E, Roy DB, Magro CM. A case of acanthosis nigricans coexisting with mycosis fungoides. Dermatol Online J 2015. [DOI: 10.5070/d3217028120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
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Isaac NJB, Strien AJ, August TA, Zeeuw MP, Roy DB. Statistics for citizen science: extracting signals of change from noisy ecological data. Methods Ecol Evol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 310] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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